Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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Hari Seldon
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:30 am UTC

Bessie wrote:
Hari wrote:Yes, I understand what you're getting at. But why do so if there is a Town alternative? Why would Boom actively push for a PW lynch if Flicky was sitting at L-1 and Madge only had two votes. If anything, he could have just not posted at all. But he was actively against lynching Flicky.

Perhaps he was afraid the lynch wagon would swing back to Madge.
Again, why not lynch Flicky?
Cemper wrote:To me, that makes it appear very likely that exactly one out of [Madge, flicky] is scum.
Why exactly one? I agree that it is unlikely that he would have both partners there, but why not neither?
Sabrar wrote:Thanks somitomi for reminding me that I wanted to reply to this.
Hari Seldon wrote:And Moody did not falter at all here when called out by Sabrar.
moody didn't understand what my issue was.

I think he did. He said that he may have been wrong about the twitchy bit, but stood by his other content—the part you had issue with. He was doubling down on the not lynch read. I understand the points Somi and Jim made about yomi, but I do not feel that to be the case here. I don't think Moody would be confident enough to defend his partner with a post by post that early in the game. Moody tends to react very strongly when being caught red handed (e.g when I mentioned the Framer here and his end of D1 posts in Crossover), but his reaction to your prodding did not indicate any sign of duress or guilt.
Sabrar wrote:@Hari Seldon: do you still stand by your secret town-read on bessie? Will you reveal what it is if we mislynch today?
She has still not shown any indication of it. Since I only have one data point, however, I don't think it is much good for anything other than an early game impression. If I decide to vote for her or she is going to be lynched, I will reveal it just for the sake of having everything out on the table, but I don't think there's any value at this point.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:01 am UTC

I want to lynch LaserGuy. I think the remaining Scum is between JimBob and Bessie.

I think Laser's suspicion of a PW slip was coming from the point of view of Scum who was hypersensitive to their partner's wording. Laser, you mentioned that you unvoted PW shortly after you voiced your suspicion, but that was after I had made my inquiry into what Bessie and Somi thought. Your unvote came off to me as a direct result those responses, as you quoted and praised Somi's response in your subsequent post.

Also, looking back on it, why did you not voice the same opinion about Bessie's response? She had voiced the same opinion about PW's post and her response preceded Somi's. It is peculiar that you would assign positive value to Somi, because Scum Somi could have simply been mirroring Town Bessie's response.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Suzaku » Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:28 pm UTC

Current Votals:

bessie - 1 (LaserGuy)
Madge - 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)

Not voting: BoomFrog, Hari Seldon, Madge, Sabrar, bessie, cemper93, flicky1991, somitomi

With 10 alive hammer requires 6 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
No deadline has been set.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:15 pm UTC

Just going through some content before I get to providing some.

BoomFrog wrote:Because it seems really weird that you thought day chat meant scum can't chat at night.
It's weird that I thought words had meanings?

BoomFrog wrote:FMPOV this pool obviously contains both scum and if there is a PR in there we almost can't lose.
What does your POV tell you that mine doesn't? This isn't "obvious" at all, unless scum plays mafia on the level of elementary school children. Oh wait:
BoomFrog wrote:Replace "we almost can't lose." with "and if I'm right and everyone follows my plan, we can't lose."
Hmm.

bessie wrote:Shakespeare LaserGuy: Scum attacking me by trying to tie me to a newbie scum that I was trying to help out, see my post here (check spoiler).
Alright, thank you. This is certainly interesting.

Sabrar wrote:
cemper93 wrote:Accusing me of fitting your posts to a "preconceived narrative" doesn't exactly improve my opinion of you, if that is what you're after.
No, I'm pretty sure you won't change your opinion.

EBWOP
cemper93 wrote:At this point, can't you just admit that your strategy and reads are flawed and move on?
Nope. Never.
...

Sabrar wrote:Out of the 2 options you asked me it fit the actual answer the best. I was confident in you + Madge being scum, you moving to PW meant he was a bad choice as well. I didn't think we would get the votes anyway.
You deliberately voted a player that you thought was a bad choice?

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: I would like your opinion on cemper (putting aside the fact that he's not in any of the scum-teams you proposed).
You're OMGUSing me so hard that you don't even care to link me to a proposed scumbuddy? I don't know if I should be delighted or insulted.

@Sabrar: What are your most likely scum teams at this point?

flicky wrote:Right, but in the post that started the conversation, we were talking about jimbob and LaserGuy removing a large group that didn't contain them from the lynch pool. I'm not saying I don't see the logic of scum narrowing the lynch pool in general, but can you see why I find it hard to see jimbob and LG as suspicious for that particular point?
This is only true for a jimbob-LaserGuy-PW scumteam. Jimbob or LaserGuy could still be scummers with any of the players who didn't vote PW yesterday.

Sabrar wrote:Got one. What is your (detailed) read on bessie?
Sure, why not read bessie? Coming up after this post.

jimbob wrote:
cemper93 wrote:I also disagree that flicky is town for being on the PW bandwagon, mostly because he would have gotten lynched had the bandwagon not gotten off the ground (as stated above).
Yes, but why pick PW, as opposed to, say, Madge, or Hari, both of whom apparently had more chance of being lynched?
Sabrar was certainly looking for options:
Sabrar wrote:@jimbob: I would be willing to go for cemper to avoid the mislynch.
I don't agree that Madge or Hari had higher chances of getting lynched. There was a lot of pushback against the Madge lynch because of her PR claim, and Hari wasn't really on anybody's scum radar. On re-read, I agree though that the context in which flicky switched trains is inconsistent with my hypothesis:
flicky wrote:In fact...

Unvote: LaserGuy
Vote: Peaceful Whale

If Whale turns up scum then LaserGuy is town, though.
It would be a bad play for scum to give a free townie read to LaserGuy, unless LaserGuy is also scum, in which case my Sabrar read is way off. It's possible, though -- while re-reading the thread, I noticed that I had made this remark on D1 when attacking flicky:
cemper93 wrote:For future reference: flicky did not write down the reads that PeacefulWhale, LaserGuy or bessie made.
It would take me another re-read to look for signs of this scum team though, and I want to re-read bessie first.

jimbob wrote:I certainly see cemper's case on flicky/Sabrar/PW, and he could be right, but I also completely agree with the response that it is just using facts to fit a preconceived narrative. In particular, why is Sabrar picked out as someone who switching his vote on PW could be bussing scum, ahead of, say, BoomFrog?
I guess both Hari or BoomFrog could have done the same, given that they were the other players to have voted him last. BoomFrog could have conceivably done it, I don't see any particular reason he wouldn't do it, except that from what I recall, D1 interactions between him and flicky didn't exactly seem to suggest that they were scummates.

Hari Seldon is actually a more interesting case. He claims to have voted PW in the hope of forcing NL. Forcing NL seems like a terrible strategy to begin with, but besides, if what he says is true, then he may have not wanted to lynch PW at all and only gotten townie points for it a few days later.

@Hari: Why did you want to force NL? Are you aware of what a forced NL does to D2 discussion?

Sabrar wrote:That last post made me 95% sure that I want to hear Madge's (and BoomFrog's) claim ASAP.
So does scum.

