Consequences of climate change

p1t1o · Postby **p1t1o** » Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:34 am UTC

Help me out here:

I want to be able to state the disadvantages of uncontrolled anthropogenic CO2 production.

Im not here to debate whether or not it is happening.

There are a LOT of sources saying this will happen, that will happen, this wont happen etc. but I have a hard time judging which ones are reliable sources.

What are the major, most substantiated consequences of continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases? Just the bullet points, I dont need to be given full scientific analyses.

Pretend I am scientifically competent, open minded and dont know anything about what might change about the climate - why should I stop burning coal?

***
One camp says many species will become extinct due to rapid changes in the environment and habitats.
Another camp says "SO what? Extinctions occur all the time."
One camp says environmental changes will wreak havoc on global food production.
Another camp says increased atmospheric CO2 will *increase* global food production.
One camp says global population redistribution due to changes in climate will cause havoc.
Another camp says more of the planet will become habitable if the temperature rises.
One camp says the weather will become generally more unpredictable and severe.
Another camp says "So what? We have bad weather now, it wont get so bad."
etc.

***
So whilst I am firmly in the camp of "Even if the outcomes are not certain, it sure does seem like a good idea to limit the production of toxic gases, especially when they mess with the weather, which is eminently unpredictable and powerful. Probably shouldnt mess with it." Im still not sure what the most powerful points are when discussing whether or not we should care about anthropogenic climate change.

I know we should, but I'd like some points to have in my pocket that cant just be countered with the simple opposite or with "So what?".

Is it a case of we "should" reduce anthopogenic CO2 production, (to save the cuddly animals and preserve our precious status quo) or we "must"? (In order to preserve life, our species, our way-of-life and the maintainability of the habitat for our descendants)

speising · Postby **speising** » Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:06 pm UTC

p1t1o wrote:One camp says many species will become extinct due to rapid changes in the environment and habitats.
Another camp says "SO what? Extinctions occur all the time."

Better hope we or species we depend on aren't among them. Also any change in flora and fauna has huge economic consequences. (Think of dying bees, or pests migrating north)

p1t1o wrote:One camp says environmental changes will wreak havoc on global food production.
Another camp says increased atmospheric CO2 will *increase* global food production.

IDK, but in any case it will *shift* food production. Would you prefer a green Greenland and a desert in the former corn belt or rather the status quo?

p1t1o wrote:One camp says global population redistribution due to changes in climate will cause havoc.
Another camp says more of the planet will become habitable if the temperature rises.

Would you prefer a cozy Greenland or a dry New York?

p1t1o wrote:One camp says the weather will become generally more unpredictable and severe.Another camp says "So what? We have bad weather now, it wont get so bad."

"it wont get so bad." is denial, not an argument.
More storms/floods/hurricanes/droughts mean more dead people.

Liri · Postby **Liri** » Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:39 pm UTC

speising wrote:
p1t1o wrote:One camp says the weather will become generally more unpredictable and severe.Another camp says "So what? We have bad weather now, it wont get so bad."

"it wont get so bad." is denial, not an argument.
More storms/floods/hurricanes/droughts mean more dead people.

Also, a lot of people don't realize just how far weather prediction has come in the past few decades, and how reliant we are on that, from knowing what clothes to pack for a trip to more consequential things like crop maintenance or hurricane response.

Another biggie is that sea levels *will* rise and there *are* people living in areas that will be affected and they aren't just people living on tiny little atolls way out in the Pacific.

Xanthir · Postby **Xanthir** » Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:55 pm UTC

Yeah, we forget so quickly that before weather satellites, we could predict weather, like, a day in advance. None of this 10-day advance forecast bullshit you get now.

