Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

For your simulated organized crime needs.

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flicky1991
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:52 am UTC

Oof. Nothing but a PR claim is getting me out of this one, right?

I'm vanilla. :(
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:00 am UTC

Well, I'd still prefer Madge, but you're definitively a better lynch from my PoV than a claimed Tracker with no CC.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:01 am UTC

I'm opposed to a flicky-lynch. Not only do I get townie-vibes from him, as scum he could have cc-d Tracker as a last resort. Plus I find it suspicious that his early townie-slip (where I was the only one who doubted it) is so easily forgotten.

Vote: Madge

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:05 am UTC

Remind me everyone, why is Madge off the hook again?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:09 am UTC

Also where is cemper?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:11 am UTC

If the next lynch target under consideration here tries to CC Tracker, then it's pretty safe to lynch them first, as unless somitomi is psychic, it would be pretty lucky to guess that that another lynch candidate is a specific PR.

Ugh, I hate switching again seeing as flicky just claimed, but Madge is still so suspect...

Unvote flicky1991
Vote Madge

@Sabrar: I have no idea really, the soft ambiguous claim made people jump off for some reason.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:27 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Why did you think he was scum? If there's a post where you mentioned it, I must have missed it.

First post
Explanation
Lynchable list
Reinforcement

I wonder how you missed all these, I even had a discussion with Hari Seldon about the main point.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:28 am UTC

@Vicarin: I know, that was sarcasm.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:29 am UTC

Almost forgot.
bessie wrote:But it really hurts me that you and Sabrar are so unwilling to take my personality into consideration and afford me the same courtesy of trying to understand how I play.

You may be totally right here. I'll think about it.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:31 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Vicarin: I know, that was sarcasm.


Heh, fair enough.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Madge » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:41 am UTC

I'm sorry Bessie :(. I didn't mean to hurt your feelings by not reading your posts close enough. It breaks my heart that I broke your heart. I love having you around and please don't take anything I say personally, I - uh, tend to say things without thinking them through.

Work day's almost over, busy day with the intern, going to see if i can squeeze in a meditation, ride my bike home, eat dinner, make brownies, play dnd. I'm going to have to squeeze another post in but I'm not going to be online in the last 5 hours of the Day so I will also have to consider whether I want to claim or not.

Current Unofficial Votals

Madge - 2 (Sabrar, Vicarin)
flicky1991 - 4 (cemper93, BoomFrog, LaserGuy, Madge)
Hari Seldon - 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)
Peaceful Whale - 1 (flicky1991)
LaserGuy - 1 (Hari Seldon)

Not voting: Peaceful Whale, somitomi

With 12 alive hammer requires 7 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Madge » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:41 am UTC

EBWOP my unofficial votals don't have an accurate "not voting" list btw because i didn't keep that
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:43 am UTC

I don't think Peaceful Whale has said anything for a while either, would be good to have input.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:47 am UTC

I'll next be online in about five hours, and I expect that will be my last opportunity before deadline.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:54 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Why did you think he was scum? If there's a post where you mentioned it, I must have missed it.

First post
Explanation
Lynchable list
Reinforcement

I wonder how you missed all these, I even had a discussion with Hari Seldon about the main point.


Oh, no, I've read all of these. I was just giving you the benefit of the doubt that your case wasn't as thin as I thought it was.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:12 am UTC

Let's chalk this up to the fact that you don't know me at all. Or that you just pretend it.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:47 am UTC

@BoomFrog: do you really not realize the claiming strategy of caught scum in this setup?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:06 am UTC

I believe flicky's claim, tentatively. The way it was expressed shows that he was aware enough to claim PR, had he wanted to, although I still feel he needs to pick up content. I see no reason to disbelieve somitomi's claim either, given the lack of counter-analysis.

I won't oppose a Madge lynch, since she was third scummiest on my list, but I'd still prefer a cemper or Hari lynch, neither of whom, I might add, have said anything in a while. I'd like people to explain why they prefer Madge over either of these two.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Peaceful Whale » Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:48 am UTC

Well, I’m not tracker, so...

