Secret Santa 2017 Endgame - Merry Christmas

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Sabrar
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:07 pm UTC

Hi everyone! This is your favorite puppy solving the game again. What's different this time, I hear you ask? Well, I'm giving reasons. That's right, wall-of-text coming up.
Warning: everything is from my pov, so I'm implied Town.

Lemma 1: if jimbob is scum his partner must be moody.
Proof: Theoretically it could be argued that jimbob is bulletproof or they guessed correctly that moody doesn't like being a VT and would use his ability anyway. However I feel that the risk scum would have run in this case (of not getting their NK right) is still too great, so if moody is Town and his ability truly has priority and I think that they would not have targeted scum!jimbob with the NK.

Lemma 2: if Madge is scum her partner must be flicky.
Proof: we know from D1 votals that it can't be bessie or Liri. It can't be jimbob (see Lemma 1 or D1 votals again). It's unlikely to be moody due to him voting her D2 (there are good suspects elsewhere but Madge's lynch might go through so bussing makes little sense here). Furthermore if we accept the consensus that Madge's surprise here is genuine then Maven makes the most sense for scum!Madge not having it realized earlier.

Lemma 3: if Liri is scum his partner must be flicky.
Proof: others have expressed their opinion on Liri not being coached. My read on him comes entirely from this quote:[/quote]Heh! I keep forgetting that I'm playing as I'm reading all this.[/quote]a) If this is true then he most likely didn't get any pm-s from a scum-buddy. I think any one of us would have welcomed him early and offered plenty of advice. That means only Maven remains as a possibility. (Originally I thought that statement is an absolute town-slip because new-player-scum would be too excited to forget about it but I later revised my opinion.)
b) The quote could have been faked but I simply don't see it. It's so out of left field, I simply doubt that he or his buddy would have come up with it. Plus this forum does not have a rich history of faked town-slips so I doubt it was on anyone's mind so early in the game.

Lemma 4: if flicky is Town then Madge and Liri are Town as well
Proof: this can be derived pretty easily from 2 and 3.

Lemma 5: if flicky is Town then moody must be scum.
Proof: if flicky is Town then by Lemma 4 both scum must be in {bessie, jimbob, moody} and we know by Lemma 1 that {bessie, jimbob} is not possible.

Suggested plan: lynch flicky. If he's scum then his buddy is most likely either Liri or Madge. If he's town then lynch moody next and F3 will be decided between bessie and jimbob.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Liri » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:12 pm UTC

I'm down with that.

Vote flicky
There's a certain amount of freedom involved in cycling: you're self-propelled and decide exactly where to go. If you see something that catches your eye to the left, you can veer off there, which isn't so easy in a car, and you can't cover as much ground walking.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:08 pm UTC

:( Am I going to be leaving straight away?

I didn't have the time I hoped I would - I've read through D2 but haven't had time to compose a proper post yet. General impression without thinking too hard about it is that moody and jimbob are almost certainly town and Sabrar is likely town. bessie doesn't seem to have as much meaningful D2 content as everyone else but maybe my note-taking was just lacking when it came to her - are people just assuming she's town for the usual meta reasons or is there something clear that I missed when skimming? If we can rule her out then I understand why Liri, Madge, and me are popular picks for scum.

Suzaku's lack of activity must be for IRL reasons because there's no explanation I can offer for it myself.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:38 pm UTC

@flicky: apologies, you subbed into a very bad place. We know Suzaku had/has IRL problems, we don't know why Maven couldn't play.
bessie is considered townie by most due to her playstyle being the same as always, I also think there is a meta-tell though others disagree.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Madge » Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:25 am UTC

Sabrar.... lemmas!! oooo keep talking dirty to me like that <3

Can you break down why bessie/Liri can't be my scum partner?

I know you said you based it on town!Sabrar, but why didn't you account for scum!Sabrar for our benefits? As it stands it's a set where it's impossible for you to be executed by votes today since we're chooseing between people who could be scum from your pov.

I agree that Flicky gives us a lot of information but I feel if you're going to try and be formal with all these lemmas you need to account for yourself. And it's pretty common for people to account for themselves in laying out possibilities to Town.

