Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

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dimochka
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby dimochka » Wed May 31, 2017 6:36 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:4. Scum reads - this could be complete coincidence, but the overwhelming feeling as I was reading GoPs scum vs. town list (and comparing to flips) is - he's been wrong most of the time.

I don't see this one.
D1 list: gets Sabrar1.0, bessie right plus most likely SirGabriel plus dimochka from your pov on the town side. Gets YOLOSWAG right on scum-side. Wrong about BoomFrog and jimbob. Don't see how that is 'wrong most of the time'.
D2 list: this is a bit worse, gets BoomFrog and most likely SirGabriel wrong at scum-side, gets YOLOSWAG right, town-side is filled up with still living players. Still does not warrant your comment in my opinion.

You're partially right. I wasn't going off the lists but rather off the posts. It seemed that his focus has been on people I found townie - Bessie and Boomfrog. And he was harsher on SDK than I was (though I had him lower on my list because I considered him not strictly town, and I'm not entirely sure that that's changed). Both of his votes seemed to be "oh well let's lynch person X whom everyone wants to lynch, but I really want to lynch person Y", and that person Y both times turned out to be town (I think that was Jimbob D1?)
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act I opens

Postby dimochka » Wed May 31, 2017 6:37 pm UTC

SDK wrote:In the interest of reading into players' content, could anyone who has a posting restriction and not yet claimed it just post explicitly what it is? I have none.

I think I was clear with mine, but I'll spell it out. I have to have a vote on me at all times except in the last 24 hours, even if it's my own vote.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 31, 2017 6:51 pm UTC

Quick reread of D3 to see what else I've missed...

Discussion of mass claim looks fine. It was proposed by SirGabriel, so not scum-sided. As I said, I think it's a bit premature for everyone to claim, but I think the claims that have come out so far have been pretty helpful without giving away power roles.

Madge is looking pretty scummy today. I think I'd be happy with her lynch, except there's one specific thing that she commented on D2 that pretty strongly pointed to her being non-scum. SK is possible, I guess, though her complaining about being roleblocked feels genuine to me.

I don't like this post by plytho at all. This sounds a lot like scumteams trying to coordinate. This post by Gopher on the same subject is just as bad.

SDK's claim is fine.

Bard's claim looks okay. If he's town, no problem. If he's scum, I'm inclined to believe most of it on the grounds that this is a pretty damaging claim to make as scum, regardless of my alignment, and he'd obviously been planning to do this since the start of the game. Given that I'm town, I think it's most likely the case that Bard is as well--or, at least, non-scum... being lyncher for Gopher with this condition certainly seems plausible--but there is just enough wiggle room in his claim that he could be scum with me still being town without making this a virtually impossible-to-win role. He can still survive me and win the game as long as I'm nightkilled, but not lynched. It would a nasty role, but not manifestly unfair. Er, yeah, pretty much what Gopher said here.

plytho's read on Madge is quite good and mostly agrees with my thinking, save for the caveat noted above.

Bard finally posts some updated reads. Scumpool is basically GoP + lurkers for him. Not really much analysis here... just reiterates some obvious things (SirGabriel, SDK, town, me confirmed to him, etc.) and puts lurkers as scum by process of elimination.

This post from Bard is 99% wine. I don't know why he even bothered.

Gopher of Pern wrote:In D1, there was really no clear reason to be sure of a second scum faction. Right now, we still don't know for sure there is one. Could still just be SK. I'm not convinced that Laserguy would have been lynched D1, as dethstalker was being very obstinate, I don't think your interjection made the difference.


At the time, I was looking at possibly votes from SDK, Znirk, YOLO, and BoomFrog, and was being read as fairly scummy by a couple other people. I'm not certain that it would have happened, but I think if SDK and BoomFrog had really started pushing for it, yeah, it probably would have gone through.

Madge continues to look scummy. Making a note to reread her in full.

Sabrar makes the case for Bard lying under various circumstances. Sabrar seems to be of the opinion that this is at least somewhat likely (see here), but most of the scenarios he paints are fairly high-risk, low-reward options.

dimochka posts! Read of GoP feels kind of incomplete. Most of what dimochka mentions about GoP is basically D1 content. Doesn't really talk much about anything Gopher has done since. Read of Madge looks fine. He's promised more content. Hope he delivers, as he does have a tendency to make these sort of promises and then not follow through. Also curious about the night result he mentioned.


