Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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bessie
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:37 am UTC

Picking up from my last post (P4, things are moving fast!).

Reference this post by cemper.
bessie wrote: cemper, I’m not seeing your town read on somitomi, can you please elaborate?
cemper93 wrote:I liked the initial analysis post, it had reasonable talk about the setup and good questions. It was, at most, slightly lacking in commitment.
You are referring to this post, correct? I see an excuse for not posting earlier, some strategy discussion, a warning not to trust me, and a single question to jimbob regarding his vote on Vicarin.
cemper93 wrote:Somitomi also commented reasonably on PeacefulWhale's evaluation of Sabrar and on LaserGuy's behavior.
Can you post I link? I can’t seem to locate the posts to which you are referring.
cemper93 wrote:By the way, regarding the Laser Guy Gambit, everyone seems to have agreed by now that power roles shouldn't claim. I also originally thought so, but I believe that with sanity not being revealed upon death (which very much surprised me also -- Sabrar, what do you know about the mod's intention?), this is less cut-and-dry. If cop only gets town results or watcher / tracker only get "no movement", these don't help confirm townies. IMO that's a large problem, and bessie pings me slightly for not seeing that. (Everyone else who doesn't see that is not bessie, so they're OK.)

Unvote BoomFrog
Vote bessie


This was just bad analysis all around, which is completely out of character for her.
I’m not quite following the reason for your vote, is this entirely based on me not going full throttle in support of town PRs claiming and working out a night action strategy (which seems to be the stated reason), or is there something else in my content you find suspicious (implied by “all around”)?

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:I don't ask questions where I'm reasonably certain of what the answer would be.
Noted, in case I think of an example later.
Why do you only note this now as this has been clear since X-Men?
I noted it because at the time I couldn’t think of a specific example, but was fairly certain that there was one out there.

Sabrar wrote:Setup is described as "newbie friendly and reasonably straight forward" in the sign-up thread. It is evident from the Gojoe post you linked earlier that balancing town!PR-s is done by varying sanity levels only. There is no hint at scum!PR-s or hidden mechanics. The question was unnecessary.
It was also unclear, from the Gojoe post I linked, as to whether or not a miller would be part of the 12 player setup.

flicky1991 wrote:I don't understand why you're defending BoomFrog so much.
I find this interesting that some of you view me as defending BoomFrog, when I see myself as attacking those who are quick to slap a scum label on him without any indication they have actually tried to analyze (or even carefully read) his content.

Reference Peaceful Whale’s post here.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Players who “joke” confirmed.
Cemper
Boomfrog (woof)
Moody
Somi
Why did you post this?

Re PW's Boomfrog post-by-post analysis.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Well, it’s a better reads list than I gave. I believe too is town. Middle is unconfirmed, and bottom is scum. I am currently surprised to see Sabrar there, but maybe that will change as I read him.
Hmm, this is the second time you’ve said you might lean scum on Sabrar after a reread.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Bessie came to his aid, *possible* (small) correlation
I didn’t come to BoomFrog’s aid, and he didn’t need me to, BoomFrog doesn’t have a posting restriction and can end this any time he wants. I came to your aid, Peaceful Whale. Not because I want you to blindly follow me (and note that I have not yet committed to a read on Boomfrog), but because I wanted you to actually read and think about his (and everyone else’s) content. This game isn’t just one long RVS, if you call someone scum you are expected to do some analysis and give reasons based on their content. I've discussed this with you a little before, here's one example. And it's ok if your read doesn't lead you to the same place as me.

Sabrar wrote:My issue is with your quick judgment call on not voting him today based on his 'other' content.
I agree with your suspicions, I am not yet sure if we are going to come to the same conclusions.

BoomFrog wrote: Also, the number of people I'm annoying appears to outweigh the number of people I'm entertaining, even if I am entertaining myself and bessie immensely.
Woof! :lol: You… have no idea…. :lol: no, I think you do… :lol: I could barely read the thread… :lol: :lol: :lol:

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Assuming at the time that I was just woofing a little at the intro as an homage to CrossOver, why does that indicate scumminess?
I assume you used 'woof' in crossover to subtly influence Zen. You could have done the same here with bessie.
Woof? :shock: Do I look like someone that can be easily influenced? Err, um, you don’t have a cookie and a squeaky toy, do you? :D

Hari Seldon wrote:By the way, I must say I am disappointed you broke character. Later today, I was going to post a Doggy Dictionary consisting of generic responses for you to use as quotes.
I just had to take a short break to recover from this. :lol: My husband just yelled what the hell’s so funny from the other room… :lol:

BoomFrog wrote:(the choice of a cute Pomiranian-chihuahua mix as my avatar was to manipulate Bessie though... :P )
Ruff, grrr…

flicky1991 wrote:Grr I'm running out of time before I'm doing other things for another hour, and I'm only halfway down page 4 of the reread. I have no idea how the regulars manage to get all this analysis done - do you have, like, two hours a day to spare or something?
The games have been getting a lot longer (as cemper noticed), especially in the last year. Shakespeare really raised the bar, and then well Crossover :shock:. My goal used to be minimum one good solid post every 24-36 hours, but I feel that’s not enough anymore. Now it’s a couple hours a night, and only posting at night means I’m always catching up. But I’m not good at organizing my thoughts, so I take a long time to make a post. Anyway, flicky, maybe try sorting by author, I find it easier to do reads lists that way.

somitomi wrote:
Sabrar wrote:somitomi knows that role pm-s will be sent out later that day. He confirms as 10th player so game is sure to be underway when he wakes up. Later he claims to have forgotten that fact, knowing that Liri was town-read for a similar claim in Secret Santa.

