Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:12 pm UTC

@cemper: D2 started, please come back!

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BoomFrog
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:15 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Yes, I am aware that I'm fallible, but the evidence is strong enough I don't want to lynch her.
Ok, I’m going to make a, um uh, meta read too. :oops:

I think Peaceful Whale slipped in this post that moody was his scum partner.
Peaceful Whale wrote:@Mod: why was moody replaced? Is he ok?

See also this post.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Hi Madge! Your moody’s Sub right? What happened to moody, I don’t think the mods said...

@moody are you okay? (Post in gojoe, don’t spoil it!)
Peaceful Whale can be a bit…hmm...twitchy? The second post quoted above pinged me slightly when I first read it. The first post reinforced suspicions I already had. I think Peaceful Whale was feeling a bit abandoned.
That's a reasonable point, although I disagree with how strong it is. I was thinking the exact same things as PW asked, but I knew the mods would share what was appropriate and asking for more detail wasn't useful. I'd bet you were concerned as well.

Reference this post.
BoomFrog wrote:Players who are Peaceful Whale: Peaceful Whale
Yep, he get's his own category. This post was very interesting:
Peaceful Whale wrote:Purely scumswho doesn’t care?
Developing a new language?
Creating a master plan and is distracting us?
Not realizing that they’re woofing?
Filter?
Evil mod?

This is the kind of stream of consciousness posting that I love to evaluate. He's just spouting off whatever he can think of. Notice he didn't propose "townie who doesn't care" or "townie messing around". If PW was scum he would know for a fact that I'm town and I don't think he would have excluded that possibility. I think this catagory is actually, "People who didn't get it but didn't care." which puts him in a townie natural reaction category. Townie points here too.
So BoomFrog, now that Peaceful Whale’s scum, what do you think of him not considering the “fact” that you are town in his stream of consciousness post?
I'd say I confirmed what I already knew, PW is really hard to read. Now that you made me really stop and think about it, he is self-conscious and over-corrects more often then he is ignorant. This evidence was only a town lean anyway, it obviously didn't stop me from supporting his lynch, when the scummier-seeming candidates were eliminated.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:17 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@cemper: D2 started, please come back!

I think you need to fake quote him, not just use @ to trigger a ping.
cemper93 wrote:zzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzz

D2 has started.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:49 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Actually, yeah, I think my question I want most answered is bottom four scum picks from Bessie, LaserGuy, Cemper and I guess Madge.

How did you miss this? You quoted it two times.

:| Obviously, I mean an updated list that incorporates the vast amount of new information we have. I understand you are going for aggressive accusing, but try and think about context a little bit here.

@bessie: you misinterpreted the question (and I must agree with BoomFrog, this feels deliberate) and then you ignored it completely. Why?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:14 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:My current guess is LaserGuy and Cemper.
Why LaserGuy?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:31 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:My current guess is LaserGuy and Cemper.
Why LaserGuy?

Because he felt like he didn't care about the lynch. He started the day strong, then hung back (which was fine), then... kept hanging back. He didn't form any strong opinions or try and influence others. He stayed in data gathering mode when it was time for action. I think he was worried about the lynch because the top 3 candidates were all town.

I'm less strong on Cemper. The JimBob-LaserGuy connection is interesting.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:34 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I think he was worried about the lynch because the top 3 candidates were all town.
:?: :?: :?: If he was scum then that'd be ideal for him.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:37 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:My current guess is LaserGuy and Cemper.
Why LaserGuy?

Because he felt like he didn't care about the lynch. He started the day strong, then hung back (which was fine), then... kept hanging back. He didn't form any strong opinions or try and influence others. He stayed in data gathering mode when it was time for action. I think he was worried about the lynch because the top 3 candidates were all town.

I'm less strong on Cemper. The JimBob-LaserGuy connection is interesting.

EBWOP: I think he was not worried about the lynch because the top 3 candidates were all town.
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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:40 pm UTC

And I thought that was deliberate and I understood what you meant. :)

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:46 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:He started the day strong, then hung back (which was fine), then... kept hanging back. He didn't form any strong opinions or try and influence others. He stayed in data gathering mode when it was time for action.
I think he was less active towards day-end but I don't think he avoided giving opinions.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:00 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:He started the day strong, then hung back (which was fine), then... kept hanging back. He didn't form any strong opinions or try and influence others. He stayed in data gathering mode when it was time for action.
I think he was less active towards day-end but I don't think he avoided giving opinions.

