Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:37 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Vicarin bringing up the other reason for lynching D1 (i.e. that the votals are useful sources of information) is another good point indicating LaserGuy isn't really thinking through his proposal. If any evidence is needed, look no further than Secret Santa, where the D1 votals meant that had one player flipped scum, it all but confirmed three other players as town (it wasn't relevant though because they were town, but it still illustrates the point).

Okay, I see your point, but due to other aspects that are not covered by the stats (doctor save, successful PR hits, potential that scum will withhold the kill so as to confuse townie PRs), random lynching is not a good model, and there are significant benefits from lynching D1, as noted elsewhere.


And all of these benefits would still be available on D2, in exactly the same fashion as they're available on D1, except we would have the added advantage of having the N1 night results available to analyse (at the cost, admittedly, of one townie). It's basically just transposing the game from a 12 player game with a day start into an 11 player game with a night start. I think this is the last I'll say on this matter as nobody seems particularly interested in this course of action anyway. I'm happy to discuss with you further in GoJoe after the game if you're interested.

But to pivot this discussion away from the theory and back to something more pertinent: Why do you think my proposal is scum-wrong instead of Town-wrong? Why are you only commenting on my content from Page 1 and not anything else I've posted?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby wam » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:38 pm UTC

Madge is replacing moody effective now
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:39 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:"Just posting if you find something" is way too thin given that so far, you have not contributed much of value and multiple people have wanted you to post more substantial content, me included.
Are people not reading my posts? I'm in the process of making a full reads list but it's taking a while. Until then, I'm posting random thoughts if they occur to me in the process of making that post.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:44 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:
somitomi wrote:
Vicarin wrote:Just chiming in to say that the above quote here was originally bessie, not me. Not sure how that happened.
:shock: How did I mess up the quote tags this much?

Yeah, how did you? You weren't even quoting Vicarin in the same post. Did you think about saying something about Vicarin that you then didn't say? If so, what was it?
The bessie post that somi was quoting contained a quote from Vicarin. Easy enough mistake to make.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:47 pm UTC

Well, have to see what Madge has to say when she replaces moody. Though she's going to be annoyed that we're still in day 1, heh.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:53 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:The bessie post that somi was quoting contained a quote from Vicarin. Easy enough mistake to make.


While this is true, my quote and bessie's statement were very, very separated. And at different nested quote levels. Not sure what happened.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Suzaku » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:59 pm UTC

Current Votals

Sabrar - 1 (LaserGuy)
bessie - 1 (cemper93)
LaserGuy - 1 (Sabrar)
cemper93 - 1 (BoomFrog)
somitomi - 1 (Vicarin)

Not voting: Peaceful Whale, somitomi, Hari Seldon, bessie, flicky1991, Madge, jimbobmacdoodle

With 12 alive hammer requires 7 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
No deadline has yet been set.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:01 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:and @LG: What makes you suspect Hari is scum?


My general impression about his point assignments this game is that they are much more arbitrary than his previous iteration in Hallowe'en. Just as an example, I find it interesting that HS has not commented at all on Peaceful Whale, when PW has a fair amount of content in pages 1-3 and HS spent a considerable amount of time analyzing PW in Hallowe'en mafia. HS was also asking more questions in his reads, providing more analysis, and generally engaging in the thread more.

On specifics, I find it interesting that he compared my play in this game to Hallowe'en' at all, since in that game I wasn't Town, but an indie and was deliberately trying to draw the night kill.

I'm not sure what to make of the fact that he claims a town lean on you is not justifiable here:
Hari Seldon wrote: I have a suspicion that Laser's change in content is a reaction to my note. I do not think a town lean on BoomFrog is justifiable. His subsequent reaction to the BoomFrog pressure gives me buddy vibes. [-0.2].

when he himself obviously has some opinion of your play here:
Hari Seldon wrote:You're not someone I can form a hard opinion on this early. I know you would play this way as either alignment. I definitely disagree with your Town readings, particularly LaserGuy.