FOS Sabrar

I'm also not so quick to put Bessie in the town pocket just for past and meta. I think her long townie history will give her an edge in playing scum. I'll check the D1 votal history when I get a chance so I can understand the tell you are mentioning there...
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Madge » Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:26 am UTC

(goes to show i don't proofread my posts, at the top I ask why bessie/liri can't be my scum partner but at the end I resolve to go reading through the stuff you referenced: was trying not to pull another "why is jimbob 10 to moody?" situation and actually use my own brain)
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:46 am UTC

Madge wrote:Can you break down why bessie/Liri can't be my scum partner?
They voted for you D1 and votals split 5-5 between you and wam. It's hard to imagine a serious bus like that.

Madge wrote:I know you said you based it on town!Sabrar, but why didn't you account for scum!Sabrar for our benefits?
Because that does not lead to a concrete action-plan and defeats the purpose. I can (mostly) offer only wine for my defense.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:49 am UTC

Gonna make sure I can get a proper post in tonight (in around 12 hours) but will look in at lunchtime and see if I can at least offer some thoughts.

I don't mind the fact that Sabrar's plan is from a Sabrar=town point of view because I can't see him being scum with that ability, unless there's more to it than we can tell currently - it seems too overpowered.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby bessie » Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:59 am UTC

Suzaku wrote:I'm truly sorry about this, but I'm going to have to request replacement.

In addition to work still being crazy, I learned over the weekend that both my Aunt and my Father-in-law are in hospital.
I apologise for how late this note is, but things are a bit insane right now.
I'm very sorry to hear this, take care. Please come back when you can, we like having you around.

Thank you flicky for replacing.


Ok, Sabrar posted a few casual thoughts.
Sabrar wrote: Warning: everything is from my pov, so I'm implied Town.
You wouldn’t mind if I take a look at this from a non-Sabrar POV, would you?

Lemma 1: I thought about jimbob/moody yesterday when I was working on this post. If only moody is scum, I can’t see why he would want to clear jimbob. If scum really wanted plytho dead moody could withhold and they could just kill plytho. If only jimbob is scum, and jimbob is bulletproof, I agree that it’s not worth the risk of not getting in a kill. So scum separately is unlikely.

Lemma 2: I agree that Madge’s partner can’t be jimbob. I am not buying that Madge’s surprise was genuine, but point regarding Maven makes sense. See my read of Suzaku here, where I note that he has defended Madge in his posts. Also, FMPOV Madge could be partners with Sabrar.

Lemma 3: Note that this proof is based on a meta read of Sabrar’s. Also the last line is irrelevant. Just because something doesn’t happen often doesn’t mean it can’t happen. My assessment is that Sabrar is probably not scum with Liri for reasons outlined by me previously.

Lemma 4, 5: I don’t have time to dig in to this right now.

Pre post edit: Something came up while I was starting #2 so sorry Sabrar I didn’t get to analyze this as well as I would have liked. I’m going to post what I have and come back to it later.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:00 am UTC

Liri wrote:
moody7277 wrote:So the scum teams that make sense are Madge-Liri or Madge-Suzaku.

How interesting. I believe they're Madge-Suzaku or moody-jimbobmacdoodle.
Let's revisit this briefly. Liri says that moody/me is one of his 2 beliefs. I can accept the logic behind that (obviously I disagree with the conclusion, but that's only because I know my own alignment). Later, he say this:
Liri wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:He is of course right that I'm not confirmed town, but him not countenancing other moody teams seems a bit weird...
Liri wrote:(which doesn't necessarily have to be jimbob, which is a bit too cute by half, but I still regard as possible)

I don't think you're the most likely, since it's almost too tidy.
Which suggests he believes other moody teams are in fact possible. It looks to me like he is contradicting himself.

FOS Liri

@Liri - care to explain yourself?

I'm also concerned by this post:
Liri wrote:I'm down with that.

Vote flicky
Liri doesn't look at the assumptions Sabrar is making and happily follows it, possibly because he's not in line to be lynched from this path.

@Sabrar, bessie, Madge - today is also likely to be busy, so I don't know that I'll get a chance to review the proof discussion. First glance looks okay, assuming town!Sabrar, but I will definitely want to do my own counter-analysis if I get a chance.

