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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:59 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:EGW has led four lynches now, three of them against townies.


When did I lead four? :?:

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:48 am UTC

Reads:

Boom has been scum-hunting, and put in work last phase and had been re-evaluating. Although lazy, I don't think he would give a result and then not act on it, and push me. That brings too much heat on him, and is illogical when he could simply just go with the flow and go towards Frozen.

Plytho has shown signs of confidence and eagerness in the beginning of the Day phase. At first I was like 'wha, it's like he is grinning... IRL' meaning, I find that to be weird coming from scum, therefore I believe he is town. I can understand his concern with me wanting Boom over Bessie, yet his point is weak.

MPOLO I don't really see much scum intent from, just detachment. Boom makes a good point that still, his early claim D1 does make it less likely he is scum.

In the night, I was re-considering Sabrar because I felt (thinking Bessie was town) that the reason why we were making the wrong decisions was because scum were in a good position, in the situation of 5 man Moody scum team. Yet, after this flip, it's more likely that is not the case, and I don't think he is scum anymore. So I have him as null at the time being.

Madge, I also have as null. She is lower since I don't have much to read her by.

Laser is scum for being extra reserved the past few day phases. His vote on Jim was to push him for his role and not for his alignment. (Jim said his top 4 was [Boom Zen Ryu Yolinda]) gives Laser incentive to push for him. His predecessor DH lurked out the whole entire D1, and has done that before as scum. It makes more sense he did so because he is on a 2-man team. Laser used his Judgement to salvage his slot. His reasoning for 'baiting me' was actually not to bait me at all. In chat he stated it was because he thought Boom and Zen were masons. I also find his only pick of me weird as he hasn't really asked me anything in the day, which leads me to believe he's doing so to avoid Ryu being lynched. He also states that I lead 4 lynches when I only lead 3, which shows he is only thinking of fabricating a reason to push me instead of thinking of my actual actions. I did not want to join the Jim lynch. I pushed for Frozen two times. His role being miller also doesn't make sense along with the rest of the roles. (Yet bessie was arguing against it due to incompleteness)

Red Ryu is scum. He isn't really as invested as he was last phase, and he isn't really trying to find the most likely scum. His picks never really changed. His role doesn't make sense as doctor, and he failed to protect Bessie. Boom has seen him not visit me N2, which is concerning. His role as claimed seems too powerful compared to the rest of the roles. Red Ryu and Laser both being scum forced to risk his own position to make a night kill, makes sense. They had other options to kill, like MPOLO or EGW or BOOM, but chose the riskier option, since they believed Bessie to be confirmed town. MPOLO did not switch her, and nor did Sabrar deflect towards her.

Town

EGW
Boom
Plytho
MPOLO
Sabrar
Madge
Laser
Red Ryu

Scum

[Red Ryu > Laser]

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:06 am UTC

@EGW: do you think scum!Ryu's note-forging is a primary or secondary ability? If it's the latter we could test it tonight.

Additonal thought: if we agree that LaserGuy is scum then we could lynch him, have me absorb Judgement with both Ryu and mpolo protecting me, that gives us 2 lynches tomorrow.

I still think BoomFrog is scummy because ninja note-forger does not seem that reasonable to me and his original reaction to the contradiction between his and Ryu's claim was very laid back.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:21 am UTC

Being on a two-man scum team, I think he may have a more powerful primary, so probably secondary. I'm not going to wait to test it.

Talk to me more about Boom. You dislike his reaction, but what did you think of Ryu's reaction?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:25 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@EGW: do you think scum!Ryu's note-forging is a primary or secondary ability? If it's the latter we could test it tonight.

Additonal thought: if we agree that LaserGuy is scum then we could lynch him, have me absorb Judgement with both Ryu and mpolo protecting me, that gives us 2 lynches tomorrow.

I still think BoomFrog is scummy because ninja note-forger does not seem that reasonable to me and his original reaction to the contradiction between his and Ryu's claim was very laid back.

