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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:35 am UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I thought about it, but I couldn't get a straight answer (or any answer) from YOLO about how my role would interact with her, so I wasn't really comfortable going ahead with it since most the cases involved me dying.

Reasonable to me.

--

Am I missing something regarding your role? I'm not sure why everyone assumes that you will likely be blown up with GLadOS. Based on Madge's answer from YOLO, I would think the opposite is true. I swore you also made a post with an answer from YOLO, but I can't find it.


No, YOLO gave me nothing. The interaction with Madge does make me suspect that you're right, but I wasn't able to get that information from my end.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:44 am UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote:I did see the spoiler. My 'weird' comment comes from a 'votes aren't toys' perspective. After RVS I consider every vote serious. It has also been made clear (trough Madge's claim and your sample roles early D1) that votes have mechanical powers in OS games. It also took you a while to move your vote. Instead of voting Spak after your case you joke voted yourself.
Satisfied with your answers to the other points, but wtf does it matter if that's your (wrong) perspective? I've shown time and time again that isn't mine. So I ask you again, how is it weird?
Well, I haven't really picked up on that. I scrolled through your posts just now scanning for your votes, every vote you placed looked serious. I didn't see you being frivolous with your vote until now.

I have seen you argue that votes arent just for lynching, they're a scum hunting tool, and I don't disagree with that. But this self vote doesn't fit that description.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Sabrar » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:52 am UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:-GLadOS kills whoever hammers her.
-Madge turns into tree stump if she hammers.
-Yolo confirmed with Madge that if she is the final Judgement vote on GladOS, she will turn into a tree stump.

-Therefore, Yolo is considering Madge being the final Judgement vote on GLadOS as a hammer.
-Therfore, we can assume that ANY person being the final Judgement vote on GLadOS is considered a hammerer, and that THAT person will be killed by the explosion.

Weird. That would be such a silly mechanic, it actually makes me doubt Madge's claim. Huh.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:53 am UTC

plytho wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote:I did see the spoiler. My 'weird' comment comes from a 'votes aren't toys' perspective. After RVS I consider every vote serious. It has also been made clear (trough Madge's claim and your sample roles early D1) that votes have mechanical powers in OS games. It also took you a while to move your vote. Instead of voting Spak after your case you joke voted yourself.
Satisfied with your answers to the other points, but wtf does it matter if that's your (wrong) perspective? I've shown time and time again that isn't mine. So I ask you again, how is it weird?
Well, I haven't really picked up on that. I scrolled through your posts just now scanning for your votes, every vote you placed looked serious. I didn't see you being frivolous with your vote until now.

I have seen you argue that votes arent just for lynching, they're a scum hunting tool, and I don't disagree with that. But this self vote doesn't fit that description.

From the fact that I've used my vote more freely than what you're traditionally used to, you can easily extrapolate to this situation. Even beside that: you really think that a joke vote post, 4 days before the deadline, with no one near L-1, is something that is note-worthy? A vote on themselves? In a post where they directly specify that it is a joke?


hahah


@Boom
@Boom
@Boom


Good night.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:21 am UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote: From the fact that I've used my vote more freely than what you're traditionally used to, you can easily extrapolate to this situation. Even beside that: you really think that a joke vote post, 4 days before the deadline, with no one near L-1, is something that is note-worthy? A vote on themselves? In a post where they directly specify that it is a joke?
I wouldn't think so if I didn't have this on my mind:
plytho wrote: It has also been made clear (trough Madge's claim and your sample roles early D1) that votes have mechanical powers in OS games.
This is is what made me go from 'Zen's joking around' to 'weird'.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:47 am UTC

plytho:

There's lots of things I don't care for in plytho's play. His case on Zyth is awful--mine wasn't great either, admittedly--but most of the points he's arguing here aren't even legitimately scummy. His tone in his reply to Zyth doesn't feel at all like he's buying any of Zyth's arguments here. Eventually he does back down, in a way that weirdly mirrors what I said about it. I don't know what to make of this last part at all.

plytho is pushing hard on Gamma for pretty much the entire game, but his case against him is pretty bad. As but one example, he proposes this idea that Maven was intending on shooting Gamma, entirely without justification, as part of a motivator for his later push on Gamma. What's weird about this is he never considers an obvious possibility for why Gamma is still around--Maven withheld. Particularly if Maven was one-shot, it's pretty unlikely that he was going to fire D1. He also doesn't know what to do with this post from Gamma. He's trying to figure out how to fit it into a scum read, but it's so odd that he can't make sense of it, and reads it as scummy anyway. Actually, plytho plays scum a lot like I do... tunnels hard, good at nitpicking, bad at making cases on people. I can see why BoomFrog read us the same.

His whole argument with bessie is very much in the tl;dr territory for me, which is pretty much exactly how I've seen plytho play scum his last two games. I agree with bessie that at this point this is just a timewaster for both of them.

I have basically no idea how he feels about any player other than Zyth or Gamma (including bessie, actually). This is in striking contrast to his town play, where he produced lots and lots of reads lists. In Diablo Mafia, he was producing two or three of these per game day. Dark Tower, where he was Town again, he had a very good one in D1 before being killed off. As mentioned in my earlier read of him, his D1 reads are pretty bad, with basically all lurkers as scum and no real scumreads otherwise. These aren't much better.

Interactions with certain other people I discussed in my main reads are also notable, and how those same people fit onto the current Gamma wagon. Scummy.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:55 am UTC

bessie wrote:WHAT THE FUCK DO YOU WANT FROM ME?

Listen, after the game hit me up. I will discuss statistics and game theory all day with you. I will talk your ear off. But too much of my D2 has been responding to the same points over and over again from you, and you’re keeping me from looking at anyone else. Or is that intentional? Are you worried I might actually have time to do a proper reads list? What will I find when I read jimbob?

Oh, and I’m not going to give you the answer you are fishing for. Vote me for it.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Madge » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:08 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:-GLadOS kills whoever hammers her.
-Madge turns into tree stump if she hammers.
-Yolo confirmed with Madge that if she is the final Judgement vote on GladOS, she will turn into a tree stump.

-Therefore, Yolo is considering Madge being the final Judgement vote on GLadOS as a hammer.
-Therfore, we can assume that ANY person being the final Judgement vote on GLadOS is considered a hammerer, and that THAT person will be killed by the explosion.

Weird. That would be such a silly mechanic, it actually makes me doubt Madge's claim. Huh.


To be crystal clear, I am not 100% that I tree stump if I'm the final judgement voter (if I said it was certain before, then I was mistaken: I've re-read my message right now and it is a little ambiguous. I've asked for clarification.)

I've been told that the hammer vote is considered to be the last vote in a "lynch sequence". The answer made no statement on whether a judgement vote was part of a "lynch sequence".

