Secret Santa 2017 Endgame - Merry Christmas

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Sabrar
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:11 am UTC

To whom it may concern, my vote on wam is serious.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:19 pm UTC

And I know bessie will disagree but Madge is Town. Your evaluation of her is consistently wrong.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:03 pm UTC

Puppies.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby plytho » Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:10 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Actually, my power is better for town if it doesn't come as a surprise that I use it. It's a bit of mass redirecting in a predictable manner, more than that deponent sayeth not unless and until people want me to set it up.
Do you want to use it tonight?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby plytho » Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:13 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Liri wrote:Is it uncommon to not behead someone on first days?
Extremely uncommon. Lynching people is good.
The reason it's good is that it provides town with information. We can learn a lot about how people vote for the lynch. Who's voting early, who's hesitant. Not lynching provides us no information and (almost) definitely loses us a townie.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby moody7277 » Sun Dec 03, 2017 4:20 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Actually, my power is better for town if it doesn't come as a surprise that I use it. It's a bit of mass redirecting in a predictable manner, more than that deponent sayeth not unless and until people want me to set it up.
Do you want to use it tonight?


I'm looking for input regarding it. Secret Santa two years ago, I had something similar that I used willy-nilly to the detriment of town. Not wanting to repeat that. Downside is there is a 20% chance that the person who came up with the role is scum and will be able to adjust their tactics. I'm willing to risk that because otherwise I'm just a VT.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby plytho » Sun Dec 03, 2017 4:33 pm UTC

I understand your motivation for sharing your role with town. My question is why share this on D1 instead of later?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Sun Dec 03, 2017 5:38 pm UTC

Madge wrote:
I'm trying to reboot my meta so I am going to have to think of something to say d1 apart from dropping hints based on my role :lol: which is harder than you'd think.



Over the weekend I have been thinking more on this over the weekend. I really don't see the logic in this claim as town.

I get trying to change you meta (Sometimes I wanted too). However, surely as town the best way to test a new meta is just to play using it. None of this WINE stuff. Madge is experienced enough to know how this would go down. I would think this is much more likely to be scum madge trying to cover any slips in the future. Using the meta change as an opportunity.

Based on that

Vote Madge

Maven I am happy to leave to the mods for now for either a replacement or a mod kill.

Regards the point on me I don't really have anything to add. I stated my reasoning and thats that. I should point out that my play style is pretty much the opposite of Bessie. I play on instinct and don't tend to think things through too much. I try and state what I am thinking as I go. This was evident in werewolf where everyone found me scummy D1. Being permantly scummy was also my meta back when I used to play a lot.

bessie wrote:
wam wrote:Here you go Bessie

Town (No particular order)

Ambivalent (See not using neutral)
Am I being trolled? :P
bessie wrote:I am a strong supporter of ordered town-scum lists, with no groupings, and no dead center neutrals.



Me trolling never :twisted:

On a serious note I agree that people who class everyone as neutral are not providing any useful content and is scummy. What I disagree with is putting a couple of people at netural being scummy. Sometimes you just don't have a read on people and it is better for town to state openly than come up with a reason to put them into a box.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:06 pm UTC

Probability of Maven being wam's scum-buddy just increased by a large margin. Called it.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:18 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Probability of Maven being wam's scum-buddy just increased by a large margin. Called it.


So as I see it we have two options

1) leave it to the mods
2) lynch maven for lurking.

So are you really suggesting that lynching someone who has not made a single post is the way to go. As that would be a purely random lynch, which would definitely favour scum.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:19 pm UTC

Where do you see me stating that?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:22 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Where do you see me stating that?


You state I am his scumbuddy. Only point in the whole post I mentioned him was to leave it up to the mods. If your reading that point as revealing I can only assume you disagree. Unless you have something else to add?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:24 pm UTC

You implied that I want to lynch Maven today. Now you're arguing something else entirely. Make up your mind.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:27 pm UTC

Ok lets break this down.

