Crossover Mafia | Game!

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plytho
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Thu Oct 05, 2017 5:54 pm UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
plytho wrote:
you would find him scummier than someone who replaced him right now and immediately started posting?
Yes. Are you telling me you don't see a difference?
Say soup has x life circumstance keeping him from posting. What's the difference between:

x changing, soup starting to post (explaining his x circumstance)
x not changing, soup is replaced and his replacement starts posting.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Thu Oct 05, 2017 5:57 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Zen: correct me if I'm wrong but weren't you the one to tell EGW not to judge people by thread viewing?
Was being sarcastic/faceteous.

plytho wrote:irl is irl
Would prefer an actual answer.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:01 pm UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Was being sarcastic/faceteous.
Oh. Always had a problem noticing that.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:10 pm UTC

Actual answer: with real life reasons both situations are the same. But I might keep a niggling doubt for being online and not posting.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:42 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I did consider waiting to use it until the night prior to assumed LYLO as well (and hope I could guess which two of the remaining players would survive the night), as that would guarantee that I would be the only one who had to guess right in a 2 v 1 situation (normally, if there are no confirmed town, both town have to guess right).

This is the only townie way to use this power. The power itself isn't scummy considering it's been a town power before but it's not townie either considering how OS obviously likes to change things up. (Scarecrow with totally scummy powers as town one game)

Btw, JimBob since you claimed anyway, what's your rolename?
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:46 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Also, I've been mulling over this, but I think I'll claim. It's unlikely to do much harm, and I was thinking on using the ability tonight, but I'd like to hear people's opinions. I am a Town Vote Limiter. Once per game, I can target two players, and the next day, only they can be voted for. I'll be honest and say I've had no idea how I can usefully use this ability. I'm concerned that doing so and picking badly forces at best a No Lynch, and at worst a mislynch. My current plan is to pick two of my top four, in the belief that I will hit two scum.


Some thoughts on this claim.

I suppose claiming now is a townie move since we actually some opportunity to address it, but this power is sufficiently negative utility that it would have been much better to claim D1, especially after SirG claimed. I feel like somebody more clever than I probably could have found a very sexy solution to the GlaDOS situation using this power. At least, it should have been in consideration. Targeting Znirk/heury or Gamma/Ryu on N1 would probably not have been terrible especially if town was able to discuss the options ahead of time.

I don't understand the logic chain from here:
I'm concerned that doing so and picking badly forces at best a No Lynch, and at worst a mislynch.

to here:
My current plan is to pick two of my top four, in the belief that I will hit two scum.

My current top four are the four remaining in my pool from earlier, that I haven't looked at yet: BoomFrog, Zyth, Red Ryu, Yolinda.

The first point would strongly suggest that you withhold from using this power. The second quote suggests you're very confident in your scumreads--confident enough that you're prepared to override whatever else town might be thinking about for the day--but in the third quote, you "haven't looked at" these people, so I'm not sure where the strong scumread is coming from. FMPOV, two of the four in your list are very likely town, and Yolinda may well be as well, so the odds of you hitting two townies is pretty high.

jimbob wrote:Mostly to seek advice as to how to use the ability, if at all, but since there's no way scum are going to kill me soon anyway (so not claiming does not increase the likeliness of attracting the night kill).


Why not claim D1 then?

jimbob wrote:I could use it because I know I'm town, even if nobody believes me, so it prevents (or at least delays) a mislynch of myself - this was the partial motivation for using it tonight, because I want town to focus on who is more likely scum (FMPOV), rather than me.


This is an awful reason to use this ability if you're town. If a lot of people are thinking that you're scummy today, people aren't going to be less inclined to think you're scummy D5 after you've used a ridiculously anti-town ability to try to save yourself from being lynched. Worst case scenario for Town!jimbob, you force a mislynch or no lynch D4, and then we mislynch you D5 for doing it.

I did consider waiting to use it until the night prior to assumed LYLO as well (and hope I could guess which two of the remaining players would survive the night), as that would guarantee that I would be the only one who had to guess right in a 2 v 1 situation (normally, if there are no confirmed town, both town have to guess right).