I know enough. I have fully read Crossover and skimmed through Shakespeare III and TDT. So far your play this game is most similar to your fool play in Shakespeare. You are very ambiguous player. I failed to predict your alignment in Crossover, but I do believe I have picked up on a reliable tell.


I'm not positive he's scum by any stretch of the imagination, but there's some weirdness that I don't like. There's probably also some OMGUS mixed in there too.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:01 am UTC

Hi Madge! Thanks for replacing.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby somitomi » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:06 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
cemper93 wrote:
somitomi wrote:
Vicarin wrote:Just chiming in to say that the above quote here was originally bessie, not me. Not sure how that happened.
:shock: How did I mess up the quote tags this much?

Yeah, how did you? You weren't even quoting Vicarin in the same post. Did you think about saying something about Vicarin that you then didn't say? If so, what was it?
The bessie post that somi was quoting contained a quote from Vicarin. Easy enough mistake to make.

Probably this, I don't remember having any particular thoughts about Vicarin at that point. I probably messed up deleting the irrelevant parts of a long bessie post.
cemper93 wrote:Sabrar has already asked about the first half of this, but I still want to ask about the second half. Do you believe that town players do not care about effective use of PR, or are you accusing me of having no other content? You may want to re-think or re-read.

Neither. I just think mafia would be more likely to advocate some form of claiming, since power roles are their primary targets. Here you said not knowing the sanity of the power roles is a large problem, which I took to mean you were in favor of LaserGuy's plans. I see you have revisited your opinion by now, which makes me feel better about you.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:08 am UTC

cemper93 wrote:Knowing their sanities is important for cop and tracker because it allows them to clear people. I think it's interesting you don't understand that, given that I already FoS'd bessie for not getting this.
Tracker doesn't clear anyone until we are down to a single mafia. It seems unlikely that tracker and watcher will both not have any results by that point and still have ambiguous sanities. There is no way to force a result for cop or doctor unless you can trick scum into targeting someone specific for the doctor to try and save, which seems hard when we are discussing the plan publicly.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Madge » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:09 am UTC

Okay I started writing this post in a gojoe spoiler like half an hour ago in preperation for receiving my role PM, but I received my role PM as I was writing it, so it's hot off the presses as they say! I hope you all enjoy some rare D1 content from me because I have a lot to say after being dropped in so late:

- I really like the idea of having everyone target the same person and having town!watcher verify the doctor/cop. This doesn't even need to out a power role, we can just have everyone target, say, BoomFrog together. Downside of this is that if boomfrog is the watcher he has to claim because the scheme won't work (actually - it will still show real!tracker that BoomFrog is a PR, but if BoomFrog is real!watcher we don't get anything useful from that gambit). So if we went for that gambit, you would either need to target the tracker to mass-determine sanities, or just mass-target someone who claims vanilla - but that has the problem of a bunch of well-meaning people claiming vanilla and then scum's PR hitlist gets MUCH smaller (vanilla people - DO NOT CLAIM YET). Hmmmm. (Then again, as Sabrar says, it's wasting a N1 check, especially for the cop, who would have to go along with this. And if Sabrar is the cop he would probably not go along with this and the whole plan would be wasted)

@Sabrar: Hypothetically speaking, if you were the cop, and the consensus was that cop and watcher both target the same player, would you oblige or would you not want to participate in something you don't agree with (i assume this is the same whichever relevant PR you have but if it's not please discuss)

(expanded thoughts on the above: lay out each sanity combo and work out if "all target one person" plan is helpful or not).

- I think woof!BoomFrog is hilarious and I think he wouldn't dare do that as scum (wine , wine, wine). I also think he's saying enough for us to understand him. I'm not sure why he's doing it, if it becomes his new playstyle I'm less of a fan as it's funny for one game / one day but not permanently. Actually scratch that I just got to the "woof woof grrr" and if anyone wants to make a novelty mafia account and play this way I would lov eit (SDK, are you reading right now? Please do it!) (NO! BOOMFROG MADE A REAL POST. I AM SAD AF)

- LaserGuy NL - I'm happy to NL if the consensus does it, but I know that's anathema around here so I'm saying that with caution. I think random lynch is sadly closer to reality than people are prepared to admit. (Is Deva still lurking around the place? how successful has town been with voting scum on D1? I swear I might do these stats myself.)

