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plytho
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:11 am UTC

BoomFrog: Gut read before going into this: BoomFrog was early on moody (+ townie points) but he’s said some strange things and others seem to be suspicious of him(- townie points).

Thoughts and questions in spoiler:
Spoiler:
These two posts kind of demonstrate what I find suspicious about the SirG lynch plan, particularly the latter.
The first of the two posts is rather innocuous. Yes, ideally the scum read would hammer. The second post directly contradicts the mods statement about GLaDOS.

@ BoomFrog:Why didn’t you believe that threat? It’s mod confirmed and there were no counter claims.
A big point in BoomFrog’s favor is his push on moody. He was the second vote on moody and he was actively trying to convince people to join that wagon. [NinEdit: there seems to be some discussion between Zen and EGW concerning how big a role BoomFrog played in the moody lynch. He voted early and made a case against moody. This does not at all feel like a bus.]
(Looking back at this I see jimbob was the third vote on moody, way before he was the counter wagon. So some points for jimbob there.)

I’d forgotten about this BoomFrog post. I think that may have been the basis for my suspicion on Zen later on. I was in complete agreement with BoomFrog about that so Zen’s move away from the three top candidates felt scummy. BoomFrog’s response to EGW here is clearly also in that mindset.

General thought on this (favorable to Zen, I guess): we’re not used to the majority lynch here at xkcd so it makes sense for BoomFrog and me to be anxious about getting there and fearing the no lynch. I remember YOLO saying that even with majority lynch DGamers always get a lynch through. So DGamers may feel more comfortable with a late switch than we do.

This statement feels weird:
BoomFrog wrote:Most likely universe, Moody and Jim are buddies but second most likely Moody is scum and Jim is town so I'd rather lynch Moody first.
[url=This statement feels weird.]Link[/url] to post. Link to me pointing
out my issues with it. @BoomFrog: please explain how moody and jimbob looked like likely buddies. Is this still your opinion?

I like his stance on Madge, it’s the same as mine.

@BoomFrog: I believe you still owe us a name of your secret scum read. When are you planning to share?

Yeah, I'm leaning town on BoomFrog for his vote on moody and his mobilisation for votes at the end of D1. I do need some answers to my concerns.
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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:12 am UTC

Fair enough, Sabrar.

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plytho
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D1 Begins! | 9/13

Postby plytho » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:22 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:@EGW: I agree Zen needs to put out his reads. But why are you not willing to be third on the Sir G vote? And why vote for Moody when you have more negative things to say about Red?


I still don't like this quote. I want others thoughts on this quote.

Zen asked you to vote SirG, you said "Nope", BoomFrog is asking why. Nothing wrong with that.
The second question is a valid response to this post of yours. Your post reads like: "Here's what I don't like about Red Ryu -> vote: moody".
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:28 am UTC

I had three scum reads (Boom frog, Moody, Jim) all which I voted. I didn't feel I needed to re-state my read on Moody. Ryu was a new read at that time. I did not consider that to be what he meant, though. It makes sense now, and I'll drop the point about that quote.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:47 am UTC

plytho wrote:[NinEdit: there seems to be some discussion between Zen and EGW concerning how big a role BoomFrog played in the moody lynch. He voted early and made a case against moody. This does not at all feel like a bus.]


This is simplifying the matter. He voted without a case and took a long while before answering to Zen about his meta 'scum tell' on him. Others (like myself and Sabrar) voted him first, and there was plenty of support [Heuaristically_Alone, Sabrar, Maven] for Moody in thread before he got around to it. He didn't interact with Moody nor question him. (iicr) I'm not feeling the '70% confidence' statement from him either. I don't know what your idea of bus is [Please tell me], but here is what it seems like to me. Boom's response feels like a lazy push that puts Moody at a hands distance, and finally gets around to committing [while withholding his case for a while] closer to deadline. I appreciate you going into the read though.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:48 am UTC

Was Boomfrog's case convincing to you? If so, what part of it? Did it actually convince anyone else to join?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:49 am UTC

I must go to sleep, I just realized it's almost 6:00AM. Good night thread.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Madge » Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:19 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Madge, even if you aren't able to get a good feel for everyone, please try taking a look at a small number of players at least.


My reads are coming in through osmosis. Don't like Zyth and EGQ, like Sabrar. I fear that it's because I know Sabrar and don't know the other two so I am worried my reads are biased so I don't want to trust them too much.

I feel like I need to go over D1 and see how moody's lynch went down. I think I could get a lot from it. However, it is SO LONG. I'm a bit scared.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Sabrar » Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:29 am UTC

Regarding Madge
Spoiler:
There are players who take Mafia seriously, constantly thinking about it even at work, having a compulsive need to check the thread every 5 minutes to see if there's new content. Then there are those who are just looking for a nice game to play, who enjoy the lying/deception/drama around it but otherwise don't take it too seriously. A subset of this second group does not even care about getting better at the game and does not change their play-style. Guess what group Madge belongs to.

Madge (by her own admission) is bad at reading people. She likes to have actual claims and night-results to compare and analyze. She has nothing like that on D1 therefore she active lurks, not knowing where to start. She occasionally would sign up only as a replacement, not because she doesn't have the time to play but because she hopes that any replacement would be after D1 therefore she can avoid the part of the game she doesn't like.

Madge normally does not vote D1, when she does it's out of self-preservation or in one case because she wanted the indie to come totally clean.

This is Madge not knowing what to do as SK. She makes her claim on D3 only, offering no help to Town before that, especially mentioning not sharing info. By the way she misread her role in that game as well.

The only way Madge knows how to help Town D1 is to share some aspect of her role that she thinks might be relevant.
Here is Madge talking about her power in WoT2 (replaced moody at the start of D2).
This is from another game, very little info but better than nothing, explained later (also Town).
This is her opening as neutral indie.
Town again.

Contrast Secret Santa where she is scum and therefore doesn't mention her role at all.

That takes care of D1. The rest will have to wait.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Madge » Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:04 am UTC

That was a really interesting read sabrar, thank you! I feel like you got me quite well.

[self-conscious] There's.... there's nothing wrong with playing the way I do, right? I don't ruin the fun for everyone else with my antics?
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:54 am UTC

Madge wrote:That was a really interesting read sabrar, thank you! I feel like you got me quite well.

[self-conscious] There's.... there's nothing wrong with playing the way I do, right? I don't ruin the fun for everyone else with my antics?
No Madge, there isn't. Everybody plays differently, and we should all accept that. The fun for some is trying to distinguish scum play in those we don't know so well, or who play differently to them.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Madge » Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:50 pm UTC

Also got some answers back from the mod. It looks like if I'm the final judgement voter I will count as "hammering" for tree stump purposes. I was thinking of putting myself as the final judgement voter in case GLaDOS would explode on the final judgement voter.

I am concerned that if the final vote in any lynch sequence is considered a hammer for my ability, it will be considered as such for GLaDOS, in which case this judgement vote thing is a VERY BAD IDEA and someone is ALREADY DOOMED. This being the case, should I take one for the team? (Because given how much I suck at mafia maybe it's the most useful way for me to contribute since the vig is dead?)

(I did not get clarity on whether final judgement vote for GLaDOS would explode her or not, so I don't think there's any way to be sure)
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:17 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Red Ryu, don’t be so quick to brush off LaserGuy’s content. If he wrote it before he got his role pm, it’s useful because it’s written from the point of view of not-mafia.


