Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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flicky1991
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:57 pm UTC

Still in the middle of reading everyone, just posting if I find something I want to ask about.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Sabrar’s plan is pretty solid
What plan were you referring to here?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:02 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I assume you used 'woof' in crossover to subtly influence Zen. You could have done the same here with bessie.

Oh hmm, since we were scum together you didn't actually evaluate why I was woofing in crossover. It wasn't a Jedi mind trick, in crossover, "Woof" meant, "Zen, I was also thinking this exact thing that you posted."

(the choice of a cute Pomiranian-chihuahua mix as my avatar was to manipulate Bessie though... :P )

BoomFrog wrote:(Btw, I basically agree with everything LaserGuy has laid against you, including active lurking.)
I'm pretty sure you're Town so I can't place this anywhere.
At what point did you decide I am likely town?

I'm about 85% sure LaserGuy is town, so if you can get over the OMGUS can you try rereading him? His points against you are pretty fair. He focused on Cemper because I was pointing at Cemper as a second choice and LG feels I'm town.

Regarding active lurking: The first 3.5 pages of the game your content is entirely neutral one liners and gentle prodding. Your two significant points are one against somitomi for a timing issue. (Btw, why have you not followed up about somitomi ignoring your point?) and one about Moody having a bad read of PW.

@LaserGuy: Why do you not want to post a town to scum list?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:04 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:Still in the middle of reading everyone, just posting if I find something I want to ask about.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Sabrar’s plan is pretty solid
What plan were you referring to here?

I'm pretty sure he meant LaserGuy's plan. I'll let you decide what this error reveals about PW's alignment.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:07 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:By the way, I must say I am disappointed you broke character. Later today, I was going to post a Doggy Dictionary consisting of generic responses for you to use as quotes.

Sorry to disappoint, I had not counted you in the entertained category since you hadn't said anything. This is actually the bit of information I was trying to obliquely unearth. Thank you, although I'm disappointed too now... :(
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:09 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:Still in the middle of reading everyone, just posting if I find something I want to ask about.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Sabrar’s plan is pretty solid
What plan were you referring to here?

I'm pretty sure he meant LaserGuy's plan. I'll let you decide what this error reveals about PW's alignment.
I wanted to hear from Whale what he meant. But "thanks" for giving him an out.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:11 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Untrue.
Completely different question.

Non the less, it was the answer that satisfied me, even if intending to answer a different question. Anyway, I don't think it's worth splitting this particular hair any thinner.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:13 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:Still in the middle of reading everyone, just posting if I find something I want to ask about.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Sabrar’s plan is pretty solid
What plan were you referring to here?

I'm pretty sure he meant LaserGuy's plan. I'll let you decide what this error reveals about PW's alignment.
I wanted to hear from Whale what he meant. But "thanks" for giving him an out.

Sorry, I considered that, but thought confusion was more likely then prodding. I'll retrain myself next time. :oops:
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:16 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:At what point did you decide I am likely town?
At first here. It was reinforced here.

BoomFrog wrote:I'm about 85% sure LaserGuy is town, so if you can get over the OMGUS can you try rereading him?
You were right about GoP in Shakespeare so I'm willing to give it a go. You're completely wrong about me so forgive me if I don't take your word for it.

BoomFrog wrote:He focused on Cemper because I was pointing at Cemper as a second choice and LG feels I'm town.
This is your ego talking. He's sheeping you.

BoomFrog wrote:Regarding active lurking: The first 3.5 pages of the game your content is entirely neutral one liners and gentle prodding.
I like to chat. Also I got voted by LaserGuy on the first page. That takes my attention. Also disagree about your whole premise. :D

BoomFrog wrote:Your two significant points
Disagree that there are only two.