He gave opinions, but he didn't drive anything. I'm not saying everyone needs to drive town, but he was too laid back about it.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:59 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:The problem is I really don't think Hari or cemper are scum.
Why did you think that (wrt cemper) and what changed? He posted twice between that quote and where you had him as scum and those posts contained basically no info.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:23 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:The problem is I really don't think Hari or cemper are scum.
Why did you think that (wrt cemper) and what changed? He posted twice between that quote and where you had him as scum and those posts contained basically no info.

My scum assessment of cemper was mostly from his reaction to the woofs, but Hari's post made me rethink all of those opinions, and flicky quoted cemper's main post about me here and it was actually really reasonable.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:29 pm UTC

Noting that cemper was reading the thread earlier but didn't post despite being pinged to do so.

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Yes, I am aware that I'm fallible, but the evidence is strong enough I don't want to lynch her.
Ok, I’m going to make a, um uh, meta read too. :oops:

I think Peaceful Whale slipped in this post that moody was his scum partner.
Peaceful Whale wrote:@Mod: why was moody replaced? Is he ok?

See also this post.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Hi Madge! Your moody’s Sub right? What happened to moody, I don’t think the mods said...

@moody are you okay? (Post in gojoe, don’t spoil it!)
Peaceful Whale can be a bit…hmm...twitchy? The second post quoted above pinged me slightly when I first read it. The first post reinforced suspicions I already had. I think Peaceful Whale was feeling a bit abandoned.


If PW had concerns about scum!moody, why do you think that he would have posted them in-thread rather than in scumchat?

moody's defense of PW feels... uncharacteristic of scum!moody to me. In the two games I've played before where he was mafia (Hallowe'en and Crossover), he basically ignored his buddy the whole game. Actually, looking at some previous games post-by-post analysis like this this is something moody does as Town (Fridge, several other examples in that game) (Secret Santa, multiple examples again). I can't find an example of him doing this as scum (he doesn't do this in Crossover, Hallowe'en, or when he replaced in X-Men). I think this is Town!moody/Madge.

bessie wrote:No. I’m accusing Peaceful Whale of copying my meta and doing something I did in Secret Santa 2017, and in other previous games.


You didn't do any detailed confirmation post analysis in Secret Santa and I doubt PW was paying close enough attention to that game to note your one throwaway reference to this. Also, you were mafia that game. Why do you think scum!PW would be copying scum!bessie rather than Town!bessie?

bessie wrote:[Madge]Why do you keep covering for him [PW]?

bessie wrote:If I’m wrong about Peaceful Whale, I still have other reasons to suspect somitomi.

bessie wrote:Peaceful Whale, you posted! Do we have Madge to thank for this?

bessie wrote:Covering for Peaceful Whale there [somitomi]? Take another look at my post.

bessie wrote:If I’m wrong about Peaceful Whale, I still have other reasons to suspect somitomi.


Talk to me about this. You spent most of D1 implicitly reading PW as scum and using that read to motivate your scumreads on Madge/somitomi. Why were you so busy hunting for his buddies? If you had such a strong scumread on PW, why didn't you ever vote for him?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:32 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:My scum assessment of cemper was mostly from his reaction to the woofs, but Hari's post made me rethink all of those opinions, and flicky quoted cemper's main post about me here and it was actually really reasonable.
So then why do you think he's scum now?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:37 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:You didn't do any detailed confirmation post analysis in Secret Santa and I doubt PW was paying close enough attention to that game to note your one throwaway reference to this. Also, you were mafia that game. Why do you think scum!PW would be copying scum!bessie rather than Town!bessie?


Which is made all the more interesting given that PW admitted to copying you.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:54 pm UTC

My plan for this weekend: 1) Analyse interactions with Peaceful Whale (starting with the 3 I outlined earlier, then LaserGuy, and flicky, then everybody else). 2) Update reads, based on other content. So, first up, interaction analysis.

cemper (full breakdown in spoiler):
Spoiler:
From cemper's posts:
Doesn't expect newbies to have a meta.
Reads list - comments on jokey posts. Analysis post is lacking. Claims to be new. The more scummy, the more experienced they are (notes that he [cemper] got by as scum in his first game by pretending to suck at mafia). PW's content sucked pretty hard.
Somitomi commented reasonably on PW's evaluation of Sabrar and LG's behaviour.This was the post. In that somitomi mentioned that he thought Sabrar wouldn't look scummier later in the game, in reference to PW's plan to reread Sabrar.
In reaction to BoomFrog's comments on PW's reasons for BF's woofing, he asks him why he thinks PW's reaction was townie and natural. In the same post, he also has PW in his bottom four.
At the end of this post, he notes that flicky didn't record the reads that PW and two others made.
Comments on PW's hypocisy over scum joking.
Here, PW is on his lynch list, saying he hoped he didn't need to make a point on him.
Briefly notes his scum read on PW again and brings up his earlier comment about BF's defence of him. Will vote NL if he can't get one of his preferred choices (which includes PW).

