X-Men Mafia: Resolution

[somitomi]

Quick re-read of LaserGuy shows that he's almost completely ignoring somitomi having only the minimal interaction/read, while somitomi is lurking and flip-flopping about LaserGuy and mpolo before finally voting the latter.

Vote: somitomi

Okay, let's not waste time: I am the Survivor.

[mpolo]

Wow. That actually turned around. I had already sent in my night action (and gave it away, thinking that if I made it through the day, I wouldn't make it through the night). Hopefully, it will be useful.

I'm a little baffled at BoomFrog's setting up a case against LaserGuy and then voting anyone who followed his logic, especially in retrospect, seeing that his logic was correct.

[mpolo]

EBWOP: Somitomi's claim of survivor fits with the information available (no second kill, mafia present), but will have to be examined before being accepted at face value.

[mpolo]

EBWOEBWOP: Of course, since BoomFrog died, the weirdness is pretty moot for this game.

[Sabrar]

Okay, let's not waste time: I am the Survivor.

As mentioned before Survivor is a good false-claim for multiple roles.

Any counterclaims by the way?

Lynching a claimed Survivor at this point is good for Town, so unless someone has a pretty convincing argument I'm going to leave my vote where it is.

[adnapemit]

I received an item last night.
Nothing else to claim.

I think you should claim your role name.

Genuine noob question: how would that help us determine heury's alignment? Or does it serve a different purpose?

It doesn't. I think you have suddenly become number one suspect for scum.

Since BoomFrog was killed and I am sort of doubtful mpolo is scum, somitomi is probably my highest rank for scum but since Sabrar has already started the voting off I don't want to rush things too quickly without another look and proper discussion, there is still a small chance of a SK.

Okay, let's not waste time: I am the Survivor.

Oh, good then if we are wrong it won't matter too much.
I'll feel bad if you are telling the truth and lose but it is also very likely a lie from scum.

Helpful game advice because Somi is still new: Always claim town even if you are an indie. Unless you are in a position where we have to lynch mafia or can bargain with mafia. Always claim town. I learned this the hard way.

[somitomi]

Lynching a claimed Survivor at this point is good for Town, so unless someone has a pretty convincing argument I'm going to leave my vote where it is.

I'm probably biased, but I'm not sure I see the benefit of that. My understanding is that now I'm aligned with town for all intents and purposes because lynching the only scum today is the fastest way to bring the game to its end.

As mentioned before Survivor is a good false-claim for multiple roles.

If I'm not mistaken, mafia has no way of knowing the exact setup, so false-claiming is risky for them. A jester would probably keep doing what I've been doing, that made me look scummy enough for you to vote me. The only danger is that I'm the serial killer, and the abundance of roleblocker and doctor powers means I can't point to there being only one night-kill as proof to my claim. However if mafia is lynched, the game can just be over with a town win, whereas lynching me means the game will surely not end today.

[Sabrar]

1. Lynching you will reveal the setup.
2. Lynching you guarantees at most 1 scum-controlled kill during the night.
3. If you're Survivor scum will never kill you as you may be willing to help them in the endgame. Therefore we cannot count on you being aligned with Town.

[mpolo]

If we had a certain/near-certain scum possibility, that would be preferable to a survivor lynch. However, that is not the case at the moment. (That could change with more participation.)

In favor of somitomi's really being a survivor is that we have no counter-claim; though considering we are planning on lynching the survivors anyway, a real survivor could be laying low rather than counterclaiming.

We've eliminated possibilities 7 and 8 as possible setups. Of the eight remaining possibilities, three have a survivor. Which doesn't mean all that much in a one instance of a game, but it at least makes me feel pretty good about a somitomi lynch.

[Sabrar]

In favor of somitomi's really being a survivor is that we have no counter-claim; though considering we are planning on lynching the survivors anyway, a real survivor could be laying low rather than counterclaiming.

Real survivor should immediately counter-claim, we lynch somitomi who must be the second scum in this case and game is over, Survivor wins.

[Sabrar]

After we lynch somitomi there is maximum 1 scum (Mafia or SK) remaining and no other indies. I support a full role-claim today and coordinating night-actions to guarantee the win.

[Sabrar]

Hi moody! When do you plan to join the conversation?

[moody7277]

Hi moody! When do you plan to join the conversation?

Preparing reads post now from my going over of the thread. Regarding lynching our survivor (assuming somitomi is being truthful), pro is getting confirming info on the setup and removing a possible liability at endgame, con is if they were feeling more likely to help town win (which since scum is down one member seems the safer bet) this might put them off. Course they can't harm us if they're dead.