I don't think you understand my concern.

My problem with this, and I really dislike it when players do this, is that it tells me nothing about there alignment. They wrote that content without any sort of consideration of what alignment they rolled. They could be town, mafia, or indy and that content would be the same for all we know.

Interesting perspectives and content? Sure but it tells me jack about his alignment unless I think he edited what he posted with consideration to what he rolled but I've never seen a player do this.

This is why I prefer players do not write content until they get their role pm because I'm left with a, yeah you can assume you will be town before you come in I guess, but that doesn't mean you did.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby mpolo » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:24 pm UTC

Nice that Madge got some clarity on what happens here. We know that Madge would be useless to us, but not actively hindering, if she "hammers". GLaDOS might take the hammerer, but it might take LaserGuy as well, for using his power. Which would mean essentially losing two (presumptive) townies to get rid of one indie. Which doesn't seem like much of a bargain.

If we need a (possibly) sacrificial townie to hammer, I can do so.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Sabrar » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:32 pm UTC

If we're afraid that the 'hammerer' gets also killed then LaserGuy could unvote and re-vote (with no-one voting after him). That way GLaDOS can't take 2 players with him (presumably).

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:35 pm UTC

Alright, let's try this.

Quick Page 25-27

@Ranmaru, are you giving Zen too much credit on meta or do you think it matches up?

I think this is also 5 judgement based on FF's post. Also I think I am of FF right now.

Amrock needs to die for his post on this page, also because all indies must die idk why people keep thinking you can easily team up with them. Oh also another alt win con? Yeah no Amrock needs to die.

Did Amrock just get hammered from that judgement? Maybe I miscounted.

@Whale...just don't reveal you got that kind of info please.....be my town bro and lets work together.

Also Mpolo swapped people as a bus driver like role it seems? Alright good to know.

Gamma Emerald wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
Gamma Emerald wrote:Yes my content will be improved. I've read the stuff I missed, I started an external readlist for the game to void having to keep it in my head between times I am here, and I expect to be more active. As for me voting jimbob I was less sure on moody at a certain point, and by the time I decided to just hammer instead of sitting on Madge it was already done.


What is your current read on jimbob?

Gamma Emerald wrote:Also HOLY SHIT that's a lot of content. I HIGHLY doubt that was made after you received your role so no volume clearing for you. Anyway, I'm fairly certain I know what my night phase reading time is going towards.


I already stated as much for last post (the one with all the spoilers). The reads I wrote during the night phase.

My read on jimbob is a scumread, though for different reasons than before. I feel the wagon shift off of him near EoD was fairly gross. Also thanks for the clarification, that will help me read you, but could I get a cut-down readlist with all the questions to different people, and maybe have your reads spoilered in town, null, and scum sections?


Could you go into a little bit of detail on this. What in particular made the shift look scummy to you? I don't recall that part being as shifty as how some people interacted with Moody.

Pretty ok with Sabrar so far in content leaning town off the interactions and questions. Would like to keep him around.

Zen claimed weak comparision cop, welp. Alrighty so Zen asks someone else for who he targets and then he gets the results of those two names. Does this mean Zen knows the names or he doesn't? Needs clarification will check if it was.

Some talk about Bessie liking to tunnel here on page 26, i dunno about this meta but noting this.

@Evil George Washington/Ranmaru where are you at outside of boomfrog for scum?

BoomFrog wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote: Key Points:

1. States scumread on Sabrar without further interaction, questions, or vote.
2. Weak justification for why he had a contridiction of reads via: scum!FF jumping on scum!Whale
3. Attempts to justify forced read of Mpolo indy read, given too early in the game.
4. No initial impression on Moody, is tasked to re-read for quite some time near early game.

I haven't read anything D2 yet except this first big post from EGW. I'm pretty busy irl for the next two days but I feel like I better respond to this early to allow more time for discussion.

1) You seem to have misunderstood why I found Sabrar scummy. I disagreed when he said "now that's scummy". But I didn't vote for Sabrar because I wanted to keep my vote and pressure on PW. By the time I had RL time to post again Sabrar had revealed his extra info which justified his vote so my opinion went back to pretty much neutral on him.
2) There's no contradiction. FF could be scum on a different team than PW, they could be the same team and FF overreacted to distance, or I could be wrong (at that time) and PW is town and FF scum. Finding someone scummy doesn't mean everyone who attacks them is town. Suggesting otherwise is ridiculous.
3) I stick by my assessment of mpolo.
4) At that time I didn't have a read on half the players in the game.
5) You didn't say this, but I dragged my heels at the end of D1 to change over from Red to Moody. I was concerned that you (EGW) were leading me to lynch a bad looking townie and saved your scum buddy Red. Then Moody had his terrible updated read list and offered to basically vote anyone besides himself and showed a complete lack of scumhunting. Actually, you trying to switch from moody to Spak or Red made me feel better about staying on moody.

Your whole post feels like you had a conclusion first then found the evidence second. What was it that made you pick me out of everyone else?


Let's chat about this stuff.

1) Need to refresh on this, why was PW more of a focal point and scummy at the time and seemed for you to be more of a priority? If you had questions to Sabrar wouldn't pressure there with questions be better?
2) right but the issue here is the fact you seem to be calling people scummy but then placing your vote somewhere else. In this situation, what in particular would make whale more of a priority if you think FF was worth looking into?
3) no issues here.
4) none here.
5) Right but this is where one of my main problems with your slot is overall.

Here is my problem with your slot and why I am scum reading you right now. Why is your focus where it is? What in particular makes you think that Whale was worth more and if so, did you question him or just leave your votes on him? I don't expect you to tunnel him but I don't get your sense of focus with your voting habits in conjunction with your reads.

If you can explain this to me please do, but otherwise I am very much on board with offing you.

Madge wrote:Whoever asked me how I can prove I become a tree stump if I kill anyone: let me hammer, turn me into a tree stump, and then when I try to vote my vote won't get counted. It's an irreversible way to test part of my claim, admittedly, but it'll beat y'all mislynching me. (Also, I guess it means I can hammer GLaDOS at the same time if you want me to prove it, since I would be the least valuable townie in that situation since I won't have any pro-town powers in future). Ditto for the judgement vote: I'll be willing to be a backup hammer voter. (I don't think the judgement vote will necessarily activate my tree stump power though, because it's not a hammer vote, it's a majority vote: so by just being part of a majority I'm not causing a death directly the same way I might be if I laid the vote that kills someone and ends the day)

I have a test in a couple of hours so this is a short one (who am I kidding, they're always going to be short). I was hoping D2 wouldn't be as hectic as D1 but it clearly is going to be. (THREE PAGES? SERIOUSLY?)

Didn't think indies are dangerous because in general on this forum they tend to be pro-town. SKs I don't count in the "indie" category in the same way as survivors and all the other different things as they SK's like, Mafia Jr. Even Jesters, who are bad for town, get their win and stop bothing the rest of the players. (I think in one game we negotiated with the jester, lynched them in exchange for them using their powers).

I take back all my stuff about indies not being dangerous: that apparently doesn't apply to this game's mod.

I'm interested to see what Zyth is hiding. I'm glad we're finally begining to get morsels of information about night actions and roles. Time to have something other than walls of text to examine!


I do not think you understand how order of actions work.