Hari Seldon wrote:
cemper93 wrote:To me, that makes it appear very likely that exactly one out of [Madge, flicky] is scum.
Why exactly one? I agree that it is unlikely that he would have both partners there, but why not neither?
Because why give free townie points to two town players? For scum, there is just zero value in this. Scum doesn't want to give strong town reads of players because they have to fear that they will stand out as flip-flopping if they need to lynch them later.

Basically, PW saw that his buddy was getting lynched and decided to save him. PW decided to influence town by giving a town read on flicky, but then he realized that then he would be tied to flicky tomorrow if the lynch would happen anyway. Therefore, he decided to give a only half-strong town read for distancing, and in addition, to make it less obvious that he was giving a town read on flicky in particular, he decided to give another town read on a player who was actually town -- namely Madge.

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Hari Seldon
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:30 pm UTC

I disagree that it would have had a negative impact on D2 discussion. We still would have had end of day voting patterns to discuss. Even without a flip, I think how players behave closer to the deadline generally provides the most valuable information. We also would have had a Night flip and PR results.

For the record, I do think it is strange that I am being town read for my participation on the PW wagon, particularly by JimBob, as I was his strongest scum read going into the Night. In my heart, I did not actually think that PW was Scum. I didn't want to lynch him, and I didn't want to lynch Madge or Flicky either. My vote was just a split second decision between having to choose among the three, with the trace hope that we would indeed NL.

Cemper wrote:Because why give free townie points to two town players? For scum, there is just zero value in this. Scum doesn't want to give strong town reads of players because they have to fear that they will stand out as flip-flopping if they need to lynch them later.

Basically, PW saw that his buddy was getting lynched and decided to save him. PW decided to influence town by giving a town read on flicky, but then he realized that then he would be tied to flicky tomorrow if the lynch would happen anyway. Therefore, he decided to give a only half-strong town read for distancing, and in addition, to make it less obvious that he was giving a town read on flicky in particular, he decided to give another town read on a player who was actually town -- namely Madge.
I disagree with your premise. Scum want to also have town reads because Townies have town reads. It also can be a way to get content on the page. I also do not have the impression that he intended for his Flicky read to be a strong town read, even after your breakdown. It is strange, though, that PW did not vote at this time. I think that is a stronger point for your case than his post itself.

BTW, Cemper, this hasn't been made clear: do you now understand that Day chat implies Night chat rather than exclude it? And how did you think the Night Kill worked?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:32 pm UTC

I had here composed a somewhat extensive read of bessie, however, I realized I could just distill it down to these posts:

bessie wrote:
Peaceful Whale wrote:Well, it’s a better reads list than I gave. I believe too is town. Middle is unconfirmed, and bottom is scum. I am currently surprised to see Sabrar there, but maybe that will change as I read him.
Hmm, this is the second time you’ve said you might lean scum on Sabrar after a reread.
This seems pretty genuine. Call it another meta-read on bessie, but I don't think she'd fake this. I'm almost tempted to say I could stop reading here, but there's also that Bessie though Peaceful Whale suspicious based on the time-stamps of his messages, which seemed somewhat weird at the time. This looks much better in retrospect. She butted heads over this with somi a lot, but she's stubborn, so whatever. She also tried to get him lynched, which at the time actually improved my opinion of her by a lot. Commitment is good.

bessie wrote:
bessie wrote:Please explain where you got the idea that it is more likely for scum to joke confirm than town. How did you formulate this theory?
Peaceful Whale wrote:(Why am I being grilled on this?)

Your analysis of the confirmation posts was in an odd place, it was on P5, in your 20th game post, well after your first reads list. It would have been more natural in one of your early posts, and on the first day. Hmm, this may be complicated to explain, and it will be wine soaked, and additionally my ego may be gratuitously involved. But oh well what the heck I think that you are trying to act townie by using the play style of a townie player as a model.

I’ve accused a newbie of this before, and he was scum. I never did get confirmation that he was trying to act like a townie using a townie as a model though (so ego :P).
This doesn't seem like artifical distancing to me. It certainly doesn't feel that way coming from bessie.

Sabrar, if you were going for anything in particular, please point it out to me. If not, I'll treat bessie town for the rest of this game.


Unfortunately, I don't have the time to re-read LaserGuy-flicky this evening.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:36 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:The weekend will be my best chance to do a nice read-through and recall people's interactions with Whale.
Sorry I never got around to this. :oops:
cemper93 wrote:
flicky wrote:Right, but in the post that started the conversation, we were talking about jimbob and LaserGuy removing a large group that didn't contain them from the lynch pool. I'm not saying I don't see the logic of scum narrowing the lynch pool in general, but can you see why I find it hard to see jimbob and LG as suspicious for that particular point?
This is only true for a jimbob-LaserGuy-PW scumteam. Jimbob or LaserGuy could still be scummers with any of the players who didn't vote PW yesterday.
I'm a lot more satisfied with that than any of the responses Bessie actually gave when I pressed her. It really seems like she's trying to use jimbob and LaserGuy's elimination of the PW wagon from the lynch list as evidence of both being scum, when really it would make a lot more sense for a scumteam that was completely outside the wagon to encourage the idea that there might have been bussing going on.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:40 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:BTW, Cemper, this hasn't been made clear: do you now understand that Day chat implies Night chat rather than exclude it?
IIRC, back in the day, "day and night chat" was stated explicitly. Anyway, I get it now.

Hari Seldon wrote:And how did you think the Night Kill worked?
Vicarin was read town by like every player in the game. Furthermore, he was no obvious NK target. This is important in a game with a doctor and a watcher. Scum would have preferred to kill Somitomi because he's a tracker and a confirmed townie, certainly, but I don't think they had any other reasonable options.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:49 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:And how did you think the Night Kill worked?
Vicarin was read town by like every player in the game. Furthermore, he was no obvious NK target. This is important in a game with a doctor and a watcher. Scum would have preferred to kill Somitomi because he's a tracker and a confirmed townie, certainly, but I don't think they had any other reasonable options.
I think Hari meant "how would the night kill work, mechanically, if scum didn't have night chat".
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby somitomi » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:20 pm UTC

Moved to where it belongs. I apologise for the inconvenience
Last edited by somitomi on Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:10 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:25 pm UTC

Haven't read it but it should go into Gojoe, right?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:26 pm UTC

I mean at this point it's fair game but shouldn't matter anyway as you're confirmed Town.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:27 pm UTC

i occasionally toyed with the idea of making a slip like that, but nobody would have ever believed it to be genuine.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:33 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:You deliberately voted a player that you thought was a bad choice?
Yes. I would prefer not to say why.

cemper93 wrote:You're OMGUSing me so hard that you don't even care to link me to a proposed scumbuddy? I don't know if I should be delighted or insulted.
The fact that I don't announce everything in the thread doesn't mean I didn't have specific scum-teams in mind. I thought bessie was your buddy and that's why I asked you both to cross-read each other.

cemper93 wrote:@Sabrar: What are your most likely scum teams at this point?
Madge - BoomFrog > bessie + cemper
I've debated for like 5 minutes who to put in the underlined spot but in the end I decided that my reason to town-read the others was stronger than the townie-ping I got from you in this post, especially given all the other things I don't agree with.

cemper93 wrote:Because why give free townie points to two town players? For scum, there is just zero value in this.
I agree with Hari Seldon here, scum has to give townie points to someone and can use the opportunity to sheep.

cemper93 wrote:I'm almost tempted to say I could stop reading here,
And then you're surprised when I form strong opinions based on a single piece of content. Have I mentioned double standard? Yes I have.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby somitomi » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:34 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Haven't read it but it should go into Gojoe, right?