[bessie]

Sabrar, why are you so sure heury is town? I hope you have more than a gut feeling.

- I don't think it is in heury's repertoire (yet) to open the game the way he did as scum. I think he would be very cautious to post.

I’m not sure I follow you. Can you give me an example of an indicator of this in his early content?

- this is reinforced by the flip, I don't think LaserGuy would try to get out of being lynched by bussing his teammate at such an early stage.

Heury had a lot of suspicion on him, but he never had another vote. So it may have been an attempt at distancing.

I think you should claim your role name.

Genuine noob question: how would that help us determine heury's alignment? Or does it serve a different purpose?

He has limited options. Let’s see what he selects.

[Sabrar]

I’m not sure I follow you. Can you give me an example of an indicator of this in his early content?

He is first to post and immediately jumps into setup analysis while not having read the rules governing it. I think that as newbie!scum he would be much more cautious about putting himself in the spot-light.
Compare it with his opening post in MMM II (where he was SK), he posts only after discussion has already started and mentions only the flavor.

Heury had a lot of suspicion on him, but he never had another vote. So it may have been an attempt at distancing.

That may have been it but it's risky as the both wagon could have picked up by multiple players and having both wagons on scum is very bad from their pov.

[moody7277]

adnapemit- inherited a roleclaim of Gambit. any residual weirdness against her role I'm attributing to PW being a nervous newbie. otherwise neutral to slightly townie

Sabrar- seemingly blase about cult, he says from lack of experience with that faction. Interactions with PW, deep concern over his style (including a willingess to sheep someone). Rest of his analysis on people seems to go along with what I remember of him. Townish.

Huery- made a comment about how a couple of roles would be nightmares if given to scum. My impression was that he was coming at this in a way that looks like he neglected the "roles are randomly assigned" bit. I'm particularly sensitive to this having seen much the same discussion in the two Samlltown games. Has a scummy opinion of Sabrar. Kind of feeling weird about him, despite scum having voted for him. vote shenanigans in favor of LaserGuy. Slightly scummy.

mpolo- was the one worried about Sabrar's downplaying cult, but later improved in his opinion of Sabrar. town->scum list with adnapemit and bessie on top, LaserGuy at bottom. claims Beast. slightly townie.

bessie- good content, some of the analysis I find interesting. Slight town reading might be colored by her amiableness (something I note mpolo mentioned).

somitomi- Some mod questions early, with a joke vote on Sabrar that was removed as their opinion of him declined a bit. attempt at a reads list doesn't come to any conclusions, followed by a town->scum list upon prodding. votes mpolo. claimed survivor. I can provisionally accept that claim, with the caveats given previously.

[heuristically_alone]

quote="bessie"]

heuristically_alone, you look pretty scummy to me. You tied the vote, said you would untie the vote, and then didn’t do it. I was at an important meeting, so I’m not very pleased with you right now. I think you should claim your role name.[/quote]

I had no need untie the vote because Sabrar did it before me. There was no need to at that point. Also I already soft claimed. Also, this may be your scummiest post all game. I am disappointed in you.

Also because of the wagon, Somi is my number one suspect, survivor claim or not.

Oh and there is zero chance Sabrar is not town at this point.

[heuristically_alone]

1. Lynching you will reveal the setup.
2. Lynching you guarantees at most 1 scum-controlled kill during the night.
3. If you're Survivor scum will never kill you as you may be willing to help them in the endgame. Therefore we cannot count on you being aligned with Town.

I am confused by your second point. Can you explain?

[bessie]

And, welcome back moody.

bessie- good content, some of the analysis I find interesting. Slight town reading might be colored by her amiableness (something I note mpolo mentioned).

Yep, still here, still been town in every game (may or may not include current game).

I had no need untie the vote because Sabrar did it before me. There was no need to at that point. Also I already soft claimed. Also, this may be your scummiest post all game. I am disappointed in you.

Your role name please.

Vote: heuristically_alone

[Sabrar]

I am confused by your second point. Can you explain?

Biggest threat to town is if there are multiple kills during the night that are not controlled by them. With PGO dead a single non-Town player can only perform 1 kill per night. (note that Cyclops using the kill cannot do anything else so scum!Cyclops can perform only 1 kill without his/her buddy, same with SK!Cyclops)

There are at most 2 non-town players alive. somitomi is one of them. Lynching him means at most 1 scum left alive, leaving us with a possible mislynch before LYLO.
Obviously town!Cyclops must take care uf s/he wants to shoot.

