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#HBC | Red Ryu
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:08 pm UTC

Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm back to asserting Znirk is town, along with being hella infuriated with Bessie quoting the WAY WRONG THING FROM ZNIRK.
PEdit: no I just blew my stack in rage at Bessie for fucking up the connection for Znirk being cleared. Although maybe it's just me being a dumbass thinking about it because she was replying archivally.


You have zero reasoning for this.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:09 pm UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
mpolo wrote:I think we're overcomplicating on the whole Judgment thing. I don't think it's necessary to have everyone unvote, just make sure that whoever we want to "hammer" unvotes and re-votes. Otherwise, we get the thing down to a couple of votes, and a scum team could use the situation to (1) judge a townie (assuming LaserGuy is town for the argument) (2) Tree-stump another townie (assuming Madge is town for the argument) and then get their night-kill in, making a trifecta of fail for town. I don't want to make something like that easy.

Ninjaed by the hopefully non-cryptographic post from Gamma Emerald.
Are you seriously arguing against free scum?


Explain the free scum part?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:12 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:
Peaceful Whale wrote:Hmm... I think the boomfrog “wagon” is kinda interesting, I’d really like to know what alignment boomfrog is, I’d say one of them is bussing him if they’re scum, and one is still probably scum if boomfrog is town... let’s wait and see.

I’m watching the plytho wagon and seeing how this unfolds, it feels like something scum could jump on easily, unlesss of course plytho is scum...


I feel if boomfrog flips scum, EGW would be more likely to her scum partner, I feel like he’d be one of the people who would try and separate himself earlier from his partner, if he thought they looked scummy. Just becuase I feel like he’s a better player tjan red Ryu, this of course depends if anyone else actually votes boomfrog and future/past votes.

I still think red Ryu is scummy... anyone else?


But but but why? ;_;

Why do you dislike me so much?

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#HBC | Red Ryu
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:16 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Red Ryu: I think the reads list should answer some of your questions. Zen doesn't match up with his town self. Especially his D1 Jimbob push. Ask yourself if Zen has given any convincing read and pushed them to death or near death. No, I only see a defense and a turtling playstyle right now. If he were town I would expect a hard push on his for sure scumread no matter what way he could get it. (Necromafia is a good example, instead of casing Kary, he just stated he copped her, which was a lie, we were both confident she was scum though) I would expect him to make a bizarre claim as mafia. I feel his fake claims as mafia are not up to par. He claimed Tracker one time as mafia when Orbo was clearly obv town and tracker. I don't expect you to see eye to eye with me on Peaceful Whale, but I think he is noob scum. (Mostly due to falling off after early game pressure and wishy washiness.


I’m not with you on Whale.

Zen is odd, I still dislike Zen and I would say my main problem with Zeb is the Moody wagon.

Zen’s defense that he would never do that is not helping, it was there by force not choice. Lynch was going that way and Zen did that vote due to following the crowd.

Either way you did answer some questions I had.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:17 pm UTC

Gamma Emerald wrote:Vote FrozenFlame
I feel after Zyth's case for himself being town this is probably scum, because it pointed out FF's post trying to mobilize votes towards me in a weird way.
Can you explain why exactly this makes Frozenflame scum?
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:19 pm UTC

plytho wrote:I’m going to try to build my reads list off the wagon analysis. This post has the wagon analysis. It has a rudimentary reads list based almost entirely on the wagons. More elaborate reads based on content will follow, scummiest looking players first. I don't know how far I'll get by when.

General thoughts on the wagons: At the point where Zen switched from jimbob to moody these were the people not on the moody wagon:
Madge (2): Madge, SirGabriel,
BoomFrog (1): Spak
Red Ryu (1):moody7277
jimbobmacdoodle (5): Frozenflame, #HBC | Zyth, Bessie,Peaceful Whale, #HBC | Red Ryu
Gamma Emerald (1): mpolo,
Spak (1): Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (2): heuristically_alone, Dark Horse

The point where Zen switched was moody’s death warrant. There may have been some hope that moody might live before, but after that switch it was over. So who are the people possibly hoping to save moody:

Madge: was going to hammer whichever wagon won if necessary
SirG: not relevant
Spak: doesn’t vote moody when he can. Moves vote from BoomFrog to Madge after being caught up late at that point moody is at 9 votes. States that he wants to have a FAIR vote down by deadline. To me this feels like dodging the vote. Even if you’re not caught up you could put down a temporary vote of at least an opinion on the four lynch targets based on what you’ve read so far. Spak doesn’t do that and waits until the last minute to not vote moody.
Moody: not relevant
FrozenFlame: The second to move to moody after Zen. Even more than Zen’s his position looks bad.
Zen: He’s the one calling the jimbob wagon dead. Bringing LaserGuy and FrozenFlame with him. I’m not convinced that Zen had the power to force mislynch there. Peaceful whale would have come over to moody for sure after a while, Frozen and bessie as well. Their cases against jimbob and pro moody weren’t strong enough to stubbornly defend their position to no-lynch.
Bessie: Bessie gets some leniency for showing up late (she announced she wouldn’t be online before) so doesn’t look nearly as bad as the others.
Peaceful Whale: The first to move after Zen. He’s just trying to follow town consensus.
Red Ryu: Claims not to care about neither moody nor jimbob, but he’s the only one (other than moody) still voting jimbob at days end. Despite saying he’d be around to switch. Really not looking good.
Mpolo: hospitalized
Gamma Emerald: Similar to Spak: he shows up late and votes jimbob long after that wagon is dead (moody gives up around this point).
Heuristically alone: not present
Dark Horse: not present