You agree with my initial thought that note forger is implausible but you also think I should have been more aggressive towards red?
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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:35 am UTC

@EGW: I find Ryu's reaction null, reads to me like confused townie but it's the easiest to fake.

@BoomFrog: at the time of your initial reaction there was no confirmation of notes, nor have you put forward a note-forging scenario. In that light your reaction is subdued imo.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:37 am UTC

What do you think of RR's play overall, Sabrar? Also why do you suspect Boom besides the reaction to Ryu? What is your top 2?

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:42 am UTC

Vote: Red Ryu

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:46 am UTC

Reminder that deadline is this Thursday. Start thinking about your top 2 everyone.

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:49 am UTC

Top2 is LaserGuy > BoomFrog with Ryu in third place if I'm wrong about either. The main point is that I feel we would be way too weak without a Doctor but I haven't reevaluated this in the light of the new setup-possibilities.
Detailed reads will have to wait.

Do you think a 2-man scum-team with only NK makes sense in a 20 player game? moody and h_a had Possessor but what does LG+RR have?

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:53 am UTC

Yes, considering Ryu's role seems over-powered compared to the rest of the roles. Note that Laser's role seems similar to Jim's. We will think in terms of one big team, and our reads will be thrown off finding connections to Moody that don't exist. The smaller scum teams will think they are going against a large town which actually has less then they think. (Due to independents) I also believe Boom's result.

How do you explain Bessie being chosen as the kill when scum have other options that night?

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:54 am UTC

I don't see how we need a doctor when I explained to you D4 that we had plenty of protection. Spak, Frozenflame, myself, MPOLO, etc. I want you to give me that re-evaluation.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:57 am UTC

Boomfrog, take my hand:

Image

Let us vote Ryu together.

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:11 am UTC

I don't see how you can - at the same time - argue both that we are strong and a scum-team of 2 being strong. There's just so many things that could go wrong for them accidentally due to bomb, deflection, jail, bus-driver, etc. Losing just 1 member due to ramdom chance cripples them.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:17 am UTC

What I mean is we had protection spread out enough that we could protect just enough, not have over-protection. The lyncher was focused on (1) town, and possibly another town. The bomb can be either or but that was announced. Time travelers had two scum originally as well, which recruited upon death. I don't want a detailed read on Ryu, just what you have at the top of your head.

Do you believe there are 2 teams now? What do you think happened?

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:26 am UTC

We assumed that scum had a lot of setup knowledge due to moody's Know-It-All and therefore false-claiming was less risky for them. However if we have 2 teams then this falls apart and false-claiming Doc as first from someone not on moody's team is a lot more risky.
I do think we have 2 anti-town factions but I'm not ruling out the possibility of an SK.
I think you're clearing BoomFrog for the wrong reasons, increased activity when he's in danger of getting lynched is not town-indicative.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:31 am UTC

Can you give me your opinion on Red Ryu at the top of your head?

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:34 am UTC

It's pretty easy to fake-claim doctor when you can send notes to people and have it show up on their bodies, regardless of team I think. I think it would make more sense in the 2-man team rather then the Moody 2-man recruiting team.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:40 am UTC

I found Ryu scummy most of the game, his obsession with Madge got in the way of any real scum-hunting. As mentioned before he only left my PoE due to Doc-claim.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Sabrar » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:43 am UTC

I have almost 500 unread messages at work. Probably won't be back until the evening, maybe just checking in once in a while.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby Evil George Washington » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:49 am UTC

Alright. When you have the time I'd like to see your re-evaluation of the setup. I'm going to sleep, good night.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:51 am UTC

EGW

Briefly: EGW is scum. From a general game strategy point of view, I feel this is likely due to the fact that, as far as we can tell one of the scumteams has been extremely successful, both in decimating Town and in removing their competition. There has been no direct evidence of this team until today. My feeling is that this implies that the second scumteam is led by at least one very strong player that is actively manipulating Town. Of the remaining cast, this points to either EGW or BoomFrog, and much more likely EGW.