(added later: LaserGuy posts a statistic: "Lynch Accuracy spoiler: Over 450 games, in Matrix6 setup town mislynches 79% of the time on D1 compared to 77.7% predicted by chance" - so they actually do slightly worse than chance, which I can believe because scum can gang up on townies / defend each other)

(added even later: the more detailed discussion is beginning to sway me over that NL is a bad idea - that said I'm quite happy not to drop it, LaserGuy, if you want to explore it more. But if you're done then I'll not waste energy on calculating probabilities).

@Jimbob: If the statistics showed that on D1 town only got scum at chance levels (or only very slightly above chance levels), would that change your opinion on NL today?

- FWIW I didn't think sanity would be revealed in the flip. It's clear that the intent of the game is for town not to know which PRs are sane or not (which is a concept I LOVE btw), so having sanities reveal on flip would immediately let us know what the score was.

- Bessie is on the war path and I love it. Are you scum again? What if that's your new meta - freezeblade 2.0 :lol:

- Should I change my avatar? I've got a greyhound so there'd be no woofing, my content would be *sleep sleep* with a *runs madly down the hallway* sprinkled in every 10 posts.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:13 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I'm not sure what to make of the fact that he claims a town lean on you is not justifiable here:
Hari Seldon wrote: I have a suspicion that Laser's change in content is a reaction to my note. I do not think a town lean on BoomFrog is justifiable. His subsequent reaction to the BoomFrog pressure gives me buddy vibes. [-0.2].

when he himself obviously has some opinion of your play here:
Hari Seldon wrote:You're not someone I can form a hard opinion on this early. I know you would play this way as either alignment. I definitely disagree with your Town readings, particularly LaserGuy.

I know enough. I have fully read Crossover and skimmed through Shakespeare III and TDT. So far your play this game is most similar to your fool play in Shakespeare. You are very ambiguous player. I failed to predict your alignment in Crossover, but I do believe I have picked up on a reliable tell.

He has an opinion. His opinion is that I am hard to read early and you are not justified in town-reading me early. That seems consistent.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:25 am UTC

@Madge: The biggest value of the PRs is that they are confirmed town. The chance of being sane, and getting a useful result is quite low. As long as the PRs claim sometime before MYLO/LYLO scum won't counter claim, so there's no need to jump through hoops trying to prepare confirmation of something that likely doesn't need confirmation. I know you love solving the puzzle, but this puzzle is meant to sit on the coffee table and just be admired, but not touched until a later day.

Also sorry I didn't stick to woofs all game. I could have done it in a non-newbie game.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:44 am UTC

I'm trying an avatar now because I swear I'm invisible to some people if I don't have one (looking at you, PeacefulWhale).

Madge wrote: - LaserGuy NL - I'm happy to NL if the consensus does it, but I know that's anathema around here so I'm saying that with caution. I think random lynch is sadly closer to reality than people are prepared to admit. (Is Deva still lurking around the place? how successful has town been with voting scum on D1? I swear I might do these stats myself.)

(added later: LaserGuy posts a statistic: "Lynch Accuracy spoiler: Over 450 games, in Matrix6 setup town mislynches 79% of the time on D1 compared to 77.7% predicted by chance" - so they actually do slightly worse than chance, which I can believe because scum can gang up on townies / defend each other)

(added even later: the more detailed discussion is beginning to sway me over that NL is a bad idea - that said I'm quite happy not to drop it, LaserGuy, if you want to explore it more. But if you're done then I'll not waste energy on calculating probabilities).

@Jimbob: If the statistics showed that on D1 town only got scum at chance levels (or only very slightly above chance levels), would that change your opinion on NL today?


