Refrigerator Mafia - Post Game - The Eternal Soup

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Sabrar
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:25 am UTC

Almost missed this.
bessie wrote:I agree with this, I think (what do you mean by a “good” signal?).
Beneficial to the intended recipient.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Peaceful Whale » Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:09 am UTC

1. I feel like Sabar is *mabye* defending plytho too much. Does it remind anyone X-man? Where Sabar knew something and wanted to keep scum alive? He does bring up some interesting points. But plytho is still my scummiest read. I can see where sabar is coming from. Mislynching is bad
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Peaceful Whale » Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:09 am UTC

2. Bessie, is everything okay?
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:01 am UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:1. I feel like Sabar is *mabye* defending plytho too much. Does it remind anyone X-man? Where Sabar knew something and wanted to keep scum alive?
This is nonsense. I was Town in X-men and I never wanted to keep alive scum. I also had zero additional info.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Peaceful Whale » Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:22 am UTC

Didn't you have chat with a scum player? Or am I thinking of someone else, if so ignore that post.
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Sabrar
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:31 am UTC

You're confusing me with heury.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Peaceful Whale » Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:53 am UTC

Oh...
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:37 am UTC

Did anyone have any specific questions for me before deadline?
any pronouns
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Peaceful Whale » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:04 pm UTC

Who's the scummiest on your list, and who's the towniest(besides you).

Scummiest: plytho

Towniest: Bessie

I think we should all do this, I think it will help us lynching in the future.

Anyone see huery recently? Or moody for that matter...
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:13 pm UTC

If that's meant for me, I already provided an ordered list.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:26 pm UTC

I won't be around again before deadline, by the way. I think I'm happy with where my vote is now anyway.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Znirk » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:37 pm UTC

From Sabrar's ordered list:
Sabrar wrote:moody (don't like his vote being the 5th wagon)
Znirk (haven't played with town!Znirk too much, I misread him in MMM II, don't like his vote being the 6th wagon)

The more I think about this, the less I like it. Sabrar, you seem to be saying that there is a cutoff (either by time or by number of lynch vote targets) after which players should not bring up new potential lynchees. You seem to be saying that the first few players to make up their minds define the set of lynch candidates, and everyone else merely gets to pick whom to follow. You seem to be saying that people voting late in the day ought to vote in opposition to their own reads, if that is where early public opinion points.

Is this a reasonably fair restatement of your opinion? And if it is: care to justify that opinion?


-->Peaceful Whale, for scummiest/towniest refer to my reread and ordered list on the previous page.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:40 pm UTC

The more time passes the more I'm convinced that plytho would be a mislynch.

Ninja'd by Znirk, will reply.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:49 pm UTC

I believe that there is indeed a cut-off point (based on both time and number of lynch-targets) after which introducing a new lynch-target is most likely ineffective. If that player was not suspected before and there are a lot of other possible candidates then I think it is highly unlikely that based on a single person's read there will suddenly be a huge push towards that new candidate. Therefore I see opening a new wagon after that cut-off point (which I couldn't define in exact terms but rather feel it) as wanting to avoid being on the wagon that will most likely happen. Obviously this should not be taken as a certain scum-tell but to me it somewhat implies it.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby plytho » Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:28 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:Anyone see huery recently? Or moody for that matter...
Heury's been away for 2 days, this is from his last post:
heuristically_alone wrote:It has been a crazy couple of days but I should have time later today to give some reads and address a couple points I made at me.
I see he's been online between now and then so I'm moving him down my list. I have some symathy for the crazy days but it's around 46h since his last post and 22h since he was last online. He could have at least said something about the list being delayed.
Updated town-to-scum
plytho
Peaceful Whale
LaserGuy
bessie
Sabrar
Znirk

moody
heury
flicky

I feel like LaserGuy may be a bit too high and Znirk a bit too low but Sabrar and bessie feel right somehow. None of those 4 really feel scummiest (that gap is there for a reason), they're all feeling pretty townie but I wouldn't be surprised if one of them turned out to be scum.

I'd just as happily vote for heury instead of flicky. I'd more reluctantly vote for moody if it would save me and I really want to avoid voting for anyone else.

bessie wrote:List coming soon, let me organize my thoughts.
How soon? I'd like to see where you stand on people that aren't me :D
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:34 pm UTC

@plytho: do you really think that the wagon on you is entirely town-driven?

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby plytho » Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:46 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@plytho: do you really think that the wagon on you is entirely town-driven?

I hadn't thought of it that way. Good point (baah). I figured I could understand why townies would vote for me at this point. But yeah, the scum team probably put one of them on the wagon. I feel like one is much more likely than both.
Possible scum on the wagon: Not Peaceful Whale, so bessie or LaserGuy. As I said:
plytho wrote:I feel like LaserGuy may be a bit too high and Znirk a bit too low but Sabrar and bessie feel right somehow. None of those 4 really feel scummiest (that gap is there for a reason), they're all feeling pretty townie but I wouldn't be surprised if one of them turned out to be scum.