@Sabrar - you are aware that we likely only have one safe mislynch remaining, right?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:14 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar - you are aware that we likely only have one safe mislynch remaining, right?
Absolutely.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:55 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:if Liri is scum his partner must be flicky
Then why am I seeing Liri as suspicious when I know I'm town?

I think the "Heh! I keep forgetting that I'm playing as I'm reading all this." quote could easily have been said by scum. Being scum doesn't change your entire mindset - I've seen people say before that they've found themselves automatically scum-hunting even if they know who are the scum are. Madge's jimbob mistake seems like much more of a "town-slip" to me because scum couldn't genuinely make that mistake, and it did seem genuine.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Liri » Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:05 pm UTC

@jimbob
The idea of you and moody occurred to me, so I posted it. I put a lot of pressure behind you being in the team largely to see what your reaction would be. moody's response was rather understated and didn't offer much.

You being scum was really messing me up in the head and I wanted to gauge what you'd have to say.

I absolutely looked at Sabrar's assumptions and found them reasonable. Especially since he's willing to accept the possibility of Madge-flicky. And, I still regard flicky as the most likely scum candidate, which by Sabrar's plan would put me next on the chopping block.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:25 pm UTC

Liri wrote:I absolutely looked at Sabrar's assumptions and found them reasonable. Especially since he's willing to accept the possibility of Madge-flicky.
Why wouldn't he accept that possibility? Or are you "especially" pleased with that one because it's the combination that doesn't include you?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Liri » Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:26 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
Liri wrote:I absolutely looked at Sabrar's assumptions and found them reasonable. Especially since he's willing to accept the possibility of Madge-flicky.
Why wouldn't he accept that possibility? Or are you "especially" pleased with that one because it's the combination that doesn't include you?

Sabrar was very anti-Madge being scum earlier in the game.
There's a certain amount of freedom involved in cycling: you're self-propelled and decide exactly where to go. If you see something that catches your eye to the left, you can veer off there, which isn't so easy in a car, and you can't cover as much ground walking.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:28 pm UTC

True, but that was only back when he was purposely acting weird.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:34 pm UTC

I didn't falsify my reads, I just didn't gave my reasoning back then.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:07 pm UTC

@moody: any comments?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby moody7277 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:41 pm UTC

Okay, the people who are guessing me-jimbob are the scum team are doing so based off my being so definitive in clearing jimbob plus the usual read on me I think. All I can say on that is when I have been scum, I never gave a scummate a "townier than me" read.

On Sabrar's lemma 2, I suppose the reasoning on Madge's partner not being bessie, Liri, or jimbob is that they would have quick hammered wam. The surprise issue is more of a subjective thing.

Lemma 3 seems the shakiest to me since its lynchpin is based on Liri's new player status affecting the post cited. I would also have liked to have seen where Sabrar found "the others have expressed their opinion on Liri not being coached."

Lemmas 4 & 5 pretty much follow if you accept the previous ones. Also, I'd accept lemma 0 as "Sabrar is not scum" because of the previously stated reasons on his kill.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:50 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:I would also have liked to have seen where Sabrar found "the others have expressed their opinion on Liri not being coached."
jimbob mentions it here and here.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:56 pm UTC

Votals

Madge (1) - moody
flicky1991 (2) - jimbobmacdoodle, Liri

Deadline in 2 days

With 7 left it takes 4 to hammer

Reminder that you need to submit your night actions in before the end of day phase.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:01 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I didn't falsify my reads, I just didn't gave my reasoning back then.
Sorry, when you said
Sabrar wrote:Updated and actually honest reads (ordered)
I assumed you hadn't made an honest read yet.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:23 pm UTC

My reads were honest. My 'reads' were not. Basically I was trying to legitimately scumhunt so I can shoot actual scum. I just didn't give my reasons for those reads and was being deliberately weird.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:35 pm UTC

That makes sense now.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:16 pm UTC