As I pointed out before, we really need something to go on D2, so voting records would be great, even with a mislynch. Doing a NL if people agree to it would not give nearly as much info, and with the percentages above, I'd read it as we get Mafia at almost chance levels, and a bunch of info from the flip and votals. Seems ok, especially since the night actions in this game could be really useless if we're no lynching (NL seems terrible if the Doctor is the effective one out of Doctor/Cop). If the Cop turns out to be effective at some point, then yes, a NL is good later on to get more info for them, but it's kind of hard for them to communicate this with everyone else (maybe if the Watcher knows they're effective and has claimed already, the Cop can claim too if they've hit scum before and then they'll pick up another scum if the cop gets hit first due to the Watcher seeing it? Even that only buys 1 more Cop result as the Watcher will be shot immediately). Overall, as has been pointed out by other people, the scum not knowing which roles are effective is really, really good for town, so PRs should keep that unknown for as long as possible.

BoomFrog wrote:Also sorry I didn't stick to woofs all game. I could have done it in a non-newbie game.


Oh god no.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:47 am UTC

GRAAAH I hate doing reads lists.

Content summary
Spoiler:
Peaceful Whale - Think "Sabrar's plan"(?) is good. Doesn't like woofs? Very meta-focused reads list.

somitomi - Prods at LaserGuy's plans. Against No Lynch. Dislikes BoomFrog early on, changes later. Now has scum reads for Whale/LG/HS/moody/cemper

LaserGuy - First to suggest a PR should claim and gives plans for this. First to imply mafia might have non-vanilla roles. Pushes No Lynch. Serious-votes Sabrar before Sabrar has any content - says it's because of a lack of questions. Questions cemper's reads.

Hari Seldon - Says it's not necessary for PRs to claim and suggests another plan where we instruct the Watcher who to target. Dislikes Vicarin for PR question and LaserGuy for targeting Sabrar and focusing on plans.

Vicarin - Suggested the plan of everyone aiming at one person. Points out flaws with LaserGuy's plans and doesn't want PRs to claim yet. No Mafia experience for a longtime but has read our games. Surprised sanity isn't revealed on death. Very much dislikes BoomFrog's woofs. Read post doesn't really point out anyone as scummy, later finds somi scummy for backtracking.

Sabrar - Doesn't want PRs to claim yet (has mentally gone through various plans). Brings up BoomFrog's previous use of woofing in Crossover. Considers the questions to the mods unnecessary. Dislikes somi (fake town slip) and PW (with moody as likely buddy). Argument with LaserGuy.

Jimbobmacdoodle - Doesn't want PRs to claim yet (except to avoid mislynch). Asks about hidden aspects. Biiiig reads post - dislikes Hari and LG.

BoomFrog - Woofs for ages. cemper93 scummy for going along with LaserGuy's plan, but LaserGuy not scummy. Agrees with everything LaserGuy thinks about Sabrar. Woofed in order to gather reactions, thinks Sabrar/cemper/moody/Hari scum.

moody7277 - Dislikes LaserGuy's plan. Thinks BoomFrog lynchable but not PW/LG/Hari.

bessie - Doesn't want PRs to claim yet. Pokes at cemper's wording and asks about Vicarin's experience. Was fine with mod questions that Sabrar didn't like. Prodded flicky and Whale. Mostly responds to things.

cemper93 - Tries to find out meta of "newer players". Asks about whether we find out sanity of dead players, says it makes it harder that we don't. Doesn't want PRs to claim yet, but would consider one of LaserGuy's plans D2 if no PRs claim anything useful - later changed their mind after calculation. Disliked BoomFrog's woofing. Sees flicky/Whale/Sabrar as scum and suspicion on BF/moody, as far as I can tell.


Townie: Vicarin, Sabrar, bessie, cemper93
Uncertain: Jimbobmacdoodle, BoomFrog, somitomi, Hari Seldon, moody727/madge
Scummy: Peaceful Whale, LaserGuy

I can't offer much distinction between the "Townie" and "Uncertain" groups beyond general feeling. Whale has not offered much of use - I was initially seeing this as standard PW but I'm not reading too many people that low down. LaserGuy's bad plans and "serious" vote on Sabrar before Sabrar even had any content are the reasons I dislike him.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:48 am UTC

Vote: LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:08 am UTC

Really think that anyone who hasn't already started properly voting yet should be putting them on their top scum picks by now, or else our discussions are just going to go in circles.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Hari Seldon » Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:33 am UTC

Notes this post:

P4

Jim's Readings
This question is bizarre to me:
@bessie/BoomFrog - did scum!cemper ever show indication of gambits involving asking mods fake questions in order to look better with a future plan?