You're giving me way too much credit. Besides, while this happened after the post in question, Peaceful Whale has been marked "suspicious" for the same thing in this game.
You are misinterpreting my reason for finding Peaceful Whale suspicious. Look at the time stamps in context with his explanation.

somitomi wrote:bessie made a lot of remarks about what people have said. She defended BoomFrog quite strongly which I found odd and it could be experienced mafia trying to look town. I think she's town1
...
1but Secret Santa makes me doubt myself a lot

Hmm, see also this.
somitomi wrote:Based on Secret Santa I'd say keep an eye on bessie. TRUST NOONE.

Well ok, I’m sure many of you don’t know this, but I have a history of having a slightly townie meta. [/sarcasm]

I also have, in the past, gently voiced my suspicions of people that auto-meta read me as townie, and slapped a town label on me, sometimes based on very little content. [/heavy sarcasm]

[deep breath]

I’ve called people scummy for auto slapping a town label on me, and you can expect the same from me if you try to use my townie meta coupled with one successful game as mafia to slap a suspicious label on me. If you’re suspicious of me, fine, vote for me, but you better back it up with some analysis from this game.

Vote: somitomi


Ok, where was I?


Madge wrote:- Bessie is on the war path and I love it. Are you scum again? What if that's your new meta - freezeblade 2.0 :lol:
Hmm, interesting post from Madge. Enthusiasm, analysis, reads, and all on D1 too! Trying out a new meta? Oh, and I’m not going to answer your question, because I suspect you already know my alignment.
Madge wrote:- Should I change my avatar? I've got a greyhound so there'd be no woofing, my content would be *sleep sleep* with a *runs madly down the hallway* sprinkled in every 10 posts
Ok but seriously you really should do this because now I want to see a picture of your dog. :)

Hari Seldon wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:
BoomFrog, any reasons for your vote?
Woof woof.

Unvote
Hmm, interesting.
@Bessie, what is interesting here?
I expected a little more of a reply from BoomFrog, and for him to not remove his vote right away. But this was before I knew he was going to go on so long with the woofs.
Hari Seldon wrote:I believe I have a secret and reliable tell for Bessie from Santa. I do not wish to reveal it, at least at this time, but she has already shown no indication of it here. [2]
Yeah, well, I should warn you super secret meta tells can come back and bite you in the ass. :P

Ok, ninja's by a few, but it's already been way more than two hours, spread out over my night, so I'll reply and post a reads list tomorrow afternoon.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:44 am UTC

bessie wrote:Oh, and I’m not going to answer your question, because I suspect you already know my alignment.
That is such a weird thing to say.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:50 am UTC

Especially if it isn't coupled with a vote on Madge, unless bessie is REALLY sure about somitomi.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:58 am UTC

No, she said she might disagree with me about moody so she can't be that sure about Madge.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:24 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:No, she said she might disagree with me about moody so she can't be that sure about Madge.


Wait, where is this? All I was getting was an implication that Madge is scum so that she would know that bessie is town.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby somitomi » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:39 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
@somitomi - have you been scum yet? I'm asking because of the "slip" you supposedly made. I doubt newbie scum would attempt to fake a slip (well, PW might, but I think that might not be so much faked as accidental...).

Oh my, it appears I have neglected to answer this. No, I've been an independent once (Survivor in X-men and it didn't go well) but I haven't been mafia yet.
bessie wrote:Well ok, I’m sure many of you don’t know this, but I have a history of having a slightly townie meta. [/sarcasm]

I also have, in the past, gently voiced my suspicions of people that auto-meta read me as townie, and slapped a town label on me, sometimes based on very little content. [/heavy sarcasm]

[deep breath]

I’ve called people scummy for auto slapping a town label on me, and you can expect the same from me if you try to use my townie meta coupled with one successful game as mafia to slap a suspicious label on me. If you’re suspicious of me, fine, vote for me, but you better back it up with some analysis from this game.

Clarification one: I intended "trust noone" as a joke. I need to joke less.
Clarification two: I don't find you suspicious any more than other people I classified as town (which think is the "not suspicious" label). The footnote I added to your and Jimbob's town read is the voice of the little niggling doubt in the back of my head. But I put it as a footnote and not into my opinion about you or jimbob specifically because I don't pay much attention to it. While I said your defense of BoomFrog could be a ploy, I think it wasn't, maybe I wasn't clear about that, sorry.
Hari Seldon wrote:4 Nights and 3 Days is greater than 3 Nights and 3 Days.

Yes, but do we really need more time? As things stand there isn't even a deadline on D1 yet and a no lynch would mean the NK is pretty much the only new information we'd have on D2 (the chance one of the PRs gets a definitive result is quite slim I think).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby somitomi » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:56 am UTC

bessie wrote:You are misinterpreting my reason for finding Peaceful Whale suspicious. Look at the time stamps in context with his explanation.

So game started at about 22:13 UTC, Peaceful Whale's first post was at 13:12 UTC the next day and your problem is that he claims to have been sleeping from 21:00 UTC until sometime before his first post? Okay, I see how that's different from Sabrar's case on me, but then I don't quite agree with you on Peaceful Whale. Yes, eleven hours is a lot of sleep, but that's probably net 9-10 hours of sleep plus however long Peaceful Whale's morning routine is, doesn't look all that unreasonable to me.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:54 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:
bessie wrote:You are misinterpreting my reason for finding Peaceful Whale suspicious. Look at the time stamps in context with his explanation.