Likelihood of being buddies with moody:
More likely:
Red Ryu
Spak
Gamma Emerald
FrozenFlame
Bessie
Zen
Madge
Peaceful Whale
Less likely

Not relevant/available: SirG, heuristically_alone, Dark Horse, mpolo

People on the moody wagon:
moody7277 (7): BoomFrog, jimbobmacdoodle, Sabrar, Evil George Washington, plytho, Znirk, Maven89


These people get townie points for being on the right wagon.
BoomFrog: quite early on the wagon
Jimbobmacdoodle: was on this wagon before his own started, he wasn’t trying to saeve himself
Sabrar: I said before that Zen’s switch killed moody but it was Sabrar, with EGW (and me) that put his head on the chopping block. Solid town points there.
Evil George Washington: See Sabrar.
Plytho: See Sabrar
Znirk: said his vote was pretty much blind, but he voted at 5-6 to make it 5-7 instread of 6-6 which pushed the balance sufficiently towards moody to make his lynch the most likely. voted at 5-5 to make it 5-6 (at which point our senior wagonomist Zen seemed to realise it would be moody) So still a pretty good look.
Maven: I almost didn’t put maven on this list, making it look like Znirk was the 7th vote. instead he was 6th, making Znirk looking slightly less good)

Likelihood of being buddies with moody:
Very unlikely:
Sabrar
Evil George Washington
Jimbobmacdoodle
Znirk
BoomFrog
unlikely


Tldr I am scum with moody because he got hammered before I could be around to switch.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:20 pm UTC

Gamma Emerald wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:
Amrock wrote:Ran do you want me to vote with you this period??


Vote Gamma please. :)

Nah fuck that, read me yourself, you have more experience with me than her, and you were good in FWiaB


Do you have anything other than weak votes and self preservation as top priority over trying to help find scum?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:23 pm UTC

Gamma - Frog - Znirk - other inactive is my bottom 4 let’s lynch gamma.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:26 pm UTC

I'm still catching up and making a post wrt the past 6 pages. Any questions I haven't yet addressed will be in that post. I'm not sure if I have enough time today to finish though, so I want to drop my Spak case here now in case I'm unable to.

Spak


A, for "Active Lurking".
It's funny that bessie is getting on plytho for "active lurking", because Spak's posts are the epitome of such. Spak consistently voices his opinion about events/situations that have already been well addressed. He does so well beyond the point where his opinion would've been useful. Let me show some examples. These were in his end of the day catch up posts:

On Dark Horse: I don't think we should kill him if there's a possibility of a replacement. With that said, we wouldn't want him reaching endgame because nobody would get caught up in time if they were to replace in (assuming town!Dark Horse).

On the SirG kill: I was gonna complain that killing a bomber was a bad idea because it'd leave us with an even number, but the setup started with 20 anyways. I see very few downsides to having someone suspicious hammering SirG if we think his claim is legitimate and he's not using it as a front to get voted and trigger some sort of other ability.

This is also a possibility. Someone hammering SirG is essentially them killing themselves (assuming SirG is telling the truth). I think modkilling the slot is the only for everyone to agree to actually killing the confirmed Indy slot since nobody wants to die.


There's of course nothing wrong with these in isolation. It's the point of time that Spak is making these comments that is off-putting. These were well beyond the point that we were discussing any of these things. Since it was the end of the day and the vote count was split between jim, moody, madge, gamma, and ruy, it was fairly clear that no one was gunning for a SirG or Dark Horse at this point. For someone who is trying to get caught up for the end of the day, addressing these things seems like a complete waste of time. I'd expect a town player, who who is behind and trying to get caught up for the end of the day, to be looking into players at this juncture; particularly the top lynch candidates. I know if I were behind, I would be ISOing the top lynch candidates in order to make as much of an informed vote as possible. Spak, instead, is wasting his time responding to itty bitty things and giving is opinion on strategy debates that are irrelevant at this point.

All of Spak's posts have so obviously been made solely for the sake of having content out there. There is a potential pro-town motivation behind this. A town!Spak who has been having difficulty staying caught up, might think that it is important that he at least have something out there -- to contribute to town some way. But these are all the wrong things to contribute. Debating strategy says very little about your alignment, because it is purely logic based. Your subjective opinion on players is the content that really matters. Spak provides very little of this. When he is commenting on players, he's just praising a post or giving some objective reason as to why someone shouldn't read into something:

I appreciate the analysis that went into this post a lot and it's very useful in the case of scum!Whale to find connections, but I'd lean towards not considering a relatively new player's reads scummy based upon the fact that they sound a whole lot like other people's reads. I had a town game where I had reads almost identical to another SB player called J (and someone brought this to everyone's attention, causing me to almost get lynched). It's more of an inexperience tell, unless you know the player has a lot of games under their belt. Then it starts to get a little suspicious.

Also, I fail to see why everyone still thinks Madge is automatically town. Sure meta has a little bit to do with things, but at least from my experience, meta doesn't play a big enough role to guarantee an alignment. Ryu seems to be the only one who's acknowledged that Madge's role could be identical to what he's stating, but just indie instead of town.

+1 for this post

I'm not sure if I'd ping her for that. It's a good thing to take note of, but we know the mods that came up & balanced the setup very well and I think she just decided to take our word for it because our Mafia setups are different from you guys' meta-wise.

I'm not 100% sure about how Zen would play this because I've never done any games with her, but in general DGames scumteams try to avoid unnatural association like this. Bessie may well have been doing this to try and make Zen look better, but I don't think Zen would request another player to come in and vote.