Posts by PW relating to cemper:
Asks cemper if he's played before. Notes in his next post that he has.
In this analysis post, he puts cemper on the scummier side, balanced with BF (the townier one is, the scummier the other), due to butting of heads.
Not exactly sure how to parse this post where PW posts what he thinks cemper's intentions were, and still wants to hear from him.
Notes cemper's joke confirmation and repeats that he doesn't think BF and cemper are buddies.
While analysing Sabrar, PW just thought of a "LaserGuy, cemper, BF" team, despite his earlier comments, due to how they had been butting heads with Sabrar.
Apologises to cemper for sucking, and brings up his previous scum game where he coasted through. It's unclear from immediate context why he's apologising here.
Responds to cemper's comment about his hypocrisy re. joke confirmations.
Has cemper in his lynch pool.
Notes flicky's towniest read of cemper, being different to everybody else's read.
cemper93 wrote:I would think them the more scummy the more experienced they are, mostly because I remember that the first game that I have played on xkcdmafia, I got by as scum by pretending to suck more at mafia than I actually did. And Peaceful Whale's content sure sucks pretty hard.
I have no idea about cemper's first game, but I could easily see that PW might have noted in scum chat that he did exactly this (played worse than he actually had), which brought the idea up in cemper's mind.

Aside from that, there's very little direct interactions between cemper and PW, at least from cemper's direction (PW responds to a number of cemper's comments, but not the other way around). There are several references to each other, but usually only indirectly. They did have each other in the scummy bracket, although never voted for either of them.

I don't understand why he apologised to cemper in this post, given that I can't see anything in cemper's posts from around that time that warranted this apology. Indeed, the last time cemper mentioned PW before this post, PW previously responded directly to that comment immediately afterwards (with reference to the hypocrisy on joke confirmations). Could he accidentally be apologising for something that cemper said in scum chat? @Anybody - can anybody see why PW was apologising to cemper here? When doing the bessie analysis below, I came to the conclusion that this is probably referring to his earlier read on him, although I don't see why he felt the need to apologise for it.

Conclusion: fair chance of being scum buddies, but not exactly hard and fast.

bessie:
Spoiler:
Posts by bessie:
"Sleepgate". Thinks PW is making up an excuse for lurking when commenting about not being around at game start. Also says she hopes his content will be more than "less serious" stuff. Asks him about his reads, criticising some and asking aggressive questions about others.
Notes attempts by PW to distance himself from Vicarin. Explains to cemper that PW is new, and is dismayed that his content is typical of him.
Asks PW why he posted who joke confirmed. Comments on PW's post-by-post analysis of BF. Notes PW's thought of leaning scum on Sabrar after re-read. Explains that she was trying to aid PW over BF's content and get him to analyse said content to devise a read of him. Asks somitomi to review her reason for being suspicious of PW.
Continues her discussion with somitomi over sleepgate, explaining in detail why she finds the timings suspicious, and suggests he could have been waiting for scum chat. In the same post, also explains that she is suspicious of moody's PW post, but doesn't think that they are necessarily buddies. There might be reasons scum want to keep town!PW in the game, or to defend him in case he flips town.
In her post-by-post breakdown of somitomi, she notes various interactions he had with PW, as well as his misinterpretation of her suspicions of PW. Also notes the Gojoe posts PW made during the confirmation phase.
In her post-by-post breakdown of moody, she notes that she didn't understand moody's post responding to the day vig comment, but skipped over it due to PW's and somitomi's response following. Also notes moody's non-lynchable read of PW. Leaning scum on Madge, due to moody's questionable PW read.
In this post, bessie notes that PW posted after a break, sarcastically(?) asking if it was because of Madge. Offers advice to PW over how to go about doing reads lists, and asks him to answer her questions. Tells him not to make up excuses, and reminds him that townies never lie. No lynching the mod. Discusses with BF why she found moody's "no crytpography" post suspicious and how it links to PW.
In response to LG, about his comment surrounding the day chat question directed at the mods, and the related timings, says she's thinking about the subject. Has other reasons to suspect somitomi above PW, so hence why she is voting that way. Asks PW to explain why he thought scum would be more likely to joke. Continues her sleepgate discussion with somitomi, explaining it step-by-step, and speculates that PW was waiting to talk in scum chat. Notes confirmation by PW that he lied about his late start in the game. Notes somitomi asking the same question as LG as to why she's voting for him, not PW.
Asks PW to clarify what he meant about No Lynch/hammer. Thinks she might accept her own advice directed at PW, to create a reads list, owing to her lack of interactions with most players. Cotinues sleepgate argument with somitomi. Explains why she is grilling PW about his joke-confirmations comment (lateness in game), because he appears to be trying to mimic a townie.
Starts aruging with Madge about sleepgate, explaining her theory about PW to her. Also explains that she's suspicious of PW for copying her meta (also explains this to Vicarin). Thinks somitomi and LG might be fishing to see whether she'd switch her vote to PW. Believes PW is newbie scum.
Loves PW and asks him not to take things personally.
Asks Madge if she understands her sleepgate point on PW. Doesn't think PW's "slip" was a scum slip (though could still come from scum).
Gets frustrated at Madge for not understanding her point around PW and sleepgate.
Points out that neither Madge nor PW has to play like her.
Votes Madge for keeping covering for PW, and says she'll probably tunnel PW next.
Madge is a good person and would cover for PW, regardless of alignment, but she thinks they are a scum team.