BoomFrog wrote:(Btw, why have you not followed up about somitomi ignoring your point?)
A lot of people are/were ignoring my point. I'm willing to wait a bit but it's definitely noted.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:16 pm UTC

Just more stuff noticed while rereading.
moody7277 wrote:The main concern I have with LaserGuy's plan of action is its necessity of PR claiming late D1 or D2. I've been rightly gigged about expecting them to publish results as soon as they are available in previous games, at least one of which when I was scum.
Not sure exactly how to interpret this - are you saying "Laser's plan is wrong because it's a bad idea for PRs to claim", or "Laser's plan is wrong because I don't expect PRs to voluntarily claim"? I have no idea what "rightly gigged" means.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:20 pm UTC

The actual reads post will be in about an hour, unfortunately.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby wam » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:36 pm UTC

Current Votals

Sabrar - 2 (BoomFrog, LaserGuy)
BoomFrog - 1 (Vicarin)
Bessie - 1 (cemper93)
Laserguy - 1 (Sabrar)

Not voting: Peaceful Whale, somitomi, Hari Seldon, bessie, flicky1991, moody7277, jimbobmacdoodle

With 12 alive hammer requires 7 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
No deadline has yet been set.


Ps these were done on my phone sorry if I missed any.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:41 pm UTC

One of my mafia strategies is to bring about unusual situations so that scum will not be able to react in a routine manner since there is no routine. The result is that town reacts naturally and scum wait to react until they see town react and then try to copy a townie reaction. It's also fun. So here's what I've gleaned from the reactions to my acute caninanthropy:

Players who got it, and defended me: <3 Bessie <3 , LaserGuy, Jimbobmacdoodle
These players know my meta and understood I was trying to generate a reaction in order help scum hunting. They are all good enough players to fake it, so not guaranteed town, but big townie points.

Players who got it but were slow to defend me: Sabrar
Perhaps it's the distraction of my vote on him, or just Sabrar general coolness, but another explanation was that Sabrar was having trouble deciding if he should find me townie or neutral or even scummy for my woofing. It feels like he waited for Bessie's post and then followed her lead.

Players who got it and ignored it: Hari Seldon
I can imagine many townie and scummy reasons for Hari to hold back from commenting on my shenanigans, but it most seems to be a play style. I'm not getting any strong alignment indication from him either way.

Players who didn't get it, and were angry with me: somitomi, Vicarin, flicky1991
From the perspective that my woofing was not helpful to town, this is the sensible reaction. It seemed I was not playing well as scum or as town, and that is just frustrating for them. They didn't find me scummy, but they did threaten me with the only tool they have, the lynch, to try and force better play. Townie points here for natural reactions.

Players who didn't get it and thought it means I'm scum: moody7277, cemper93
cemper93 wrote:Posting nothing but "woof" adds confusion, doesn't help town in any way and is a safe position for scum to hide in. If BoomFrog is not scum, I don't know what he's trying to do here. This kind of behavior is policy-lynchable.
The underlined portions are contradictory. He doesn't have any clear concept of what I am doing as scum which makes me think that he is not really seriously considering that I am scum and choosing to play like this. That mental disconnect is much more likely coming from scum.

moody7277 wrote:BoomFrog: woofing up a storm. no special role reason he should be doing this (c.f. silly!Sabrar from SS2017), so I'm reading this as active lurking in 20-foot high flaming letters. Unless this corrects real soon, he looks very lynchable.
Hard to parse if "very lynchable" means scummy, or is just a threat to force me to shape up and play better. I feel like it's the former but I'm less confident about moody then cemper (especially since moody always looks scummy).

Players who are Peaceful Whale: Peaceful Whale
Yep, he get's his own category. This post was very interesting:
Peaceful Whale wrote:Purely scumswho doesn’t care?
Developing a new language?
Creating a master plan and is distracting us?
Not realizing that they’re woofing?
Filter?
Evil mod?

This is the kind of stream of consciousness posting that I love to evaluate. He's just spouting off whatever he can think of. Notice he didn't propose "townie who doesn't care" or "townie messing around". If PW was scum he would know for a fact that I'm town and I don't think he would have excluded that possibility. I think this catagory is actually, "People who didn't get it but didn't care." which puts him in a townie natural reaction category. Townie points here too.

