Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Night 3 - Time to go, CEO

[jimbobmacdoodle]

wam claimed to have targeted LaserGuy. My result that wam visited LaserGuy is a real result, and wam confirms it. If someone gave me a fake result, it was that wam targeted Maven.

If wam watched LaserGuy and saw only Maven visit him, and the Maven result was a fake result sent to wam by mafia, then who killed LaserGuy?

Sorry, I made the classic error of getting tracker and watcher mixed up. I meant that you seeing wam visit Maven was the fake result. For the second question, a Ninja, maybe? That half of the discussion is only really there for illustrating why it can't be town!wam, town!Maven. Of course, scum!bessie, would make this case work, but there would be no reason for her to claim here.

The Framer role Hari linked to is essentially what I was describing. Curious that moody decided to call Hari out for "putting a lot of research in", but didn't say anything about my suggestion.

Can players self-target?

(On phone, so not going back to see if this was answered in the rules post. If anybody else has the time, feel free to quote the relevant rule).

Bus driver is possible, but feels like more of a stretch than Framer, given the claimed information.

[Madge]

Yes, self targeting is allowed

[moody7277]

@ConMan & jimbob: wam basically put down what my thoughts on why that role name stuck out, had Hari just used the term Bus Driver I wouldn't have been piqued. Hari also had his point on a separate line with a blue link, so it was a lot more visible than where jimbob had his explanation of more or less the same thing.

[wam]

@moody might be reading it wrong but you have equted both roles. Whereas hari and jimbob were talking about two separate roles
1 bus driver switching people around
2 framer scum creating results

[moody7277]

@moody might be reading it wrong but you have equted both roles. Whereas hari and jimbob were talking about two separate roles
1 bus driver switching people around
2 framer scum creating results

I understand there's a difference, jimbob showed he knows the difference at the end of this post with his description that sounds more like what a framer would do instead of the usual "actions on player A go to player B and vice versa" we're more familiar with. Hari actually used the term "framed" in his post here, while switching back to "bus driver" here, which sounds to me like he's the one who has them conflated.

[wam]

Sorry, that makes sense now I 're read.

[Hari Seldon]

@moody might be reading it wrong but you have equted both roles. Whereas hari and jimbob were talking about two separate roles
1 bus driver switching people around
2 framer scum creating results

I understand there's a difference, jimbob showed he knows the difference at the end of this post with his description that sounds more like what a framer would do instead of the usual "actions on player A go to player B and vice versa" we're more familiar with. Hari actually used the term "framed" in his post here, while switching back to "bus driver" here, which sounds to me like he's the one who has them conflated.

My question to Maven is not related to my question to Bessie. I was asking Maven why he did not consider that he may have been framed (or any other alternative to Wam lying). I was asking Bessie why she was only considered the possibility of a Town Bus Driver and not a Mafia Bus Driver. While you are not conflating the two roles, you are conflating the two situations.

[wam]

Right so I didn't push for an early day before but discussion seems to have stalled. Does anyone have anything else to add today ?

[wam]

Thinkong it over i have 2 questions I would like answered before the lynch.

1. Bessie maven is coming across to me a flailing scum but I probably have confirmation bias. Ignoring your result what is read on mavens post irrespective to your result.

2. I asked this but didn't make it clear. Hari why is your posting so different to d1?

[wam]

Ebwop I would be interested in other people's answer to 1 as well.

[Hari Seldon]

Unvote

I would like to hear responses from Bessie and Maven before ending the day.

Wam, I have been busy at work.

[wam]

@ Hari thats fine

For reference I have a policy of always taking RL claims at face value.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I've not thought about it too much, but I think one useful thing at this stage might be for people to post their own versions of the following.
If Maven is scum, my rough order of possible buddies from most to least likely are: ConMan, Hari, bessie, moody, wam
If wam is scum, my rough order of buddies for him is essentially identical: ConMan, Hari, moody, bessie, Maven
These will probably change quite a bit following further posts, a re-read in light of the full flip, and any overnight results.

Right so I didn't push for an early day before but discussion seems to have stalled. Does anyone have anything else to add today ?