EGW gained considerable (and justified) townie credit for the D1 lynch of moody. However, his subsequent play does not hold up to scrutiny, and with a second scum team being extremely likely at this point, EGW's townie credit for the moody lynch must also be brought into question. In D2, he pushed a ludicrous Spak-Zen connection, leading into a Spak-Gamma connection, ultimately hammering Spak long past the point where any reasonable person would have considered him to be Town. In D3 he pushed a flimsy scumread on me, followed by an equally flimsy scumread on Sabrar/Madge/bessie, followed by an equally flimsy push on FrozenFlame. Despite ending up with three theoretically solid scumreads ending D3 (FrozenFlame, plus BoomFrog and RR for their EoD shenanigans), he doesn't roleblock any of these players. D4 when the claims roll around, BoomFrog is unexpectedly missing a result. Clearly RR must be a ninja-mod-confirming-bastard-messenger. It couldn't possibly be that EGW himself simply roleblocked Boom with his claimed power :roll:. EGW pushes RR hard on his connection to FrozenFlame and on this point, though he ultimately concedes that RR is probably just a special kind of doctor... backing down much like every other time he's tried this so far. After mislynching FrozenFlame, EGW is back to pushing RR, despite the fact that his original reason for suspecting RR (connection to Frozen) is faulty, and has already conceded that more likely than not RR's claim is legitimate. He hasn't even tried to explain this discrepancy in his supposed "progression", simply asserted it as forcefully as he can and as often as he can in hopes that it will stick. Likely he will back down on his scumread on Red once again as soon as Town moves away from it, just like he has done every other time. His reads aren't genuine, and they haven't been all game.

I think the best option today for us to is lynch EGW. I believe that he is most likely scum, and that lynching him will probably cripple the remaining member, or members, of the team.

Gut belief is that EGW's buddy is plytho, if for no other reason than the fact that plytho is the only person remaining in the game that EGW hasn't tried to manufacture a case on yet. But I'm open to other possibilities.


Some detailed analysis day by day:

D1:
Spoiler:
I actually liked most of EGW's play here. He establishes his position as town leader early, asking lots of questions and trying to prompt recalcitrant players to speak. D1 voting is a little erratic, moving from moody to Dark Horse, to jimbob (maybe one or two in between?), but eventually settles on moody after prompting from Sabrar.

We have a few meta pings from FrozenFlame and here.

Noting that EGW says Red Ryu is "a bad liar" and "easy to read as scum".

D1 bottom four looks like this
EGW wrote:Moody --- Spak --- Red Ryu --- Gamma Emerald

Nothing really problematic here. I'll come back to Spak in D2.


D2
Spoiler:
Opens the day with his BoomFrog case. This is the first in a series of cases on people by EGW that are, quite frankly, pretty awful. This one is at least reasonably motivated--BoomFrog can often have a scummy D1 and doesn't reveal all of his thoughts--but there's very little meat on the case, and he quietly sets it aside pretty quickly.

Shortly thereafter he suggests that Megaman claim early without really justifying the benefit to Town for such a powerful PR to out themselves at this point in time. Noting though, that this information, aside from being valuable in terms of revealing a townie PR, also benefits the second scumteam which likely is also deprived of setup info.

Shortly thereafter EGW reveals that heused his immunity on N1. This is an odd thing for him to reveal in and of itself and his reasoning--that he didn't want to be NKed is not really well-motivated and isn't consistent with him later withhold his abilities. One possible reason for it is Peaceful Whale, who was proclaiming loudly that he wanted to target someone very townie with his power to confirm them. Scum!EGW could have reasonably expected himself to be a target for this since he was being actively townread by the bulk of the cast (or a target for an NK from the other scumteam) to innoculate himself against PW's ability.

Noting that EGW agrees that Zen doesn't like to bus.

