Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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BoomFrog
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:37 pm UTC

Sabrar I'm raising to neutral, he's been raising good points, and I wouldn't want to lynch him D1. He's a good enough player that I likely won't be confident lynching him unless it's by PoE or connections to other scum.

Bessie's play has been worrying. The point about PW timing being off was a valid point, however PW's explination is reasonable and this should be slight scummy points and moving on. I know she stubbornly prides herself in being stubborn, but the somitomi "misunderstanding" line of questioning has been a complete waste of time and I wonder if it's an intentional waste of time so Bessie didn't need to provide more substantial content.

No... it seems genuine, she's gone off on plytho for less. Bessie, please stop grilling somitomi on the "misunderstanding". It's not helping find scum.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:44 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:I hopefully don't need to make a point on PW, and bessie and BoomFrog I have read scum ever since this game started.

I can understand your scum read of me for the "woofing" which you interpreted as active lurking. But in light of my reasons and the fact that I was still providing more content then half the players, why do you still think I'm scummy?

Also, why is Bessie scummy? I must have missed this.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:52 pm UTC

Madge wrote:I'm not sure why bessie says she thinks I know her alignment. I don't. I mean, I suspect town, but I suspect everyone of being town right now!

Really? Do you really not get what Bessie was saying?

Unvote cemper
Vote Madge


My bottom five are Madge, PW, sonotomi, Flicky and cemper. But I'm hoping to cut that list down with some analysis later. Unfortunately I'm sick today which is probably going to make my while week crazy busy.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby somitomi » Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:06 pm UTC

bessie wrote:That you and LaserGuy are fishing to see if I would easily swing my vote to Peaceful Whale, or if you’re going to have to work on me.

For what it's worth, Jimbob asked a similar question too.
bessie wrote:Madge – inexperience challenged scum
Peaceful Whale - newbie scum
somitomi – newbie scum

That looks interesting considering I'm voting Madge as we speak.
Peaceful Whale wrote:(If we think we’ve caught breadcrumbs for a PR, should we say it, I don’t think so as it helps scum too much)

I don't think there'd be breadcrumbs in this game, someone already mentioned there's no need to prove claims since any false claim would be revealed quickly. But otherwise no, the longer PRs stay secret the better for town.

Unofficial votals:
LaserGuy - 1 (flicky1991)
somitomi - 2 (Vicarin, bessie)
flicky1991 - 1 (cemper93)
Madge - 3 (Sabrar, somitomi, BoomFrog)
No lynch - 1 (Hari Seldon)
Peaceful Whale - 1 (LaserGuy)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:30 pm UTC

bessie wrote:You are probably correct. I may be thinking of BoomFrog in Crossover, no time to check now.

Indeed, it was. I lightly attacked you for finding Moody neutral what he was scum. But I was scum, trying to discredit you. I think your analysis of Moody in crossover was actually fair.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:26 pm UTC

bessie wrote:but I’m not going to ignore scummy behavior from Madge and then attack other players for the same scummy behavior. I do realize Madge has scummy content as town.
Ok. I'll just say that I don't support this type of play and let's leave it at that. If you're still interested we can continue this after the game.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby wam » Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:50 pm UTC

Current Votals

LaserGuy - 1 (, flicky1991)
somitomi - 2 (Vicarin, bessie)
flicky1991 - 1 (cemper93)
Madge - 3 (Sabrar, Somitomi, BoomFrog)
No Lynch - 1 (Hari Seldon)
Peaceful Whale - 1 (Laserguy)

Not voting: Peaceful Whale, Madge, jimbobmacdoodle

With 12 alive hammer requires 7 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:05 pm UTC

I am not fully read up yet, but I will have a summary of my reads sometime today. Can anyone who has not made their stance clear on No Lynching do so? If it is not going to happen, I would rather have my vote elsewhere.

These are the stances that I recall (correct me if I'm wrong):

For
Laser, Hari, Sabrar, Madge, PW

Undecided
Boom

Against
Jim, Vicarin, Flicky, Somitomi

So I believe I've just missed Cemper's and Bessie's stances.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby cemper93 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:46 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Also, why is Bessie scummy? I must have missed this.
In addition to the reasons when I originally voted her, she just rubs me off the wrong way ever since. Her scum-hunting efforts, by bessie standards, just didn't seem sincere. You enunciated it best yourself:
BoomFrog wrote:Bessie's play has been worrying. The point about PW timing being off was a valid point, however PW's explination is reasonable and this should be slight scummy points and moving on. I know she stubbornly prides herself in being stubborn, but the somitomi "misunderstanding" line of questioning has been a complete waste of time and I wonder if it's an intentional waste of time so Bessie didn't need to provide more substantial content.
Town!bessie just... knows these things, and doesn't play that way.