Ninja edits aren't a thing on SWF because we're notified when a new post has occurred in the thread without having to refresh the page (so we can look at posts real-time as people put them up). We are occasionally ninja'd, but then we just say so in the next post and then reply to whatever we were ninja'd by.

Aside from that, I'm not sure what to think of your Bessie/Zen scumteam. Bessie was my fourth strongest town lean thus far this game and I still have Zen as a scumlean, but I agree that there's a strange association between the two and bessie's vote and assessment of the situation don't match up.

In retrospect, I can see where he was coming from. The vote was going to be so split between trying to activate Madge and trying to find a wagon target that we might've had a NL if the nominated slot were to turn us down and not had enough time to re-organize. Sure, that would be the sure person for the next day's lynch, but if it were just a defiant townie, we'd be wasting 2 lynches.

Until very recently (when I had to replace in for Ro in my most recent SWF game), I was of the mindset that you should never let your slot die because most of the time, it's the only confirmed townie thing in the game. It took two years for it to click that sometimes town has to die in order for all of the rest of town to figure out the game. The point of being suspicious of anyone they were looking at the SirG wagon might have been going too far, but I think that was just him trying to pressure a lot of people (as he had done in the past). A SirG lynch would've been a legitimate plan, but depending upon the player who we instructed to hammer, it could've also gone very poorly



In the interst of fairness, he did have a few good remarks:
Spoiler:
I've never played with Zen, but the way in which she's kinda all over the place bugs me that late in the phase. She seems to lack clear direction which, while unpredictable and might catch someone sometime, seems to be more of just hunting for the sake of hunting and not making much out of the pushes that she begins.

@Other DGamers who have played on the site longer than me (and have played with Zen), is this normal Zen play, or does it seem off in comparison to what you've seen in the past?

This is a rather quick change of opinion.

I don't really see why everyone's being so hard on Ryu; he's playing as I'd normally expect him to, and find his analyses fairly convincing.

(In reference to Maven's post at viewtopic.php?f=53&t=123409&start=600#p4244293):
I found the case against Gamma to be good. It showed me that he's gotten away with doing nothing pretty much all game, while trying to still look active. I know what it's like to be troubled with being super busy and falling behind because college (which is why I've been trying to catch up for the past couple hours), but he's not even trying to scumhunt.

The OMGUS is strong in this one lol

But the valuelessness in his posts significantly outweighs these 5 lines. The overall shape of his play is negative, and there is very little drive to find scum behind it. I contrast this to plytho. The idea that plytho is active lurking is bull to me. While plytho has been debating theory and strategy, he's been simultaneously scum hunting. The VAST majority of his posts are scum hunting. There's no problem at all with debating theory if it's a very small portion of what you're doing (and plytho has shown multiple times that his apparently irrelevant posts are completely relevant to the arguments being had). There's also no problem with making little remarks on things, as many of us have done. Spak's play, however, is MOSTLY of this type.


B, for "Boomfrog Tunnel".

"With that said, I still think that BoomFrog is scummy to the green, slippery, explosive core."

I cannot seriously be the only one that sees that this belief is way too strong for Spak to have. His entire case on Boom is that:

-Boom should not be able to read Madge from her intro post.
-Boom should not be able to read mpolo from his intro post.

Yet, Sabrar did the former and I did the latter. By the logic of Spak's case, he should be scum reading the two of us too! Furthermore, Spak has made no effort to continue delving into Boom's posts. He has not followed up on this and he has not asked Boom any questions. The whole purpose of this read is for the sake of having a read.

As I said in my reads post yesterDay, Spak has not made any attempt to branch out from this. He is not scumhunting at all. There is so much content to go off of. Most of us are approaching this game like a puzzle, trying to fit the pieces together. Spak's approach to the game is taking one of those puzzle pieces and placing it alone on an otherwise empty table.


C, for "Completely avoided a wagon".

Spak completely avoided choosing a wagon yesterday. Everyone is looking too deeply at the EoD wagons, looking for conspiracy busses and buddy-save attempts, but if you step back and look at what's right there on the surface, it's the non-commitment that is the most telling. I think that Spak was put in a position where he had to either contribute to the lynch of his mate or potentially draw attention to himself by voting the opposition. He froze and chose neither.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:26 pm UTC

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:Tldr I am scum with moody because he got hammered before I could be around to switch.

Well you said you'd "be around to switch if need be today" I didn't interpret that as you only being around close to the deadline.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:49 pm UTC

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:
mpolo wrote:I think we're overcomplicating on the whole Judgment thing. I don't think it's necessary to have everyone unvote, just make sure that whoever we want to "hammer" unvotes and re-votes. Otherwise, we get the thing down to a couple of votes, and a scum team could use the situation to (1) judge a townie (assuming LaserGuy is town for the argument) (2) Tree-stump another townie (assuming Madge is town for the argument) and then get their night-kill in, making a trifecta of fail for town. I don't want to make something like that easy.

Ninjaed by the hopefully non-cryptographic post from Gamma Emerald.


This is also where I stand on the voting and inviting idea Btw.
Are you serious. Not agreeing to this is essentially saying "I don't want to give town an extra tool to finding scum and optimizing our day play!"

I quit. Someone just shoot me.

Vote: #HBC | Zyth

Spoiler:
just kidding

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:51 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@Zen: Why have you not delved into the votes you put so much effort into generating D1?
Same question to Madge. I don't think I've seen her vote analysis? (could have missed it though)
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:33 pm UTC

Zen, can you please write out the scenarios showing how we get free scum with your plan? I haven't been following this (despite my love for logic puzzles).

Also that self vote is weird. I don't like it.