This is one of the reasons why I immediately switched my vote to you. If you're scum, then this ability allows you to automatically win the game as soon as we hit LYLO. Unless we can get a result to clear you, it isn't safe for town for you to survive to LYLO.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby mpolo » Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:09 pm UTC

Being online and not posting is certainly worse than just disappearing. I honestly seldom notice who's online, so don't really use that (we had one time that scum was caught for posting in Gojoe but not in thread, I think, but I certainly wasn't the one to notice it…)

Skimming my bottom four on D3:

Red Ryu: My main complaint about him is a concentration on lynching potential independents to the exclusion of any actual scum hunting. He has promised a read list.

FrozenFlame: Little real material. I suppose there's some "pot calling the kettle black" there, but I found like 4 posts in day 3. Late to switch to moody. There was something else that was definitive in my mind when I did the other list, but I didn't write down what it was… Apparently it was from before D3, because that's all I've had time to look at.

Yolinda: Has there been a post yet from here? Scum by process of elimination, but only that.

BoomFrog: I tend to read him scummy, so I've been trying to be careful with him. Has pointed out some inconsistencies in jimbob's posting. Good reads list as well. Less certain of the scum lean after re-reading.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:57 pm UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:All of these claims.

Bessie was masoned?
and Jim is a vote limiter, null overall.

PW was 1-shot cop that Masons with his target if they are inno. You think this is null?

Jim's voting role is null.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:59 pm UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:With how long you were viewing the thread, you took way too long to answer that btw. It wouldn't be as suspicious though if you were replaced and your replacement answered me.


I'm finding this increasingly less helpful to actually finding scum the more games I play.

Especially if this logic was used on me when posting from work when I need to stop and take calls.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:01 pm UTC

Lol. I don't feel so bad anymore.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:07 pm UTC

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:All of these claims.

Bessie was masoned?
and Jim is a vote limiter, null overall.

PW was 1-shot cop that Masons with his target if they are inno. You think this is null?

Jim's voting role is null.

Gotcha. Could you weigh in on Boom's case? You asked why jim was being pushed. Boom gave you an explanation in the quote below. Could you respond to it?

BoomFrog wrote:
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:>wakes up to three more pages

:x

Welp gonna read where I left off.
I'd like to get you to weigh in on something controversial before it's resolved. Please skip ahead to my case on JimBob and my follow up a few posts down. After you read it please give you opinion on if you think JimBob is scum or town.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:51 pm UTC

Zen: pushes early for stumping Madge. This is way before the reason about the even number of players becomes relevant, so terrible idea. Extremely confident in reading LaserGuy as scum. Doesn't seem to have learned from Spak. Quick turn-around on plytho because of him defending LaserGuy. Her interaction with EGW feels off somehow, at some point they are at each other's throats, next they are buddy-buddies again. The shift is too sudden. Also extreme quick turn-around on LaserGuy because of his read on jimbob. Starting to think it's just her personality at this point. Her interaction with BoomFrog seems to be the only constant. I've already talked about that, it's a point in her favor I believe.
Wrt her ability it's not her fault she didn't produce any results on N1, targeting EGW next is reasonable but comes suspiciously after he claimed untargetable. I like the ability in abstract, it's nicely balanced in multiple ways. Very interested in any result tomorrow.
Overall still have her as slight scum-lean but way less confident in my read as before.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby bessie » Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:51 am UTC

Madge wrote:Oooo a question that's not about reads but about actual claims and stuff!!! I can do this!!!!!! Firstly did I miss jimbob's claim? The claims list I try to put at the bottom of each of my posts is not just a decoration, please help me keep it up to date: in a game this size stuff gets missed.

Secondly, I can't do it now, Later. dinner to cook.
So Madge never came back to this? What a surprise.

plytho wrote:please elaborate on the beneficial if used wisely part. Because I don't see that use of that power. That's why I called it a C.

Sure it's powerful, I'm not denying the strength, I'm denying the usefulness.
My power level divisions have nothing to do with how beneficial the power is to town. It’s B because it’s a power that actually does something. And it’s pretty powerful. jimbob can use it to direct the lynch tomorrow. He can guarantee he will not be lynched. He can guarantee you will not be lynched. How can you even consider this a C? Why are you both trying to portray jimbob's power as harmless?