Dammit, dammit, dammit.

Yes, although it doesn't contain anything spoilery.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:51 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:Since I only have one data point,
You could reading WoT to see if you can get a second. It's not that long.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:31 pm UTC

Here's my comprehensive reads so far:

Town:

Vicarin: I think it's likely that Vicarin was killed for being a universal townread and we just got unlucky that he was also a cop. Scum probably reasoned that somitomi/Madge would be protected and didn't want to risk targeting them.

somitomi: Claimed PR.

BoomFrog: As I've said before, I feel that the woof gambit is much more likely to be coming from Town!BF than Scum!BF in this sort of game, especially given that PW turned scum, I think BF would have been very reluctant to go ahead with this (see my analysis here). His play here is actually pretty much identical to Dark Tower!BoomFrog. I don't really see the case on BoomFrog at all... yes, I accept that it is possible that leading the lynch on PW as scum is within BoomFrog's range, but I don't see any evidence that this is the case based on his play or behaviour thus far. The fact that this argument is being advanced by the two scummiest players in the game does not exactly incline me to lend it a lot of credence anyway.

Hari Seldon: I don't really feel I've played enough with him to really have a good sense of him. His tunneling on me is misguided, but on the whole my feeling is that it is probably more likely Town motivated than not. He's astutely picked up that I was trying to do something different this game, and read it as scummy, which is not unreasonable. It's interesting to me that players who I feel ought to know my meta better (especially bessie/Sabrar) didn't seem to pick up on this. I'm noting that he voted for PW in the hopes of no lynching. Hari had been quite consistent about his desire to no lynch, so I think this is genuine. My feeling is that it's more likely that scum would commit to a bus here if they were voting for a buddy, though I don't have a good enough sense of Hari's meta to be able to say one way or the other if he hard bus a buddy. Giving him the benefit of the doubt for now.

Madge: Although I had originally put Madge in my scumpool today, upon reread I don't really see a strong scum case for her. As I noted here, the type of post-by-post analysis done by moody on PW is something he tends to do as Town (bessie did find one counterexample, but it's from 2014... in more recent games he has only done this as Town). My inclination is to believe that Madge's D1 claim is probably coming from Town, though I'd prefer not to go into the specifics for hopefully obvious reasons. I don't really understand the case on D1!Madge at all. Retrospectively, I can see a case for Madge D2 based on the PW flip, but the push on her on D1 is baffling to me. I tend to agree with Hari Seldon here that scum is much more likely to be distancing from PW who tends to be fairly lynchbait rather than defending him in the manner that Madge was. The preponderance of evidence here is for Town.


Meh:

flicky: flicky was the first person to vote for PW on D1. flicky only had two scumreads D1... having one of these as a buddy could easily have trapped him into being forced to bus. He's also counterwagon to scum, which is a point in his favor. On content, I don't really like much of what he's posted, though I'm seeing that this isn't terribly different from Town!flicky in Fridge or bin Chicken. More likely to be Town that not, but if he turns up scum I won't be that surprised.

jimbob: My meta on jimbob says he's generally more active as scum and tends to lurk as Town, which is more or less consistent with this game. His analysis are well-reasoned and I can follow everything quite well even where I don't agree. Noting that jimbob was present at end of day and chose not to save PW when he had the opportunity, though doing so would have forced a NL which jimbob was vehemently opposed to for all of D1. In D1 I felt he was asking a lot of questions that I felt were more asking for the sake of asking than actually scumhunting, which I found suspicious, and likewise did not like him trying to transpose his disagreement about NL with me into a scum read, though I'll give him credit for backing down on it when I called him on it.

cemper: I had originally put cemper down in my scummy category, but on reread, I don't actually find much of his content that objectionable. He's sort of a jimbob-lite. He makes some good analysis that I don't necessarily agree with, but I can usually follow his thought processes, and seems to be genuinely trying to gamesolve. There's some interactions that lead me to believe he may be buddies with bessie... he generally feels too familiar with her meta and playstyle for someone who hasn't been in a long while, and I don't get that vibe from him about anybody else, and his early vote on bessie feels more like scum distancing than a serious push.

Scummy:

Sabrar: I had originally put Sabrar on my Town column at daystart for lynching PW, but Sabrar has been setting off so many scum pings for me this game that I've decided to move him back into the scum column. I've talked enough about his early D1 content so I won't belabor the points I've made about him not asking questions. I do think that his early D1 play was active lurking... lots of posts with minimal content. My impression is that Sabrar deliberately started to improve his content after BoomFrog and I called him out on it, though this isn't necessarily scum-indicative, I suppose. His case on me bothers me a lot, both because it's such obvious BS and because Sabrar never really attempted to follow through in any way. Normally when Town!Sabrar cases somebody, I pretty much expect them to death tunnel for the remainder of the game (see, e.g.: Sabrar vs. LaserGuy in Fridge mafia, Sabrar vs. jimbob in Shakespeare mafia). I would not expect Town!Sabrar to let me get away with not responding to this, for example.

Sabrar's D1 vote on Madge is completely unsupported. This post is actually interesting in the same way that I find a lot of bessie's commentary on PW interesting: Sabrar is reading PW as scum in this post, but actually votes for Madge.

Generally speaking, I am troubled by the lack of explicit reads by Sabrar and the lack of any explicit thought processes (e.g. I am Town here, and scum here; BoomFrog is Town here and scum here; jimbob is scum here and later not; Madge is Town here and scum here). It's not clear to me at all where these various evaluations are coming from. This is not consistent with how I expect Town!Sabrar to play. Pretty much the entirety of Sabrar's play this game feels like Crossover!Sabrar (also bin chicken!Sabrar).

The only reason I was really prepared to discount him today was due to the PW lynch. I had a hard time believing that Sabrar would bus a buddy unless flicky was also scum. Retrospectively, I am not so sure. Sabrar pushed hard against the flicky wagon based on the VT claim. At first I thought that this meant a Sabrar/flicky team, but I think there's a scenario where this doesn't have to be the case. Perhaps Sabrar was hoping to swing the lynch back to Madge, hoping to hit a PR without Madge being in a position to claim. As soon as BoomFrog proposed PW, Sabrar immediately gave up on swinging the lynch. He couldn't back down on his townread of flicky to avoid pushing PW, but reluctantly went for PW feeling that with 20 minutes left, feeling it was likely that it would either be No Lynch or BoomFrog would be forced to swing the lynch back to flicky.

Suspicious PW/Sabrar interactions:
Spoiler:
Peaceful Whale wrote:Sabrar I’m really surprised he has 2 votes, both from what I consider very good players. I’ll reread him, maybe he’ll appear more scummy. Sabrar however has a serious opening post, and following posts, so I’m pretty sure he’s town. I feel like if he was scum he’d joke.