[heuristically_alone]

Town!cyclops should only shoot at if we are lynching and at a mislynch we lose.

[Sabrar]

I had no need untie the vote because Sabrar did it before me. There was no need to at that point.

Not true. Evolution of votals before day-end (should have done this earlier but work is crazy):

After this post:
mpolo - 4 (BoomFrog, bessie, somitomi, Sabrar)
LaserGuy - 1 (mpolo)
heury - 1 (LaserGuy)

LaserGuy could have hammered next post, but he didn't. Somewhat interesting.
heury could have hammered (he was online) but he didn't.

Together with BoomFrog we switch to LaserGuy:
LaserGuy - 3 (mpolo, BoomFrog, Sabrar)
mpolo - 2 (bessie, somitomi)
heury - 1 (LaserGuy)

Suddenly heury votes mpolo, causing a tie. He could have done it much earlier, this sets up LaserGuy switching to mpolo.
bessie unvotes. It's again 3-2 with LaserGuy leading.
LaserGuy votes mpolo setting up the tie.
heury refuses to budge in the space of multiple posts, despite claiming to understand BoomFrog's explanation why the tie is bad.
Finally bessie comes back and votes LaserGuy with no explanation on how she decided between the two wagons.

Summary:
- LaserGuy didn't hammer mpolo, most likely because he thought the lynch would go through and he didn't want to be on it. Other explanation is that mpolo is his scum-buddy but that doesn't explain why mpolo joined LaserGuy's wagon so early instead of pushing an alternative (e.g. heury).
- heury didn't hammer mpolo, potentially because he's scum and talked it out with LaserGuy (see above point).
- heury then sets up a tie (after I switched) and refuses to break it
- bessie chooses wisely though she doesn't explain herself

@heury: your 'defense' here doesn't hold up at all.

[dimochka]

Current Votals:
Somitomi - 1 (Sabrar)
Heuristically_Alone - 1 (Bessie)

7 alive, 4 to hammer.

Deadline in about two days.

[Deadline Clock]

[somitomi]

I think you should claim your role name.

Genuine noob question: how would that help us determine heury's alignment? Or does it serve a different purpose?

It doesn't. I think you have suddenly become number one suspect for scum.

I don't quite see the connection between the quoted sentence and the reply. Does this question somehow make me even more suspicious?

Helpful game advice because Somi is still new: Always claim town even if you are an indie. Unless you are in a position where we have to lynch mafia or can bargain with mafia. Always claim town. I learned this the hard way.

It's kind of late now, but thanks

[heuristically_alone]

I thought it would be safer to prevent a tie if I didn't vote because I didn't think I could check back.

Vote: LaserGuy

It was Bessiet that untied the vote, not sabrar. I was planning on voting during the last 5 minutes, but alas Bessie voted before and denied me that privelage.

[heuristically_alone]

I thought it would be safer to prevent a tie if I didn't vote because I didn't think I could check back.

Vote: LaserGuy

It was Bessiet that untied the vote, not sabrar. I was planning on voting during the last 5 minutes, but alas Bessie voted before and denied me that privelage.

[heuristically_alone]

My proposed order for everyone claiming. I was thinking I propose maybe after moody, but I'll claim sooner if people want.

1. Somitomi
2. Mpolo
3. Moody
4. Bessie
5. Sabrar
6. Adnaemit

[bessie]

Lynching a claimed Survivor at this point is good for Town, so unless someone has a pretty convincing argument I'm going to leave my vote where it is.

I'm probably biased, but I'm not sure I see the benefit of that. My understanding is that now I'm aligned with town for all intents and purposes because lynching the only scum today is the fastest way to bring the game to its end.

The best way for you to avoid the lynch is to find a better candidate. I suggest you do all you can to dig up the remaining scum. You need to get out of defense mode and start scum hunting.

It was Bessiet that untied the vote, not sabrar. I was planning on voting during the last 5 minutes, but alas Bessie voted before and denied me that privelage.

This is so scummy I don't know where to start.

Oh and there is zero chance Sabrar is not town at this point.

Why so sure? Because he thinks you're town? Oh, and are you going to claim your role name Heury? Do you need some hints?

After this post:
mpolo - 4 (BoomFrog, bessie, somitomi, Sabrar)
LaserGuy - 1 (mpolo)
heury - 1 (LaserGuy)

LaserGuy could have hammered next post, but he didn't. Somewhat interesting.
heury could have hammered (he was online) but he didn't.

They’re both kind of newish. Perhaps they thought it would have looked too scummy to hammer, after I made a big deal about it in this post.