And yeah, uh, most big cities in the world are port cities, and most of them have a big chunk of their land only slightly above sea level. Sea level rise = mass migration as cities become unlivable, changing weather patterns = mass starvation as food belts are destroyed (and it takes a lot of time to set up new ones as they develop in previously cold or dry areas). Climate change is gonna be the death of billions, no hyperbole.

p1t1o · Postby **p1t1o** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:56 am UTC

So what Im hearing is:

Changes in food production will cause severe economic problems and there is a significant risk of mass starvations - efforts to solve this will take years and will not prevent initial severe consequences.
Changes in habitat will force mass migrations, with accompanying severe economic and health/survival problems.
Changes in weather are going to be more severe than anyone really gives credit for and will exacerbate/trigger the first two points.
And basically all of these points are vastly underestimated by everyone (but mostly by the deniers).

Xanthir wrote:Climate change is gonna be the death of billions, no hyperbole.

No offence, but thats a big shout, can anyone second that? Dry realism is what Im after.

morriswalters · Postby **morriswalters** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:14 am UTC

Their is reason to believe in a 2 meter sea rise with good certainty in a 100 or so years. Which would inundate a substantial portion of the current coastal areas. This will be acerbated by an accompanying increases in population, from our current levels of about 7 billion to 10 billion by 2050. Major coastal cities are moving now to adapt since they are seeing the early effects.

Water stress is high now in many places and getting worse. A lot of major population areas are running short on water. California is investigating desalinization and operating at least one plant. They are used in the Middle East and Australia. The grain belt relies on well water in a lot of cases and aquifers are getting depleted forcing farmers to drive wells deeper and deeper.

Extreme weather events seem to be becoming more common. Heat waves, droughts, tornado's and so on. But a lot of that is currently buried in statistical noise. How much of it involves normal variability and how much of it is related to climate change is open to dispute. But by the time there is a degree of certainty if we haven't started adapting it could get very ugly.

And there is no indication that if populations start to move, assuming if things get as bad as predicted, that they will be welcomed. They don't seem to be now and it is hard to see that getting better over time. That raises the risk of war. Certainly the Pentagon takes that risk seriously.

Good luck with your talking points.

Sableagle · Postby **Sableagle** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:34 am UTC

Edit: ^^^ that ^^^.

That got posted while I was typing vvv this vvv.

Spoiler:

Liri · Postby **Liri** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:38 pm UTC

Jesus H. Stones. No one is going to look at all fifty-seven - by my count - of those links you posted.

Sableagle · Postby **Sableagle** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 1:04 pm UTC

Yeah, I know, but some of 'em may get some views.

Usual response to any attempt to explain that "global warming" doesn't mean "it'll always be a nice day from now on" is, of course, "tl, dr, just want it to be warmer outside."

Still, what else is there to do when asked about it but try to answer or say "fuck nature" and drive a 4x4 through a nature reserve?

eran_rathan · Postby **eran_rathan** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 1:23 pm UTC

short answer on why we need to focus on climate change -

1. Possibility of either A. Runaway greenhouse effect (i.e. Venus situation) or B. triggering an ice age by massive meltwater pulse (i.e. Younger Dryas event/Lake Agassiz Melt causing global thermohaline circulation pattern disruption).

2. Methane clathrate gun hypothesis, causing the death of all life on earth except extremophiles/methane breathers.

Yes, these possibilities are far in the future (probably), but feedback loops are easiest to stop before they grow exponentially. If we start noticing the wide-scale effect of any of these situations, its already too late to do anything about it.

Zohar · Postby **Zohar** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 1:43 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:Still, what else is there to do when asked about it but try to answer or say "fuck nature" and drive a 4x4 through a nature reserve?

How about begin a conversation and suggest search terms? If I came up to you in-person and asked you this question, would you launch into an hour-long online search followed by 15 minutes of you lecturing me without giving me the opportunity to respond?

Liri · Postby **Liri** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 1:47 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:Yeah, I know, but some of 'em may get some views.

No, they won't, because we have no idea which ones might have some relevant value. If you're unable to synthesize information into a point that only takes a couple sentences to get across, you aren't helping or informing anyone.

Soupspoon · Postby **Soupspoon** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 2:48 pm UTC

This is a self-explanatory link: https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... evel-rise/

(Excepting the expected raw-link-abbreviation behaviour by the forum, but hover-over will still tell you.)