I'd like everybody to explicitly agree that they have nothing more to say before ending the day. I don't think I've got anything else that's worth saying at this point.

[moody7277]

Ebwop I would be interested in other people's answer to 1 as well.

My end of D1 possible scum were:

Least Scummy
PW
Maven
wam
somi/ConMan
Most Scummy

[moody7277]

EBWOP: I am ready to close out the day. I even found an appropriate link a la what the Smashboards player were talking about in Crossover.

[wam]

Right so I didn't push for an early day before but discussion seems to have stalled. Does anyone have anything else to add today ?

I'd like everybody to explicitly agree that they have nothing more to say before ending the day. I don't think I've got anything else that's worth saying at this point.

Sounds sensible to me.

Mine

Maven is scum - Hari, Bessie, moody, Jimbob

I don't have a feel on conman/somi being a potential partner I would have to re-read to get this one.

[wam]

EBWOP - I am not going to do if wam is scum as that is just wine filled.

[wam]

One more post, really should engage my brain to make sure it all goes in one.

I am happy for the day to end once I have an answer from bessie.

[Maven89]

I didn't consider a framer because Wam claims he's a watcher. I don't know of any roles that force someone to visit a person when they don't have a night action, I don't see what role could have framed Wam's results to show me visiting Laserguy. That'd be a heavily bastardized version of any framing role. Bus drivers can't force someone to visit, framer's can't pick what results they want shown. So Wam is just lying.

[ConMan]

Thinking about things in terms of Occam's Razor, rather than trying to create a linear town-to-scum list, the following are the possibilities I can see in order of simplest to most complicated explanation:

1. Bessie and Maven are telling the truth, wam is lying.

It only requires one liar, and it means wam is almost certainly scum. In this scenario, wam killed LG and potentially targeted Maven as a Mafia watcher/tracker to confirm that Maven had no obvious alibi so that he could be a scapegoat. The biggest problem I have with this is that I still don't believe Maven is 100% vanilla town, although I can accept that there may be an aspect to his role that he is unaware of.

2. Bessie and Maven are lying, wam is telling the truth.

Risky because if we lynch Maven and he turns out scum then bessie is probably next on the chopping block.

3. Bessie is lying, wam and Maven are telling the truth.

This assumes that something confused wam's result, but then bessie just used the opportunity to throw shade on wam. This one seems a bit weird, but possible.

4. Bessie and wam are telling the truth, Maven may or may not be lying.

This one requires something to be messing up the watcher/tracker results. It could be that Maven used an ability to throw suspicion on wam, or a third party was able to muddy the waters to make everyone involved in this look bad. My suggested Bus Driver scenario falls under this.

5. Wam and Maven are lying, Bessie is telling the truth.

This one is either the straightforward but unlikely case where wam and Maven are mafia and SK in some order, or a piece of masterful but really weird misdirection if they're scum buddies.

6. Bessie and wam are lying, Maven is telling the truth.

Some crazy bussing happening here if true.

In the absence of effects that can confuse investigations (or bussing), I feel like we have to assume that either wam is scum or bessie and Maven are scum together. On further consideration, I guess that lynching wam actually gives us the most information on the situation. If we lynch wam and he turns out town, then I would guess that we'd go Maven then Bessie. If he turns out scum, then Maven looks decent and bessie is presumably at worst neutral. I think I'm ok with this result.

Unvote Maven

Vote wam

All of this of course assumes that we get no information other than the lynch reveal, so I'm sure that things will go in a ridiculous direction, but for now I think this is the way to go.

[Madge]

Votals:

Maven - (1) - wam
Wam - (3) - Maven, bessie, Conman

With 7 players alive, it is 4 to hammer.

Day 1 ends in 2 days, 18 hours

Personal note: I've had a couple of very intense days at work this week, so if the day ends early due to hammer, I might wait until the scheduled day end to post flavour (but will declare night/everyone stop talking when hammer falls)

[Hari Seldon]

In the absence of effects that can confuse investigations

In a game with a Tracker/Tracker safe claim and Watcher/Watcher safe claim, I think that there is more than a small chance that there is a role that can confuse investigations, so we should certainly make our decision with that possibility in mind. Regardless, lynching Maven certainly gives us more information than lynching Wam.