BoomFrog wrote: Btw, JimBob since you claimed anyway, what's your rolename?
That’s an interesting question.

town
bessie
Evil George Washington
LaserGuy/Dark Horse
#HBC | Zyth
Sabrar
#HBC | Red Ryu
mpolo
FrozenFlame
Yolinda/heuristically_alone
BoomFrog
Madge
jimbobmacdoodle
plytho
scum

vote: jimbobmacdoodle

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:18 am UTC

God I've been busy and tired recently.

Reads:
100 confirmed furry ruy townie: Red Ryu
Town: Evil George Washington, Frozenflame, Bessie(Masoned right?)
Townlean: Sabrar, plytho, #HBC | Zyth,
null: jimbobmacdoodle, mpolo, (I got no idea with these two or why jim has hate)
scum lean: Laserguy, BoomFrog,
scum: Madge, inactive I forgot that can die

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:19 am UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:
#HBC | Zyth wrote:
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:All of these claims.

Bessie was masoned?
and Jim is a vote limiter, null overall.

PW was 1-shot cop that Masons with his target if they are inno. You think this is null?

Jim's voting role is null.

Gotcha. Could you weigh in on Boom's case? You asked why jim was being pushed. Boom gave you an explanation in the quote below. Could you respond to it?

BoomFrog wrote:
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:>wakes up to three more pages

:x

Welp gonna read where I left off.
I'd like to get you to weigh in on something controversial before it's resolved. Please skip ahead to my case on JimBob and my follow up a few posts down. After you read it please give you opinion on if you think JimBob is scum or town.


Working on this.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:31 am UTC

I need to go to bed but,

If I understand the basis of this.

Jim is posting huge walls, very huge walls of content, but his reads aren't lining up nor are they really changing where he is looking. Boom pointed out that hey, jim has said these players need to die but an hour later his reads don't line up with his actions nor words. He still posts huge amounts of content, but what is it really getting him? What is he really accomplishing as town to convince others? Maybe even more so when boom later pointed out 15 pages later, he mostly is where he started.

Alright, I can get behind not liking Jim for that.

I'd drop him to a scum lean, but I want madge dead hardcore if that slot will not stump.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:36 am UTC

I'll read his more recent posts and content, but with FF I still get a vibe of passion and movement with his long posts and what he wants. He's not as active, but he still leaves an impact.

Jim is posting walls, but really isn't grabbing me with movement.

I wouldn't be opposed on what boom pointed out, but it's also boom who posted it and still not a real fan of that slot, but I still think we need to do something about Madge today.

At least, this is somewhat what I think people are saying about Jim, and given how non existent he has been on my list I can see why that can turn to dislike. Gonna sleep on it, but my vote is still where it should be, on Madge.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:15 am UTC

bessie wrote:
plytho wrote:please elaborate on the beneficial if used wisely part. Because I don't see that use of that power. That's why I called it a C.

Sure it's powerful, I'm not denying the strength, I'm denying the usefulness.
My power level divisions have nothing to do with how beneficial the power is to town. It’s B because it’s a power that actually does something. And it’s pretty powerful. jimbob can use it to direct the lynch tomorrow. He can guarantee he will not be lynched. He can guarantee you will not be lynched. How can you even consider this a C? Why are you both trying to portray jimbob's power as harmless?

Here's how you described C:
bessie wrote:C) WTF? Are you kidding me? What good is that going to be, if I even decide to use it? I can’t imagine that this is in any way whatsoever useful. Oh well, effectively vanilla town I guess. Good thing my deductive powers are totally awesome. Maybe Overswarm is overrated.

This is entirely applicable to jimbob's power if he is town.
You mention usefulness. You mention town pov.

In fact, this describes jimbob's power more than it describes a one shot communication cop.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:37 am UTC

plytho:
Spoiler:
plytho wrote:Actual answer: with real life reasons both situations are the same. But I might keep a niggling doubt for being online and not posting.

This still isn't clear. I can't tell if you're conceding or not. Whenever you're proven wrong, logically, you make it ambiguous as to whether or not your mind changed. Is how I've rephrased it in the green, below correct?
Actual answer: You're right. I didn't consider irl reasons. With that factored in, both situations are the same and I shouldn't put much weight on his absence. But I might still keep a niggling doubt for being online when the day started and not posting.



You're saying that you were wrong here:
plytho wrote: I'm saying that there's a difference between players that become inactive and quit the game and players that (re)start playing after inactivity.