So my bottom four are Sabrar, cemper, moody, Hari. I think my confidence is strongest on Cemper.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:47 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:He focused on Cemper because I was pointing at Cemper as a second choice and LG feels I'm town.
This is your ego talking. He's sheeping you.
He totally is. So is Bessie. But what if I'm right, and they are just townies who see the light of my truth and I've actually caught the entire scum team D1 with my shenanigans? Hmm? HMM!? :shock:

It's possible... :D
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:49 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@LaserGuy: Why do you not want to post a town to scum list?


While I was modding Secret Santa, I played a couple games over at Mafiascum (here and here), where reads/ordered lists are generally not a part of the site meta. Some people do them, but not a lot. It didn't seem to really have any detrimental effect on Town as long as people were still making their thoughts known. Part of the argument against them being that reads list allows scum to optimize their night kills by targeting universal townreads, or to more easily avoid protective roles by avoiding those sorts of players. Since we possibly have possibly two players that mafia need to dodge (doc/watcher), I can see the argument for this game that maybe such lists aren't necessarily universally helpful to Town. In any event, I'm happy to experiment and see how it works out.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:50 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:Just more stuff noticed while rereading.
moody7277 wrote:The main concern I have with LaserGuy's plan of action is its necessity of PR claiming late D1 or D2. I've been rightly gigged about expecting them to publish results as soon as they are available in previous games, at least one of which when I was scum.
Not sure exactly how to interpret this - are you saying "Laser's plan is wrong because it's a bad idea for PRs to claim", or "Laser's plan is wrong because I don't expect PRs to voluntarily claim"? I have no idea what "rightly gigged" means.


Any particular reason why you're commenting on these random posts instead of recent events?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:52 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:At what point did you decide I am likely town?
At first here. It was reinforced here.

I'm not bothering to check timestamps and figure out when those correlated to in the thread. But why did you choose to keep your opinion secret? And what were your reasons, that you conveniently kept a record of (unless you have a good reason to keep, keeping them secret)?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:53 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:@LaserGuy: Why do you not want to post a town to scum list?


While I was modding Secret Santa, I played a couple games over at Mafiascum (here and here), where reads/ordered lists are generally not a part of the site meta. Some people do them, but not a lot. It didn't seem to really have any detrimental effect on Town as long as people were still making their thoughts known. Part of the argument against them being that reads list allows scum to optimize their night kills by targeting universal townreads, or to more easily avoid protective roles by avoiding those sorts of players. Since we possibly have possibly two players that mafia need to dodge (doc/watcher), I can see the argument for this game that maybe such lists aren't necessarily universally helpful to Town. In any event, I'm happy to experiment and see how it works out.

Fair. So who are your bottom four?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:57 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:(unless you have a good reason to keep, keeping them secret)?
If you really can't guess it, I'll reveal.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:03 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:@LaserGuy: Why do you not want to post a town to scum list?


While I was modding Secret Santa, I played a couple games over at Mafiascum (here and here), where reads/ordered lists are generally not a part of the site meta. Some people do them, but not a lot. It didn't seem to really have any detrimental effect on Town as long as people were still making their thoughts known. Part of the argument against them being that reads list allows scum to optimize their night kills by targeting universal townreads, or to more easily avoid protective roles by avoiding those sorts of players. Since we possibly have possibly two players that mafia need to dodge (doc/watcher), I can see the argument for this game that maybe such lists aren't necessarily universally helpful to Town. In any event, I'm happy to experiment and see how it works out.

Fair. So who are your bottom four?


