Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Game over! - Wing Condition

For your simulated organized crime needs.

Moderators: jestingrabbit, Moderators General, Prelates

User avatar
Madge
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 3:45 am UTC
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 1 - The Council of the Birds

Postby Madge » Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:29 pm UTC

Day 1 is over

Final Votals:

Mpolo- (1) - Dethstalker
heuristically_alone - (3) - mpolo, Flicky, jimbob
Dethstalker - (3) - LaserGuy, Sabrar, Heuri


Per tiebreaker rules, Dethstalker is lynched having received 3 votes first.

Role reveal will happen in the morning.

I am currently in the process of replacing Jbby, unless I hear back from him before the night ends.

Day 2 starts in just under 3 days

Please send your night actions in before the deadline or they will be forfeited. Night chat may now begin.

Day 2 will start when that timer runs out, or when all night actions have been received AND mafia declare they are finished talking, whichever is sooner.

Some members of the Council were used to flocking together, but many of them were solitary birds - a woodpecker who liked pecking wood, a lorikeet with its colourful jacket - and such creatures were not used to the collective ways of the council. The discussion had stops and starts as everyone tried to work out how best to declare their will.

“Silence!” Came a heaps mad squawk: the crow, who was chairing the meeting, had had enough. “Has the council reached its decision?”

The silence of the council’s clearing was all of a sudden punctuated by a chant.

“Dethstalker!” They yelled. The force of the cry reverberated from the dead trees that encircled them. “Dethstalker! Dethstalker!”

Another chorus started crying out another name, but it was too late; the crow gave the condor a nod.

The huge creature grabbed the victim in its talons, and flew up, up, up, until he was a mere dot against the twilight sky.

There was a small thwack, as the deed was done. The condor returned, an unidentifiable feathery corpse in his claws.

“Let’s get some rest.” The crow squawked. “We’ll see what the vulture has to say about poor old Dethstalker in the morning.”
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

DethStalker
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue May 09, 2017 4:34 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Night 1 - The Flight of the Condor

Postby DethStalker » Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:47 pm UTC

But day ends in 45 minutes according to the clock...


Edit: Never mind

User avatar
Madge
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 3:45 am UTC
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Night 1 - The Flight of the Condor

Postby Madge » Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:00 pm UTC

Sorry Dethstalker, the "deadline clock" I linked to for end of D1 counts upwards after the deadline to tell you how much time has elapsed since.

In future I'll use the setting to leave it at 0:00:00 after the deadline passes.
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

User avatar
Madge
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 3:45 am UTC
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Madge » Tue Jul 04, 2017 1:15 am UTC

The next morning, the motley crew of birds approached the place in the clearing where Dethstalker had met his grisly end the previous day. The old vulture was making short work of his remains.

“Mr. Vulture,” one of the sparrows asked. “Did you find anything?”

The vulture looked over, his eyes glinting in the dawn light. “No. Just a sparrow.”


Dethstalker was lynched yesterday. He was a sparrow (vanilla town).

There was a cry of horror from the council of the birds; they didn’t, did they? They couldn’t possibly have allowed their collective fear of ibises to get them to jump to conclusions? To kill an innocent sparrow? It was more than they could bear.

Then, another cry of horror; that meant that there were still ibises hidden among them. They counted their little group three times, and one of them was missing.

It was mpolo. Quickly, they flapped to his favourite perch and were greeted with a grisly sight.

There he was, perforated by a thousand scythe-like beak marks. A poor, innocent little sparrow that had somehow earned the ire of those horrific birds. For him, there would be no more picnics.

Mpolo was killed in the night. He was a sparrow (vanilla town).

Day 2 has started. You may now post. Mafia may no longer exchange PMs. Mentors and mentees may continue to chat.


Day 2 ends when this timer runs out [edit: extension was granted, and the linked clock reflects the extended deadline]
Last edited by Madge on Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:32 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

User avatar
Madge
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 3:45 am UTC
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Madge » Tue Jul 04, 2017 1:15 am UTC

Dimochka will be replacing jbby; however dimochka has informed me he may not be able to post before Wednesday.
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

User avatar
heuristically_alone
Posts: 279
Joined: Sat Apr 09, 2016 7:43 pm UTC
Location: 37.2368078 and -115.80341870000001

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby heuristically_alone » Tue Jul 04, 2017 3:56 am UTC

I may not br able to post for next 36 hours due to certaimn American holidays. If I get a chance I will. @somitomi is there a reason you decide not to place a vote?
Bow gifted by adnapemit.