If Maven is a Town, then we know that Wam is Scum and that Bessie is a Town. I do not think that a Mafia Bessie in a Town Maven/Wam scenario would have unnecessarily revealed that she tracked Wam—she could have let Wam mislynch Maven and then mislynch Wam the next day.

If Maven is a Mafia, we will have at least one, but most likely two investigation results to make our decision toMorrow. If one of Bessie and Wam are mafia, then more than likely they will keep the other alive, because killing the other reveals they are the Mafia.

If we lynch Wam and he is a Town and Bessie is also a Town, then we lose both of our investigations, because Mafia would kill Bessie during the Night. If we lynch Wam and he is a Mafia, we still lose both of our investigations, because Mafia will kill Bessie during the Night.

By lynching Wam, we would essentially put ourselves into a free for all D1 situation toMorrow regardless of his alignment. Lynching Maven keeps our power roles in play and gives us the most information about alignments. FoS ConMan

[Hari Seldon]

Wam was very scummy yesterDay and I was prepared to full throttle lynch him before his claim. If I were to view Wam's postings from toDay in isolation, however, I believe I would have a Town read. He is at least giving the appearance of trying to move the game forward.

Maven has not shown any attempts to move the game forward. He has not put a great deal of effort into helping us figure this situation out toDay and he did not help us yesterDay. His reaction to Wam's claim is that of a Mafia who has given up. He has not made an attempt to persuade us that Wam is Scum other than from the investigation results. Maven did not consider that there were other possibilities for why Wam had seen him visit LaserGuy. Considering alternatives is what I would expect of a Townie, especially because Maven was a contemplative player in Crossover. I also do not believe Maven's response to why he did not consider alternatives. Rather than explaining that he did not think of the possibility of a Framer or explain that he had never heard of the role, he doubled down on his conclusion and explained it in a way as if he had thought of Framer and as if he were a Framer expert. To put it another way: Maven lied.

I have some thoughts about Maven from yesterDay as well. He did ask me some justifiable questions in his big post, but the way he asked them left me with the impression that he was being devious. I do not believe that he was genuinely trying to read me. It was more as if he were trying to paint a picture. In Crossover, it looks like he was more uncertain and objective with his reads; and less aggressive. I suspect that my posting style was something easy for a Mafia Maven to latch onto. I did not respond to his questions, because I believe that trading responses at such a length would have been an easy way for Maven to put words onto the page without really contributing to other topics.

Furthermore, Maven made a couple of misleading comments about other players:

1) most suspicious is that he [Peaceful Whale] says he knows he can be investigated, which doesn't seem like a line a town role would have.

Peaceful Whale did not say this was a part of his role. I suspect that Maven was being disingenuous by pretending he did not actually understand what Peaceful Whale was saying.

2) He [Moody] gave a real read list, which I didn't have a problem with, but despite that all of his major questions have been focused on independent hunting instead of scum hunting.

Moody only asked one question related to Independents. Though grazing through Moody's postings, it looks like he had only asked one question at all Day 1, so I suppose Maven is technically correct . The point, however, is that I believe Maven was painting a portrait of Moody, not objectively evaluating him. I believe my impression of this stems from the use of the word "all".

[bessie]

Bessie, my question is why are you not considering that there is a Mafia Bus Driver?

I have been thinking about a mafia bus driver. It would still require wam to unknowingly target me every night. I think that I could accept the possibility of a mafia bus driver. What I’m having problems with is wam’s hypothetical lover targeting role. If town!wam does automatically target me every night, I would think that there is a mechanic where we could discover each other, which would be me targeting him since he targets me every night already, and that would trigger some ability like maybe mason chat, which didn’t happen. If not, what would be the point of this role? I really find it hard to believe that a watcher-that-secretly-targets-the-tracker-every-night role would exist for the sole purpose of throwing off the tracker. But as I said in this post, it’s not impossible and the role wam described here is also described in my role pm, so I believe he has this description in his role or safe claim.

Hmm, if wam is scum, it’s possible that he is looking for me. If so then he’s found me and something horrible will happen to me tonight. I’m going to assume (hope?) that this game is too small to actually have a hidden lovers mechanic or a recruiting mechanic.