Posts by PW relating to bessie:
Jokes that he, bessie and BoomFrog are day vigilantes.
In his early reads list, labels bessie as town and waits to see who she tunnels first.
In his BF post-by-post reread, notes that bessie "came to his aid".
Replies to bessie over his newbie/town/not leaders comment.
Surprised that bessie isn't voting for him. Explains timings around sleepgate. Explains his comments on bessie and me about the good play in Secret Santa, and her tunnelling.
Explains why he thinks scum are more likely to joke confirm, and wonders why bessie is grilling him on this, instead of other stuff.
Apologises for copying bessie, and explains why he does it.
Doesn't like how Madge would vote for bessie. Has bessie as town, and promises a read of her later.
I'm fairly confident that bessie is not a scum-buddy of Peaceful Whale. There's simply too much aggression and tunnelling coming from her directed his way (why bring up sleepgate, for example?). It could be an extreme attempt at distancing, but it feels like it goes too far. My biggest concern here is that she never voted for Peaceful Whale all day, despite him being one of her scummiest reads throughout the day (at first she thought somitomi was more likely to be scum, and later Madge), although I tentatively accept her previous explanations for this (Ninja'ed by many people - I see that LaserGuy asked a question about this). I could be wrong about my read here, but I don't think I am.

Moody/Madge:
Spoiler:
Posts by moody referencing PW:
In his partial reads, he has PW as twitchy, but has other content, so isn't going to vote for him.
Backs down on the twitchy part, but stands by the "other content" part of the read and gives a post-by-post breakdown of PW's posts, with one or two brief comments.

Posts by Madge referencing PW:
Confused by why we care about how much PW sleeps/doing other stuff. Doesn't think "waiting for scum-buddies to come online" holds water. Brings up how much he interacted with SDK when being mentored. Thinks he'd be too enthusiastic to hold back and wait to speak with buddies.
Thinks the argument against PW is stupid. Finding him suspicious for not posting for 16 hours is stupid. Also asks bessie whether she's accusing PW of copying her old games. Encourages PW to not let bullies tell him how to play.
Likes PW's style.
In response to bessie, she says that she doesn't think PW would have waited 16 hours for somitomi to post in scum chat, if they were scum mates, based on past behaviour. Thinks that PW would not have changed his ways since, but does acknowledge that PW + somitomi could be a scum team.
Explains to PW that her elaborate schedule explanation is a sarcastic response to sleepgate.

Posts by PW referencing moody/Madge:
In his reads list, said he forgot moody was here, and put him as probably town (possibly lurking scum).
Notes moody joke confirmed.
Welcome Madge, and wonders what happened to moody.
Wants to reread Madge/moody, because he hasn't seen their scumminess.Does a reread of Madge/Moody in which he asks the mods if moody is okay. He labels moody as slight scum lean, to do with his woof opinions. Labels Madge as enthusiastic townie, although raises several points of potential scumminess about her along the way, and little to nothing explaining why he thinks she's town (schedule means she can't lurk, and doesn't think scum would be bubbly - note how bubbly PW appears to be).
There's very little interaction between PW and either moody or Madge. Madge was very defensive about PW, and didn't understand the whole sleepgate affair. I feel like it's entirely possible she'd have done that regardless of PW's alignment in relation to her though. I know I said I liked moody's read of PW before, but in hindsight, I really am not so sure of it. Is does come across as pretty half-hearted and an attempt to "interact" with a team-mate, now that I know that he was talking about a scum player. Also noteworthy is PW's town reads of moody (early) and Madge (later), despite having almost nothing to point out as townie about Madge's play (enthusiasm basically being it), and some scummy things.