BoomFrog wrote:I can understand your scum read of me for the "woofing" which you interpreted as active lurking. But in light of my reasons and the fact that I was still providing more content then half the players, why do you still think I'm scummy?
Because since then, you've made exactly one large post. In it, you analyzed player's reactions to your active voting. It had some less-than-great logic that culminated in (probably deliberately) misrepresenting an argument of mine to start a bandwagon on me. It also had a weird defense of PeacefulWhale, who I consider scum. Since then, you've posted only short posts, mostly one-liners, and none of them convinced me overmuch: much of it was just okay, and although you raised some valid points too (such as on my strategy being flawed), you also showed some more weird patterns, such as this:
BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I'm about 85% sure LaserGuy is town,
What is the basis of your read?
His plan is so terrible, I'd expect scum!LaserGuy to be more cautious about advocating a plan so clearly bad for town. That got me to about 75%. I also liked that he reacted naturally to my shenanigans. Although, now that I am scrutinizing more and trying to compensate for ego, it is odd that he is willing to trust me after getting burned so badly in CrossOver.
Then some posts later:
BoomFrog wrote:Sorry, that was mean. I was going for shock value to make it funny. It's not clearly bad, and it's worth discussing to get something to discuss D1.
So basically you defended-but-not-really-defended LaserGuy, and when called out on your reasoning, you claimed it was just a joke. This pings me harder than a broken hardware firewall desperately trying to establish a network connection. Also, this:

BoomFrog wrote:My bottom five are Madge, PW, sonotomi, Flicky and cemper.
You gave advice to flicky that seemed to suggest you didn't believe flicky had made a bad scum comment, but a bad town comment. I asked you a question about why you believed that, and you ignored that question. Now, miraculously, flicky shows up in your expanded bottom five, even though last time you gave your bottoms it was only a bottom four, and there was no flicky contained therein. If that's not flipflopping, I don't know what is.

Hari Seldon wrote:So I believe I've just missed Cemper's and Bessie's stances [on No Lynch].
I will vote NL only if we cannot lynch any of my bottom four today (that is, flicky, BoomFrog, bessie or PW).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:49 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:
MC Doodle wrote:I don't really see why people are giving flicky a hard time. It seems to me that he's trying to contribute as best he can. I do feel like he didn't put enough effort into understanding what BoomFrog was doing, since it felt to me like it was pretty clear, and there were various players (including me) he indicated that it was for testing reactions. Slightly townie overall.
Can you show me some examples for good attempts at contribution from flicky? You say he didn't put enough effort into understanding BoomFrog. In your opinion, in understanding what did he put enough effort?
I'm not sure I follow your last sentence, but him not putting enough effort into understanding BoomFrog is indicated by this quote here:
flicky1991 wrote:
bessie wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:I see BoomFrog's woofs as deliberately unhelpful. There is no good reason for town to play that way.
So… how would it make more sense for scum to play this way?
Because it's unhelpful... am I not being clear enough? I don't understand why you're defending BoomFrog so much.
Sabrar wrote:I think somitomi tried to fake a town-slip, making him scum.
Can you be more specific?
He says that BoomFrog's play makes more sense for scum to follow, despite it clearly putting himself in the limelight (and generally it's better for scum to not draw attention to themselves). This shows to me that he's not really thinking about it.

The good contributions are small in size, but there are a number of small points that he made whilst workign on his reads list, for example, here he challenges Vicarin's faulty logic. Here he points out that BoomFrog's woofing doesn't allow him to do anything more than agree and disagree with posts (so not actually allowing the discussion to evolve). It's hardly the most useful stuff, but it's some contribution at least.

Sabrar wrote:@jimbob: you said you were okay with moody's read on PW. Why? Please analyze.
I'll try to come back to this when I work on my Peaceful Whale read later tonight.
LaserGuy wrote:It's helping me find scum.
How?

That should be everything that I've been explicitly asked about. My top scum candidates will come once I finish my reads.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby cemper93 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:04 pm UTC

MC Doodle wrote:The good contributions are small in size, but there are a number of small points that he made whilst workign on his reads list, for example, here he challenges Vicarin's faulty logic. Here he points out that BoomFrog's woofing doesn't allow him to do anything more than agree and disagree with posts (so not actually allowing the discussion to evolve). It's hardly the most useful stuff, but it's some contribution at least.
Thanks, this answers the question I was asking. As a follow-up, do you keep your previous opinion that flicky is contributing "as best he can", and do you still read him "slightly townie overall"?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:37 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle, about cemper wrote:I also don't like how he's flip-flopped around on the whole should PRs claim or not.
He did so when another player (somi) pointed out issues with his argument. I read this as a townie trying to discuss things reasonably and admitting their mistakes when proved wrong. It's very different from a non-committal "We should do this, but maybe we shouldn't because X, but maybe we should because Y", in my opinion.

I don't agree with the people arguing against PW over the "joke confirmation post" thing on the basis that he joked on entering the thread himself (e.g. this post), because I think it's perfectly valid to consider something a sign of scum even if you commit it yourself as town. Nothing wrong with acknowledging that your own town play looks scummy. However, I agree with... pretty much every other point against PW (weird reads, timing of starting the game, etc.).