Wants to tree stump Madge. Again, this is rather aggressive and unmotivated. He isn't scumreading Madge. He wants to test her treestump claim just to see if it works, despite the catastrophic consequences for Town!Madge doing so, and there is no reason that Scum!Madge would ever do this. Much like the SirG lynch push, this isn't really meaningful without pressure from Town behind it.

EGW's D2 reads are not particularly impressive. Town leans Red Ryu, likes his progression and scumhunting, moves BoomFrog back to Town, Town on plytho. Puts a null on Spak, heury, jim, Frozen with scum on Gamma, PW, Znirk, Zen (all misses). I already talked about these reads a bunch before, and these motivated my initial scum lean on him. Noting again that he believes Zen does not bus.

On the other hand, this is quite remarkable, with Red Ryu and BoomFrog among his strongest townreads, and Gamma + at least five (FMPOV) townies in his scumreads.

Meta ping by Zen here. Note the quoted read by Zen in this post as well. Meta ping from Red Ryu here

EGW starts his Zen-Spak connection here. This is such a weird argument on many levels. He agrees with Zen's case on Spak, but believes that Zen is also scum, which he resolves by asserting that Zen-Spak is an extended bus, despite his earlier assertions, on several occasions, that he does not believe Zen would bus a buddy.. Once again, EGW jumps to an absurd conclusion based faulty evidence, using this argument to rally votes against Spak. EGW fails to provide any logical explanation for how this could work, fails to account for his own meta read on Zen--that he mentions three times--that Zen does not bus as mafia.

EGW later turns this into a Gamma-Spak bus in his attempt to secure the double lynch.

I am genuinely baffled why EGW would ask Spak to vote himself-- which Spak does!--and still consider Spak scummy enough for EGW to hammer at a point when it was fairly clear that this was a mislynch. FrozenFlame's comments here really capture just how much of an awful lynch this was. EGW's behaviour in this whole process is dreadful. He is more concerned about trying to secure a lynch than he is in actually lynching scum. And in this scenario, we already had a backup lynch in place via judgment. We could easily have allowed a no lynch D2 without hurting Town.



D3
Spoiler:
EGW's earlier big town lean on BoomFrog disappears, with this opening post.

EGW then jumps to his case on me. Once again, this is quite terrible. He points out that I'm scumreading him based on his "micro play" failing to account for the moody flip. But, if there is a second scumteam, the moody flip is no longer particularly conclusive, so this argument is invalid. He goes into more detail on his case here, which I promptly dismantle here. EGW backs down immediately. This isn't a serious read, or a serious attempt to find scum. He's just pulled a bunch of random quotes out of context and threw them at me hoping something sticks.

EGW does this again shortly thereafter, presenting a detailed case on Sabrar/Madge/bessie/Frozen. Noting town leans on jimbob, RR, and nullish on BoomFrog as well. Scumread on bessie is a little weird in context--claiming that PW copped bessie but still reading her as scum--but retrospectively prescient. His reasoning for his scumread on Sabrar is equally weird, and the entire argument rests on unfounded and unmotivated assumptions about how the Megaman role worked. He backs down again hereabouts, and then entirely later. Once again, he's pushing weak cases and backing down as soon as they meet any resistance. His scumhunting isn't genuine, he's just looking for easy lynches.

D3 he starts pushing FrozenFlame. This push is both odd and rushed. The arguments he uses in support of his push on Frozen aren't that much different from the ones that I was using to push Frozen in D2, but he feels the need to make a push anyway.

(Aside: I had originally thought that EGW had been voting for jimbob in this lynch, but I was apparently mistaken on this point)

The aftermath of this lynch results in him being suspicious of BoomFrog and RR for their end-of-day behaviour, as well as (presumably) Frozen since that was who EGW was pushing. Yet despite these apparently excellent scumreads, EGW withholds his roleblock.


D4
Spoiler:
Almost done!