I won't be surprised if one of them turns out to be scum but I'm not seeing who it could be at this point.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Znirk » Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:51 pm UTC

-->Sabrar, thanks for elaborating. I'm satisfied with that.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby bessie » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:51 pm UTC

town
bessie
Peaceful Whale
Znirk
moody7277
LaserGuy
Sabrar
heuristically_alone
flicky1991
plytho
scum

I meant to post this last night but fell asleep screwing with this list. It still doesn't feel right, and I've already rearranged it since I started this post. I'll be around for another hour.

bessie's real life
Spoiler:
Thanks for asking everyone. A friend's mom is in the hospital. The friend lives in another state so I said I would help out for a couple days until she could get here. So I'm fine just tired and spread a little thin for a few days.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby plytho » Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:08 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:The more time passes the more I'm convinced that plytho would be a mislynch.

I'm happy you're becoming convinced. I'd like to get an alternative wagon started to lynch scum and save me, unfortunately your reads list deviates quite a bit from mine. You don't want to vote flicky or Heury and I don't want to vote LaserGuy or Znirk.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby plytho » Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:27 pm UTC

moody, Znirk, I see you guys are online. You've both said you were willing to vote for flicky as an alternative. Care to cast that vote now?
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby moody7277 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:49 pm UTC

plytho wrote:moody, Znirk, I see you guys are online. You've both said you were willing to vote for flicky as an alternative. Care to cast that vote now?


For me, that would be a bit of an OMGUS, but I can review him and decide. I was also thinking about voting heury since he's gone completely dark.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:51 pm UTC

My main problem is that I'm not comfortable with voting anyone other than LaserGuy. And if we mislynch e.g. flicky that won't tell us anything about your wagon and you'll be very probably lynched D2 regardless of what you do.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby bessie » Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:56 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I believe that there is indeed a cut-off point (based on both time and number of lynch-targets) after which introducing a new lynch-target is most likely ineffective. If that player was not suspected before and there are a lot of other possible candidates then I think it is highly unlikely that based on a single person's read there will suddenly be a huge push towards that new candidate. Therefore I see opening a new wagon after that cut-off point (which I couldn't define in exact terms but rather feel it) as wanting to avoid being on the wagon that will most likely happen. Obviously this should not be taken as a certain scum-tell but to me it somewhat implies it.
Agree with this but I don’t have time to get in to a philosophical discussion right now. I will say that I’m not happy with the end of day lurking. Town lurkers, if you’re not posting or waiting until just before deadline to post, you’re doing it wrong. Scum, good job you’ve managed to slide by and make it to D2 without any suspicion. Or so you think. If I’m around I will be looking at you. Sabrar and I had a disagreement once (once!?) because he thought everyone should be voting on one of two wagons so that the votes would be easier to analyze. And I disagreed, because you can analyze a vote that’s not on a wagon too.

Ninja'd. moody, thanks for posting. I've got to leave for work and I very likely won't be back before deadline, I will try to check. Is deadline hard or soft?

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:00 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Is deadline hard or soft?
Didn't find it in the rules. Best to assume hard.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby heuristically_alone » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:01 pm UTC

Guys I am so sorry! Got so caught up then fell asleep last night while reading up. I work in 15 min but quick post.

Town:
Heury

Peaceful Whale- very newbie town feel, but seems quite honest in effort to give reads. I was not meaning to rolefish as I was not expecting him to reveal roles, just trying tonsee if he would divulge that his weird apple reference was just weird flavor dor something more

Bessie- feeling more comfortable now then I was at the beginning. Feels more like normal Bessie pressuring as I've read in other games

Sabrar- feels very typical Sabrar town as well. Both games I've seen him as scum, I was suspicious of it D1

Laserguy- Lots of good questions and scum hunting. Seems to be putting pressure in the right places. Seems to do this as both scum and town. Doesn't understand my meta too well, but I understand often things I say seem scummy so his push on me feels town.

Moody- here lies my most rounded neutral read. I can't recall anything outstanding upon thinking about him. I remember feeling a little skeptical of his early reads list.

Znirk- has active lurked most of the game (not that I am one to talk) didnt like the feel of fabrication from some of his reads

Flicky- Still not satisfied with his attempt at scum hunting. Seems like struggling a bit to give some solid reads

Plytho- biggest scum read. Has felt like he has been trying too hard to appear as town to replicate his last astounding scum game

VOTE: Plytho

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby plytho » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:07 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:
plytho wrote:moody, Znirk, I see you guys are online. You've both said you were willing to vote for flicky as an alternative. Care to cast that vote now?


