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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:29 pm UTC

mpolo: overall very little content, makes it hard to evaluate. Townie reads are not explained at all, has only 2 scum-reads based on actual analysis. Power is scummy looking but not necessarily so. Protests that his 'poor reads' were right which feels off to me, especially wrt bessie. moody gave him townie points right from the start and suggested we keep him around to 'earn his keep' and because he would be useful. On the scummy side.

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#HBC | Zyth
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:12 pm UTC

Reads:

Key
Spoiler:
Tone: This is kind of a difficult term to describe, but it is basically the vibe you get from someone. The initial feel you get when reading their posts. Townie tone is generally loose and free. Scummy tone is generally rigid and convoluted.
Speculation: This is all circumstantial and I don't consider it when making my reads. Circumstantial points should only ever be used when the criteria that would make them valid, (aka evidence), are brought to light.
Speculation (for funzies): This is speculation that we will never have evidence for, at least until the game ends.
Town/Mafia/Indy Percent: This is just a numeral indicator (out of 100) of how strongly/unstrongly I feel about a read.


Town

Boom
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Tone (Goal-Oriented).
-Read Progression.
-Read Alignment.
-Unique, insightful points.
-Not asking questions simply for the sake of asking, but actually cares about the responses.

Townie Percent: 90

Note & Speculation: If plytho or Ruy is scum, Boom's town percent drops to 60-70. If both are scum, it's quite likely that Boom is as well. plytho and Ruy have both undergone significant changes in tone at different points. I don't think anyone in the game but Boom has the mind type for this level of coaching (aside from myself :mrgreen:). Perhaps bessie does? I don't have anything to draw on to determine her "chessmastery". She's the only one I haven't been able to get a sense of this for.

plytho, D3, has changed his wall-battle responses (scum meta) to non-nonchalant one-liners. Ruy, early D1, seemed to know points that I wouldn't think he'd have picked up on, given how blatant it was that he was hard core skimming. So I suspect that he was being given some tl;drs privately. Late D1, his tone underwent a dramatic shift. It was like early d1 and late d1 Ruy were two different people. Interestingly, plytho, having Ruy as his supposed top scum read, gave this as his reason for voting gamma instead. plytho was quite flimsy on his Ryu read D1. Again, he claimed that Ruy was his top scum read, but strayed his vote away from him when it came down to it. ((btw if people are curious about my continuous misspelling , 'Ruy' isn't a typo; it's a nickname. I know, quite creative.))

Also interestingly, immediately after I start to push Ryu to SirG hammer, plytho comes at us with this. And adamantly argues against the SirG plan thereafter. Boom, who was the one who started the SirG plan, backs down from it in his next post.

Oh btw, let's take a look at that last link again. Ruy was Boom's top scum read, but he omitted him from his top 4 list. Why? Well this was the current tally at the time of his post:

Code: Select all

Red Ryu         7
Moody           6
Gamma Emerald   6
SirGabriel      3
Dark Horse      3
Spak            2
BoomFrog        2
jimbob          1


So, I have two theories, depending on whether or not there is one or two scum teams.

One scum team: Around the time when moody posted the tally above (and Boom's subsequent moody vote) is when scum decided to save Red and commit to bussing moody (Reason probably being that Red has a stronger PR + moody's history of not surviving very long anyway). I never realized just how late Boom actually was to the moody push. Early on the official wagon, late on the push.

Two scum teams: Team B consists of Boom, plytho, and Ruy. Team M consists of moody and jim (or moody, jim, x). plytho and Boom were trying to distance from Ruy before, but as it was becoming more likely that Ruy was going to be lynched, based on the vote tally, they decided to pivot to moody / save Ruy as the opportunity presented itself.

Both of these theories are supported by the fact that plytho makes his switch from Ryu to gamma within minutes of Boom's post.


bessie
Spoiler:

What I like:
-The crumb she left for PW to use if she were to die. I think this is the strongest point in bessie's favor. GFbessie would not need to inform PW of this.

Quote:
Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Sabrar, you missed one. Do you want me to give it to you or would you rather try to find it yourself?
I suck at finding even obvious breadcrumbs (Bin Chicken was an eye-opener) and don't really have the time to look for it. Please point it out.
Oh well, as previously stated somewhere in this game I suck at bread crumbs, that’s why I rarely leave them or find them (and I usually don’t even bother to look for them). I made the effort this time because I wanted to leave something for Peaceful Whale to point to if I was night killed.
From my D2 town-scum list:
bessie wrote: town
bessie
Peaceful Whale
Evil George Washington
Every game where I’ve been a mason I’ve put my mason partner’s name next to mine in my list. I thought Peaceful Whale’s change in position from D1 would be enough that if I was dead and his claim wasn’t believed, he could point to it and say bessie said she’s done this before. And I told him if an xkcder pushed against this to call them scummy for it.

I wrote this in the D2 final hour voting frenzy.
bessie wrote:I'm trying to write some replies to content I missed but not getting very far, now I'm lost on where we are with voting. Evil George Washington, you're my strongest town read, where should I vote?
I’m kind of disappointed Sabrar never asked me about this comment, because it was written with him in mind. I expected someone on D3 to point out that PW, not EGW, was my strongest town read. To which my answer was going to be that PW wasn’t a read.


Things I find Questionable:
-Her town read of me D1 and so forth. Bessie put me in her interesting pile D1 and then never really got around to looking at me further. Despite this, I somehow ended up pretty high in her reads post. bessie has claimed that she doesn't do tone reads, so I don't know where this came from. I kept waiting for her to go into it, but she never did. It wasn't until D3 that she really posted a reason for her town read of me, but it doesn't really seem like a strong reason to me.
-Her jimbob read D1 & D2. This is the same as above, but on the opposite spectrum. Bessie doesn't really go into why she thinks jimbob is scum. I kept waiting for this, but it never came.

Things I DON'T find Questionable:
-Her postponing her read / analysis on Sabrar. Unlike with the two above, it didn't feel like she was pulling a Sabrar read out of no where. This is why I didn't mention him when I initially made the point about bessie surfing over some people.

Town Percent: 85
Mafia Percent: 15

Note & Speculation: If there are two teams, bessie could be on Team M. If there are two teams AND the night kill alternates, I think it is even more likely that bessie is on team M. It's odd to me that scum decided to kill PW Night 2, but not Night 1, when it was obvious that he was an investigative by early D1. This, coupled with how weird bessie was wrt PWs claim, causes me suspect that bessie wanted to draw PW's investigation and then kill him to clear herself.


Sabrar
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Really townie tone.
-Reaction to Spak lynch feels legit.
-Keeps scum read of me no matter how much I try to buddy him or how much the winds change wrt other people's view of me. This strongly suggests genuineness.

Things I find Questionable:
-Sabrar has so far addressed, to my satisfaction, all the things I had found questionable.

Townie Percent: 85

Note: If there is one team AND jim is not mafia, then Sabrar becomes semi-confirmed town to me since he was the one to get George to swing back to moody D1, the pivoting point of the moody > jim .


EGW
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Tone (Authoritative)
-Frontliner
-Very open

Things I find Questionable:
-Some reads have been far-fetched imo (Sabrar read early D1. DH Read D1. Boom read early D2. Zen-Spak Read D2. Sabrar read D3). I feel like Ran has been on way too high alert and reading into things that just aren't there. This is really peculiar to me because our thoughts usually overlap.
-Assumed to know how know-it-all and Megaman's powers work.

Odd / Notable, but doesn't really warrant suspicion:
-"Game Changing Reads" phrasing. I've never seen Ran ego-boast like this.

Townie Percent: 85
Indy Percent: 15


mpolo
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Giving town control of his role.
-Willingness to be judgement hammerer. This move didn't feel like a bluff, because it wasn't unprompted like Laser's was. mpolo voted as a direct reaction to my argument that he should do so (bottom of this post). His vote. It was just so ladidadi. This point is invalidated if Laser is mafia, since Laser later Judgement voted behind mpolo. As buds, mpolo could Judgement vote without worry, since he'd know his partner would eventually vote.