A few notes here. EGW's scumread on RR is based on his connection to FrozenFlame. There are many examples. EGW later admits he believes Ryu and clears him as doctor (reads Frozen as null in the same post, but pushes him anyway)

Note also that EGW spends a lot of time making noises about BoomFrog and Red Ryu's contradiction in claims (which is reasonable), but there's actually a very simple explanation for this, one which EGW obviously can't consider: EGW roleblocked BoomFrog N2. This is perfectly consistent with the claimed results and requires no bizarre mechanics like a ninja-messengers. Considering that EGW was sufficiently paranoid about being NKed that he used his immunity power N1, it's bizarre that he chose to withhold his other powers so late in the game. Why not roleblock FrozenFlame N3 after the lynch failed? Or one of BoomFrog/RR whom he also suspected? Probably because he doesn't have a roleblock anymore.


D5

Spoiler:
After claims, scumreads Ryu for not getting the message, which is fair enough. Ryu confirms. Yet EGW scumreads him anyway. Breaking down this post in a bit more detail:

Right now, I'm thinking it's Ryu and Laser. Ryu due to his conflicting claim (Being a doctor yet not being shown as visiting me N2), and him letting Bessie die.


Ryu's conflicting claim can be resolved by EGW himself roleblocking BoomFrog. Alternately, there's Yolinda. Either scenario is much more likely than what EGW is proposing.

The comment about letting bessie die makes no sense at all. EGW's plan had RR coinflip between bessie/Sabrar for who to protect. Making this plan and then claiming that RR is scummy for doing exactly what EGW told him to is extraordinarily disingenuous. Yes, it's possible that RR is scum and used his knowledge of who was getting "doctored" to kill bessie. But the fact that this scenario is also completely consistent with Town!RR following the plan as outlined doesn't exactly make this argument meaningful in the slightest.

He has been pretty un-engaged in the game, and DH lurked out. HA and Yolinda lurking now makes total sense. If HA and Moody were a 2-man scum team, Moody being pressured would make HA want to lurk out as much as possible.


Noting EGW's insistence of reading scummy behavior into people disappearing without playing.

Now consider the Night Kill, and the Night plan. Only Ryu and Laser were switched. That would force scum to have to kill outside of the two being switched, and also allowing them to at the same time. (Since Ryu is the proclaimed doctor) Between the choices of Sabrar and Bessie, Bessie was the better choice from their second scum team point of view.


Between the choices of Sabrar and bessie, perhaps, but why would scum!RR risk doing this, when it immediately implicates him for doing so? There are several other players, including EGW himself, that were not protected N4. Why would scum!RR risk killing bessie at this juncture?

Again, noting here that as of D4, EGW believed RR's claim and was reading him as scummy primarily because of his connection to FrozenFlame. His supposed progression here is completely flawed because his reasons for finding RR scummy in the first place were based on faulty assumptions (namely scum!Frozen), but he hasn't gone back to update his read to reflect that change.

Finally, his D5 reads.
Laser is scum for being extra reserved the past few day phases. His vote on Jim was to push him for his role and not for his alignment.


No, I had been reading jimbob as scum since my D1 reads. He improved somewhat through D2, and I had a solid scumlean on him for all of D3. He was my second choice pick in D3, and considering the danger posed by his power, I was happy to vote for him. This argument makes little sense anyway, since jimbob's power is not a particular danger to scum, but is a danger to Town. As EGW himself pointed out, the correct way to play Town!jim's power is to withhold indefinitely.

(Jim said his top 4 was [Boom Zen Ryu Yolinda])


Many people read RR as scummy, including me, at this point in the game. This is hardly indicative of anything.

His predecessor DH lurked out the whole entire D1, and has done that before as scum. It makes more sense he did so because he is on a 2-man team.


This argument is nonsense.

His reasoning for 'baiting me' was actually not to bait me at all. In chat he stated it was because he thought Boom and Zen were masons.