For me, that would be a bit of an OMGUS, but I can review him and decide. I was also thinking about voting heury since he's gone completely dark.
As I said, I'd happily vote for Heury.


Sabrar wrote:My main problem is that I'm not comfortable with voting anyone other than LaserGuy. And if we mislynch e.g. flicky that won't tell us anything about your wagon and you'll be very probably lynched D2 regardless of what you do.
I understand your position.

bessie wrote:Sabrar and I had a disagreement once (once!?)
:lol:

ninja:
heuristically_alone wrote:VOTE: Plytho
Oh, well, I guess that's it :(

heuristically_alone wrote:Plytho- biggest scum read. Has felt like he has been trying too hard to appear as town to replicate his last astounding scum game

What do you even mean by that?

This really feels like lurker scum coming in at the last second because there's a bit of heat.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby plytho » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:08 pm UTC

unvote

Vote: heuristically_alone
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby plytho » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:15 pm UTC

So, if moody is willing to vote heury after his post it's 4 for me and 3 for heury. Flicky won't change his vote anymore.

In princess leia's words: "help me, Sabrar, you're my only hope!"

(and then I need to survive the coin toss :? )
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:17 pm UTC

Is deadline soft or hard?

I'm online for max half an hour, though I doubt it matters at this point. You can check back previous games, D1 lynch never caught scum if there was no counterwagon and scum didn't lurk.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:18 pm UTC

EBWOP: nope, not going to vote for heury. WIFOM all the way.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - Pregame

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:20 pm UTC

Thank you Bessie. Helpful and accurate vtotals. :)

The refrigerator door started to open...

Current vote totals:

(1) moody7277 - flicky1991
(1) LaserGuy - Sabrar
(4) plytho - bessie, Peaceful Whale, LaserGuy, heuristically_alone
(1) Znirk - moody7277
(2) heuristically_alone - Znirk, plytho

Not voting - no one...

9 Players Alive, 5 votes to reach majority and lynch.

Deadline is Tuesday 11am PDT in less then 2 hours.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby moody7277 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:30 pm UTC

flicky's posts

Spoiler:
post 1: fluff about account troubles
post 2: joke votes Sabrar
post 3: batonage with Sabrar
post 4: setup and power spec
post 5: unvotes

end of the opening moves. nothing out of the ordinary so far

post 6: some more setup spec and pointing out heury's suspicion of LaserGuy trying to analyse joke votes as being overboard
post 7: further talk on the last point from post 6

as I had said previously, SDK had success in doing this sort of thing, so flicky's point about heury going over the top in suspecting LaserGuy for doing it is well taken

post 8: Informing PW about Sabrar and bessie posting habits
post 9: comment on bessie's meta read of huery
post 10: sort of reads on people. no real conclusions on anyone, with notes on lack of content from some of us.
post 11: some responses to PW
post 12: questioning a couple of Sabrar's reads (mildly townie looking behavior)
post 13: dubious of a sample setup bessie made (something else that looked townie as the was part of "getting into the weeds" I mentioned previously)
post 14: votes me for lack of content (fair enough I suppose)
post 15: response to PW about voting with several days to go is not a bad thing

falls into the townie end of my relaxed town/nervous scum paradigm

post 16: more discussion with PW on where he might put his vote (but not in a pushy way)
post 17: circles back to his reading of LaserGuy and concludes town. dubious of bessie's read on me

I can say she's played a lot more games with me, so she knows my default meta is slightly scummy

post 18: continuing discussion on read of LaserGuy with meta included
post 19: more discussion of LaserGuy read. Maybe a small amount of frustration creeping in.
post 20: full reads with conclusions at the request of plytho. towniest PW and heury, scummiest me and plytho, who he calls the possible scum team in response to my question
post 21: defense of plytho read based on content

btw, the whole "in the weeds" area would be perfect for slipping in active lurking, which is where the plytho wagon is maybe getting its fuel. I was even pondering a bessis-plytho scumteam for a while based on their interaction despite my town read of her.

post 22: defense of his read of huery. (I think the reasoning on this one is a little weak)
post 23-25: signing off for the end of D1

Summarizing: I don't think I could vote for flicky given what I see here.

Doing a summary of heury next. We are definitely in the vote shenanigans zone.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Znirk » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:39 pm UTC

plytho wrote:moody, Znirk, I see you guys are online. You've both said you were willing to vote for flicky as an alternative. Care to cast that vote now?

Just quickly: I don't have you as a very strong town read (you're at the "seems reasonable with nothing that stands out as scummy" level), and I'm not entirely happy with your focus on planning how to save you rather than explaining why this is something we should try.