You can learn to levitate with just a little help.

:idea: = Surprised Cyclops

User avatar
Madge
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 3:45 am UTC
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Madge » Tue Jul 04, 2017 4:06 am UTC

let me know if you guys want an extension and I'll be happy to give one, I keep on forgetting it's a US holiday this week.
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 04, 2017 7:53 am UTC

Considering the holiday and dimochka not participating until Wednesday I support an extension.

@dimochka: welcome to the game! Please try to contribute more than your predecessor did (not that this will be hard) and remember that you promised not to lurk anymore.

FoS: somitomi

You have a mentor so despite being a complete newbie you should be aware that D1 interaction is very important in a game where scum has only night-chat and haven't had yet a chance to coordinate.

Will be extremely busy today but will try to check back once in a while.

User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:00 am UTC

Welcome dimochka!

With that flip, Sabrar, heuristically_alone and LaserGuy definitely need looking at again, but I don't have too much time to process such thoughts at this moment. I expect that there's scum in there, but probably only 1, especially if heuristically_alone isn't scum.

On claiming: having finally gone through the possible setups, here's my suggestions on who should and shouldn't claim:
Vanilla town/Universal backup - don't claim (see my earlier comments). This includes saying things like "I didn't use an action last night" or "I didn’t get any useful info last night".
Jailkeeper - don't claim (you either targeted a townie that wasn't the kill target, or scum who didn't use the kill)
Doctor - don't claim (same as Jailkeeper, except that your target may have been the killer)
Cop - if you got a scum result, then claim. If not, keep it to yourself for now. A No Result doesn't help us except tell us there's a roleblocker, and a Town result isn't worth you being identified and killed by scum at this stage (but maybe is on a later day, I expect).
Tracker - If you saw someone target mpolo, you've successfully identified the killer and should claim. If you saw someone target someone else, you've identified a Doctor and should not claim. If you got a "visited nobody", you either tracked a vanilla townie or non-killer mafia, and there's no point in claiming, except to counter-claim if your target claims to have visited somebody.

Depending on their night results, a Town PR may know the setup by now, but it's not worth outing themselves to tell us this at this point.

Anybody disagree with any of the above?
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:11 am UTC

EBWOP: having skimmed somitomi's posts, he was clearly pushing against DethStalker, so although he didn't vote, he joins Sabrar et al om the people to look more closely at. Early thinking is that if heuristically_alone is scum, somitomi isn't, as he would have placed a vote on DethStalker to keep him safe for certain.
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

User avatar
flicky1991
Like in Cinderella?
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:36 pm UTC
Location: London

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:30 am UTC

Grah, OK.

I don't think the people that were pushing for DethStalker to be lynched are necessarily suspicious. Even those of us that voted for someone else were generally reading him as scum, right? Scum had no incentive to climb on a wagon that was rolling along fine by itself, since they would only look suspicious after.
any pronouns
----
avatar from marionic
----
Forum Games Discord
(tell me if link doesn't work)
----
NiteSciFi, sci-fi forum that needs more members

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:42 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:With that flip, Sabrar, heuristically_alone and LaserGuy definitely need looking at again, but I don't have too much time to process such thoughts at this moment. I expect that there's scum in there, but probably only 1, especially if heuristically_alone isn't scum.
I have some issues with this but not enough time at the moment to properly articulate them.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Anybody disagree with any of the above?
Your analysis is not fully complete but what you left out does not change the situation and your reasoning is correct. One thing to think about: there may be merit to the idea of Cop claiming a Town result if we're about to mislynch that specific player. I'm not sure if that's the right thing to do but 'allowing' the mislynch leads to LYLO with Cop's N1 result rendered useless.