You're telling me that if soup started posting good content right this second, you would find him scummier than someone who replaced him right now and immediately started posting?
Yes. Are you telling me you don't see a difference?

given this:
We can never know which of the infinite circumstances that an unknown person mentally and physically exists in.


and the fact that Yolinda hasn't been online since the day started?

(I'm assuming that last part, but I'm not entirely sure if you do realize it, as you keep making it out to seem as if he has consistently been online and viewing the thread. His last online time was the day that the Day phase began. He wasn't in the game to even post in the previous Days. So we have no proof that he is lurking. That's merely one of the infinite possibilities for his absence.)

If I'm correct in my understanding here, a simple "yes" is a sufficient response.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:13 am UTC

Unofficial votals:

jimbobmacdoodle (4): BoomFrog, #HBC | Zyth, LaserGuy, bessie
FrozenFlameF (1): plytho
Madge (1): #HBC | Red Ryu

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:15 am UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:plytho:
Spoiler:
plytho wrote:Actual answer: with real life reasons both situations are the same. But I might keep a niggling doubt for being online and not posting.

This still isn't clear. I can't tell if you're conceding or not. Whenever you're proven wrong, logically, you make it ambiguous as to whether or not your mind changed. Is how I've rephrased it in the green, below correct?
Actual answer: You're right. I didn't consider irl reasons. With that factored in, both situations are the same and I shouldn't put much weight on his absence. But I might still keep a niggling doubt for being online when the day started and not posting.



You're saying that you were wrong here:
plytho wrote: I'm saying that there's a difference between players that become inactive and quit the game and players that (re)start playing after inactivity.

You're telling me that if soup started posting good content right this second, you would find him scummier than someone who replaced him right now and immediately started posting?
Yes. Are you telling me you don't see a difference?

given this:
We can never know which of the infinite circumstances that an unknown person mentally and physically exists in.


and the fact that Yolinda hasn't been online since the day started?

(I'm assuming that last part, but I'm not entirely sure if you do realize it, as you keep making it out to seem as if he has consistently been online and viewing the thread. His last online time was the day that the Day phase began. He wasn't in the game to even post in the previous Days. So we have no proof that he is lurking. That's merely one of the infinite possibilities for his absence.)

If I'm correct in my understanding here, a simple "yes" is a sufficient response.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:38 am UTC

Thanks, Sabrar for the votals.

I'm going to a wedding tonight so I'm going to be unavailable for a longer time before the deadline. (I might check in on the thread and change my vote if necessary, but will be unable to answer questions and do analysis.)

Things I intend to do before that:
-check why people are finding jimbob suspicious. I get the feeling that part of it is that his D3 reads are his D2 reads minus Gamma and Spak. That's pretty much the case with me (and looking at the similarity between mpolo's list and mine, perhaps also the case with mpolo). So why am I not getting heat for that?

-check BoomFrog again, and particularly his connection to Madge. I've been thinking about Madge and a big part of why I consider her townie is Sabrar and BoomFrog vouching for her because she's playing her townie meta. But if she's on the scum team with BoomFrog I can see him pushing her to play this way.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:59 am UTC

jimbob: his planned progression in the day is okay, the trouble is that he doesn't finish it. Clears a lot of people at the beginning and relies on PoE to set up his scummy group. Clears an additional 2 players after (though argument for FF is weak as already noted by many). Also he says here that FF's post was before hammer at the end of D2 but he doesn't bother to go back and check (it was not, rather it came conveniently 10 minutes after the hammer). He doesn't analyze the rest, just replies to queries and asks a few questions of his own. His priority in the past days was not on finding actual scum.
His claimed power is anti-town and after the very similar situation with Gamma I have no reason to doubt that it belongs to scum once more.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:14 am UTC

@plytho, I think the point that BoomFrog is making about jimbob's reads it that he posted these reads on Page 29, fairly early in D2, which included this:
Not going to try to justify these reads, because they are half-formed impressions based on my ongoing read:
Town: Evil George Washington, Madge (possibly indie), LaserGuy, Peaceful Whale, bessie, mpolo
Somewhere close to the boundary between the two: Red Ryu, heuristically_alone
Scum: Zyth, Gamma Emerald
People I literally have no idea on: FrozenFlame, BoomFrog

Spak, Sabrar, and plytho aren't included this list, but in the same post he puts them all as Town.