Another treatment: https://www.quora.com/What-percentage-o ... -sea-level
(Note the bit about the higher high tides being important, as lower altitudes above MSL are already currently 'inundated land' where few people live outside of stilted buildings, but immediately above high tide people have settled in ways that "no longer being above high tides" (or reasonably expected storm surges) is already problematic.

Obviously if you can move people elsewhere (the flooding inland of flooded-out internal migrants making the present day fears of flooding by immigrants almost inconsequential) without causing disruption, then it's not a problem. Good luck with that. Best to just deny that it'll happen, rather than think about what to do if it does become consistent reality, right..?

Postby **gmalivuk** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 3:07 pm UTC

Liri wrote:
Sableagle wrote:Yeah, I know, but some of 'em may get some views.

No, they won't, because we have no idea which ones might have some relevant value. If you're unable to synthesize information into a point that only takes a couple sentences to get across, you aren't helping or informing anyone.

And because this is the Science subforum, I can say that in red:

If I can't reasonably guess about the specific content of a linked page from other information in the post, then it's a bad link and you should feel bad for having included it.

Sableagle, you in particular have been warned about this, more than once. Do it again and I'll simply remove your posting rights entirely.

Postby **Zamfir** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:24 pm UTC

The goto source for this is the ’workgroup 2' report of the IPCC. The IPCC has three workgroups, 1 for the physical climate science itself, 2 for consequences, 3 for prevention and mitigation. The workgroup 2 report( which comes out every few years) is close as you'll get to a scientific consensus on the consequences of climate change.

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/mindex.shtml

There is a summary for policymakers as first start, then a technical summary, and finally lots of documentation .

Sableagle · Postby **Sableagle** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:59 pm UTC

Well, ah 'pologize fer overestimatin' y'all. Won't let it happen 'gin.

Postby **SecondTalon** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:35 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:Well, ah 'pologize fer overestimatin' y'all. Won't let it happen 'gin.

I'll hold you to that.

LaserGuy · Postby **LaserGuy** » Fri Mar 31, 2017 7:57 pm UTC

p1t1o wrote:One camp says many species will become extinct due to rapid changes in the environment and habitats.
Another camp says "SO what? Extinctions occur all the time."

Yes, extinctions happen all the time. The problem is that the rate of change of extinctions can change dramatically. The background rate of extinctions is estimated to be of order ~1 species/year. The current rate of extinction is ~1000 species/year (See here). So the problem is not that "species go extinct all the time", the problem is "the number of species that will go extinct THIS YEAR" is equal to the number of species that go extinct in a typical millennium". We're at risk of losing entire classes of species--the bulk of amphibians, in particular, could be wiped out by the 2200.

One camp says environmental changes will wreak havoc on global food production.
Another camp says increased atmospheric CO2 will *increase* global food production.

I think the 2007-2008 food crisis is instructive here. During 2007-2008, a variety of factors including increasing oil prices, droughts, population growth, price speculation, etc. caused food prices to jump between 100-200% in a one year period. This resulted in destabilization of dozens of impoverished countries and put millions at starvation risk. Although prices fell briefly following the 2008 recession, they've never fallen back to 2006 levels, and are actually above the peak of the crisis level at present. And there wasn't any factors involved that were even particularly severe. The global food supply is extremely, dangerously sensitive. Even if it is true that increased CO2 levels will create more arable land for us to use, that doesn't do any good if it destroys the arable land that we currently have, because the transition period is going to be extremely destabilizing. If a fairly minor shock to the food supply can send prices up 100% or more, what happens if it's a really major one?

One camp says global population redistribution due to changes in climate will cause havoc.
Another camp says more of the planet will become habitable if the temperature rises.

Pretty much the same as above. The fact that people might be able to live on Antarctica sometime in the next hundred years is of little gain to us if it means nobody can live in China over the same period. There's no easy way to move a billion-plus people out of the high risk areas into the newly habitable ones.