1) You say I am maven's scumbuddy. If stating that we should leave him to the mods is not the reason for this what is?

2) How do you think we should handle maven?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:31 pm UTC

I completely agree with you about Maven being the mod's problem right now. However you bringing that point up out of the blue looks very much like distancing to me.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:38 pm UTC

Ok that is a fair point, however since i last posted here are the number of mentions of maven

1) Bessie

bessie wrote:
somitomi wrote:Maven89: <NEUTRAL LINE> (I know, bessie just said "no neutrals", but Maven seems to be unaware that the game is on)
This would be one of those rare times where neutral or no comment is acceptable. Note that lurking was viewed differently in the Crossover game. On Smashboards (Maven’s home site), lurking is generally accepted as a scum tell because they don’t usually have replacements available, and players can lurk their way to a win. On this site it’s most often due to real life issues.



2) Plytho
plytho wrote:People I forgot were in the game:
Maven: I was going through the list alphabetically and almost forgot about maven. As bessie(?) pointed out: maven is from a place where lurking is a reasonable scum tactic, which makes his absence suspicious.



That is 2/15 so I wouldn't say it out of the blue. Also both Bessie and plytho called it as a scum tell (Plytho much stronger). That was enough for me to think it was an open discussion.

Also missed this off my earlier post. At this point Moody you have said enough you might as well come all out and claim. Ps I am getting better vibes off moody than in werewolf (where he was scum).
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby somitomi » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:43 pm UTC

Sabrar seems awfully sure of his judgements regarding the alignment of everyone. I had the impression he usually explains his concerns about whoever he suspects, although my experience is quite limited. Someone mentioned posting restrictions (which I have never heard of or seen in action), but this post makes me feel like that might be the case here:
Sabrar wrote:Puppies.

@Sabrar: would you ellaborate on these points?
Sabrar wrote:Probability of Maven being wam's scum-buddy just increased by a large margin. Called it.

Sabrar wrote:And I know bessie will disagree but Madge is Town. Your evaluation of her is consistently wrong.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:47 pm UTC

1. I claim to have no posting restriction whatsoever.
2. Maybe later.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby moody7277 » Sun Dec 03, 2017 7:00 pm UTC

plytho wrote:I understand your motivation for sharing your role with town. My question is why share this on D1 instead of later?


I figured that this was one of those roles that it is better for town to have in the open early on. If I had used it N1 and some people had gotten important results that my power made that result invalid (i.e. player A watches player X get killed by player Y), the frustration backlash would cause anything else I said to be called into question and there would even be speculation that it is a scum redirector role.

wam wrote:At this point Moody you have said enough you might as well come all out and claim.


The appropriate point to do that would be the day after I use it so I can clear up where all the redirection went.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Sun Dec 03, 2017 7:50 pm UTC

Moody

I was confused so I went back through your posts.

moody7277 wrote:Actually, my power is better for town if it doesn't come as a surprise that I use it. It's a bit of mass redirecting in a predictable manner, more than that deponent sayeth not unless and until people want me to set it up.


moody7277 wrote:
I'm looking for input regarding it. Secret Santa two years ago, I had something similar that I used willy-nilly to the detriment of town. Not wanting to repeat that. Downside is there is a 20% chance that the person who came up with the role is scum and will be able to adjust their tactics. I'm willing to risk that because otherwise I'm just a VT.


moody7277 wrote:
plytho wrote:I understand your motivation for sharing your role with town. My question is why share this on D1 instead of later?


I figured that this was one of those roles that it is better for town to have in the open early on. If I had used it N1 and some people had gotten important results that my power made that result invalid (i.e. player A watches player X get killed by player Y), the frustration backlash would cause anything else I said to be called into question and there would even be speculation that it is a scum redirector role.

wam wrote:At this point Moody you have said enough you might as well come all out and claim.


The appropriate point to do that would be the day after I use it so I can clear up where all the redirection went.