Sabrar, cemp and Hari are my strongest scumleans at the moment, probably in that order. Not sure about the 4th... one of somitomi, moody or jimbob, I guess, but none of them have really posted anything I feel is strongly alignment indicative.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:07 pm UTC

wam wrote:Note as this is a newbie game, the mods will do their best to answer all questions.
LaserGuy wrote:If mafia has some PRs of their own, especially a roleblocker, this could backfire, though. I kind of feel a mafia RB would be unfair in this sort of setup, but that doesn't mean there isn't one.
Speaking of questions that should have been asked, why haven't you asked instead of speculating?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:10 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
wam wrote:Note as this is a newbie game, the mods will do their best to answer all questions.
LaserGuy wrote:If mafia has some PRs of their own, especially a roleblocker, this could backfire, though. I kind of feel a mafia RB would be unfair in this sort of setup, but that doesn't mean there isn't one.
Speaking of questions that should have been asked, why haven't you asked instead of speculating?


Vicarin asked here and was answered here.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:14 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Cop claims. Doctor protects cop, watcher watches cop, tracker tracks cop.
From a scum!perspective this gives them a rough 75% chance of Town not getting any relevant results out of N1 (with conservative estimates). As explained by both myself and others knowing which role is effective is a very small gain for Town. And this is LaserGuy's best scenario...

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:15 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Vicarin asked here and was answered here.
You're completely ignoring the issue. It was you who brought it up and you should have immediately asked the mod instead of speculating.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:17 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Any particular reason why you're commenting on these random posts instead of recent events?
Because I'm rereading and posting what jumps out at me. Right now I'm flicking back and forth between the reread and the latest posts.

(Also, the "about an hour" estimate in my last post was way too optimistic. It will be before 10pm, i.e. in 40 minutes from now.)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:17 pm UTC

I have to revise that math. 75% is way too conservative.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:20 pm UTC

No, 75% feels right as conservative limit, more like 80% if Cop is good and lucky.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:35 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I'm about 85% sure LaserGuy is town,
What is the basis of your read?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:45 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Vicarin: His thoughts on LaserGuy's plans and when the PRs should claim seem to be fairly similar to my own, though he does come to some incorrect conclusions (e.g. if a tracker sees A visiting B, but B does not die, it does not confirm that A is town - they could have been targeted by a doctor for instance). I don't like how he's only focused on this discussion though.


This is true, but seeing as the NK gets blocked in that case, it should be pretty obvious to the tracker that they can't assume A is town for that night. Any time the NK does go through, they can.
...Couldn't that also mean A was the scum that killed B? Also, your original post was about them being able to assume A was town if B didn't die.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:55 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I'm about 85% sure LaserGuy is town,
What is the basis of your read?
His plan is so terrible, I'd expect scum!LaserGuy to be more cautious about advocating a plan so clearly bad for town. That got me to about 75%. I also liked that he reacted naturally to my shenanigans. Although, now that I am scrutinizing more and trying to compensate for ego, it is odd that he is willing to trust me after getting burned so badly in CrossOver.

@LaserGuy why do you think I'm town? How can you trust me not to be masterfully manipulating you again?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:56 pm UTC

and @LG: What makes you suspect Hari is scum?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:59 pm UTC

Grr I'm running out of time before I'm doing other things for another hour, and I'm only halfway down page 4 of the reread. I have no idea how the regulars manage to get all this analysis done - do you have, like, two hours a day to spare or something?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:01 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:His plan is so terrible, I'd expect scum!LaserGuy to be more cautious about advocating a plan so clearly bad for town.

Sorry, that was mean. I was going for shock value to make it funny. It's not clearly bad, and it's worth discussing to get something to discuss D1. But, although it feels like a worthwhile goal to solve the puzzle of the sanities, knowing the sanities will only be useful in the case that they actually get a result, so it's a non-issue. Also, as someone else (I believe Hari) pointed out, keeping the sanities unknown to scum actually helps makes the PRs more useful since scum may try to dodge a doctor who can't actually protect.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:25 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I'm about 85% sure LaserGuy is town,
What is the basis of your read?
His plan is so terrible, I'd expect scum!LaserGuy to be more cautious about advocating a plan so clearly bad for town. That got me to about 75%. I also liked that he reacted naturally to my shenanigans. Although, now that I am scrutinizing more and trying to compensate for ego, it is odd that he is willing to trust me after getting burned so badly in CrossOver.