User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:54 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Anybody disagree with any of the above?
One thing to think about: there may be merit to the idea of Cop claiming a Town result if we're about to mislynch that specific player. I'm not sure if that's the right thing to do but 'allowing' the mislynch leads to LYLO with Cop's N1 result rendered useless.
I don't completely agree with a Cop claiming a town result to prevent a lynch at this point - if a Cop claims, then either they will get killed or roleblocked at night, almost certainly, rendering their potential result for N2 just as useless (when it has the potential to be more useful than the N1 town result), although it is definitely a trade-off - the Cop could easily still get roleblocked or they or their target could still get killed on N2, and confirming someone as town might enable us to lynch scum today (although we might just mislynch another town instead). Ultimately, I guess the Cop should make their own decision (how sure are they that we'll hit scum with the redirected lynch, for example, and how likely do they think they are a kill target).
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 04, 2017 10:34 am UTC

Advantage of Cop claim:
- potentially we can lynch scum instead
- gives 2 confirmed townies with at least 1 surviving to D3
Disadvantage:
- Cop won't get any results after that

Advantage of Cop not claiming:
- probably gets useful result N2 which could help solve the game (especially if he investigates the roleblocker)
Disadvantage
- guaranteed mislynch
- allows scum to counterclaim Cop in LYLO (though depending on circumstances Cop might not even have to claim D3)

Neither is clearly better, so probably the other factors will be the deciding ones as you mentioned.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 04, 2017 2:07 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:With that flip, Sabrar, heuristically_alone and LaserGuy definitely need looking at again, but I don't have too much time to process such thoughts at this moment. I expect that there's scum in there, but probably only 1, especially if heuristically_alone isn't scum.
Let's get back to this.
First, as flicky already noted most of the players found DethStalker scummy so looking again at just the players on his wagon does not really make sense.
Second, when I read your choice of wording it implied to me in my mind as if those on the list were looking townie before but now you want to take a second look and I don't understand how that would apply to heuristically_alone as he was your top scum-read D1. I could be reading too much into it as I'm prone to do and your phrasing might have been due to lack of time but it pinged me.
Third, I'm not sure that you really thought through the last part. If heuristically_alone is scum then it makes sense for his partner to defend him and vote for DethStalker (unless it's Jbby), so I would say it would be more likely from your pov that both scum were on the wagon in that case. If he's not scum then we had 2 townie-wagons D1 and scum can easily evade any connection by not voting together but this is an obvious case.

User avatar
flicky1991
Like in Cinderella?
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:36 pm UTC
Location: London

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jul 04, 2017 2:13 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:If heuristically_alone is scum then it makes sense for his partner to defend him and vote for DethStalker (unless it's Jbby), so I would say it would be more likely from your pov that both scum were on the wagon in that case.

Isn't that what jimbob said? "Probably only one especially if heury isn't scum" equates to "If heury is scum then two were on the wagon".
any pronouns
----
avatar from marionic
----
Forum Games Discord
(tell me if link doesn't work)
----
NiteSciFi, sci-fi forum that needs more members

User avatar
heuristically_alone
Posts: 279
Joined: Sat Apr 09, 2016 7:43 pm UTC
Location: 37.2368078 and -115.80341870000001

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby heuristically_alone » Tue Jul 04, 2017 2:25 pm UTC

Im against cop claiming. While he could still get useful results in the future, wait to claim until cop is about to get mislynched or one of your town results.
Bow gifted by adnapemit.

You can learn to levitate with just a little help.

:idea: = Surprised Cyclops

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 04, 2017 2:37 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:Isn't that what jimbob said? "Probably only one especially if heury isn't scum" equates to "If heury is scum then two were on the wagon".

I didn't read it that way, to me "Probably only one especially if heury isn't scum" looked like "I think that there is only 1 scum among them and if heury isn't scum then I'm sure of it".
Of course I might be mistaken, I usually misinterpret at least 1 thing per game.

User avatar
flicky1991
Like in Cinderella?
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:36 pm UTC
Location: London

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jul 04, 2017 2:48 pm UTC

Ehh, I probably shouldn't be putting words in his mouth anyway.

I'm surprised by Mafia's choice of kill. mpolo was not particularly high up in people's town reads. To me that means either (a) the real mafia were getting read as town so they had no better candidate for the kill, or (b) they mistakenly thought mpolo was hinting at having a power.
any pronouns
----
avatar from marionic
----
Forum Games Discord
(tell me if link doesn't work)
----
NiteSciFi, sci-fi forum that needs more members

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 04, 2017 3:09 pm UTC

I was wondering about that myself but there are usually some other possibilities as well, like scum not wanting to risk their target getting protection from Doctor or Jailkeeper. My other guess would have been the most common reason why people are getting NK-d and that would be their reads but mpolo didn't really give out a read-list except for a few opinions.

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4540
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jul 04, 2017 3:42 pm UTC

A few quick things...

I am on vacation and won't be able to post much this week. Extension would be appreciated.