Right now, I think my preferred lynches are Madge, plytho, dimochka. I'm not too keen on Sabrar at the moment because he seems to be going out of his way to misrepresent me. Bard... I completely understand why people are finding him scummy. I don't love the idea with two kills against us, but I can see the value in a policy lynch on him to clear up some of the confusion.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby dimochka » Wed May 31, 2017 7:14 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:dimochka posts! Read of GoP feels kind of incomplete. Most of what dimochka mentions about GoP is basically D1 content. Doesn't really talk much about anything Gopher has done since. Read of Madge looks fine. He's promised more content. Hope he delivers, as he does have a tendency to make these sort of promises and then not follow through. Also curious about the night result he mentioned.

No, that is not D1 content. That is content until this post. It's just starting from D1. D3 I felt like he nonchalantly switched to his next "targets". If it were me I'd be worried about how my scum reads have been wrong. But different people have different posting styles. I can see people not bothering with the whole "oh crap I was wrong, whatever will I do now".
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby SDK » Wed May 31, 2017 7:33 pm UTC

Madge

I just spent the last... long time reading old games to check Madge's meta. Skimming her posts here had me feeling the same as before - a several scummy things, one thing that might have come from a townie, and a few times where Madge's posting style felt townie. Nothing super concrete. I wanted to confirm that posting style thing, so I checked past games and found that Madge's posting style is clearly less serious when playing as scum. Smalltown PYP was a while back, but it felt like a mirror image of this game in a few places. Her town games she's joking and still having fun, but her focus is down to business. Between the traffic thing, her lack of serious engagement with the thread, and the mock being offended that I've seen here, I'm reading her as clearly scummy based on meta.

Otherwise... we've got the early role PM thing, the lack of opinions, her trust in me early on, Day 2 partial claim for no reason (repeated Day 3 for no reason)... she waffles often on her reads - here with Gopher, here with BoomFrog, here with bessie, and here (really badly) with me.

Madge's sleepy-drunk posts felt like town until I reviewed her meta. I've got nothing aside from that fast flip to YOLO that points to her as town, and plenty that points towards scum. I can't reconcile that easily, but it's one point among many, and frankly her story doesn't even really work from a town angle anyway - she clearly started writing her EBWODP to continue a line of thought on me, then to have time to do all she claims to have done in that linked post? I dunno. I'm just going to ignore that overall and go with all the other evidence on this one.

Overall, clearly scum. Anything to say to that, Sabrar? Even if you revealed your meta tell at this point, it would have to be the most solid thing in the world for me to doubt this. I too have thought I've found meta tells in the past. They sometimes work, but in my experience they are most often inconsistent and sometimes flat out wrong.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 7:35 pm UTC

@SDK: I didn't read Madge's old games (from before my time). Can you link me 3-4 of her games as scum?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 7:55 pm UTC

To note: I just skimmed through Madge's D1 content in Secret Santa 2015 (scum), Pen Pals (scum), Trial of the Pariahs (indie), MMM II (town) and WoT2 (town). So far my read holds.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby SDK » Wed May 31, 2017 7:58 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@SDK: I didn't read Madge's old games (from before my time). Can you link me 3-4 of her games as scum?

I don't have that many, Madge isn't scum very often. Smalltown was my best resource since she was lynched Day 1 in Secret Santa. Everything I said seems to apply to that game as well though.

Smalltown
2015 Secret Santa

PEDIT: Missed Pen Pals, I guess.

If you're going to hold to your meta read, can you comment on all the other scummy stuff I found in this thread? Is that not causing you to doubt your meta read at all? In other words, are you actually reading her as town in this game?
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act I opens

Postby plytho » Wed May 31, 2017 8:07 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:
SDK wrote:In the interest of reading into players' content, could anyone who has a posting restriction and not yet claimed it just post explicitly what it is? I have none.

I think I was clear with mine, but I'll spell it out. I have to have a vote on me at all times except in the last 24 hours, even if it's my own vote.

That's a vote restriction, not a posting restriction.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 8:08 pm UTC

@SDK: It's not the tone of her posts, it's the content. She has an absolutely crappy meta and I may be completely wrong here but I think she's pro-town.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby SDK » Wed May 31, 2017 8:22 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@SDK: It's not the tone of her posts, it's the content. She has an absolutely crappy meta and I may be completely wrong here but I think she's pro-town.