@LaserGuy why do you think I'm town? How can you trust me not to be masterfully manipulating you again?


It was obvious your Woofing was a gambit, which is something I've seen you do as Town before on two occasions (DT and Shakespeare). So my initial inclination was to read this the same way to start with.

Thinking about it more, I tried to figure out which players in this roster would not immediately freak out if you came into scumchat and said "Hey guys! I'm going to bark like a dog for the entire game." Would you do that to flicky or somitomi, who have (AFAIK) never played as scum before? Peaceful Whale? This is a newbie game, and my impression of you is that you would probably go out of your way to help your newbie partners, if you had any, not put them in a situation where they would feel you were a liability. A few others, like, say, bessie, probably just wouldn't want to go along with it. About half of the players in the game I feel comfortable immediately crossing off as potential buddies for you. The pool of potential scumteams for you is sufficiently small that I think it's much more likely that you're Town than scum, which is good enough for D1.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Peaceful Whale » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:41 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:Still in the middle of reading everyone, just posting if I find something I want to ask about.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Sabrar’s plan is pretty solid
What plan were you referring to here?


I believe I was reffering to LaserGuy’s plan, (thanks boomfrog :P )however as I read through Sabrar’s posts, I’m not so sure anymore.

Sabrar wrote:The thing about the proposed PR-claiming schemes is that they offer little reward. I also investigated several options, starting from 3 PR-s claiming, down to 2, down to 1, up to all 4, down to 2 again. My conclusion in short is that the benefit of finding out sanity is not worth outing the PR-s and wasting their N1 checks. Evidently we should come back to this discussion when we have more info on the effectiveness of some of these roles but for now I'm against it.

Yep, I agree with Sabrar now about the plan.
I’m still doing Sabrar. I got distracted making planters explode in blender... thought I’d have more time here.

Sabrar read coming up. He’s looking towny, and I feel most of the points against him is meta-wise. But I’ve never been good with judging meta...
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby somitomi » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:58 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:somitomi knows that role pm-s will be sent out later that day. He confirms as 10th player so game is sure to be underway when he wakes up. Later he claims to have forgotten that fact, knowing that Liri was town-read for a similar claim in Secret Santa.

You're giving me way too much credit. Besides, while this happened after the post in question, Peaceful Whale has been marked "suspicious" for the same thing in this game.
BoomFrog wrote: (Btw, why have you not followed up about somitomi ignoring your point?)

I haven't posted since that point was made clear, so I don't think I was ignoring anything.

I've been somewhat hindered in my attempts to catch up on the thread by having to chauffeur my grandfather today, sorry about that. In order of player list:
flicky1991 is quite observant although he seems to avoid opinionating on anyone. I think his question about the chat is a town tell though, so overall fairly townie
Peaceful Whale is his usual rambling self. I find it odd, that he decided BoomFrog is town and then discusses possible scummates for him in the same post, but it could be just him being thorough. Some of his reads feel a little non-committal, he didn't say much about jimbob or Hari for example. In summary slightly scummy
somitomi should post more
LaserGuy proposed two plans to find out which PRs are sane and I see no fault in his deduction butI have my doubts about the benefit of them. He has argued in favor of no lynch, which I found odd too. slightly scummy
Hari Seldon has little content, but it seems fairly okay to me. The scoring appears very analytical and it is a good indication of how strongly he feels about others, but some of the scores seem arbitrary. Leaning towards scum.
Vicarin has made some good points about the possible drawbacks of LaserGuy's schemes. Reads seem alright too, reasoanbly townie
Sabrar is quite argumentative, which I think is usual for him. He seems to have asked questions or made remarks about pretty much everyone in the game. Seems townie at the moment.
Jimbobmacdoodle has posted a quite thorough read and some minor remarks and questions. Made quite good points regarding the suggestions of LaserGuy and Hari. Townie1
BoomFrog has communicated in code for the most part, but eventually gave it up. I'm willing to accept his explanation (I had a tiny suspicion he was watching our reactions), leaning town.
moody7277 seems to be lurking. He posted opinions on some players, but they aren't too detailed. I don't see why he gets a good vibe from Vicarin for example. Scummy
bessie made a lot of remarks about what people have said. She defended BoomFrog quite strongly which I found odd and it could be experienced mafia trying to look town. I think she's town1
cemper93 flip-flopped about LaserGuys claim strategy and by my count he read five players as scum. I don't like the emphasis he puts on figuring out the PRs, so scummy