You hammer and your hammer is first, you cannot treestump in the middle of it unless the mod lets you. If you stump and try to hammer then you lose your vote and can't hammer.

At least that is how as a mod I would go about it, whichever actions goes first is the one to resolve and then I check the next actions to see what would be next.

I do appreciate the idea but I do not think it would work like this. If you can stump, sure but be aware of where and when you will.

I ditto laser's question to Zen on why he targeted Sabrar.

@Ranmaru are you sure these are super confident assumptions though? Not saying you are wrong here on frog but I'm not seeing the super confident angle.

I get how Zen's role works now from what he said later, will note this.

Bessie post is weird and I don't get why those scum picks are what they are.\

Sabrar wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:I have no idea what you're talking about regarding the ability I've claimed though? That's all there is to it. If you received anything other than the hidden message ability, it was from someone else.
The wording of the pm did not suggest that anything mechanical would be attached to the 2 names I chose, instead it just asked me to pick my top 2 scum-reads (paraphrased).


Wait it asked for scum reads?

Hmmm? Oddly specific wording.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:As Sabrar said, defending yourself always comes off as WIFOM. It makes it seem like the posts that a person is using to defend themselves were said purposefully, to be used for the very act of defending themselves. Nevertheless I will try, because 1) I am a very cooperative player. I really would prefer for my town reads to also town read me so that we can work together. It really gets under my skin when my town reads, scum read me. plytho and laser are two people high on my town list right now and I'd like to try and rectify their misguidance so that we can hunt actual scum. 2) No one is doing it for me! plyth, Laser, and Sabrar are completely overlooking the parts of my play that contradicts their speculation (confirmation bias). You guys are coming at me with a theory already in mind and then viewing my posts with that perspective. Again, this is keeping you from seeing the points that contradict your theory, which otherwise might be noticeable from an unbiased perspective.

Before I go into why I'm not likely scum mates with moody (using the term likely here because I'm going at it from a not-me perspective), let me say something regarding my voting style and wagon style compared to the general play here on xkcd. I said before that the differences between dgames and xkcd are fewer than the similarities. Nevertheless, they still exist, and our voting pattern is indeed one of them (as Sabrar mentioned). Wagons in dgames are good. Voting is good. Not all of us use our votes in the same way, but the majority of us use it as a scum hunting tool, not simply as the mechanic to lynch someone. Pressure (through votes) is good and often gets good Intel on the player being pressured and those joining in on the wagon. Wagon building is good, especially when they are between two alternatives. If one is of alignment_a (presumably town, but could also be indy or another faction) and of alignment_b (presumably mafia), this puts mafia in a position where they have to choose to either bus or risk defending their mate. As boom put it, it's a gold mine for reads.

Because I use my vote as scum hunting tool, it tends to be erratic. As town though, I do my best to land it on scum at the end of the day, which is what matters.

It is also the reason why I built up the Jim wagon near the end of the day. I wanted competing wagons, particularly one that would be difficult to build. You don't get as much from easy wagons, because scum can easily justify joining one or the other. Ryu and Gamma were both really easy alternatives to moody.



Anyway, why I'm not mates with moody:


X. I don't bus. This point isn't one that you guys would have gotten by reading the game as it's meta. But it is legit the ONLY thing about my meta that is absolutely true and consistent. (I totally lied yesterday about how I wouldn't defend my bud. I totally would. I just said that to see if Sabrar would switch to Jim. Sorry Sabrar I know you have a LAL type of policy ¯\_(ツ)_/¯). THIS META HOWEVER IS 100% LEGIT && I HAVE THE EVIDENCE. I have mentioned this multiple times elsewhere. And I'm slightly annoyed that George hasn't mentioned this, because I have spilled this philosophy to him on multiple occasions. I absolutely will never bus my mate. I hate bussing with a passion. It has so little strategic value. Most town players are super paranoid of bussing so the return on investment is almost always negative, because town will speculate that you bussed anyway. All you do by bussing is progress town's wincon. Your team has to play through more day phases and town thus has more time to smoke you out. You lose the abilities of your mate. You lose the voting power of your mate. You lose the voice of your mate. So many cons!

I always hard town read my mates as scum. I never bring attention toward the things they say, because scummates often see scummy behavior in their mates that town otherwise would not see. So fake scum hunting your mates is horrible, because you're likely to bring up legit points that town would have never seen. I could go on and on about this, but here are previous posts of mine that lay this meta bare:


¶ Ž said: ↑
Well don't bus [each other] either. If any if my partners die, I completely lose motivation to play. If you push each other, it has to be on things that aren't actually really that scummy, otherwise you just end up bringing attention to one another that town wouldn't have noticed in the first place.

Post

Xivii: "Xast you're being way too paranoid of me >_>. I am known for making gambits as town. I hate bussing and would never do it unless it would put scum at a mechanical advantage. If you look at any of my scum games you will see that I always keep my mates as town. Throwing your mate under the bus is foolish as it hardly ever pays off."

Post

Xivii: "No. I never bus my scummates. See: Fire Emblem."
Post

Dabuz: "Ranmaru pretty much has me, feel free to bus lol."
Xivii: "No way bro. We in this 'til the end. Ran is suspicious now, but it's not permanent. Xastrn is going to be the one killed today. Then the night is in our court and we can easily take out Ran (or kanty cause his towniness is annoying lol).
Post




Reasons I'm likely not scum mates with moody (based on in-game non-meta posts):

1. I am the one that initally brought attention to moody.
#HBC | Zyth wrote:I'm reading isos right now and will make a read post later once I get some questions answered. In the mean time, can you figure out moody's alignment for me? I'm having difficulty.


People began to give their input on moody in response to this post, and I think this is where players started to actually consider the read. There's lit. no point of scum!Zen making this post. All it would be doing is bringing unnecessary attention to his mate when there wasn't even any to begin with.

I am also the first one to have made a point of suspicion against him.
#HBC | Zyth wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:
bessie wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:Scum can't be misguided because they'd know you aren't scum. Pretty straight forward.
Why? We could have two scum teams.
Fair enough.
@DGamers: how often do you have 2 scum-teams? Is it reasonable for Zen to forget this?
I didn't "forget", it's just not convention from my experience. I wasn't aware that it was such a common thing here, but seeing that multiple players from this site have stated the likelihood of there being two teams, I see it as reasonable for h_a to think so. I actually suspected that there were probably more than one team, but not because it's a large game, rather because of my previous experience in an OS game. h_a's hard stance on there being to teams is actually why he initially caught my attention. Seemed a bit too insightful. Now that I know that it's a common thing here, I can disregard that line of suspicion. Honestly now it seems more weird to me those from this site that didn't consider two teams in their setup prediction (i.e moody).




2. jimbob / Dark Horse would have been a really ridiculous counter wagons to a moody wagon. Ryu and Gamma were both really easy pushes. Especially gamma. The only way there is scum!Zen here is if Ryu and Gamma are also on the same team. My jimbob case was super weak and Frozen was the only other person looking at jim as a possible candidate at that time. Why the hell would scum!Zen choose jim, JIM as the wagon to save his scummate moody? Seriously, plytho / sabrar / laser you really need to answer this if your argument is going to hold any weight. It's really suspect that when Frozen brought this up, Sabrar simply brushed it off with a "maybe they're all scum meep moop".