Someone being this intent on personal survival feels a little itchy. Of course it's great to lynch scum on day 1, but a mislynch at this point shouldn't be catastrophic. Why does town absolutely need you to be in the game tomorrow? Or is it perhaps that you're mafia, or independent?

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:42 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
Sabrar wrote:So you're openly contemplating the possibility of me and plytho being scum-buddies twice and then you're wondering why I'm reacting to it. Sure.

I have a feeling that I've seen this happen before. Was it jimbob in Dark Tower, bessie? [/quote

]This comment did concern me a bit. I think the intent is to point me toward my super scummy read of jimbob in that game and SDK’s deflection away from jimbob and back toward me, which was disappointingly missed by everyone else. The concern is because I’m not sure yet if LaserGuy is trying to influence my read, or if he is just making a note.


This back-and-forth between you and Sabrar reminded me of you doing a similar thing, pretty sure it was to jimbob, where you made a sort of leading comment about... SK I think it was?... and he jumped at it pretty hard. I'll try to dig up the post later if you want, don't have time right now. Was curious if that was what you were going for.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:43 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Is deadline soft or hard?

No one may post or change votes after the deadline has passed regardless of if I've posted or not. So, I think that translates to hard deadline.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Znirk » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:44 pm UTC

Post-posting edit: Yes, I guess I am effectively role-fishing in Lake Plytho. If you're a critical town power role, looks to me like you can own up at this point. Scum will then presumably kill you, but at least we might not waste the lynch on doing their dirty work for them.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Peaceful Whale » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:55 pm UTC

It could be that he's a power tool, or he and Sabar are masons, etc.

But I am even more certain of my vote. The way plytho is defending himself... I just feel like it's something scum would do.

Sabar right now I'm torn, Plytho's been on my imaginary scum list for a while, I'm not so sure I'm going to change my vote unless I'm convinced that plytho is scum. I'd probably follow a veteran's logic, and more than likely agree with them. But Bessie and Sabar are disagreeing.

I'd feel horrible if we end up killing a town. If we do we may loose... :cry: I don't want to lose.

I know we've got to lynch someone, but maybe we should all review REALLY hard on our choices. I know I am. Just so we're more likely to get scum.

What's the use of nights? Does it give scum time to plan? What is night/daychat? Is it A separate fora or something? Is their something I'm missing?
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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plytho
¡This cheese is burning me!
Posts: 176
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2008 6:23 pm UTC

Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby plytho » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:59 pm UTC

Znirk wrote:Post-posting edit: Yes, I guess I am effectively role-fishing in Lake Plytho. If you're a critical town power role, looks to me like you can own up at this point. Scum will then presumably kill you, but at least we might not waste the lynch on doing their dirty work for them.

I don't have a critical role, I'd have claimed hours ago if I did. I just like to play this game and living townies are better than dead ones :D
You were reading flicky as scummier than me so I figured you'd be open to switch your vote. At this point it's all moot since I can't survive anymore with absent people having locked their votes in.
Pronouns: he him his
Avatar: The High Frontier by Angus McKie

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moody7277
Posts: 616
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:06 pm UTC
Location: Extreme south Texas

Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby moody7277 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:01 pm UTC

heury's posts

Spoiler:
post 1: joke unvotes, calls out jester
post 2: clarification of post 1
post 3: setup spec
post 4: views LaserGuy analysing joke votes as scum plausibility arguments. reads on bessie, plytho, and Sabrar all seem to be townie based on standard behavior
post 5: response to point in post 4 downplaying the against analysis part.
post 6: defending reads of bessie and Sabrar
post 7: brings up meta from other mafia sites
post 8: questions my reads list for having too many neutral reads, defense of Znirk's lurkiness
post 9: circling back to his part in the joke phase discussion, Laserguy slightly townie
post 10: suspicious of Znirk for being unoriginal in his reads with a conclusion of scummy feeling. commenting on PW's apple remark
post 11: looking for scum!Sabrar meta, concludes with no suspicion of him yet. question for bessie

post 12:
I feel like most players as town would tend to be more stubborn and stick to their guns, while mafia will be more willing to appear open minded. So for me I feel like showing a willingness to reconsider would be more scum indicative.


In one way I agree because scum would be happy with any target besides their own they would have leeway to build any sort of "case" they wanted. OTOH, I would think town's lack of knowledge (especially D1) would make for less definitive opinions than heury thinks. As I've said before, certainty is for scum.

post 13&14: commenting on PW's second apple related remark.
post 15: questions plytho on his meta and flicky on his vote for me.
post 16: town to scum list with plytho at bottom. votes plytho with the notice of hammer minus one.

this post came almost immedately after I mentioned him going dark. Coincidence? I think SO.

Basically, heury seems kind of floaty, mostly surface discussion. If it were a day till the deadline instead of an hour, I'd be willing to switch to voting him, but I'm nervous about shenanigans.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.


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