So game started at about 22:13 UTC, Peaceful Whale's first post was at 13:12 UTC the next day and your problem is that he claims to have been sleeping from 21:00 UTC until sometime before his first post? Okay, I see how that's different from Sabrar's case on me, but then I don't quite agree with you on Peaceful Whale. Yes, eleven hours is a lot of sleep, but that's probably net 9-10 hours of sleep plus however long Peaceful Whale's morning routine is, doesn't look all that unreasonable to me.


Either you're trying to cover for him, or making a silly mistake again. 21:00 until 13:12 the next day is a bit over 16 hours, not 11, so that's why it was kind of unbelievable, even if you leave an hour for a morning routine. Unless PW was reaaaaally tired, it does sound like a weird excuse.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:09 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:
Sabrar wrote:No, she said she might disagree with me about moody so she can't be that sure about Madge.


Wait, where is this? All I was getting was an implication that Madge is scum so that she would know that bessie is town.

See below bessie's reaction to my attack on moody.
bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:My issue is with your quick judgment call on not voting him today based on his 'other' content.
I agree with your suspicions, I am not yet sure if we are going to come to the same conclusions.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:18 pm UTC

Ah, right, had forgotten the context of that other statement. Yeah, that does make the "I think you know what alignment I am" weird.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby somitomi » Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:47 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:21:00 until 13:12 the next day is a bit over 16 hours, not 11

Ugh, you're correct. :oops:
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:43 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:So game started at about 22:13 UTC, Peaceful Whale's first post was at 13:12 UTC the next day and your problem is that he claims to have been sleeping from 21:00 UTC until sometime before his first post? Okay, I see how that's different from Sabrar's case on me, but then I don't quite agree with you on Peaceful Whale. Yes, eleven hours is a lot of sleep, but that's probably net 9-10 hours of sleep plus however long Peaceful Whale's morning routine is, doesn't look all that unreasonable to me.
Covering for Peaceful Whale there? Take another look at my post.
bessie wrote:
Peaceful Whale wrote:Game started about an hour after I was asleep, just woke up. However schools canceled... so I’ll be able to pooost a lot today. Let me read...
I don’t want to come off as judgmental so I apologize in advance if this is out of line, but confirmation phase started at 12:35 pm EST, and the game started at 5:13 pm EST. So this post is somewhat suspicious, like you’re trying to make up an excuse for lurking.
I’ve already corrected for Peaceful Whale’s time zone (EST). He’s in the east coast United States, the same time zone as New York City, Washington DC, and Florida. Confirmation would have started at a little after noon his time, not midnight. And Peaceful Whale is not an adult working graveyard shift, he’s 14 years old (he’s brought this up himself before and used it, along with with his newbieness, in his early games), so this would normally be the time he is in school (which he says was canceled). I think it unusual he claims to be sleeping all day, especially when he would normally have school that day and the next morning (barring cancellation). This is the part where I don’t want to come off as judgmental because it’s none of my business if he wants to sleep all day. But perhaps it wasn’t game start he was waiting for, he could have been waiting for his buddies to post in scum chat.

Vicarin wrote:
Sabrar wrote:No, she said she might disagree with me about moody so she can't be that sure about Madge.

Wait, where is this? All I was getting was an implication that Madge is scum so that she would know that bessie is town.
Yes I'm bessie-passive-aggressively calling Madge scum.

Sabrar, you misunderstand me (common theme :P ), but this is possibly my fault for being bessie-passive-aggressive ambiguous. I agree with the suspicion on moody for his Peaceful Whale post. I’m not sure it’s from a buddy. I think there are other reasons mafia would want to keep town!Peaceful Whale in the game, or even just defend him because so they look good if he flips town on a mislynch. I’m on my way out the door right now can can come back to this in a few hours, or you can read through my Crossover posts, as this is one of the things plytho kept me busy arguing about throughout that game. :)

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:18 pm UTC

@bessie: guess what? You misunderstood my post as well. Understandably though because I didn't spell out all my thoughts.
I completely agree with you about the possibility of scum!moody defending town!PW, that's why I put him lower on my list. I just highlighted the fact that if PW turns up to be scum it would drastically increase the chance of moody being one as well.
Did you get any specific ping from Madge or is your read based only on moody's content?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:20 pm UTC

Also your vote on somitomi is a huge overreaction if you don't have more serious reasons behind it. I would have called you out earlier on this but I guessed you were waiting for his reaction.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:22 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Anyway, flicky, maybe try sorting by author, I find it easier to do reads lists that way.
Where is that option? :oops:
any pronouns
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:30 pm UTC

Bottom of the page, in the middle. Default is 'Sort by Post time', you can switch that to 'Author'.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby somitomi » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:30 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Covering for Peaceful Whale there? Take another look at my post.

No, making a math error. Take a look at the post right above yours:
somitomi wrote:
Vicarin wrote:21:00 until 13:12 the next day is a bit over 16 hours, not 11

Ugh, you're correct. :oops:
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:59 pm UTC

@LaserGuy: please reply to this.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Hari Seldon » Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:02 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:On Hari Seldon's yin/yang point - a known watcher is not really a deterrent to scum any more than a possible watcher is, since scum will be trying to dodge who is going to be targeted anyway, but I don't think this discussion is really all that important, so I'll drop it.
This is not true. If Scum does not have any reason to suspect a Watcher in a closed set up, then the existing Watcher would not have the deterrent function.