Sure, but she plays that up whether she's town or scum. I'm going to continue my rereads here, but it sounds like you're about as sure as I am, so I'm not sure where we go from there. :P
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 31, 2017 8:27 pm UTC

We can agree to disagree? :)
I mean it's technically not required that we have a consensus on the best lynch-target.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby plytho » Wed May 31, 2017 8:32 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Madge is looking pretty scummy today. I think I'd be happy with her lynch, except there's one specific thing that she commented on D2 that pretty strongly pointed to her being non-scum. SK is possible, I guess, though her complaining about being roleblocked feels genuine to me.
Can you point out that specific thing please? Why exactly is she looking scummy today?
LaserGuy wrote:I don't like this post by plytho at all. This sounds a lot like scumteams trying to coordinate. This post by Gopher on the same subject is just as bad.
Why do you think it sounds like I'm trying too coordinate? So you think Gopher and I are both scum on opposing teams? What team are we on?
LaserGuy wrote:Right now, I think my preferred lynches are Madge, plytho, dimochka.
Why am I on your shortlist? Is it because of that one post you pointed out above? You say Gopher's post is just as bad but he's not on your list.

LaserGuy wrote:but there is just enough wiggle room in his claim that he could be scum with me still being town without making this a virtually impossible-to-win role. He can still survive me and win the game as long as I'm nightkilled, but not lynched.
This doesn't make sense. If he's scum and you're town why hasn't he nightkilled you yet?
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 31, 2017 9:08 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Madge is looking pretty scummy today. I think I'd be happy with her lynch, except there's one specific thing that she commented on D2 that pretty strongly pointed to her being non-scum. SK is possible, I guess, though her complaining about being roleblocked feels genuine to me.


Can you point out that specific thing please? Why exactly is she looking scummy today?


The last bit of this post. This statement really doesn't seem like the kind of thing that a scum with a night chat thread would be saying. It's possible that she fabricated this entirely, but this feels a lot like the kind of tell that mpolo made in Wheel of Time where he forgot scum had daychat.

For the latter, lurky behaviour with poor content and incoherent opinions. I'm tempted to say her content is worse than Bard's.

plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I don't like this post by plytho at all. This sounds a lot like scumteams trying to coordinate. This post by Gopher on the same subject is just as bad.


Why do you think it sounds like I'm trying too coordinate? So you think Gopher and I are both scum on opposing teams? What team are we on?


No, I don't necessarily think you and Gopher are on opposing teams. I don't necessarily think you're both scum. But this post, as well as Gopher's sound a lot like you're saying "Hey, we're going to follow YOLO's suggestions. Please keep doing this so we both hit town".

If you are scum, I think you are probably Guild, based on D2 wagon and D2 interactions with YOLO/DethStalker. If Gopher is scum, I think he's probably supernatural.

plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Right now, I think my preferred lynches are Madge, plytho, dimochka.


Why am I on your shortlist? Is it because of that one post you pointed out above? You say Gopher's post is just as bad but he's not on your list.


I'm not basing that decision just on the one post, though it certainly was a contributing factor.

plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:but there is just enough wiggle room in his claim that he could be scum with me still being town without making this a virtually impossible-to-win role. He can still survive me and win the game as long as I'm nightkilled, but not lynched.


This doesn't make sense. If he's scum and you're town why hasn't he nightkilled you yet?


Not sure. Could be the penalty for me dying is worse than Bard is letting on--not lethal, but bad enough that it would still be a big liability. If Bard is scum, then he isn't a bodyguard for me, so maybe whatever power he actually has is lost instead when I die. I don't think he's SK, so there's other members of the team who may have had different priorities.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 31, 2017 9:09 pm UTC

EBWOP: mpolo made that mistake in Dark Tower, not Wheel of Time.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed May 31, 2017 11:26 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:dimochka posts! Read of GoP feels kind of incomplete. Most of what dimochka mentions about GoP is basically D1 content. Doesn't really talk much about anything Gopher has done since. Read of Madge looks fine. He's promised more content. Hope he delivers, as he does have a tendency to make these sort of promises and then not follow through. Also curious about the night result he mentioned.