Townread Sabrar.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Sabrar read coming up. He’s looking towny, and I feel most of the points against him is meta-wise. But I’ve never been good with judging meta...

Townread Sabrar.
Sabrar asked no questions about rules and stuff this game. However I feel like anyone pouncing on this is pouncing just because they can distract people... (LaserGuy)
I’d be inclined to agree with LaserGuy, but this game is pretty simple, and I didn’t have any questions about setup, (besides who: the scum, the cop, the doctor, the watcher, and the tracker are :P )
The way he’s reacting to LaserGuy to me seems like a really Sabrar way. I think scum Sabrar would try harder and not defend himself, as to me rushing to defend yourself is something scum do more of. I wouldn’t be surprised if LaserGuy and Sabrar is town va town. That’s what it seems like to me. The way he’s not jumping on boomfrog is to me towny, I’d think scum would have tried pushing for a boomfrog because it’s policy to lynch active lurkers.
Sabrar’s been butting heads, and I just thought of a LaserGuy+boomfrog+Cemper scum team. As they’re the people Sabrar has been butting heads with the most. I can imagine them trying to get him lynched. If they are, but as of now, it’s flicky and LaserGuy voting him...

Honestly I really want to place him in town, but as others have pointed out, he’s not our normal Sabrar, at least I feel like that. He’s defiantly town leaning, maybe that will change. He’s definitely on my “do not lynch right now” list

Chainsaw defense of Sabrar against both BoomFrog and me + strong townread


bessie:

I've already talked extensively about bessie here, here, and here, so I don't want to belabor the points here more than I already have.

To summarize: I think it's likely that bessie is buddies with Peaceful Whale. My feeling is that bessie knows her own meta well enough to know that it would look super suspicious if she was seen buddying, townreading, or otherwise defending PW, so she settled on a strategy of pushing and scumreading him, but always finding an excuse to keep her attention focused on another player. bessie finds PW scummy here (start of sleepgate), but in the next post transitions into a scumread of somitomi here, here, here, here where the primary basis of this read is that she is scumreading PW and somitomi is defending him and misunderstanding her argument. Note the reactions to this series of posts:
Spoiler:
somitomi wrote:The second I can see, but the first one is based on conjecture and I'm puzzled why you don't vote Peaceful Whale if you're so certain he's mafia.

LaserGuy wrote:Out of curiosity, any reason why you're voting somitomi instead of PW?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:You also are voting for somitomi, but from what you're saying, you sound like you have better reasons to be suspicious of Peaceful Whale than him, so why is your vote not on PW?

BoomFrog wrote:Bessie's play has been worrying. The point about PW timing being off was a valid point, however PW's explination is reasonable and this should be slight scummy points and moving on. I know she stubbornly prides herself in being stubborn, but the somitomi "misunderstanding" line of questioning has been a complete waste of time and I wonder if it's an intentional waste of time so Bessie didn't need to provide more substantial content.

Hell, there's this one too
Peaceful Whale wrote:Well, after browsing through this thread, I’m surprised Bessie hasn’t voted for me.

bessie then uses the same sort of logic to scumread Madge/moody here, here, here, and ultimately here. Lest there be no confusion I do not believe that either of these reads make any sense unless bessie is also convinced that PW is scum. bessie actually put forward a decent case against PW, better than her cases on somitomi and Madge, yet not only did not vote for him, but actively resisted doing so. This makes no sense, especially in a setup like this where PW could just as easily have claimed doctor or something and ended up conftown. Noting that her current scumlean on BoomFrog is based off of his association with Madge which is based on this same read of PW.

Moving on.

There's some weird interactions between bessie and PW:
Spoiler:
Peaceful Whale wrote:Less serious note:
Me, boomfrog, and Bessie. :P
Bessie most of all, just look into her cold eyes!

This is a bit weird, but might be nothing.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Jimbobmacdoodle, was really good scum, so not trusting him.

bessie town, duh... let’s see who she tunnels first.

This is a bit more troubling since this is at least an attempt at serious reads, yet jimbob's read references his previous scum game whereas bessie's does not, despite the fact that bessie was also scum in that game. PW is emphasizing bessie's town meta. This is a common newbie scum mistake. Interesting that in his retraction of this point here, he indicates that he was more serious about bessie and joking about jimbob.

Further references to Town bessie:
I’m sorry Bessie that your happened to be right about me. : cry : I don’t trust myself to be towny, so I try and follow people who I believe are town

I don’t like how she’d rather vote Bessie, but that’s her... I’ll look into Bessie later, but she’s in the town section.


PW does a confirmation post analysis here. This is something that bessie (and pretty much only bessie) has done in the past. bessie calls him out here and PW admits to copying her here (9 min later, FWIW). As I said earlier, what bothers me about this interaction is that I simply do not believe that PW would have picked up on this as being that something that townies do, because it isn't: It's something that bessie does, though it hasn't come up in awhile. bessie claims it is from Secret Santa here, but this doesn't make sense both because bessie didn't really do this type of analysis in Secret Santa, and because bessie was mafia that game so there is no reason for PW to be copying her scum meta, nor for bessie to think that was what PW was trying to do. I think it's much more likely that this information was fed to PW in scumchat rather than PW actively going out and digging up this specific piece of information. Likewise the reference to Smallville, which I doubt PW has ever read, but is a game that where both bessie and Madge were scum.


Suspicious Sabrar/bessie interactions:
Spoiler:
Sabrar wrote:TOWN
bessie
BoomFrog
Hari Seldon
LaserGuy
Vicarin
flicky1991
Jimbobmacdoodle
cemper93
somitomi
Peaceful Whale
moody7277
SCUM

Apparently Secret Santa did not affect Sabrar's meta read on bessie at all.

bessie wrote:Ninja'd by LaserGuy. Not sure on Sabrar. I wouldn't currently put him as a town lean, but I can't point to anything particular that pings me. I will think about it tonight and hopefully have more content from him when I do my reads list tomorrow. Because you know I don't do any true neutrals in my reads lists (except for things like inactivity due to RL issues).

When I asked bessie for a read on Sabrar, this was her reply. She never followed up. More generally, I find bessie's lack of interest in BoomFrog/LaserGuy/Sabrar interactions D1 disturbing. She says that she didn't feel like commenting because others had already commented, but not expressing an opinion at all here is scummy. Similar to BoomFrog/bessie vs. Sabrar in X-Men, where scum!LaserGuy was caught by BoomFrog for sitting on the sidelines and not weighing in on the main interaction in the thread, I feel that bessie did not want to get involved in an argument where she would be forced to either scumread Sabrar and potentially lynch him (I think there's a good chance Sabrar would have been lynched if BoomFrog/bessie/LaserGuy were all voting for him) or defend him (and risk him flipping scum anyway), so she chose to do neither.

What I'm noting most here is a lack of direct interaction between them. bessie talks to Sabrar, and Sabrar talks to bessie, but they are always talking about someone else. bessie never asks Sabrar about Sabrar, and Sabrar (almost) never asks bessie about bessie. Neither of them have ever produced a read of the other, or justified their respective townreads of each other.


I think scum is bessie/Sabrar/PW. I think bessie/cemper/PW, bessie/jimbob/PW, Sabrar/flicky/PW are also plausible scumteams. But I feel quite strongly that it is the former.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby wam » Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:00 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Haven't read it but it should go into Gojoe, right?