I have a pretty busy schedule this weekend I'll get as many reads out as I can tomorrow morning, possibly ignoring my current top town reads.

Two of my bottom four:
Gamma and spak.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:39 pm UTC

Spak was here, didn't post.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:43 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Zen, can you please write out the scenarios showing how we get free scum with your plan? I haven't been following this (despite my love for logic puzzles).

Also that self vote is weird. I don't like it.

I have a pretty busy schedule this weekend I'll get as many reads out as I can tomorrow morning, possibly ignoring my current top town reads.

Two of my bottom four:
Gamma and spak.

Nope.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:54 pm UTC

Sorry, forgot you said you were busy too.

Someone else? Let's make sure we optimize this.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:09 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Sorry, forgot you said you were busy too.

Someone else? Let's make sure we optimize this.

We aren't discussing it further. The points have been made. You can easily be read them. There's no reason to keep reiterating and giving you something more to "active lurk" with :wink:

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:37 pm UTC

Zen Vote Gamma please.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:42 pm UTC

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:Zen Vote Gamma please.

Town read him. Read my Spak case, please.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:48 pm UTC

Switching Spak with Peaceful Whale.

Gamma - Zen - Znirk - Spak.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:51 pm UTC

Zen I'm waiting on those responses.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Gamma Emerald » Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:57 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
Gamma Emerald wrote:Vote FrozenFlame
I feel after Zyth's case for himself being town this is probably scum, because it pointed out FF's post trying to mobilize votes towards me in a weird way.
Can you explain why exactly this makes Frozenflame scum?

Because his timing was explicitly mentioned as a turning point.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Gamma Emerald » Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:59 pm UTC

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:
Gamma Emerald wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:
Amrock wrote:Ran do you want me to vote with you this period??


Vote Gamma please. :)

Nah fuck that, read me yourself, you have more experience with me than her, and you were good in FWiaB


Do you have anything other than weak votes and self preservation as top priority over trying to help find scum?

Yeah but now I kinda feel weird saying anything.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:04 pm UTC

Gamma give me your Bottom 4 and reasons why.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Gamma Emerald » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:12 pm UTC

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:
Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm back to asserting Znirk is town, along with being hella infuriated with Bessie quoting the WAY WRONG THING FROM ZNIRK.
PEdit: no I just blew my stack in rage at Bessie for fucking up the connection for Znirk being cleared. Although maybe it's just me being a dumbass thinking about it because she was replying archivally.


You have zero reasoning for this.

On another close reading I noticed Bessie retracted the read. So again bumped to townread and this time I'm clearly to blame for the mistake. I was about to start getting leery with Bessie though since I wasn't seeing the indication of how she got the knowledge of daychat.
PEdit: sure. I was thinking of doing that after this post.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:13 pm UTC

Updated reads from towniest to scummiest:

Peaceful Whale: My read here hasn't really changed from when I read him as newbie town in my opening post. I would love to see more engagement in the thread from him.
Madge: I can understand why people find her scummy, since, but a lot of conventional measures, her content does look that was. I do believe that Sabrar's detailed analysis of her playstyle is accurate and is consistent with my experience with her, and am largely basing this read on Sabrar, BoomFrog and bessie all vouching for her.

bessie: I still have issues with this post, which feels very inconsistent with what I normally expect of her and I do find it interesting that she has not since followed up on jimbob either. That said, the rest of her content, notably her push on plytho, looks very good to me.

BoomFrog: I've already explained in some detail my reason for finding BoomFrog townie here and don't really have much to add to that assessment. His town-to-scum is pretty much identical to mine with the exception of me, which makes me pretty confident that we're on the same page. Although I was a little surprised at the time he was reading me scum, it actually makes sense to me now that I think about it why he'd read me this way, so I'm inclined to give him townie points for consistency.

mpolo: Fairly light on content due to IRL reasons. I think his reasoning for his initial claim, as well as his swap of Zyth/SirG look like their coming from a Townie place, so leaving this as a town lean.

Gamma:
FrozenFlame wrote:I'm totally game for a Gamma wagon so if there's more to this please let me know

plytho wrote:Vote: Gamma Emerald

Red Ryu wrote:Vote: Gamma

EGW wrote:Unvote; Vote: Gamma

jimbob wrote:Scum: Gamma Emerald, Zyth

Yeah, no way I'm voting this slot. In terms of his play, I certainly see the reasons for people finding this slot scummy. He kind of reminds me of heuristically_alone, actually, in that he makes some odd remarks and has a bit of weird logic, but that might not necessarily be alignment indicative. Will see how the slot looks in later days if I'm around, but I'm not at all comfortable with lynching him today.

Zyth: I found it odd that nobody seemed interested or willing to engage in my case here, except for Zyth in defending himself. This isn't a strong tell in and of itself, but the fact that nobody was eager to defend him or join the push gave me a bit of pause, especially compared to the reaction to my brief posts on FrozenFlame that I'll discuss in my read of him.

Zyth made a valiant effort to defend himself, and managed to do it in such a way that it he didn't set off any of my bullshit detectors. I think I was caught up by his shoot-first-ask-questions-later style of play, but when he actually did go back and explain his reasoning, everything seemed to check out. Marking him as Town lean for now, we'll see how things develop going forward.

heury: Hasn't posted in 11 days and counting. As I speculated here, lacking any better evidence, I think the very extended delay on any action being taken on this slot kind of points towards Town.