No, that is not D1 content. That is content until this post. It's just starting from D1. D3 I felt like he nonchalantly switched to his next "targets". If it were me I'd be worried about how my scum reads have been wrong. But different people have different posting styles. I can see people not bothering with the whole "oh crap I was wrong, whatever will I do now".


Yes, I tend not to dwell on the fact I was wrong. I seem to always pick Boomfrog as scum, that was my bad. And I had a good reason for thinking bessie scum, as SirGabriel admitted she was trying to act scummy. They were my only solid picks for scum that I've been wrong about. Yes my reads change from day to day. They should. More information comes out. And that person Y was Boomfrog both times. Though I was much more on board with the YOLO lynch than the dethstalker lynch.

Honestly, I have no idea what I was thinking early day 1. My second post in day 1 I replied to someone who asked my why I thought there were two scum teams, and I thought to myself, wait, there are two scum teams? Why would I think that? Which is why I contradict myself all over the place. My reason for it is possibly my posting restriction: I am inexperienced, so I have to mimic other peoples posts. My first post was a long list, mimicking an earlier post. My second tried some 'thou's and 'thee's. Since then, I haven't really tried. (Just be glad I didn't try to mimic dethstalker!)

I changed my opinion because dethstalker continued to be unhelpful.

I still don't see the difference between knowing the voting mechanics that have been revealed now early, or not. I mean, they are obvious now, I don't see what would have been so bad knowing them earlier. But I didn't press on it too hard after people disagreed.

Did I hint at being Vig? Awesome!

Vote: Bard

That last post reminds me of YOLO yesterday. They still haven't done any genuine scumhunting.

I was tempted to vote for Madge, but most of the scummy tells I've got from them could stem from RL issues, and Laserguy made a good point about that tell.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:49 am UTC

I was expecting to see full read-lists from SDK and dimochka at least by the time I get up. Deadline is approaching and there's just a single post in the last 7 hours? Dreadful.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:53 am UTC

Yeah, everyone sleeps when I'm most active.

Been a bit busy today, but I'll get an analysis on Madge and dimochka up soon.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby dimochka » Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:00 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I was expecting to see full read-lists from SDK and dimochka at least by the time I get up. Deadline is approaching and there's just a single post in the last 7 hours? Dreadful.

Working on it right now.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:21 am UTC

I definitely did not realize the deadline is tomorrow morning... Yikes! Uh, I'll put this down for now and try to do a more thorough read of my scummiest picks in the next couple hours.

Vote Madge
Request prod on kalira
Request extension

We can force an extension if the vote is tied, though this is a really suboptimal option, I think, given possible vote shenanigans.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:25 am UTC

So, upon rereading dimochka, the first thing that stands out is this:

-town-
Sabrar
Bessie
Boomfrog
Bard
-neutral-
Freezeblade / Kalira
SirG
Madge [this is mostly a placeholder, D2 I'll look at her more closely]
GoP
LaserGuy [possibly lower, depending on Bard's post]
-scummy-
Znirk [interchageable with plytho/jimbob, need more content to judge]
plytho
Jimbob
Yolo
SDK [note - I don't actually think it's a priority to lynch him; important to figure out what he's doing]
dethstalker


Seems a bit uncannily accurate. dethstalker and YOLO are two of his three scummiest picks (and SDK was there due to the thing with bessie), and the three top town have all been revealed as town. Wrong about Jimbob, but thats the only error I see. Are you really this good dimochka? Or do you know something?

Overall, they haven't contributed much, but what they have has been quite accurate. If they are scum, they'd have to be supernatural. I cannot see them as buddies with YOLO and dethstalker. I do feel supernatural could fit, but I'm not convinced. If we want to lynch guildscum today, I doubt dimochka is the person to lynch.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:26 am UTC

So, Laserguy, you don't believe that the tell Madge gave to being town is genuine?
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:39 am UTC

She's my priority to reread at the moment. A lot of her content has looked very scummy to me... that's pretty much the only thing that has stood as a "oh, she might be town" moment. Not sure how to weigh that against everything else.