Sorry, I made the classic error of getting tracker and watcher mixed up. I meant that you seeing wam visit Maven was the fake result.

I’m not following how your mistake would result from you reversing tracker and watcher.

1. Bessie maven is coming across to me a flailing scum but I probably have confirmation bias. Ignoring your result what is read on mavens post irrespective to your result.

I’m not sure I understand the question. Rereading these two posts I really can’t analyze them if I ignore my result, because the two posts are mostly about my result and my motivation. There s a bit about Maven’s role flavor which I have no reason to doubt is his actual role or a safe claim. I will make the general observation that if Maven is town and wam is scum, Maven should be scum hunting and doing what he can to flush out scum!wam’s partner.

Thoughts regarding confirmation bias. It’s possible that I have confirmation bias, in that I went in to N1 with wam at the top of my scum list. That’s why I targeted him. But from my point of view, I know I received the result I received (wam targeted LaserGuy and Maven). I don’t know that wam (or Maven) is telling the truth.

In the absence of effects that can confuse investigations (or bussing), I feel like we have to assume that either wam is scum or bessie and Maven are scum together.

I think that you are incorrect in your conclusion that wam and I can’t both be telling the truth unless there is a bus driver or other scum influence. But I think the possible situation where wam automatically targets someone(me, Maven, random?) every night is unlikely anyway, and we can revisit this tomorrow.

EBWOP: I am ready to close out the day. I even found an appropriate link a la what the Smashboards player were talking about in Crossover.

Ok, but please don’t hammer until everyone agrees to end the day. moody, on my cell phone I thought you were standing in front of an interesting mid-century modern house but now I see it’s just a big Texas.

Personal note: I've had a couple of very intense days at work this week, so if the day ends early due to hammer, I might wait until the scheduled day end to post flavour.

Madge, if there is a hammer will you end the day and start night (adding the flavor later), or will you delay N2 start until you can write the flavor?

I will be available tomorrow night, but will be very busy Thursday night and Friday, and my posting will probably be limited to quick replies.

Ninja’d.

Unvote

I still think it’s wam, but Hari Seldon has made some valid points on Maven, and I want to prevent a hammer while I think about his post .

[Madge]

Votals:

Maven - (1) - wam
Wam - (2) - Maven, Conman

With 7 players alive, it is 4 to hammer.

Day 1 ends in 2 days, 1? hours

@bessie if hammer occurs early, I or sabrar will declare it night, announce who was executed as a result of the vote, and then night will last from that moment until the longer of until all actions are in, 48 hours passed, or I write the flavour. I may just post the day end and day start flavour in one hit if all the actions are in. Do you have a specific concern?

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Bus drivers can't force someone to visit, framer's can't pick what results they want shown. So Wam is just lying.

If, as has been postulated, wam auto-targets bessie, then the bus driver doesn't need to force target necessarily. As for the Framer, I could easily see a Framer-variant, similar to that described on the mafia-scum website, who simply causes the target to see a player visit the night kill or a random additional player, or whatever.

I completely agree with the points for wam and against Maven. Wam's putting in quite a bit of effort to consider what might be going on, Maven doesn't appear to be. Wam was my scummiest player at the end of D1 (aside from PW), but his play had started to pick up.

Vote Maven89

for the above and previously stated reasons.

I was thinking about the possibility of a Bus Driver, and I think it relatively unlikely to be present, because wam's (and I think bessie's - not certain if she answered or not without looking back) explicitly stated their target's name along with the result was in their result PM. In my experience, investigave results either include the actual person they targeted (after redirection etc) or don't include the target name at all. This obviously isn't definitive.

Bessie, the mods said somewhere that there is no alignment changing role present, although I suppose that doesn't rule out recruitable mafia supporters or mason recruitment, as long as win conditions don't change.

My mistake was only in switching around who wam had to target in order for him to get a result of Maven targeting LaserGuy. The tracker would target Maven, the watcher LaserGuy, but I, on that one point, got it backwards.

moody, on my cell phone I thought you were standing in front of an interesting mid-century modern house but now I see it’s just a big Texas.