Sabrar: Really on the fence about Sabrar. My gut reaction is that his play is Town. I don't care for a lot of his reads, but Sabrar and I reading people very differently isn't really anything new. His push on Zyth is perfectly in line with how I expect him to react in such a situation and his tunneling does not feel out-of-line. I like his defense of Madge, though it seemed maybe a bit excessive given the lack of actual pressure on her. With EGW moving down into the scummy pile, Sabrar is looking more likely to be Town.

jimbob:: I really wish I had time to go through all of jimbob's recent content in more detail. Maybe I'll try to get to it on the weekend. On first blush, it looks a lot more like I would expect from jimbob. I don't necessarily see this as alignment-indicative, however, as jimbob can produce great-looking reads as either Town or Scum. I have a lot of disagreement with him, but his read on FrozenFlame definitely fed into my later suspicions. Don't want to lynch him today, will need to nitpick my way through his content before I can really get a better sense of his alignment.

EGW: Has moved down since my previous list after posting his reads. There's very little for me to like here at all. He finds Spak and FrozenFlame nulls despite their general lack of scumhunting or even reads. He was pushing BoomFrog for a very long time on a case that doesn't jive at all with my impressions. Asks why I didn't respond to his pushes on BoomFrog and Znirk, but 1) I did reply about BoomFrog, he just didn't read the post, apparently, and 2) he didn't push Znirk at all, he just put down a naked vote with no explanation. I already explained in my reasoning Znirk being town in my opening post and have speculated that the lack of interaction with the slot also points to town. The fact that his lynch pool is, IMHO, all townies don't not give me great feelings about the slot. Too many conclusions are wrong, too many scummy players are being given a pass. Moving to scum lean.

Red Ryu: Got a bunch of questions for me that I haven't responded to me. Sorry, let's take a look.
Ryu wrote:Laserguy I can see him having different style but a meta reason doesn't really relate to this game in particular. Why should that clear or make him less likely to be scum? However you think his D1 is bad but also kind of find it relatable? Is it the same are Madge with a hard to step into the game sort of thing? I don't think so, it looks more deliberate.


I'm not sure who you're referring to here? Is this about Frozen? Peaceful Whale?

How is his (Frozen's) content Fluff?


I think this is sort of explained in the next post down, but just to reiterate, I don't see a lot of active townie behaviour out of Frozen. Look at this post, or this one, or even this one. How much of this is actually trying to figure out people's alignment? Or poke holes in people's arguments? How much of it just him agreeing with people or discussing theory? The bulk of his posting is fluff. It's weird that you can't see this. Again, in the unlikely event you're town, I really do encourage you to read his iso from Dark Tower to get a sense of the difference I'm describing. His content is worse than Gamma's.

He's here partly by process of elimination, partly because I don't care much for any of his reads, and his interactions with other players I find scummy I find troubling. I'd probably be okay with the lynch here, but I'd prefer one of my bottom three.

Spak: Discount FrozenFlame. Virtually all of the same problems that apply to FrozenFlame, apply to Spak as well... lack of scumhunting, active lurking, lazy reads. Don't really have much to add here that Zyth hasn't already.

FrozenFlame: Interesting that my few brief posts on FrozenFlame elicited commentary from Ryu, EGW, Frozen himself, and likewise Gamma's vote on him generated commentary from Ryu, and plytho. The reaction here from this particular group of players and nobody else is very interesting to me.

As far as my actual read is concerned, I stand by my commentary here. Frozen has not engaged in any real scumhunting or really made any proper reads since early in D1. He read jimbob as scum, but never made any real attempts to push his case or otherwise engage the thread. He seems to be more interested in clearing out lurkers and dealing with Amrock than actually looking for real scum. Scummy.

Revised Town to Scum
LaserGuy
Peaceful Whale
Madge
bessie
BoomFrog
mpolo
Gamma
Zyth
heury
Sabrar
jimbob

Indie:
Amrock

Scum:
EGW
Red Ryu
Spak
plytho
FrozenFlame

Lynch pool:
{Frozen, plytho, Spak, Ryu}

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:17 pm UTC

EBWOP:

Forgot Znirk... pretty much same place as heury, plus he's got a towntell. So going town on that slot too.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:17 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
A) Do you understand my read of gamma's "town slip"? All of gamma's other content is terrible, but it's blatantly terrible, like gamma is just bad at reading people. But that town slip feels genuine. B) I'm starting to agree on plytho. The lynch vote analysis looks good, and honestly, shamelessly sticking to his "scummy meta" is a bold move for scum. I'm leaning more town on him. C) PW isn't on the possibilities today but I agree he needs to put out more opinions on specific people, otherwise he's going to slide down everyone's lists just from process of elimination. D) My Zen read is old (I've been giggling to myself about the cajones line for two days on my bus rides home from work). But you raise some very good points. I'm not for lynching her but I've got some questions. (Next post).E) You and plytho's points about Sabrar are good. My only strong ping is his read on me being wrong. @Sabrar: Do you find me scummy still? why, specifically? If not, what convinced you?


A) Gamma plays the same was as scum. His logic can be bad regardless of alignment. His posts lately have been forced, especially the post where he rages at Bessie for his own mistake. It reads the same as Moody's initial response to Mpolo's role, meaning it shows he is not being genuine about describing why he misread Znirk's townslip. I generally read scum slips or town slips as null. B) I agree. C) I can at least agree to him having to give out more opinions on people, and possibly putting down a vote. Keep an eye on him. D) He is charming and funny, that is true. Don't let that stop you from reading him correctly though. E) Fair enough.