He then proceeded to reread every player. His conclusion on Page 37 is this:
Current alignment groups:
Town (of varying degrees of certainty): EGW, bessie, LaserGuy, plytho, Sabrar, Peaceful Whale, Madge, mpolo, Spak (pending response)
Unsure, pending re-read: Red Ryu
Possibly scum, but not enough to reliably judge: heuristically_alone, Znirk
Possibly scum, but not on moody's team: BoomFrog, FrozenFlame
Scum: Gamma Emerald, Zyth
Indy: Amrock


There's no changes in his reads. His initial impressions of every player remained exactly the same after a full, thorough, and detailed reread of every player. Even the groupings are the same, except for heury and Znirk moving together.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:17 am UTC

Well that was dum, and shows the perils of reading in author order only without checking contents.
Based on the context of FF's posts only, I genuinely thought the post I was talking about was pre-Spak-self-hammer, when it definitely wasn't, and as Sabrar pointed out was even post real-hammer. The reason I thought it was was because FF's next post addressed the self-hammer with surprise, implying he'd only just seen it. I think it unlikely that FrozenFlame would lie about where he was in that context, so the feelings I got from the post are still valid.

I had already started work on a logic post as to why I think that the post didn't come from scum, spoilered below. I never finished it, partly due to time, but also because I started to realise that the second point I was working on didn't lead definitively to town!FrozenFlame at all. I am therefore not confident at all in my previous town read on FrozenFlame.
Spoiler:
Went back to find the post I'm referring to re. FrozenFlame's end of day's townie-sounding reaction. It's this post. The post came after Gamma claimed indie, and before Spak's failed self-hammer. Keep in mind that FrozenFlame was not one of the players who believed that killing Glados through judgement would cause the last player on the wagon to die.

Assume scum!FrozenFlame is being truthful with his above statement. I don't think scum would prefer the death of an indie over a townie, especially an indie who was more likely to be pushing a town lynch than a scum one. However, he's pushing heavily for lynching Gamma over Spak in this post, which suggests that this isn't the case.

Assume scum!FrozenFlame does actually know the nature of Glados's explosion. In this case, it doesn't matter which player is lynched and which hammers Amrock, since neither candidate is scum. Why kick up a fuss about it? Presumably to try to look townie. Not looked, but I believe FF had previously expressed both anti-indie and his belief in how the explosion worked.
I don't think I'm going to get much chance to post at work today, at least not in detail. I will address all outstanding questions after I get home, if not before then.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:18 am UTC

EBWPP: first sentence should read "without checking context"
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:28 am UTC

Quick comments on one or two other things.

On my "progression" for the day, I've simply not have the time to do proper re-reads of the remainder of my pool. I plan on doing that this evening. However, I'm pretty confident in most of my town reads, so that leaves by PoE the remainder.

@Sabrar, if town!you were in my shoes with that power, how would you use it? When would you claim, and why?

On why I didn't claim D1, it's the same reason why you don't claim VT D1 - it directs the scum kill onto more valuable townies.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:32 am UTC

Would like to see Madge do what she promised. I am off tomorrow, will catch up then. I'm going to sleep.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:32 am UTC

By the way, my character is "Twisted Fate" from League of Legends.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:37 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:@plytho, I think the point that BoomFrog is making about jimbob's reads it that he posted
Spoiler:
these reads on Page 29, fairly early in D2, which included this:
Not going to try to justify these reads, because they are half-formed impressions based on my ongoing read:
Town: Evil George Washington, Madge (possibly indie), LaserGuy, Peaceful Whale, bessie, mpolo
Somewhere close to the boundary between the two: Red Ryu, heuristically_alone
Scum: Zyth, Gamma Emerald
People I literally have no idea on: FrozenFlame, BoomFrog

Spak, Sabrar, and plytho aren't included this list, but in the same post he puts them all as Town.

He then proceeded to reread every player. His conclusion on Page 37 is this:
Current alignment groups:
Town (of varying degrees of certainty): EGW, bessie, LaserGuy, plytho, Sabrar, Peaceful Whale, Madge, mpolo, Spak (pending response)
Unsure, pending re-read: Red Ryu
Possibly scum, but not enough to reliably judge: heuristically_alone, Znirk
Possibly scum, but not on moody's team: BoomFrog, FrozenFlame
Scum: Gamma Emerald, Zyth
Indy: Amrock


There's no changes in his reads. His initial impressions of every player remained exactly the same after a full, thorough, and detailed reread of every player. Even the groupings are the same, except for heury and Znirk moving together.