Reads on Somitori:
Town
Well, with the recent turn of events, I believe her to be cleared towny... regardless of past scumminess.
It doesn’t make sense for anyone who isn’t town to claim this, if town false claimed, she’d die, and then they’d die. Same with scum. Basically I one is false claiming, it’s just stupid, and a last ditch effort to cause confusion if you’re scum. But as there are no claims against her, I don’t believe that she is...
I think everyone agrees with me here?

Now on to...
MADGE/MOODY!!!!!

Moody:
Lurker...
He was pretty anti-Laserguy plan, which to me is towny points, scum wouldn’t feel the need to do something like this, they’d probably just give a no or yes... it’s simply easier for them to do that.
He gives partial reads on me, boom, laser, and Hari... basically notes that he’s looking forward to lynching boom if he doesn’t stop woofing. As I’ve noted, people who jump on his woofs don’t look so good in my eyes.
He only gave 6(?) posts... very lurky... and then is replaced.
@Mod: why was moody replaced? Is he ok?
Not enough content to decide if he’s scummy or not... but has a slight scum lean
...
Then here comes MADGE!!!
Leaning town. Very enthusiastic town.
Who at the time of this writing has 20 poooooooosts!!! A lot more than moody had!

I like her first post, it doesn’t sound like someone having to replace a lurking scum... very cheerful, very madgey.
Reading her post I’m moved over to the “no-lynch” statistics don’t lie! However if I find anyone particular scummy I may LYNCH THEM!!! She likes the Laserguy plan.
However I feel like this is more like the way I poooooost. A bunch of thoughts here and there, but I don’t see it as scummy, just an observation.
She then decides (in poooost 2) to *kill* put to bed the Laserguy plan, as it doesn’t work if one PR disagrees. (Dang, I put PW instead of PR 4 times there...)
She then goes on to defend me... idk how to really judge this, I feel like if she were scum, she’d push harder for my lynch...
She’s been REALLY enthusiastic, I don’t know how this compares to her normal meta... but it’s there.
I think I may be blinded by the enthusiasm, it makes me really want her to be town, and it makes it hard to imagine such a (bubbly?) scum...
She’s pushed really hard for NL... and makes a lot of valid points, however I don’t know if this is scummy or towny. If she’s scum, I bet she’s developed a pretty good plan. (I looked back at (smallville?) and saw the ending, where she apparently played a pretty mean scum. Mean as in smart/strong/very good)
She then posts a schedule of when she’ll be able to be active... I think this is towny, as it doesn’t give scum a chance to lurk their way through life.
She starts to get unvoted, stuff happens. (I may come back to this, it could be important)

She does appear to have worked herself into a knot with her claiming thing, boom told her not to... so she doesn’t, I don’t think she should either, as Somi already has...

I don’t like how she’d rather vote Bessie, but that’s her... I’ll look into Bessie later, but she’s in the town section.

For now, Madge is looking pretty towny, and not a viable lynch target.

Finally...
Flicky!!!

Verdict: Weird flicky.
I’d think he’d give better reads than this, but I think I understand where he’s coming from.
Flicky is normally gracing forum games, namely ones where you just post, he’s used to um... bird poop posting. I think mafia has kinda worn him down... Please flicky! Don’t give up! We love you!
Other than that, I don’t like his play style, it’s pretty scummy.

I’ve already mentioned how he’s more serious than he is normally in forum games... don’t believe he’s played mafia before.
He notices that the role PM says scum have night chat, and the rules have day chat... others have pointed out how this looks bad.
(Thanks for quoting me so I could find the thread easily)
I pooooosted soon after, and foolishly believed the game had started not that long ago...
I also noticed that it does not appear that I realized what scum counter claiming was such a bad idea... (when the real PR is lynched, they’re going to die...)
I feel like I’ve changed a lot since I started posting...
Back to flicky!
Wow, he’s caught a lot of my missteps, which are to be expected with my meta... (what’s my meta?)
The thing I’m kinda iffy on is how long it took for his reads list... but idk how fast he types and stuff...
Not really scummy, just kinda weird. Who am I to judge though? I’m really weird...
Says he’s got me as scum because my posts are worse... :cry: that’s okay though, they really haven’t been at good. I’m trying better now.
He’s got Cemper as his towniest read... this goes against what a lot of other people have thunked. It shows that either: A: he’s scum buddies with him or B: he’s actually think for himself and not snipping stuff from others like I’m infamous for.
He wants a lazerguy, Madge, or me lynch.