3. I was always going to switch over to moody if jim didn't get the votes. And I was no way going to have the day end with a no lynch. I wanted counter wagons so that scum would have to choose between one or the other. When I felt the deadlock was reached, and we thus got all we could out of the competing wagons, I was going to switch over to moody and bring everyone on the jim wagon with me, and that is what I did. You can see this being conveyed through this progression of posts:

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:@Zyth: Moody is about 70% chance to be scum. This is as confident as I get D1.
I believe it.

I'd much rather lynch one of the other three I posted, but I have no reason to fight a Moody lynch. If it comes down to it, I'll support it over Gamma.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:George, we'll always be able to swing back to moody if need be.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Vote jim and at least help me put scum in a position where they are forced to choose.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Spak, choose a wagon.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:smh should've went for Spak.

Vote: moody

Let's mobilize.

(btw, here spak not voting on either of the top two wagons here was mad scummy. one of the things i was looking for)

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
FrozenFlame wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:smh should've went for Spak.

Vote: moody

Let's mobilize.

But...but... scumbob... :(

I tried, but it's not possible without either George or Boom, based on wagonomics.

I don't think I'll be able to make another post today. Moody is the play. Anyone not on that wagon needs to hop over immediately.

@ruy @spak @whale @mpolo


I think I clearly had town's interest at heart. Most of my "im so gud" crap is just silly bluster. I'm not actually that great at town. I do however think I have a genuine talent for wagonomics. I have a good instinct for when and which votes need to be moved for a wagon to form and a lynch to go through. If I didn't want moody to be lynched, he wouldn't have been lynched. If I didn't move my vote then and there, the day would have ended in a no lynch or a Gamma lynch. Which brings me to my final point.


4. Right before I switched to moody, plytho and Frozen were trying to get a last minute swing toward gamma. This is actually why I voted moody at that exact moment, cause Frozen made a post right before trying to make a play towards Gamma.

plytho wrote:
FrozenFlame wrote:So yeah I'll try to be as available as possible as deadline approaches. I'm stick with the Jim wagon but if people are that bent out of shape about it I think Gamma is a great alternative. This moody wagon gives me really bad vibes
If you're serious about the Gamma move you need to get that organized. This only works if you round up people willing to switch at a predetermined time, well before deadline. Everyone switches at the same time, if it's not enough, switch right back to something viable. Otherwise you might have people that switched but can't switch back because they're asleep.

FrozenFlame wrote:
plytho wrote:
FrozenFlame wrote:If you're serious about the Gamma move you need to get that organized. This only works if you round up people willing to switch at a predetermined time, well before deadline. Everyone switches at the same time, if it's not enough, switch right back to something viable. Otherwise you might have people that switched but can't switch back because they're asleep.

I'm seriously about being willing to move to Gamma if people prefer that lynch to Jimbob but obviously I'm not going to mobilize a shift off jimbob, who I would prefer to lynch, just to move to Gamma. I'm just saying that if Gamma becomes a wagon I'll be around to and will move to it if we end up deciding jimbob is definitively not a play.


Right after these is when I make my let's mobilize on moody post, because I was afraid of them swinging the lynch toward gamma. Looking back on it, I think this is the strongest evidence for town!Zen (or at least nonBudsWithmoodyZen). The only scenario that this is not the case is if Gamma is on the same team as Zen-moody.


Right...so lets discuss, I'm willing to level with you here on some level. But some of your actions on Moody do look like that meta you just listed if I am recalling this properly, you were pushing other directions until you settled on Moody yes? To the point where if I am recalling correctly you had a gut town read? Am I right on this?

If so, why did you feel that read at all?

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Ruy is Ruy.


RevaliAvatar.png


With Sabrar next post I do agree with some of the observations with Zen, but I would like to ask some questions regarding why he reached what he did.

~

Page 28-31 later.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:46 pm UTC

Bessie: I don’t really have a good gut read on bessie. I feel like I’m too influenced by the OMGUS I get from the PW claim discussion. That’s really bugging me so that’s the bit I’ll get into first before I do a proper read:

Bessie answered my question here but skipped a bigger post here that has some open questions. On second thought (after I've spent too much time on this post thinking about what bessie's problem is with my response to PW's claim) I'll leave the proper read for after my questions are answered. The OMGUS is too much right now and the answers to those questions could be revealing.

Further response to PW claim discussion:
@Peaceful Whale: please do not reveal any more about your ability, it’s not relevant to this discussion.
Spoiler:
bessie wrote:
plytho wrote:@bessie: thanks for finally answering this old question in your opening post today. Why didn't you answer right away? It would have saved us a lot of trouble. Do you still think I was trying to rolefish?
I did not want to discuss Peaceful Whale’s targets, because I was speculating that I might be one, and if he were to confirm it, it might make me a night kill candidate. I can’t comprehend how town!plytho failed to grasp any of this on D1, and why you kept pushing this after I pretty much told you to drop it. Yes, I still think you were trying to role fish.
I did not want to discuss PW’s targets either. (Btw, there was no need to speculate about his target, he outright mentioned you.) I haven’t asked a single question in that direction. I felt you were trying to sweep PW’s claim under the rug, which I think is a scummy thing to do. I said I thought there was something scummy and you replied with:
bessie wrote:Any guesses as to why I'm not happy with BoomFrog, and now you, for bringing this up?
I didn’t guess that it was because you didn’t want to discuss targets because targets weren’t on my mind at all. So I said
plytho wrote:I really don't understand, please explain?
Instead of saying: “I don’t want to discuss targets” you say:
bessie wrote:Are you frickin serious or are you trying to piss me off?
To which I naturally reply
plytho wrote:Bessie, I am frickin serious, sorry.
After that you finally mention targets:
bessie wrote:Well then you’re pissing me off. I saw it. Quit fishing for information on Peaceful Whale’s role mechanics and targets.
I was never fishing for role mechanics or targets. I was trying to find out what your problem was with me pointing out PW’s claim. Sorry I failed to grasp that this was your problem. It’s far from obvious to me. And I didn’t keep pushing it. I asked for clarification and instead of answering you got pissed off. I just didn’t understand the rolefishing accusation because I didn’t even see anything to fish for.

bessie wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:@bessie, regarding being irritated with plytho and Boom for the supposed fishing.

Your explanation doesn't make sense to me, because Whale had flat out claimed that he could do something at that point. I get your irritation with Boom. He was directly trying to pull information out of Whale. plytho, however, was making an observation about you. It had nothing to do with PW's claim directly. It had to do with the discrepancy in your play. If you suspected that plytho was trying to somehow indirectly provoke PW, you could've simply addressed plytho's concerns while at the same time telling PW not to say anything more.
Yes, my problem with plytho is that I felt he was looking at me as the possible recipient of a result or inventor gift or something, and thus a possible (and better) night kill target. Read my above response to plytho regarding this and ask me if you want any further explanation.
I bolded a part of Zyth’s comment that you didn’t address. (And that was the main reason I kept ‘pushing’ you.)


Here’s why I initially made that comment about you almost looking scummy:
Spoiler:
My impression was that you were trying to sweep his claim under the rug. That’s what I was getting at. So to clear up a discussion between You and Zen. I wasn’t joking about you being displeased with claims. I was serious about you looking like you were trying to hide PW’s claim.
I thought PW made himself a possible NK target with that claim. So I wanted to make sure everyone (specifically people with protective powers) saw that claim. I also felt like PW had pretty much claimed his power so when you posted
bessie wrote: I recommend that for now, you do not claim or discuss your power.
in her reads list I thought you were trying to downplay the claim. Why downplay the claim? So scum can take out PW without interference from protectors.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:50 pm UTC

Oh yeah

Vote: BoomFrog

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Peaceful Whale » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:57 pm UTC

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:@Whale...just don't reveal you got that kind of info please.....be my town bro and lets work together.