Overall, I think there's a pretty good chance that Madge is one of PW's scum-buddies, both for the lack of interaction from either direction and PW's final read of Madge.

Conclusion: Without having read through the rest of the interactions between PW and other players, and given my earlier stated theories about the PW wagon and LaserGuy, I think there's a very good chance that the remaining two scum are cemper and Madge. This is without even taking into account that I had them as my two scummiest reads at the end of D1 as well. Tomorrow, I will look at everybody else's interactions.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby somitomi » Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:44 am UTC

I read back to see intractions between PW and people not on his wagon and jimbob's consistent town read on PW pinged me too. Otherwise I noted that Cemper didn't give an unambiguous verdict either despite commenting somewhat harshly on Peaceful Whale's game. Some of both Madge's and PW's posts give me the feel of some "camaraderie" between them, although that might be due to their similar playstyle. LaserGuy and bessie were both suspicious of him, although LaserGuy dropped it saying Peaceful Whale couldn't fake this.
I tried skimming other interactions to outline possible scum teams, but didn't get too far with it.
jimbob-LaserGuy plausible, LaserGuy including jimbob on his lynchables could be distancing (IIRC there was no serious threat of a jimbob lynch)
jimbob-cemper not that likely
cemper-LaserGuy unlikely based on LaserGuy's consistent scum read on cemper
jimbob-Madge plausible
cemper-Madge plausible (cemper didn't comment much on Madge and was mildly suspicious of moody, Madge put cemper on the nice list)
LaserGuy-Madge unlikely

Oh, ninja'd by jimbob doing the same much more thoroughly.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:37 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:My scum assessment of cemper was mostly from his reaction to the woofs, but Hari's post made me rethink all of those opinions, and flicky quoted cemper's main post about me here and it was actually really reasonable.
So then why do you think he's scum now?
PoE. It's either him or JimBob or Bessie, and I'm town lean on JimBob except for him being way too confident that LaserGuy is town. Bessie seems slightly scummy except for how hard she attacked PW. Did she distance hard in Santa?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:27 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
Madge wrote:Bessie's quote on BF is very, very interesting to me. His logic almost seems like he should conclude BF is scum
Second "BF" should be "PW", right?


Yes, sorry!
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:39 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Not as easily as ordered lists do, no. If five or six people all have the same player at the top of their list, it's much more likely that player would be protected by a doctor/watcher, for example, and mafia might try to select someone else to avoid that outcome.
Understood, thank you. I think this would only be practical if most players subscribed to it.
Because it looked like a slip and was accompanied by a statement that I felt was not true. In Fridge mafia that I referenced (in my EBWOP), PW was scum but was overwhelmingly read as Town until the very end of the game. He basically only lost because everyone else ended up confirmed.
But why did you feel it was different than Halloween?

PW's regard toward Sabrar looks the most partnery to me, but I'm not putting much weight toward it. I think his posts are too all over the place to get reliable partner tells from them. Many times, he put a person as a scum read and a town read in the same post...(and I'm beginning to think his play style is more deliberate than we give him credit for). I think other players' thoughts and actions toward PW are more informative. I agree with the points LaserGuy made against Bessie. Given PW's lynch history and unpredictability, I think Mafia would be inclined to distance themselves from him; especially if they could do this without actually pushing for his lynch.

On the opposite end of this, I think both Madge and Moody aligned themselves too closely with him to likely be his partner. Madge hard defended PW in the midst of him being bombessied and continued to defend and buddy through to the end of the day. And Moody did not falter at all here when called out by Sabrar. That does not feel like the reaction of a partner. Mafia in general are inclined to disassociate themselves with each other, and I think this to be even more so in PW's case, who again is very lynchable, and very easy to claim suspicions on without anyone thinking it unnatural.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:46 am UTC

Madge absolutely does not need to claim, however. But only IF we reach a day before mylolylo (which I'll refer to as m-1. Right now we are m-2); or, of course, if she is going to be lynched. This is to give us leeway in a counterclaim scenario, with the ability to lynch correctly the next day if we lynch wrong between ccs.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:50 am UTC

You mean she does need to claim, right?