There's a good chance I'll change my vote in the next few hours as I try to reread dimochka, plytho, Madge and Bard. If we don't get an extension, I don't imagine I'll get to anyone else. kalira has only made one post today I think, which is also very problematic. I'll throw her on the reread list too.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 01, 2017 6:44 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Are you really this good dimochka?

bessie wrote:dimochka as Cordelia - Solid content when he finally got to it. If he is town all his reads will be correct.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:36 am UTC

Upon reread, I think I'd be happy with lynch on any of plytho/Madge/kalira. Bard I wouldn't be happy with, but I'd understand the reasoning completely. Dimochka I'm going to move out of the lynch pool because I really can't find any fault with his content and his reads are very sharp. Kalira has been super lurky D3 for unexplained reasons. I don't like that she's basically at the point where she's going to always be a day behind in content at this rate, and I don't like that I still don't feel like I have anything to read off of her.

Overall, I think I like this better:
Vote kalira

SDK/SirG, feel free to push my vote if I'm being an idiot. I'm not likely to be back before end of day barring an extension.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby mpolo » Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:15 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Request prod on kalira
Request extension


24 hour extension granted. Kalira has been prodded. Countdown.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby plytho » Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:57 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:We can agree to disagree? :)
I mean it's technically not required that we have a consensus on the best lynch-target.

That works in the first couple of Days but in endgame it’s problematic if townies agree to disagree, isn't it?

LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Madge is looking pretty scummy today. I think I'd be happy with her lynch, except there's one specific thing that she commented on D2 that pretty strongly pointed to her being non-scum. SK is possible, I guess, though her complaining about being roleblocked feels genuine to me.


Can you point out that specific thing please? Why exactly is she looking scummy today?


The last bit of this post. This statement really doesn't seem like the kind of thing that a scum with a night chat thread would be saying. It's possible that she fabricated this entirely, but this feels a lot like the kind of tell that mpolo made in Wheel of Time where he forgot scum had daychat.

That’s a good point. Is there any reason you didn't link to this before?

LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:but there is just enough wiggle room in his claim that he could be scum with me still being town without making this a virtually impossible-to-win role. He can still survive me and win the game as long as I'm nightkilled, but not lynched.


This doesn't make sense. If he's scum and you're town why hasn't he nightkilled you yet?


Not sure. Could be the penalty for me dying is worse than Bard is letting on--not lethal, but bad enough that it would still be a big liability. If Bard is scum, then he isn't a bodyguard for me, so maybe whatever power he actually has is lost instead when I die. I don't think he's SK, so there's other members of the team who may have had different priorities.


Still doesn’t make much sense to me. Losing a teammate is definitely worse than losing a power so I don’t understand how those priorities could work. I think the only way scum!Bard leaves townie!LaserGuy alive is if he also dies when you’re nightkilled. This is also the case for scum!Bard and rival scum!LaserGuy (which is likely the same from scum!Bard's perspective). So now I’m wondering why Bard would claim nightkilling you doesn’t kill him. I think that bit only makes sense for town!Bard. So either he is town and LaserGuy is too and he’s honestly claiming that. Or scum!Bard added that bit to his claim to lead to this conclusion?

Gopher of Pern wrote:I still don't see the difference between knowing the voting mechanics that have been revealed now early, or not. I mean, they are obvious now, I don't see what would have been so bad knowing them earlier. But I didn't press on it too hard after people disagreed.

I think disagreement was about revealing all voting mechanics rather than just the obvious ones. Also, at the beginning of the game it's not really clear how bad it can be to reveal your voting mechanics. You don't know how they interact with others and how they could be abused.

LaserGuy wrote:Upon reread, I think I'd be happy with lynch on any of plytho/Madge/kalira. Bard I wouldn't be happy with, but I'd understand the reasoning completely. Dimochka I'm going to move out of the lynch pool because I really can't find any fault with his content and his reads are very sharp. Kalira has been super lurky D3 for unexplained reasons. I don't like that she's basically at the point where she's going to always be a day behind in content at this rate, and I don't like that I still don't feel like I have anything to read off of her.

Overall, I think I like this better:
Vote kalira

SDK/SirG, feel free to push my vote if I'm being an idiot. I'm not likely to be back before end of day barring an extension.

We have an extension now. Would you mind explaining your reads? What did you notice about me, Madge and kalira that you found scummy?

kalira is apparently your top scum read right now, why? Because she's lurky and behind on the thread? Is she guild or supernatural?
You didn't really explain your read on me when I asked you before, only that I made that one post that looked scummy to you.
LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Right now, I think my preferred lynches are Madge, plytho, dimochka.


