Sigh. There's no way I am going to make my win condition in this game. Not one but TWO scum killing factions. Presuming Yolo wasn't lying about the fact that there's at least one more member of his scum team, and why would he lie about that if it would just be disproven in the morning, that means both kill factions are still in play tonight. Which means two more townies down the drain, especially since Yolo fucking left a bomb detailing "here's a list of people our team doesn't know the faction of for your team to focus on killing." Obv Yolo's scummate(s) remaining (what does he mean by "I have a traitor in the thread" anyway?) are in the "Yolo's team will kill from this list" list. So if we focus on killing Yolo's scummates, the rest of my group will be open season for the remaining scum team, which means I'm certain to get killed. Especially if Yolo has managed not to split up his non-teammate scum evenly between his listed groups.

Presume 11-3-2 (grouping myself with town) -- If Yolo is DS's scummate as I suspect and he didn't lie abt another scummate, they have to be the group of 3.

With perfect town days and perfect scum nights,

Code: Select all

`D1 11-3-2`

End D1 11-3-1 or 11-2-2

D2 9-3-1 or 9-2-2

End D2 9-3-0N or 9-1-2 or 9-2-1

D3 8-3-0N or 7-1-2 or 7-2-1

End D3 7-1-1 or 7-2-0

D4 5-1-1 or 6-2-0

End D4 5-1-0 or 6-1-0

D5 4-1-0 or 5-1-0

End D5 4-0-0TW or 5-0-0 TW

Presuming 10-3-3 --

Code: Select all

`D1 10-3-3`

End D1 10-3-2

D2 8-3-2

End D2 8-3-1 or 8-2-2

D3 6-3-1 or 6-2-2

End D3 6-3-0 / 6-2-1 / 6-1-2

D4 5-3-0 or 4-1-2 or 4-2-1

End D4 5-2-0 or 4-0-2 or 4-1-1

D5 4-2-0 or 3-0-2 or 2-1-1

End D5 4-1-0 or 3-0-1 or 2-1-0 or 2-0-1

D6 3-1-0 or 2-0-1 or 1-1-0SW or 1-0-1SW

End D6 3-0-0TW or 2-0-0TW or (SW) or (SW)

If it's any more than 3 and 3 on the scum teams, I don't know how the heck town was ever supposed to win. Hell, just looking at those numbers, I'm not sure how town was ever supposed to win in the first place -- perfect play by scum kills is a lot easier to manage than perfect play by town lynch. Any mislynches at all and town is fairly boned in a 10-3-3 scenario, and it looks like only 1 mislynch is possible in the 11-3-2 one. And that's all presuming I count as town. If I switch to scumside, town's chances are even worse, though I am highly likely to be killed by town or whichever scum team is ailing because of kingmaker scenarios.

Yolo said 3rd parties should side with scum -- well, Yolo, the thing you didn't think of/mention: how the HECK would I even let scum know I'm on your side without getting immediately lynched? Hell, I have a power that even lets me talk anonymously to someone at night, but I'm not sure how to do it. If I send it to the wrong person? Lynched. I have to hit one of either 2 or 3 people, because there's no way I can win with a scumteam that's at 1 person right now. 11 people left now, excluding myself -- that makes it at best a 27% chance. And even if I send it to the right person, it might still get me lynched.

At what point is it in my best interests to side with scum? Well, in the 10-3-3 case, that's simpler: D4 I could end the game if one scumteam is gone. If I reveal myself D4 and it's a 4-2-1 situation, though, it is in the 1-person scumteam's best interests to try to off one of the other scumteam or me in the night, which could lead to 4-0-1 or 3-1-1 in the morning. 4-0-1 is squirrelly and I could switch sides again if needed? 3-1-1 would be the same as 4-2-1 for me. All of course presuming I wasn't killed in the night. I can't really see an obvious point in the 11-3-2 for me to come out siding with scum -- if that's the layout, I'm going to have to play it by ear and see where I can slide under the radar and hopefully manipulate one way or the other.

Some of these scenarios are going to be super squirrelly with the avoiding prisoner's dilemma and the brain machinations of trying to pick which scum team to tell I'll support (dat 4-1-1 scenario, doe).

Asking mpolo if I can send messages involving codes for use in thread or if I can outright identify myself in my message.

I'm so getting killed tonight, aren't I?