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Hari Seldon
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:52 am UTC

YES.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:52 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Did she distance hard in Santa?
There was never any need. jimbob was read townie by all plus N1 kill seemed to clear him up.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:53 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:YES.
Then I agree with that evaluation 100%.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:37 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I don't understand why he apologised to cemper in this post, given that I can't see anything in cemper's posts from around that time that warranted this apology.
You make post-by-post analysis and couldn't find it??? I mean it's not super-obvious but it should have occured to you nonetheless.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:44 am UTC

jimbob's 'case' on cemper is extremely thin, describing it as 'fair chance but not exactly hard and fast' is disingenuous.
Him backtracking on moody/Madge also looks suspicious.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:28 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:TBH, the thing that makes me hesitate the most on Madge is the NK.
This is what makes you hesitate the most? Really? Not the wagonomics?
Are you calling me out for making a meta read of Madge? :P And no I’m not discounting anything, what I mentioned was what was foremost in my mind when I made that post.

Madge wrote:[alternatively: oh, wow, yeah, if they're cop they have to go]

I don't want you all thinking I'd oppose killing the newbie tooth and nail. I'd object once and then probably relent, if it was BF. If it was someone I didn't know as well then I might try and push my weight..
That’s exactly what I was saying in my post. You would probably prefer not to kill a newbie (especially since this is supposed to be a newbie game), unless you suspect cop (or maybe watcher or doctor). So it would have to be a fairly clear breadcrumb, or your partner might need to persuade you, so someone really smart or really charismatic? I think BoomFrog fits that description (and there may be another).

BoomFrog wrote:That's a reasonable point, although I disagree with how strong it is. I was thinking the exact same things as PW asked, but I knew the mods would share what was appropriate and asking for more detail wasn't useful. I'd bet you were concerned as well.
I am concerned. I’m always concerned when someone disappears mid-game, or when someone that’s fairly involved with the forum disappears completely (right now I’m a little concerned about mpolo because it is unlike him to sit out so many games in a row). But I get the feeling Peaceful Whale may have had a connection with moody in this game.

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: you misinterpreted the question (and I must agree with BoomFrog, this feels deliberate) and then you ignored it completely. Why?
How did I ignore it? I answered the question. At the time I made that post, my first on D2, my list was unchanged from the list I linked, which I had revised an hour before D1 deadline. Why is BoomFrog so insistent that it’s not a valid list? Is it because he’s on the bottom with Madge?

LaserGuy wrote:You didn't do any detailed confirmation post analysis in Secret Santa and I doubt PW was paying close enough attention to that game to note your one throwaway reference to this. Also, you were mafia that game. Why do you think scum!PW would be copying scum!bessie rather than Town!bessie?
Because analyzing confirmation posts is something I do, not something I do as scum. Peaceful Whale admitted he was copying people he found townie here.
Peaceful Whale wrote:I sometimes find a reads list and copy it, but rearrange what I don’t agree with to fit my needs. I’ve kinda done the same thing here, but more extreme. I’ve been copying people like Bessie, she has already pointed out where. I’m sorry Bessie that your happened to be right about me. : cry : I don’t trust myself to be towny, so I try and follow people who I believe are town (pr at least doing a better job than I am).


LaserGuy wrote: Talk to me about this. You spent most of D1 implicitly reading PW as scum and using that read to motivate your scumreads on Madge/somitomi. Why were you so busy hunting for his buddies? If you had such a strong scumread on PW, why didn't you ever vote for him?
My evaluation was that if Peaceful Whale was scum, he would be fairly obvious, so if there is another fairly strong candidate, it would make sense to leave the obvious candidate for later. Also, I don’t think that Peaceful Whale would be as dangerous to leave alive as say, scum!Madge.

Also, in regards to my non vote on Peaceful Whale, I think you need to take a closer look at the end of D1. These were the votals when I left for work:
Current Votals

flicky1991 - 4 (cemper93, LaserGuy, Madge, Vicarin)
Peaceful Whale - 1 (flicky1991)
LaserGuy - 1 (Hari Seldon)
Madge - 2 (Sabrar, bessie)
cemper93 - 2 (jimbobmacdoodle, BoomFrog)

Not voting: Peaceful Whale, somitomi,

I was already gone when the Peaceful Whale wagon gained momentum. And I made it clear I would probably not be around to change my vote at deadline.

As for me trying to help him out a little with some occasional advice in thread, he is still a newbie and I would have given advice regardless of my or his alignment.

Hmm, haven’t we had this discussion before?
Spoiler:
http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4198158#p4198158
bessie wrote:@DethStalker

We as a group are very welcoming to new players. Everyone here is willing to help you. If you have a general Mafia gameplay question, or a question as to the forum rules, you may ask us in this thread, and someone will answer it truthfully.

If you have a specific question about this game or your role, please send a private message with your question to mpolo.

Although we all want to help you and hope you enjoy the game, your newbie status does not automatically give you immunity to the lynch. I strongly recommend you do the following.