???

Does he mean if I know he’s scum to not ell people about it? I’m just confused.
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:03 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
plytho wrote:[NinEdit: there seems to be some discussion between Zen and EGW concerning how big a role BoomFrog played in the moody lynch. He voted early and made a case against moody. This does not at all feel like a bus.]


This is simplifying the matter. He voted without a case and took a long while before answering to Zen about his meta 'scum tell' on him. Others (like myself and Sabrar) voted him first, and there was plenty of support [Heuaristically_Alone, Sabrar, Maven] for Moody in thread before he got around to it. He didn't interact with Moody nor question him. (iicr) I'm not feeling the '70% confidence' statement from him either. I don't know what your idea of bus is [Please tell me], but here is what it seems like to me. Boom's response feels like a lazy push that puts Moody at a hands distance, and finally gets around to committing [while withholding his case for a while] closer to deadline. I appreciate you going into the read though.
I guess technically a bus is simply lynching a buddy. This is something that is usually avoided until it becomes very hard to do anything else. In this case I feel scum!BoomFrog wouldn't put a vote on viable scumbuddy moody. He wasn't super early and he wasn't overly committed to convincing others to join the wagon but he was still early and voting for scum. Yeah, it feels like a lazy push, but why lazily push a scumbuddy rather than a townie? There were other options to lazily push, Gamma and Red Ryu specifically.
Evil George Washington wrote:Was Boomfrog's case convincing to you? If so, what part of it? Did it actually convince anyone else to join?

Not particularly. The part where he says jimbob and moody are likely buddies is particularly strange (and I'm waiting for an explanation). I don't think it did.
His vote did though. The fact that BoomFrog (among others) was voting moody made him a viable lynch (as opposed to say, Gamma or Red Ryu).
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:46 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:@Whale...just don't reveal you got that kind of info please.....be my town bro and lets work together.

???

Does he mean if I know he’s scum to not ell people about it? I’m just confused.


Don't claim early like that unless you have a valid reason, like confirmed scum.

Confirmed town you can crumb or leave it since that can be more useful later.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:05 pm UTC

Going to work, won't be able to respond to long posts (Ryu) until after.

Unvote; Vote: Boomfrog

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:27 pm UTC

Wait a minute, Ranmaru, where you protected last night? How do you know this?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:30 pm UTC

I protected myself. Anything would not be able to effect me.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby mpolo » Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:36 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:@Whale...just don't reveal you got that kind of info please.....be my town bro and lets work together.

???

Does he mean if I know he’s scum to not ell people about it? I’m just confused.


Normally, if you hypothetically had a town result about a person, you would just sit there quietly unless there were a strong movement to start a lynch against said town person. If such a thing happened, you could consider revealing your result to save that person, particularly if you think there is a good scum target for the lynch.

If you hypothetically had a scum result about a person, you have two principal choices: (1) knowing that the person is scum, you reread their posts and make a brilliant case "proving" the fact and never mentioning your result at all OR (2) you reveal what you know in thread, hoping that town will believe you really have that information and will act upon it.

The sad truth of the matter is that as soon as you make clear that you have an investigative sort of power, you become a target for the scumkill the following night. Sometimes it gets you lynched because people say "one of the two must be scum: let's lynch them both". You might get lucky and attract a doctor to protect you as well. If this happens, people start playing "follow the cop".
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:42 pm UTC

@Spak: Why didn't you vote D1?

Spak wrote:Sweet, we got one! I'm glad that the Moody push ended up going well.


I twitch a little bit at this because a player who is much better than I am (dimochka) has noted being "happy" about a successful lynch as a common scumtell.

Madge wrote:Also got some answers back from the mod. It looks like if I'm the final judgement voter I will count as "hammering" for tree stump purposes. I was thinking of putting myself as the final judgement voter in case GLaDOS would explode on the final judgement voter.

I am concerned that if the final vote in any lynch sequence is considered a hammer for my ability, it will be considered as such for GLaDOS, in which case this judgement vote thing is a VERY BAD IDEA and someone is ALREADY DOOMED. This being the case, should I take one for the team? (Because given how much I suck at mafia maybe it's the most useful way for me to contribute since the vig is dead?)

(I did not get clarity on whether final judgement vote for GLaDOS would explode her or not, so I don't think there's any way to be sure)


I had already suggested that I would the most logical candidate. If you're willing to volunteer, I won't say no though. YOLO has been similarly unhelpful to me about my queries as to how Judgment interacts with GlaDOS.

@Zyth: I'll try to have a big post going through your D2 content before you get back. That said, I am conflicted about how I feel about you, because even though I can find many things to fault in your play, my gut reaction is that I'm mistaken and you're Town. Hmm...

Regardless, I don't think you're the right person to lynch today anymore, so I'll go with this for now and rethink things for a bit.

Unvote

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Sabrar » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:05 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I twitch a little bit at this because a player who is much better than I am (dimochka) has noted being "happy" about a successful lynch as a common scumtell.
Disagree (patzer was Town). It's null-tell as far as I'm concerned.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:14 pm UTC

Just about to continue with my reads, but I just wanted to chip in on the Judgement/hammer/Glados discussion: if Madge did indeed get the response about her being tree-stumped by the final Judgement vote, then consistency says that the last person to Judgement vote Amrock will be treated as the hammerer for all purposes. Assuming that lynching Glados does indeed kill the hammerer, I would expect that whoever last voted Amrock gets killed in this case as well.

This then means, who should be the last person to vote, and should we even do it? Those voting could all unvote (possible exception being LaserGuy, assuming that Amrock might vote for LaserGuy), and we continue as we were without Amrock dying. We could try doing what we were considering and "force" the scummiest player to judgement vote Amrock instead, although the same issues (and benefits) apply to this as with the regular lynch discussed by various players previously. Assuming that we are willing to sacrifice a townie, I think we can't risk Madge trying to be the hammerer - in the worst case, LaserGuy dies due to the bomb, as it is his power in effect, but this will also leave Madge as a tree stump as well, so we effectively lose two townies for killing one indie, who may not actually be a threat when all is said and done (assuming of course that both LaserGuy and Madge are both town, which is what my instincts are saying currently). If somebody else other than LaserGuy hammers, there's also a very small chance that both LaserGuy and the hammerer die, which isn't great either. Conclusion - assuming we are still set on Judgement lynching Amrock, LaserGuy is the safest hammerer (unless we are pretty confident we can get scum to hammer), probably with Madge as a backup, just in case LaserGuy backs out at the last moment (seems unlikely, but possible).

Ninja'ed by Sabrar - I agree with him. Pretty sure I've done it, or at least have felt like doing it as town until I remembered that people view it as scummy.

Okay, reads time.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby mpolo » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:32 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Just about to continue with my reads, but I just wanted to chip in on the Judgement/hammer/Glados discussion: if Madge did indeed get the response about her being tree-stumped by the final Judgement vote, then consistency says that the last person to Judgement vote Amrock will be treated as the hammerer for all purposes. Assuming that lynching Glados does indeed kill the hammerer, I would expect that whoever last voted Amrock gets killed in this case as well.