Overall he’s kinda stuck to his original reads which appear to be based more on gut instinct than anything else, and what he can remember.
He’s brushed off most accusations against him. It makes me wonder if he’s trying not to draw attention to them, as it could make him look scummier...

I don’t like this post either...
flicky1991 wrote:I would consider changing my vote to Madge if there's still a tie and deadline is close, since I don't want a No Lynch.

I don’t really like this, I think this came after he should have stopped thinking of Madge as scummy, and thought I was more scummy...(I don’t know how to explain this better)
I feel like town!flicky would rather NL than a mislynch. However I dont know what he was thinking at the time of this post... hopefully he thought Madge was scum.

(Done with reads)

(Closing paragraph)

Ok... thats done... I’m glad I was able to basically trash me somi read...

Given as there’s no time to reread everyone, and NL isn’t an option...
Between flicky, Madge, and somi... Flicky is definitely the scummiest, and the most lynchable. I would not mind his lynch.
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby somitomi » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:12 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:It's alright, this is pretty much the expected outcome of D1. I was hoping you cut it a bit closer though since there's a close race.

Madge wrote:(DAMNIT, just read Somitomi's claim. What's done is done and yeah, if you were about to go to bed, let's not have another sleepgate when you wake up, so you probably made the right decision.)

Sorry everyone. I knew I wouldn't be able to check back for at least the 10-11 hours after going to bed and I was worried there wouldn't be enoug time for everyone to unvote and sort everything out. In retrospect perhaps I should've asked when to claim if I were to do so sometime after Madge's soft claim. Speaking of which I didn't like her backing out of it, but forcing townPR!Madge to claim would be a bad move.

Note: I'll probably be online intermittently until deadline

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:27 am UTC

Claiming earlier when it's looking likely that you'll be lynched is fine, otherwise we end up with this chaotic vote reshuffling just before the deadline that I've been trying to avoid.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:31 am UTC

@Peaceful Whale - flicky has played before. He was my (town) partner in PenPals, and replaced into Secret Santa (and then promptly got lynched). I don't remember if he's played any other games, but I expect at least one other. Also, without needing to do a complete reread if you don't have time, what is your opinion on cemper and Hari Seldon, and do you have anything to explain that opinion?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby somitomi » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:46 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I won't oppose a Madge lynch, since she was third scummiest on my list, but I'd still prefer a cemper or Hari lynch, neither of whom, I might add, have said anything in a while. I'd like people to explain why they prefer Madge over either of these two.

I generally read both as town, although this pings me on second read. It seems like cemper understood BoomFrog's woof-code, but then they later argue that BoomFrog isn't committing at all. To a lesser extent I get a similar feel from Hari misunderstanding my point here and voting No lynch after asserting he's willing to lynch any of his bottom three.
Overall I wouldn't necessary prefer lynching Madge to either of them, but that's partly influenced by not wanting to force a second claim.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:13 pm UTC

flicky is a mislynch. There is a very simple idea behind this and it surprises me that the more experienced players don't see it.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:24 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:flicky is a mislynch. There is a very simple idea behind this and it surprises me that the more experienced players don't see it.


Is there any particular reason you're not explaining it then? Or do you want to see people's reactions first?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:27 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:flicky is a mislynch. There is a very simple idea behind this and it surprises me that the more experienced players don't see it.