Townie Percent: 70

Note: If Laser scum, town:mafia becomes 55:45.


Frozen
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Tone is townie af.
-Is me with an afro.

Things I find Questionable:
-Blatant skimming coupled with no motive to look for things he's curious about. This can be seen throughout this post, particularly the very last line about my claim.
-His reasoning for town reading jim. That being: jim is town reading Frozen while everyone else is scumspecting him. Frozen town reading (or rather non-playing) jim for this is absurd. In the very same post that Frozen non-plays jim for defending him, he makes the argument to Zen on why scum might do this:

He's saying in the context that everyone was finding Gamma scummy, which they were right about but didn't KNOW they were right about, a scum player has motive to be the one who holds out and goes against the grain, BETTING on the fact that his knowledge that the slot being pushed isn't scum aligned and thus is likely to be town will payoff for him as town points when everyone else looks bad for shoving a mislynch down everyone's throat.


Frozen is aware that scum has motivation to go against the grain in a situation like this, but that is the very basis of his change in heart on jim?:

I've been pretty hot and cold on both jimbob & boomfrog all game but jimbob stuck out his neck for me in a way I doubt any scum would ever do so that pushed him into non plays.

Jimbob sticking his neck out for me here is pretty damn townie IMO. If he's scum I'm an easy fucking mislynch since everyone wants my nuts strung up for being lazy despite 3-4 other slots being just as culpable if not moreso.


Things I DONT find Questionable:
-His activity. This is NAI, especially for Frozen, who often falls behind a bit. I'm actually very satisfied that he's been making the effort to stay caught up in this behemoth of a game.
-His strategy of getting rid of unknowns and fodder early on (and therefore potentially keeping around suspects that are active and involved). I agree with this strategy. Not going to argue about it in game. What's important is that this is a strategy that Frozen consistently plays by, so it's completely NAI.
-His wall/thoroughly-going-over-a-point posting style. Again NAI. Just the way he posts. As he said, this can be seen from his posts in DT.

Speculation: Early push on jim D1 seemed to come from no where. This had caught my attention D1 and I've looked over those two posts a dozen times since. I don't see see it as even remotely suspicious that Jim didn't commit to a PW read on page 3. When I first saw this, my initial impression was that it was bussing/distancing. But around Frozen's 4th or so post, I started to like his content, so I thought that maybe townFrozen had some sort of insight on the jimbob slot. That idea proved wrong when Frozen started to unsuspect jim at the end of the Day for reasoning that was just as poor as the reasoning for his suspicion in the first place. Coming into D2, I still liked Frozen's play overall, so I put this point in my diary and only intended to bring it up on a jim scum flip (indicated in reads post here). The Ruy-Frozen-Laser connections that Laser pointed out in his reads post adds more weight to the sketchiness of this relationship. In a two-team universe, Frozen is definitely a contender for Team M.

Speculation (for funziez): Frozen made a big show about how OS wouldn't put lynchers, jesters, or survivors in the game. All of three of these have turned out to be in the game. It's possible that moody knew this from his role; and so scumBudFrozen made those posts in order to point to later to indicate his ignorance of the setup.

Townie Percent: 50 (dat tone yo)
Mafia Percent: 50


Yolinda
-


Madge
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Townie tone.

Questionable things:
-Knew SirG being hammered was considered a kill.

Condemning things:
-Actively not trying to help sort things out.
-Avoided claiming alignment in claim post.
-Advocated for town-friendlyness of indies.

Indy Percent: 70
Townie Percent: 30


plytho
Spoiler:

Note: plytho, plytho, plytho. Sigh. This read has fluctuated the most out of anyone. I initially had him at 70%. Reviewing him brought up some things I found questionable, which brought the percent down. I asked him about them here and he completely answered them to my satisfaction. I was happy to keep him in my town reads until that darn Yolinda post.

What I like:
-Frontliner.
-Unique, insightful points.
-Detailed reading and rereading of the game.

Things I find Questionable:
-The comment he made about Yolinda, here. It's not so much the fact that he finds Yolinda's absence suspicious, but the fact that he found him so suspicious that he didn't think Yo could be redeemed if he started posting. This is some serious murkying up the waters. Not even Ran, who always reads into inactivity, would say this. Ran just wants Yolinda to post. He doesn't think that there's nothing Yolinda could say that could make him town read him.

I wanted to determine whether or not plytho was intentionally being dense or if he honestly just couldn't see how his read was flawed. I tested his logical aptitude with that chain of back-n-forths, and he did eventually concede (here). The fact that plytho could come to understand this through that discussion, indicates to me that he very likely understood it to begin with, and that I simply backed him into a logic corner where he was forced to concede. This is opposed to someone such as Ran, who, despite my many efforts to explain this to him throughout our time playing together, still disagrees with me.

Odd / Notable, but doesn't really warrant suspicion:
-plytho seems to pick up and is able to speculate on things really quickly. Some of his speculation seems like it's coming from an informed mindset (such as his vote manipulation speculation). This was suspicious to me at first, but I've come to realize that plytho is actually just abnormally smart.

Mafia Percent: 55
Townie Percent: 45


jim
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Early scum read on moody. He was on moody way before the winds turned toward that direction.
-This line: "Summary - although there are definitely some weird, scummy points in BoomFrog's content, and I feel like I could manufacture a case for him being scum if I had to, I don't think he is". This feels so townie to me. I don't feel like scum!jim would say how he could manufacture a case.

Things I find Questionable:
-Awkward word usage. The stuff I pointed out in my D1 reads post.
-D2 his analysis of me consisted mostly of townie points, but his conclusions went against that. It came off to me like he was forcing his read on me. I don't think he ever addressed this concern of mine.
-His reasoning for town reading Frozen. That being: Frozen made some off-hand remark toward moody misreading Frozen's post. This is just as absurd of a reason to town read Frozen as Frozen's reason was to non-play jim.

Speculation (for funziez): jim thought that moody was posting more than usual because he was also talking to him privately.

Mafia Percent: 55
Town Percent: 20
Indy Percent: 25

Note: Honestly, this is the first time I've really dug into jim since D1, and he's not looking as bad as I thought at all. His Frozen reasoning is the most questionable thing.

I've also come to the conclusion that Laser's jim-Ruy speculation is most likely incorrect. Reason being: Jim's role is clearly anti-town. The only reason I could see maifa!jim claiming this is if the team made the decision to go full on bus mode. Ryu, however, is reading jim's claim as null and is making no moves to push jim. Ruy is very unlikely to be jim's bud. Furthermore, looking over jim's early Day 1, he had Ruy as a scum read pretty early on and was consistent with it. If Ruy is mafia AND there is 1 team, jim's mafia percent drops to 10.


Laser
Spoiler:

What I like:
-His theories seem like things that a townie deeply digging into the game would come up with. For example, his post on me D2 and his most recent Frozen, jim, and Ryu reads.

Things I find Questionable:
-His Gamma read. Only found Gamma town because of those that were pushing him. He was that confident in his scum reads? Clearly he wasn't, based on how much he's been shiftin'.
-Half-ass attempt to swing things to Frozen after coming to town read Zen. When Zen doesn't join him, he makes a half-ass attempt at plytho. When he's not joined there, he gets shifty on his Zen read. btw he said his Frozen read came from rereading Frozen at my request. I never requested this wtf?
-He agreeing with Ran's Spak-Zen theory. Edging Ran on. ((I betcha he would have agreed with Ran's Sabrar theory had the wind gone that way :roll: ))
-Voted over mpolo on Judgment hammer with absolutely no prompt to do so. A bluff if I've ever seen one. It's not likely town was gonna prefer him being the hammerer instead of someone else.