Why am I on your shortlist? Is it because of that one post you pointed out above? You say Gopher's post is just as bad but he's not on your list.


I'm not basing that decision just on the one post, though it certainly was a contributing factor.

And you haven't explained why you don't think Gopher is scummy despite having a post as bad as mine.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:15 am UTC

plytho wrote:That works in the first couple of Days but in endgame it’s problematic if townies agree to disagree, isn't it?
As shown by Dark Tower it can be a huge problem. However we're not in end-game yet, setup looks to be something like 7-2-1 with 2 competing scum-teams so there is no significant danger of scum quick-hammering in LYLO. Obviously the majority of the town should agree on the lynch and it's important that everyone should vote.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:06 am UTC

plytho wrote:Still doesn’t make much sense to me. Losing a teammate is definitely worse than losing a power so I don’t understand how those priorities could work. I think the only way scum!Bard leaves townie!LaserGuy alive is if he also dies when you’re nightkilled. This is also the case for scum!Bard and rival scum!LaserGuy (which is likely the same from scum!Bard's perspective).
I'm not following you. Why shouldn't scum!Bard leave town!LaserGuy alive? I don't think we'll ever lynch LaserGuy before Bard so that risk is not applicable here. town!LaserGuy is inclined to defend him which is a big plus for him. Can you expand upon your reasoning here?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby plytho » Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:25 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
plytho wrote:Still doesn’t make much sense to me. Losing a teammate is definitely worse than losing a power so I don’t understand how those priorities could work. I think the only way scum!Bard leaves townie!LaserGuy alive is if he also dies when you’re nightkilled. This is also the case for scum!Bard and rival scum!LaserGuy (which is likely the same from scum!Bard's perspective).
I'm not following you. Why shouldn't scum!Bard leave town!LaserGuy alive? I don't think we'll ever lynch LaserGuy before Bard so that risk is not applicable here. town!LaserGuy is inclined to defend him which is a big plus for him. Can you expand upon your reasoning here?

Right, I didn't take into account that we wouldn't lynch LaserGuy before Bard and was comparing the scum perspective of being killed through a LaserGuy lynch and losing a power by night killing LaserGuy.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Madge » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:20 pm UTC

Had a proper sleep last night, long day at uni and a fight with my new bike tube WHICH HAS A DIFFERENT TYPE OF VALVE THAT BASICALLY DEFEATED ME FOREVER.

Tomorrow I will "make a case against Plytho" - not because I think Plytho is scummy but because when I'm scum I can find scummy behaviour in town and try and bring them down, so to contribute better as town I will try and make a case against someone and then see what you all think of it. So Plytho, don't take it personally: really because my read on you is so bad I can't tell you and LaserGuy apart. (Secondary priority is to do an attack on Laserguy).

Other aside: in order not to risk revealing my vote power, I will not vote again this game unless necessary. I am doing this to keep the information scum gets to a minimum.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:28 pm UTC

Madge wrote:Other aside: in order not to risk revealing my vote power, I will not vote again this game unless necessary. I am doing this to keep the information scum gets to a minimum.

So you're claiming to have a second, vote-related power in addition to your power you can use every night? Sounds a lot stronger than the townie powers that have flipped (with the possible exception of bessie's mason chat).

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby plytho » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:54 pm UTC

Here's my town to scum at this point. I underlined the people I've paid particular attention to today.

town

SirGabriel
Sabrar
SDK
kalira
dimochka
Goper of Pern
Bard (and by extension, LaserGuy)
Madge

scum
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Madge » Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:37 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
Madge wrote:Other aside: in order not to risk revealing my vote power, I will not vote again this game unless necessary. I am doing this to keep the information scum gets to a minimum.

So you're claiming to have a second, vote-related power in addition to your power you can use every night? Sounds a lot stronger than the townie powers that have flipped (with the possible exception of bessie's mason chat).


Together my two powers are less powerful than Bessie's mason chat, IMO. I had the feeling that everyone has something funky going with their votes - dim has to have at least one vote on him until the end of the day, dethstalker always had a vote on him. But bessie flipped as plain mason among others so that was a poor assumption.