Generally, I think it's important to think about the scales at play here. It would be very difficult for us to do so much damage to the biosphere that the Earth could no longer support life. It is not so very difficult for us to do so much damage to the biosphere that the Earth can no longer support human life, or the lives of the species that we depend on. It is probably fairly easy for us to do so much damage to the biosphere that the Earth can no longer support the quality of life that a 21st Century person living in the Western world might expect. What is scary about climate change is not that the climate is changing (it always does), but that the rate of change is extraordinarily fast. If the rate of change exceeds our ability, or the biosphere's ability, to keep pace, then we could be faced with catastrophic consequences.

speising · Postby **speising** » Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:16 pm UTC

Also, the human population was never as large as it is now. A change that would have driven a few nomadic tribes to migrate to a new place will be absolutely disastrous to today's densely inhabited countries and their equally densely inhabited neighbours.

What happens when only a few million people endeavour to migrate from the middle east to europe can be seen live right now.

quantropy · Postby **quantropy** » Tue May 23, 2017 11:05 am UTC

I'm a bit late to the party I know, but I thought I'd give some observations on why there is still so much disagreement about climate change, when the science is getting more and more certain:

A: Climate is not weather.
It's hard to predict weather more than a week or so in advance, due to nonlinearities etc. Climate models are much more predictable. Up until about 2010 there wasn't really enough data which meant substantial uncertainties in predictions, as there is for long range weather forecasts (although not really for the same reasons). This led to 2 responses.

1: One camp said that since we couldn't predict climate very well then what was the point of worrying about climate change.
2: The other camp said that the uncertainty meant that we could well be approaching a tipping point and should take action to substantially cut CO2 right away.

Around 2010 though there was enough data to limit the uncertainty in the models, which showed that it was highly likely that the temperature would continue to increase slowly. The conclusion was that if we can cut CO2 output by 60% by 2050 with further cuts after that then we would probably be OK.

B:Lukewarmers.
Climate change deniers seem to make claims in the hope that the reader won't know about the refutations of their claim that already exist. For those who disagree about whether the effects will be as bad as claimed (the so called 'Lukewarmers') the situation is less clear cut. People such as Bjorn Lomborg and Matt Ridley will enter into more protracted arguments and find the weak points in their opponents' position. Part of the problem is that their opponents are used to dealing with deniers, and lukewarmers need a different approach.

Overall I would say that the biggest problem is human inertia, firstly because it means people are still repeating the same arguments from 20 years ago and secondly because it means that even a gradual reduction in CO2 output is likely to be thwarted by our tendency to keep on burning fuels as we have done in the past.

Sableagle · Postby **Sableagle** » Mon Jul 03, 2017 4:33 pm UTC

Recent example article:

A quarter of England’s rivers are at risk of running dry ... The driest October-to-March period for 20 years this year was followed by an extremely dry April and below average rainfall in May, and has left much of Britain with low river and groundwater levels and facing the possibility of drought. England hosts most of the world’s chalk streams but these are particularly vulnerable and half are now at risk of drying up, according to WWF.
The government’s official advisers, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), warned in 2016 that water shortages were one of the most serious impacts of global warming in Britain, with even modest temperature rises leading to “severe” water shortages in England.

Sableagle · Postby **Sableagle** » Thu Jul 27, 2017 5:32 pm UTC

..... and the opposite:

The Met Office themselves say:

[url=http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/high-risk-of-unprecedented-rainfall]New innovative research has found that for England and Wales there is a 1 in 3 chance of a new monthly rainfall record in at least one region each winter (Oct-Mar).

“The new Met Office supercomputer was used to simulate thousands of possible winters, some of them much more extreme than we’ve yet witnessed. This gave many more extreme events than have happened in the real world, helping us work out how severe things could get.”

The research has demonstrated that, even with the current climate, it is likely that there will be one or more monthly regional rainfall record events, in the coming decade.

It's not clear whether they mean regional rainfall records for 1750-2017 are likely to be broken in several regions over the next decade or that some regions are likely to break those records and then break the new records and even break those records over the next decade. Either way, it's not a very encouraging thought.