Dammit, dammit, dammit.

Yes, although it doesn't contain anything spoilery.


having read it I agree

If no one has read it and you want to you are allowed to edit that post
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:02 pm UTC

@LaserGuy: you're of course aware that you were ninja'd hard, right? :lol:

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:27 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Generally speaking, I am troubled by the lack of explicit reads by Sabrar and the lack of any explicit thought processes
...
It's not clear to me at all where these various evaluations are coming from
I think this is the only fair comment in your whole post about me. I have less time for the game than I had previously and than I'd like (though this is not a new development and if you're so hip about how I play you should have noticed it on your own by now). For better or worse I'm more relying on gut-reads based on some specific content and then rarely look back. However these reads are always contested by others who can't understand why I have such strong feelings (even though again they should know better) so I'm less inclined to reveal them.
To give you an example the reason I currently read you as Town comes from this specific point:
LaserGuy wrote:
I do not comprehend the logic here. I am asking because my feeling is that you did not actually have this intention coming into the game. My suspicion is that you closed yourself off because of the early pressure on you; and wanted to limit the information we'd have if you were flipped.

You are incorrect on all counts here.

This is such a nonchalant way of dismissing the accusations that I find it indicates a townie state-of-mind.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:06 pm UTC

Onwards with those reads.

Next up - LaserGuy (previously 5th scummiest, tentative leaning town):
Spoiler:
Votes PW for hypocrisy over jokes. Doesn't feel productive to go hunting for lots of questions to ask, if nothing interesting. Stating opinions without explanation is helping find scum. Refuses to explain further at that point. States Hari's stated reasoning for LG voting for cemper incorrect. Top 4 scum list is PW, somitomi, flicky, me, also willing to NL. Squints at possible PW slip, and points out him being incorrect about Fridge reads of him. PRs should claim <12 hours if leading lynch, or L-2. Unvotes PW for his coming clean post about copying meta, due to thinking scum!PW would not be self-aware enough. Likes somitomi's reaction, to the potential slip, but not flicky's comment about voting Madge if tie to prevent No Lynch. Asks flicky about Madge reading, and follows up on response. Thinks flicky doesn't have solid reads, isn't making an effort to develop them, and votes him.

Asks Sabrar about somitomi vote and flicky read. Interesting follow up here. Asks Sabrar why he thought flicky was scum. Least confident about Sabrar on Madge and somitomi wagons. Thinks scum likely to claim VT as outing PR is inferior outcome to avoiding the lynch. Thinks NL better than lynching randomly, if we don't lynch flicky. Thinks Sabrar is mafia.

Day 2: PW wagon looking very good. Analyses wagons. Madge is looking bad, as wagon on her was likely all town, and her place on other wagons also looked bad (two townie wagons, treating flicky as confirmed townie). Finds PW read of moody/Madge suspicious and votes Madge. Discusses with Hari over town list comments, and explains why slip was suspicious. Thinks likely scum picks are Madge, bessie, cemper, me, vanishingly small chance of flicky. Weird interactions between bessie and PW leads him to unvote Madge. moody defence of PW feels uncharacteristic, using incomplete evidence to justify. Asks bessie to explain some of her comments about PW, and why she didn't vote for him, discussing bessie and confirmation post analyses. Asks bessie to consider his comments on moody. Lots more follow up comments about her PW interactions.

Agrees that BoomFrog is capable of bussing a newbie at late notice, and without conferring, but doesn't think it works for BF to be scum with the "woof" gambit and a PW buddy. Votes bessie, without further explanation. Big reads post that for times sake I'm not going to analyse in depth. Has bessie and Sabrar as likely buddies with PW.
LaserGuy wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:It's helping me find scum.


How?


I'm gonna pass on answering this one for now. Ask me again later in the game if you're still curious or I haven't made it obvious by then.
Any update on this? Has this helped you identify scum? If so, who and why?
LaserGuy, to Sabrar wrote:On both the Madge and somitomi wagons, you are the person that I am least confident is Town.
Why is the Madge wagon relevant here? The somitomi wagon was effectively a confirmed town wagon, while Madge's wasn't.

There are one or two niggles in LaserGuy's content that I'm not particularly comfortable with. He called Sabrar out on not explaining his reads, yet has done the same on several occasions during the game. I'm not convinced by his reasoning for voting flicky D1. It feels like he's judging flicky for not playing the way he plays. I also disagree with his case on bessie. I don't think bessie would have bussed that hard unnecessarily (unless PW had explicitly told her to, which I doubt he did). I agree that she might have bussed later on, if PW started looking like a lynch target, but not as early as she did. That all being said, my gut is telling me LaserGuy is town, and I can't really justify why, beyond the fact that I'm not convinced scum!LaserGuy would have brought up PW's slip. I think some of it may be his overall tone, and he does seem to be sincerely trying to find scum, at least recently (even if I do disagree with his conclusions on bessie). Leaning town here, but if the team is in the non-PW voters, I'd have to say that he is a plausible buddy for Madge (but I need to go and look at interactions to be confident about this).

Sabrar (3rd towniest previously):
Spoiler:
No Lynch has merits, but won't move the game forward sufficiently. Unvotes Madge following soft claim, but hasn't made up his mind, and then shortly afterwards votes Madge again, for refusing to claim at that point. Asks BF about his Madge thoughts. Thinks somitomi or bessie are scum on the Madge wagon. Asks HS about LG motivations behind PR plans. Votes somitomi. Unvotes following claim, and asks BF about whether he might change his mind about Madge if flicky is town. No solid read on flicky. Historically, only scum call him active lurking. Opposed to flicky lynch, due to townie vibes, and thinks scum!flicky would have counter-claimed Tracker. Votes Madge again. Starts getting annoyed at people for not realising the caught scum strategy here, and states that flicky is a mislynch. Discussions with various people on this topic. Offers to switch to cemper with me. Agrees with BF's explained likely scum strategy. Okay with Madge or cemper lynch. Challenges BF to update his read on Madge. At this point, Sabrar ignores BoomFrog's suggestion that PW is a viable lynch. Eventually offers to compromise, but still is reluctant to do so, although does in the end, whilst expressing doubts.