This is true. Upon a reread I realized (incorrectly) that Zen and Boom were softclaiming masons and this was the reason for a lot of the interactions between them (I have an impression collection of breadcrumbs in GoJoe). I was supposed to be reading Zen for you at the time and just gave him a hard townread without really thinking about the implications. This was the best I could come up with to diffuse the situation without revealing the mason pair when you started to press me about it.

I also find his only pick of me weird as he hasn't really asked me anything in the day


This is also true, but meaningless. As you pointed out before, it's not your micro play of today that matters.

which leads me to believe he's doing so to avoid Ryu being lynched.


Well, I think it's likely that he's telling the truth and that you're scum, so I guess it's true in that sense.

He also states that I lead 4 lynches when I only lead 3


I stand corrected on this point.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:57 am UTC

Vote EGW

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:03 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Gut belief is that EGW's buddy is plytho, if for no other reason than the fact that plytho is the only person remaining in the game that EGW hasn't tried to manufacture a case on yet. But I'm open to other possibilities.


I guess mpolo fits this category too.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby mpolo » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:41 am UTC

LaserGuy earlier analyzed who used what power on what night. This makes an EGW-plytho team at least plausible (with plytho having carried out the kill rather than actually inviting bessie to chat). This is assuming that scum can't use their main power while carrying out the kill, which is also only an assumption. I need to read the more detailed case against EGW.

I've been reading EGW and Sabrar both as townie for almost the whole game, but in the forest of null-reads that I have at the moment, I have to question this assumption. Sabrar, of course, as unopposed MegaMan claim, seems pretty clearly townie, unless the setup is _really: messing with us. (Like the game where the mason recruiter was the big bad -- Gargoyles, I think.)
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:43 am UTC

mpolo wrote: Sabrar, of course, as unopposed MegaMan claim, seems pretty clearly townie, unless the setup is _really: messing with us.
Why is megaman necessarily townie?
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:48 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote: It couldn't possibly be that EGW himself simply roleblocked Boom with his claimed power :roll:.
EGW claimed 'secondary ability roleblock'

@BoomFrog: was your vindicator a secondary ability?

Even if it's not, it's still possible that jack of all trades EGW didn't disclose all of his trades and there may have been a regular roleblock in his arsenal. But, (and I'm assuming he's actually joat and not something else), if the regular roleblock was used on BoomFrog earlier, how could scum manage to kill bessie? EGW + RR is a possibility, but EGW's push on Red makes that unlikely. A strongman kill is a possibility. Is it normally possible for scum to use a strongman + another power (if not we could look at people that used no verfified powers.)

I've also gotten a 'keeps leading town the wrong way' vibe from EGW.

And I insist that his last minute switch of the night plan (after my bedtime) felt very weird. "Bessie didn't want to join chat" is just wrong and it's not like BoomFrog was in any way vocal about wanting to join chat. I can understand that EGW, who town read BoomFrog, might want him in chat. But EGW thinking I'd just go along with that plan makes little sense, as BoomFrog himself pointed out. I've shown myself to be quite stubborn, so my resistance should come as no surprise to EGW.

I'm not confident EGW is scum but he's on my suspect list, along with Red and mpolo.

EGW + mpolo would explain why neither of them was targeted by the kill.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:57 am UTC

Wait, EGW roleblocking Red but confirming the message N2 makes no sense.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:57 am UTC

Wait wait, EGW supposedly blocked Boom N2, not Red, ignore previous statement.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Tue Oct 24, 2017 1:20 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote: him letting Bessie die.


so it's my fault I followed the exact instructions you provided for me to protect on of Sabrar or Bessie? What?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 24, 2017 1:24 pm UTC

#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote: him letting Bessie die.


so it's my fault I followed the exact instructions you provided for me to protect on of Sabrar or Bessie? What?
No, that's not what anyone's saying.

You were supposed to protect bessie or Sabrar with 50% chance for each. This should discourage scum from targeting either of them.

One of them died, this means scum wasn't discouraged.