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Gamma Emerald
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Gamma Emerald » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:22 pm UTC

Top 4:
FrozenFlame: don't like their push on mpolo today, I find Zyth's logic for scumreading him solid
Red Ryu: I don't like how he just asserts inactives need to die, feels like rigid application of a policy that should be fluid. I also agree that something would have been done if the inactives were scum with living buddies.
plytho: He seems to be pushing a single viewpoint with no desire to reconsider.
Spak: Apparently he's been skulking about the forums, also I still distrust his scumreading Madge's self-vote.

My order is probably FF > plytho > Red Ryu > Spak.

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Peaceful Whale
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Peaceful Whale » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:23 pm UTC

I’m not going to be all that active, my cousin just died... :cry: Maybe you’ll have to replace me, I don’t know. I think we’ve used all of our replacements, maybe when someone dies they can sub in for me.
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:25 pm UTC

God, I'm so sorry PW :( Don't worry about us. Real life comes first.

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:26 pm UTC

@PW: that sucks. Best wishes and don't feel any pressure to continue to play if you don't feel it.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:27 pm UTC

I hope everything is alright.

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FrozenFlame
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D1 Begins! | 9/13

Postby FrozenFlame » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:29 pm UTC

This game is fucking painful to reread. Ugh

I've been slogging through the thread from the very beginning and just ctrl+f'ing for moody7277 on each page and literally reading everything that mentions his name. Fuck this is going to be so disorganized but I'm burned the fuck out from this reread grind so sorry folks

Disconnection Interactions:

Plytho:
plytho wrote:Additional thoughts on people that were pretty neutral on my reads list:

Moody7277:I think moody’s moving down a bit. His posts are mostly defensive. Most are about his comment on mpolo’s claim. There’s zero scum hunting. He only asked 3 questions so far:
Super solid early attack on the slot by plytho, well before any wagon begins to form. Very good look for plytho

plytho wrote:
moody7277 wrote:
plytho wrote:
moody7277 wrote: We've got several good candidates, so that you'll most likely be around to me eventually (points to sig) if not D1.
I don't understand this sentence. If there are several good (lynch?) candidates shouldn't it be less likely for us to get to you?


I figure that the set of {me, red ryu, gamma} is what is going to be the lynches for D1-3 (hopefully not in that order :P ) depending on coppings and viges of course.
It looks like you haven't been paying attention, or you know we won't lynch jimbob after you flip.
Another solid interaction here for plytho. I really don't see these slots being aligned. Again this is all pre-moody wagon which mitigates bus risk. Plytho would have had to have pretty solid foresight to be building bus cred this early

EGW:

EGW post #286 comes down hard with a scumread on moody

Evil George Washington wrote:
moody7277 wrote:So, if your sure I'm scum, does my behavior towards mpolo imply he's scum as well?


Your alignment has no influence in how I read MPOLO's alignment. He is null individually. What's the purpose in you asking this question?
No way EGW throws in this "whats the purpose of the question" inquiry at a scummate IMO, unless he's gotten way more slick at distancing. EGW looking solid

I get a really general feel from moody's posts that he was always open to an RR push which makes me trust that slot a little more

Sabrar looks great also re: early game interactions with moody.He has an early callout on moody auto believing mpolo's claim which is pretty solid. Also was first on the wagon so yeah, just reinforces my conviction that he's a non-play

Let's look at a moody read list:

moody7277 wrote:town leaning:
bessie, BoomFrog, FrozenFlame, Gamma Emerald (slightly), Sabrar

neutral:
EGW, Red Ryu, mpolo (barely above insufficient data), SirG (barely above insufficient data), Znirk (barely above insufficient data)

scummy:
heury (slightly), PW (slightly), plytho (very slightly)

insufficient data:
Madge, Dark Horse, Zyth*, jimbob, Maven, Spak

*put her here because I'm getting a SDK-like vibe of Zyth, and I suck at reading SDK.
Plytho inclusion on scummy list w/ heury and PW is wack af IMO. Also notice the distinction ("very slightly") as opposed to the "slightly" modifier on heury and PW. Maybe moody has a tell where he tends to overdistinguish on reads he's truly faking. Makes me really wonder what the deal is with Gamma being the only "slightly" town read. Feels like subconscious hedging in a sense. Fake a GE town read cuz he's your buddy (pre-wagon) and throw your "very slightly" scummy read in just to get people thinking about a plytho wagon even though your own verbage seems to suggest neutral would be a better fit? hmmmmm

Also the whole "Zyth reads like SDK and I can never read SDK awww gosh darn guess I wont be able to get a read" also looks hella suspect. Possible cop out of having to building connections with one of your louder scum buddies perhaps?

moody7277 wrote:At this point, they are about equivalently scummy. I'd be just as happy to lynch Gamma if that was where everyone else were going.
This is in the context of someone asking re: his willingness to lynch RR or GE. This post reads like "sure I'd bus Gamma, but only if that's what everyone else wants to do." Like he's open to getting the bus cred but doesn't want to rock the boat and force a buddy of his to be lynched when he thinks a viable mislynch might go through.

#HBC | YOLOSWAG wrote:Vote Count 1.10
Madge (4): Madge, SirGabriel, Znirk, Peaceful Whale
BoomFrog (1): Spak
Red Ryu (1): moody7277
jimbobmacdoodle (2): Frozenflame, #HBC | Zyth
SirGabriel (1): #HBC | Red Ryu
moody7277 (4): Sabrar, BoomFrog, Evil George Washington, jimbobmacdoodle
Gamma Emerald (3): Maven89, mpolo, plytho
Spak (1): Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (3): heuristically_alone, Bessie, Dark Horse

With 20 alive, it takes 11 to lynch!