Sabrar wrote:I'd like to ask everyone to make a list of those players whose lynch today they wouldn't oppose.
LaserGuy, Peaceful Whale, Madge
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:08 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale (previously town):
Spoiler:
Asks Vicarin about experience. Promises more stuff. Brings up joke confirmations. Post-by-post effort on BoomFrog - thinks woofing was active lurking, but thinks he agrees with him on most things. Considers who BF's scum buddies could be, and posts reasons. Comments on why he had somitomi as newbie/townie/not leaaders. Unsure whether he was referring to LaserGuy's plan, but actually not sure. Sabrar looking townie (points against him are mostly meta). Does a post-by-post breakdown of Sabrar too. Feels like people pouncing on Sabrar for no questions are doing it to distract them. Gives townie points to him for not attacking oomFrog. Sabrar not normal Sabrar, and on "do not lynch". Thinks voting analysis will hope catch scum.

Surprised bessie hasn't voted for him. Explains timings of his day. Apologises to various people for his play. Explains joke confirmation post - scum self-conscious about posts, and don't want to appear tense. Little time is pro scum. Thinks scum more likely to joke. Confused as to why he is being grilled. Doesn't follow own logic or anything. Been copying people like bessie. Doesn't trust himself to be townie. Asks about breadcrumbs.
@Peaceful Whale - you accuse BoomFrog of active lurking in your post-by-post breakdown of him (pre-end of woofs), but also put him as townie, and you agree with much of what he said. Which is it?

Overall, I like the effort that Peaceful Whale is putting in. He genuinely seems to care about the game, and is trying to do what he thinks is right. Some of his almost throwaway comments look pretty good. However, I can't shake this nagging feeling that he might almost be trying too hard to look townie. He's being very inconsistent in some places (see my above question). I particularly don't like the joking style comment - he appears to be too engaged with how scum might think to behave. I also have this vague feeling that in his scum game, he actually acted much more townie than his town games, although I could well be wrong on this. In summary, my gut says scum, my head says town, and I'm going to be put him in the slightly townie camp for now.

Sabrar (previously undecided):
Spoiler:
BF likely town, and bessie by extension. Thinks somitomi tried to fake a town slip. Very bad feelings about LG, but unsure about misguidedness. Doesn't like PW. Doesn't like BoomFrog's vote on him, following his woofing in Crossover comment. Discusses with bessie over certainty of setup and answers. Asks LG to explain his vote further. Challenges BF on apparent inconsistency. Explains apparent fake slip from somitomi, to do with knowledge of game start. Moody's content is small, and likely buddy with scum!PW. Tentative ordered list (PW and moody bottom). Calls out moody's wrong read of PW. Asks PW for in-own-words comments. Asks LG to explain active lurking accusation. Surprised that LG expects him to not fight back. Wants to know why LG doesn't ask more questions. Understood most important part of BF's woofs. Continues argument with LG and accuses him of actively refusing to help town, and summarises case before voting him. Doesn't understand BF's accusation against him. Explains times when decided that BF was likely town. Accepts BF's request to reread LG. Explains focus on LG as due to early vote. Discussion with LG continues unabated into Friday evening.

Knowing which roles are effective is small gain for town. Wants to know from BF why he reads LG as town. Points out hypocrisy in somitomi's posts. Addresses questions/comments by Vicarin, Madge, cemper, and me. bessie unlikely scum due to amount she defended BF, but backs down on this after some thinking. Doesn't htink flicky's town-slip is indicative. Asks me why I ignored the possibility of somitomi's buddy advising him to fake a town slip. Questions HS over reading closely comment. Thinks it possible for moody to be scum and not PW. bessie vote on somitomi huge overreaction.

Addresses comments by Madge on setup, as being unnecessary, and when cops should claim. Has no way of reading PW if he is town, but switches vote to Madge. Discusses with bessie about her attack on Madge. Responds to comments from Hari, but argues about his town-slip comments. Thinks it makes sense to No Lynch early. Prevents PRs from having to claim early, and expected value is positive. Engages with Vicarin a lot about NL.

Challenges me over wine and my FoS on HS. Asks me to analyze moody's read on PW. Engages with bessie over her attack on Madge. If PW or cemper is scum, other is very likely also. Has cemper, Madge, PW, somitomi as possible lynch candidates.
Sabrar, please post less it makes it hard to re-read you :P.

I struggle to read Sabrar at the best of times. He's not as easy to spot as scum as I feel he used to be. There's plenty of engagement with a range of topics, but he seems to be getting into arguments with a large number of people (Vicarin, me, bessie, LaserGuy). I feel like argumentative is a typical trait of Sabrar, but more so from town!Sabrar. Certainly, his content has picked up from where he was early game, so I'm inclined to put him as town for now.

Sabrar wrote:@jimbob: you said you were okay with moody's read on PW. Why? Please analyze.
The bit of the read I agreed with was the but about more content, and using that as a reason to not vote for him. I do agree that it was a bit early to eliminate somebody from the vote pool, but I was, and still am pretty happy with PW's content, so I was okay with moody's read on this point. The twitchiness, I originally took to mean that PW was all over the place, and he was a bit at times, so I don't have an issue with that label either. Does that answer your question?