Mafia Percent: 65


Ruy
Spoiler:

What I like:
- Lynching / pushing scummy people.
- Putting effort into reading.

Things I find Questionable:
-Hard pushing for a SirG lynch D1 without an idea on who to have hammer. Avoided answering to that point every time I asked him.
-Agreed to LaserGuy quick lynch. All of Ryu's reads lists since Laser joined the game can be found on this page. He has Laser as a town read in every one of them. And he is indicating a town read of Laser throughout all his posts that mention him. Saying things as "I like Laser's this. I like Laser's that. Laser be town bros with me!". If you look at the next page, you'll see that Ryu never had any thought progression for his change in Laser read. He simply gives some vague reasoning before agreeing with the opportunity I provided. It makes no sense for townRuy to have pounced on the opportunity for a Laser quick lynch.

Mafia Percent: 75

Scum

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:20 pm UTC

Vote: Red Ryu

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:37 pm UTC

btw, during my reading, I found some crumbs from Mega Man on D2. I'm not going to point them out as to not reveal the player, but it's very likely that the game is 13-5-1-1 or 13-4-1-1-1.

Top 1: Ryu

I still believe Madge should hammer. I'd like for everyone, in their next post, to (1) commit to a side on this and (2) give your opinion on the point I made against Ryu.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:38 pm UTC

Here's my post on BoomFrog:

I've just put down my rambling notes. Most of my notes are in the spoilers. I'm pretty sure I caught a scum slip. That one isn't spoilered. With the tldr bolded.

Spoiler:
In this very early BoomFrog post he’s giving out scummy and townie points to people. The only one he gives an out is FrozenFlame.

Challenging EGW here for voting moody (instead of SirG or Red Ryu).

Vote on moody

Vote count at that point:
Vote Count 1.8
Frozenflame (1): Gamma Emerald
Madge (2): Madge, SirGabriel
BoomFrog (1): Spak
Red Ryu (3): plytho, jimbobmacdoodle, moody7277
jimbobmacdoodle (1): Frozenflame
SirGabriel (2): BoomFrog, #HBC | Red Ryu
moody7277 (1): Sabrar
Dark Horse (2): #HBC | Zyth, Evil George Washington
Gamma Emerald (1): Maven89

Not Voting (6): heuristically_alone, Bessie, Dark Horse, Znirk, mpolo, Peaceful Whale

After that he stays on moody, refusing to join the jimbob wagon.

His explanation for that is weird though. I’ve forgotten the explanation for the likely buddies line but I’ll run into it as a read on. It’s in this post and it still feels weird. I don’t understand how town!BoomFrog would’t consider the ramifications of both being scum. I think BoomFrog was trying to set up jimbob, but was lazily not considering the townie view of the two wagons.

He really pushed for Madge votes at the end of D1.

And keeps it up for a while. In this post BoomFrog ignores the fact that scum can cooperate. Maybe Madge won't invent such a “crazy but subtly balanced” power, but someone else on her team might?

Here moody is defending himself from EGW and adds a 5th point that EGW didn’t mention.

I really don’t know why BoomFrog thought that was necessary to add. [paranoia] Possibly BoomFrog was very aware of that timing because he’d argeed with moody that he’d start bussing?[/paranoia]

BoomFrog also mentioned he thought moody was already being bussed at the time he voted. I pointed out that Boom and Sabrar were the only votes at that point. BoomFrog replied saying he meant the top 4’s. But that still feels kind of weird to me.

Here is that quote. BoomFrog is saying moody gave up and started acting blatantly scummy and people were probably bussing already when Boom voted moody.

Unless moody’s reads list counts as blatantly scummy (instead of just scummy) I don’t see anything blatant until this post day’s later. The posts in between look defensive. (perhaps this post could also be seen as blatant for omitting jimbob).


Here BoomFrog is saying he was trying to undermine the moody lynch because the wagon was suspiciously strong. Referring to the point he asked bessie to move to moody as the point he decided to switch (which is obvious as he votes moody in that post).

The problem with this is that the moody wagon wasn’t strong at all at that point.

This is the last point where BoomFrog was fighting the "strong" wagon.
These are the last official votals before that point. Changes between those votals and BoomFrogs fight against the strong wagon: jimbob voting Red Ryu, BoomFrog voting SirG, Zen voting Sirg, EGW voting moody. So there was exactly one vote on moody at that point.

BoomFrog can point to the top 4 tally to say the moody wagon was strong, but there was no tally when BoomFrog was undermining the wagon. In fact here is the first top 4 tally. That’s three pages after BoomFrog’s undermining of the moody wagon. It’s even after EGW proposed posting top 4’s. BoomFrog’s vote is on the page of the first tally.

Those were a lot of words. Tldr:

This quote:
BoomFrog wrote:5) I was trying to undermine your Moody lynch, it was suspiciously strong.

From this post is a lie. There was nothing strong about the moody lynch when BoomFrog did his undermining.



Spoiler:
Here BoomFrog is saying that moody’s mood was that of someone who’d given up. I don’t really get that from moody’s posts around that point. Maybe this was more apparent in scum chat?

Quote from this post:
BoomFrog wrote:I may agree in the end but I need to do my own analysis of the D1 lynch wagons and how doomed Moody seemed when the JimBob wagon formed. Special now goes to Moody saying he'd be happy to switch to Red or Gamma but not JimBob.

Moody never said that.

this reads list concerns me a little because of the overlap with mine at the scummy end (Red Ryu and FF).
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:38 pm UTC

Vote: BoomFrog
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby bessie » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:54 pm UTC

plytho wrote:This is entirely applicable to jimbob's power if he is town.
You mention usefulness. You mention town pov.

In fact, this describes jimbob's power more than it describes a one shot communication cop.
Interesting that you keep wanting to present jimbob’s power as completely useless (which it’s not), and it’s so obvious that he’s not going to use it anyway (which it’s not), so for all intents and purposes jimbob is vanilla town (which he’s not). What are you not understanding about this? A level C power is something that is useless in a way that almost doesn’t accomplish anything if used. jimbob can protect someone from a lynch, he can even prevent a lynch if we can’t decide between his choices so we no lynch, how is that not a strong power?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: On why I didn't claim D1, it's the same reason why you don't claim VT D1 - it directs the scum kill onto more valuable townies.
So did you always consider yourself a vanilla level townie, or at the time you made this post did you consider yourself valuable power town?

Evil George Washington wrote: Would like to see Madge do what she promised.
I don’t think it’s going to happen. This is the least interested I have ever seen Madge in actually contributing to a game.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Do you really think scum-buddies would be so obvious in having matching reads?
You’re totally right. Thank you for pointing out that scum would never do that, so you obviously can’t be scum. :roll:

I don’t have time to read any more before work. I’ll be home at 6:00 pm PDT.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:04 pm UTC

@Zen:

1) Madgehammer: I am against stumping Madge today. Her strength is supposed to be claim analysis and town leader EGW has ordained that D4 we will mass claim (in the same post where he declares we'll stump Madge :? ). I propose we let Madge live until then. Let her prove her worth on the claims. If you still want to stump her, do it D4 instead of D3.

2) Red Ryu: I agree that his switch to LaserGuy is surprisingly quick. I could vote for Red Ryu.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:15 pm UTC

Allright, my time is up.

I'll be reading along on my phone. Please lynch BoomFrog.

@Zen, I haven't read all your reads yet but might do so in the coming hours.

@bessie: protecting someone from the lynch with that power and forcing no-lynch aren't pro-town applications of jimbob's power. btw, you realise I'm strictly talking about a town!jimbob scenario here right? Not because I'm convinced he's town, but because that's the hypothetical we're discussing.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:33 pm UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Reads:

Key
Spoiler:
Tone: This is kind of a difficult term to describe, but it is basically the vibe you get from someone. The initial feel you get when reading their posts. Townie tone is generally loose and free. Scummy tone is generally rigid and convoluted.
Speculation: This is all circumstantial and I don't consider it when making my reads. Circumstantial points should only ever be used when the criteria that would make them valid, (aka evidence), are brought to light.
Speculation (for funzies): This is speculation that we will never have evidence for, at least until the game ends.
Town/Mafia/Indy Percent: This is just a numeral indicator (out of 100) of how strongly/unstrongly I feel about a read.