Vicarin wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote: While No Lynching is not an intuitive thing to do, it is the logical thing to do. [-0.5]


Not here it isn't. As I've said before, get information from the D1 Lynch, let the Doctor try to do their thing, and if it comes down to it, we can NL later. NLing here means we just mess around with an extra long D1 and put all our hope in the PRs.
4 Nights and 3 Days is greater than 3 Nights and 3 Days.


You know we can NL later on, right? Assuming that the Doctor doesn't manage to save anyone? If they do, then we'd have to NL again to get the parity of players correct again.
As LaserGuy pointed out, Doc saves are not common. Furthermore, as the game proceeds, Scum will have a greater probability of NKing PRs due to a decrease in player size and an increase in information. So I believe it is better to give PRs an extra Night early on.

Vicarin wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@Vicarin: I think you have a slightly overrated view of scum-chat. Scum won't discuss every single detail of their future content as that would rob it from its individuality/spontaneity and might be picked upon by town.


Not even a heads up "Hey, I'm going to put forward something that could make people angry, Y/N?" Day chat seems pretty handy for that.

It seems to me like you are just trying to justify your read.
Sabrar wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Why is BoomFrog in your Townie group rather than null? There's nothing in your reasoning here to suggest that you're townreading him.
This indicates that LaserGuy is reading closely. [0.5]
I question this point. Not because it pertains to LaserGuy but the general idea behind it. Scum needs to read closely to find any possible mistakes or perceived mistakes they can use against Town.
I think it is more difficult for Scum to come up with points unnaturally than it is for a Townie to during the natural process of trying to unearth the unknown. It is not a big point, but I believe it is worth incorporating into the LaserGuy picture.

somitomi wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:4 Nights and 3 Days is greater than 3 Nights and 3 Days.

Yes, but do we really need more time? As things stand there isn't even a deadline on D1 yet and a no lynch would mean the NK is pretty much the only new information we'd have on D2 (the chance one of the PRs gets a definitive result is quite slim I think).


Your reasoning is really scummy to me. Adding an extra Night would not be for the purpose of adding time. The purpose would be to add an extra use of each of the PR's abilities. [-2]

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:09 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@LaserGuy: please reply to this.


It never occurred to me to ask.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:11 pm UTC

somitomi

Post 1
Confirm

Post 2
(16 hours after Post 1) Sorry I forgot the game was starting, strategy discussion, BoomFrog’s not contributing anything other than woof, jimbob is your vote RVS, and this comment about bessie:
somitomi wrote:Based on Secret Santa I'd say keep an eye on bessie. TRUST NOONE.


Post 3
somitomi wrote:How many day vigilantes are in this game?


Post 4
Answers a PW joke post with a joke about bessie, and a remark about BoomFrog’s woofs.
somitomi wrote:I think the less serious note is more appropriate in response to a post intended in jest. And on that note, bessie can't be a day vig. She's been acting townie so far ergo she's obvscum :P


Post 5
Response to PW re Sabrar, reminding us he was townie scum in Bin Chicken.

Post 6
somitomi wrote:Anyone have a plausible explanation to BoomFrog's posts consisting solely of woofs?


Post 7
It’s late, some discussion on LaserGuy’s PR strategy, shows annoyance with BoomFrog-woof, asks LaserGuy’s reasons for Sabrar vote.

Post 8
LaserGuy/NL strategy, reply to bessie re Post #3, reply to bessie re BoomFrog, BF’s posts are puzzling, unhelpful, similar to Sabrar in SS2017. Asks BF to explain one of his woofs. Response to cemper re PR sanity (somitomi makes a sensible observation here).

Post 9
Corrects misquote from previous post.

Post 10
**Note, this is the post where somitomi misinterprets my Peaceful Wale suspicion.
Reads list.
**Note this is where somitomi points out bessie is townie, but could be mafia trying to look town re SS2017.

Post 11
Reply to Sabrar, 5 people as scummy not alignment indicative, even though somitomi pointed this out in his cemper read.

Post 12
Response to earlier misquote, response to cemper re PR claiming.

Post 13
Response to jimbob re mafia experience. Response to bessie re bessie’s vote. Response to Hari (misunderstands 4 night advantage for PRs). I want to focus on this:
somitomi wrote:Clarification one: I intended "trust noone" as a joke. I need to joke less.
Clarification two: I don't find you suspicious any more than other people I classified as town (which think is the "not suspicious" label). The footnote I added to your and Jimbob's town read is the voice of the little niggling doubt in the back of my head. But I put it as a footnote and not into my opinion about you or jimbob specifically because I don't pay much attention to it. While I said your defense of BoomFrog could be a ploy, I think it wasn't, maybe I wasn't clear about that, sorry.

First of all, you don’t need to joke less if you contribute more non-joke content. 5 jokes are fine if it’s 5% of your content, 5 jokes are too much if its 50% of your content.

The same applies to your jokes about my meta/Secret Santa game. This is post #13, so, excluding your confirmation post, Post #9 which was fixing quote tags, and this post, you have “joked” about my meta in 3/10 posts. This is not joking, this is a subtle attempt to keep reminding everyone of the previous game (see also Post #3).

Post 14
Misinterprets my suspicion of Peaceful whale a second time.

Post 15
Corrects math re PW’s posts.

Post 16
Response to my detailed explanation here as to what was suspicious about Peaceful Whale’s claim, and somitomi still gets it wrong. Let me spell it out for you. Peaceful Whale did not confirm. Hmm, interesting, it seems he did manage to make 3 Gojoe posts during the confirmation phase, even though he claimed here he did not check his phone before bed. Anyway, Peaceful Whale claimed he missed the game starting because he went to sleep an hour before D1 start. This would mean he went to sleep at 4:00 pm in the afternoon. I am implying that maybe he went to sleep not waiting for D1 start, but for an event that happened much later at night, like a mafia chat reply. Your failure to understand this makes me feel better about my vote on you.