Okay, I have some time, so let's take a look at Sabrar's suggestions:
Lemma 1 - If I am scum, so is moody. I think this looks okay from my slightly biased perspective. Given that it's Secret Santa, who knows what messing about there is with the roles, but from what we know at least, it's solid. Sabrar being scum does not change this.
Lemma 2 - scum!Madge is partners with flicky. I agree with the first portion of Sabrar's proof here - Madge is extremely unlikely to be scum buddies with me, bessie, or Liri, due to the D1 votals. I disagree that moody's vote for Madge makes it very unlikely that moody is her buddy, but do agree that it makes it somewhat less likely. That being said, I did read Madge's surprise as genuine, as noted before, and Sabrar is correct in saying that this makes flizakaven her most likely buddy. So whilst I wouldn't go as far as to say MUST, I will agree that Sabrar's theory is fairly likely. Also, assuming the genuine!Madge comment, I would be amazed if Sabrar is her buddy, since knowing how Sabrar behaves, he would definitely have asked about being able to share his submission with his buddy.
Lemma 3 - scum!Liri is partners with flicky. I agree with Sabrar's logic about the forgetting to be in the game comment (it's unlikely to be faked, and it's hard to forget you're in a game when you're getting lots of notifications from your buddy), and along with my own theory about Liri not being coached (at least earlier), this certainly points to scum!Liri being buddies with flicky. Of the remaining players (bessie, Madge, moody), I think Madge would be the least likely to have sent many PMs, making her the most likely of these three. I've never been buddies with any of them, as far as I remember, but from what I recall of bessie in WoT1, she certainly wasn't completely silent, and moody doesn't strike me as being that sort either. I have no real reasoning for Madge on this, but from Lemma 2, it's very unlikely that she's buddies with Liri anyway, so it's irrelevant. FWIW, I think this also holds up even if Sabrar could be scum - I'm certain Sabrar would have been messaging his buddy, and I doubt that he'd have advised such a fake comment.
Lemma 4 - town!flicky implies town!Madge and town!Liri. I agree with the latter, but am not as certain about the former of these two points (see my comments in Lemma 2).
Lemma 5 - town!flicky implies scum!moody. Assuming town!Sabrar, and we accept Lemma 2, then this is logically correct. Only other possibility allowing for scum!Sabrar is Sabrar/bessie, I believe. Of course, this is assuming town!flicky, which isn't proven by any of the above (and hence why we lynch him first).

Other points - scum!Sabrar is unlikely to be buddies with flicky, given how hard he was pushing Suzaku before his replacement. I'd need to have a think about whether scum!flicky could be buddies with bessie or moody, as I don't know why he couldn't be.

Summary of possible teams based on the above follows:
Me possible buddies = moody only
Madge = flicky, maybe moody
Liri = flicky only
Sabrar = bessie, moody
moody = me, maybe Madge, Sabrar, bessie, flicky
bessie = Sabrar, moody, flicky
flicky = Madge, Liri, moody, bessie

I think Sabrar and bessie are almost certainly not scum. I think moody is possible, but the unlikeliest of the remaining four. Lynching Liri gives us the least useful information if he flips town, but flipping scum should win us the game (we subsequently lynch flicky). Lynching town!Madge is only slightly better than lynching town!Liri, but a scum!Madge flip is less useful than a scum!Liri flip, since it doesn't definitively determine who is her scum buddy, and therefore is not strategically much different. Lynching town!flicky confirms town!Liri, and makes town!Madge quite likely, which is a good way of removing suspicious-looking players from the mix. Scum!flicky meanwhile doesn't really limit things down much, aside from confirming town!Sabar as well as town!me. However, we would still have a single mislynch to play with, probably, allowing us to guess twice from his four possible buddies before losing.

Flicky's still my scummiest read, so I'm quite happy with the proposed strategy, at least until we get more information.