Town

Boom
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Tone (Goal-Oriented).
-Read Progression.
-Read Alignment.
-Unique, insightful points.
-Not asking questions simply for the sake of asking, but actually cares about the responses.

Townie Percent: 90

Note & Speculation: If plytho or Ruy is scum, Boom's town percent drops to 60-70. If both are scum, it's quite likely that Boom is as well. plytho and Ruy have both undergone significant changes in tone at different points. I don't think anyone in the game but Boom has the mind type for this level of coaching (aside from myself :mrgreen:). Perhaps bessie does? I don't have anything to draw on to determine her "chessmastery". She's the only one I haven't been able to get a sense of this for.

plytho, D3, has changed his wall-battle responses (scum meta) to non-nonchalant one-liners. Ruy, early D1, seemed to know points that I wouldn't think he'd have picked up on, given how blatant it was that he was hard core skimming. So I suspect that he was being given some tl;drs privately. Late D1, his tone underwent a dramatic shift. It was like early d1 and late d1 Ruy were two different people. Interestingly, plytho, having Ruy as his supposed top scum read, gave this as his reason for voting gamma instead. plytho was quite flimsy on his Ryu read D1. Again, he claimed that Ruy was his top scum read, but strayed his vote away from him when it came down to it. ((btw if people are curious about my continuous misspelling , 'Ruy' isn't a typo; it's a nickname. I know, quite creative.))

Also interestingly, immediately after I start to push Ryu to SirG hammer, plytho comes at us with this. And adamantly argues against the SirG plan thereafter. Boom, who was the one who started the SirG plan, backs down from it in his next post.

Oh btw, let's take a look at that last link again. Ruy was Boom's top scum read, but he omitted him from his top 4 list. Why? Well this was the current tally at the time of his post:

Code: Select all

Red Ryu         7
Moody           6
Gamma Emerald   6
SirGabriel      3
Dark Horse      3
Spak            2
BoomFrog        2
jimbob          1


So, I have two theories, depending on whether or not there is one or two scum teams.

One scum team: Around the time when moody posted the tally above (and Boom's subsequent moody vote) is when scum decided to save Red and commit to bussing moody (Reason probably being that Red has a stronger PR + moody's history of not surviving very long anyway). I never realized just how late Boom actually was to the moody push. Early on the official wagon, late on the push.

Two scum teams: Team B consists of Boom, plytho, and Ruy. Team M consists of moody and jim (or moody, jim, x). plytho and Boom were trying to distance from Ruy before, but as it was becoming more likely that Ruy was going to be lynched, based on the vote tally, they decided to pivot to moody / save Ruy as the opportunity presented itself.

Both of these theories are supported by the fact that plytho makes his switch from Ryu to gamma within minutes of Boom's post.


bessie
Spoiler:

What I like:
-The crumb she left for PW to use if she were to die. I think this is the strongest point in bessie's favor. GFbessie would not need to inform PW of this.

Quote:
Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Sabrar, you missed one. Do you want me to give it to you or would you rather try to find it yourself?
I suck at finding even obvious breadcrumbs (Bin Chicken was an eye-opener) and don't really have the time to look for it. Please point it out.
Oh well, as previously stated somewhere in this game I suck at bread crumbs, that’s why I rarely leave them or find them (and I usually don’t even bother to look for them). I made the effort this time because I wanted to leave something for Peaceful Whale to point to if I was night killed.
From my D2 town-scum list:
bessie wrote: town
bessie
Peaceful Whale
Evil George Washington
Every game where I’ve been a mason I’ve put my mason partner’s name next to mine in my list. I thought Peaceful Whale’s change in position from D1 would be enough that if I was dead and his claim wasn’t believed, he could point to it and say bessie said she’s done this before. And I told him if an xkcder pushed against this to call them scummy for it.

I wrote this in the D2 final hour voting frenzy.
bessie wrote:I'm trying to write some replies to content I missed but not getting very far, now I'm lost on where we are with voting. Evil George Washington, you're my strongest town read, where should I vote?
I’m kind of disappointed Sabrar never asked me about this comment, because it was written with him in mind. I expected someone on D3 to point out that PW, not EGW, was my strongest town read. To which my answer was going to be that PW wasn’t a read.


Things I find Questionable:
-Her town read of me D1 and so forth. Bessie put me in her interesting pile D1 and then never really got around to looking at me further. Despite this, I somehow ended up pretty high in her reads post. bessie has claimed that she doesn't do tone reads, so I don't know where this came from. I kept waiting for her to go into it, but she never did. It wasn't until D3 that she really posted a reason for her town read of me, but it doesn't really seem like a strong reason to me.
-Her jimbob read D1 & D2. This is the same as above, but on the opposite spectrum. Bessie doesn't really go into why she thinks jimbob is scum. I kept waiting for this, but it never came.

Things I DON'T find Questionable:
-Her postponing her read / analysis on Sabrar. Unlike with the two above, it didn't feel like she was pulling a Sabrar read out of no where. This is why I didn't mention him when I initially made the point about bessie surfing over some people.

Town Percent: 85
Mafia Percent: 15

Note & Speculation: If there are two teams, bessie could be on Team M. If there are two teams AND the night kill alternates, I think it is even more likely that bessie is on team M. It's odd to me that scum decided to kill PW Night 2, but not Night 1, when it was obvious that he was an investigative by early D1. This, coupled with how weird bessie was wrt PWs claim, causes me suspect that bessie wanted to draw PW's investigation and then kill him to clear herself.


Sabrar
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Really townie tone.
-Reaction to Spak lynch feels legit.
-Keeps scum read of me no matter how much I try to buddy him or how much the winds change wrt other people's view of me. This strongly suggests genuineness.

Things I find Questionable:
-Sabrar has so far addressed, to my satisfaction, all the things I had found questionable.

Townie Percent: 85

Note: If there is one team AND jim is not mafia, then Sabrar becomes semi-confirmed town to me since he was the one to get George to swing back to moody D1, the pivoting point of the moody > jim .


EGW
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Tone (Authoritative)
-Frontliner
-Very open

Things I find Questionable:
-Some reads have been far-fetched imo (Sabrar read early D1. DH Read D1. Boom read early D2. Zen-Spak Read D2. Sabrar read D3). I feel like Ran has been on way too high alert and reading into things that just aren't there. This is really peculiar to me because our thoughts usually overlap.
-Assumed to know how know-it-all and Megaman's powers work.

Odd / Notable, but doesn't really warrant suspicion:
-"Game Changing Reads" phrasing. I've never seen Ran ego-boast like this.

Townie Percent: 85
Indy Percent: 15


mpolo
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Giving town control of his role.
-Willingness to be judgement hammerer. This move didn't feel like a bluff, because it wasn't unprompted like Laser's was. mpolo voted as a direct reaction to my argument that he should do so (bottom of this post). His vote. It was just so ladidadi. This point is invalidated if Laser is mafia, since Laser later Judgement voted behind mpolo. As buds, mpolo could Judgement vote without worry, since he'd know his partner would eventually vote.

Townie Percent: 70

Note: If Laser scum, town:mafia becomes 55:45.


Frozen
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Tone is townie af.
-Is me with an afro.

Things I find Questionable:
-Blatant skimming coupled with no motive to look for things he's curious about. This can be seen throughout this post, particularly the very last line about my claim.
-His reasoning for town reading jim. That being: jim is town reading Frozen while everyone else is scumspecting him. Frozen town reading (or rather non-playing) jim for this is absurd. In the very same post that Frozen non-plays jim for defending him, he makes the argument to Zen on why scum might do this:

He's saying in the context that everyone was finding Gamma scummy, which they were right about but didn't KNOW they were right about, a scum player has motive to be the one who holds out and goes against the grain, BETTING on the fact that his knowledge that the slot being pushed isn't scum aligned and thus is likely to be town will payoff for him as town points when everyone else looks bad for shoving a mislynch down everyone's throat.