This does not seem like this is something someone would remember, which leads me to view it as an empty question. I also get a partner vibe from this (Cemper, [-0.2]). I agree much with each point Jim made about LaserGuy other than the No Lynch, which I'll address below [1]. His analysis of Sabrar is strange. I believe it appears to me as if here trying to justify a town read. I am having difficulty thinking of the phrase to describe my feeling, but essentially it is when someone wants to go the middle ground to feel things out:

His response to LaserGuy's suggested plan is reasonable, not overreacting to it as a clearly scummy plan or anything, whilst also not blindly following it, but rather studying it out, as I've seen he is wont to do.

There's actually not all that much content so far from Sabrar (lots of brief posts, but that's about it). I've seen him do this before in newbie games though, so as not to do all the work, but Crossover also springs to mind where he was scum. I'll have to take a look at some point to see what his alignment was in the other newbie games.

[-0.5]


Peaceful Whale wrote:@Vicarin, do you have any previous mafia experience?
This question by Peaceful Whale is rather spontaneous. I also get a partner vibe from this (Bessie made the same observation). Mafia are highly inclined to ask their partner's questions like these early on. Example. (Vicarin, [-0.2])


LaserGuy wrote:Why is BoomFrog in your Townie group rather than null? There's nothing in your reasoning here to suggest that you're townreading him.
This indicates that LaserGuy is reading closely. [0.5]


Cemper's Reading's
His Somitomi read seems rather strong. Somitomi has been under the radar up to this point. I do not believe this read is justifiable [-1]. His read on Moody, however, gives me a strong town impression:
However, he attacked BoomFrog twice in two posts, which IMO is uncharacteristic for him. Filed under "keep an eye on him".

This indicates to me that Cemper is being objective. If he was pushing BoomFrog with an agenda, I do not believe he would be inclined to call someone else out for pushing BoomFrog [1.5].

I have an impression of genuineness from Vicarin's reaction and vote to BoomFrog. I believe this feeling stems from the authoritative tone [0.5]. Vicarin, also made the same observation about Cemper's Somitomi read [0.5].

Viciran's Reading's

as the scum team would probably debate for ages before trying to put forward such a proposal.
This is a strange justification. @Viciran What gives you this idea?

Viciran's JimBob read gives me a Townie impression. The flow of it appears like it is coming from a stream of conscious.
Jimbobmacdoodle - Agrees with not claiming in first post, does a really chunky reads list in 2nd post, hell yeah. Disagree with some of the reads, but hey, that's why everyone posts them. Like this a fair bit if it continues.

[0.5]

Somitomi's questions feel empty. I do not have the impression that he is really digging into anything. In particular, his reaction to BoomFrog here seems over the top and leaves me with the impression that he is simply attempting to add his voice into the mix:
What are you saying? Do you really quote posts you dislike (that would be slightly paradoxical) or is jimbob completely wrong here? While we're on the subject: could you use words please?
[-1]

BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:
BoomFrog, any reasons for your vote?
Woof woof.

Unvote
Hmm, interesting.
@Bessie, what is interesting here?

I believe I have a secret and reliable tell for Bessie from Santa. I do not wish to reveal it, at least at this time, but she has already shown no indication of it here. [2]

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:LaserGuy, your No Lynch then random lynch probability comments are misleading at best. Firstly, since when do town ever random lynch? Secondly, it omits the D1 probability of lynching scum. I don't have time or inclination, but if lynching randomly across two days, as opposed to 1, the chance of hitting at least one scum is greater (not to mention the fact that we could hit two). Add to this the potential for a doctor save, which grants us an extra mislynch, instead of a no lynch, and I'm beginning to lean more towards your motives as being suspicious.