(I also asked whether GLADOS gets activated by the judgement votes, and I was told I can't ask questions about other players' abilities, and I asked whether mod-votes activate my power just in case, and of course they don't)
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:16 am UTC

plytho wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote: From the fact that I've used my vote more freely than what you're traditionally used to, you can easily extrapolate to this situation. Even beside that: you really think that a joke vote post, 4 days before the deadline, with no one near L-1, is something that is note-worthy? A vote on themselves? In a post where they directly specify that it is a joke?
I wouldn't think so if I didn't have this on my mind:
plytho wrote: It has also been made clear (trough Madge's claim and your sample roles early D1) that votes have mechanical powers in OS games.
This is is what made me go from 'Zen's joking around' to 'weird'.

Oh! I see. This is such a strange thought, but it makes sense. It makes me think that you yourself have some sort of vote manipulation. Not sure why you'd have this thought otherwise.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:22 am UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Burn in Fire:
EGW - I have not been able to follow his reads at all this game. I think this is just Ran not yet being able to fit things together due to the size of the game. His fake confidence in these reads may also just be the new play style he is trying. I'm not serious about him being this low. I'm just annoyed with him and find his constant prodding obnoxious, so I feel like trolling. I will say though that if there are two scum teams, I will have to genuinely reconsider Ran, cause those reads are seriously gross.


If you are annoyed with me, there's always the option of engaging with me, and talking with me about reads. You haven't been proactive in doing that with me all game. (You have been responsive to my requests, which I appreciate) You tried to get me on Jim, but it was a pretty weak case. I see you are still reading Jim as scum, can you go more into that read including his recent play + reads? Why did you post your case on Spak late D2 instead of early D2?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:31 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:Burn in Fire:
EGW - I have not been able to follow his reads at all this game. I think this is just Ran not yet being able to fit things together due to the size of the game. His fake confidence in these reads may also just be the new play style he is trying. I'm not serious about him being this low. I'm just annoyed with him and find his constant prodding obnoxious, so I feel like trolling. I will say though that if there are two scum teams, I will have to genuinely reconsider Ran, cause those reads are seriously gross.


If you are annoyed with me, there's always the option of engaging with me, and talking with me about reads. You haven't been proactive in doing that with me all game. (You have been responsive to my requests, which I appreciate) You tried to get me on Jim, but it was a pretty weak case. I see you are still reading Jim as scum, can you go more into that read including his recent play + reads? Why did you post your case on Spak late D2 instead of early D2?
Sure, I'll go into it later today. Time is the answer to your last question. I felt it was best to address the concerns with me and that took up time. You're just impatient.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:45 am UTC

I'm just curious because we had an extended night and I would have expected more of a case on Spak by then (since you voted Spak early D2 but didn't do much with it). Also talk to me about why you decided to post that you'd not post until day of deadline, and then came back before then.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby mpolo » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:54 am UTC

Argh! Everyone was on on Friday night! I have not yet read pages 37 to here, but wanted to at least check in, mostly working from memory -- don't feel offended if I have no read about you!:

Gamma Emerald started off looking fairly scummy, but has improved with time. Also, several people who are scummier than him are pushing for a lynch.

Spak posts infrequently enough that I simply don't have a real feeling about him.

#HBC|Zyth started out looking fairly townie, but now I've had a lot of disagreements with them -- enough that I have a fairly scummy feeling about them.

plytho is one that I go back and forth on my read.

EGW and Sabrar I am reading as solidly town. LaserGuy almost as much so.

Madge is probably townie saddled with a poor power.

Bessie generally feels townie.

Znirk has not posted a whole lot.

Peaceful Whale feels like newbie town to me. And has RL reasons to not post much now.

Red Ryu seems to have improved somewhat with time, though the early scummy feeling still sticks to him somewhat.

jimbobmacdoodle I don't feel like I am getting much of a feeling for, even though he posts, they get buried under the mass of the others for me.

I'm going to try to get another hour or so for this this afternoon to come up with a better "bottom four".
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:57 am UTC

LaserGuy:

How am I underestimating the number of scum? You say most inactives are town. I don't know how much scum there are in a game this large, and I don't expect them all to be scum. (I'm thinking 4-5 left over after Moody being dead) It can vary from team to team. (Last game, scum were all active with me, including Gamma and Amrock) (Sometimes it can be totally lurky, like Zen + Soup + some other guy I don't remember in Doctor Who Mafia) You state that Znirk always lurks like this, but you include Frozen Flame as more likely scum then him, when I tell you that Frozen Flame plays like this as usual and has played like that in the previous game (where He and I were town). I don't strongly scum-read Znirk, I mean that I feel he is lurking scum from the little content he has given. He's in my pile because he is the lurker I am most comfortable offing out of the others, and today is a good day to consider offing a lurker that is possibly scum. It is even more important to focus on a lurker-scum considering our Vigilante has been killed at night, so (in my eyes) we only have the option of lynching them. He has content that is readable, he has voted. My problem with your predecessor is that he (Dark Horse) has lurked in a similar way as I replaced in for him, when things were bleak. It is indeed poor sportmanship but he has done it before, and he has viewed. You state that Znirk's content is null, but you don't talk about my point that his entrance post seems good but the rest doesn't seem like that, which means he was doing so to seem town, rather then use it to develop his own conclusions. What do you think of this:

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Vote: Znirk


On Zen's spak case: It looks good. Good case a little too late, though. I would have expected this Day 1 when he was pushing Jimbob, or even voting Spak early D2. I put Spak to null because I was considering he may have needed more time (due to IRL johns) and I wanted to give him a chance to read him better. I originally said that I did not see Zen's point early on since with him I'd need time to consider him in terms of the big picture. Yet that is not the case, he's abused the time he was given. [By viewing the thread and not posting] I don't think he looks townie, but I think him taking so long to get into the thread by now seems deliberate/tactical.

On Peaceful Whale: No, I didn't read that game and I have no conclusions from it. Why do you ask? Can you link me? I also want you to go more into what I said on Peace Whale. Peaceful Whale isn't newbie town. Plus you have noted yourself that he has fallen off D1 in your entrance post. So if you are going to assert that, you are going to have to talk it out with me.

Sure, fair enough. I think it's also given that if you have a problem with someone reads wise, then you should be specific about it, which is why I asked you to do this. I also think it's weak that you simply scumlean me for disagreement on reads, when you have neglected to comment on my actions alongside those reads. You also have neglected to talk about the Moody wagon. If you want to read me (Or anyone really), you'll have to take in the whole picture.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:58 am UTC

Laserguy:

--- Gamma
Spoiler:
Gamma Emerald wrote:substantiated reads he gave early day 1 but I opted to try to explain why he was town using what I considered to be more solid logic.
PEdit: oh LaserGuy found the original post. Goddammit Bessie WHY DO YOU HAVE TO MAKE EVERY THING CONFU RGSLBDS;OVNBMKLZGNFJVBSK V,'ANV'BKTDGNVGZVNXB AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA


Gamma Emerald wrote:Vote FrozenFlame
I feel after Zyth's case for himself being town this is probably scum, because it pointed out FF's post trying to mobilize votes towards me in a weird way.