Reads of somitomi and Vicarin to follow shortly hopefully before I go to bed.

@cemper - I see your question, but I don't really have anything new to judge flicky on, so I don't think I have much of an update on this read from my previous one. His sticking his neck out defending one particular point of PW whilst otherwise wanting to lynch him looks good to me.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:13 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:It's helping me find scum.


How?


I'm gonna pass on answering this one for now. Ask me again later in the game if you're still curious or I haven't made it obvious by then.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:06 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:You also showed some more weird patterns, such as this:
BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I'm about 85% sure LaserGuy is town,
What is the basis of your read?
His plan is so terrible, I'd expect scum!LaserGuy to be more cautious about advocating a plan so clearly bad for town. That got me to about 75%. I also liked that he reacted naturally to my shenanigans. Although, now that I am scrutinizing more and trying to compensate for ego, it is odd that he is willing to trust me after getting burned so badly in CrossOver.
Then some posts later:
BoomFrog wrote:Sorry, that was mean. I was going for shock value to make it funny. It's not clearly bad, and it's worth discussing to get something to discuss D1.
So basically you defended-but-not-really-defended LaserGuy, and when called out on your reasoning, you claimed it was just a joke. This pings me harder than a broken hardware firewall desperately trying to establish a network connection.
No one called me out in between those two posts. Why do you think I changed my stance based on bring called out?

And I can see how the second post sounds like a retraction of the first post, I apologise for bad communication, so let me clarify. LaserGuy's plan isn't terrible but it is still unpopular and causing him to get lots of flak. As mentioned before, scum generally avoids the limelight and I don't think LaserGuy has evolved his play to the BoomFrog-esk so scummy he's town style. So my read is that he proposed the plan to try and help town, not to earn townie points. Therefore, he's actually town.

Also, this:
BoomFrog wrote:My bottom five are Madge, PW, sonotomi, Flicky and cemper.
You gave advice to flicky that seemed to suggest you didn't believe flicky had made a bad scum comment, but a bad town comment. I asked you a question about why you believed that, and you ignored that question. Now, miraculously, flicky shows up in your expanded bottom five, even though last time you gave your bottoms it was only a bottom four, and there was no flicky contained therein. If that's not flipflopping, I don't know what is.
I didn't answer your question because I was waiting for Flicky to react. And yes, since my last big post, I have been sitting back a bit to try and see how things develop without me making waves. I gave Flicky advice as if he was town because, of course, I'm not sure. The fact that he hasn't responded to my advice has lowered my opinion of his town mindset. I am starting to suspect your interpretation of his mindset may be correct and that is part of why he is now in the list. I also wonder if his "I was pressured to make a reads list" was actually that he was told in scum chat that he should make a reads list. Lastly, he is clearly reading the thread, but is not seeming to do any actual scumhunting.

Hari Seldon wrote:So I believe I've just missed Cemper's and Bessie's stances [on No Lynch].
I am against NL unless Sabrar can convince me.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:06 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Does that answer your question?
I guess it does.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:09 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I am against NL unless Sabrar can convince me.
Nice sheep. Not going to convince anyone, I think from a game theory pov NL has definitely merits, unfortunately it does not move the game forward as much as I would like.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:18 pm UTC

@LaserGuy - okay, fair enough.

somitomi (previously town):
Spoiler:
Has started compiling reads. Even mislynches are beneficial early on. Unsure what BF is saying about my analysis of him. Asks LG for further reasons for voting Sabrar. Thinks LG stats are a bit of a stretch. Puzzled by BF's content. Doesn't see mafia doing it, but can't understand why town would do it either. Compares with Sabrar play in Secret Santa. Says Sabrar is giving him too much credit for the "fake" town-slip. Gives brief reads list. Flicky town (question about chat), PW slightly scummy (non-committal reads), LG slightly scummy (doubts benefit of plans, no lynch is odd), HS leaning scum (scores seem arbitrary), Vicarin reasonably townie (good points about LG schemes), Sabrar townie (remarking about everybody), me townie (thorough read, good points re. HS and LG suggestions), BF leaning town (accepts explanation), moody scummy (lurking, lack of good detail on reads), bessie town (lots of remarks, defended BF strongly), cemper scummy (flip flopped about LG strategy, five players as scum, doesn't like PR emphasis).

Five players as scum was not alignment indicative. Thinks mafia more likely to advocate claiming. Feels better about cemper after he revisited claiming topic. Clarifies suspicious comment about me and bessie. Doesn't understand why we would want more time. Confused by bessie's comment over PW timestamps. Continues this discussion with her over several posts. Finds questionable bessie is voting for him for defending scum!PW and bringing up Secret Santa. Points out to HS that mafia suspect a watcher (50% chance).