From Madge's reveal, we know that the last vote is "like" a hammer for her ability. But some have suggested that LaserGuy may be targeted in any case, regardless of the hammerer, because it's his ability that kills Amrock. Technically, I don't think we even know if it is the hammerer in general that activates GLaDOS, but that seems the most logical thing.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:43 pm UTC

Page 28-31

I agree with Bessie on people not getting the computer and work limitations that can make it difficult to consistently post with walls and so many posts. Plus like 16 players, I'm willing to give some slack on this. (not for any personally biased reasons or anything)

@Bessie, part of the issues with Whale it is the fact he kind of put his name out there and hinted as his tracker role. I get where laser is coming from but I agree with you it's not needed and Whale should have never posted that info in the first place.

I agree Madge is not being particularly helpful for the posts from what I did read for today outside of some ideas on how to use the treestump role to hammer, which I kind of like because it shows foresight even if I think the idea will not work.

Noted Zen's reasoning for town Boomfrog.

I do like Laser's point on page 28 about Zyth on strongest scum player, it's obviously me because I'm totally not terrible at mafia, but I am curious for the basis of that kind of point as well.

LaserGuy wrote:
mpolo wrote:I fear that I am responsible for the Judgment falling onto Amrock, however. At the point when I sent in my action, Zyth was one of my town reads. Hoping he'd get killed, I swapped him with LaserGuy/Amrock.

Judgment Vote: Amrock


Wait, how does this timeline work? When did you submit your action? Why did you think Zyth would be the target of a killing action at that point in time? Is Zyth still a townread?

Gamma Emerald wrote:Holy shit mpolo just shot up in my townreads, this was my exact working theory for why Amrock was gladiated.


Why would you come to this conclusion? At the end of D1, lots of people were feeling that Zyth was looking scummy. He wasn't a prime target for scum to kill.


I only had a problem with his read on me, because why couldn't we be town bros day 1 zen!, but nothing much to make me double take. the main catalyst is the Moody flip. After that I am a but more concerned about Zen.

plytho for town of his posts before and not on page 28.

Gonna mark down Mpolo's read list here. Will get back to this since some scum reads I don't understand.

Whale is obvious newbie town at this point.

@Laserguy nooo work with me! We can be townie pals and get scum together! :< I'm a bit curious why he doesn't have the same issues Ran and I do with Boom but will again read more detail on readlists later.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:These players aren't doing anything. Perhaps the active posters slow down posting so that they can get caught up.


Dear god this!

all of this!

Page 29:

Point from Mpolo, Spak needs more content.

Dear lord, we need to end Amrock via judgement, no questions asked.

Jim's read list seems fine and mostly in line with my own thoughts, will also note this and get back to it.

Spak post!

Noting his readlist here will again be back to this later.

Zen's long post, noting defense since I want to analyze it later.

Znirk needs to post like now, will be in my vote pool as a result.

Kind of just skimming recent posts after this, really want to focus on key points just to catch up and not some minor questions. If it ends up something to read back on later I will.

bessie wrote:
Madge wrote:@bessie: I think my claim plus my meta is keeping me alive atm. I'm not enjoying the pace of this game (SO MUCH TO READ), so it's hard to stay motivated with all the walls of text happening.
Yes, but I’m wondering why LaserGuy thinks your claim is not helping keep you alive, because to be quite honest, your content has not been super duper ultra townie spectacular so far this game. He does have a meta townie read of you here, despite you feeling kind of scummy to him.


Refresh me on this, has it? I might be forgetful on this given going back and forth at work on this.

Tell for me was speculation on how to use the treestump stuff today.

Evil George Washington wrote:I don't see why we should help Madge when she won't even consider to help town.


Would consider her speculation to dodge dying and hammering from earlier to be this?

Maybe I am giving too much credit for this here? hmm will think on this.

Madge wrote:vote: evil george washington

there you go, I'm voting! :D

...too much?

but seriously... like, why are you so obsessed with me? I mean I'm obsessed with me because I'm so amazing, but you can't possibly know that already.

For the record: I will happily become a tree stump if the alternative is NL. This will not change.


I hate this vote, in turn what other thoughts do you have on the players at large rather than just Evil George Washington?

mpolo wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:
mpolo wrote:Really annoyed with a "not doing anything" when I put several hours into reading this thread today and produced a long post. (Just spent another hour reading the end of the day.) If it is absolutely required to get a post in every 2-3 hours you can just lynch me, because I do have a life outside the forum.
I'm so sorry. I'm the one that needs to read. I misread your post asking me about my claim. I thought you were asking me about n0. Yes, I used it n1 as well: on George.

I don't think I'm being too defensive. Two of the first few posts as soon as the day started were giant walls against me. Could you go through and tell me which points you think are valid against me and which points you think I've nullified or cleared up? I find it troublesome that I'm one of your scum reads when I was your strongest town read going into the night. What about my play did you not like at the end of the day? You have jim in your scum reads so I'm really confused here. It looks to me like you are just trying to line up with consensus despite not actually reading me as scum.


Towards the end of the day you got extremely fixed on lynching lurkers, even to the point of saying that lynching any lurker (logically including a townie) is objectively better than lynching scum. This rubs me very much the wrong way. Then there's some flailing for lynch targets. I understand to some extent, because the day was nearing end and consensus was hard to get. Sorry, the hospital claimed "Many of our rooms have free Internet", but mine had nothing -- no WiFi in sight, no Ethernet ports. Otherwise, I could have been of more help then. The consensus did have a major effect on my feelings on you, obviously -- I already said that I hadn't read the last couple of pages of D1 until my last post, so I was definitely colored by other people's analyses. When people I am tending to trust post, I do allow their analysis to color my thinking. Of course a Sabrar-EGW scum team could have made lots of plans during the long night to frame someone.

Posting this before reading the posts under this so as not to miss it. More in a moment, probably. Double Ninja not read yet.


What exactly makes a lurker more likely townie?

I've lynched lurkers before and they have flipped scum.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:I have a theory on Spak and Ruy, so I'm holding off on them for now, but if the crowd went that way, I'd definitely join in.


l_sipping_tea_by_papoujunkie.jpg


And oh look I am caught up.

Reads:
100 confirmed furry ruy townie: Red Ryu
Town: Evil George Washington, plytho, Frozenflame, Peaceful Whale, Laserguy
Townlean: Sabrar
null: Bessie, jimbobmacdoodle, mpolo, Spak(needs to be more active or would be townlead)
scum lean: Madge(reread content not a fan), #HBC | Zyth,
scum: Gamma Emerald(inactive and dislike content that was posted end of d1 and d2), BoomFrog, Znirk(inactive can die), heuristically_alone(inactive can die),
Gonna die to judgement: Amrock

Grabbed names I can recall from the front page don't think I left anything out.

I'll go from here.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:04 pm UTC

First up are going to be BoomFrog and FrozenFlame. Up to now, I have had no instinctive feel for them, and have yet to read through their individual posts since very early in the game.