Probably ninja's by everyone...
1but Secret Santa makes me doubt myself a lot
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:05 pm UTC

@somitomi: you also have 5 people as scummy.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby somitomi » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:08 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@somitomi: you also have 5 people as scummy.

Huh, well what do you know. That wasn't something I consider alignment indicative though, just something I noticed.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:17 pm UTC

Good to see that BoomFrog didn't try to keep his act up forever. Although I figured why he was doing it, I'm not sure I could have followed everything he thought or planned through the course of the game.

flicky1991 wrote:I see BoomFrog's woofs as deliberately unhelpful. There is no good reason for town to play that way.
Now that BoomFrog has revealed his reasons, what do you think about him?

Vicarin bringing up the other reason for lynching D1 (i.e. that the votals are useful sources of information) is another good point indicating LaserGuy isn't really thinking through his proposal. If any evidence is needed, look no further than Secret Santa, where the D1 votals meant that had one player flipped scum, it all but confirmed three other players as town (it wasn't relevant though because they were town, but it still illustrates the point).

Vicarin also pointed out a probably town slip by flicky (asking about day/night chat confusion), which moves flicky futher towards town in my opinion of him. I think it likely that scum would have asked this up front in a PM during the confirmation phase. It's not definitive, since the "oh, look, I missed that scum have day chat" is becoming a bit of a cliché, so I expect somebody will at some point take advantage of that, or know to be more careful about it. I don't believe flicky is the sort of player who would likely try that sort of gambit as scum though. For these points, I'm moving Vicarin up tentatively into town as well.

On Hari Seldon's yin/yang point - a known watcher is not really a deterrent to scum any more than a possible watcher is, since scum will be trying to dodge who is going to be targeted anyway, but I don't think this discussion is really all that important, so I'll drop it.

Peaceful Whale wrote:
Peaceful Whale wrote: Game started about an hour after I was asleep, just woke up. However schools canceled... so I’ll be able to pooost a lot today. Let me read...

I don’t want to come off as judgmental so I apologize in advance if this is out of line, but confirmation phase started at 12:35 pm EST, and the game started at 5:13 pm EST. So this post is somewhat suspicious, like you’re trying to make up an excuse for lurking.
Peaceful Whale, please comment on this. Is bessie fair in her comments?

bessie is making a lot of good observations too. In particular, I like some of her needling of Peaceful Whale and flicky.

Sabrar, I may have missed this, but why is bessie town if BoomFrog is?

cemper - I'm not seeing how bessie's analysis is vote worthy. Could you highlight the specific bits of it that you dislike, please?

LaserGuy wrote:Are any other players in your final groupings different from what your reads say they are?
I consider my final groupings to be the definitive read, so no. I also don't like the tone of this question.

Responses to the following are in the spoiler:
LaserGuy wrote:I'm going to put this bit in spoilers because it's essentially theory that isn't really relevant to this particular game.

Spoiler:
Secondly, it omits the D1 probability of lynching scum.
No? The odds I'm talking about are the odds of hitting scum. The baseline odds of hitting scum D1 are 25% in this setup. If we No Lynch, the odds of hitting scum tomorrow are 27%. Hence, it is marginally more likely that we will hit scum D2 following a No Lynch D1.
I don't disagree with your No Lynch odds. What I disagree with is the end effect. We have a cumulative chance of hitting at least one scum over the course of 2 days as being (3/12 * 8/10) + (9/12 * 3/10) + (3/12 * 2/10) = 47.5%, if we lynch randomly each day, compared with 25%.