1. Do not roleplay. It is just for fun and not required.
2. Do not try to post in the style of Shakespeare, or use Shakespeare quotes.
3. Answer questions directed at you.

If you are confused and don’t know where to begin, you may start by answering the question I asked you, which you quoted and to which you responded, but did not answer. Then you should read through the thread and answer the questions others have asked you.


http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4201900#p4201900
bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:From this read, I think bessie is almost certainly scum, and most likely aligned with DethStalker.
Why? Because I tried to help him out? I wasn’t the only one. And this isn’t the only game I have tried to help out a newbie that didn’t understand what they signed up for. Perhaps you need to reread Diablo (other examples can be provided if needed, Wheel of Time 1, Matrix 6 Newbie Redux, etc).


http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4203157#p4203157
bessie wrote:You accuse me of spending a surprising amount of time focused on subjects that are not really advancing the interests of town, and then you post the following?
LaserGuy wrote:Her posts to and about DethStalker read very much like a frustrated teammate trying to help a useless, intractable team member. She spends more time talking to and about him than just about anyone else. A quick summary of her interactions with him:
-Welcome post, notes his postcount is still 1 and instructs him how to remove posting restrictions. DethStalker hadn't put in a confirmation post yet, so bessie had to go to a different thread to check his postcount to get this information. This is apparently a higher-priority task than commenting on SDK "outing" her as town.
-Expresses further concerns that he isn't set up properly in the forums, DethStalker a liability.
-Confused by his opening posts. "[D]one with you."
-A few hours later prods him to reply to jimbob.
-Tells him not to roleplay and to answer questions
-DethStalker newbie scum. Fine with lynching him.
-Final parting words to him. Missed this one earlier. MacBeth gives this speech in response to hearing about the suicide of his wife and co-conspirator. Another interesting choice.

Note: plytho is correct here. I don’t want to get in to this too much but I really think I need to say something because you are the one focusing on subjects that are not really advancing the interests of town at this point. Trying to help out newbies is entirely within my meta, and if I am alive N2 I will dig up links to old games and to the Gojoe thread to illustrate this point and post them on D3. If I have several extra hours I can probably dig up stuff in the discussion thread where we as a group talk about how we can draw new players. And I felt somewhat responsible this one, not because we were on a scum team together, but because I’m the one who asked mpolo in the Gojoe thread if this game was going to be newbie friendly, and because of my request he added newbie friendly to the sign up sheet. IIRC, I did the same thing after WoT2 with Diablo, posted in Gojoe inviting newbies to join us. And we got two spectacular new players in that game (and a third player that put us in a situation similar to what DethStalker did). I meant this to be quick but already spent too much time on this so whatever, done, OK you think I’m scummy for it.

Note on alignments in Shakespeare: bessie (town), Dethstalker (mafia 1), LaserGuy (mafia 2).

BoomFrog wrote: Bessie seems slightly scummy except for how hard she attacked PW. Did she distance hard in Santa?
Why ask Sabrar? Why not look it up yourself. You were following the game for at least a while, and closely enough to make a read. Or did you want Sabrar to reread Secret Santa for some reason?

Hari Seldon wrote:I agree with the points LaserGuy made against Bessie. Given PW's lynch history and unpredictability, I think Mafia would be inclined to distance themselves from him; especially if they could do this without actually pushing for his lynch.
Hari Seldon, given Peaceful Whale’s content in this game, do you think it's possible that mafia might consider bussing him, especially to protect a teammate that might have a better chance of making it to endgame?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:32 am UTC

bessie wrote:Why is BoomFrog so insistent that it’s not a valid list? Is it because he’s on the bottom with Madge?
No, it's because we have new information since that time so you should update your reads or at least mention that they are unchanged. You can't just link to an old list and call it a day.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:48 am UTC

Ok I know that everyone else had been playing for almost eight hours by the time I posted, but I hadn’t, I was at work. I just got home, made my read through, and was replying to the day’s content as I read. I don’t have the super computer brain like you, I can’t instantaneously process and revise, I need to think about things a while. So my scum-town list was unchanged from what was my previous post (it’s not like that list was done four days earlier). And me replying to BoomFrog the way I did was my bessie-passive-aggressive-sarcastic way of telling him that he was still on the bottom of my list. I’m surprised you didn’t get that. [/sarcasm]

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:50 am UTC

I understand it, it's still not helpful. And you could have come back to it later after you had the time to analyze.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:04 am UTC

I'm still analyzing.