D2: Meta-read - Madge wouldn't kill newbie unless BF persuades her or breadcrumb found. Brings up BF's defence of Madge again. Thinks I am scum. Asks me to provide percentages on certainty of my reads. My reads on PW stood out to him, for being townie, despite scummy content. Finds my refusal to vote PW posturing. Asks bessie to provide team-mate for scum!BF. Surprised bessie isn't hesitating due to wagonomics. Asks BF about scum!LG. Defends LG. Doesn't understand what changed about BF read on cemper. Thinks Madge needs to claim. My case on cemper is extremely thin, and me backtracking on moody/Madge is suspicious. States that bessie should update her read list following new information. Thinks BF might have bussed PW for later town credit, thinking it wouldn't succeed. Thinks cemper's argument is wrong way around, saying he's just trying to fit a preconceived narrative. Challenges cemper's read on flicky/PW link. Wants bessie's opinion on cemper. Thinks BF decided to woof before receiving role-PM, and wouldn't have changed his decision. Has LaserGuy/cemper as likeliest team, Madge/BoomFrog next. Asks Hari about town-read on bessie. Wants to hear Madge's and BoomFrog's claim ASAP. Reverses team order, after getting a town ping on cemper. Explains change in play style, due to less time.
Looking at this, which was before Sabrar went so super-aggressive on those still attacking flicky:
Sabrar wrote:I'm opposed to a flicky-lynch. Not only do I get townie-vibes from him, as scum he could have cc-d Tracker as a last resort.
This is such bad logic, I really don't like it, because as has been discussed at length, scum claiming PR is not a great move at all. Falsely counter-claiming PR guarantees their lynch either that day or the next, whereas, as happened in the end, claiming VT can lead to not being lynched at all. From some players, I could buy it, but not from Sabrar, who prides himself on having great strategies. So, is town!Sabrar or scum!Sabrar likely to make a mistake on this, or is this deliberately scum!Sabrar trying to mislead? Or even town!Sabrar trying to mislead scum? Sabrar is pretty stubborn, so I suppose it's possible that he could have decided on a different strategy to what some people would do and thought that this is the best way. He could do this as either scum or town trying to think what scum would do though.

I find it quite interesting that Sabrar initially ignores BoomFrog's suggestion to compromise to PW, instead accusing him of defending Madge, which sounds like a deflection to me. Eventually, an hour later, he offers to compromise to PW, although he still fights against it as being unviable. Even after it looks like the PW wagon is viable, following his and Hari's votes, he fights against it (see also his "be prepared to break up any ties" comment to BF when he voted.

I also don't like his inconsistency on when people should and should not update their reads. In one post, he's upset with bessie for not updating her reads following the new information, but soon thereafter, he's upset with me for doing exactly that, claiming that new evidence on PW was not relevant.

@Sabrar - why do you read cemper as scum?

Overall, there's a lot of small things that trouble me about Sabrar this game, ranging from early play (felt a bit like Crossover), to the reluctance to vote PW, before later giving in (whilst still trying to fight it), to inconsistencies in calling people out on things, and then calling other people out for the opposite, right up to reads that are lacking any explanation for the most part. Whilst I get that he might have less time than he has done in the past, that doesn't excuse not giving explanations for things, especially as he's still the most frequent poster in the game (note: not actually checked this). His vote for PW does go a little way to mitigating all of this, but I agree with what others have said that if flicky is scum, I'd be willing to bet that Sabrar is his buddy. I also stand by my earlier assessment that there's a chance of Sabrar being scum buddies with PW even without flicky being scum, though it's less clear-cut as to why scum!Sabrar would defend town!flicky so hard in that case. Possibly because he was convinced flicky would be lynched and so wanted town cred for defending him? I don't think that he and Madge are buddies, although I haven't really looked into it. Anyway, solid scum read here.

And that's 2 hours gone, to do two reads. I'm out all evening tomorrow evening, but I should have some time on Wednesday to do at least flicky. Not sure if I'll get to Hari, BoomFrog or bessie, but my earlier PW-link-read suggests that none of them are likely buddies of him, and I've not seen anything particularly objectionable from any of them so far.

Tentative ordered list:
Town
somitomi
BoomFrog
bessie
Hari Seldon
cemper
LaserGuy
flicky
Sabrar
Madge
Scum

Not looked at teams outside the PW link yet, but preliminary thoughts are Madge + LaserGuy or Sabrar + ??? maybe flicky or LaserGuy? I might look at these teams instead of reads on people aside from flicky.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:15 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:This is such bad logic, I really don't like it, because as has been discussed at length, scum claiming PR is not a great move at all. Falsely counter-claiming PR guarantees their lynch either that day or the next, whereas, as happened in the end, claiming VT can lead to not being lynched at all.
As has been discussed at length and constantly ignored, COMMITTING YOURSELF TO A VT CLAIM HALF A DAY BEFORE DEADLINE is not a good tactic.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I also don't like his inconsistency on when people should and should not update their reads. In one post, he's upset with bessie for not updating her reads following the new information, but soon thereafter, he's upset with me for doing exactly that, claiming that new evidence on PW was not relevant.
You're hilarious. If the new info is not relevant, obviously it should not affect the read. These are completely different circumstances.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar - why do you read cemper as scum?
PoE. Also they are using meta arguments against me with no right to do so, unless they read more than the last 3 games I played in.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:47 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:As has been discussed at length and constantly ignored, COMMITTING YOURSELF TO A VT CLAIM HALF A DAY BEFORE DEADLINE is not a good tactic.
Remind me, who was lynched again?

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar - why do you read cemper as scum?
PoE. Also they are using meta arguments against me with no right to do so, unless they read more than the last 3 games I played in.
How, if at all, does the "preconceived narrative" point you raised earlier affect your read here?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:49 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@LaserGuy: you're of course aware that you were ninja'd hard, right? :lol:


Of course. I preview edited and did not see anything that required immediate correction to my posting. I will try to respond to comments directed at me in due course, but I've spent way too much time today on mafia as it is.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:54 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Remind me, who was lynched again?
Scum was lynched instead of Town. I understand what you're implying but I believe that scum can't read my mind.

Sabrar wrote:How, if at all, does the "preconceived narrative" point you raised earlier affect your read here?
I don't think it does. I may be wrong.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:58 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:I want to lynch LaserGuy. I think the remaining Scum is between JimBob and Bessie.

I think Laser's suspicion of a PW slip was coming from the point of view of Scum who was hypersensitive to their partner's wording. Laser, you mentioned that you unvoted PW shortly after you voiced your suspicion, but that was after I had made my inquiry into what Bessie and Somi thought. Your unvote came off to me as a direct result those responses, as you quoted and praised Somi's response in your subsequent post.

Also, looking back on it, why did you not voice the same opinion about Bessie's response? She had voiced the same opinion about PW's post and her response preceded Somi's. It is peculiar that you would assign positive value to Somi, because Scum Somi could have simply been mirroring Town Bessie's response.


Are you referring to this? I was responding to both flicky and somitomi's reaction to Madge's claim. This should be obvious from context.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby somitomi » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:05 am UTC

First of all, apologies for not being more active, I have an exam coming up.

Right, on to picking out stuff I can quickly comment on:
Madge wrote:Boomfrog having to bus PW is weird, does sit wrong with me. I think BF's woof gambit would be hard though - PW would know BF was scum and... I don't know if he'd be able to react naturally. (Did PW act naturally though? Exercise for the reader).

PW's first (and second) reaction was meowing back, then he mentioned it again here. After that came his list of reasons with "purely scum" at the top. Seems pretty normal to me.
BoomFrog wrote:Replace "we almost can't lose." with "and if I'm right and everyone follows my plan, we can't lose."

If we follow that plan and lynch town twice in a row then even I will doubt the premise and the plan will probably fail. So it's still worth sorting the pool and trying to pick the scum out.

This is probably newbie question, but could you explain that? I'm not quite sure I understand the plan or how it works.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:57 am UTC

stream of consciousness (moreso than usual):

i'm not sure where to stand on cemper, his post started out bad but he had good notes on PW's reads; maybe he was trying to protect flicky and failed. I think overall it's a slight positive on cemper for me, which is good because i've had a hard time reading him.