Frozen is aware that scum has motivation to go against the grain in a situation like this, but that is the very basis of his change in heart on jim?:

I've been pretty hot and cold on both jimbob & boomfrog all game but jimbob stuck out his neck for me in a way I doubt any scum would ever do so that pushed him into non plays.

Jimbob sticking his neck out for me here is pretty damn townie IMO. If he's scum I'm an easy fucking mislynch since everyone wants my nuts strung up for being lazy despite 3-4 other slots being just as culpable if not moreso.


Things I DONT find Questionable:
-His activity. This is NAI, especially for Frozen, who often falls behind a bit. I'm actually very satisfied that he's been making the effort to stay caught up in this behemoth of a game.
-His strategy of getting rid of unknowns and fodder early on (and therefore potentially keeping around suspects that are active and involved). I agree with this strategy. Not going to argue about it in game. What's important is that this is a strategy that Frozen consistently plays by, so it's completely NAI.
-His wall/thoroughly-going-over-a-point posting style. Again NAI. Just the way he posts. As he said, this can be seen from his posts in DT.

Speculation: Early push on jim D1 seemed to come from no where. This had caught my attention D1 and I've looked over those two posts a dozen times since. I don't see see it as even remotely suspicious that Jim didn't commit to a PW read on page 3. When I first saw this, my initial impression was that it was bussing/distancing. But around Frozen's 4th or so post, I started to like his content, so I thought that maybe townFrozen had some sort of insight on the jimbob slot. That idea proved wrong when Frozen started to unsuspect jim at the end of the Day for reasoning that was just as poor as the reasoning for his suspicion in the first place. Coming into D2, I still liked Frozen's play overall, so I put this point in my diary and only intended to bring it up on a jim scum flip (indicated in reads post here). The Ruy-Frozen-Laser connections that Laser pointed out in his reads post adds more weight to the sketchiness of this relationship. In a two-team universe, Frozen is definitely a contender for Team M.

Speculation (for funziez): Frozen made a big show about how OS wouldn't put lynchers, jesters, or survivors in the game. All of three of these have turned out to be in the game. It's possible that moody knew this from his role; and so scumBudFrozen made those posts in order to point to later to indicate his ignorance of the setup.

Townie Percent: 50 (dat tone yo)
Mafia Percent: 50


Yolinda
-


Madge
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Townie tone.

Questionable things:
-Knew SirG being hammered was considered a kill.

Condemning things:
-Actively not trying to help sort things out.
-Avoided claiming alignment in claim post.
-Advocated for town-friendlyness of indies.

Indy Percent: 70
Townie Percent: 30


plytho
Spoiler:

Note: plytho, plytho, plytho. Sigh. This read has fluctuated the most out of anyone. I initially had him at 70%. Reviewing him brought up some things I found questionable, which brought the percent down. I asked him about them here and he completely answered them to my satisfaction. I was happy to keep him in my town reads until that darn Yolinda post.

What I like:
-Frontliner.
-Unique, insightful points.
-Detailed reading and rereading of the game.

Things I find Questionable:
-The comment he made about Yolinda, here. It's not so much the fact that he finds Yolinda's absence suspicious, but the fact that he found him so suspicious that he didn't think Yo could be redeemed if he started posting. This is some serious murkying up the waters. Not even Ran, who always reads into inactivity, would say this. Ran just wants Yolinda to post. He doesn't think that there's nothing Yolinda could say that could make him town read him.

I wanted to determine whether or not plytho was intentionally being dense or if he honestly just couldn't see how his read was flawed. I tested his logical aptitude with that chain of back-n-forths, and he did eventually concede (here). The fact that plytho could come to understand this through that discussion, indicates to me that he very likely understood it to begin with, and that I simply backed him into a logic corner where he was forced to concede. This is opposed to someone such as Ran, who, despite my many efforts to explain this to him throughout our time playing together, still disagrees with me.

Odd / Notable, but doesn't really warrant suspicion:
-plytho seems to pick up and is able to speculate on things really quickly. Some of his speculation seems like it's coming from an informed mindset (such as his vote manipulation speculation). This was suspicious to me at first, but I've come to realize that plytho is actually just abnormally smart.

Mafia Percent: 55
Townie Percent: 45


jim
Spoiler:

What I like:
-Early scum read on moody. He was on moody way before the winds turned toward that direction.
-This line: "Summary - although there are definitely some weird, scummy points in BoomFrog's content, and I feel like I could manufacture a case for him being scum if I had to, I don't think he is". This feels so townie to me. I don't feel like scum!jim would say how he could manufacture a case.

Things I find Questionable:
-Awkward word usage. The stuff I pointed out in my D1 reads post.
-D2 his analysis of me consisted mostly of townie points, but his conclusions went against that. It came off to me like he was forcing his read on me. I don't think he ever addressed this concern of mine.
-His reasoning for town reading Frozen. That being: Frozen made some off-hand remark toward moody misreading Frozen's post. This is just as absurd of a reason to town read Frozen as Frozen's reason was to non-play jim.

Speculation (for funziez): jim thought that moody was posting more than usual because he was also talking to him privately.

Mafia Percent: 55
Town Percent: 20
Indy Percent: 25

Note: Honestly, this is the first time I've really dug into jim since D1, and he's not looking as bad as I thought at all. His Frozen reasoning is the most questionable thing.

I've also come to the conclusion that Laser's jim-Ruy speculation is most likely incorrect. Reason being: Jim's role is clearly anti-town. The only reason I could see maifa!jim claiming this is if the team made the decision to go full on bus mode. Ryu, however, is reading jim's claim as null and is making no moves to push jim. Ruy is very unlikely to be jim's bud. Furthermore, looking over jim's early Day 1, he had Ruy as a scum read pretty early on and was consistent with it. If Ruy is mafia AND there is 1 team, jim's mafia percent drops to 10.


Laser
Spoiler:

What I like:
-His theories seem like things that a townie deeply digging into the game would come up with. For example, his post on me D2 and his most recent Frozen, jim, and Ryu reads.

Things I find Questionable:
-His Gamma read. Only found Gamma town because of those that were pushing him. He was that confident in his scum reads? Clearly he wasn't, based on how much he's been shiftin'.
-Half-ass attempt to swing things to Frozen after coming to town read Zen. When Zen doesn't join him, he makes a half-ass attempt at plytho. When he's not joined there, he gets shifty on his Zen read. btw he said his Frozen read came from rereading Frozen at my request. I never requested this wtf?
-He agreeing with Ran's Spak-Zen theory. Edging Ran on. ((I betcha he would have agreed with Ran's Sabrar theory had the wind gone that way :roll: ))
-Voted over mpolo on Judgment hammer with absolutely no prompt to do so. A bluff if I've ever seen one. It's not likely town was gonna prefer him being the hammerer instead of someone else.

Mafia Percent: 65


Ruy
Spoiler:

What I like:
- Lynching / pushing scummy people.
- Putting effort into reading.

Things I find Questionable:
-Hard pushing for a SirG lynch D1 without an idea on who to have hammer. Avoided answering to that point every time I asked him.
-Agreed to LaserGuy quick lynch. All of Ryu's reads lists since Laser joined the game can be found on this page. He has Laser as a town read in every one of them. And he is indicating a town read of Laser throughout all his posts that mention him. Saying things as "I like Laser's this. I like Laser's that. Laser be town bros with me!". If you look at the next page, you'll see that Ryu never had any thought progression for his change in Laser read. He simply gives some vague reasoning before agreeing with the opportunity I provided. It makes no sense for townRuy to have pounced on the opportunity for a Laser quick lynch.