The blue highlights (mine for emphasis) suggested you were going to share more details with us. With your current position I am worried you are a scum redirecretor that is hoping to utterly confuse town on D2 from all results. You could just edit your claims to confuse any claimed results.

On that note I am happy to leave it to D2 with the provision that you claim first, thereby minimizing any scum opportunities.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby bessie » Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:13 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Madge: trying to reboot her meta would look scummy if she hadn’t been saying she’d do exactly that in the last game. Her defense does look pretty winey but I’m kind of sympathetic to it because “well, I’ll make this my town meta” is what I said in the crossover game.
I’m thinking about this. We never did have that discussion after Crossover (see this post). Your content so far in this game has been, well, for you, pretty tame, as already noted by me. You are usually more confrontational, but you possibly were purposely so in Crossover in an effort to make it your town meta. So I don’t know what to think right now, except to note that you have made a conscious decision in the past to develop a meta, and you may be doing so now. See also this:
plytho wrote: Sabrar: I don’t trust myself to read Sabrar this early after his performance in crossover. He’s been acting funny and I don’t know why yet, maybe an experiment in meta switching?
It seems odd to me that you would think this. It’s like meta switching is very much on your mind.

plytho wrote: I wouldn’t say lists are seen as townie. They are beneficial to town though.
Yes but having an opinion, contributing to discussion, posting a read or a list, etc is pro town.

Liri wrote:The Day ends in 4-5 days, right? Is it uncommon to not behead someone on first days?
Lynching someone on D1 is good for town, even if we lynch a townie, because it gives us information to analyze on D2. No lynching on D1 (or any day) is often viewed as anti-town, and there are players that will auto vote someone for even suggesting no lynch. And I’ve used this before (see here) in an effort to try to drive content in a really slow game and bait a player I was reading as scum (it worked but backfired, he responded but he was town).

If your question was about hammering and ending D1 early, this is uncommon. D1 discussion is very important, so we try to use all the time allotted. Ending the day early would be viewed as quite scummy.

Sabrar wrote:And I know bessie will disagree but Madge is Town. Your evaluation of her is consistently wrong.
I know from past experience it is worthless arguing with you when you make this type of meta read. :P

I am thinking about this and will come back to it later.

plytho wrote:Not lynching provides us no information and (almost) definitely loses us a townie.
This is an odd comment. Whether or not we lynch someone on D1 shouldn’t have any effect on the night kill.

wam wrote: What I disagree with is putting a couple of people at netural being scummy. Sometimes you just don't have a read on people and it is better for town to state openly than come up with a reason to put them into a box.
I’m not following you, so I think you may be misunderstanding what I like about ordered lists. An ordered list forces you to make a read on everyone. But it doesn’t necessarily force a town or scum read on anyone unless you declare a neutral line.

wam wrote:That is 2/15 so I wouldn't say it out of the blue. Also both Bessie and plytho called it as a scum tell (Plytho much stronger). That was enough for me to think it was an open discussion.
It’s in my mind, but I mostly wanted to provide some background on the forum meta regarding lurkers for Liri. He only read two games, one of which was Crossover. In the Crossover game Dark Horse was a viable D1 lynch candidate because of his lurking, which is different from most games.

somitomi wrote:Sabrar seems awfully sure of his judgements regarding the alignment of everyone. I had the impression he usually explains his concerns about whoever he suspects, although my experience is quite limited. Someone mentioned posting restrictions (which I have never heard of or seen in action), but this post makes me feel like that might be the case here:
Sabrar wrote:Puppies.
See Shakespeare III mafia for an example of posting restrictions. They’re mostly for fun, with the threat of mod punishment if you don’t play along. We’ve had games where posting restrictions were not optional, or were tied to a power, but it must have been a long time ago because I can’t think of a game right now (maybe moody, Madge, or wam can come up with one).