Ok, Sabrar, I’ll work on moody/Madge next.

Ninja'd by Hari, LaserGuy.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:26 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:It never occurred to me to ask.
Funnily enough I can accept that.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby cemper93 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:12 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
cemper93 wrote:By the way, regarding the Laser Guy Gambit, everyone seems to have agreed by now that power roles shouldn't claim. I also originally thought so, but I believe that with sanity not being revealed upon death (which very much surprised me also -- Sabrar, what do you know about the mod's intention?), this is less cut-and-dry. If cop only gets town results or watcher / tracker only get "no movement", these don't help confirm townies. IMO that's a large problem, and bessie pings me slightly for not seeing that. (Everyone else who doesn't see that is not bessie, so they're OK.)

Unvote BoomFrog
Vote bessie

This was just bad analysis all around, which is completely out of character for her.
I’m not quite following the reason for your vote, is this entirely based on me not going full throttle in support of town PRs claiming and working out a night action strategy (which seems to be the stated reason), or is there something else in my content you find suspicious (implied by “all around”)?

cemper93 wrote:@jimbob I'll post a more detailed reading of bessie later, it's getting late. She's still in my bottom four though, along with BoomFrog, PeacefulWhale and flicky.

I made this promise to jimbob before looking at my own post again. I think I've actually explained the general reasons my vote well enough in the same post that I voted: I didn't like bessie's analysis.

As for what things I didn't like, well, [url="http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124059&sk=a#p4290867"]the post in question[/url] consists of an excuse for not posting, some questions that, on re-reading, seem reasonable, and a FoS on everybody who was brushing off BoomFrog. Overall, this is actually not such a bad post. Since I was voting BoomFrog, I may have been OMGUSing.

You see though, bessie is just a real good mafia player: if she's town, everyone reads her as super town and she posts excellent analysis, and if she's scum, everyone reads her as super town. Therefore, if she doesn't post excellent analysis, she might be scum. She has now started putting in some work, so I'll

Unvote bessie

BoomFrog wrote:
cemper93 wrote:Knowing their sanities is important for cop and tracker because it allows them to clear people. I think it's interesting you don't understand that, given that I already FoS'd bessie for not getting this.
Tracker doesn't clear anyone until we are down to a single mafia. It seems unlikely that tracker and watcher will both not have any results by that point and still have ambiguous sanities. There is no way to force a result for cop or doctor unless you can trick scum into targeting someone specific for the doctor to try and save, which seems hard when we are discussing the plan publicly.

You're right and I was wrong.

Hari Seldon wrote:
jimbob wrote:@bessie/BoomFrog - did scum!cemper ever show indication of gambits involving asking mods fake questions in order to look better with a future plan?
This does not seem like this is something someone would remember, which leads me to view it as an empty question. I also get a partner vibe from this (Cemper, [-0.2]). I agree much with each point Jim made about LaserGuy other than the No Lynch, which I'll address below [1]. His analysis of Sabrar is strange. I believe it appears to me as if here trying to justify a town read.

Maybe I just really don't get your maths stuff, but did you just deduct points from me for being potential partners with MC Doodle, while giving him townie points in the same breath?

bessie wrote:
cemper93 wrote:Somitomi also commented reasonably on PeacefulWhale's evaluation of Sabrar and on LaserGuy's behavior.

Can you post I link? I can’t seem to locate the posts to which you are referring.

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124059&sk=a&start=240#p4290615
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124059&sk=a&start=240#p4290827

flicky wrote:GRAAAH I hate doing reads lists.

So I noticed.

Flicky here posted a read list with almost no opinions on anybody and just some easy content summary. Now, that happens, right? He's a new player and all. There's also a town-to-scum list that flicky says makes no difference between town and "undefined", with only two scum on it, i.e. that is just "I don't like these two players". But the real bad part about this post is this:
flicky, on somitomi, wrote:Now has scum reads for Whale/LG/HS/moody/cemper

flicky, on HariSeldon, wrote:Dislikes Vicarin for PR question and LaserGuy for targeting Sabrar and focusing on plans.

flicky, on Vicarin, wrote:Read post doesn't really point out anyone as scummy, later finds somi scummy for backtracking.

flicky, on Sabrar, wrote:Dislikes somi (fake town slip) and PW (with moody as likely buddy). Argument with LaserGuy.

flicky, on jimbob, wrote:Biiiig reads post - dislikes Hari and LG.

flicky, on BoomFrog, wrote:Woofed in order to gather reactions, thinks Sabrar/cemper/moody/Hari scum.

flicky, on moody, wrote:Thinks BoomFrog lynchable but not PW/LG/Hari.

flicky, on me, wrote:Sees flicky/Whale/Sabrar as scum and suspicion on BF/moody, as far as I can tell.

This is plain and simple not a town reads list. This is a scum who-can-we-safely-lynch list.

Vote flicky

For future reference: flicky did not write down the reads that PeacefulWhale, LaserGuy or bessie made.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:19 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:This is plain and simple not a town reads list.
The parts you're quoting aren't a reads list, they're a content summary. The reads list self-admittedly does not contain much/any reasoning, but the bit in the spoiler was not intended to contain any information about who seemed to be scummy or townie.