Gamma Emerald wrote:
plytho wrote:I’m worried about this statement from Gamma:
Gamma Emerald wrote:Yeah, with a vigilante, only one kill seems to be disproving a multiple team theory.
considering he was the likely vig target of maven. I don't think the presence of a vig influences the likeliness of two scum kills.

Gamma Emerald wrote:Also going to state Sabrar and PW have entered my townreads. I have 7 so far. My personal guess for amount of scum is 5-6, leaning towards 5, so these townreads could eventually help develop a rudimentary PoE for me to use.
Who are the other 5 and what does PoE mean? (I'm aware of Path of Exile and Power over Ethernet but they don't fit the context.)
Think about how fast numbers could go down. If the vig misfires and no crossteam kills occur, as well as no repeated kills, that 4 dead in the night (vig sgot + vig plus scum A kill + scum B kill). Also, what does me being the target have to do with anything?
PoE is process of elimination, it's a method of removing towny people and lynching people outside that pool. It's like the Clue board game. As for my other five they at this point were Madge, mpolo, Bessie, laserguy, and Znirk.


Gamma Emerald wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:Yet you only started doing so after being wagoned. Tell me, why didn't you have this motivation in D1, or early D2?

Day 1: no time
Day 2: was doing other things with my time. I was trying to play a game on mafia universe and those are tough to keep up with, so please excuse me for slacking elsewhere. Also I started feeling like I actually cared about the game more recently. I meant it when I said my tryhard mode activated.


Gamma Emerald wrote:
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:
Gamma Emerald wrote:LOL sorry Amrock but apparently the mod told you NOTHING. That's RAW. When I replaced into FWiaB Boonskiies told me what Geralt of Rivia claimed. So maybe I have different expectations but I still feel you got a raw deal.


Do you have a read list like EGW asked for earlier?

I already said that wasn't likely. Also you seem to not be addressing my point for Znirk being town AT ALL. I've got my eyes on you, pal.

Put simply, he Omgus votes FrozenFlame, which shows he is playing reactively and not proactively. He states he has more motivation to play his other games then here, and doesn't show intent to find scum, but rather intent to survive. His only contribution beforehand was his town pool [Sabrar PW Madge Mpolo Bessie Laserguy Znirk] which is an easy thing to state regardless of alignment. Most importantly his reaction to Bessie is telling, because he was scolding Ryu for not addressing his point for Znirk being town at all, yet he did not bring the quote I asked about. (While you say he is being coy, and you provide it for me, which I appreciate) Then when he looks, he realizes he may have been wrong, but he was being confident towards Ryu with what he thought he knew of that quote, without thoroughly reading it. Which is why I feel his reaction to Bessie is forced, he's doing it to make it seem like he believes it is her fault for his mistake, when it was his own. It reminds me of scum!Soup when he makes a similar mistake, but becomes dramatic to draw away attention from his scum slipping.

I think Ryu has more of a point on Gamma then Gamma has on any of his scumreads. I feel this hits the nail on Gamma's coffin in a very succint manner:

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:Do you have anything other than weak votes and self preservation as top priority over trying to help find scum?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:00 am UTC

Let’s start with my top 3 suspicious wagoneers (repeated bits from my previous post in italics):

Red Ryu: Claims not to care about neither moody nor jimbob, but he’s the only one (other than moody) still voting jimbob at days end. Despite saying he’d be around to switch. Really not looking good. @Red Ryu: why weren’t you around to switch to moody after saying you would be? These two posts look weird. He goes from
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:I'm aware of the mod confirmation earlier on the bomb role. We can't force someone, wish we could or at least someone who is willing to at somepoint.
to
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:Would still like Sir or Madge to die though, can we pretty please just switch to the indies?
This doesn’t look consistent. Other than that I’m not finding anything scummy in Red Ryu’s posts and I like a lot of the points he makes. I’m going to keep him as a scum lean though because of the end of D1.

[Moving Red Ryu to neutral-town lean. I misunderstood his post as him being around all day to switch.]


Spak:Spak: doesn’t vote moody when he can. Moves vote from BoomFrog to Madge after being caught up late at that point moody is at 9 votes. States that he wants to have a FAIR vote down by deadline. To me this feels like dodging the vote. Even if you’re not caught up you could put down a temporary vote of at least an opinion on the four lynch targets based on what you’ve read so far. Spak doesn’t do that and waits until the last minute to not vote moody. Upon reading again I see that he said he’d hammer moody if necessary. Hmm, Spak is looking pretty similar to Red Ryu. Suspicious behaviour around the lynch but some decent posts outside of it. Only one post D2 though. I could see Spak being lurker scum coasting on a limited amount of decent posts. [As Zen pointed out, Spak’s posts don’t look like scumhunting] The fact that he showed up and didn’t post isn’t helping Spak. Would lynch.

Gamma Emerald:Similar to Spak: he shows up late and votes jimbob long after that wagon is dead (moody gives up around this point). Red Ryu makes a good point about gamma’s vote on Frozen here.

Gamma Emerald wrote:Issue: you made a PLAN to seem town. My play today is riddled with mistakes. If I were to make a PLAN to seem town I would work to avoid those.

I agree that you’re making a lot of mistakes.

Spoiler:
Gamma Emerald wrote:LaserGuy: I feel his role and how he used it is pretty towny.

That’s my point. Do you have other things on laserGuy.

Gamma Emerald wrote:plytho: He seems to be pushing a single viewpoint with no desire to reconsider.
I have pushed loads of viewpoints and reconsidered a bunch of them.
Gamma Emerald wrote:
Zyth: got the moody wagon moving
nope

Gamma Emerald wrote:
plytho wrote:
Gamma Emerald wrote:Vote FrozenFlame
I feel after Zyth's case for himself being town this is probably scum, because it pointed out FF's post trying to mobilize votes towards me in a weird way.
Can you explain why exactly this makes Frozenflame scum?

Because his timing was explicitly mentioned as a turning point.
So you’re just using Zen’s interpretation of the situation? Did you check to see what was actually happening?

Gamma Emerald wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:
Gamma Emerald wrote:Also let me note this is two fucking days in a row I'm getting wagoned. Let me ask this: WHAT THE FUCK DO YOU THINK MY PARTNERS ARE DOING?


Your partners actions have nothing to do with this wagon. The real question is what are you doing?

They have everything to do with the wagon you dolt! Tell me, do you really think I get wagoned TWICE without some scum interference? Do you think scum would just bus me haphazardly? Because I would REAM THEM!!!! In my first forum mafia game I got pissed because I didn't see the reason one of our buddies was being bussed when we could have pushed a townie instead. I DESPISE pointless bussing. What happened to me in Penguin Mafia Redux I was fine with because IT WAS UNDER OUR CONTROL.

You seem to be emphasising the fact that you were wagoned twice without interference but D1 alternative wagons to yours took off. The three people on your wagon were probably not bussing you.
Gamma Emerald wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:Yet you only started doing so after being wagoned. Tell me, why didn't you have this motivation in D1, or early D2?