Saying more helps scum. If you want to find out my power, lynch me and my flip will tell you. I'd prefer not to even claim my power during a full claim just because I think knowing the details will not help town, except in delaying my lynch. I consider it worth the trade-off.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby kalira » Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:50 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Kalira has been super lurky D3 for unexplained reasons. I don't like that she's basically at the point where she's going to always be a day behind in content at this rate, and I don't like that I still don't feel like I have anything to read off of her.


Okay, fair enough, I haven't been around D3 enough. But how am I a day behind in content? After I commented on all things D1, I was making real time commentary during D2, and what I have posted D3 is based on content from D3. Others have clearly found enough to comment on in my posts.

Sabrar wrote:
plytho wrote:Still doesn’t make much sense to me. Losing a teammate is definitely worse than losing a power so I don’t understand how those priorities could work. I think the only way scum!Bard leaves townie!LaserGuy alive is if he also dies when you’re nightkilled. This is also the case for scum!Bard and rival scum!LaserGuy (which is likely the same from scum!Bard's perspective).
I'm not following you. Why shouldn't scum!Bard leave town!LaserGuy alive? I don't think we'll ever lynch LaserGuy before Bard so that risk is not applicable here. town!LaserGuy is inclined to defend him which is a big plus for him. Can you expand upon your reasoning here?


Okay, I want to touch on that theoretical. Why SHOULDN'T we lynch LaserGuy before Bard? Enough people are reading Bard as scum, and based on what I'm seeing D3, I would be inclined to agree. But people have also been seeing LaserGuy as scum also, which I very much agree with. If Bard is telling the truth about his unreciprocated lovers with LaserGuy, lynching Bard would either confirm LG's townie status (if town!Bard), or it would neither confirm nor deny LG's townie/scum status (if indie!Bard or scum-of-any-variety!Bard).

Town!Bard flip clearly gives us information about LG, but based on the fact that atm he has the most votes (I believe), obviously his townie status is in question. There are people voting for Bard believing he is scum, which means they think Bard is scum but are willing to get zero information about LG from that lynch. Based on the fact that LG's been a topic of conversation pretty much all game, scum!Bard flip would change nothing in that regard, so we would likely again be focused on LG D4, which could detract from further scumhunting.

Now consider the opposite, lynching LaserGuy instead. If Bard dies as well, we have then lynched two people that a large number of players have seen as scum at multiple times throughout the game, and we get information on both of them. If LaserGuy is town, yes we have mislynched him, but we don't have to focus on him again D4. And I have to believe that we have at least one mislynch built into the game (because if there is no way for town to win having mislynched even just once, setup is broken). I very much doubt that BOTH Bard and LG are town, so in my mind that would still net us a scum lynch. If both end up dying from the lynch and they both flip scum, then we've doubled our lynch power D3.

If on the other hand Bard DOESN'T die when we lynch LG, well, that tells us he's clearly scum anyway, and we can continue to scumhunt D4 without focusing on Bard because we know we'll lynch him by end of day anyway.

Someone tell me why we shouldn't lynch LG? Because from where I'm sitting, it just makes the most logical sense.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:59 pm UTC

If at least 1 of {Bard, LaserGuy} is scum then lynching Bard is perfectly safe because town!Bard + scum!LaserGuy is impossible. If neither is scum then lynching Bard is better because we only lose 1 townie.
Basically the safe play is to lynch Bard, the play with the big risk/big reward is to lynch LaserGuy. However we are on a good track so far, no need to take any risks. Even his mislynch would give us info.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby SDK » Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:15 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I was expecting to see full read-lists from SDK and dimochka at least by the time I get up. Deadline is approaching and there's just a single post in the last 7 hours? Dreadful.

plytho writes a lot. I was in the middle of reading him and expected to have time to do others as well when my family showed up to go swimming. I'd forgotten about that plan, so rushed out. The extension makes up for that, at least.

Seems strange that LaserGuy should choose to vote kalira. Not sure what to make of that since I feel like scum LaserGuy (with scum Bard) should vote Madge instead. I guess he could have figured it was too close to deadline to make a difference?
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:20 pm UTC

I'm sure it's because they fear my super-secret read on Madge being revealed. :lol:

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby plytho » Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:29 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
Sabrar wrote:I was expecting to see full read-lists from SDK and dimochka at least by the time I get up. Deadline is approaching and there's just a single post in the last 7 hours? Dreadful.

plytho writes a lot.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act III opens in chaos

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:32 pm UTC

Thanks, I needed that chuckle.


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