SuicideJunkie · Postby **SuicideJunkie** » Fri Aug 04, 2017 7:24 pm UTC

Drought is bad. Flooding is bad.
Getting your country hit by both in different places at the same time is worse.
One region of the country getting hit by both of them in sequence is even worse than that.

Sableagle · Postby **Sableagle** » Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:33 pm UTC

Likewise extremes of heat and cold.

Spoiler:

Sableagle · Postby **Sableagle** » Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:00 pm UTC

Months later, I necro-double-post for this:

Gulf Stream current at 'record low' with potentially devastating consequences for weather, warn scientists

Catastrophic changes in global weather patterns could be on the horizon as scientists confirm the warming Atlantic current has reached a “new record low”.

The Gulf Stream current, which has not been running at peak strength for centuries, is now at its weakest point in the past 1,600 years.

Climate change resulting from rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a likely cause of this phenomenon.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), the system of currents that transports warm water from the tropics via the Gulf Stream to the North Atlantic, plays a major role in regulating the world’s climate.

Two international teams of scientists have undertaken extensive analyses of sea surface temperature data and underwater sediments. Both studies were published in the journal Nature.

The early science on this one I saw years ago predicted that it would happen unless we Did Something about climate change, and the big question they had was how soon, because if we had 50 years of global warming before it collapsed we'd get the worst winter of the 19th Century every 7 years but if we only had 25 the port of Dover would be closed due to sea ice.

The science may have matured since then.

Is the Gulf Stream about to collapse and is the new ice age coming sooner than scientists think?

“If the more extreme case happened with the shutdown of the circulation then yes it is the case that Britain could cool – and it could cool by quite a lot, maybe 5 degrees Celsius,” said Dr Thornalley.

One such estimate suggested a 5 per cent chance that Amoc could collapse by the year 2100. While this is fairly low, Dr Thornalley pointed out this is a matter of perspective.

As the Amoc slows down, winter storms in the UK will become more prevalent, as will summer heatwaves across Europe. There will also be a rise in sea levels on the East Coast of the US, and an overall increase in sea temperatures will impact marine life in the Atlantic.

This tiny map:

gives some context for 5°C cooler: from Porto to Inverness, from Inverness to Oslo and from Oslo to Tromsø.

Same section of the paper's website had this delight:

Climate change could trigger volcanic eruptions

In summer 2010, the largest landslide in Canadian history occurred on the southern part of the volcano.

“The glacier base of the slope retreated and during the hottest part of the summer, the slope catastrophically failed – the whole mountain started to move at a very high velocity,” said Mr Roberti.

This was followed in 2016 by the formation of ice caves in the glacier as hot volcanic gases seeped out of the volcano.

“This is the first time this has happened there – so the equilibrium of the mountain is changing,” said Mr Roberti.

To understand these events, the scientists used numerical modelling of the volcano to examine the link between melting ice on the glacier and changes to the magma “plumbing system” inside it.

They found that landslides had the potential to destabilise the magma chamber and trigger an eruption – a phenomenon that can be linked directly to a warmer climate.

“This new research nicely demonstrates that if you change the load on a volcanic mountain – for example by removing some ice – the likelihood of a mechanical collapse and possible ensuing eruption will be slightly increased,” said Professor David Rothery, a geoscientist at The Open University who was not involved in the research.

“Eruptions are triggered by a complex array of factors. I suspect that many eruptions caused by glacial melting might happen eventually anyway, given enough time – but this research shows that warming could increase the chances of those eruptions happening sooner rather than later.”

Pfhorrest · Postby **Pfhorrest** » Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:16 pm UTC

I'm not a denier in any way (I trust scientists to know what they're talking about) but the consequences that I've read about, including in this thread, still don't seem to warrant the kind of panic that some people seem to be having. If we shift to having a cozy Greenland and arable Canada while New York gets submerged and Kansas becomes a desert, but that takes a century or two to happen, that sounds like something that humans are more than able to adapt to. The city I live in basically didn't exist a century ago, and the country I live in is just slightly over two centuries old.