Day 1: no time
Day 2: was doing other things with my time. I was trying to play a game on mafia universe and those are tough to keep up with, so please excuse me for slacking elsewhere. Also I started feeling like I actually cared about the game more recently. I meant it when I said my tryhard mode activated.
You had no time to work on your town game D1 and you’re surprised people were voting you?

This "I'm being wagoned twice withour scum interference" defense doesn't make any sense. Your D1 play was weak but your wagon barely got started. Oh me yarm how could your scum mates let 3 people vote for you??, clearly there was no interference. I feel like your trying to put this false idea in our heads. The competing wagons D1 were moody vs jimbob. That's where your mates were (or voting off wagon).

If it had been you vs moody D1 and moody flipped scum, a new wagon on you today would look very suspicious. But that is not at all what happened, so stop pretending it is.

Gamma Emerald wrote: These wagons on me are dirty..
You know the D1 wagon on you was lead by our confirmed townie right? Are you calling him dirty.
The "I wouldn't make these mistakes as scum" defense is weak, as is the "I'm being wagoned twice defense". Still my top scum read.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:07 am UTC

@LaserGuy: I'm looking at your reads post and you do not mention moody at all. Do you think his flip isn't relevant?
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:40 am UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Oh! I see. This is such a strange thought, but it makes sense. It makes me think that you yourself have some sort of vote manipulation. Not sure why you'd have this thought otherwise.
Shouldn't you be sleeping instead of rolefishing?
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:26 am UTC

LaserGuy: The one thing that stands out to me about LaserGuy is his confidence. He seems to make up his mind based on a couple of points and then build his entire view around that. He did that when he came in, being very confident about his two scum team theory and the people on both teams. He does it again with his reads. His trust in his own reads is so great that he doesn’t need to read everyone individually. He uses his own reads as a basis for calling Gamma townie (too many scum want to lynch him), EGW scummy (he wants to lynch townies) and FrozenFlame scummy (scum seems to defend him). This is a big difference between LaserGuy and me. When I made my bottom 4 yesterday I expected one, maybe two of them to flip scum by the end of the game. When LaserGuy makes a bottom 4 I think he expects all 4 to flip scum. I am impressed by this confidence and I think it takes a townie mind to be that confident in your own reads.

I am assuming that at least a couple of LaserGuy’s reads are wrong (and I know one is obv). I don’t think scum!LaserGuy would have as much conviction pushing a read they know is wrong because they know it might come back to bite them in the ass. Town!LaserGuy doesn’t know his read is wrong instead he’s convinced it’s right and not afraid to say so.

On top of that, I’ve pointed out earlier that using his power early is a town-tell. As is his willingness to hammer.

I think he’s wrong about a lot of his reads though, he should pay attention to the moody lynch and reevaluate his reads. He’s very probably town.

Important note for future days:
If Zen is scum, LaserGuy is town.
If LaserGuy is scum, Zen is town.
There's no way they'd use this power if they're both scum.

LaserGuy wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Damn, this is such a bad wagon. Interesting though. Apparently I may have been wrong about there being two scumteams.


I thought you were going to talk reads this evening. You are going to have to say why you believe it is a bad wagon. Be more specific.


I'm working on it.
Please also explain why this wagon implies one scum team. LaserGuy, I think you’ve tunneled too far into this.

LaserGuy wrote:About me, I find the comment about my reads being lazy a bit baffling. This is a huge game with many players. I don't have infinite time or energy to play mafia, so I am happy to use simple heuristics, meta reads, or process of elimination to reach conclusions about players that haven't given me a strong impression one way or the other.

The problematic ‘lazy’ read is the Gamma one.

LaserGuy wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@LaserGuy: apologies, can't spare the time for him when I'm pretty sure he's going to die anyway.

Do I get townie points for pointing out how lazy this is? plytho was just slinging mud at me because he really didn't like this post.

There’s a difference between Sabrar not reading you because he expects your flip to reveal your alignment and you calling Gamma townie because some of your scum reads think he’s scum. It almost looks like you’ve gone to reading people as scum for being on the Gamma wagon. Get out of your tunnel and check moody’s flip.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby plytho » Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:07 pm UTC

A couple of short, easy ones:

Znirk, h_a, PW: These will be replaced/modkilled, if not we’ll have to lynch them, Znirk first, then h_a, then PW.

Sabrar, EGW: townie for their role in the moody lynch

Amrock: judgement

Madge: harmless, we can’t get the votes for madge with three inactives. I’d like to see her contribute more though. Madge, if I beat you to the wagon analysis D3 I’ll become suspicious of you.

Mpolo: I’m not entirely sure I like what I see from mpolo. Like moody he doesn’t seem to be asking questions. His power was confirmed and used plausibly. His reads list seems vague and non-committal. Neutral-scummy, potentially indie.

That leaves these 5 in rough order from town to scum. Apologies, ran out of time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsczUFjhFWEI

I'll try to quickly put a gut read on them so you see where I'm at.

jimbobmacdoodle: pretty sure he's town, he was in a good position on the moody wagon and the alternative to scum. I've also liked a lot of what he posted.
BoomFrog: Was also in a good spot on the wagon and I did a read on him earlier (on EGW's request) that got me leaning town on him
Bessie: I have no read on bessie. I think my OMGUS has receded now but I will really need to read her properly. She's going to be my next read but I won't be home for at least 8 hours. I'll try to do some phone reading in between.
Frozenflame: He's been saying stuff I liked but his position on the wagon isn't in his favor
#HBC | Zyth: This may be me tunneling on the moody-Gamma-Zen theory (pushed by FF) but despite a decent defense I'm not entirely convinced about Zen's motives D1
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:12 pm UTC

Today's todo list: Complete rereads; respond to Gamma and Zyth; create ordered town to scum list.

Responses first:

First things first, Gamma never responded to my follow up here to his responses to my read. He doesn't even acknowledge it. Strikes me that he hasn't got valid arguments against the points I'm making. As EGW pointed out, his double wagon comment is hardly worth it's salt. Until I saw EGW's comment, I was tempted to look back at the D1 GE wagon, but honestly, I don't see a huge amount of point at this time. It strikes me as an attempt at a desperate appeal to emotion rather than logic. To respond to this quote:
Gamma Emerald wrote:They have everything to do with the wagon you dolt! Tell me, do you really think I get wagoned TWICE without some scum interference? Do you think scum would just bus me haphazardly?
As EGW pointed out, you weren't one of the two main wagons on D1. The counter-wagon on moody was on me, and was led by somebody I consider a potential scum buddy of both you and moody (see also my earlier question as to why Zyth was worried about the wagon switching to GE late on D1). If that's not interfering with the wagon, I don't know what is.

Hmmm... side thought - maybe worth looking for interactions between Gamma and Zyth?