Oh, and 18 pages later, on page 55, he mentions that his top 4 are now:
Spoiler:
Town (in no particular order, but mostly judged based on concrete actions)
jimbob
EGW - As well as his massive attempts to generate content, there are one or two small things that have pinged me as him being likely town, such as his latest anti-wall comment, for no other reason than that I can't see why scum would bother to say it.
bessie - My gut wants to cry OMGUS, and as noted before, I'm not a massive fan of some of her other content, but really I should for now trust in PW's statement about bessie being Town.
plytho - I can't believe somebody whose reads are so in line with mine is scum. However, of these reads, he is the one I'm least certain about, mostly because so many others are suspicious of him.
mpolo - I really don't see scum claiming this D1, and also not using N0 (or lying D1 about this and risk getting counter-claimed by somebody). His N1 targets sounded logical enough. I would like more from him though.
LaserGuy - Another grudging town pick, but I don't believe that scum!LaserGuy would ever have suggested that he would take the potential Glados hit, and especially then actually follow up (prior to Spak and Gamma jumping on). At the time he revoted Amrock, there was no guarantee that either Spak or Gamma (or anybody else) would "hammer" Amrock, so it would have been an incredible risk for scum!LaserGuy to take. And unvoting at the last minute would have just sealed his lynch D3.
Madge - She was too willing to hammer the bomb D2 (see this post). I don't see this coming from scum (jester, yes, scum, no). Now that I think about it, this point also makes me doubt my possible indie read of her, unless it's a win condition that can be achieved whilst being dead (which I doubt, because indie!Madge would surely be tied to her half-lynched ability/role/thing).

I would not be happy lynching any of the above currently.

This leaves 4 scum in {Sabrar, Red Ryu, Zyth, FrozenFlame, BoomFrog, yolinda}, assuming I'm right.


He narrows this down to:
My current top four are the four remaining in my pool from earlier, that I haven't looked at yet: BoomFrog, Zyth, Red Ryu, Yolinda.


So... between Page 29 and now, basically nothing has changed in jimbob's world other than Gamma and Spak died. His reads are completely static.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:50 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar, if town!you were in my shoes with that power, how would you use it? When would you claim, and why?
No idea, depends on circumstances, probably wouldn't use it until F3 (though pretty sure I'd be dead by then anyway). Although as I was extremely sure about Zen N1, if I had a similar conviction on a second player it's possible I might have used it right there bolstered by being right about moody as I don't like a power to go unused. Definitely wouldn't claim unless absolutely forced to do so.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:08 am UTC

LaserGuy: I have some issues with his content (convenient D2 Miller claim, ignoring Gamma's scumminess just because his scum-reads attacked him, going after EGW (the 'bait' part was especially ridiculous as he could have easily anticipated from his earlier playstyle that he would push for an answer), complete turn-around on Zen). However most of his reads show logical progression, it feels like genuine scum-hunting and I still stand by my opinion that he was willing to take the bomb. Leaning Town.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:14 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:As for why I worded this game's setup quote differently, I believe that it is very likely that there are two anti-town groupings in the game, to ensure that the game doesn't take a long time to run. Assuming for a moment that there are only regular scum kill deaths and lynches a 20 player game could theoretically take as many as 9 days to complete (more if we end up with any No Lynches are doctor saves), which sounds too long. An SK would form one of those groupings, so would be possible, but I consider two scum teams and an SK unlikely (especially given only 1 death last night), so effectively the presence of an SK replaces that of a scum team in my setup. I phrased it that way around (SK replaces a scum team, rather than a scum team replacing an SK) because I believe a second scum team to be the likelier of the two. Of course, I could be completely wrong with all of this and there only be one large scum team.