Reads other player cotent. Finds flicky reads non-committal. Finds it townie that Hari considers him scummy, but disputes Sabrar's case. Asks PW about mafia confirmations. Votes Madge, who hasn't added much to moody's post. Continues argument with bessie. Wants to know from PW whether he considers joke confirmations scummy or not. Doesn't find when PW went to sleep a strong tell either way. Asks Madge to comment on those not on her lists. Would be willing to lynch LG, Madge, or PW.
I don't really see anything wrong in somitomi's content, having read through it all. I think bessie is being over harsh with him over the grilling (although she raises an interesting point about timings around the chat question, which I haven't looked back at). I stand by my earlier comment that I doubt newbie scum!somitomi would have faked the "slip" that Sabrar claims he did, and I doubt that an experienced scum buddy would have advised him to make such a slip, for the reason that it might appear forced. I do find his five scum reads as somewhat suspicious, since it's easy for scum to lynch whoever looks easiest without appearing to contradict their reads when they make that sort of grouping. However, it is not a definitive scum point, and I feel like he is more likely town.

Vicarin (previously undecided):
Spoiler:
Votes BoomFrog for weirdness. Discusses with me trackers and who they can confirm. Points out that doctor saves give same benefit as no lynch, without the lack of a lynch. Finds cemper's read of somitomi interesting - doesn't find somitomi's content solid. Provides reads list - active lurking on somitomi, doesn't think LG's plan is trying to sabotage town, thinks HS being inconsistent, worried by Sabrar not asking questions about setup, but likes other questions, likes my chunky reads list, doesn't like BF being a dog, needs more info from moody, wants more from bessie, would like response from cemper - weird leaning towards LG's plan. Asks Sabrar for clarification on PW/moody link.

Unvotes BF after he stops woofing. Puts him as town for good explanation. Breaks down tracker cases. Votes somitomi, finds the 5 scummy exchange hilarious, and backtracking. Worried about moody and cemper. Voting records great even with mislynch. Scum not knowing which roles are effective is good for town. Wants people voting now. Finds it interesting that he has moved from 2nd scummiest to 2nd towniest on HS reads list. Points out that we can NL later on. Thinks LG would have put plan past scum buddies first. Asks flicky for other scum reads. Confused by bessie not voting Madge. Thinks somitomi is covering for PW, and points out errors in somitomi's post. Points out that PRs get more useful later on. Asks for votes again. Encourages Madge to vote for her worst scum vibe. somitomi is still scummiest, Madge not looking good, cemper and HS also not great. Refuses to give own reads list for now. Encourages HS to vote for whatever he believes. Big discussion with Sabrar about No Lynch, which I've skimmed over.

Peaceful Whale isn't making things easier for himself. Says he thinks he's put out lots of comments on different people. Has had doubts about somitomi and cemper for a while. PW won't stop being crazy. Madge has not improved recently. Hari and flicky also don't look good. Points out to Madge that PW could have been advised in scum chat. Points out that we should sort out the lynch soon due to allowing time for PR to claim. Advises vanilla townies to claim vanilla.
Since my previous full reads lists, I've been getting very strong townie vibes from Vicarin, as I read his posts over the weekend, although I can't articulate why they're so strong. For me, one of the towniest things is the call to votes, which feels more likely to come from town than scum generally. I do think he spends too much time discussing strategies, although there is content elsewhere on quite a range of people. I think he has too many scum candidates, because he's now suggested 6 people, twice as many as there are scum, as lynchables, or near lynchables. Still, overall feeling town here.

Town
BoomFrog
Vicarin
Sabrar
bessie
flicky
Peaceful Whale
LaserGuy
somitomi
--- <- I'd be happy to lynch anybody below this line.
Madge
cemper
Hari Seldon
Scum

Vote Hari Seldon
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matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

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Vicarin
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:27 pm UTC

I know that I've got 6 people as lynchable when there's only 3 scum, but there's just been so much really suspicious behaviour by a range of people. I'm also afraid I might not be looking at the regulars closely enough because I'm getting distracted...

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Vicarin
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:35 pm UTC

Also, should the plan be that if someone hits L-2 and they're a PR, they claim ASAP? Or at some other margin?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Peaceful Whale » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:20 am UTC

[quote="jimbobmacdoodle"]@Peaceful Whale - you accuse BoomFrog of active lurking in your post-by-post breakdown of him (pre-end of woofs), but also put him as townie, and you agree with much of what he said. Which is it? [/spoiler]
Can’t it be both? Note it’s an accusation, I understood what he was getting at (kinda) and didn’t really care. *Tiny* bit fed up with it I pressured him with the hope that he would stop. Which he has, and as he’s posted he’s moved up into “town category”.
I’m working on my “willing to lynch” stuff as I reread people. Right now it’s Cemper, Laserguy, and maybe Somitori. I really want to reread Madge/moody and flicky, as I haven’t seen their scumyness... I should probably pay closer attention to them. After I finish my reads list I’ll find someone to vote.