@Zyth - I acknowledge that there are plenty of townie points in your play - indeed, I was gut reading you as town until the moody flip. However, none of them struck me as "scum would never do this" points, and there are plenty of things that make me suspicious of you. Thank you for your responses though (but you've been choosy about which questions you responded to this game). It's your willingness to engage that makes me want to lynch Gamma over you, as I still have doubts in my read on you.
#HBC | Zyth wrote:It's dishonest to describe this as a "decision to wait until D2" as it's simply the consequence of temporal law: D2 follows from the end of D1. Unless you think I have a night speak ability, your wording here is rather disingenuous.
Hardly - you could have easily brought this up in the tail end of D1, including when you actually switched to voting moody. I'm also not sure I buy your explanation as to why you were scared of a switch to Gamma. I'm fairly confident that scum wouldn't risk forcing a No Lynch, since it would be fairly clear which people were jumping and sitting on the new wagon instead of the already larger other wagon(s). My theory is that you were scared because a Gamma lynch would be worse for your scum team than a moody one, maybe because Gamma's ability is more powerful? Of course, you could also be making the reasoning up entirely.

Next up: I need to re-read EGW. I feel like he makes several good points and cases, which are heavily influencing my reads of both Zyth and Gamma, and I want to make sure I'm not being played.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Madge » Sat Sep 23, 2017 1:41 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Madge: harmless, we can’t get the votes for madge with three inactives. I’d like to see her contribute more though. Madge, if I beat you to the wagon analysis D3 I’ll become suspicious of you.


Save yourself the wait and become suspicious of me now because you probably will beat me to it because I probably won't bother with it until/unless I both have time to devote to it (unlikely in a game this fast) and/or feel like it's the one missing piece that will let everything make sense. If I do a wagon analysis I get the feeling I'll waste like 2 hours of my life and not feel any closer to answers.

Anyway about to go bed but thought I'd check in on the thread so that way tomorrow morning I have slightly less to read.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Sep 23, 2017 1:59 pm UTC

Evil George Washington: I've not done a comprehensive read of him all game. My only reads have been one very early skim of him (when I disliked a few bits of, and subsequently got flak for), and then my general gut feelings throughout the game, which have labelled him as town for making good points, and generating discussion. Now to do a more detailed read. Hopefully it won't take me as long as my Zyth one :?

In retrospect, I realised that my very early dislike was just due to a play style difference, and I fully deserved what flak I got for it. His vote (and apparent certainty with it) on Sabrar isn't how I use my votes (and there's no way I'd be that certain within the first 24 hours of a game), but I guess that doesn't make it wrong. Of course, the same can be said about why EGW voted for Sabrar in the first place - half of it at least was because Sabrar called PW scummy, but didn't vote for him, which is just the difference in play style. Since this is an early misunderstanding, I think it should be ignored.

I do like how he asks lots of questions, trying to draw out content from a range of players. Of note however, is that while he calls for reads from some players, aside from his vote, he doesn't actually post many of his own in the early game. One read he does give (at the request of Zyth), was of moody, long before any real pressure had mounted on moody, but it was relatively neutral. Eventually, his full reads list turns up, and it is pretty decent (in a smaller game, I might complain about the number of nulls, and the proportionately small number of scum candidates, but not when there are 20 players to keep track of). He's wrong about me, but I accept how my play up to then could look bad (an effect of me being too busy to play properly). He makes an interesting point about moody, labelling him clearly as scum, so definite town points there. The point he makes isn't an obvious one, at least to me, so there was no desperate benefit for a scum-buddy to bring it up, and definitely not enough to make him need to bus moody.

@EGW - I'm not quite sure I follow the purpose of this post about Gamma flying under the radar. Could you please clarify what your point was with it?

As D1 progressed, his comments with reads become a bit more frequent, which is good. He votes fairly early on moody, and is the one who brings up the bottom four suggestion to try to find a consensus amongst town, both of which bring him solid town points. He gives a reasonable reason for the timing of his switch to Dark Horse, although I don't recall seeing why he wanted to lynch him specifically. However, he switches back to moody still before the moody wagon had really got running fully, so more town points. The final stages of the day are constantly looking for players to join in voting on various other players. This strikes me as serving a positive role, overall (trying to get consensus, whilst simultaneously seeing who is willing to follow through on specific players). Negative point is when he switches to me (since it's a vote on a confirmed townie FMPOV), but switches back with Sabrar shortly afterwards (aside - this is really the start of the breakdown of the wagon on me, not the time when Zyth switched, although that might also have been important in making sure players were on the moody wagon).

Onto D2, and he opens with his BoomFrog case. I'm not sure I necessarily see the case as all that strong, but it's not incredibly weak or anything.

@EGW - what are your thoughts on BoomFrog's reactions to the moody wagon in the latter stages of D1? I see your explanation here, but he definitely tries to rally town round to lynching moody, in my opinion, plus he tries to stop moody self-lynching before the Madge half-wagon is fully organised, which I don't see a scum-buddy doing. How do you explain that?

It was EGW who pointed out that Zen doesn't like to bus, which was what had me initially doubting my scum lean on Zen. Claims self-protection ability of some kind, which might explain there being only one kill last night. I don't see why scum would have claimed this given the context (scum presumably wouldn't want town to know that they have ways to avoid investigative results for example). Aside from this and his comments on BoomFrog, much of the rest of early D2 feel exactly the same as early D1 - lots of questions, relatively few thoughts on others. His vote switch to Znirk comes a bit out of the blue, without any justification, either before or after from what I saw, so I find this a bit weird. He backs down on Madge after Sabrar's point, so is open to listening to people.

When his reads list comes around, I'm surprised to see that it has only 4 town-related leans, and a whole load of nulls. However, on request, he posts an ordered list, so he has got some rough idea of who he finds scummier in that pile of nulls. Otherwise, his reads seem solid overall (in that his town and scum reads have good reasoning), and for the most part, match my overall view of things. I like that he clarified the whole Zyth asking for moody read thing, even though it goes slightly against my case against Zyth.

Conclusion: I'm pretty confident that EGW is Town. He's trying to generate too much content, asking a wide range of people questions and trying to get them to contribute. I like his points on Gamma and Zyth, and most of his reads match up with my own. I don't feel like he's scum playing me at all.

Lunch time. After lunch will come reads of bessie, Red Ryu, Peaceful Whale, and LaserGuy, and an ordered list.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:05 pm UTC

Also, thought I'd just mention that this is now the fourth largest thread in this subforum, after Gojoe, the sign-up thread, and one Mafia game with 40 pages, 31 players, and 8 days. And D2's not even over!!!
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby mpolo » Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:11 pm UTC

My notes from reading:

Spoiler:
Starting p. 37:

EGW: Finding it hard to read Frozen Flame and Spak. LaserGuy should not disagree on Zen. Wants LG to comment on reads. LaserGuy has a weak scumread on Red Ryu. Must engage others. Gamma only started recently with trying to generate content. Doesn't look good that 1st priority is survival. How am I underestimating number of scum? Zen's Spak case is good, but late. Gamma is guilty of OMGUS.

FrozenFlame: Explains a confusion RE: night actions.