Sabrar’s “puppies” comment is merely confirming my read that he is in fact a fluffy puppy in the wrong time zone, and he is calling on other puppies to post. Woof.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:35 pm UTC

bessie wrote:I know from past experience it is worthless arguing with you when you make this type of meta read. :P
You should also know that I welcome the discussion anyway. :)

And I understand that it is the point of the game to read many things even into the most innocent posts, however I do think that you're overanalyzing plytho.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Dec 03, 2017 10:36 pm UTC

I've had quite a busy weekend, so sorry that I've barely posted to keep you company in our part of the world Sabrar. I'll try to do a more detailed reread tomorrow evening, but for now, here are a random collection of brief thoughts on recent content:

Wam's 2 out if 15 comment re discussing Maven sounded like a bit of a stretch to defend himself, to me, although I don't necessarily have a problem with him bringing up his opinion on Maven, given that this was his first(?) post since others mentioned Maven. Aside from that, his response to Sabrar sounds exactly like mine would have been in his situation.

@Sabrar, could you either explain why your vote on wam is serious, or point me to that explanation, please.

@Liri, I know you're new, and a bit busy, so I'm giving you a pass on this for now, but what do you think about different people's play so far? Do you have any town or scum reads yet?

I don't understand Sabrar's meta-read of bessie being town because of a lack of Gojoe post. That sounds really circumstantial to me, almost like looking for excuses to justify a bessie town read. That being said, I still don't have any issues with bessie.

I still don't understand why moody claimed this early. I can't see why town would feel the need to claim this role D1. I'm nervous, because there has been a lot of discussion recently about early claims being auto-treated as town, and so might give scum the idea to try it out as an early gambit.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 03, 2017 10:46 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar, could you either explain why your vote on wam is serious, or point me to that explanation, please.
He is not a blue dragon.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I don't understand Sabrar's meta-read of bessie being town because of a lack of Gojoe post.
No need to understand, just believe in it.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I still don't understand why moody claimed this early. I can't see why town would feel the need to claim this role D1. I'm nervous, because there has been a lot of discussion recently about early claims being auto-treated as town, and so might give scum the idea to try it out as an early gambit.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Liri » Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:21 am UTC

Moody: striking me as a lot less scummy than in the Halloween game, but maybe that's just cause I was following along in the Gojoe thread. I don't know about the claiming part.

Sabrar: going after Wam/Maven pretty quickly.

Bessie: is, I've gathered, very consistent across games. I suppose that makes me keep my guard up.

I haven't developed much of a sense for Wam or Madge

Plytho, Jimbob, and Somi's posts I've liked (I suppose). Plytho, I liked your flavor interpretation.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Madge » Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:16 am UTC

Sorry about missing a day there, work's busy lately (madge-perosna-life-update: submitted my final job application for a while, now supervising an intern which is time consuming). But I thought I'd check that in.

Moody has claimed somethign! That's interesting. I'm wary of redirectors - depending on how the ability works and your confidence level you may be better off not to use it. I'm notoriously unconfident though so that's where my brain goes; no doubt Sabrar, SDK, mpolo, others would have the confidence to use this power effectively; maybe channel them. That's probably what I'd do. But if it's a mass thing then I don't even. I think less scum knows the better. So: give it your best shot, and claim tomorrow. If you die overnight then we'll have to make the best of potentialyl contaminated results.

I know I said I hate them but I'm doing a scum town list since it's something I can do that people will find helpful. I think it's very biased though and it's a "gutread" list rather than a properly well thought list.

Town

Sabrar (super biased no doubt since he thinks i'm townie)

Liri (newbie bonus)

Somitomi

jimbob

moody

bessie (seems to be a bit different somehow, can't put my finger on it)

plytho (reading a lot into flavour, mod says it's irrelevant, maybe scum who knew it was irrelevant wanting to get us off the track?)