On the whole NL vs Lynch thing...
I personally believe lynching someone who the majority of people find scummy is better than NL, if they’re town, it’s clearing the water. If the scum, well, that’s great! I feel like removing people who cause confusion is better than letting them stay. I think this is better than NL, even if it can provide more information. However, I’d rather we wait until deadline (or close to it) to hammer. Hammering early kills off a lot of time for thoughts, posts, etc. The longer we wait, I feel like we’ll be more likely to catch scum. Long days helps town, as we can coordinate better, scum have their chat...
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Peaceful Whale
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Peaceful Whale » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:21 am UTC

Oops, that quote didn’t work... sorry!
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:23 am UTC

I would say that if someone is leading the lynch with <12 hours to go (maybe <24 if there's a large margin in the votes), then they should be claiming if they are a PR. L-2 is probably fine too, but approach of deadline is probably more likely than somebody accumulating so many votes.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:49 am UTC

Vicarin's point, is that we don't want to be scrambling for a new lynch target. It's more likely to be a bad lynch, and even worse, scum can hide their intentions in the panic instead of being accountable later for a misslynch.

The general rule is claim when you think you will be lynched if you don't claim. And yes that means we should try to reach consensus extra early (which in my experience has never happened but we should try.)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:53 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I am against NL unless Sabrar can convince me.
Nice sheep.

Uck.. that's not what I meant... :?
You are just the only person with the overlap in mafia experience and game theory knowledge to potentially change my mind. Most likely no one is changing my mind, but I was trying to be precise.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby bessie » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:36 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:I am not fully read up yet, but I will have a summary of my reads sometime today. Can anyone who has not made their stance clear on No Lynching do so? If it is not going to happen, I would rather have my vote elsewhere.

Well as Boomfrog said I stubbornly pride myself on being stubborn, and my overly inflated ego tells me I already caught the entire scum team, so I would rather lynch. But I’ll go along with no lynch if I can’t have one of my preferred lynch targets, in that I’m not going to vote someone I don't want to lynch just to ensure a lynch. I’m still pissed at myself for being pressured into voting Frozen Flame in Crossover. If enough players support it, No Lynch wins ties anyway.

I only skimmed today’s content so analysis in a bit. I just wanted to reply to this so it doesn’t hold up anything.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Madge » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:52 am UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:I’ll stop now, seeing as it’s not working at all, and try and be myself... even though no one likes it. :(


I like it PW! <3 please don't be disheartened.

I most prefer to NL but I'll take Somitomi or Bessie.

From my quick skim of everyones' responses it looks like Somitomi may be a good consensus - but I think I might also be a good consensus too and am ignoring that because bias :roll:

Vote: NL

I think it's a better choice than somitomi and my scummy meta is going to have me voting D1 to save myself. I will change my vote defensively as any elimination* of someone other than me is preferable to my own.

*except for PRs
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:26 am UTC

To anyone who actively prefers NL: what exactly are we going to discuss tomorrow that we couldn't discuss now if we do a NL? It's exceedingly unlikely a PR manages to get a conclusive hit on scum, so what would we be going on?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Madge » Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:38 am UTC

It'd basically be D1 v2.0, but there'd be room to speculate about whoever scum killed. It'd be pretty winey for sure, and I don't want to elaborate on avenues of exploration so as not to give scum information, but you can probably think of the sorts of conclusions different people dying would allow. And we'd bicker about that and then Bessie would accidentally sleep for 21 hours straight and we'd have to all speculate about THAT as well and we'd end up voting out probably the same person who would have been voted out today, but start D3 with two nights' worth of results.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:07 am UTC

I'm not really sure how you think that's a better situation than going for a lynch. If we assume PRs manage to claim, we've got a 3/8 chance of hitting scum even if we do it randomly. I'd say that's pretty damn fantastic odds for D1. And we get a ton of info for D2.

Also, you know those 2 days of night results could easily be 2 failed Doctor saves and 2 inconclusive watcher/tracker results? Only the Cop has a decent chance of directly finding scum, but there's the whole 50% chance they're naive. Tracker and watcher have a 1/11 chance of getting a result that implicates scum, and it's not even conclusive. NL just seems to be really praying that the Cop is sane.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Hari Seldon » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:12 am UTC

Cemper wrote:Maybe I just really don't get your maths stuff, but did you just deduct points from me for being potential partners with MC Doodle, while giving him townie points in the same breath?
I subtracted from each of you, and added a point to Jim for another reason.

somitomi wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:This is not true. If Scum does not have any reason to suspect a Watcher in a closed set up, then the existing Watcher would not have the deterrent function.

But mafia have every reason to suspect a Watcher in this setup, which contains 50% chance of a Watcher. Mafia could gamble and play like there's none, but I don't think they'd do that. From this perspective it seems like four uknown PRs are better, since mafia have to maneuver around all four if they want to be on the safe side.
This is my point. JimBob's assertion was that this game is not different from a game with an unknown setup.

Sabrar wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:There is no indication that Somitomi shared that perception or that a Scum partner shared that perception.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

But the absence of evidence is not the evidence of evidence. If I made the claim that a flying spaghetti monster existed, it would be my responsibility to prove it, not the responsibility of others to prove me wrong, because there is no established expectation for such a thing to exist. Do you really not understand where I am coming from?