I agree with what jimbob is saying here as far as claims for power roles are concerned.

Will try to post later with some thoughts on night results when I have more time.

User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 04, 2017 4:46 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:With that flip, Sabrar, heuristically_alone and LaserGuy definitely need looking at again, but I don't have too much time to process such thoughts at this moment. I expect that there's scum in there, but probably only 1, especially if heuristically_alone isn't scum.
Let's get back to this.
First, as flicky already noted most of the players found DethStalker scummy so looking again at just the players on his wagon does not really make sense.
Second, when I read your choice of wording it implied to me in my mind as if those on the list were looking townie before but now you want to take a second look and I don't understand how that would apply to heuristically_alone as he was your top scum-read D1. I could be reading too much into it as I'm prone to do and your phrasing might have been due to lack of time but it pinged me.
Third, I'm not sure that you really thought through the last part. If heuristically_alone is scum then it makes sense for his partner to defend him and vote for DethStalker (unless it's Jbby), so I would say it would be more likely from your pov that both scum were on the wagon in that case. If he's not scum then we had 2 townie-wagons D1 and scum can easily evade any connection by not voting together but this is an obvious case.
I realise I didn't explain things particularly well. My thought process was (and still is) that scum would have known that DethStalker was Town. Therefore, they were deliberately pushing to mislynch. Actions speak louder than words, so given my limited time, I want to focus on those who actually did push the lynch (and those who stood aside and let it happen like somitomi), and see how well their suspicions stack up. I haven't got enough time to look at everyone in detail.

I want to look at the townie reads again (Sabrar, LaserGuy) to decide if that label is still justified, and heuristically_alone to see if his reasoning for voting DethStalker was valid, or if it just adds to his scumminess from yesterday.

To clarify my number of scum on the wagon:
1) If heuristically_alone is scum, then I wouldn't be surprised to see his scum buddy on the wagon with him (i.e. one of Sabrar or LaserGuy), because DethStalker could have switched his vote at any time to get heuristically_alone lynched instead. It's not certain, his buddy could have decided to bus him, but I don't think that's likely in a two scum game.
2) If heuristically_alone is town, I really doubt both Sabrar and LaserGuy are scum, given that I a) had them both as townie, and b) I would have expected scum to spread themselves out when two townies were clearly the most suspicious. It was this case I was talking about earlier.

Jbby of course could still be scum in either case.
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

User avatar
somitomi
Posts: 619
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2015 11:21 pm UTC
Location: can be found in Hungary
Contact:

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby somitomi » Tue Jul 04, 2017 7:58 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:@somitomi is there a reason you decide not to place a vote?

Not a particularly satisfactory one I fear. I wanted to post my vote in the morning, but didn't get around to it before leaving home due to momentary indecision. I was hoping to get back to it, but of course helping my sister move took longer than expected. I duly apologise for my tardiness.
flicky1991 wrote:'m surprised by Mafia's choice of kill. mpolo was not particularly high up in people's town reads. To me that means either (a) the real mafia were getting read as town so they had no better candidate for the kill, or (b) they mistakenly thought mpolo was hinting at having a power.

Strange indeed. I don't recall anything, that could be read as (b), especially since he specifically discouraged people from hinting at their roles.
flicky1991 wrote:I don't think the people that were pushing for DethStalker to be lynched are necessarily suspicious. Even those of us that voted for someone else were generally reading him as scum, right? Scum had no incentive to climb on a wagon that was rolling along fine by itself, since they would only look suspicious after.

Unless the other wagon is voting to lynch a scum (that would be heury), in which case the other scum is either Sabrar or Laserguy. They are at the townie-end of most people's reads list, so I don't think that's likely. Unless they're pretty damn good...
—◯-◯

User avatar
flicky1991
Like in Cinderella?
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:36 pm UTC
Location: London

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:06 pm UTC

History tells us Sabrar is pretty damn good...
any pronouns
----
avatar from marionic
----
Forum Games Discord
(tell me if link doesn't work)
----
NiteSciFi, sci-fi forum that needs more members

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:48 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:History tells us Sabrar is pretty damn good...
Thank you for the compliment but I've never won a game as scum on this site before. :D

User avatar
flicky1991
Like in Cinderella?
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:36 pm UTC
Location: London

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jul 04, 2017 10:06 pm UTC

I guess the mind plays tricks!
any pronouns
----
avatar from marionic
----
Forum Games Discord
(tell me if link doesn't work)
----
NiteSciFi, sci-fi forum that needs more members

User avatar
Madge
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 3:45 am UTC
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Madge » Wed Jul 05, 2017 3:15 am UTC

Happy to offer an extension - how much do you want? A day? Two?