I'm aware of a possible scum claim strategy (FWIW, I outlined it in Gojoe), but I'm hesitant to reveal it in case scum haven't thought of it, because as soon as it is revealed, it degenerates into wine, or scum simply follow the reasonably good strategy. What concerns me slightly is that scum!you could be equally aware of the same strategy and have advised scum-buddy!flicky to claim in a manner opposite to that for precisely that wine reason. Of course, scum!flicky, or one of his buddies could also be aware of the strategy and do this, without the buddy needing to be you. Can you disclose why you are convinced that the strategy is a) clear and obvious enough that scum will definitely see it, and b) why if they did see it, it is definitely the approach that they followed, without revealing the strategy?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:35 pm UTC

I'm honestly not seeing a better move for scum than just claiming vanilla in this, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt so if you think there's some killer strategy that they wouldn't have thought of and you think it's better keeping it under wraps, go nuts.

Seriously, any other claim seems really dumb for scum to me, they can't afford to trade scum for PRs in this game.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:42 pm UTC

Game started a week ago. We talked about claims and counterclaims. If scum-team has at least 1 experienced player then they should be aware of the strategy which gives the most expected value for them.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:46 pm UTC

Ok, then you want to explain it so it's out there? Only lose out if all 3 scum are inexperienced in which case we have a better shot anyway.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:48 pm UTC

Want to hear first from those who are currently voting flicky, mainly cemper, BoomFrog and LaserGuy.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:52 pm UTC

Ugh, probably will be sleeping in an hour, but fine. Should have been sorting all this stuff out way before the deadline. I'm probably just going to leave my vote on Madge if nothing else comes up.

I'm going to be really annoyed D2 if we somehow end up NLing.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:53 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:don’t believe he’s played mafia before
... I was in a game you modded (Secret Santa). I'm certain there's at least one game where we were both players, too.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby cemper93 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:54 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Also where is cemper?
Slightly RL busy, had some problems keeping up with the speed around here. (13 pages on D1 is insane to me.) I don't have much to say anyway, I still want to lynch flicky and it appears that he's going to be lynched, therefore I'm happy. I'll report back tomorrow with some analysis -- I agree with you that it's weird that people treat Madge as town all of a sudden, and I think there may be scum happy to get off that train for one reason or another. I've only done a cursory read though and am hence hesitant to make judgments before giving this more thought. I don't think that it matters before deadline anyway.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:55 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
Peaceful Whale wrote:don’t believe he’s played mafia before
... I was in a game you modded (Secret Santa). I'm certain there's at least one game where we were both players, too.
It was Refrigerator Mafia where we were both players.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Suzaku » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:06 pm UTC

Current Votals

flicky1991 - 4 (cemper93, BoomFrog, LaserGuy, Madge)
Hari Seldon - 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)
Peaceful Whale - 1 (flicky1991)
LaserGuy - 1 (Hari Seldon)
Madge - 2 (Sabrar, Vicarin)

Not voting: Peaceful Whale, somitomi, bessie

With 12 alive hammer requires 7 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
Deadline in just under 6 hours.

@Mod: why was moody replaced? Is he ok?
He requested replacement.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:13 pm UTC

Well, this is probably my last post before deadline.

If Sabrar is gonna prove I'm town, now would be a good time...
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:18 pm UTC

If you want to improve your chances of surviving, presenting a final case for someone else does help. At least do a last town-scum reads list so we'll have some info if you die.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:20 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:I don't have much to say anyway, I still want to lynch flicky and it appears that he's going to be lynched, therefore I'm happy.
So you don't care that he claimed vanilla?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:23 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:At least do a last town-scum reads list so we'll have some info if you die.
The threat of being lynched hasn't made any of my reads clearer. Same three at the bottom. cemper still seems townie to me even though he's insisting that I be lynched.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Madge » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:56 pm UTC

Just checking in - kicked my D&D group out because I need to sleep, no changes in votals that I can see, I'm going to be asleep until deadline

(NOTE: IN SPIRIT OF SLEEPGATE I MAY NOT ACTUALLY FALL ASLEEP FOR LIKE AN HOUR, but for all intents and purposes, I'm sleepsies!)
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