I feel like there was other stuff I wanted to respond to, but it'll have to wait until later.

This is not correct. The reasoning Laser presented is sound. I'm beginning to think that you are responding to these points based off of how you think you should respond, rather than to the actual reasoning. While No Lynching is not an intuitive thing to do, it is the logical thing to do. [-0.5]

Cemper wrote:This was just bad analysis all around, which is completely out of character for her.

How up to date are you on her character? @Cemper


Notes History:
Spoiler:
P1

Sabrar's opening is more similar to Santa (Town) than Crossover (Mafia). In Crossover, he made an introduction post welcoming the players from the other site, which I presume was due to an inclination to get words out on the page. Since this is a Newbie game, I suspect that a Mafia Sabrar would show a similar pattern. I also had the impression of tension while reading his first few posts in Crossover. This is in contrast to his jocular posts here and in Santa. [0.5]

I have a town instinct from flicky. His RVS vote comes off to me as easy-going, similar to the impression I had of JimBob in Halloween. [0.5]

It is peculiar to me that Vicarin correctly deduced that Mafia do not have PRs, or rather that the question had even occurred to him. There was nothing to indicate this. [-1]

P2

LaserGuy's vote on Sabrar was serious. LaserGuy did not initially divulge this. [-0.5] Furthermore, LaserGuy's posts are continuing to focus on Night actions. This is in contrast to Halloween where LaserGuy immediately began scum hunting and pressuring players. His vote on Sabrar had no content behind it. [-1]


P3

LaserGuy began scum hunting after my last post, but I do not get a sense of genuineness from it. In particular, his questioning of Cemper felt forced. As JimBob said, he misrepresented Cemper's posts. [-1] I have a suspicion that Laser's change in content is a reaction to my note. I do not think a town lean on BoomFrog is justifiable. His subsequent reaction to the BoomFrog pressure gives me buddy vibes. [-0.2].

Sabrar is not at all as involved as I would expect. He has less than half the content he had by page 3 of Santa. [-0.5]

flicky1991: 0.5
Peaceful Whale -0.2
Somitomi -1
LaserGuy: -2.2
Vicarin: 0.8
Sabrar: 0
Jimbobmacdoodle -0.8
BoomFrog -0.2
Madge
Bessie 2
Cemper93 0.3

Current Lynch Order:

LaserGuy > somitomi > Jimbobmacdoodle > BoomFrog = Peaceful Whale > Madge = Sabrar > cemper93 > flicky1991 > Vicarin > bessie

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Vicarin
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:04 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:
as the scum team would probably debate for ages before trying to put forward such a proposal.
This is a strange justification. @Viciran What gives you this idea?


Well, you may have noticed that LaserGuy has been drawing a fair bit of flak and attention for putting forward the idea and defending it, which has him ending up high on people's scum lists, including yours.

In addition, I find it mildly interesting that I've gone straight from 2nd scummiest to 2nd towniest read on your list.

Hari Seldon wrote: While No Lynching is not an intuitive thing to do, it is the logical thing to do. [-0.5]


Not here it isn't. As I've said before, get information from the D1 Lynch, let the Doctor try to do their thing, and if it comes down to it, we can NL later. NLing here means we just mess around with an extra long D1 and put all our hope in the PRs.

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Hari Seldon
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Hari Seldon » Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:27 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:and @LG: What makes you suspect Hari is scum?

Just as an example, I find it interesting that HS has not commented at all on Peaceful Whale, when PW has a fair amount of content in pages 1-3 and HS spent a considerable amount of time analyzing PW in Hallowe'en mafia. HS was also asking more questions in his reads, providing more analysis, and generally engaging in the thread more.
This is a very good observation and further leads me to think you are reading deeply. I am intentionally being more reserved in my reactions toward Peaceful Whale. I believe it was a mistake to press so hard on him early on in Halloween. I want to give him room to play. He was also targeted early on in Crossover, and became much easier to read later on when people had let up on him.