@flicky, where are those promised reads?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:53 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@flicky, where are those promised reads?
I've been annoyingly busy. I saw the announcement that a replacement might be needed soon and thought, "This is perfect! I'm off work after this week!" Then I was pulled into the game faster than expected and haven't had time for a proper sit-down and read-through. I'm at a work party tomorrow night so I'm going to have to do as much as I can of this in my lunchtimes...
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:39 pm UTC

jimbob made an interesting mistake in his analysis and not just once if I understand it correctly. I think it comes from a townie mindset but I'll have to sleep on it.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby bessie » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:19 am UTC

I came home tonight to a plumbing leak. Again. I’ve had at least two major repairs since summer. I don’t know if I will be able to make a long post tonight as I am exhausted, and I only skimmed today’s content. Here’s where I’m currently at with my reads. moody is looking better to me than previously (for my suspicions see here) , now that there has been more analysis of jimbob/moody (lemma 1, etc). I had Suzaku as scummy in my read here and flicky hasn’t posted anything yet to change my opinion, but I see that he is busy and didn’t expect to be replacing this soon. Madge hasn’t posted anything to make me change my scum read of her either. I would currently prefer to lynch Madge or flicky.

If I don’t get back to this tonight I will try to have something in the morning.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:35 am UTC

Random thoughts from skimming the thread.
bessie wrote:
plytho wrote:Yeah, SK doesn't really make sense unless someone submitted an amazing variation that convinced the mods to keep it.
LaserGuy wrote:1. Roles should be playable by any faction
Hmm, you must have read the rule when you submitted a role. FoS plytho.
Why is a mistake like that more scummy than townie? He had to have read the rules whichever one he was. I know we already know plytho's alignment now but I want to understand your thinking for the purpose of reading you.
Liri wrote:From reading two previous games, now, it looked like giving ranked town->scum lists was vaguely scummy.
Pretty much everyone does that here.
Madge wrote:if I was scum surely with new awareness of my propensity for unreasonably early claiming I'd, well, claim unreasonably early and laugh all the way to the bank? (That was my plan, for real, if I'd flipped scum).
(Along with other posts) Madge seemed overly defensive early on. There's no reason to insist so hard that you're not scum less than halfway through D1.
Liri wrote:I'm glad I'm getting my newbie town tells in while the getting's good.
:|

I don't have time for more re-reading now (I'm four pages in) but will get back to it at my next opportunity. I would not be surprised if Liri is scum and strongly disagree with Sabrar's Lemma 3 - that one quote really doesn't prove anything.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:24 pm UTC

@bessie: sorry to hear about your problems.

So this seems to have died down a bit. I will vote for flicky tomorrow, everyone with a night action should remember to send it in.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:28 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
Liri wrote:I guess I'm also a little averse to just BSing reads on folks, but I haven't intended to be cagey or reticent about anything.
Why would you even think about BSing your reads when you could just give actual reads?
Very much this.
Suzaku wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@Suzaku: hi there! So glad you could join us. You probably know this already but wam is scum because I said so and I'm well-known for my legendary scum-hunting abilities, especially on D1. :P

Hope this doesn't ride on me being his scumbuddy, 'cause I'm town through and through so if it does then you're wrong.
Suzaku why you make this so difficult for me? :cry:
Finished re-reading D1.

Vote: Liri
Definitely my scummiest read. I think most likely scum team is Liri/bessie since any other combination with Liri doesn't make sense (except maybe Sabrar but I still don't believe his power could be in the hands of scum).

I am willing to switch my vote to myself if Sabrar's plan looks to be the best option, but the main issue I have with Sabrar's plan is how it treats Liri.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:56 pm UTC

@flicky: who is your scum-team in case Liri is town?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby bessie » Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:27 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:Random thoughts from skimming the thread.
bessie wrote:
plytho wrote:Yeah, SK doesn't really make sense unless someone submitted an amazing variation that convinced the mods to keep it.
LaserGuy wrote:1. Roles should be playable by any faction
Hmm, you must have read the rule when you submitted a role. FoS plytho.
Why is a mistake like that more scummy than townie? He had to have read the rules whichever one he was. I know we already know plytho's alignment now but I want to understand your thinking for the purpose of reading you.
My thoughts at the time were maybe it’s not a mistake. Maybe plytho is trying to downplay the threat of a serial killer because he is a serial killer. This is a smaller game but it’s happened before. Dollhouse was 6-2-1-1 with a serial killer and a survivor. And I think there were other small games with serial killers, maybe Shakespeare II but I didn’t play that one so I’m not sure and I don’t want to use my very limited morning playing time reading old games, so Sabrar can correct me if I’m misremembering.