JimBob wrote:@Hari Seldon - You picked up a tell on BoomFrog, but you haven't actually explained whether that tell is a scum tell or town tell. In fact, I'm not even sure I understand whether you were referring to something you could use as a scum tell, referring to Crossover. Would you mind clarifying, please (note, you don't need to go into the details of the tell, just what you meant by saying that you picked one up).
Perhaps indication is a better word than tell. I believe I have picked up on cues that are a more reliable indications of his alignment than trying to untangle the wifom I find inherent in his play. To be clear, these indicators do not just apply to Boom. It just that there are more upfront approaches to discerning someone such as, say, flicky's alignment, that are not a reliable means to discerning an experienced player's. Again, it is not just a Boom thing. I mentally weigh all tells based on how well I think a player can fake them.

Why do you feel this is important? If I had picked up on a Town tell or a Scum tell, how would one or the other affect your reading of me?

To address a point where Hari awarded me negative points: he said that I was trying to justify a town read of Sabrar, but I explicitly didn't put Sabrar in a town position, because I was very uncertain at the time, and it was too early to be able to commit to any firm judgement. I highlighted cases both for and against him. Isn't taking a balanced view a townie thing to do?
I actually did not say you were trying to do this. There is a subtle, but important difference in my actual statement. I explained this to you in the previous game. I rely heavily on introspection. As logical as we all try to make it, I believe that a lot of this game really comes down to intuition. I am entirely self aware of this and spend much of my time trying to understand why I feel a certain way about something, so that it can be looked at analytically. My statement was the explanation I came to for why I believed your comments on Sabrar felt strange to me. Of course, I do not know if you were actually tying to do this.

Your reaction does lead me to suspect that I was on the right track. It was such a mild point, and your hypersensitivity to it gives me the impression of having caught you with your pants down.

I don't agree with this point. From what I've played as Mafia, I don't consciously try to progress my reads from one point to another, any more than I do as town. I am always conscious as town to ensure that my reads make sense - I have often in the past bumped people from slightly town to scum, simply due to me having insufficient scum reads. Not knowing any of Hari's background though, I cannot say whether this is simply coming from an experience player, but a small part of me says that he's brought it up because he himself is actively trying to build a progression on certain players.
http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4244001#p4244001

How was the observation you referred to here stale? I was referring to bessie's last post, where she needled flicky and PW in a way I agreed with. I hadn't yet commented on that post, and she hadn't posted again since, so it's hardly out-of-date information. FOS Hari for misrepresentation.
I did not mean it in the sense of old, but rather in the sense of not having life or weight. Empty is a better word.

I came to the opinion during Secret Santa that I'm unlikely to be able to tell apart town-bessie from scum-bessie in general.
Perhaps her needling will help you.

cemper93 wrote:I would like to talk about my attack on flicky again. Almost nobody has commented on this in either way, but I strongly read flicky as scum now, and therefore I'm picking this up again.

I see and agree with your line of reasoning. However, I think the characteristics you point out could also just be the characteristics of being new.

LaserGuy wrote:Sabrar was asking me for an ordered list and that was what I was responding to. I am still providing reads as I go.

My point is, if the goal is to prevent Mafia from realizing your Town reads, why does it matter if it is in list form or spread out between posts? To subscribe to the theory, you ought not provide Town reads at all.

Peaceful Whale wrote:Meow...I’m not going to lie, I didn’t in the first place. In all my games, even when I’m town, I’ve been seen as pretty scummy. Only my noobyness got me through some of them. I’ve done stuff like this before. I sometimes find a reads list and copy it, but rearrange what I don’t agree with to fit my needs. I’ve kinda done the same thing here, but more extreme. I’ve been copying people like Bessie, she has already pointed out where. I’m sorry Bessie that your happened to be right about me. : cry : I don’t trust myself to be towny, so I try and follow people who I believe are town (pr at least doing a better job than I am).
This way I don’t screw up, get myself killed, or distract from actual scum. (I’ve mentioned how being towny is important for townies to do).
I’ll stop now, seeing as it’s not working at all, and try and be myself... even though no one likes it. :(

Try not to be so eager to post and worry about looking Town. Focus on fleshing out what you think of everyone else. It is OK to take time to review and polish your posts before you make them. You don't need to post them right away. Look for any contradictions you have, and if you run across one, think about that point deeper. Only one or the other can be true. Really try to figure out which one it is and post only when you've reached a conclusion.

For example: if you like to joke, is it more likely that when other people joke, it is scummy; or is it more likely that other people also just like to joke?

If you really aren't able to figure something out, then it's OK to ask what people think before making a judgement. But really, truly try to work it out yourself first. If you present your posts in a well thought out manner, you wont have to worry about looking townie, because you will be playing townie by doing this.

LaserGuy wrote:
Peaceful Whale wrote:In all my games, even when I’m town, I’ve been seen as pretty scummy.


*Squints at this*. Is this a slip?


