Refrigerator Mafia - Post Game - The Eternal Soup

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flicky1991
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:48 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:Does anyone else think flickies read on huery is maybe too townie? She put him above Bessie... if he flips scum... that would look bad for flicky wouldn't it? Or would scum be trying to distance themselves at this point?
Who is "she" in this context? I'm a he.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Peaceful Whale » Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:49 pm UTC

Ummm, maybe you, I can never remember all those pronouns, but I've got it now.

Everyone but Bessie is a male right?
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:51 pm UTC

Just confirming you meant me, I don't care too much. :P

Putting other scum really high on your town-list is not common for scum. Scum tend to start putting their scum-mates low on the list once they look suspicious so they don't seem suspicious later, if that makes sense.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:58 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:I'm thinking flicky may have huery so up on the town list becuase he knows something... could he be a role detector or something? And does he know huery is town/power role? I don't know why else Huery would be above Bessie, (and maybe Sabar) Flicky is obviously right about Peaceful Whale though. :D


Znirk was a cop, so it's pretty unlikely that flicky is as well... duplicate roles (excluding vanilla) are pretty uncommon.

flicky wrote:Putting other scum really high on your town-list is not common for scum. Scum tend to start putting their scum-mates low on the list once they look suspicious so they don't seem suspicious later, if that makes sense.


I don't think this is really true. Scum don't usually put their partners as absolute towniest or absolute scummiest, but I've seen pretty much everywhere in between. I suspect that on balance, the most likely place to find a scumbuddy is the average position of all of the townies, but the variance is pretty huge.

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Sabrar
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Sabrar » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:24 pm UTC

Reread heury in isolation. Not saying that his content was the greatest but I didn't get any serious pings and there are a couple of posts that look very much like coming from townie perspective.
Reread others' interaction with him, focusing on the case(s) against him. I can maybe see a couple of valid points but I don't think they're relevant.

@Peaceful Whale: you made an honest mistake. Therefore it's more likely that when you make another 'mistake' it's honest as well. I didn't meant to be derogatory in any way, I apologize if it came out like that.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:27 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
flicky wrote:Putting other scum really high on your town-list is not common for scum. Scum tend to start putting their scum-mates low on the list once they look suspicious so they don't seem suspicious later, if that makes sense.


I don't think this is really true. Scum don't usually put their partners as absolute towniest or absolute scummiest, but I've seen pretty much everywhere in between. I suspect that on balance, the most likely place to find a scumbuddy is the average position of all of the townies, but the variance is pretty huge.
It might not be a strict rule, but it's common. I was just making the other side of the coin clearer to Whale. Plus I was specifically talking about the case where scum is already starting to look scummy - I got the impression Whale already considered heury scummy and was therefore thinking I'd look suspicious if heury flips scum.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Peaceful Whale » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:30 pm UTC

No, it's fine. It's really hard for me to remember stuff, I've got multiple tabs open on my phone and I'm going back and forth trying to make sense of all this. No offense taken.
(Yes, I haven't ever posted ANYTHING from a computer, I don't have one. Except my pi zero which is right now my little game boy)

(So no whining when you guys have to post from a phone)
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Sabrar » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:42 pm UTC

TOWN
Peaceful Whale
flicky
heury
bessie

-------------------

moody7277
LaserGuy
SCUM

Very hard to order the top half as I read them all townie (though for different reasons). bessie is only at the bottom because as most experienced she's the most likely to fake it.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:44 pm UTC

First thought in flicky's mind: ooh, Sabrar's list is much like mine. That must mean I'm on the right track.

Second: I really hope I've not been influenced by scum!Sabrar the whole game...
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Peaceful Whale » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:47 pm UTC

Huery is above Bessie again.... am I missing something? Or is this right old rivalry between Bessie and Sabar. Also if Sabar is scum............
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Sabrar » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:55 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:Huery is above Bessie again.... am I missing something?

You are missing the explanation at the bottom.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:06 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:@Sabrar,

Suppose I'm lynched tonight and flip town (and you survive the night). Who do you think would then be scum?


moody + X, where X changes constantly depending on which of my reads I'm trusting most.


So whether I flip town or scum doesn't change your reads at all?

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Sabrar » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:14 pm UTC

Regarding moody, probably not. Obviously if you flip town then I'll have to look elsewhere for his buddy.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby moody7277 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:17 pm UTC

Kinda surprised that with all the reads of mostly scummy on me, I don't have but flicky's vote on me yet. People waiting until closer to the deadline?
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Peaceful Whale » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:21 pm UTC

Sigh I'm just an idiot, thanks Sabar for pointing that out.
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:22 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Regarding moody, probably not. Obviously if you flip town then I'll have to look elsewhere for his buddy.


So you see moody and I as scummy independently of each other?

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:36 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:Fabricated wasn't quite the right word. More like he was just sheeping other players' reads. Ironically his only original read was on me.


Which specific reads do you feel he was doing that?

heuristically_alone wrote:It felt like he was trying to replicate his "look at me I'm town" but it came across as less townie looking this game.


This is just repeating what you said in your original read. What does this actually mean?