Votals:

None
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jul 05, 2017 6:36 am UTC

I think two would be better.

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4540
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:28 pm UTC

Here's my thoughts on the wagons...

Timeline (serious votes)
Spoiler:
[page 1]
DethStalker votes mpolo
LaserGuy votes mpolo
[page 2]
mpolo votes heury
flicky votes heury (these posts were produced essentially at the same time)
[page 3]
LaserGuy votes DethStalker
Sabrar votes DethStalker
heury votes DethStalker
jimbob votes heury

Final Votals:

Mpolo- (1) - Dethstalker
heuristically_alone - (3) - mpolo, Flicky, jimbob
Dethstalker - (3) - LaserGuy, Sabrar, Heuri
Not voting - (2) - somitomi, Jbby/dimochka

DethStalker is lynched on a 3-3 tie.
mpolo is nightkilled.


Heury's wagon was mostly being pushed by town. mpolo is confirmed town (dead). jimbob is very likely town. flicky I'm unsure about. DethStalker/mpolo vote is null tell since we know both are town.

DethStalker's wagon is a bit more interesting. Suppose heury is scum. In that case, it's very likely that his partner is on this wagon {Sabrar, LaserGuy}, or is Jbby. At a tied vote with two unknowns, it's very unlikely that any scum would be sitting on heury's wagon at this point--they presumably would have contrived to switch to DS. Likewise, I don't think somitomi would have left his vote unused (since he said he did check in before end of day) if he were scum with his partner tied for lynch. Thus, IMHO, if heury is scum, flicky, jimbob and somitomi are all probably town. FMPOV, that would then mean that heury's partner must be of {Sabrar, Jbby}. I'd almost be tempted to say that the game is solved here, since Sabrar's play would have been a pretty risky bus for D1, but this isn't as strong of tell as the above.

Suppose heury is town. In that case, we don't have as much information to work with, since scum didn't need to push in any particular direction, having the choice between two townie wagons. I would say that somitomi is high probability scum in this situation, since I can certain see newbie scum not wanting to be the deciding vote for lynch simply choosing not to vote. Scum has to be two of {somitomi, Sabrar, Jbby, flicky} in, IMHO, roughly order of likelihood.

User avatar
flicky1991
Like in Cinderella?
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:36 pm UTC
Location: London

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:38 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Scum has to be two of {somitomi, Sabrar, Jbby, flicky} in, IMHO, roughly order of likelihood.
Can I assume that's descending order of likelihood?

Also, remember Jbby is now dimochka. Speaking of which... no dim post yet? He's posted in FG so he's back online.
any pronouns
----
avatar from marionic
----
Forum Games Discord
(tell me if link doesn't work)
----
NiteSciFi, sci-fi forum that needs more members

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4540
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:00 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Scum has to be two of {somitomi, Sabrar, Jbby, flicky} in, IMHO, roughly order of likelihood.
Can I assume that's descending order of likelihood?


Yes, that's right.

User avatar
dimochka
Posts: 77
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2011 6:25 pm UTC
Location: A few different places->NYC->LA->NYC. He/Him/His please.

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby dimochka » Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:12 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Scum has to be two of {somitomi, Sabrar, Jbby, flicky} in, IMHO, roughly order of likelihood.
Can I assume that's descending order of likelihood?

Also, remember Jbby is now dimochka. Speaking of which... no dim post yet? He's posted in FG so he's back online.

Hello everyone. I am around, and I have had a chance to read the thread, but not to make an actual post (my post in FG was 1 line long, just asking if that game was still happening) since I flew in this morning directly to work. I will be able to get to things in a few hours when I get home, and be more active going forward (now that I'm caught up with both work and this).
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

User avatar
heuristically_alone
Posts: 279
Joined: Sat Apr 09, 2016 7:43 pm UTC
Location: 37.2368078 and -115.80341870000001

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby heuristically_alone » Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:24 am UTC

I think overall, even though the vote between me and Dethstalker was tied, Dethstalker was seen as more scummy. I find it unlikely for both the scum to be on me. One for sure on Dethstalker if not the other. For sure sure either Laserguy or Sabrar is one of the mafia. Voting me were flicky and jimbob. Not voting were somitomi and jbby/dimochka. I am inclined to believe that the mafia are either sabrar or laserguy, along with jimbob and dimochka. Today I think we should take a look mostly at Sabrar and Laserguy because I think our greatest chance of finding mafia is one of them.