Wam (biased omgus probably don't pay attention to this one)

Scum

(despite the labels this list ranges from neutral-slightly townie to neutral-slightly scummy)
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:49 am UTC

So from the list Madge if you had to vote now who would you vote for?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:38 am UTC

Current votals:

wam (1) - Sabrar
plytho (1) - Madge
Madge (1) - wam

Deadline in 3 days, 7 hours


Please remember that any night actions you have need to be submitted before the end of day. If Maven does not post within the next 7 hours, he will be replaced.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Madge » Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:50 am UTC

Honestly I guess moody if I had to now?? I normally don't vote D1 and I don't intend to change that.

Moody logic is purely his power sounds like it'll give us a headache and better to have it out of the equation all else being equal.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:53 am UTC

Well you are currently voting plytho ??
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Madge » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:00 am UTC

Oh right that was from rvs and much to the cranberries' chagrin i had to let it linger

unvote

(note i did not actually have to let it linger, i was just making a terrible pun)
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 12:29 pm UTC

Ok so not being willing to vote d1 is normally a big red.flag to me. So it being meta I went back and checked two previous games. You did vote 1 day on one but it was for a claimed indie so fair. Don't have a link as on my phone.

I still find it suspicous though as vote patterns are our best source of data (in my opinion). Not being willing to vote is scummy same thing as Bessie' s neutral point.

Also Madge s posts are giving me more concern. The whole I don't normally do lists, but here is one, but it doesn't mean anything. Defintely comes across as scum trying to appear townie whilst keeping their options open. So yeah my votes staying for a while.

@Bessie yeah I had misunderstood slightly.

Also we are 3 days from deadline no real wagons seem to be forming so if were not careful we will limp into deadline with a few votes on one person which would be far to easy for scum to effect.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 12:36 pm UTC

wam wrote:So from the list Madge if you had to vote now who would you vote for?


Whilst were at it I would.like an answer to this from everyone at this stage but particularly Liri and somi!
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:05 pm UTC

Busy day at work.

Core Town:
Liri
bessie
Madge

Most likely Town:
plytho
jimbob

Probably Town but who knows:
moody
somitomi

Obvious scum:
wam

PoE scum plus ties to wam:
Maven

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby moody7277 » Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:22 pm UTC

[quote=Madge"]Moody logic is purely his power sounds like it'll give us a headache and better to have it out of the equation all else being equal.[/quote]

Madge's big red X goes here. I know it will give town a headache because I've done it before. Some of you were in that game and so may recall. On reactions to the claim, plytho and jimbob are showing a good mixture of curiosity and suspicion, while wam seems more interested in the mechanics. I don't want to go into details until D2, and yes I have decided to go ahead with it tonight, when I had hoped to point out what the redirection did after people had posted results. That would require trust, which doesn't seem to have a place in mafia.

Taking my mom to a doctor appointment later, so don't have the time a full reads list should really take.

Not to vote for:
bessie
Sabrar
plytho
jimbob
somitomi

Votables:
Madge
wam
Liri

Have to wait for judgement of Maven's sub
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:35 pm UTC

@moody, why is Liri in your votables list?
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

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Peaceful Whale
Posts: 167
Joined: Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:38 pm UTC
Location: Northern Virginia

Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Peaceful Whale » Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:39 pm UTC

Suzaku will replace Maven when his time runs out. He has about 3 hours left I believe.
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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moody7277
Posts: 616
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:06 pm UTC
Location: Extreme south Texas

Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby moody7277 » Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:06 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@moody, why is Liri in your votables list?


Aside from their last post, Liri has been rather circumferential in content. I'm much more likely to be voting wam or Madge though.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:25 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar, could you either explain why your vote on wam is serious, or point me to that explanation, please.
He is not a blue dragon.



@moody given this is sabrar' s reason for voting me. I was wondering if you would care to give an explanation. Or link to one if I have missed it.
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Sabrar
Posts: 42
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:34 pm UTC

wam wrote:@moody
Further proof. Not that it was needed.


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