The reads list post was made because people were pushing me for content. In retrospect I probably should have just kept posting what I was thinking.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:55 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:
Vicarin wrote:You know we can NL later on, right? Assuming that the Doctor doesn't manage to save anyone? If they do, then we'd have to NL again to get the parity of players correct again.
As LaserGuy pointed out, Doc saves are not common. Furthermore, as the game proceeds, Scum will have a greater probability of NKing PRs due to a decrease in player size and an increase in information. So I believe it is better to give PRs an extra Night early on.


I'm pretty sure that Doctor saves are significantly more likely in this game than the very small increase in the likelihood of a scum lynch. While Scum have a greater chance of NKing PRs, PRs also become more useful as they get more info to base their targeting on.

Let me put it this way: if the Cop is sane, then NLing first day is ok. But if the Doctor is effective, then a NL gives very little info from the power roles (tracker or watcher might find another PR, but very unlikely to find scum), and screws over the Doctor if they do manage to protect someone. As we don't have any idea which of these is the case at the moment, I'm not sure if you're taking into account the second situation enough.



On a different note, Peaceful Whale, somitomi, Hari Seldon, Madge and jimbobmacdoodle don't have any votes down right now I think? Vote! We're nowhere near lynching anyone (I think Laserguy has 2 votes on him?), and it gives good info and makes sure you're trying to do proper reads. Failing to do this soon makes you look really bad (Madge gets a bit more leeway for replacing).

This especially applies to Peaceful Whale, who did say that they had stuff on for half the day, but has been AWOL for almost 36 hours now. You had better put out that promised reads list and it needs a vote for someone on it.

jimbobmacdoodle has done a grand total of 2 posts with content, and the 2nd one was 4 pages and 2 days ago. Hence:

@mods: Can we get a modprod for jimbobmacdoodle?

I think the only other people who haven't posted in a while are Madge and BoomFrog, but Madge has the replacing (still need more content soonish), and BoomFrog has had enough other posts that I'm assuming that they're just having a bit of a break.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:19 am UTC

moody7277

Post 1
Confirm

Post 2
Votes LaserGuy for NL (as Sabrar suspected he would :) ).

Post 3
Concerns with LaserGuy’s PR strategy, reply to cemper re Crossover post count, setup spec, +2 Vicarin vibe [unexplained, so suspicious], BoomFrog’s confusing content can have no game mechanic basis.

Post 4
**I never did understand this post. I should have asked him about it earlier, but I didn’t because of Peaceful Whale’s and somitomi’s responses immediately following, and referencing it, so when I initially read through I put it off as me making a connection that wasn’t supposed to be there (vigilantes and cryptology, what?). It stands out to me again now that I am reading moody in isolation.

Post 5
Partial reads: Won’t be voting for Peaceful Whale, BoomFrog lynchable for active barking [don't agree with his justification for this], LaserGuy non-votable, Hari slight town.

Post 6
Peaceful Whale post analysis, stands by his read of PW non-votable based on content. Note that moody himself labels 9/21 of these posts meow/woof/fluff/RL, and 1/21 posts serious analysis.

Madge

Post 1
Madge wrote:I hope you all enjoy some rare D1 content from me because I have a lot to say after being dropped in so late:
If I was the meta reading type, I would say the above is quite out of town-meta character for Madge. :P

Ok, when I first read this post last night, I thought there was more player analysis, but I was wrong, there isn’t any, just some comments on BoomFrog and a dig at me. Most of this post is discussing PR strategy, which Madge loves doing. The strategy discussion is active lurky but within Madge’s meta. The dig at me is ok, but there better be some more content coming because that’s the closest thing Madge has contributed that resembles a read. So currently 100% of her reads are based on my meta :P (see my somitomi read above).

Leaning scum on Madge, mostly based on moody’s questionable Peaceful Whale read (and to a lesser extent, BoomFrog and Vicarin), and lurking (hopefully there’s not a RL issue with moody), and whatever is going on with Post #4 (I think I need to ponder whether or not Peaceful Whale's and somitomi's responses are important).

Madge wrote:Actually scratch that I just got to the "woof woof grrr" and if anyone wants to make a novelty mafia account and play this way I would lov eit (SDK, are you reading right now? Please do it!)
If someone does this and I find out who you are I will sign up for every game real-account-you are involved with and vote for you until you are dead, even if you are the mod. :P Wait, better idea, if someone does this I will vote for Madge in every game for suggesting it. :lol:

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:26 am UTC

bessie wrote:
Madge wrote:Actually scratch that I just got to the "woof woof grrr" and if anyone wants to make a novelty mafia account and play this way I would lov eit (SDK, are you reading right now? Please do it!)
If someone does this and I find out who you are I will sign up for every game real-account-you are involved with and vote for you until you are dead, even if you are the mod. :P Wait, better idea, if someone does this I will vote for Madge in every game for suggesting it. :lol:


I was thinking of saying something along these lines, but sadly I'm pretty sure it goes against the you-must-play-for-your-win-condition rule. Unless the mod keeps making you a lyncher for Madge, which would be hilarious.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:34 am UTC

Attacking Madge in every game is entirely within my meta. :P

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Suzaku » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:39 am UTC

Current Votals

Sabrar - 1 (LaserGuy)
LaserGuy - 2 (Sabrar, flicky1991)
cemper93 - 1 (BoomFrog)
somitomi - 2 (Vicarin, bessie)
flicky1991 - 1 (cemper93)

Not voting: Peaceful Whale, somitomi, Hari Seldon, Madge, jimbobmacdoodle

With 12 alive hammer requires 7 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
No deadline has yet been set.