BoomFrog: I have no particular problem with the early pressure vote on Peaceful Whale, nor his use of the "roller coaster" phrase that seems to have irked some people. I don't like how easily BoomFrog appears to agree with the PW reads list comment by Sabrar - I've previously explained my standpoint on that, and it doesn't seem like BF has really thought critically about it - he was "quite convinced" by Sabrar's link, which is a surprisingly strong reaction to something so weak. His points on everyone else in that same post are fair (although obviously I disagree with his thoughts on me at the very least). Interesting that he switches from giving mpolo "not mafia points" to "townie points" for his claim apparently unintentionally (it's only as he types that and the following sentences that he starts leaning town on him from indie). Perhaps a very weak tell that he actually knows mpolo's alignment? His comments in response to Gamma Emerald seem a little weird and forcibly polite ("I need you to be more proactive" etc etc). Why does he say this to Gamma but never to anybody else who are in a similar boat? Trying to decide what to make of his comments about moody here: "I'll try to reread him if I have time but I'd say he is the hardest person to evaluate on our site (besides perhaps myself)" - whilst moody is pretty difficult to read, I feel like he might have been exaggerating a bit too much (especially given that moody was scum-read correctly by a significant chunk of players in this game) - this could be a way of trying to sow doubts in townie players' minds (especially of those unfamiliar with moody) when it comes to reading moody (and himself in fact). Elsewhere, his reads and comments around this time period are generally fine.
BoomFrog wrote:Also, jumping on the dark horse bandwagon is such a safe move.
Says someone who was voting DarkHorse himself previously. His subsequent points against plytho over voting Dark Horse instead of Red Ryu are quite fair though.

His reads list has me thinking that BoomFrog might not be moody's scum-buddy, mostly because he asks questions that just seem unlikely to come from a buddy. On the other hand, his reasons for moody being a scum-lean essentially boil down to small inconsistencies in moody's reads list (Gamma Emerald town with no reason, mpolo in neutral pile after early town read), which is hardly an amazing reason for putting him in the scum pile. At this point though, although there have been a few concerns with moody, nobody had voted him, and he didn't look likely to be the eventual lynch wagon, so it seems a little early to be labelling a scum buddy as scum. I do find it interesting that he becomes convinced of moody's scumminess without actually explaining further why when he votes, or subsequently until eventually being pressed into giving his reasons by Zyth.

Townie points for drumming up support for the main wagons. BF labelling me as likely scum-buddy with moody is lazy, given that I was voting for moody by this point, and it certainly wasn't clear that he would be lynched. I really like his day end content - it's pushing all the right buttons and people to me.

@BoomFrog - are you willing to disclose your fourth scum candidate yet? Given the flip and D2 content, what are your updated thoughts on players?

Summary - although there are definitely some weird, scummy points in BoomFrog's content, and I feel like I could manufacture a case for him being scum if I had to, I don't think he is. He certainly isn't a scum buddy with moody - his interactions around the lynch were way too pro-moody lynch for that to make sense. There is a small chance that he is on a second scum team, but I don't feel it. He's likely town, although if I get a chance, I might go back over the points that a few players have made against him, if I can find them.

FrozenFlame: His early posts seem to mostly be joking and setup speculation and information. The exception is his agreement with Sabrar over PW's reads list (which I've already covered elsewhere). His wall here includes a lot of noise for not a huge amount of content in the first half. He moves onto explaining his PW read, and attacks me for being cautious (I find that a bit weak, but that's probably because he's attacking me specifically, and I know I'm naturally cautious). In his reads list, I like how he is willing to acknowledge how he might be wrong over plytho, and isn't tunnelling there. On the other hand, most of the rest of his reads strike me as quite weak. His null read on moody doesn't look too great given the flip. In his first period after the weekend, I'm getting a big vibe of only responding to things and not really putting much effort in himself. He hasn't actually tried to get me or any of his other top scum reads to really produce good content to evaluate. He instead spends a lot of time looking at SirG and how to deal with him. He does make one good point against moody, which I like given the flip, particularly drawing the conclusion of a scum slip. He also gets a few townie points for joining in the call to vote by plytho. It's around this point that the quality of his posting picks back up more generally, in my opinion. "This moody wagon gives me really bad vibes" - this comment though is not great in hindsight, especially as he didn't explain it later. Come D2, he raises some interesting points re. mpolo's choice of target as Zyth, although I tentatively disagree, and he later backtracks on this acceptably. I would really appreciate some update reads on those he had as lynch candidates at the end of D1, and whether anybody has taken their place.
FrozenFlame wrote:Quote ping as requested

@FrozenFlame - As noted in my last sentence, please could you provide some updated reads, particularly on those you found scummy towards day end yesterday. Please explain what, if anything, has changed about those reads.

Summary - Some bits of FrozenFlame's content are pretty good, others not so great. I'm getting a general feel similar to BoomFrog here - he's not likely moody's scum buddy, but may be on a second scum team, based on his low effort in scum hunting in the latter portion of D1. Assuming only one scum team, he's not on it, in my opinion.

I'm going to post these now before moving onto others. Simply because of the time it took me to do these and last night's I'm not looking forward to re-reading Zyth, EGW or Sabrar for insane post-volumes! I'll do Zyth next, followed by Gamma Emerald and heuristically_alone, and others if I get time.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:08 pm UTC

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:@Laserguy nooo work with me! We can be townie pals and get scum together! :< I'm a bit curious why he doesn't have the same issues Ran and I do with Boom but will again read more detail on readlists later.


I've been thinking about putting something down on this but was waiting till someone asked me about it. I guess this will do.

For context, I believe that BoomFrog's self-analysis about himself being "cagey" and difficult to read I think is very accurate. This is especially true on D1. Here's a very rough sketch of his play in the 3 games I've played with him so far D1:

Spoiler:
Dark Tower: Opens the game with the quote below. Makes a lot of big pronouncements, reads people as town/scum without any explanation, moves his vote around for seemingly arbitrary reasons. Near the end of D1, he explains that he was deliberately playing scummy to try to stir up controversy in D1 and, later, to create an alternate wagon (himself) over an easy-looking lynch. Provides excellent reads, then changes gears and starts engaging very well. Essentially leads Town through D2 before getting night killed.
I am a master of the arts of Mafia. If I appear scummy then it was intentional, if I appear to be town it's meaningless. You should probably Lynch me D3 to be safe, unless SDK gets a good read on me, that guy's pretty good.


Shakespeare: Plays a fairly townie D1 with some questions and prompts (along with some truly exceptional poetry). Reads are, uh, subtle, providing little contextual information for their basis or detailed understanding of his thoughts. Keeps several meta reads on players hidden for the entire game, only noting them to be in the secret townie club.

X-Men: Plays a textbook townie game, active, asking good questions, poking people constantly and voting his reads, explaining his player analysis and thoughts in detail.


Despite the wildly different playstyles, in all three of these games he was Town. Therefore, I am extremely hesitant to point to anything in his early D1 content as inherently scummy as I have seen him conceal, or outright lie, about his thoughts despite being Town. I don't fault you for finding his D1 content scummy, I just don't believe it's a reliable indicator of his alignment at that stage of the game. What I do see is that in the latter half of D1, he was pushing the right wagon, at the right time, providing reads that I find well-founded and more-or-less agree with. I believe his reads on mpolo and Madge are genuine (though not necessarily correct), because this is very consistent with his style of reading people. I do not believe that there is any way he could be scummates with moody given his interactions with the wagon. If there is another scumteam, it's possible that he's on it, but I don't see anything to really suggest it so far. He looks like Town to me. I see absolutely nothing in his play that would make me consider voting for him at this stage.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:18 pm UTC

Gamma: I'm still reading Gamma as scum. I didn't like his D1 content and his behaviour at the end of the day didn't seem to be in tune with what was happening in thread. This D2 post bothers me as I said before. For one, it definitely doesn't disprove the two team theory. For one, we know for sure that maven was killed by scum and not the vig. The lack of a vig kill isn't related to the number of scum teams. We have one scum kill, no vig kill and no second scum kill. We know who the vig was and his likely target was Gamma. I don't think townies would have blocked maven or protected Gamma so if there was a vig shot I think scum blocked it in some way. There are a number of reasons why a second scum kill might be missing: both teams hit the same target, the killer was blocked, the target was protected,...