Why weren't they discouraged?

-Maybe you are scum and therefor know who won't be 'protected'
-scum used a strongman to make sure they broke your protection
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 24, 2017 1:29 pm UTC

Who do you think the strongman is?
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:36 pm UTC

I’m still thinking about how and why bessie.

Red remains the most suspicious (possibly scum’s goal) as far as how is concerned. Killing bessie and sending a protective note to Sabrar is easy for Red.

Mpolo is also an option for how, but only in cooperation with EGW who sent his note directly to Red while mpolo switched bessie and [x], while [x] was targeted with the kill. (EGW could also have sent his note to bessie, with [x] being Red) This has the risk of Red’s protective note ending up in the wrong place so this is a low probablility scenario.

Strongman is an option for everyone else.

Why bessie is the hard question.

There’s a long list of better targets:

Sabrar: better target because megaman is an annoying power for scum to deal with (He could deflect so if scum didn’t use strongman he was a worse target)
BoomFrog: better target because unprotected
LaserGuy: better target because he gives scum the possibility to hit Red (through mpolo’s bus)
Evil George Washington: better target because unprotected joat town leader
Mpolo: better target because unprotected and busdriver is an annoying power for scum to deal with, seriously, how is mpolo alive?
Plytho: better target because unprotected chat recruiter (if one of my chatpartners is scum I'm not a prime target anymore though)

Madge wasn’t a better target because she’s supposedly jailed
Red wasn’t a better target because he was protected.

Bessie is pretty much the worst target that scum could hit. The one thing it does is paint a big target on Red (and a smaller, less obvious target on mpolo).

I just don’t see Red’s motivation for killing bessie at all. BoomFrog does point out correctly that Red hasn’t seemed very engaged. He’s had a singular focus on Madge all game and he’s unaware that bessie agrees with him on Madge? Very weird. Madge is the one player he’s been paying attention to and trying to get lynched, how can he not see that bessie was a possible ally? Could he be SK? His lack of attention may explain why he targeted bessie? As I’m writing this I’m not really convincing myself Red is scum. But I kind of get an indie feel from him.

Talking about SK leads me to setup thoughts:

The question about bessie’s ‘recruitment’ is still open I think.
Evil George Washington wrote:It's possible that Moody and HA were a two man scum team like in TT, and Bessie was town D2, which would explain why PW may have actually had chat/confirmation of her alignment at that time, but afterwards, she might have been recruited upon Yolinda's death.
If this was the case it must have been very annoying for bessie. Switching alignment mid-game to become the single member of a no-kill mafia team.

How would that possessor work? It would have to be a passive ability, targeting a random townie? Or are we supposing Yolinda chose bessie as his target N2, to be possessed if he died D3?

Question: why are we ruling out alternating kills? The targets don’t seem to contradict that?

Also, why are we ruling out 3 remaining scum?

Reads:

Less active/engaged players:

Red: Indie?? I don’t know what to make of Red. If I was confident we’re not at mylo I’d push for his lynch.
Madge: I’m still going off BoomFrog and Sabrar’s assessment of Madge and don’t want to lynch her
Mpolo: As I pointed out D4, he should engage more with the thread. My impression of mpolo: he’s been posting stuff that I agreed with all game but I can’t remember a single stance from him. He’s been kind of neutral go-with-the-flow. An excellent target for scum to NK. Yet, here he is.

active/engaged players:

EGW: as I pointed out in a previous post: I don’t trust him.
BoomFrog: He’s been looking better lately but I remain suspicious of him. Out of everyone, he feels like the kind of player who could come up with this gambit of killing bessie.
Sabrar: I have nothing on Sabrar. His play has made sense all game, most likely townie. PoE also didn’t leave me a lot of townie spots.
LaserGuy: I’ve been all over the place on LaserGuy but my general feeling at this point is that he’s town.