@mods: Can we get a modprod for jimbobmacdoodle?
jimbob's last post was a little over 24 hours ago, so no prod will be issued at this time.
The Rules wrote:3. Do not lurk! One post per real-life day is the recommended minimum. Consideration will be given for weekends and holidays. If you are going to be away for an extended period, please let us know. Otherwise, you will be prodded after 48 hours of inactivity. Failure to respond to a prod within 48 hours will result in a replacement or modkill.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:54 am UTC

Suzaku wrote:jimbob's last post was a little over 24 hours ago, so no prod will be issued at this time.
[/b]


Wasn't it over 48 hours? It was at 10pm Jan 4th UTC, right?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Suzaku » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:59 am UTC

viewtopic.php?p=4291394#p4291394

by jimbobmacdoodle » 2018/01/06 08:17:16 JST (== 2018/1/5 23:17:16 UTC)
Pronouns: he/him/his > they/them/their >> it/it/its
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:02 am UTC

Suzaku wrote:http://fora.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4291394#p4291394

by jimbobmacdoodle » 2018/01/06 08:17:16 JST (== 2018/1/5 23:17:16 UTC)


Ah, sorry about that. For some reason, that post is not showing up when I try to search for jimbob as author. How weird.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Madge » Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:41 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Madge: hypothetically speaking in this particular setup PR!me wouldn't go along with any plan I think is wrong. As BoomFrog pointed out PR's can easily prove themselves so there would be no fear of backlash.


I think in that case the "verify roles by having them all target one person" gambit isn't going to pay off, because if Sabrar is a PR, we're definitely not going to get full cooperation - and I'm sure Sabrar isn't the only person who would protest (hell, if I was a PR and didn't like the idea, I know I wouldn't do it!). So I'm putting this idea officially to bed.

Thinking about D2 claims and how to get info that will help people determine sanities if you die prematurely...

I'd ask VTs to flip a coin* at the beginning of D2 and either say "no useful info from the night" or leave no reference. PRs, if you got a naive result, say "no useful info from the night", and if you got a non-naive result, leave no reference**. I don't think this will let scum narrow people down at all, because they don't know who visited whom. I think repeating this on D3 will narrow PRs down too much for scum.

*coin flip may be the wrong way to do it; might want to have 75% chance of claiming naive and 25% chance of claiming non-naive to take into account that a "good" PR is more likely to get naive results than non-naive ones

**obviously cop with guilty should claim right away; this is more for trackers/watchers if they saw someone move in a way that was not incriminating. Also, now I think about it, it may be better to claim a non-naive result outright - but I think people will forget to claim / refuse to claim in this system and we can assume a PR will go along with it (... or can we? Sabrar? :lol: )


Enthusiasm, analysis, reads, and all on D1 too! Trying out a new meta?


Nah, the setup just lends itself to analysis, people are doing things, it's been long enough on D1 that I have opinions, and I've been following the game thread. I agree with you that it's moving too fast for comfort htough :shock: but we do our best eh

I'm not sure why bessie says she thinks I know her alignment. I don't. I mean, I suspect town, but I suspect everyone of being town right now!

@somitomi don't joke less i love jokes

why do we care how much peaceful whale sleeps? i mean seriously. i say shit like that all the time, "sorry i didn't post i was sleeping" but really 11 hours passed and 7 were sleeping and the other 4 were eating dinner and watching netflix. unless we want people to fill out time sheets i really don't care whether he was sleeping for 16 hours or doing a Glee marathon, he didn't post and it's no big deal it's the first 24 hours of D1 does anything reaslly happen except for BF speaking in woofs??? Do we really think PW is scum and his Big Plan is telling people he didn't confirm earlier because he was asleep?? Why? I mean seriously! I don't think the "he's scum waiting for his scumbuddies to come online" thing holds water. I am not sure if this is kosher to bring up but when SDK was mentoring him he posted a lot and talked to SDK very little, so I can't imagine it would be any different with his scumbuddies: I think PW is enthusiastic and loves playing and would be super eager to post, I don't think he'd be able to hold himself back to have a convo with his buddies.

@Vicarin: just so you know this is like, epic levels of content from me D1, and I don't generally vote as I don't have the confidence to do so. Laserguy's stat about D1 voteoffs being at about chance levels does nothing to improve my feeling in this regard. That said I notice you're a Sydneysider! Glad to have another aussie around the place!


Dog pictures: https://imgur.com/a/VIl1o - maybe now Bessie will townread me :lol:
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:01 am UTC

Sabrar...
Spoiler:
1st post: confirm.
2nd: joke vote
3rd: I’m kinda confused about this one, I believe he’s talking about LaserGuy’s no-lynch Vote...
(Gets voted by boomfrog)
4th: Answer questions from Cemper... (possible bussing? IDK how to tell, I don’t think so)
5th
Sabrar wrote:The thing about the proposed PR-claiming schemes is that they offer little reward. I also investigated several options, starting from 3 PR-s claiming, down to 2, down to 1, up to all 4, down to 2 again. My conclusion in short is that the benefit of finding out sanity is not worth outing the PR-s and wasting their N1 checks. Evidently we should come back to this discussion when we have more info on the effectiveness of some of these roles but for now I'm against it.

I like this post. I feel like scum Sabrar would agree with the anti-town plan. Unless he’s planning a different anti-town plan.
6th Notes boomfrog used “woof” a lot in crossover when he was scum.

I’m stopping reading through one by one posts, I don’t have enough time... I’ll still read through, but not make notes on each one.