Mafia Percent: 75

Scum


I didn't give a direct answer other than someone should, I gave a reason for not myself.

I also misread that quote it seems, I was referring to making madge stump or lynching her, not lynching laser.

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:33 pm UTC

Thought I would have time to finish my read on plytho uninterrupted. Work interfered. Will be online in 4 hours or so, here's my hurried stance on things.

plytho: I think his content improves D3 though there are a couple of arguments where he seems wrong. Also I'm looking at this suspiciously, feels like he wants to feel out the wind before he commits to a particular scum-read. Puts a significant effort into his latest read on BoomFrog, providing handy links (unlike jimbob earlier). I'm not sure what all that effort tells about him but if BoomFrog is scum plytho is probably town (unless craziness like 2 teams or jimbob,BF,plytho all bussing each other).
Also agree with him about stumping Madge, definitely not today, can look at it tomorrow. Somehow plytho doesn't feel like having buddies, he fights in too many directions at once. Slight town.

TOWN
bessie
Madge
Laserguy
EGW
BoomFrog
plytho
Zen
mpolo
Red Ryu
FF
jimbob
SCUM

mod's problem: Yolinda

Above is before factoring in plytho's case against BoomFrog as I don't have the time right now to read through the timeline.

wrt Ryu: I think Zen is downplaying the 'vague reasons' for the switch but it's very hard to tell because Ryu simply does not share his thoughts. He's already in my top4 so would have no problem with the lynch.

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#HBC | Zyth
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:40 pm UTC

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:I also misread that quote it seems, I was referring to making madge stump or lynching her, not lynching laser.

If that were true, you wouldn't have made the post about Laser going down on your reads in the post before.

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#HBC | Red Ryu
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:53 pm UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:I also misread that quote it seems, I was referring to making madge stump or lynching her, not lynching laser.

If that were true, you wouldn't have made the post about Laser going down on your reads in the post before.


dislike =/= want to lynch right at that moment.

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#HBC | Red Ryu
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:58 pm UTC

I've disliked his change of reads going into the end of day 2 and today, did I post direct changes with my thoughts, actually yes when laser asked about it.

I did like the laser slot eariler, did like him when he opposed lynch gamma for no reason and I believe I pressed him and others on this.

I said this at the end of day 2,

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:So that happened after I fell asleep.

Reads are mostly the same as before only zen in town lean and laser guy down a bit in me liking the slot but not into scum category.

Will wait for flips for now.


Specifically because his reads and posts were not jiving with me.

I have disliked lasers posts going into day 3 and what he has posted that I did read in particular the post you made on it with his mindset.

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#HBC | Red Ryu
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:08 pm UTC

Didn't like him for opposing gamma lynch*

spelling is hard.

Either way, I have not been as clear on it, I do not blame you, but read the gamma stuff I posted on day 2 and how laser reacted to opposing it.

I was turning on him from being less favorable towards the end of day 2 and today.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:50 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:On why I didn't claim D1, it's the same reason why you don't claim VT D1 - it directs the scum kill onto more valuable townies.


The only way your role has any value to town is if you claim though. What benefit do you feel town gets out of claiming now that you wouldn't have for got by claiming D1?

Can you explain your reasoning in more detail of how you felt it would benefit town, rather than you personally, by using your power to prevent your lynch tomorrow?

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:08 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:The two scum team theory was only relevant D2 as far as people interacted with moody in a way I saw could not come from a scum buddy (or would only come from a scum buddy). Why didn't I comment on it over other people? I can't say for certain (I made those reads a long time ago), but a) in many cases, it wasn't relevant, and b) in those where it could be, due to them pushing moody over me, either their wealth of other content drowned out any relevance here, or it simply didn't occur to me when I made that read (a quick skim of my read of EGW suggests the latter). I don't think considering the potential of a second scum team would have had any effect on my town read of most players though (e.g. EGW had plenty of other reasons for being town).


How could your views on the setup not influence your reads? The presence of a second scum team is going to invariably change the way that players interact with each other. If you believed this to be true, I have a really hard time believing it didn't even occur to you to even speculate on who might be on which team.

I thought I said earlier today that I no longer consider two teams likely. That was a conclusion around the start of D3 given apparent strength of powers and the lack of any sign of a second team.


And this hasn't affected your reads at All?

LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:The problem I have reading jimbob as scum here is that he comes to almost the same conclusions I do.


Yeah, it's funny how that works. Almost as if you guys were able to talk about things together.


Do you really think scum-buddies would be so obvious in having matching reads?


This is WIFOM.

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#HBC | Zyth
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:11 pm UTC

Ryu, another reason why I'm finding it difficult to believe: why did you have Laser as scum in your most recent reads list? You said that Laser went down for you but that he wasn't in the scum pile. Yet in your most recent reads list, he is.

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#HBC | Zyth
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:15 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:quote ping

#HBC | Zyth wrote:I still believe Madge should hammer. I'd like for everyone, in their next post, to (1) commit to a side on this and (2) give your opinion on the point I made against Ryu.

@Laser

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:39 pm UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:quote ping

#HBC | Zyth wrote:I still believe Madge should hammer. I'd like for everyone, in their next post, to (1) commit to a side on this and (2) give your opinion on the point I made against Ryu.


@Laser


Your point on Red Ryu is a good one. As I noted in my earlier read on him, he seems happy to jump around to whatever wagon is convenient without good reason. This is one of the things I had in mind when I said that. I'm pretty sure Ryu is scum, but given the choice, I'd absolutely prefer to go after jimbob today though. His power is basically as strong as an extra kill for scum. Much too dangerous to keep him around.

I'd kind of like to keep Madge active for today as long as she votes with town. I was hoping she might help me test a claim tonight and I don't know if it will work if she's stumped. Will get to that in my next post. I can probably have someone else to do it, but Madge is convenient because I don't believe that there's any chance she will be night killed.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby mpolo » Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:46 pm UTC

@Zyth: I agree with your read of Ryu. For me, the complete concentration on indies to the exclusion of scum hunting is even worse. But he does seem somewhat abrupt in switching his opinion on LaserGuy.

As to Madge:
I think she's about 50% townie, 50% indie. From everything we know about her, winning as an indie seems totally impossible for her, since no one is inclined to activate her powers. As a result, I'm reading her as "harmless", and don't see trying to make the game less enjoyable for her as a positive net result.
Image <-- Evil experiment

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby FrozenFlame » Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:17 pm UTC

I can't believe deadline is already today. Fuck me man, I've really dropped the ball

As much as I would love to continue to be in this game and have a chance at redemption it's pretty clear I haven't earned that chance at all so I won't even be salty if you all decide to lynch me. My role, though a strong one, I've totally squandered with my poor town play this game and so frankly even though in a vacuum lynching me would be a pretty big loss, given my performance this game my ability is unlikely to come into play.

I have to drive to NJ for a wedding pretty much as soon as I get out of work and so I won't be able to post anything meaningful though I will try to keep my phone handy tonight so I can check in before deadline and help y'all get to a lynch if need be.

I haven't been able to do the rereading I need to to make any major adjustments to my provided reads earlier so I stand by them. Willing to throw my vote on any wagon on the players in my "can go" section.

@ Zyth: wanted to address your whole "why are you townreading jim for defending you when you said earlier that scum have something to gain by defending townies for town cred when they flip town after the rest of the game forced the mislynch." How I distinguish what jim is doing is that he is defending me prior to any real wagon starting on me and is just giving me a townread based on points, albeit minor ones, that no one else even bothered to pick up on. He could have chosen to completely ignore whatever remotely town actions I've taken and go with the flow to help build momentum for my wagon. He didn't though. He stuck out his neck for me BEFORE everyone was trying to shove my lynch down everyone's throat. It's not like he only started defending me once my wagon started growing and there was a real imminent risk of my lynch. He went out of his way to give me credit before I was even in the lead as lynch consideration. That's the big difference. Scum I feel I more likely to grandstand against a growing wagon on a townie because they know that despite their grandstanding, because consensus has more or less already been reached on that slot which is why the wagon is growing, the wagon is still likely to be successful. Therefore, they get all the credit for defending a townie and working against a mislynch without having to worry about the risk that they might derail that very mislynch, which they actually want to have happen but just dont want to be blamed for. Jim's defense of me was so early on that it very well could have served as the kernel for rebuttal to the possibility of wagoning me. He ran the real risk, if he's scum, of derail my mislynch before the wagon had any chance to build momentum.