As sea levels and deserts encroach on currently inhabited places, those people on the border of the change will face gradual pressure to move, and places that are unlivable now will be opening up and people will be moving to them. It's not like we have to suddenly relocate everyone in New York to Greenland right now or they'll all die. It's still a bad thing, sure, that will cost a lot of money and inconvenience in the long term and no doubt plenty of hardship and even death along the way, but not a world-is-ending-everybody-panic kind of bad thing. The climate-unrelated housing crisis in California (for example) seems to be a more urgent threat to displacing millions of people than a century-long shift in what places have what climate (e.g. something like 75% of residents are statistically unable to afford housing, and something like 33% of them are thinking of leaving because of that; that's 10-20 million people we're talking about displacing right now, not over a century).

Thesh · Postby **Thesh** » Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:34 pm UTC

It's not just the fact that people will be displaced, it's that it's going to create an imbalance in the ecosystem that will take centuries to correct. In the ocean, especially, climate change is already causing extinctions, and once parts of the food supply start to go extinct it can cause more and more extinctions. That itself will affect the food supply of a very large number of people when we aren't even feeding everyone today.

It adds a huge amount of uncertainty, and so far humanity has shown itself unwilling and unable to plan for the future (which, I'd argue our economy is structured to maximize uncertainty as it stands), which means this will likely trigger repeated crises throughout the future including war and famine because we will simply be unable to adapt to the changes (which some are saying climate change has already contributed to the wars in the middle east), and it will mean many many economic meltdowns, not to mention that we will have to devote a lot more resources to resolving crises, which will make it harder to solve the other crises that will happen in the future regardless.

Postby **gmalivuk** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:41 am UTC

Yeah it's only hundreds of millions of people's lives destroyed, not billions. Why is everyone so concerned?

Postby **Zamfir** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:53 am UTC

[...]The city I live in basically didn't exist a century ago, and the country I live in is just slightly over two centuries old.

As sea levels and deserts encroach on currently inhabited places, those people on the border of the change will face gradual pressure to move, and places that are unlivable now will be opening up and people will be moving to them. [...]

Your example is not that comforting, IMO. The large European migration wave was based on total (and brutal) control of the areas to be settled, and it was everywhere horrible for the original population.

And it moved, over the centuries, only something like 10 to 20% of the European population. Your hypothetical climate change resettlement would have to be much more intense, and it would be worldwide. In practice, it would easily become Generalplan Nord or Manifest Destiny: Canada Edition, and everyone else praying that no one has their home targeted for Gradual Pressure.

Sableagle · Postby **Sableagle** » Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:50 am UTC

gmalivuk wrote:Yeah it's only hundreds of millions of people's lives destroyed, not billions. Why is everyone so concerned?

Searched for that figure. found Deadly Heat Waves Could Endanger 74% of Mankind by 2100, Study Says. Also found:

Climate change could force more than a billion people to flee their homes, says major health report

Environmental changes made worse by climate change – like extreme weather and drought – are forcing millions of people to flee their homes and countries.

The three-degree world: the cities that will be drowned by global warming

When UN climate negotiators meet for summit talks this month, there will be a new figure on the table: 3C.

Until now, global efforts such as the Paris climate agreement have tried to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels. However, with latest projections pointing to an increase of 3.2C by 2100, these goals seem to be slipping out of reach.

Scientists at the non-profit organisation Climate Central estimate that 275 million people worldwide live in areas that will eventually be flooded at 3C of global warming.

As a result of global sea-level rise, storm surges and other factors, economists project that coastal flooding could put almost $1tn of Osaka’s assets at risk by the 2070s, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. “In the past our response was focused on reducing the causes of global warming, but given that climate change is inevitable, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we are now discussing how to respond to the natural disasters that will follow,” Nakaaki said.[/quote]

Liri · Postby **Liri** » Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:24 am UTC

Probably the best thread for it: I remember reading this collection of handwritten letters from climate scientists expressing their frustrations, fears, etc. Does anyone know what I'm talking about?

xkcd

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