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Peaceful Whale » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:56 pm UTC

@lazerguy remember when plytho said, "hey guys! Scum have day chat! I just remembered!" And the Bessie said "yeah, thanks for that, now we know you're not scum" and then plytho did then same thing, to which Bessie said, "thanks again for reminding us you're town". But I think she knew that second time bassicly screamed" I'm a townie pls believe me". St least that's what I thought.
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby bessie » Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:05 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:bessie:
Waded through the plytho/bessie debate again in light of plytho's flip and assuming that plytho was looking for his scumbuddies, I can kind of see how he might have interpreted the Rule #2 business as bessie hinting that she expects a three person mafia. I don't know that there is really anything there, but I'm noting for completeness. I'll throw a couple scum points bessie's way to be safe. The meta read bessie gave on heury is rubbing me the wrong way a bit, as I've hinted above. It's based on only two games' worth of data, both with heury town, and one of which has a counterexample. Backs off quickly and never brings it up again. There's an inconsistency that she originally said she looked over the three games she says she had with him, but when I brought this up later she said she'd only read two. On reflection, going to give her a scum lean.

You’re tossing me a few scum points because plytho thought I might be mafia and then changed his mind? It looks like you’re digging for a reason to toss scum points at me.

Re: heury. You are correct that I usually don’t do these type of meta reads, at least not early or on newer players, because it’s not my strong point. Neither is looking for PR tells or breadcrumbs, but I gave it a shot anyway with Znirk’s content. Or is this just an excuse for another toss?

I sorted and looked over heury’s posts in MMM II, I didn’t reread the game.

Peaceful Whale wrote:Ummm, maybe you, I can never remember all those pronouns, but I've got it now.

Everyone but Bessie is a male right?
Of the current regular players, Madge, adnapemit, kalira, and I prefer female pronouns. Like flicky, I’m not too bothered about it, but because of the type of posts we make in this game, you need to be clear as to whom you are referring. And we all try to be respectful and do our best to use everyone's preferred pronouns.

LaserGuy wrote:Znirk was a cop, so it's pretty unlikely that flicky is as well... duplicate roles (excluding vanilla) are pretty uncommon.
Did you not read bessie’s latest setup speculation? Perhaps we have a backup.


Updated reads

flicky1991 – Reads list D2, very few changes from D1, really just LaserGuy shifted. Notes that he still needs to review LaserGuy’s past games. Scum read on moody seems to be largely for lack of content? I think moody’s given more content than heury, but moody's style is different.

heuristically_alone – What content he gives us is OK, I don’t like that he has to be prodded so much for that content. There’s actually some good observations/questions there but no follow through which could be he’s busy, not really following closely, or doesn’t care because it’s just active lurking.

LaserGuy – forms pretty strong opinions, he does this as town or scum. I’ve flipped a lot on him this game, more than I have discussed here. I think that my read on LaserGuy is perhaps more influenced by outside factors then my read of anyone else in this game (by this I mean meta, previous game content, and other stuff not directly posted in this thread). He’s trying to influence my reads, but that's what we’re all doing to each other, as town and scum (although the amount varies by alignment). This post is probably influencing my read the most. I had him as pretty scummy up until that post. He went after Sabrar and plytho pretty aggressively, was it too aggressively for someone that knew that plytho would flip "not currently mafia"?

moody7277 – moody’s content (quantity, style, etc) is entirely within his meta. I’m a little surprised to see the wrong call on Znirk, because my experience has been that if moody is town, his reads will be pretty accurate. Maybe I should be concerned after all.

Peaceful Whale – D1 was a solid newbie town read, but also influenced by the unofficial D1 lynch immunity sometimes granted to new players. D2 I’m trying to dig in to a little more. I see a lot of mistakes but also an effort to learn and contribute to the game.

Sabrar – Town. I wasn’t sure until D2.


Town-scum list… is not going well. Basically I have Sabrar, and everyone else in a group that shifts every time I look at it.

town
Sabrar
Peaceful Whale
moody7277
flicky1991
heuristically_alone
LaserGuy
scum

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Peaceful Whale » Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:14 am UTC

What's a backup role, just another cop?
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby bessie » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:04 am UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:What's a backup role, just another cop?

The town universal backup is the variation most often used on this forum. The backup starts the game with no powers, just like a vanilla townie, and inherits the power of the first townie to die, either by lynch or night kill. On this forum, the backup is usually aware that they are the backup.

Mods use the role to balance the game, so that an important power role is not lost on D1. Take for example bessie’s latest setup speculation:

2 mafia goons
1 mafia recruit
1 town cop
1 town doctor
1 bulletproof townie
1 town backup
2 masons

If the cop was mislynched D1 and the doctor killed N1, D2 might be too unbalanced to be considered a fair consequence of a D1 mislynch. In this case, the backup would inherit the cop role. The doctor power would still be lost.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 18, 2017 4:30 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:So you see moody and I as scummy independently of each other?