Sabrar asked no questions about rules and stuff this game. However I feel like anyone pouncing on this is pouncing just because they can distract people... (LaserGuy)
I’d be inclined to agree with LaserGuy, but this game is pretty simple, and I didn’t have any questions about setup, (besides who: the scum, the cop, the doctor, the watcher, and the tracker are :P )
The way he’s reacting to LaserGuy to me seems like a really Sabrar way. I think scum Sabrar would try harder and not defend himself, as to me rushing to defend yourself is something scum do more of. I wouldn’t be surprised if LaserGuy and Sabrar is town va town. That’s what it seems like to me. The way he’s not jumping on boomfrog is to me towny, I’d think scum would have tried pushing for a boomfrog because it’s policy to lynch active lurkers.
Sabrar’s been butting heads, and I just thought of a LaserGuy+boomfrog+Cemper scum team. As they’re the people Sabrar has been butting heads with the most. I can imagine them trying to get him lynched. If they are, but as of now, it’s flicky and LaserGuy voting him...

Honestly I really want to place him in town, but as others have pointed out, he’s not our normal Sabrar, at least I feel like that. He’s defiantly town leaning, maybe that will change. He’s definitely on my “do not lynch right now” list, which also includes Wam...
@Mods: can we lynch you... would it be like killing god?

Other thoughts: band wagons is going to be fun to analyze, as everybody is voting everywhere, I think this is where we can catch scum.

I feel bad for not doing a post by post analysis, given as everyone else is. I just don’t have as much dedication/time to keep up if I do that, I’m slowly working through what is supposed to be a good reads list... I’ll keep going I guess. Ill also try and respond to people who’ve @ed me. More thoughts to come!
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:31 am UTC

Well, after browsing through this thread, I’m surprised Bessie hasn’t voted for me. Sorry that I’m being dismaying...
Is that an actual quote form me Somitori?

About the whole “game started and I went to bed thing”

12:00 I’m in school, 3:30 I get home. And for pretty much until 6:00 I had homework. Then dinner, and then I got portal 2 for $2 from a steam sale... can you guess what’s been taking up all my time?
Portal 2 spoiler:
Spoiler:
Why Wheatley?! Why did you try and kill me? All I want to do is go home!
I also killed that weird different turret once. I reset the level just so I didn’t, I like t believe it’s sitting there all happy. Talking to the other weird messed up turret I put across from it...

Bessie: you did play very well in Secret Santa, jimbobmacdoodle’s was pretty much a joke, yours was more serious about your tunneling (which I think I may be a potential target of)
I’ll try better.
Cemper: ditto, I’m sorry I suck... however I already coasted through one game of mafia by being a noob. (I was scum that time) I’m actually trying now, so I’d say that should be a plus.
Vicarin: I won’t forget you! I don’t know why I blooped over you earlier...

Other stuff:
Idk who I’ll read next, I’ll see what new posts there are for me tomorrow!

Hi Madge! Your moody’s Sub right? What happened to moody, I don’t think the mods said...

@moody are you okay? (Post in gojoe, don’t spoil it!)
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:42 am UTC

Madge wrote:@Vicarin: just so you know this is like, epic levels of content from me D1, and I don't generally vote as I don't have the confidence to do so. Laserguy's stat about D1 voteoffs being at about chance levels does nothing to improve my feeling in this regard. That said I notice you're a Sydneysider! Glad to have another aussie around the place!


Yeah, having someone else in a similar timezone is great. Wooooo Australia!

Still need that D1 lynch info as unless we're really lucky, PRs aren't going to have anything to report tomorrow. Put your vote on whoever gives you the worst vibe, as even if it's effectively random, the more non-scum votes that are out there, the harder it is for them to manipulate the vote totals.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:41 am UTC

moody7277 wrote:
somitomi wrote:How many day vigilantes are in this game?


Sadly, none. One does wonder if this might slide into the "no cryptogrpahy" rule though. :wink:

Unvote

@Bessie: I interpreted this as Moody thinking somitomi was making a joke about me and PW (which he was) and then half-joking that the woofs and meows counted as a code.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:48 am UTC

@Flicky: I think your problem is trying to judge people based on their text, when to catch scum you must read subtext for discrepancies from what a townie thought process would be. Next time you read someone, only note when what they say seems odd or out of place to what you imagine they should be thinking in the current situation. Just summarizing posts is rarely useful.

Btw, although the text of my woofs were (almost) empty, there was plenty of subtext which Sabrar and Bessie (and apparently some others) were able to read. Some of that is from knowing me better, but not all of it.

@somitomi: At what point did you figure I was just going for reactions?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:50 am UTC

Actually that advise to Flicky goes for PW too. There is no need to do all that typing if it's not helping you think. Just pull out the interesting bits.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:39 am UTC

Madge wrote:I'd ask VTs to flip a coin* at the beginning of D2 and either say "no useful info from the night" or leave no reference. PRs, if you got a naive result, say "no useful info from the night", and if you got a non-naive result, leave no reference**.
This is unnecessary. The peculiarity of this setup that everyone (except for BoomFrog) seems to forget constantly is that PR's are uniquely identifiable by their claims and don't need to breadcrumb to prove themselves.

Madge wrote:**obviously cop with guilty should claim right away;
Nope. Cop with guilty result should only claim after half of the day has passed so that we can see connections to the caught scum during the first half while scum is unaware. Or if the Cop is sufficiently sure about themselves they can try to indicate their result in the read-list and hope to get a second check N2.

Madge wrote:Also, now I think about it, it may be better to claim a non-naive result outright
Nope again, this is bad advice.


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