You are misunderstanding. In both scenarios there are the same number of lynches.
Okay, I see your point, but due to other aspects that are not covered by the stats (doctor save, successful PR hits, potential that scum will withhold the kill so as to confuse townie PRs), random lynching is not a good model, and there are significant benefits from lynching D1, as noted elsewhere.


@somitomi - have you been scum yet? I'm asking because of the "slip" you supposedly made. I doubt newbie scum would attempt to fake a slip (well, PW might, but I think that might not be so much faked as accidental...).

I'm currently uncertain on how to read Sabrar versus LaserGuy. On the one hand, at least some of LaserGuy's points against Sabrar are valid, but on the other hand, I am reading LaserGuy as scummier than Sabrar from other content (plus some of Sabrar's points are valid too). I very much doubt they are both scum, but this is certainly not a clear-cut town versus town scuffle. I am going to have to review them both in depth at a later point.

This post has taken way too long to craft, and I haven't really read page 6 properly. It'll have to do for now.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:25 pm UTC

Hallelujah

Unvote

Overall, I think BoomFrog has provided good enough reasons for what he did, and has been contributing a lot, so I'm happy to put him as Town.

flicky1991 wrote:
Vicarin wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Vicarin: His thoughts on LaserGuy's plans and when the PRs should claim seem to be fairly similar to my own, though he does come to some incorrect conclusions (e.g. if a tracker sees A visiting B, but B does not die, it does not confirm that A is town - they could have been targeted by a doctor for instance). I don't like how he's only focused on this discussion though.


This is true, but seeing as the NK gets blocked in that case, it should be pretty obvious to the tracker that they can't assume A is town for that night. Any time the NK does go through, they can.
...Couldn't that also mean A was the scum that killed B? Also, your original post was about them being able to assume A was town if B didn't die.


Ok, I'll break it down (as this wording is getting confusing otherwise), 3 cases.

Tracker follows A, and sees:
A targets B, someone other than B dies -> means that A is town PR, 100%.
A targets B, B dies -> A is super suspicious, but technically could be a PR.
A targets B, noone dies -> odds are that A is a power role (3 town people visiting other people, 1 scum), but not confirmed. Also, yay Doctor.

Basically, the tracker has 2 pieces of info, who their target visited, AND who dies that night. Which allows for a fair bit more to be determined.

I'm going to switch to

Vote: Somitomi

As I was kind of worried before, and now this exchange is kind of hilarious:

somitomi wrote:cemper93 flip-flopped about LaserGuys claim strategy and by my count he read five players as scum. I don't like the emphasis he puts on figuring out the PRs, so scummy


somitomi wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@somitomi: you also have 5 people as scummy.

Huh, well what do you know. That wasn't something I consider alignment indicative though, just something I noticed.


which reads as trying to backtrack, as why mention the 5 players as scum thing unless you think it's indicative?

I'm also somewhat worried about moody7277 (who definitely needs to do some more posts), and cemper93.

Ninja'd by Jimbobmacdoodle: Gotta be careful with those quote tags, you've got Peaceful Whale berating himself there (though the discussion tells me it's bessie). This game's going to be hard enough without misattributing stuff.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby cemper93 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:34 pm UTC

Trying to keep up with the activity in this game. I'll have less time to post on the weekend, so I can't make promises as to when my next post will be.

somitomi wrote:
cemper93 wrote:If cop only gets town results or watcher / tracker only get "no movement", these don't help confirm townies. IMO that's a large problem, and bessie pings me slightly for not seeing that. (Everyone else who doesn't see that is not bessie, so they're OK.)
It seems to me the chances of whichever PR hitting scum increase as time goes on, so a sane cop/watcher/tracker should eventually get a positive result retroactively confirming all "town/no movement" results.