Yes. I usually don't put much effort in trying to figure out connections between players as it all turns into WIFOM in my head as soon as I start to think about it.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 18, 2017 7:02 am UTC

Probably won't be around during deadline. Comfortable with either of my scum-reads as the lynch but would prefer LaserGuy. Can switch to moody if that's the consensus.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:12 am UTC

Unofficial votals:

(2) heuristically_alone - moody7277, LaserGuy
(2) LaserGuy - Sabrar, heuristically_alone
(1) moody7277 - flicky1991

Not voting - bessie, Peaceful Whale

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:41 am UTC

@Peaceful Whale: when do you plan to vote?

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:18 pm UTC

Unvote

Vote: LaserGuy

My scum read on him isn't as strong, but as the votes stand it will be random between LG and heury - I might've let a heury lynch go ahead if it wasn't for the fact that my two scummiest reads are the ones voting for him.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Peaceful Whale » Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:37 pm UTC

I'm still thinking, I'm fine with huery, flicky, or lazerguy. I still feel that something is off about lazerguy, it could be that he's worried about being lynched....I think I'll just go with the flow.

Vote Lazerguy
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Peaceful Whale » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:12 pm UTC

unvote

Crap, this puts him too close to hammer doesn't it? Hmm let me add it up... 3 votes, 7 players, that's L-1 right? Scum could easily jump on that.
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:17 pm UTC

@Peaceful Whale: you already hammered. Please stop posting.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby Peaceful Whale » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:20 pm UTC

I'm sorry.
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:04 pm UTC

The door would be open soon, but the food didn't wait. The pushed the door open from the inside and shoved LaserGuy out to spill on the floor. Good, that way the family would know he was spoiled and wouldn't eat him!

The boys came in the room. "Why the bread on the floor, and you fridge door open?" "I'don'know" "We'll it's fine, whatever."

Timmy ate the bread. He said it was fine! LaserGuy wasn't spoiled, they'd chosen wrong.


LaserGuy was: Bread - 1-shot bullet proof. Night actions are being processed now.
Full role PM:
Spoiler:
Bread - 1-shot bullet proof

You are a loaf of white bread. You can lose a few slices and still be good to eat. You will not die the first time you are killed at night. This does not protect you from the lynch. You will be informed if your protection is used up.

Your alignments is Town. You win when all threats to town have been eliminated or that outcome in inevitable.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D2 - Rest in Pieces

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:13 pm UTC

Everyone was aghast at what they had done. Almost destroyed good food. They were lucky Timmy wasn't shy about eating off the floor. But then they all turned around. Shockingly, no other food was ruined. Something had happened, but what it was, wasn't obvious.

Dinner would be coming soon. They had to prepare. There was still bad food in the refrigerator.

Salt and Sugar preserve us all. Amen.


No one was eliminated in the night.

6 players alive. 4 votes to reach majority and lynch.

It is MYLO. Barring the interactions of powers, a mislynch now will mean town loses the game.

I'll be traveling next Tuesday so deadline is Wednesday the 23rd, 11am PDT.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby heuristically_alone » Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:32 pm UTC

Possible reasons that there was no kill:

1. Scum withheld kill
2. A second bullet proof player
3. Doctor save
4. Backup bullet proof?

@MOD If there were some sort of universal back up for bullet proof and they were targeted with night kill, following laserguy's lynch, would the back up role immediately begin and therefore save them from the lynch?

The first 2 seem rather unlikely
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:40 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:@MOD If there were some sort of universal back up for bullet proof and they were targeted with night kill, following laserguy's lynch, would the back up role immediately begin and therefore save them from the lynch?

I assume you mean save them from the night-kill. A backup role that included inheriting bullet-proof would get the power immediately, so would be protected that night.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:47 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:Possible reasons that there was no kill:

1. Scum withheld kill
2. A second bullet proof player
3. Doctor save
4. Backup bullet proof?
5. Mafia submitted kill on LaserGuy and were too late to change it?
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby heuristically_alone » Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:51 pm UTC

True, but I think it was pretty obvious that laserguy was a likely lynch candidate, so I think mafia would have planned accordingly.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:54 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:5. Mafia submitted kill on LaserGuy and were too late to change it?

Since this is a newbie friendly game, I would have randomly assigned the kill for them in this case.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:58 pm UTC

Ah, OK.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Peaceful Whale » Fri Aug 18, 2017 7:14 pm UTC

Hmm, I think we need one of Sabar's insane, guaranteed win plans. Any ideas? So... no one died? THAT'S GREAT!!!
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Sabrar » Fri Aug 18, 2017 7:24 pm UTC

- Backup bulletproof is unlikely as they probably would have inherited Cop.
- Second bulletproof also unlikely.
- Scum withholding is not going to happen.
- Town could have Jailer instead of Doctor (theoretically Roleblocker is also possible but unlikely).
- There could have been a second Recruit (I doubt it).

In my opinion if we have a Doctor then it is almost sure that his/her protection was the reason for the NK, so they should probably claim.
I just don't see how the game is balanced with 3 scum. We could have multiple protection roles even after bulletproof.

@Peaceful Whale: guaranteed plans only work if all abilities are known or there are reasonable assumptions regarding them. This is a closed setup.

Unless we have some other investigative role, No Lynch is probably not going to help, though with some luck it might reduce the possible lynch-candidates.


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