Finally bessie comes back and votes LaserGuy with no explanation on how she decided between the two wagons.

I might have gone for mpolo, but Heury was deliberately running down the clock by saying/implying he was going to switch his vote, and not doing it. He was trying too hard to keep LaserGuy alive.

Sabrar, why are you trying so hard to keep Heury alive?

Ninja'd by heuristically_alone. How about no.

[heuristically_alone]

What is so scummy about me prefering the mpolo lynch but accepting a laserguy lynch instead of a tie? Sabrar even said he saw me online close to deadline. Because i was watching to see if I would need to change vote.

[Sabrar]

Sabrar, why are you trying so hard to keep Heury alive?

Why do you think? Do you imagine I have an ulterior motive doing so?
The mechanically correct choice is to lynch somitomi today. We can talk about heury tomorrow if it comes to that.

Sabrar even said he saw me online close to deadline.

Nope, I was nowhere close to the forum at deadline. I saw you after I voted mpolo.

[Sabrar]

@heury: it would be really for the best if you just claimed your role right now.

@bessie: you shouldn't look for connections between still living players. Just focus on LaserGuy and what the voting tells us.

[bessie]

What is so scummy about me prefering the mpolo lynch but accepting a laserguy lynch instead of a tie? Sabrar even said he saw me online close to deadline. Because i was watching to see if I would need to change vote.

You were waiting to see if you needed to change your vote? Sabrar and I both said we probably wouldn’t be around at deadline. You told BoomFrog you would change your vote to LaserGuy. What were you waiting for? I think the clock.

The mechanically correct choice is to lynch somitomi today. We can talk about heury tomorrow if it comes to that.

Ok, do you want to get it over with and lynch somitomi now, or do you think we should keep talking? We have another day and a half. I know this brilliant player who once gave some excellent advice about using all your time wisely.

@bessie: you shouldn't look for connections between still living players. Just focus on LaserGuy and what the voting tells us.

I’m not looking for connections between still living players. I'm imagining ulterior motives.

[Sabrar]

@bessie: please point out to me which part of my content you mistook for 'wanting to end the day early'. My early vote on somitomi was mainly intended to get a reaction and I was successful in doing so. That doesn't mean I don't want to talk it out.

@all: I'd like a full-claim which obviously won't happen until people realize that this is a turbo and posting just once per day is nowhere near enough.

@Cyclops: as things stand currently it is important that you don't shoot tonight.

[Sabrar]

@bessie: do you think that this is all just distancing?

@moody: because of Gopher of Pern's lack of interaction with anyone you are currently a possible scum-mate of LaserGuy. Why should you not be lynched D3 if somitomi is actually Survivor?

[Sabrar]

BTW if we end up doing a mass-claim today then somitomi needs to claim last to give the potential scum less chance to lie.

[Sabrar]

Also puppies.

[Sabrar]

The only relevant way to mess with town's powers is Professor X's redirection. Luckily that role cannot be false-claimed, therefore I would like to ask Professor X or his chat-buddy to claim. If no one does so then we can assume that the role is not in the game and after that full-claim should guarantee the win 99% of the time.

[somitomi]

The best way for you to avoid the lynch is to find a better candidate. I suggest you do all you can to dig up the remaining scum. You need to get out of defense mode and start scum hunting.

I know, I'm on it

That may have been it but it's risky as the both wagon could have picked up by multiple players and having both wagons on scum is very bad from their pov.

That seems to indicate LaserGuy was eventually bussed by his scum-mate if they voted, because only me, LaserGuy and heury voted on mpolo, and heury has been ruled out.

ninja'd by Sabrar

[mpolo]

Sorry for disappearing for too many hours there.

I have already fully claimed, and will not be changing that claim. I.e. Beast and Town. Adnapemit has revealed the reception of my gift. The nature of the gift should make it fairly clear that I am town at this point (scum would have given something less obviously useful for town, IMO). But that's up to adnapemit to reveal.

[adnapemit]

Oh and there is zero chance Sabrar is not town at this point.

Very low but still higher than zero.

In favor of somitomi's really being a survivor is that we have no counter-claim; though considering we are planning on lynching the survivors anyway, a real survivor could be laying low rather than counterclaiming.

It would be more beneficial for them to counterclaim in this case than lay low.

I don't quite see the connection between the quoted sentence and the reply. Does this question somehow make me even more suspicious?

There isn't one. The first sentence was a response and the second was just my opinion. I should have put it on two separate lines.

Also puppies.