@jimbob, you said here that you believe that two scumteams is quite likely (and likewise mentioned it at the start of the game). Why is this never mentioned in any of your subsequent reads or player analysis? Why aren't weren't you worried that any of your townpicks might be on a second scumteam? Or that some of the people that pushed moody (or you) might have been from a different scum team?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:18 am UTC

And if you think there's only one scumteam now, when did you decide that? Why don't your reads reflect any reorientation in your thoughts?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:33 am UTC

Reading BoomFrog and LaserGuy's cases on jimbob:

From BoomFrog's post:
The inconsistency of going from reading BF and FF as town first and saying they're lynchable later is a good point.

From LaserGuy's post:

I don't agree with the first point about the inconsistencies. He votes red ryu in one post, in the next one red ryu is one of his top 4 (that I don't read as ordered). In his following post he updates his read on Red Ryu as he promised in the first one, he's not considering him as a possible fourth slot.

I agree with the point about the scumskim not being enough to town-read FrozenFlame.

The position of Red Ryu on his reads list is strange indeed.

LaserGuy's points on jimbob's claim:

You're right that picking two people from his top 4 is a terrible idea.

Delaying the mislynch of himself is equally terrible motivation.

LaserGuy wrote:So... between Page 29 and now, basically nothing has changed in jimbob's world other than Gamma and Spak died. His reads are completely static.
That's true and it's indeed notable.

The problem I have reading jimbob as scum here is that he comes to almost the same conclusions I do. My own reads have changed since D2 but that change has been removing spak and gamma for dying and moving bessie, mpolo and Madge towards town (where jimbob already had them much earlier). So I feel like I'm in a similar situation. So if he's scum I'm wrong and I want to be right.

So I agree there's some suspicious stuff coming from jimbob and he could be scum. Unfortunately that would mean I need to overhaul my thinking because I'm reading the game all wrong. In that sense jimbob might be a good strategic lynch though.

If he flips town I can keep my reads and we can start lynching the people that pushed for his lynch twice (and I look very good for saving jimbob D1 :D ). It's not a big loss for town because he'd be our first mislynch (kind of) and jimbob's power sucks. If he's scum we can start figuring out why both wagons were scum D1 and I know I need to scrap my assumptions and start again.

I'd still rather lynch FrozenFlame or maybe BoomFrog (after my reread) but I don't think lynching jimbob is terrible for town.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:39 am UTC

Could you go more into your BoomFrog read. Your Ryu read as well if ya have the time. Ryu made a pretty significant scum tell and I'm surprised no one has called it out.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:42 am UTC

Madge: agree that she hasn't done anything in the game. plytho has a very good point about BoomFrog possibly coaching her (although BF couldn't have been aware of the extent and details of my read on her). Regardless, she has no abilities, we can talk about maybe stumping her tomorrow.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:44 am UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Could you go more into your BoomFrog read. Your Ryu read as well if ya have the time. Ryu made a pretty significant scum tell and I'm surprised no one has called it out.
reading BoomFrog now, but could be a while. I'll check Red Ryu too if I have the time after that.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:48 am UTC

plytho wrote:The problem I have reading jimbob as scum here is that he comes to almost the same conclusions I do.


Yeah, it's funny how that works. Almost as if you guys were able to talk about things together.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:39 am UTC

The two scum team theory was only relevant D2 as far as people interacted with moody in a way I saw could not come from a scum buddy (or would only come from a scum buddy). Why didn't I comment on it over other people? I can't say for certain (I made those reads a long time ago), but a) in many cases, it wasn't relevant, and b) in those where it could be, due to them pushing moody over me, either their wealth of other content drowned out any relevance here, or it simply didn't occur to me when I made that read (a quick skim of my read of EGW suggests the latter). I don't think considering the potential of a second scum team would have had any effect on my town read of most players though (e.g. EGW had plenty of other reasons for being town).

As to why I wasn't worried about any of my town picks being on a second team, I was slightly, but it wasn't all that important - I was pretty confident in my scum reads of Gamma, and later Spak, so I didn't need to go second-guessing my reads and trying to pick out a second team, right at that point, but it did have an impact at least on FF's and BoomFrog's positions in the ordered list I made later on.

I thought I said earlier today that I no longer consider two teams likely. That was a conclusion around the start of D3 given apparent strength of powers and the lack of any sign of a second team.
LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:The problem I have reading jimbob as scum here is that he comes to almost the same conclusions I do.


Yeah, it's funny how that works. Almost as if you guys were able to talk about things together.
Do you really think scum-buddies would be so obvious in having matching reads?
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