I think this doesn't reflect well on Gamma. Both the fact that he's alive after being maven's top scum read and the fact that he's saying one kill disproves multiple scum teams, while it actually doesn't.

This is very strange. I wouldn't expect scum to outright admit that they didn't pay attention to the lynch flip but how does a townie not check the lynch flip?

Bessie style post-by-post:
Spoiler:
post 1: content will improve
post 2: question about my answer to LaserGuy's question about my scum reads, ignoring relevant context
post 3: asks a question to mpolo about his night action
post 4: WHAT ABOUT GAMMA
post 5: mpolo up in town reads for his night action, I don't really understand why
post 6: 1 kill disproves 2 scum teams
post 7- post 8: doesn't pay attention to the lynch flip
post 9: doesn't like (the tone of) my accusation
post 10: has a list of 7 townies
last post is almost 48 hours ago

I don't see the promised improvement in content. There are a couple of mistakes, mostly ignoring context. I understand that this game can be hard to follow but if you can only provide little content, make sure that content is solid. I see nothing townie here.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:25 pm UTC

Plytho: Why the change from Zen? What's your read on him now?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Gamma Emerald » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:29 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
mpolo wrote:I fear that I am responsible for the Judgment falling onto Amrock, however. At the point when I sent in my action, Zyth was one of my town reads. Hoping he'd get killed, I swapped him with LaserGuy/Amrock.

Judgment Vote: Amrock


Wait, how does this timeline work? When did you submit your action? Why did you think Zyth would be the target of a killing action at that point in time? Is Zyth still a townread?

Gamma Emerald wrote:Holy shit mpolo just shot up in my townreads, this was my exact working theory for why Amrock was gladiated.


Why would you come to this conclusion? At the end of D1, lots of people were feeling that Zyth was looking scummy. He wasn't a prime target for scum to kill.

Zyth was very active Day 1. He could have been a scary player to the mafia. Also I think the Zyth!scum thoughts came during day 2 iirc. Either way, mpolo gave the exact reasoning I would expect from him as town.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Gamma Emerald » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:32 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:So, to get something quick, I took a lot less notes than I usually do...

My timeline was that I put in my targets at about the time that I put down my vote. I got back from the hospital and only read the result of the day (which means I have more to go back and read. Ugh.) So, it didn't occur to me to change what I had sent, even with the artificially extended night.

@LaserGuy: My comment about bessie is based on her meta / luck with the RNG -- I don't think I've seen her as scum more than once in a couple of years. As such, I try to keep some wariness of her, because the tendency is to read her as town all the time.
"Hoping he'd get killed" should be read "hoping that he would be the one to draw the kill" -- my intention was to swap the two, killing Amrock and saving Zyth (whose late-day content went downhill).

My power works on targets and switches them, i.e. vanilla Busdriver.

Reads lists (sometimes with rambling comments). The groups are not ordered within themselves:

Townie group:
EvilGeorgeWashington - suggests Megaman out himself: is that the best move? Are we sure Megaman is town -- based on flavor, I suppose so…
Sabrar
LaserGuy - Volunteers to be the last vote on Amrock for having a negative utility ability
bessie - though perhaps a little detached wrt EGW, more willing to change? Sabrar says no.

Neutral group:
Madge - weird role that is possibly Indy. Unlikely to get powered up at this point. Weird Tree Stump thing.
Peaceful Whale - so much newbie content, I'm finding it hard to read. May get himself modkilled at the rate he's missing rules.
Ryu - with somewhat scummy lean for fixating on indies, though we do have to get rid of them sooner or later in many cases
Amrock - almost certainly GladOS, almost certainly "judged" today. Following EGW
FrozenFlame - tunneling on me

Scummy group:
#HBC|Zyth - two big arguments have been posted, he has given a reasonable defense, though (I thought that it was possibly too "defensive" for a townie). Now I'm arguing in circles.
BoomFrog - I have a tendency to read him a little scummy. I think it's because of the Gargoyles game long long ago.
jimbobmacdoodle
plytho (possibly just tunneling on Zyth, though); though he also gave a vacuous answer to a reasonable question

Not enough info group:
Spak
Znirk

I have class again in 15 minutes, so I better post now.

Todo: Read day end material from yesterday

Ninjaed by Sabrar.

Where am I though?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:36 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: He's likely town, although if I get a chance, I might go back over the points that a few players have made against him, if I can find them.
EGW's opening post D2 is his case on BoomFrog

Time to sleep now.

@Zyth: I'll try to get back to your points tomorrow. I feel like I'm in the same boat as LaserGuy. My brain saw a bunch of scummy things. My gut is now saying 'but he's doing so well now, must be townie'. I do have another factor playing, my paranoia is telling me you're just competent scum able to play townie while under considerable heat.

@EGW: what I said just said. I feel there's a pretty strong townie vibe coming of Zen today. It doesn't mean I don't suspect him any more. I'll need to delve back in to his arguments. He's still in the scum pile. I think Gamma is looking much scummier though, hence the vote. Zyth is driving content at the moment which is a good thing. More to pick apart. Like his role claim. I'm quite skeptical about that. There are discrepancies in the claims and some suspicious wording.
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Gamma Emerald
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Gamma Emerald » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:41 pm UTC

plytho wrote:I’m worried about this statement from Gamma:
Gamma Emerald wrote:Yeah, with a vigilante, only one kill seems to be disproving a multiple team theory.
considering he was the likely vig target of maven. I don't think the presence of a vig influences the likeliness of two scum kills.

Gamma Emerald wrote:Also going to state Sabrar and PW have entered my townreads. I have 7 so far. My personal guess for amount of scum is 5-6, leaning towards 5, so these townreads could eventually help develop a rudimentary PoE for me to use.
Who are the other 5 and what does PoE mean? (I'm aware of Path of Exile and Power over Ethernet but they don't fit the context.)
Think about how fast numbers could go down. If the vig misfires and no crossteam kills occur, as well as no repeated kills, that 4 dead in the night (vig sgot + vig plus scum A kill + scum B kill). Also, what does me being the target have to do with anything?
PoE is process of elimination, it's a method of removing towny people and lynching people outside that pool. It's like the Clue board game. As for my other five they at this point were Madge, mpolo, Bessie, laserguy, and Znirk.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:44 pm UTC

Gamma Emerald: I want a full reads list from you.

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Gamma Emerald
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Gamma Emerald » Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:53 pm UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Vote: Znirk

Why? I agree with Bessie that Znirk isn't main mafia since he slipped not in mafia chat. He could be traitor but I don't think so, what with the know-it-all role.
@EGW I don't have solid reads on everyone, maybe I could if I went back through but I kinda don't want to.


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