It might seem like I'm splitting hairs but that's legitimately how I feel about it. Timing is everything in mafia IMO, especially when you're playing as scum. Jimbobs early defense of me doesn't seem to fit the timing that I think a mafiat would choose to proffer a defense. They'd wait until the wagon was really moving and then jump in closer to the end to protest, secretly hoping that their protest has no effect on the wagon.

If people have specific questions for me I'll do my best to try to answer them but please keep them simple. If answering your question is going to require me to go back and read pages of posts for context in order to give you an accurate answer then chances are I'm not going to have the opportunity to answer it.

Vote: Boomfrog

Going to park my vote here for now because this slot is my strongest gut scum read that isn't just based off inactivity. Hoping we can get a wagon together though before deadline, and if you guys string me up I hope you all can learn a lot from my flip and interactions.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:19 pm UTC

#HBC | Zyth wrote:Ryu, another reason why I'm finding it difficult to believe: why did you have Laser as scum in your most recent reads list? You said that Laser went down for you but that he wasn't in the scum pile. Yet in your most recent reads list, he is.

Yea because an entire day went by and I have been disliking his answers

In fact one of your own posts made me rethink and consider what he was doing when I read it.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:
LaserGuy wrote: In fact, this was particularly vexing to me because I had been thinking about voting Spak for awhile at that point. Nobody was interested in plytho or FrozenFlame and Spak was my next strongest read, but I was waiting for you to ask me because I knew BoomFrog was uncomfortable wagoning with me, and I thought he might back off if I voted for Spak unprompted.
This doesn't seem like townie thinking to me.


@EVERYONE: As town, have you ever not voted a scum read because you felt it would make one of your town reads not vote that player?

I'm sorry this is just not town.

Side Note: The more plytho defends you, the more I'm starting to think he's actually scum.

@bessie: jim, plytho, Laser scum amiright?

Image


Furthermore, Laser, I don't see why you would drop your scum reads because no one was joining you. Why would you not try to get more out of your scum reads or push them further? You were changing your views to whatever was convenient.

And I'm sorry, I don't see why someone who knew their own alignment would try and take the hit over someone who's alignment they didn't know in this case. mpolo was going to be the judgement hammerer, but you randomly decided to take the hit over him. This would make sense if mpolo was a strong town read for everyone or he had some super useful role, but neither of these is the case. You say that he was townier than you, but it's not the case. He's pretty null overall and getting rid of the slot would have been useful imo. I think you were just doing this to get townie points. Show that you were willing to sacrifice yourself. This is scum motivated to me. Also I suspect that you might not have died even if you were the hammerer. Interesting that plytho keeps trying to convince me otherwise.

--

Yeah, I'm liking bessie's EoD post and the observations she made on plytho and jim and madge. Disliking Laser more n more. Would like to lynch Laser today and have Madge hammer. Madge needs to be the hammerer today regardless of who we lynch.


I've been considering laserguy since this post and have been thinking what his motivation and priorities are in terms of his thought process.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:22 pm UTC

Madge is only me on it?

Town what is wrong with you, either that slot stumps or we lynch it. Unless people are really super sure jim is mafia and he is gonna alpha with his ability.

Is that worth Madge always sitting in the game until lylo as well?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:48 pm UTC

Been mulling this over for most of the day, going to claim my night result.

I had a night interaction with plytho last night. This is a bit weird to me because I was supposed to be immune in the night due to judgment, but apparently it didn't apply in this instance (I checked with YOLO and he said it was okay, so dunno). Anyway, plytho has an ability that allows him to gain private chat with someone who voted for him previously. Since I voted for him D2, we now have chat, though the chat didn't give us any alignment indications so it's not all that useful.

This has bothered me a bit in a couple of different ways:
-Peaceful Whale already had a method to form a chat group. Having another such role on townside seems a bit suspect to me.
-plytho has led me to believe that his ability can recruit many people into chat. I found it odd that he didn't try to take advantage of this sooner by asking some of his townreads for votes, and he was extremely resistant to this idea when I proposed it. As of right now though, the only other person he can recruit is bessie, who I am reasonably certain will never interact with him, but he seems okay with this rather than looking for better alternatives. bessie is also a somewhat likely nightkill target, so recruiting her may be a moot point.
-He hasn't really made any efforts to try to convince me he's town, so I don't really understand why he bothered to bring me into chat in the first place.

I have a suspicion that plytho has lied to me about his ability and I want to try to verify plytho's claim that his ability is multi use. I figure the easiest way to do this is to have Madge vote for plytho (you can unvote right away, it doesn't need to be an end of day vote), since I'm pretty much positive that Madge will not be night killed. If anyone else has a burning desire to join plytho and I in chat, I guess you can vote for him too before switching back to your current target, though presumably plytho can only target one person per night.

Madge wrote:QuotePing Madge


@Madge: Can you switch your vote to plytho? You can unvote right away if you want.

I'll try to post a condensed chatlog shortly.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:01 pm UTC

Hmm... can information from chat logs actually be posted? Hold on, need to check with YOLO.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:05 pm UTC

LaserGuy makes a very good point about not letting scum!jimbob use his ability. Zen should receive BoomFrog and Red Ryu, that seems to offer the best result.

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle

Ninja'd: @LaserGuy: you should be able to paraphrase it.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:08 pm UTC

What is the current vote count?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:16 pm UTC

Unofficial votals:

jimbob (4): BoomFrog, LaserGuy, bessie, Sabrar
BoomFrog (2): plytho, FrozenFlame
Madge (1): Red Ryu
Red Ryu (1): Zyth

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:27 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:LaserGuy makes a very good point about not letting scum!jimbob use his ability. Zen should receive BoomFrog and Red Ryu, that seems to offer the best result.

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle

Ninja'd: @LaserGuy: you should be able to paraphrase it.
I'm down with this.

Vote: jimbob

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:47 pm UTC

In the interest of time, I can't go through in detail to make sure I've responded to everything, but I have looked back through the past few pages and tried to cover everything there. If there's anything specific that I didn't respond to, please ping me, and I'll address it.

@Zyth - going to re-read Madge, if I get time after my current top scum reads, but I agree with others - no great reason to stump her today, and with the presumed additional claims tomorrow, we give her a chance with the information available. I don't believe we'll be at LYLO tomorrow, so there's another day at least for us to decide. Even if it is LYLO, it's not disastrous - if we decide that Madge needs to hammer, and she refuses, chances are we're lynching scum anyway, so we lynch them, and then we lynch Madge the day after. I'll also be re-reading Red Ryu shortly, probably in my next post.

@bessie - as plytho said, it's my feeling that my power is only of very limited use, and has the potential to be disastrous to town, if I use it wrongly. As a result, I consider it a weak power (I consider the chances of disaster being significantly high to not be worth the risk). You are right that it does have a non-negligble game effect, just not necessarily a beneficial one, in my opinion.

Regarding this question:
bessie wrote:So did you always consider yourself a vanilla level townie, or at the time you made this post did you consider yourself valuable power town?
I'm not sure what you're getting at here. I consider myself to be a very weak power for town. However, I do not believe that scum are going to kill me tonight, if I survive the lynch, because they may think there's still a good chance of mislynching me in subsequent days, based on the same arguments, therefore my previous argument for not claiming is no longer applicable.