Bizarrely, so did I!

I'm not sure I agree with ConMan's case ordering, and the fact that he is using this as the main excuse for switching votes makes me wonder if he felt forced into bussing a partner earlier, but now sees a way out to save his buddy. I also really don't like his lining up of bessie as a lynch candidate following a town!wam flip. I think town!bessie is highly feasible with town!wam (if I didn't, I'd likely be voting wam).

Happy for day to end when everybody else is ready, but I want everybody to have a vote down or a clear indication of who they would vote for if it weren't for hammer.

[wam]

@ Bessie

The below from HAri was what I was trying to ge to. It matches my read but I didnt know if I was biased

Spoiler:

Maven has not shown any attempts to move the game forward. He has not put a great deal of effort into helping us figure this situation out toDay and he did not help us yesterDay. His reaction to Wam's claim is that of a Mafia who has given up. He has not made an attempt to persuade us that Wam is Scum other than from the investigation results. Maven did not consider that there were other possibilities for why Wam had seen him visit LaserGuy. Considering alternatives is what I would expect of a Townie, especially because Maven was a contemplative player in Crossover. I also do not believe Maven's response to why he did not consider alternatives. Rather than explaining that he did not think of the possibility of a Framer or explain that he had never heard of the role, he doubled down on his conclusion and explained it in a way as if he had thought of Framer and as if he were a Framer expert. To put it another way: Maven lied.

[bessie]

@bessie if hammer occurs early, I or sabrar will declare it night, announce who was executed as a result of the vote, and then night will last from that moment until the longer of until all actions are in, 48 hours passed, or I write the flavour. I may just post the day end and day start flavour in one hit if all the actions are in. Do you have a specific concern?

No that covers it. When I first read your post I interpreted it as you weren’t going to start night until deadline.

Bessie, the mods said somewhere that there is no alignment changing role present, although I suppose that doesn't rule out recruitable mafia supporters or mason recruitment, as long as win conditions don't change.

Yes further proof that I shouldn’t be playing past midnight and I should try sleeping occasionally.

[wam]

In the absence of effects that can confuse investigations

In a game with a Tracker/Tracker safe claim and Watcher/Watcher safe claim, I think that there is more than a small chance that there is a role that can confuse investigations, so we should certainly make our decision with that possibility in mind. Regardless, lynching Maven certainly gives us more information than lynching Wam.

If Maven is a Town, then we know that Wam is Scum and that Bessie is a Town. I do not think that a Mafia Bessie in a Town Maven/Wam scenario would have unnecessarily revealed that she tracked Wam—she could have let Wam mislynch Maven and then mislynch Wam the next day.

If Maven is a Mafia, we will have at least one, but most likely two investigation results to make our decision toMorrow. If one of Bessie and Wam are mafia, then more than likely they will keep the other alive, because killing the other reveals they are the Mafia.

If we lynch Wam and he is a Town and Bessie is also a Town, then we lose both of our investigations, because Mafia would kill Bessie during the Night. If we lynch Wam and he is a Mafia, we still lose both of our investigations, because Mafia will kill Bessie during the Night.

By lynching Wam, we would essentially put ourselves into a free for all D1 situation toMorrow regardless of his alignment. Lynching Maven keeps our power roles in play and gives us the most information about alignments. FoS ConMan

I agree in the case of a watcher and tracker some form of result messing power is likely.

[ConMan]

Hari makes a valid point, and I'm going to think about it (along with a few other things I have to think about at the moment).

Also, just to be clear (since bessie noted that Mafia Bus Driver/Framer isn't the only way for the weird results to happen), when I said "something to mess with results" I was including possible hidden abilities that cause auto-targeting, along with well-meaning but misguided Town Bus Driving, and many other possible "makes results look wrong" effects. But it does look likely that we've got *something* along those lines in this game.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Were there really no posts overnight?

Unofficial votals:
Maven: wam, jimbobmacdoodle
Wam: Maven, ConMan

Deadline is something like 1 day and 16 hours according to the clock. I believe as things stand, wam will get lynched.

Hari, bessie and moody, what are your thoughts now? Where are you going to vote?