Gamma Emerald: EGW is making well-reasoned pushes. Votes Red Ryu. No read on FrozenFlame. Why does Frozen find Gamma scummy. Wants to dayvig Jimbob? By the time he voted moody, moody had outed himself, no case was necessary. Votes plytho "better shot at getting a lynch". Why aren't scum helping me: because I'm not scum! Dislikes pointless bussing and wouldn't let teammates get away with it. Has been examining old games for meta. Wagon is dirty. Obviously I have not "plan" because of mistakes. PW also made mistakes that teammates would have helped with in chat.

LaserGuy: FrozenFlame seems content to stop scumhunting and just lynch lurkers. Does not like Gamma's wagon, may only be one scumteam. Analysis of EGWs reads: Znirk seems to be more absent than scummily lurking. Disagrees with gamma read. Gamma is unorthodox, but town. Plytho's cases on Zyth and Gamma are relatively poor. He has few opinions.

jimbobmacdoodle: Finds Zyth vague about who is scum. Comments on his defense. Zyth avoiding some questions. Not happy with all resonses. Breadcrumb is weak. Case against Spak is decent. Late D1 GE was a better scumread than moody, esp. with Maven's case. Seems to try to avoid the moody wagon until no case is necessary. Vacuous D2 content. H_A is presumably away IRL. Znirk is very low content due to RL, but still aloof on commenting on moody. Spak seems to be sincerely trying to catch up. Annoyed with GE comments. Asks me for fuller reads. Wants to reread EGW. Gamma hasn't responded to request to reads. Zyth was "gut" town until moody flip. Plenty of suspicious posts.

Sabrar: Scum is Zyth (though makes good case against Spak). GE hasn't done anything townie. Plytho may be anti-town indie. Znirk: soft defense of moody early, later somewhat decisive vote. Spak: active lurking, unwilling to reconsider opinions. Plytho: some sort of indie-scum. PW still scummy. Madge is town, LG is going to die anyway. Some doubt of Madge's claim, because it would be weird to have a "hammerer" on the Judgment.

Zyth: Explains Spak reasoning. At one point, Spak and Ryu might have been masons, but this was disproven. Spak still looks scummy. plytho has some scummy posts (including a near quote of LaserGuy). Missed the "joke" spoiler? Madge can safely (except TreeStump) hammer the bomb. Ryu improving. Never had town read on moody (was 4th choice near day end). Frozen was other scumread, now depending on jimbob's flip. Annoyed with EGW. Scum: mpolo, one of plytho/bessie, jimbob, Spak, Amrock, moody. Why does LG think he's going to die. Convinced that the last voter will die to GladOS.

bessie: Exasperated with plytho's line of argument (how to deal with PWs soft claim)

Madge: Bad list: {frozen flame, spak, red ryu, gamma emerald} Clarifies situation with Judgment (the mod's wording is ambiguous)

Ryu: (technically quote from earlier) GE has weak votes and self-preservation.

plytho: admits misconstruing Gamma. Explains reason for near-quote of LG. Considers all votes serious after RVS. Ryu wasn't around to switch to moody at dayend. Push on indies. town-lean. Spak showed up and didn't post, not really scumhunting. Gamma is giving weak defenses and poor play. Accuses Zen of rolefishing. If one of Zen and LaserGuy is scum, the other is town. jimbob looking good as alternative to a scum lynch. BoomFrog leaning town.


There are a couple of people who posted nothing in those three pages (Red Ryu, Spak, heuristically_alone, PW (for RL reasons).

Town
EGW (I would have expected a slip by now with the active leading of the town.)
Sabrar (Also very active in prodding and asking)
LaserGuy (Came out of the gates very strong, and seems to be thoughtful and helpful. May die anyway. Power seems really weird as a scum power, though that's no guarantee…)

Neutral
Madge (Leaning town, but not terribly useful to town except as a voter.)
bessie (Leaning town, however almost certainly cross-aligned with plytho.)
Peaceful Whale (Prob. town)
FrozenFlame (Not enough content)
jimbobmacdoodle (The posts here are not giving me the same vaguely scummy feeling as before. Some helpful analysis.)
Red Ryu (Some scum lean from early content. I have liked some of the stuff in D2, though. No recent posts.)
plytho (Leaning scum: I liked some of his posts, but the general scummy vibe is not yet shaken. Cross-aligned with bessie.)


Scummy
GammaEmerald (I see him very concentrated on survival more than on "how can I help town". However, some of the exasperation at being "misread" felt real, which weakens my read a little. May just be an indie survivor, actually.)
#HBC | Zyth (Because I started with a townie read here, I keep wanting to exonerate him, and some of the points are more game philosophy. However, the behavior at the end of D1 and beginning of D2 keeps him here in the scum-pot. There also seems to be a lot of very certain ideas about how certain mechanisms will work, which don't seem very founded -- they may be right, but we have no way of knowing.)

RE: Judgment -- If people want me to be last, I can do that.

Unjudgment Vote: Amrock
Judgment Vote: Amrock

If people don't want me to be the last vote, there is plenty of time to change it.

Vote: #HBC|Zyth

Currently OK with Gamma Emerald, Red Ryu and plytho as lynch targets.

Ninjaed by jimbob wall. (Have not yet read it.)
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Sabrar » Sat Sep 23, 2017 4:56 pm UTC

Gamma Emerald wrote:PEdit: Sabrar I'm going to urge you to think about how PW broke the rules so many times. I feel if he were scum he would have been told to reign it in.
He was told many times both previously and in this game.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:09 pm UTC

bessie: I've not really spent any time thinking about bessie all game, so this re-read is definitely needed. I'm spoilering my detailed bits below to try to avoid death by wall, but it includes most of my thought process and points.
Spoiler:
Her opening post is pretty typical of bessie, being helpful where needed, while also asking pointed questions (e.g. townie declaration by Zen). Her subsequent suspicions of me are justified, based on my failure to properly explain why I found it bad, due to my limited time. She engages early with moody, in a way that doesn't seem forced, so it doesn't look like she's a scum-buddy with him, which mitigates her later read saying that she didn't want to lynch him. Her subsequent posts all continue in the same vein. There really is nothing that signifies to me scum bessie in it. On her points regarding Peaceful Whale and recycling reads - even without his later statement that this was effectively he was doing, I was pretty confident that's exactly what he was doing, but I don't necessarily see it as a scum tell from a new player (experienced players on the other hand would definitely only be doing it because they can't be bothered to make their own reads). Her reads list strikes me as genuinely attempting to collate thoughts with relatively little time, given the scale of the game (I know how it feels), and I don't see scum spending quite so much time on such a list. Aside from the aforementioned point on moody, I don't have any real gripes with what she said in that list.