On why I was tempted to use it to protect myself from tomorrow's lynch, I'm assuming that I will pick at least one scum. If we successfully identify that scum and lynch them, this should give me a significant amount of townie credit - scum!me would be unlikely to choose a scum buddy and town voluntarily. Given the town cred, I then hopefully don't get mislynched subsequently either. Also, there's a chance that somebody will get a night result that will somehow clear me, or I manage to improve my play sufficiently so that fewer people find me scummy.

LaserGuy wrote:The only way your role has any value to town is if you claim though. What benefit do you feel town gets out of claiming now that you wouldn't have for got by claiming D1?

Can you explain your reasoning in more detail of how you felt it would benefit town, rather than you personally, by using your power to prevent your lynch tomorrow?
The above paragraph should answer your second question. As to your first one, it's less the benefits, more the damage to town that early claiming would have done, that I was concerned about. I believe I've outlined this with my comments about similarity to VT D1 claims.

@LaserGuy, Sabrar - since you are both concerned that scum!me might save the ability for end game, why would scum!me claim this power now?

If town are concerned about scum!me saving my ability to game end, then I'm happy to use it as directed by town before then.

Regarding setup influencing my reads - at least in big games, with lots of unknown variables, I'm not a massive one for drawing up connections between players, except where they are already confirmed aligned one way or another. For a good example why, see my D2 thoughts on a Gamma/Zyth team previously, proven wrong by Gamma's indie flip. My belief that Zyth was scum was partially influenced by my read on Gamma. Another good example is that there's clearly strong connections between me and plytho, and me and FrozenFlame, to an independent onlooker, but I know that there isn't anything actually from my side, so people trying to draw conclusions from that are mistaken (assuming that there's no one-sided relationships).

@LaserGuy - How would you expect my reads to have changed D3, given my current belief of one scum team? It has actually affected how I've played so far today - with 1 team, I think 5 scum is more likely than 6, total, so that's why I focused on trying to get my pool down to 4 people early on. I probably won't even bother looking again at some of my stronger town reads today.

@BoomFrog - why did you want me to claim my role name?
@bessie - why was it interesting that BoomFrog asked me? Or did you want the answer too, and if so why?

Reads of my top picks to follow later.

Also, just pointing out that this is currently L-2.
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:58 pm UTC

Vote: LaserGuy

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:01 pm UTC

WTF?

What are you doing Zen?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:03 pm UTC

Hopefully this is okay.

plytho-LaserGuy chatlog, paraphrased:
Spoiler:
-plytho welcomes me, explains his ability. He can chat with anyone who votes with him. Nobody voted him D1, choices D2 were me bessie and Gamma (dead). He doesn't trust bessie and she doesn't trust him, so thought that I would be a better bet even though I didn't trust him.
-plytho posts this.
-I say this ability looks townie, but I don't trust plytho. I post my read here
-I am confused about how he was able to target me. Confer with YOLO. plytho explains that his ability ignores immunities.
-I ask plytho how he intends to use chat since we don't trust each other.
-I ask plytho if he had chat D1.
-plytho isn't sure what to do with the thread yet, suggests it will help us read each other better, and that we can chat during the night.
-plytho explains that he didn't have chat D1 because his ability is triggered by votes, and he didn't have any until D2.
-plytho asks for feedback on this post
-I reply here
-I ask what plytho would do if we could establish that we were town.
-plytho isn't sure since he hasn't had a townie chat before, thinks maybe we can talk about things that we don't want scum to know. Asks me about cross-crumbing since I'd mentioned this in Fridge Mafia
-I comment that I haven't had a townie chat either, explain cross-crumbing
-I suggest recruiting Sabrar into chat since with both agree on him being townie and he seems to be reading us as townie.
-plytho says he doesn't want to act deliberately scummy to attract votes
-I suggest that we could just ask Sabrar to vote/unvote
-I ask him to help me read EGW. I point to EGW's two cases on BoomFrog and his case on me being pretty bad. Ask why plytho isn't seeing anything scummy.
-plytho doesn't want to draw attention to himself by asking for a vote. Isn't sure Sabrar is reading him as town. Admits he has mostly been giving EGW and Sabrar a pass because he liked how they interacted with the moody wagon. Suspicious of BoomFrog so likes EGW's case, though admits it is a bit weak in places. Doesn't understand Spak-Zyth connection.
-I ask him to read jimbob instead, especially his interactions with FrozenFlame.
-I then comment on EGW's case on Sabrar/Madge/bessie/Frozen and that it seems absurd, but I feel better about EGW because I don't see how it could come from scum.
-plytho agrees that EGW case isn't likely from scum. Interested by this post from Sabrar. Had a theory that Madge was megaman, but then goes on to say it doesn't actually make sense.
-plytho provides a list of all claimed powers, living and dead, comments that Madge isn't paying attention if she's only picked up mpolo/Madge.
-Agrees that jimbob/Frozen connection seems fishy, but doesn't necessarily imply scumbuddies.
-I comment that I wish I could trust him. Note that my scum pool is moody + {Frozen, jimbob, Ryu, plytho, heury}, heury could possibly be cleared, and if there's 5 scum plytho is one of them.
-plytho agrees that trust is an issue as chat makes us biased to read each other as town. Provides his lynch pool and comments that we have overlap on Frozen/Red.
-plytho suggests he is okay with bessie joining chat since we both agree she is town and won't be afraid to share with her, though bessie will be cautious.
-Adds Zyth's diary to list of claims
-I disagree about bessie on the grounds that she will never trust plytho and won't use the chat.
-plytho says that bessie can talk to me, and if he dies, the chat will still be available for us. Believes that us being in chat will confirm that at least one of us is town to bessie.
-I ask plytho if he would be willing to get BoomFrog in the chat.
-plytho asks why.
-I explain that BoomFrog is a strong townread for me, is reading is both as town at present, and I feel is more likely than Sabrar to go along with voting for plytho without asking too many questions. Admit that this option requires plytho to trust my read on Boom. Comment that under present circumstances, the only person we can recruit is bessie, who isn't going to be helpful unless plytho can get himself cleared.
-plytho believes asking for votes will attract a lot of suspicion, believes we should get bessie now and then others if we mass claim tomorrow.
-I shelve the issue of asking for votes for later, ask him if he wants to lynch jimbob.
-plytho isn't sure, thinking about jimbob's power. Strong for scum since it can move LYLO. Possibly a balancing power to mine? Comments that it's unlikely scum would have both my power and jimbob's, possible that both are town or one of each.
-I ask plytho how he would use jimbob's power if he had it.
-plytho suggests asking for consensus, but admits power is anti-town.
-Asks for case on jimbob, I provide him these posts: 1, 2, 3, 4.
-plytho posts this
-I comment that his post made me notice something (jimbob not figuring two scumteams into his reads)
-plytho asks what I noticed (I haven't replied)

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:10 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@LaserGuy, Sabrar - since you are both concerned that scum!me might save the ability for end game, why would scum!me claim this power now?
Pressure getting to you? Also wine.

@LaserGuy: nice read, thanks.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby mpolo » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:15 pm UTC

At L-2, do you want me to join in now, or do you have the votes you need? (Don't want to cause hammer before everyone's ready.) But if there's no answer in a minute or two, I'm going to have to put down my vote.
Image <-- Evil experiment

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:16 pm UTC

Zen moved away, your vote would be L-2.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:18 pm UTC

I will be around for about two more hours. After that I probably won't be around until after deadline. Will check in if I can.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby mpolo » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:20 pm UTC

Not my most favored target, but the ability is anti-town and dangerous. But he is #5 on my list…

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle

Red Ryu's point about LaserGuy is reasonable, even though I don't really trust Red Ryu.
Image <-- Evil experiment

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#HBC | Zyth
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D3 | 10/06

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:38 pm UTC

@plytho, I believe you misinterpreted Boom's post, but I'll let him address it. I'll go get em.


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