On specifics, I find it interesting that he compared my play in this game to Hallowe'en' at all, since in that game I wasn't Town, but an indie and was deliberately trying to draw the night kill.

You are misrepresenting your role. While indy in name, your objective aligned with Town. You are a player whose mental wheels I follow well. Your posting pattern here has given me the impression of being incongruous thus far.

Vicarin wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:
as the scum team would probably debate for ages before trying to put forward such a proposal.
This is a strange justification. @Viciran What gives you this idea?


Well, you may have noticed that LaserGuy has been drawing a fair bit of flak and attention for putting forward the idea and defending it, which has him ending up high on people's scum lists, including yours.

I do not think this answers my question. Why could LaserGuy not have put forward the idea without discussing it with his team? And why would they have to discuss it for a long time?

Hari Seldon wrote: While No Lynching is not an intuitive thing to do, it is the logical thing to do. [-0.5]


Not here it isn't. As I've said before, get information from the D1 Lynch, let the Doctor try to do their thing, and if it comes down to it, we can NL later. NLing here means we just mess around with an extra long D1 and put all our hope in the PRs.
4 Nights and 3 Days is greater than 3 Nights and 3 Days.

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Vicarin
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:40 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote: While No Lynching is not an intuitive thing to do, it is the logical thing to do. [-0.5]


Not here it isn't. As I've said before, get information from the D1 Lynch, let the Doctor try to do their thing, and if it comes down to it, we can NL later. NLing here means we just mess around with an extra long D1 and put all our hope in the PRs.
4 Nights and 3 Days is greater than 3 Nights and 3 Days.


You know we can NL later on, right? Assuming that the Doctor doesn't manage to save anyone? If they do, then we'd have to NL again to get the parity of players correct again.

Hari Seldon wrote:I do not think this answers my question. Why could LaserGuy not have put forward the idea without discussing it with his team? And why would they have to discuss it for a long time?


Well, he could have, but I'm kind of assuming that he's not a terrible player who puts forward a divisive idea without running it past their scum buddies in that day chat they have? I'm pretty sure I haven't seen him do anything that silly in any of the games I've read.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:57 am UTC

@Vicarin: I think you have a slightly overrated view of scum-chat. Scum won't discuss every single detail of their future content as that would rob it from its individuality/spontaneity and might be picked upon by town.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:01 am UTC

@Madge: hypothetically speaking in this particular setup PR!me wouldn't go along with any plan I think is wrong. As BoomFrog pointed out PR's can easily prove themselves so there would be no fear of backlash.

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Vicarin
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:04 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Vicarin: I think you have a slightly overrated view of scum-chat. Scum won't discuss every single detail of their future content as that would rob it from its individuality/spontaneity and might be picked upon by town.


Not even a heads up "Hey, I'm going to put forward something that could make people angry, Y/N?" Day chat seems pretty handy for that.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:07 am UTC

@jimbob: bessie defended BoomFrog way too hard. Scum!bessie would welcome the confusion about BF's actions and would a bit before taking sides to see what becomes of the situation. Imo.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:08 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Not even a heads up "Hey, I'm going to put forward something that could make people angry, Y/N?" Day chat seems pretty handy for that.
Depending on the player not necessarily.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:11 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:GRAAAH I hate doing reads lists.

Townie: Vicarin, Sabrar, bessie, cemper93
Uncertain: Jimbobmacdoodle, BoomFrog, somitomi, Hari Seldon, moody727/madge
Scummy: Peaceful Whale, LaserGuy


Why do you townread cemper and Sabrar?

I can't offer much distinction between the "Townie" and "Uncertain" groups beyond general feeling. Whale has not offered much of use - I was initially seeing this as standard PW but I'm not reading too many people that low down. LaserGuy's bad plans and "serious" vote on Sabrar before Sabrar even had any content are the reasons I dislike him.


Why didn't you comment on this when we were discussing these things earlier in the game? I don't recall you actually interacting with me basically at all.

Honestly, I kind of read this as "I don't really have a read on anybody, but I really need an excuse to vote for LaserGuy". You have nine players in the Town/Uncertain group that you admittedly can't really distinguish between, and don't really offer any particular reason for your scumread of PW.