At the time of reading it, I felt on bessie's side when the argument between her and plytho over Peaceful Whale's claim initially started. Nothing really has changed there. I feel like her subsequent reaction to plytho is over-the-top, but that's not all that unusual from bessie, if I recall correctly. However, she doesn't allow that discussion to completely dominate her attention, as she continues to interact and prod various other players. On request, she provides a detailed analysis of moody, but it boils down to neutral, which again doesn't look too great given moody's flip. The fact that she's voting for me at this point I'm going to consider a null point, because she had valid arguments to do so. Eventually she ends up being one of the last votes on moody, but this is null, since by that point, the lynch was essentially guaranteed. D1 summary - I don't like her standing off moody particularly, given his flip, but some of her early comments look to me like they wouldn't come from his scum buddy, so I don't think they're signs of her being scum with moody. Everything else looks normal, townie bessie, although I honestly don't remember what scum!bessie looks like (I think the only game I was involved in with scum bessie was as mod in WoT1).

In her D2 content, I see a hint of over-tunnelling on plytho. I know bessie likes to tunnel, so this isn't a scum-tell either. However, she seems to be ignoring plytho's other content in favour of her side of a disagreement over strategy. I don't see this argument as being town vs scum definitively, unlike one or two others (it could be, but I could easily see it being town vs town). Her explanations to LaserGuy and others sound good, although I don't really understand why she questions LaserGuy about his belief that Peaceful Whale should claim who is town, given that he admitted already that he had this information. Everything else D2 seems pretty standard, and nothing stood out to me, although my concentration's not so great today.


@bessie - I would appreciate your updated reads on people other than plytho, as and when you get round to them.

Conclusion: bessie is probably town. There's been little to suggest otherwise, apart from a neutral read of moody, which is hardly definitive.

Peaceful Whale: Doing this one next as it should be quick and I need to take a break to recharge after I've done it.
Spoiler:
His first few posts are empty-nothingness talking about how he is a noob. He seems to recognise that Zyth's vote on him is just a pressure vote, and essentially ignores it. I already made my thoughts clear on the "reads list" (i.e. it was clearly a joke, and it wasn't clear whether he made it because he's playing to his scum meta, or his generic-how-he-always-plays meta). The general feeling I get from the posts following that is that he wants to help but doesn't have a clue how to (see his reads post, for example, much of which was just a summary of other people's reads). His read of moody doesn't look good in light of moody's flip. If I'm right about Gamma, then the same goes there. Reading through his D1 and D2, I think I have an idea about his role and N1 target, although it's hardly concrete.

Conclusion: There's not really all that much in PW's content. I don't like that he's had town reads on moody and Gamma, but I've also seen plenty of things that suggest to me that he wants to help, he just doesn't know how. I have a guess as to what his role is, and what he did N1, including his result, based on what I've read (and I expect others have too), although I'm not certain about it. I'm not sure that it's worth spelling out at this point though, unless people want me to. I think he might be town, but if Gamma flips scum, I'm definitely throwing him into the scum pile.

@Peaceful Whale - Don't worry about the game, RL comes first.

Amrock: This isn't actually a read, but I thought I'd mention that I'd support Amrock being allowed to zombie replace, if he wants to, assuming that there's nothing further in his role that town doesn't know about, that's important.

Time for a break, and then onto Red Ryu, Laser Guy, and an ordered list.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Sabrar » Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:30 pm UTC

@Gamma Emerald: his vote on FF looks very strange, using a single comment from another player for justification. Corrects himself multiple times because he misread/didn't read some content. I'm not seeing the big scum-hunting that he claims to be doing, town hunting is easy. Here he mentions that FF is in his top4 because Zen scumread him. However there is no indication of this in Zen's posts either before GE made this statement or after.

And once more relating to Zen rather than GE: Zen does not call him out on the above. She has him as a liability lynch here, later town-reads him without explanation.

Conclusion: GE is scummy and feeling better about my read on Zen as well.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Sabrar » Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:59 pm UTC

@FrozenFlame: Provides little explanation for his list, given that his analysis post comes only a day later. Spends a lot of time analyzing D1 instead of D2. His tone looks okay, his content not. I would expect a lot more from such an experienced player. Scum-lean until he provides original reads based on current content.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby bessie » Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:20 pm UTC

Continuing p 37.

Evil George Washington wrote:
bessie wrote:I have an early meeting tomorrow. I’ll be working on my updated reads tomorrow night and Saturday.

I'll hold you to that, I hope the meeting went well.
Yes, hold me to it! I have a few things to do today so I will be working on this in pieces throughout the day. And the meeting went…well, it went (if anyone knows what RCCA means you know my pain)!

Evil George Washington wrote:
bessie wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:Peaceful Whale - I think Peace Whale is putting his foot in his mouth far too many times to be a strong candidate for mafia. He also seems eager and aloof, while being playful. I think this supports the thought that he is newbie town with no hidden motives. Same as before. Bessie mentions that he may be trying to pretend to be a noob and a certain detail seemed convincing but I'd need more to reconsider.
This is a reasonable point. Also, I would think that if he is mafia, his team would be coaching him more in Daychat. Unless the rest of the scum team is absent, and he’s trying to do this on his own.

This post. If it didn't convince you to change your read, how did it affect your read on Peaceful Whale? Tell me the thought progression. (Scum > Scum lean etc) What do you think of his D2 play so far?
Noting for later. I will work on this today.

Madge wrote:Long weekend this weekend so expect less activity than usual from me.
So don’t expect the usual twelve wall-of-text posts you usually make every RL day?

Madge wrote: I love pissed off Bessie.
You should have been in my office yesterday when I found out the inspection department converted a drawing from mm to inches and got it wrong. :evil:

Sabrar wrote:@plytho: I think plytho pushed himself into a corner when he started an argument with bessie but couldn't wrap it up in time so it became excessive. As mentioned this is eerily similar to Traitor!plytho Fridge while he did no such thing as Town in Diablo. I bet he doesn't have buddies but is scum in some form, that's why he's able to scum-hunt in what looks like a natural way, engaging all players. His content is mostly good but I expect nothing less from him.
These are also my current thoughts. I had a scum lean D1 plytho. One thing that I thought was odd was that I thought he was being too cautious in going after me D1, because he didn’t want to go up against my meta. But I think he got sucked in a little too far on D2 and couldn’t figure out how to get out of it, so he had to keep going.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:The bolded here is also super weird! Please tell me you just missed the spoiler. Please, please, please. I really don't want you to be scum, cause I had this awesome case on bessie and now I'm going to have to burn it :(
Don’t burn it. I’d like to see it.

#HBC | Zyth wrote: Burn in Fire:
EGW - I have not been able to follow his reads at all this game. I think this is just Ran not yet being able to fit things together due to the size of the game. His fake confidence in these reads may also just be the new play style he is trying. I'm not serious about him being this low. I'm just annoyed with him and find his constant prodding obnoxious, so I feel like trolling. I will say though that if there are two scum teams, I will have to genuinely reconsider Ran, cause those reads are seriously gross.
Is this not EGW’s usual playstyle? He didn’t mention in thread that he is trying something new (or I missed it) so I guess this is a meta read? I have the opposite view of him (perhaps because of no previous history), that his constant prodding has been very useful in drawing content from people, and I like that he is holding people to it if they don’t answer. This is the type of play I would have expected from Sabrar, and haven’t seen yet this game (could be Sabrar is not prodding as much as usual because there is already so much content being generated).