Town
Plytho
Sabrar
Madge
LaserGuy
BoomFrog
EGW
Mpolo
Red Ryu
scum

I have this nagging doubt that BoomFrog/EGW is setting us up to misslynch Red (and to a lesser degree, mpolo).
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:22 pm UTC

Next step is figuring out pros and cons for lynching/Mislynching each of my bottom 4. I probably won't have time for that today.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:50 pm UTC

plytho wrote:@BoomFrog: was your vindicator a secondary ability?
Vindicator is my role name, but my kill power is listed as a second separate ability but not marked "secondary" in any way.

I need to reread EGW's claim. I'd thought he'd just said one shot role block.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:08 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
plytho wrote:@BoomFrog: was your vindicator a secondary ability?
Vindicator is my role name, but my kill power is listed as a second separate ability but not marked "secondary" in any way.

I need to reread EGW's claim. I'd thought he'd just said one shot role block.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:11 pm UTC

Thank you plytho.

@EGW: what is a secondary ability? Presumably that does not include a kill. In what way could your roleblock be useful? You said you were saving it. Saving it to do what?
I'd rather save paralysis for late game when I have more information
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:20 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
mpolo wrote: Sabrar, of course, as unopposed MegaMan claim, seems pretty clearly townie, unless the setup is _really: messing with us.


Why is megaman necessarily townie?


From a balance POV, it does make a lot more sense as a townie role than scum since it reduces swing. E.g., Town mislynches the cop, having a backup cop means that Town isn't in such bad of shape since they haven't lost both the player and the power. Having it scum role tends to swing the other way--town mislynches the vig, and scum not only has advantage of one less townie and one less kill, but also gains an extra kill for themselves.

Doesn't mean it has to be a townie role, but it definitely makes more sense as one.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:36 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Also, Laser, what do you think is the setup numbers?


Something like 13-3-2-1-1 as I suggested earlier, with the smaller team having the recruit.

EGW wrote:Laser, what is your read on Ryu? Talk to me about his role, and what you think of it.


Same as here. I don't care much for his play, but I believe his claim.

EGW wrote:Yes, considering Ryu's role seems over-powered compared to the rest of the roles. Note that Laser's role seems similar to Jim's. We will think in terms of one big team, and our reads will be thrown off finding connections to Moody that don't exist. The smaller scum teams will think they are going against a large town which actually has less then they think. (Due to independents) I also believe Boom's result.


I don't really agree with this. This game seems to be balanced around kills and protections. Town has at least 4 killing powers assuming all claims check out (judgment, Maven's vig, Boom's kill, Madge's kill), and it's unclear whether Maven was one-shot or multi shot. Plus Megaman can inherit at least Maven's kill (@Sabrar, if I'm lynched I believe you would inherit miller). Likewise, we have a bunch of protections on both townside (FrozenFlame, Red Ryu, mpolo, Znirk, plus whichever Sabrar can inherit) and scumside (moody, heury/Yolinda, EGW). Having a doctor in this type of setup makes a lot of sense. OTOH, Town has virtually no investigative powers, so we don't have any really good ways to confirm anyone. Having the doctor in some way confirmable can help counteract the fact that we only have a one shot cop.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D5 | 10/26

Postby #HBC | Red Ryu » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:51 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
#HBC | Red Ryu wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote: him letting Bessie die.


so it's my fault I followed the exact instructions you provided for me to protect on of Sabrar or Bessie? What?
No, that's not what anyone's saying.

You were supposed to protect bessie or Sabrar with 50% chance for each. This should discourage scum from targeting either of them.

One of them died, this means scum wasn't discouraged.

Why weren't they discouraged?

-Maybe you are scum and therefor know who won't be 'protected'
-scum used a strongman to make sure they broke your protection


I don't know the specific person it would be given the roles claimed.

My guess, Madge, Boom or Laser is a strongman. In terms of the most likely between them, Boom since his result makes zero sense with my own results. Only thing with me and Boom is if the Mod decided to make me not visit as a doctor which makes zero sense.


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