flicky1991 wrote: I think most likely scum team is Liri/bessie since any other combination with Liri doesn't make sense (except maybe Sabrar but I still don't believe his power could be in the hands of scum).
Alignments were randomly assigned to roles so just because it doesn’t make sense from a balanced game point of view doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:36 pm UTC

Drive-by comment whilst I think about it. We don't know what, if any, restrictions beyond those claimed might be attached to Sabrar's ability. It could be restricted to D1/D2, might have a chance of backfiring, might prevent use of the night kill etc etc. Plus, we started with even numbers, so a single extra kill doesn't actually massively tip things in favour of scum. So, Sabrar's ability alone as stated does not guarantee his townieness (especially given the random assignments).
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:53 pm UTC

bessie wrote:And I think there were other small games with serial killers, maybe Shakespeare II but I didn’t play that one so I’m not sure and I don’t want to use my very limited morning playing time reading old games, so Sabrar can correct me if I’m misremembering.
Shakespeare II had an odd-night Vig Survivor (very close to SK in an 8 player game).

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:16 pm UTC

Votals

Madge (1) - moody
Liri (1) - flicky1991
flicky1991 (2) - jimbobmacdoodle, Liri

Deadline in 1 day

With 7 left it takes 4 to hammer

Reminder that you need to submit your night actions in before the end of day phase.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby moody7277 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:09 pm UTC

Discussion seems to have stalled out. Despite lemma 3's shakiness and his lemma 0 (more of an axiom really), I am on board with Sabrar's plan enough to go with lynching flicky, was mostly waiting to see if any further support for lynching Madge would develop and for us to reach this point debate-wise. So without further ado:

Unvote

Vote: flicky1991
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:07 pm UTC

@Madge: it's been a while. What are your thoughts about the current situation?

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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:12 pm UTC

Updated reads based on most recent content. (Sorry about the wall)

bessie: Has felt a bit light on content these past few days - at the weekend she made some solid reads posts, but has since died down in content (but then again so have most people, plus she claims to have RL issues). She has yet to review Sabrar's Lemmas 4-5 properly. Still probably town, but I'm feeling a little less confident about this at the moment.

bessie wrote:I can’t see why he would want to clear jimbob. If scum really wanted plytho dead moody could withhold and they could just kill plytho
bessie misses a point here that a scum team (pptionally including moody) targeting anybody will result in somebody being cleared. Either moody did redirect, in which case the person they redirected from is "cleared" (except for being a moody buddy), or they didn't, and moody therefore must be scum (because he lied about using it). The redirection claim makes everybody doubt their night results, which is clearly beneficial to scum, so it makes sense for scum!moody to claim this as much as town!moody.

@bessie - you said in your Lemma 2 analysis that you believe Sabrar could be buddies with Madge. What about moody?

flicky: I didn't really like Suzaku's D1 content, in that it was very light on reasoning, and somewhat wishy-washy in his vote. There's not been a huge amount from flicky yet either. He has made a few basic observations, which seem okay, and looks to be putting effort in to get caught up. I have no issues with his vote on Liri, given my own suspicions on him at the moment. I do however find this comment a bit weird:
flicky wrote:I think most likely scum team is Liri/bessie since any other combination with Liri doesn't make sense
given there apparently isn't any backing behind it. Why can't moody be Liri's buddy? My opinion is trending in the positive direction for flicky, but I can't throw away Suzaku's D1 content, nor Sabrar's logic above, which matches my own general thoughts, so I feel it's still likely flicky is scum. I could be persuaded away from this though.

Liri: I don't understand his town read of moody (or specifically the bit which says "And yeah, plytho could easily have been the intended NK and was willing to take the risk"). This question to somitomi prior to his flip was a fair one, as knowing who he'd tried to protect/block would have been useful to some degree at least. His confusion as to why Sabrar chose somitomi as the target is a valid concern, although scum!Liri could just as easily fake this comment, with no risk to themselves. This post is both wine-filled and defensive. Defensiveness is not guaranteed to be a scum tell, especially from a newbie, but that post he seems to want to defend his me/moody theory without any particular need to do so. I don't understand why he voiced his moody/me theory in the discussion thread initially (assuming he did), and never in-game. His backing down on the moody/me team also feels all weird. From reading through his posts again, he first says that me/moody is one of two possibilities he believes likely. He then later says that the team is a little "too cute". And then later he says that he doesn't believe that I'm the most likely buddy of scum!moody, when I ask him to explain his apparent contradictions.