LaserGuy wrote: Sorting Znirk as scum as you have done is not townie play, because by including the inactive in your count of scum, you are deliberately underestimating the number of scum, and the number of scumreads that you need to have. If you're scum, it's also much easier to hide your scumbuddies in your townie/neutral pile if you throw an inactive, or newbie Town like PW, into your scum pile. This isn't even really specific to Znirk, it's just poor townie play in general. Unless you have an exceptionally good reason to include him in the scum pile (eg. cop result), then sorting him this way is very bad.
This is a good point, and I will think about this when I do my reads later (I need to refresh my mind on EGW’s reads and reasons). But I think you need to consider the DGames meta regarding lurkers. On their site, it seems like it is a valid scum strategy to lurk because they rarely have replacements available. I know lurking isn’t a scum strategy on our site, and the lurkers in question are xkcd players, but the mods are DGamers. Also, I need to check if EGW has valid scum reads on these two based on content. There are some players that are incredibly good at nailing scum on very little information, sometimes only a confirmation post. (note, EGW responded to LaserGuy here )

#HBC | Zyth wrote: -GLadOS kills whoever hammers her.
-Madge turns into tree stump if she hammers.
-Yolo confirmed with Madge that if she is the final Judgement vote on GladOS, she will turn into a tree stump.

-Therefore, Yolo is considering Madge being the final Judgement vote on GLadOS as a hammer.
-Therfore, we can assume that ANY person being the final Judgement vote on GLadOS is considered a hammerer, and that THAT person will be killed by the explosion.
This was also my interpretation based on in-thread claims. But now we have this:
Madge wrote:To be crystal clear, I am not 100% that I tree stump if I'm the final judgement voter (if I said it was certain before, then I was mistaken: I've re-read my message right now and it is a little ambiguous. I've asked for clarification.)

I've been told that the hammer vote is considered to be the last vote in a "lynch sequence". The answer made no statement on whether a judgement vote was part of a "lynch sequence".

(I also asked whether GLADOS gets activated by the judgement votes, and I was told I can't ask questions about other players' abilities, and I asked whether mod-votes activate my power just in case, and of course they don't)
Madge, this is quite suspicious. There has been a good deal of discussion today trying to figure out what to do with LaserGuy/Amrock, and your claims were an important part of the strategy. So now, on the weekend where there is usually low activity and you also conveniently aren’t going to be around, when we are trying to finalize a strategy, you just now read your message carefully and “discover” you may have misinterpreted something.

I would be a little less suspicious if you did not do the exact same thing on D1 with your assurance that you would be on line to cast the hammer vote, then a few hours before deadline you back out because you reread your role.

Madge wrote: Save yourself the wait and become suspicious of me now because you probably will beat me to it because I probably won't bother with it until/unless I both have time to devote to it (unlikely in a game this fast) and/or feel like it's the one missing piece that will let everything make sense. If I do a wagon analysis I get the feeling I'll waste like 2 hours of my life and not feel any closer to answers.
Compare the Madge’s attitude in the above with this comment:
Madge wrote: Plytho - your wagon analysis thread was exactly what I was thinking of writing, thank you for posting it.


jimbobmacdoodle wrote:On request, she provides a detailed analysis of moody, but it boils down to neutral, which again doesn't look too great given moody's flip.
You missed this explanation as to why I didn’t want to lynch moody here, (see my reply to BoomFrog).

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Amrock: This isn't actually a read, but I thought I'd mention that I'd support Amrock being allowed to zombie replace, if he wants to, assuming that there's nothing further in his role that town doesn't know about, that's important.
O gosh yes my thoughts exactly. Amrock has shown a willingness and desire to play and I would like to get him in this game.

Ninja'd, back soon.

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bessie
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby bessie » Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:27 pm UTC

Spak just came and went, if anyone is keeping track.

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Sabrar » Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:51 pm UTC

@Evil George Washington: only got some heat recently from LaserGuy so he could prod people and ask questions all day long which is a great place for scum to hide. It's also a great place for town-leader as well and I feel he took this role upon himself quite naturally. I got zero pings from him when I originally read his content and he's willing to engage everyone. Solid town.

Aside: LaserGuy seems unnaturally sure about his reads and that constitutes his main argument against EGW. I disagree with plytho that this is a town-tell, I simply can't understand how LaserGuy could be so certain about all of his reads being right.

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Gamma Emerald
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Gamma Emerald » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:07 pm UTC

Fine. Because town can't tell it's head from it's ass from a scum-motivated push I'm claiming. I'm Geralt of Rivia, Town Bounty Hunter. Each night including n0 I get a name as a bounty. If I lynch them I get a one shot power. My names received are jimbob n0 and FrozenFlame n1. THIS is why I voted FF over anyone else when I voted him day 2: I wanted to earn my power. It also partially explains my vote on jimbob, which was also because I was just not comfortable voting moody and I sure as hell wouldn't vote myself.
Also I'm just going to state this because I'm getting tired of EGW's bullshit. The one issue I find with EGW's play is his pushing of me. My tell I got in The Thing Mafia is that he tries to attack easy targets which carry little responsibility. And who better than me who is FOSed by damn near EVERYONE?

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:22 pm UTC

Gamma Emerald wrote:I read a couple pages of EGW posts and it's fairly clear their pushes are well reasoned and as such do not seem to come from scum!him.


This seems to contradict what you say here.

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Sabrar » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:28 pm UTC

Bounty Hunter doesn't seem like a townie role to me unless you can guarantee that your targets are non-town. Otherwise it's just a Lyncher.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:34 pm UTC

Will answer questions after work.

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Gamma Emerald
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Gamma Emerald » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:41 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Bounty Hunter doesn't seem like a townie role to me unless you can guarantee that your targets are non-town. Otherwise it's just a Lyncher.

AFAIK it seems random but the fact I've scumread both probably means at the very least scum are open for being bounties if it's not just them.
@EGW My issues with your push on me are the exception to my main read on you. So yes it seems contradictory but think of it like this: I am wary of the thing I just mentioned, but it's not enough to make me think less of you by much.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Sabrar » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:48 pm UTC

@BoomFrog: Provides good explanations but at the same time lot of his content is about defending himself so his scum-hunting feels light to me. Reads me neutral solely because of OMGUS (by own admission, as he agrees with my other reads). I can see where his scum-reads are coming from however some of his town-reads look weird. Slight scum-lean.

Gamma Emerald wrote:but the fact I've scumread both
I don't think I can trust your scum-reads as you're definitely not impartial.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Evil George Washington » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:49 pm UTC

Gamma why didn't you mention this before now?

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D2 | 9/25

Postby Sabrar » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:15 pm UTC

@bessie: I don't know her scum-meta, I've played only 1 game with her when she was Mafia (Wheel of Time 1), where I didn't get any serious pings from her and had to rely purely on PoE. That said if she can fake this post as scum then my hat's off to her. Overall her interaction with plytho feels genuine and I don't see any obvious links to other players. Most likely Town.


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