Hari gets town points for pointing out he didn't want to target PW specifically - but winey points they are!

Nice: Somi / Bessie / Hari

Naughty: BF, Sabrar (more firm after things other people have said), jimbob, Cemper

(both are in descending order-ish)

random thought: more on the doctor as now i'm hoping that with cop dead the doctor is sane. doctor shouldn't claim after a succesful protection even though that gives us a confirmed townie (with some wine). after two succesful protections though probably should. otherwise keep that knowledge until claim time or a LYLO type time?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:00 am UTC

whoops in true stream of consciousnes style, i put cemper on the weak naughty list when i meant to put him on the weak nice list

Nice: Somi / Bessie / Hari / Cemper

Naughty: BF, Sabrar (more firm after things other people have said), jimbob
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:05 am UTC

Madge wrote:Random thought: Bessie's new avatar makes it look like the dog is a head with feet. It's adorable.

@Bessie can you please order people from woof to grr instead of town to scum? I would love it. Except you seem to use woof to mean scummy at the moment. My pup almost never barks but when she does it's when she's trying to get someone to play!
Thank you very much. We had Bessie’s portrait taken a few years ago, and this is one of the pictures from the session that I didn’t like. It’s silly, and I’m not a very silly person, so I never had it printed. I changed my avatar over the weekend to remind me to calm down and quit being so aggressive and I threw this one up there because I never used it before and you know what, after looking at it for a couple of days I’m beginning to really like it. Unfortunately I only have the standard resolution image file; the high resolution files would have cost me another $700, so if I want to have it printed I would need to go back to the portrait studio.

I’m following BoomDog. He uses a single woof to indicate positive and a double woof to indicate negative, with Grrr reserved for strong disagreement, and Arooo for strong agreement.

Hari Seldon wrote:Again, why not lynch Flicky?
When I left for work it was my impression that although flicky was the leader Madge was still a viable candidate. Given the choice between Peaceful Whale and Madge, Madge is better for scum to keep alive, she is a more experienced player. But I am rethinking this because I have received so much resistance from people who were there that say that Madge was never going to happen.

Sabrar wrote:Madge - BoomFrog > bessie + cemper
Any reasons for your scum read of me, or is it the vibe of the thing?

LaserGuy wrote: He's astutely picked up that I was trying to do something different this game, and read it as scummy, which is not unreasonable. It's interesting to me that players who I feel ought to know my meta better (especially bessie/Sabrar) didn't seem to pick up on this.
Interesting you should use “bessie didn’t make meta read” as an excuse to scum read me. If you make your own meta read of me you know well my reluctance of relying too heavily on meta as the basis of a read. I’m not sure but I think I may have brought this up in the past with respect to Madge. [/heavy sarcasm]

No links to this game or the past two provided, there’s a lot of places I discuss this, I just did a search and I used “meta” 55 times already on this game. Here’s an old quote, this has been my view for a while.

Spoiler:
Matrix 6 Redux

Meta arguments. I keep flipping my opinion on whether or not meta arguments are a good strategy, or even useful. I guess they’re useful in that most of us make use of our/others' meta when we play. It’s usually how we start D1, with random voting based on player meta (for many this is a fun stage). How can you not? We’re a relatively small group and many of us have played mafia or other games together. And it’s not necessarily a bad thing. But trying to read a player based entirely on meta and how they acted in previous games can obscure what is happening in the current game. And in my opinion, it’s an unreliable strategy. Some players like moody (sorry to pick on you moody, but I wanted to use as an example someone in this game) have a scummy meta, and tend to quite often get lynched D1. There was actually some meaning in this earlier comment.

On the other hand it’s not just a scummy meta that can be misleading. I have a very townie meta (I guess in fairness I should pick on myself now). I’m usually the towniest townie in the game. I never get lynched. And why shouldn’t I have a townie meta? I’m always town (for the sake of this argument only consider completed games, no reference to open games). I’ve been mafia, member of a team, once in two years of playing. In a recent game someone read me as townie based on my town meta, to which I replied thanks, but when have you seen me play as scum? If someone reads me as townie based on my town meta, that’s suspicious to me because they don’t have a diverse enough data sample on which to base this read.

So on the whole, I think that it’s risky to rely on meta arguments because meta can be deceptive. Of course this would be my opinion because I’m not really good at meta reading players. Some players are. Some people are remarkably good at meta reads and can pick out the one thing that another player always does as scum and catch them. I can’t, and I’m not a particularly good scum hunter either. I can’t do a case based on a player’s behavioral patterns throughout the entire game. I do lists of points that don’t look right to me, often for technical reasons. So I’m struggling in this game with no contradicting claims or night results to pick apart.

Now that I’ve wasted a lot of time on a meta discussion that doesn’t matter, where the hell was I going with this? I guess my point is that it’s useless to make a meta argument on a player based on two games, and even less valid because he was town in both. So his behavior fit his town play. What do you have to compare it to? I believe that a primary read on a player should be based on their content in the current game, and meta-read-magic-insight, by those that possess the gift, should only be used to support their analysis, and not be the reason for the read.


LaserGuy wrote:As I noted here, the type of post-by-post analysis done by moody on PW is something he tends to do as Town (bessie did find one counterexample, but it's from 2014... in more recent games he has only done this as Town).
Interesting though how you selectively use meta arguments when it’s convenient.

LaserGuy wrote:
Peaceful Whale wrote:Jimbobmacdoodle, was really good scum, so not trusting him.

bessie town, duh... let’s see who she tunnels first.

This is a bit more troubling since this is at least an attempt at serious reads, yet jimbob's read references his previous scum game whereas bessie's does not, despite the fact that bessie was also scum in that game. PW is emphasizing bessie's town meta. This is a common newbie scum mistake. Interesting that in his retraction of this point here, he indicates that he was more serious about bessie and joking about jimbob.
And who called him out for his contradiction? Hmm….Oh yeah, it was me, not you, so don't take credit for spotting this.

LaserGuy wrote:PW does a confirmation post analysis here. This is something that bessie (and pretty much only bessie) has done in the past. bessie calls him out here and PW admits to copying her here (9 min later, FWIW). As I said earlier, what bothers me about this interaction is that I simply do not believe that PW would have picked up on this as being that something that townies do, because it isn't: It's something that bessie does, though it hasn't come up in awhile. bessie claims it is from Secret Santa here, but this doesn't make sense both because bessie didn't really do this type of analysis in Secret Santa, and because bessie was mafia that game so there is no reason for PW to be copying her scum meta, nor for bessie to think that was what PW was trying to do. I think it's much more likely that this information was fed to PW in scumchat rather than PW actively going out and digging up this specific piece of information. Likewise the reference to Smallville, which I doubt PW has ever read, but is a game that where both bessie and Madge were scum.

I’ve already explained this thoroughly, and responded to all these points. Now I think you are deliberately looking for an excuse to post this, again, to get it back on the current page.

I don’t know how Peaceful Whale got the idea to copy this particular aspect of my meta. If he has template he followed, he didn’t get it from me. I doubt he got it from someone else and I hope no one actually advised him to do this, I just can’t see it because that would be too obvious if someone gave him a list and said: act like bessie, analyze confirmation posts, talk about the setup, and tunnel. He copied my reads in Crossover, he admitted to copying my meta here. I think it’s entirely possible he made his own list from this:
bessie wrote:Welcome Liri! If you have any general mafia gameplay questions feel free to ask in thread, and someone will probably answer them truthfully.