@Liri - In this post you say that you think that me/moody is one of two most likely scum teams, with the other being Madge/Suzaku. You then said that you only voiced the theory to get it out there. Next you say that actually you think me being buddies with moody is "too cute by half", implying you think other candidates are more likely buddies. Finally, you confirmed that you didn't think that I was most likely buddies with moody. You later claim that it was to put pressure on me. Exactly how did you plan to achieve this given you so quickly backed down on the idea?

Most recently, he seems to be more than happy to follow Sabrar's plan with no thought to analyse it at all. I'm leaning scum on Liri now, and am not opposed to him being lynched if others prefer him to flicky. The only reason I'm not switching now is because there were still some brief town tells early D1, which has me doubting the rest of my read of him a little still.

Madge: Hasn't said much since my full reads list previously. Her vote for Liri seems to be without any actual explanation of why him instead of Sabrar or Suzaku/flicky that I've seen. She dislikes Sabrar for not including himself in the list (fair), but then doesn't actually propose fixes or similar. Still feeling scummy, because she doesn't feel like she's putting much effort in.

Moody: He observed a similar thing to what I did about the potential fake day kill made by Sabrar, but what I find interesting is his lack of conclusions he draws at that point, despite noting somitomi's reaction. He seems to be giving Sabrar an auto-pass for his power, which as I've recently noted elsewhere actually isn't guaranteed to be not-scum.
moody7277 wrote:Madge is who I have my most firm scum read on. If it were to be the team you mention, she'd be the indep; no way do I see her as town. Proving any connection with Suzaku will be hard as his predecessor had zero posts and he's had mostly tangential ones.
Moody's response in the above quote to my question as to why not Liri/Suzaku does not line up completely with what he'd previously said:
moody7277 wrote:So the scum teams that make sense are Madge-Liri or Madge-Suzaku.
which was very definitive that there were exactly two possible scum teams, so I find that a little odd. His comments on Sabrar's theory are reasonable, but he doesn't follow up with any "what does that imply" or "what should we do instead" comments. Overall, I'm still reading him as town, based on his earlier content I highlighted in my previous reads, but it has slipped a bit, as moody doesn't seem to be attempting to do anything to drive the game along (latest vote excepted).

Sabrar: Sabrar's day kill and explanation makes a lot of sense to me, and matches up with my read of the serious bits in between all the weirdness. It doesn't give him a free pass, but since then, he's been true to his word and is posting a lot of sense. I have some disagreements with his case, as previously outlined, but it seems to be reasonably sensible. I'm slightly surprised that he hasn't come back to explain this post:
Sabrar wrote:jimbob made an interesting mistake in his analysis and not just once if I understand it correctly. I think it comes from a townie mindset but I'll have to sleep on it.
I must admit that I have no idea what mistake he's referring to. @Sabrar - is it a mistake in my logic or assumptions? I'd appreciate it if you'd explain it if it is. Probably town overall.

Note that flicky is at L - 1: everybody should make sure to have their actions in and any thoughts they have down as soon as feasible, but without hammering flicky until everybody is ready.

Town
Sabrar
bessie
moody
Madge
Liri
flicky
Scum
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Re: Secret Santa Day 2 - An Explosive Night

Postby Sabrar » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:21 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I must admit that I have no idea what mistake he's referring to. @Sabrar - is it a mistake in my logic or assumptions? I'd appreciate it if you'd explain it if it is.
Oops. Busy day at office plus game slowing down made me completely forget about it.
You comment more than once on a scum-pair being possible and conclude that part of your analysis with "Sabrar being scum does not change this." However we know there are only 2 scum (because LYLO would be announced otherwise) so if I'm scum then those pairs become automatically impossible.


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