FoS flicky

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:28 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@jimbob: bessie defended BoomFrog way too hard. Scum!bessie would welcome the confusion about BF's actions and would a bit before taking sides to see what becomes of the situation. Imo.

Then again, bessie had a similar reaction to my play in Secret Santa. Not so sure about this particular read anymore but so far she hasn't pinged me.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:53 am UTC

FWIW I don't think flicky's town-slip is indicative here. Scum has 2 instances of the role-pm available so is more likely to notice the discrepancy. Plus the question was asked kind of late.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:02 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@somitomi - have you been scum yet? I'm asking because of the "slip" you supposedly made. I doubt newbie scum would attempt to fake a slip (well, PW might, but I think that might not be so much faked as accidental...).
Why do you ignore the possibility of somitomi's more experienced scum-buddy advising him to fake one?

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flicky1991
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:05 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:the question was asked kind of late.
I asked it because I suddenly realised while thinking about the game that I didn't remember whether scum had day chat. (I don't think anyone had mentioned it yet in the game.) So I checked the opening post and found two contradictory statements.
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flicky1991
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:15 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Why do you townread cemper and Sabrar?
I assigned everyone scores based on how I was feeling about them and categorised them based on that. Sabrar and cemper both seemed like they were playing in a townie way to me. I've already said that the only distinction between my townie and uncertain categories was gut feeling. You and PW were tied for lowest in the scores I assigned.

LaserGuy wrote:and don't really offer any particular reason for your scumread of PW.
I know it's PW's meta for his posts to be quite unhelpful, but I'm getting it particularly strongly this time, and I seem to remember his posts were worse in the one game where he was scum, so I feel it's a pretty accurate judge.

I put the vote on you rather than him though because my read on you was less "his posts are not very useful" and more "his posts are working against town".
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Vicarin
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:24 am UTC

@flicky1991: Seeing as you only had 2 scum reads listed, who are your 3rd and 4th scummiest reads?

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:31 am UTC

cemper93 wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:But, although it feels like a worthwhile goal to solve the puzzle of the sanities, knowing the sanities will only be useful in the case that they actually get a result, so it's a non-issue.

Regardless of the fact that I do not want to run the gambits, this is still plain and simple an untrue statement. Knowing their sanities is important for cop and tracker because it allows them to clear people. I think it's interesting you don't understand that, given that I already FoS'd bessie for not getting this.
You're misrepresenting BoomFrog here. The plan we were talking about would have confirmed only the sanity of the Watcher/Tracker, it had nothing to do with Cop. And as mentioned before Tracker cannot confirm anyone until only 1 scum remains.

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Vicarin
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:43 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:And as mentioned before Tracker cannot confirm anyone until only 1 scum remains.


Huh? Tracker can't confirm vanilla town until 1 scum remains, but they're perfectly good at figuring out PRs without the PR needing to claim.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:45 am UTC

But in this particular setup figuring out who the PR is has only marginal benefits and should not be the focus.

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flicky1991
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:45 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:@flicky1991: Seeing as you only had 2 scum reads listed, who are your 3rd and 4th scummiest reads?
At a push, moody/Madge and somitomi.
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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:52 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Why do you townread cemper and Sabrar?
I assigned everyone scores based on how I was feeling about them and categorised them based on that. Sabrar and cemper both seemed like they were playing in a townie way to me. I've already said that the only distinction between my townie and uncertain categories was gut feeling. You and PW were tied for lowest in the scores I assigned.


Why wouldn't you include this information in your reads of them? What you actually think about people's posting is way more important information than a summary of their content. What parts of Sabrar's content felt townie to you? What parts of cemper's?

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:09 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Why is BoomFrog in your Townie group rather than null? There's nothing in your reasoning here to suggest that you're townreading him.
This indicates that LaserGuy is reading closely. [0.5]
I question this point. Not because it pertains to LaserGuy but the general idea behind it. Scum needs to read closely to find any possible mistakes or perceived mistakes they can use against Town.


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