Previous list.
bessie wrote:town
bessie
somitomi
Vicarin
Sabrar
Hari Seldon
flicky1991
jimbobmacdoodle
cemper93
LaserGuy
BoomFrog
Peaceful Whale
Madge
scum


Current list. Work in progress, ordered but I’m not firm within groupings, yet.

town
vicarin
bessie
somitomi

Sabrar
flicky1991
Hari Seldon

jimbobmacdoodle
cemper93
LaserGuy

BoomFrog
Madge
Peaceful Whale

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:33 am UTC

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:You didn't do any detailed confirmation post analysis in Secret Santa and I doubt PW was paying close enough attention to that game to note your one throwaway reference to this. Also, you were mafia that game. Why do you think scum!PW would be copying scum!bessie rather than Town!bessie?


Because analyzing confirmation posts is something I do, not something I do as scum. Peaceful Whale admitted he was copying people he found townie here.


I don't think Peaceful Whale was around in any game where you've actually did this as Town, and in Secret Santa it was barely mentioned. Yes, he admitted to copying people that he found townie... that's why I find this so interesting. There isn't really a good reason for him to have chosen this particular aspect of your meta as something to copy, rather than something more obviously townie-looking, like say, your tunneling or general posting style. I think it's more likely that rather than him copying you from Secret Santa, a well meaning scumbuddy was trying to give him advice in scumchat, and said something to the effect of:
Don't say anything stupid in your confirmation post. As Town, I've sometimes caught mafia because they tried to put something silly in their confirmation that turned out to be a slip.

which PW misconstrued as "townies should analyze confirmation posts for scumslips." I think PW admitting to copying you as actually covering for his buddy.

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote: Talk to me about this. You spent most of D1 implicitly reading PW as scum and using that read to motivate your scumreads on Madge/somitomi. Why were you so busy hunting for his buddies? If you had such a strong scumread on PW, why didn't you ever vote for him?


My evaluation was that if Peaceful Whale was scum, he would be fairly obvious, so if there is another fairly strong candidate, it would make sense to leave the obvious candidate for later. Also, I don’t think that Peaceful Whale would be as dangerous to leave alive as say, scum!Madge.

I was already gone when the Peaceful Whale wagon gained momentum. And I made it clear I would probably not be around to change my vote at deadline.


I wasn't asking about end of day. I was asking about all of D1. Also... why would you think that it would be obvious if he were scum? In his only previous game as mafia he was consistently townread throughout the entire game, whereas he has been mislynched or at least lynchbait every game where he's been Town.

As for me trying to help him out a little with some occasional advice in thread, he is still a newbie and I would have given advice regardless of my or his alignment.

Hmm, haven’t we had this discussion before?


This is a very strange comment. I never mentioned you giving him advice one way or the other. I'm scumreading you because you were making an associative scumread on somitomi/Madge that only makes sense if you are also scumreading PW. If PW had been Town and somitomi/Madge had been defending him over sleepgate, there wouldn't be any particular reason this would imply they were mafia, even if they were misunderstanding your argument. PW was already scum in your mind when you were discussing this with somi/Madge.

bessie wrote:Hari Seldon, given Peaceful Whale’s content in this game, do you think it's possible that mafia might consider bussing him, especially to protect a teammate that might have a better chance of making it to endgame?


Which players in this game do you think would be likely to hard bus a relatively newbie buddy for townie credit an hour before deadline? The deadline was at 2:00PM Eastern, btw, so PW may well have been in school for the lynch and whomever you are accusing of this may not have even been able to consult with him.

What do you think of my comments regarding moody?

More generally, why haven't you ever ask me questions about my reads this game? I was surprised that you didn't find it suspicious/unusual/noteworthy that I've mostly been posting player alignment reads without commentary.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:02 am UTC

bessie wrote:Hari Seldon, given Peaceful Whale’s content in this game, do you think it's possible that mafia might consider bussing him, especially to protect a teammate that might have a better chance of making it to endgame?
Yes, I understand what you're getting at. But why do so if there is a Town alternative? Why would Boom actively push for a PW lynch if Flicky was sitting at L-1 and Madge only had two votes. If anything, he could have just not posted at all. But he was actively against lynching Flicky.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:15 am UTC

Request mod-prod on cemper.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:17 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:
bessie wrote:Why would Boom actively push for a PW lynch if Flicky was sitting at L-1 and Madge only had two votes.

For the town-credit later. He noted that he didn't think it would succeed.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:18 am UTC

Screwed up the quote.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:21 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Which players in this game do you think would be likely to hard bus a relatively newbie buddy for townie credit an hour before deadline?
The list is extremely short and it contains BoomFrog.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:14 am UTC

I think this is Crossover!LaserGuy


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