@Bessie @JimBob @Somitomi What do you think about this?

@Bessie Why did you react negatively to Somitomi potentially using meta justification for his read on you, but neutrally to me?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Madge » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:23 am UTC

Gives us more chances for the watcher/tracker to work out which one of them is sane: watcher is also able to verify someone is town.

I'll lay out possibilities:

Watcher sees someone visit:
a)if target is dead, that's scum; claim partway through the day, we vote scum out
a1) sane doctor saves watcher from being killed by scum (potentially - doctor can use beer with their protection target - but sane doctor can guarantee another watcher result)
a2) no sane doctor, or doctor has bad gamble, watcher dies, but we trade PR for scum which is good
b)if target lives, it's another town PR - can corroborate a claim and also Watcher can use that info to guide their own votes.

Watcher doesn't see anyone visit:
watcher doesn't know their sanity; could be naive (50% chance) or their target wasn't visited (scum + 4 PRs means there are 4 non-watcher visits in the game. So, being a little bit conservative, a sane watcher gets no result 80% of the time: a good watcher is going to probably get more like 60% accuracy as docs and scum are both going to try to hit the "best NK targets"). Shake these two together (assuming my maths works) and there's 5:4 odds of the watcher being naive. So by Bayes, watcher is a little bit more confident they're naive

(The above is basically mirrored by tracker)

Basically, the "good" watcher/tracker have a more like 40% chance (IMO) of getting a useful result, and the chance is at least 20%.

Getting two naive results allows a them to be more confident they're naive, which is useful information to them. And if they were gonna get two naive results better to get them out of the way with more votes up our sleeves.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:23 am UTC

@Hari Seldon: I fully understand where you're coming from but I don't think it's that relevant. There doesn't have to be a precedent for something to occur.
Also you're ignoring the other part of that observation, i.e. it was very unlikely that somitomi actually forgot that the game was about to start.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Madge » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:27 am UTC

Madge wrote:Watcher doesn't see anyone visit:
watcher doesn't know their sanity; could be naive (50% chance) or their target wasn't visited (scum + 4 PRs means there are 4 non-watcher visits in the game. So, being a little bit conservative, a sane watcher gets no result 80% of the time: a good watcher is going to probably get more like 60% accuracy as docs and scum are both going to try to hit the "best NK targets"). Shake these two together (assuming my maths works) and there's 5:4 odds of the watcher being naive. So by Bayes, watcher is a little bit more confident they're naive


This is not clear and I think I stuffed up my maths, I'll lay out my intuitions for watcher accuracy:

Worst realistic: 80% no result
Good: 60% no result

5:4 odds were miscalculated. Naive!W gets NR 100% of the time and good!W gets NR 60% of the time, so the results are more like 5:3, so you have a 5/8 (~60%) chance of being a naive tracker if you get no result as opposed to the a priori 50% chance have right now.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:29 am UTC

For the record, Cemper is off my lynch list for D1. We don't see eye to eye but his reasons are plausible and consistent.

Although NL is the result in the case of a tie, please do not try and do that on purpose even if you support NL. You'd be acting against towns interests and we can't allow scum to have the excuse to do it.

[0.5] for Hari, for trying to reach a decision on NL instead of letting the issue linger. [1.0] for that whole last post.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:39 am UTC

@Madge: Finding out who is naive and confirming PRs is not actually very helpful. PRs are going to be all but confirmed just by claiming as long as we claim before MYLO/LYLO. The only sanity that is really helpful to know even without an actual result is the cop, so that they can confirm town. Watcher and trackers sanity is mostly irrelevant unless they have a result and thus know their sanity anyway.

Please answer my question that I asked you earlier. I even voted for you in the same post to make sure you'd pay attention. The answer may cause me to not want to lynch you.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:41 am UTC

@Madge: I wouldn't say that watcher/tracker seeing another PR is terribly useful, as they need to then try to lead town without outing how they know that the other PR is town. PRs don't need another PR to back then up if they claim, as they are only not believed if a scum tries to counterclaim, so the watcher/tracker results are only really useful if they hit scum. Which is unlikely. So, I'm not seeing the benefits of these results.

As a thought experiment, say you're the Watcher, and you find out 2 of your fellow PRs in the first 2 nights. What do you do with that info without outing yourself and them?

Ninja'd by BoomFrog saying most of this but I'm not going to delete it after putting the effort in.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Madge » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:44 am UTC

What do I do? Probably not all that great because y'all think I'm scummy. Bessie, for example, could change her tactics slightly.

@BF: yeah, I didn't realise Bessie was saying I was scum and scum!Madge would know she was town. I made that connection once someone pointed it out later on though, but I wrote that remark before I read that other person's post explaining.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:53 am UTC

So you're saying that the NL would have just been a complete freebie for the Mafia in that situation, but you still support NLing? You're just hoping that people you think are strong town players are our PRs, and if not, well, too bad?

Come on.

Unvote somitomi
Vote Madge

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Madge » Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:03 am UTC

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying :roll:
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