Ok, no suspicious confirmation posts. Rule clarifications, availability are acceptable topics, as they contain no game content. Sabrar’s enthusiasm has already been noted.

Setup, 7-2-1 or 6-2-1-1. From past experience I expect there to be a lot of superpowered roles, and we are a forum full of creative people.


Oh look, there’s also this:
bessie wrote:Hi Peaceful Whale! I’m glad you decided to stick around and give the game another try. Remember, if you have any general gameplay questions you are welcome to ask in this thread. This is a newbie friendly game, and we will all do our best to help you out. If you have any questions about your role, send a pm to BoomFrog.

Well, let’s see. No one had a suspicious confirmation post.

Setup. Per the sign ups, simple powers, possibly some vanilla roles. Per the game specific rules, no cult. I hope rule #5 is a joke, because jester is an annoying enough role in itself. Per rule #2, tying the votes won’t stop the lynch. So I’m going to say 7-2, or 6-2-1 where independent is not anti-town. Need to think about this a little.


LaserGuy wrote:Apparently Secret Santa did not affect Sabrar's meta read on bessie at all.
Again noted that you will use a meta argument when it is convenient for you.

LaserGuy wrote:What I'm noting most here is a lack of direct interaction between them. bessie talks to Sabrar, and Sabrar talks to bessie, but they are always talking about someone else. bessie never asks Sabrar about Sabrar, and Sabrar (almost) never asks bessie about bessie.
This is not a indication of anything in itself. There are other player pairs in this game without a lot of interaction, like me-Vicarin. They can’t all be scum pairs. Oh wait, selective.

LaserGuy wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:I want to lynch LaserGuy. I think the remaining Scum is between JimBob and Bessie.

I think Laser's suspicion of a PW slip was coming from the point of view of Scum who was hypersensitive to their partner's wording. Laser, you mentioned that you unvoted PW shortly after you voiced your suspicion, but that was after I had made my inquiry into what Bessie and Somi thought. Your unvote came off to me as a direct result those responses, as you quoted and praised Somi's response in your subsequent post.

Also, looking back on it, why did you not voice the same opinion about Bessie's response? She had voiced the same opinion about PW's post and her response preceded Somi's. It is peculiar that you would assign positive value to Somi, because Scum Somi could have simply been mirroring Town Bessie's response.


Are you referring to this? I was responding to both flicky and somitomi's reaction to Madge's claim. This should be obvious from context.
You didn’t answer his question.


Vote: LaserGuy


Ninja'd by Madge, will read later.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:57 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:flicky: He's also counterwagon to scum, which is a point in his favor.

Not disagreeing with the conclusion, but fyi, this shouldn't be counted in Flicky's favor. Pushing the wagon from Flicky to PW doesn't mean Flicky was not scum. If for example there had been a neck and neck race or the wagon was pushed from PW to Flicky but failed, that would indicate Flicky is more likely town since scum showed a preference for his lynch. But the way it happened this game, Flicky's alignment doesn't affect scum's desire to lynch PW.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:18 am UTC

somitomi wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Replace "we almost can't lose." with "and if I'm right and everyone follows my plan, we can't lose."

If we follow that plan and lynch town twice in a row then even I will doubt the premise and the plan will probably fail. So it's still worth sorting the pool and trying to pick the scum out.

This is probably newbie question, but could you explain that? I'm not quite sure I understand the plan or how it works.
No problem. Happy to explain, especially in a newbie game.

The Plan. Assumptions: Last minute voters in PW are town and Flicky is town.

5 players are in the possible scum category. If one is a PR and they claim early enough they will be proven town, leaving 4 possible scum. We can currently afford two misslynchs without losing the game. If we just lynch from that pool and that pool of four contains both scum then we win the game. But if we lynch two from that pool and get town both times, our confidence will be shaken, and we will doubt The Plan, and we may lynch someone outside the pool and lose.

Of course I'm not 100% sure I'm right about the last two scum bring in the pool, but I think I am.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:20 am UTC

I kinda want to have Madge claim just so that A) we can discuss her more clearly instead of beating around the bush. And b) so Sabrar and Bessie (and apparently JimBob) can get over it and start focusing on actual scum.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:30 am UTC

I am opposed to claiming and will not claim unless I am at L-2 or L-3(ish) or I'm leading and it's close to deadline.

1) if I am PR, it outs me and has me as killbait tonight instead of relatively safe from the NK because i'm seen as scummy

2) if I am VT, it will make me look scummy; it will also allow scum to narrow down their kill targets - rather than have me a kill target of ambiguous quality due to the potential I'm PR, killing me is probably a good idea

3) if i'm scum, i will claim VT and it will be indistinguishable from 2)

Since in 2/3 cases I claim VT feel free to make that your assumption in reading me; but I'm not going to claim one way or another until I'm in immediate danger of being voted off.

Then we get to 4:

4) In general, it is best that VT have a policy of not claiming until their voteoff seems imminent; this policy prevents outing PRs earlier than would otherwise be necessary whilst also preventing scum from eliminating people from contention as PR.

degenerate case is all the VTs claim on D1; now scum knows who the PRs are though they don't know specifically who is what role, but it allows them to kill only PRs all game.

At the end of the day, ambiguity about my role hurts scum and I think is neutral to town.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:31 am UTC

before anyone gives me crap for leaving out of 3) the possibility of scum!madge claiming a PR, the real PR would counterclaim and I think you all know how that would go, if it happened. In the best case for scum, me fakeclaiming trades a scum for a townie PR, and I don't think scum wants to make that trade right now.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:31 am UTC

bessie wrote:Any reasons for your scum read of me, or is it the vibe of the thing?
Purely PoE. I got specific townie-pings from the other remaining suspects and none from you. That said I don't have specific scum-pings from you either. And I'm beginning to doubt the pureness of my pings.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:56 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Of course. I preview edited and did not see anything that required immediate correction to my posting.
I was thinking more of the general thrust of your argument.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:13 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Remind me, who was lynched again?
Scum was lynched instead of Town. I understand what you're implying but I believe that scum can't read my mind.
I'm not sure how scum being able to read your mind has anything to do with it. The potential reward for claiming VT (survival), as has been demonstrated by the fact that flicky was NOT lynched and isn't looking likely to be lynched at the moment, is greater than claiming PR. The fact that you won't acknowledge that scum might be willing to risk this, or potentially even made a mistake in their claim, is worrying.

Sabrar wrote:How, if at all, does the "preconceived narrative" point you raised earlier affect your read here?
Thank you. I was concerned that you were treating it as the basis of your scum read on him, when from my own experience, tunnelling can often come from town.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:37 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Of course. I preview edited and did not see anything that required immediate correction to my posting.
I was thinking more of the general thrust of your argument.


I'm not sure I follow exactly what you're referring to.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:49 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I'm not sure I follow exactly what you're referring to.
Really? I 'distanced' myself from bessie before you accused me of being her scum-buddy, making your whole argument fall apart.


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