Deadline Clock: https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/basketball?iso=20170913T235959&p0=198&msg=D1+End&font=sanserif


Everyone on moody at this point in the game lookin helllllllla solid IMO

Some gross connections between moody and Zyth:

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Need More/Lynch Worthy:
Dark Horse
Znirk
moody7277


One of these things in not like the other... Literally two of the most inactive slots in the game, if not THE two most inactive, grouped with... moody? Huh? Seems like a convenient way to keep a bus candidate in your lynchpool to build cred.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Need More/Lynch Worthy:
Dark Horse
Yolo probably hasn't noticed that DH needs replacing. If he has and is just ignoring us, then I'm down to lynch today. Needs to go. The mod insisted that we lynch lurkers. I don't think it should be ignored. Edit: Sabrar confirmed that marshy is indeed aware. Edit Edit: plytho has confirmed that the lynch lurkers thing is a general OS rule. I guess we just wait on this slot for now.

Znirk
Only 3 posts? T_______________________________T

Moody7277
¯\_(ツ)_/¯


The fact that he does this shit again, dodging having to explain the inclusion of moody because he can't even say he's as inactive as the other two slots in question, just reeks of a fake read. It's such a bizarre grouping. Moody was far more active than either of the two inactive slots. He actually had content to engage with. Yet Zyth says nothing? Shrugs off the read? Tosses him in with the literal inactives that Zyth actually went out of his way to identify as inactives? And offers us nothing on the slot with actual content to engage? :thinkingemoji:

Final tidbit, PW has a weird ass read on moody early both townreading and scumreading him early. Lost my tab with the quote in box in it but it was this:

"Moody always seems scummy to me, it may be because of my bias, but that's it. Other than that he's pretty townie."

Like what? But again this could just be more PW noob shit

Unvote: Mpolo

Vote: Gamma Emerald


Totally digging this wagon. Haven't felt good about Gamma all game.

Zyth I literally have no idea what you're asking us to do with this unvote all judgement votes shit. If you're concerned with controlling who hammers judgement, you literally just have to tell that person to unvote and then revote before we end the day and they'll be the "last" vote on the judgement wagon and thus technically "hammer," even though there is no such think on judgement because its a plurality vote, not majority. Plus I think you're probably wasting your time anyway because since there is no "hammer" on judgement, its probably gonna be LaserGuy who was the "cause" of the death of whoever dies to judgement because it was his ability. But hey if I'm missing something uniquely beneficial feel free to get me up to speed.

Back to work and I'll try to check the thread again sometime tonight

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Gamma Emerald
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Gamma Emerald » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:32 pm UTC

My tryhard levels are rising and I want to do more so here are some townread explanations.
Madge: in addition to the claim has been trying to help, even when faced with having no sense of direction.
mpolo: I feel his actions make sense from a town perspective quite a bit
LaserGuy: I feel his role and how he used it is pretty towny.
Zyth: got the moody wagon moving
Znirk: had some unsubstantiated reads I felt were genuine
PW: if he was scum his buddies would have reamed him for his amount of infractions of game rules.
BoomFrog: He hasn't been pushing me, and I'm pretty much LHF right now.
Bessie: had a point where she asked about fakeclaims that didn't feel forced, also I feel her contributions are genuine
Sabrar: I feel his content is town driven
EGW: I feel like he's town but I haven't done close analysis yet. This is my first time actually having to sort him since The Thing Mafia, and I did fairly well then so I'm probably going to cross-reference that game.

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:43 pm UTC

@Zen: you think Spak could be Mason. You downgrade him 2 days later when it becomes clear that can't be the case. You make your very detailed case against him half a day later. Spak didn't post at all during this whole period. What was your timeline? When and why did you decide to re-read Spak line-by-line?

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FrozenFlame
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby FrozenFlame » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:50 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:FrozenFlame:
As far as my actual read is concerned, I stand by my commentary here. Frozen has not engaged in any real scumhunting or really made any proper reads since early in D1. He read jimbob as scum, but never made any real attempts to push his case or otherwise engage the thread. He seems to be more interested in clearing out lurkers and dealing with Amrock than actually looking for real scum. Scummy.
Lmao this is such a joke. It's absolutely laughable that you think its scummy to want to take out liability slots and clear out known anti-town slots in the early game when we're already off to a fantastic start with a scum lynch D1. We're ahead, why not do some housekeeping? Every single townie alive in endgame will benefit from having only slots with meaningful paper trail and voting activity left alive. Letting those slots ride to endgame creates a nightmare deathpool of easy mislynches for scum to take advantage of. We certainly wont have the luxury of being able to say "eh, lets just clear out this awful question mark" later in the game if we start approaching or are in LYLO/MYLO. We can afford to play safe and make our lives easier in the long run. Why would we not do that? This ludicrously dense dogma of "Oh me yarm HOW DARE YOU SUGGEST WE LYNCH ON ANY BASIS OTHER THAN SCUMMINESS" is just facile. It completely ignores the reality that mafia is a multi phase game, and moves made in the early game have massive impacts in the late game. If you leave yourself with a pool of folks who haven't said or done shit all game, you're going to have a hell of a time sorting them when endgame arrives. Even if an active player seems scummy, you don't really lose much by waiting a bit to off them. You get more paper trail. They have to take more risks. You get to see if they will try to wriggle out from under the pressure over time. With shit slots that don't do anything, you end up having to play around them until you literally can't anymore. And then you fucking lose. Being aware of and afraid of that shit as about as townie as it gets

Yeah, I'll admit that my reads have been pretty lazy this game. But frankly, this game isn't exactly an easy one to digest. Tons of slots, tons of powers, tons of idea being thrown around. It's hard to pinpoint scum with any high degree of conviction this early, barring massive misplay from the scum. Sorry I don't overstate my convictions. I just lay out who I think are strong strategic plays and who aren't, plain and simple. If I get a strong read, I'll say so. But generally I'm picking lynch targets early through the lens of risk management AND scumminess, with the risk management aspect fading quickly with time, ideally as the risks are removed. I'm not going to come in here and say I'm been sherlock holmes, but I will say that I've been consistent with my reads and my general approach to this game. I'm sure y'all probably wish I had more thorough rationale for how I feel about many slots, and frankly so do it, but I DONT have better rationale and I'm telling you all straight up what limited factors I'm weighing at this point.