Also, I know I am a strong suspect, so I'd love to answer any questions you have. (Or even if you don't suspect me I will gladly accept any questions)
Bow gifted by adnapemit.

You can learn to levitate with just a little help.

:idea: = Surprised Cyclops

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4540
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:52 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:Grah, OK.


What is this in response to?

I don't think the people that were pushing for DethStalker to be lynched are necessarily suspicious. Even those of us that voted for someone else were generally reading him as scum, right? Scum had no incentive to climb on a wagon that was rolling along fine by itself, since they would only look suspicious after.


Reading back, this statement is very troubling. This is only true if and only if heury is town. Otherwise, scum has a great incentive to vote DethStalker, namely to protect heury. Why didn't this scenario cross your mind, especially considering that you yourself voted for heury?

User avatar
flicky1991
Like in Cinderella?
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:36 pm UTC
Location: London

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:06 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:Grah, OK.


What is this in response to?
The fact that a townie was lynched.

LaserGuy wrote:
I don't think the people that were pushing for DethStalker to be lynched are necessarily suspicious. Even those of us that voted for someone else were generally reading him as scum, right? Scum had no incentive to climb on a wagon that was rolling along fine by itself, since they would only look suspicious after.


Reading back, this statement is very troubling. This is only true if and only if heury is town. Otherwise, scum has a great incentive to vote DethStalker, namely to protect heury. Why didn't this scenario cross your mind, especially considering that you yourself voted for heury?
That's true, but I don't want to make any argument that just assumes heury is scum, despite my read of him on Day 1. He does seem to be falling into less scummy behaviour now.

heuristically_alone wrote:Today I think we should take a look mostly at Sabrar and Laserguy because I think our greatest chance of finding mafia is one of them.
Would you consider either of them mafia based on actual reads now, or is this judgement only based on the votes?
any pronouns
----
avatar from marionic
----
Forum Games Discord
(tell me if link doesn't work)
----
NiteSciFi, sci-fi forum that needs more members

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4540
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:20 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Reading back, this statement is very troubling. This is only true if and only if heury is town. Otherwise, scum has a great incentive to vote DethStalker, namely to protect heury. Why didn't this scenario cross your mind, especially considering that you yourself voted for heury?


That's true, but I don't want to make any argument that just assumes heury is scum, despite my read of him on Day 1.


The problem is that you made an argument that assumes, and only makes sense, if heury is town.

He does seem to be falling into less scummy behaviour now.


What is your read on heury at the moment?

User avatar
flicky1991
Like in Cinderella?
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:36 pm UTC
Location: London

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:25 am UTC

Neutral. There's been plenty of content that looks more like someone actually playing the game, trying to get information and give advice, e.g.:
heuristically_alone wrote:@somitomi is there a reason you decide not to place a vote?
heuristically_alone wrote:Im against cop claiming. While he could still get useful results in the future, wait to claim until cop is about to get mislynched or one of your town results.
I'm unsure about his vote analysis in the last post but not so unsure that I find it scummy, which is why I've questioned him for a bit more. So I'm now a bit more willing to forgive the earlier hiccups as relatively-newbie town trying to get into the swing of things.
any pronouns
----
avatar from marionic
----
Forum Games Discord
(tell me if link doesn't work)
----
NiteSciFi, sci-fi forum that needs more members

User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:33 am UTC

Apologies for the lack of post yesterday. I spent what little free time I had composing this post. Summary version: I don't like heuristically_alone's play from yesterday still. He needs to explain it.