@Maven, if you couldn't lynch wam today, who would you lynch?

@Anybody who hasn't done the ordered scum buddies thing I suggested earlier, please do.

[wam]

@jimbob I kept writing posts and realising it all been said and was repeating myself.

[moody7277]

I've been ready to vote Maven for the past few days, just been holding off since people were still talking. I would have done it right after bessie's response that wam was looking for except that happened early morning my time and there was a flurry of vote switching to our current situation.

Likely Scummate
ConMan
Hari
bessie
Less likely

anyone else I really can't see being scum

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I've been ready to vote Maven for the past few days, just been holding off since people were still talking. I would have done it right after bessie's response that wam was looking for except that happened early morning my time and there was a flurry of vote switching to our current situation.

Likely Scummate
ConMan
Hari
bessie
Less likely

anyone else I really can't see being scum

Why don't you vote now? It isn't hammer, and it means that Maven will overtake wam to be first to 3 votes, meaning he is lynched, if not everybody votes.

[moody7277]

I've been ready to vote Maven for the past few days, just been holding off since people were still talking. I would have done it right after bessie's response that wam was looking for except that happened early morning my time and there was a flurry of vote switching to our current situation.

Likely Scummate
ConMan
Hari
bessie
Less likely

anyone else I really can't see being scum

Why don't you vote now? It isn't hammer, and it means that Maven will overtake wam to be first to 3 votes, meaning he is lynched, if not everybody votes.

I suppose getting rid of scum is more important than cute little vanities.

Vote: Maven89

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I suppose getting rid of scum is more important than cute little vanities.

You could always make your "hammer" post in a spoiler for whoever ends up hammering to use

[bessie]

Also, just to be clear (since bessie noted that Mafia Bus Driver/Framer isn't the only way for the weird results to happen), when I said "something to mess with results" I was including possible hidden abilities that cause auto-targeting, along with well-meaning but misguided Town Bus Driving, and many other possible "makes results look wrong" effects. But it does look likely that we've got *something* along those lines in this game.

Any well-meaning but misguided townines with information that can prevent a mislynch better speak up soon. I’ve been thinking about it and I keep going back to what I know that I saw, which is that wam visited LaserGuy and Maven. Everything else FMPOV is just a claim. And also FMPOV, clearing wam depends on an unlikely game mechanic.

I had guessed that Bessie and nope.

So exactly when did you guess that I tracked you?

I don’t like that Maven has not made more of a contribution to scum hunting today. If he is town he should be posting all his thoughts before he is lynched.

1) most suspicious is that he [Peaceful Whale] says he knows he can be investigated, which doesn't seem like a line a town role would have.
Peaceful Whale did not say this was a part of his role. I suspect that Maven was being disingenuous by pretending he did not actually understand what Peaceful Whale was saying.

Why don’t you think Peaceful Whale got this out of his role? He may have had something like “you appear as non-town to investigations”.

Other picks for scum are jimbobmacdoodle and ConMan. I have a lot of little pings from jimbob, nothing definitive, but I was suspicious of jimbob for a lot of little nitpicky things in the last game we played together and I was wrong. I think somitomi’s content was suspicious on D1 but could just be that he’s a newbie. ConMan hasn’t interacted with everyone enough for me to evaluate independent of somitimi.

I would vote for wam now but I want to give moody and Hari an opportunity to work it out and let moody hammer.

Sorry I’m really busy this week. I have various friends in town this week for a funeral on Friday, and I’m preparing for an audit at work. I’ll continue to respond to questions and I’ll post any thoughts as I have them but I will probably not have time to compose a comprehensive reads list.

[Hari Seldon]

Bessie, Peaceful Whale said that he obtained that information when asking the Hosts about his flavor. His flavor said something about being able to sneak around.

Moody, we can swap voting positions if you would like.

[moody7277]

Moody, we can swap voting positions if you would like.

Done.

Unvote

[Hari Seldon]

Vote: Maven

Bessie, I have also been getting pings from JimBob. I believe that he should be reevaluated, especially if Maven flips Mafia. I have a partial case built up, which I will post toMorrow if I'm alive.