Idk maybe you think that's an unacceptable attitude for a townie to have, and maybe I'm just super lazy/jaded about what it really means to "scumhunt" but the fact that you can't see that I've been clearly communicating who I'm down to lynch all game, even if it isn't accompanied by a dissertation, just comes off as hella dense.

Gamma Emerald wrote:Top 4:
FrozenFlame: don't like their push on mpolo today, I find Zyth's logic for scumreading him solid.


lmao what push? I voted mpolo at the start based on a misconception I had about the LaserGuy/mpolo ability interaction last night. I kept the vote on for awhile to confirm/deny whether amrock had truly given me a double vote. Once he clarified that it would only work on PW, I just didn't unvote until I had a chance to re-read the thread a bit. And now that I have, I'm on you. I haven't seriously pushed for mpolo pretty much all day and the fact that this late in the phase you're characterizing me as such is suuuuuper grimey. It's like you just saw my vote was there and assumed I must be pushing him when there was clear context to explain the languishing vote

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:52 pm UTC

@Sabrar: Other than Zyth, who are your strongest scum reads at this point?

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Gamma Emerald
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Gamma Emerald » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:53 pm UTC

FrozenFlame wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:FrozenFlame:
As far as my actual read is concerned, I stand by my commentary here. Frozen has not engaged in any real scumhunting or really made any proper reads since early in D1. He read jimbob as scum, but never made any real attempts to push his case or otherwise engage the thread. He seems to be more interested in clearing out lurkers and dealing with Amrock than actually looking for real scum. Scummy.
Lmao this is such a joke. It's absolutely laughable that you think its scummy to want to take out liability slots and clear out known anti-town slots in the early game when we're already off to a fantastic start with a scum lynch D1. We're ahead, why not do some housekeeping? Every single townie alive in endgame will benefit from having only slots with meaningful paper trail and voting activity left alive. Letting those slots ride to endgame creates a nightmare deathpool of easy mislynches for scum to take advantage of. We certainly wont have the luxury of being able to say "eh, lets just clear out this awful question mark" later in the game if we start approaching or are in LYLO/MYLO. We can afford to play safe and make our lives easier in the long run. Why would we not do that? This ludicrously dense dogma of "Oh me yarm HOW DARE YOU SUGGEST WE LYNCH ON ANY BASIS OTHER THAN SCUMMINESS" is just facile. It completely ignores the reality that mafia is a multi phase game, and moves made in the early game have massive impacts in the late game. If you leave yourself with a pool of folks who haven't said or done shit all game, you're going to have a hell of a time sorting them when endgame arrives. Even if an active player seems scummy, you don't really lose much by waiting a bit to off them. You get more paper trail. They have to take more risks. You get to see if they will try to wriggle out from under the pressure over time. With shit slots that don't do anything, you end up having to play around them until you literally can't anymore. And then you fucking lose. Being aware of and afraid of that shit as about as townie as it gets

Yeah, I'll admit that my reads have been pretty lazy this game. But frankly, this game isn't exactly an easy one to digest. Tons of slots, tons of powers, tons of idea being thrown around. It's hard to pinpoint scum with any high degree of conviction this early, barring massive misplay from the scum. Sorry I don't overstate my convictions. I just lay out who I think are strong strategic plays and who aren't, plain and simple. If I get a strong read, I'll say so. But generally I'm picking lynch targets early through the lens of risk management AND scumminess, with the risk management aspect fading quickly with time, ideally as the risks are removed. I'm not going to come in here and say I'm been sherlock holmes, but I will say that I've been consistent with my reads and my general approach to this game. I'm sure y'all probably wish I had more thorough rationale for how I feel about many slots, and frankly so do it, but I DONT have better rationale and I'm telling you all straight up what limited factors I'm weighing at this point.

Idk maybe you think that's an unacceptable attitude for a townie to have, and maybe I'm just super lazy/jaded about what it really means to "scumhunt" but the fact that you can't see that I've been clearly communicating who I'm down to lynch all game, even if it isn't accompanied by a dissertation, just comes off as hella dense.

Gamma Emerald wrote:Top 4:
FrozenFlame: don't like their push on mpolo today, I find Zyth's logic for scumreading him solid.


lmao what push? I voted mpolo at the start based on a misconception I had about the LaserGuy/mpolo ability interaction last night. I kept the vote on for awhile to confirm/deny whether amrock had truly given me a double vote. Once he clarified that it would only work on PW, I just didn't unvote until I had a chance to re-read the thread a bit. And now that I have, I'm on you. I haven't seriously pushed for mpolo pretty much all day and the fact that this late in the phase you're characterizing me as such is suuuuuper grimey. It's like you just saw my vote was there and assumed I must be pushing him when there was clear context to explain the languishing vote

I saw you pushing his night action as scummy. Was that not the case?

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Gamma Emerald
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Gamma Emerald » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:54 pm UTC

Also I've cross-referenced the past game and know what I'm gonna try to look for in EGW's posts to try and sort them out


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