My intuition didn't quite tell me that this "should" happen before the cop dies, so I ran the numbers.

The conservative estimate is that we mislynch on D1, D2 and D3. (I call this the "conservative" estimate because with more scum around, the cop has a higher chance of hitting some.) Taking into account that the cop might die, if we assume that the cop investigates randomly (and might re-investigate prior targets, which makes no sense, but I suck at maths) there is a 22.22% chance that they have claimed a guilty result by D2, a 47.41% chance that they have claimed a guilty result by D3 and a 64.14% chance that they have claimed by D4 (which is MYLO).

In the case where we lynch correctly on D1 and D2, there is still a 57.81% chance that the cop was able to get in a guilty result by D4, not taking into account that the cop getting in a guilty result causes correct lynching.

Given that the cop will not actually investigate randomly, the chances are actually much better than this.

In short: if PRs play normally, there is a 35-45% chance we will get nothing out of the cop. It is much less likely we won't get anything out of any PR. My intuition was therefore wrong, and we should not play any gambits.

somitomi wrote:
Vicarin wrote:Just chiming in to say that the above quote here was originally bessie, not me. Not sure how that happened.
:shock: How did I mess up the quote tags this much?

Yeah, how did you? You weren't even quoting Vicarin in the same post. Did you think about saying something about Vicarin that you then didn't say? If so, what was it?

flicky1991 wrote:Still in the middle of reading everyone, just posting if I find something I want to ask about.

"Just posting if you find something" is way too thin given that so far, you have not contributed much of value and multiple people have wanted you to post more substantial content, me included.

BoomFrog wrote:
cemper93 wrote:Posting nothing but "woof" adds confusion, doesn't help town in any way and is a safe position for scum to hide in. If BoomFrog is not scum, I don't know what he's trying to do here. This kind of behavior is policy-lynchable.
The underlined portions are contradictory. He doesn't have any clear concept of what I am doing as scum which makes me think that he is not really seriously considering that I am scum and choosing to play like this. That mental disconnect is much more likely coming from scum.

I don't consider these statements to be contradictory. My point is that allowing you to continue woofing is bad whether you're scum or not. I also have a pretty clear concept of why you might play this way if you're scum, namely to have an excuse for lurking and not committing to your opinions. It's a strategy I myself have used with some success.

BoomFrog, on PeacefulWhale, wrote:This is the kind of stream of consciousness posting that I love to evaluate. He's just spouting off whatever he can think of. Notice he didn't propose "townie who doesn't care" or "townie messing around". If PW was scum he would know for a fact that I'm town and I don't think he would have excluded that possibility. I think this catagory is actually, "People who didn't get it but didn't care." which puts him in a townie natural reaction category. Townie points here too.

Why do you feel that not being pinged by weird and inexplicable behaviour is a "townie natural reaction"? Why does suspiciously excluding the only possibility that PeacefulWhale, if scum, would not want town to know he knows is true give him townie points?

BoomFrog wrote:But, although it feels like a worthwhile goal to solve the puzzle of the sanities, knowing the sanities will only be useful in the case that they actually get a result, so it's a non-issue.

Regardless of the fact that I do not want to run the gambits, this is still plain and simple an untrue statement. Knowing their sanities is important for cop and tracker because it allows them to clear people. I think it's interesting you don't understand that, given that I already FoS'd bessie for not getting this.

somitomi wrote:cemper93 flip-flopped about LaserGuys claim strategy and by my count he read five players as scum. I don't like the emphasis he puts on figuring out the PRs, so scummy

Sabrar has already asked about the first half of this, but I still want to ask about the second half. Do you believe that town players do not care about effective use of PR, or are you accusing me of having no other content? You may want to re-think or re-read.

@jimbob I'll post a more detailed reading of bessie later, it's getting late. She's still in my bottom four though, along with BoomFrog, PeacefulWhale and flicky.


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