Heuristically_alone reread:
Spoiler:
Post 1 - Fluff
Post 2 - From mafia point of view, would prefer no backup power role.
Post 3 - Prefers matrix6. Prefers town-favouring setups.
Post 4 - Random votes me.
Post 5 - Answers Sabrar about post 3. Still learning, wants things easier.
Post 6 - Unvotes me, responds to my questions with contradictory answers. Likes column C. Thinks I'll be killed, and that Sabrar and I are both scum.
Post 7 - Explains contradiction. "Town isn't ready for that information yet."
Post 8 - Explains first answer was joke. Didn't want to answer the question. Sabrar seems more careful.
Doesn't think Sabrar and I on the same team.
Post 9 - Votes DethStalker for trying to put words in mpolo's mouth. Asks DethStalker what he is saying.
Post 10 - Responds to my read on him. Brings up previous irrelevant accusations. Doesn't respond to my comments about his town not ready for info statement. Likes me soft defence of DethStalker because it may make me seem scummy?! Thinks it's not uncommon to read two people as scummy, but not on same team. Can't remember what he found scummy about Sabrar.
Post 11 - Reads list. Notes that jbby and I did no setup spec. No additional commentary on me or DethStalker. Bothered by Sabrar holding back. Finds flicky town but "very deceitful" - huh? LaserGuy and mpolo towniest. Claims vanilla town.
Post 12 - used to being lynched D1 in mafiascum.
Post 13 - D2. Asks why somitomi didn't vote.
Post 14 - Against cop claiming unless risk of mislynch.
Post 15 - Thinks unlikely both scum voting for him. Thinks likely one of Sabrar or LaserGuy plus me and dimochka likeliest scum.
I have real issues with heuristically_alone's D1 play, some of which I highlighted previously. He was deliberately unhelpful not just in his initial response to my questions, but also his follow-up. He never explained why he felt like town wasn't ready for his answer to my first question. His reads list is a bit weird as well. Firstly, why did he bring up who did and did not do setup spec? Unless he found something scummy (or townie) in this, I can't see any town purpose in this. He doesn't explain his placing me as second scummiest, referring only to his earlier comments, which can be summarised as not liking my questions, I think, which just sounds weak to me. I don't understand what he means by flicky being "very deceitful" either, but I can't see both flicky and heuristically_alone being scum together due to flicky's vote. Most troubling though was his vanilla town claim, despite that being actively harmful to town, even if true, as I noted early D1 (less space for our PRs to hide, in the event that heuristically_alone is not lynched). Also, he put mpolo as towniest, which could be a reason why he killed him (though I admit that this is a bit of a stretch). D2 content has been somewhat better, in that he hasn't been actively unhelpful. However, I'm not too keen on his most recent post, mainly because it gives no thought really for either flicky or somitomi being scum, which is odd.

Reads on other players will happen at some point, but I have no idea when. I am away this weekend, so am unlikely to post then, but will try to post something before then.
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

User avatar
dimochka
Posts: 77
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2011 6:25 pm UTC
Location: A few different places->NYC->LA->NYC. He/Him/His please.

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby dimochka » Thu Jul 06, 2017 8:36 am UTC

Ok so some thoughts to get started (just lost a bigger post because don't have that backup extensions on work laptop):
- Laserguy: feels townie to me. Didn't like his first vote on mpolo (seemed opportunistic and not necessarily logical) but otherwise solid responses and content. I could see a very confident mafia, but seemed a lot more like town.
- flicky: nothing particular stands out, though the analysis regarding why mafia would kill mpolo is very limited and is therefore not helpful. Feels intentionally so. I'd like to understand his scum reads.
- heuristically_alone: distinctly unhelpful on D1 and seemed as trying to avoid answering some questions. but that was already mentioned. claim on d1 was in my opinion not a townie move. I also noticed something that felt like scum setting up targets for d2, but I can't find it now. Going back to look in a moment.
- dethstalker: i thought he was town (but i'm kinda reading in retrospect, so it's biased). But his play was definitely strange. going after mpolo the way he did with reasoning that contradicted itself was not what town should do. Especially since he basically looked at no one else.

More very soon, just wanted to post something. Going to analyze the others and answer my own questions / concerns. Any questions for me please
let me know.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 2 - A Thousand Scythe-Shaped Wounds

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jul 06, 2017 8:56 am UTC

IRL: had a huge backlog from 2 weeks vacation plus end of a quarter-year is super-busy. Should be fine now.

LaserGuy wrote:jimbob is very likely town.
Why? Because jimbob called DethStalker townie correctly? Scum can easily do that, you know. Obviously this only applies if heury is town, if he's scum then I think we can easily clear both jimbob and flicky.
I mostly agree with your voting-analysis in case heury is scum except for clearing somitomi. Could be undecided newbie who doesn't want to seem to be pushing a mislynch.
Your conclusion if heury is town is wrong in my opinion, I absolutely would not clear jimbob in that case.


Return to “Mafia”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests