Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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bessie
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby bessie » Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:23 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:It seems to me that although I protected Madge D1 I attacked her D2, so if she had flipped scum you shouldn't have thought I was scummy in that situation. I would be a pretty awful player if I got my two scum-buddies lynched D1 and D2, especially in a newbie game. So why would I "have you all to myself"?
Why do you feel the need to dictate my reads to me? I just spent four hours Sunday night trying to read you, if you’re town I will do my best and try to figure it out from your content, not from you telling me “would I do this as scum?” which always sounds suspicious when anyone does that. And if Madge had flipped scum, there was a possibility that you would have had me all to yourself, as I possibly would have tunneled you. But since we’re still looking for two scum, you’re going to have to share me with the others.

BoomFrog, if there is a specific post that you want me to comment on can you link it please?

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Now they’re all incorrect because moody wasn’t scum, and PW wasn’t town. But neither of those things were known on D1
Except to possible scum!you. Do you really not see why I find that interesting?
I see how you find me me me interesting, and I’d like to believe you find all my posts interesting. But I don’t see how you find that post suspicious. I start by considering all possibilities and narrow my view from the large picture to the specific, not the other way around.

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: ok, now I understand what you did, it's just that the result (or how you presented it) was not what I expected.
Ok, sigh, what did you expect? How would you like me to organize my results, and what format should I follow? I just did a search at everyspec dot com for a copy of GAME-STD-9001: Mafia – Model for Quality Assurance in Design, Development, Production, and Playing but was unable to find a copy of the standard; I also checked ISO dot org and came up empty. So please forward me a copy, along with the following Standard Operating Procedures:
OP 01 Mafia Design & Project Management
OP 02 Modding & Planning
OP 03 Player Process Procedures
OP 04 Control of Nonconforming Posts
OP 05 Corrective Action

[/sarcasm]

flicky1991 wrote: I dislike long posts that don't seem to actually be saying much,
Well then you haven’t read my posts. I don’t do fluff. Ok, there was some fluff, like the fluff about the late BessieDog. But the remainder of my content is solid, and you really should read every word. I can break my posts up and I probably should so that I’m easier to quote, but I also feel that the form is important to understanding my thought process, and that something might be lost in translation.

flicky1991 wrote: and your interactions towards Whale D1 could be you trying not to put all your help for him in scum chat.
This is a sensible speculation in regards to my “coaching” interactions with Peaceful Whale, so I’ll help you out and give you not only my point of view but an example from a past game. Scum!me absolutely would not put all my advice in chat and would put some advice in thread. MasonMe gave Peaceful Whale advice in thread and in chat when I was mason partners with him in Crossover (read the chat log). Ok, next. I want to say that I have *just about* had it with being accused of being scum for trying to help out a newbie. I try to help out newbies whenever I can, read WoT1, Matrix 6 Newbie, WoT2 (though you have to dig through Gojoe for this one), Bin Chicken (mentor), Crossover, Shakespeare III, etc. My willingness to help out newbies is non alignment indicative. I’ve tried to help out newbie town when I was scum (see WoT1). And I’ve had trying to help out a newbie scum, in Shakespeare, when I was town, destroy that game for me, and it was the game that I was looking forward to more than any other game I’ve played on this forum.
[/not sarcasm]

Sabrar wrote:Silly meta-read incoming.
I think you are quite enjoying your atypical confirmed town status.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I need to go back over bessie's D1 content to convince myself whether she could have attacked her buddy as much as she did.
And that’s fine. I don’t mind being read as a cold heartless bitch that would bus a partner for game purposes, I would take it as a compliment to my skill. I do mind being read as someone that is scummy just for giving advice to a newbie that needed some, and I will not take it as a compliment if you read me as a cold heartless bitch that is only kind for her own direct benefit.

woof
bessie
Sabrar
Hari Seldon
cemper93
flicky1991
jimbobmacdoodle
LaserGuy
BoomFrog
Grrr

I will almost certainly re-woof this list later, I’m still thinking, but that's my two hours for the night.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:16 am UTC

My, last night was quiet. Only two posts to catch up on, and nothing much there to respond to. I feel like some people are coasting a little bit at the moment (glares at cemper in particular), and would like to see some commitment from those who haven't committed yet.

Bessie, FWIW, I do not believe you (or anyone else advising any newbie here) giving PW advice in thread alignment-indicative. I might use it in a read (speaking generally here), but only inasmuch as it highlights a lack of other interactions with the player in question. In other words, if the only interaction you had with someone was giving advice, I would consider that a potential link between the two of you, not because of the advice, but because of the lack of anything else.

Also, bessie, LaserGuy, and anyone else reading Hari as town, would you mind recapping your points on him, as to why he's town, please.

By the way, I have a feeling I might have missed one or two things I need to address from previous nights, and will take a look later, when not phone posting or at work.
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matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:42 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Also, bessie, LaserGuy, and anyone else reading Hari as town, would you mind recapping your points on him, as to why he's town, please.
Sabrar wrote:there are too many small signs of Hari's pov being a townie one. And no, I'm not going to list them, you should find them yourself.

Why don't you try to find them yourself? But just to show show that I'm a good person deep down here's some pointers:
- voted PW
- was against Madge claiming early
- committed very early to town-read bessie based on secret tell
- was specifically against hammering Madge early, promising additional content

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wam
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby wam » Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:16 pm UTC

deadline in 2 days 22 hours

deadline
Come join us playing mafia signup here

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:20 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Why do you feel the need to dictate my reads to me?
I was presenting my perspective so that you could understand it and help explain the difference in your perspective. My goal was to understand your perspective.

And if Madge had flipped scum, there was a possibility that you would have had me all to yourself, as I possibly would have tunneled you. But since we’re still looking for two scum, you’re going to have to share me with the others.
And we have accidentally stumbled on the piece of your logic that I had not understood. Madge flip had nothing to do with my alignment, just with how many scum are left. It was painful but at least I got my question answered.

BoomFrog, if there is a specific post that you want me to comment on can you link it please?
No, I was trying to discuss your thoughts, not your words.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:21 pm UTC

My bottom three are LaserGuy, JimBob and Hari
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:28 pm UTC

@Hari: why did you hang back D1? You asked why I thought you did but you never said what you did. Why are you hanging back today?
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby cemper93 » Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:31 pm UTC

Hi, sorry for not posting recently. I did passively read the new messages in the thread, but didn't have the time to respond. The amount of content in this game is still overwhelming to me, and reading the thread becomes harder and harder because I keep having to go back to the earlier day's discussion to understand the arguments made today. Unlike some players, I have never kept notes when playing mafia. Furthermore, due to RL issues I can't spend more than an hour or so per day on the game right now, and that's what I need just to keep up with it and understand people's thought processes. I'm also limited to slow mobile internet at the moment, which doesn't help much. Anyway, I'll go through the thread now and respond to some things I thought were interesting. If I can make the time today, I will then make the analysis on Flicky and BF that I promised days ago.

Preliminarily, my bottom three are Flicky, BoomFrog and LaserGuy. In addition to what I already said regarding PW's Madge/flicky post, Flicky just keeps buddying me. Normally I'd consider getting very defensive a scum tell, but this is almost the comically absurd opposite. No matter if I'm town or not, if somebody keeps pushing a wagon on me, I'll not have them as one of my top town reads for three days straight and actively defend them against others to boot. This looks like newbie scum actively dancing around a common scum tell. Furthermore, BoomFrog and LG are probably not a team, and Flicky might be a partner to either of them. That's also why I still believe that lynching Flicky has the highest chance of hitting scum today.

My top town read (aside from Sabrar, obviously) is bessie, and given that I was right on Madge yesterday, I trust my town reads right now.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:07 pm UTC

I quickly looked for the JimBob quote defending LaserGuy but I couldn't find it. I think it was D2 and he questioned me about if I thought scum!LaserGuy would have called out PW's "slip" or not.

@Laserguy: Who did you think Madge's likely scum partner would be?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:19 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
jimbob wrote:@BoomFrog, can you explain why you think cemper said there was no night chat?


LaserGuy found one, I remember there being one more defending LaserGuy. Interesting that LG didn't find it.

Times up. I'll look for it later.
Is it just this and the Laser post? You really do not think Scum Jim would fake Town reads? Please try to explain your reasoning as best as you can.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:29 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote: [Hari is town because:]
- voted PW
- was against Madge claiming early
- committed very early to town-read bessie based on secret tell
- was specifically against hammering Madge early, promising additional content

Hari is a cold and calculating person. And he's read enough games to know defending teammates is the most common way for scum to get caught, and he's inexperienced enough to just try and be pure town and lynch his teammate accidentally D1. He said he was pushing for NL, not actually lynching PW.

Being against Madge claiming and being hammered are pretty obvious town perspectives, it's not hard to fake.

His secret town tell could be dropped at any time since it was secret.

Basically, I think Hari does have some of the Boomfrog style and I think we shouldn't give him too much credit. He has done very little to try and help town D2 and D3.

Unvote LaserGuy
Vote Hari
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:34 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
jimbob wrote:@BoomFrog, can you explain why you think cemper said there was no night chat?


LaserGuy found one, I remember there being one more defending LaserGuy. Interesting that LG didn't find it.

Times up. I'll look for it later.
Is it just this and the Laser post? You really do not think Scum Jim would fake Town reads? Please try to explain your reasoning as best as you can.

He's also consistently defended me even when I'm controversial. LaserGuy defending me is odd because he got burned hard in crossfire. JimBob defending me is plausible because he was scum reading me when he died and he can convince himself that he can read me correctly.

I think Scum!JimBob can fake town reads, but I don't expect him to proactively defend those if they seem lynchable.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:08 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@Hari: why did you hang back D1? You asked why I thought you did but you never said what you did. Why are you hanging back today?
I was more interested in your thought process than explaining myself. You were wrong on both ideas here:

BoomFrog wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:@Boom: My question wasn't rhetorical. What do you think my motivation was for my approach D2?

I think it is easier to not have to post and just watch people and I expect you still kept private notes. You could be fishing for reactions to your absence but I don't think that is your style.

I want to make sure you are still reading closely. Also, I was impressed by your method D1 and think it could help us catch scum if you kept it up.
The actual reason is PoE. If there are a group of players that are being Town read, it is not beneficial for them to do the bulk of the posting. It is more beneficial for unknowns and scummy people to do so, so that they have more interactions and we can further develop our reads.

Regarding toDay. I disagree with you that I have been hanging back. I feel the puzzle has mostly been put together. I have a strong scum read on Laser and am ready to lynch him when I've gotten the information I've been waiting for from a few players. It is not that I am hanging back, it is more so that, other than Jim and Laser, the players that I've been waiting for information on have been idle (You, Cemper, and Flicky). I'd like to understand your reads better, because they are currently seeming off in reasoning, which I'll get to in the next post. I want to see Cemper do an analysis of the players with the presumption that Flicky is Town. And I would like to see Flicky's reevaluation of the game, as he currently doesn't have any strong Scum reads.

Also I am not a fan of posting just for the sake of posting. I like for my post to be as meaningful as possible. If I am in the middle of evaluating something, I will likely hold off until I have fully thought it through, unless it is urgent. Flicky and Cemper are already having difficulty keeping up with the game. I don't want them (or anyone) to have to comb through unecessary fluff and further delay the content we could receive from them. And I don't want my posts to be diluted and skimmed due to content volume. I want to be concise, meaningful, and impactful.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby cemper93 » Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:33 pm UTC

jimbob wrote:Interesting to see that scum decided to kill somitomi, who was the obvious target for Sabrar. Perhaps showing a willingness to risk one of themselves getting caught? That would imply that one of them was already under quite some suspicion, as I think otherwise scum would have just gone after the unclaimed players in a hope of hitting the doctor before they claimed.
This is actually a pretty good point. I had considered somitomi the obvious NK target, so I hadn't thought about scum's thought process that much. Unfortunately, I fear that discussing who Sabrar may or may not have decided to watch last night is disadvantageous for town, so I'll leave it at that.

jimbob wrote:@cemper - what do you think about the mistake flicky made regarding forgetting somitomi's claim early D2? How do you think this comes from scum?
Ngh, I had not considered that. I will have to keep it in mind when re-reading flicky.

Sabrar wrote:I remember what pinged me about bessie. It was this post where she speculates that moody's line is rather indicative of scum!moody and town!PW despite herself also attacking PW for other resaons.
I think that even bessie would get self-conscious about exhibiting a scum tell in the same post that she explains it, no? Town!bessie, on the other hand, wouldn't worry about not showing scum tells, and would hence not mind it so much. So -- I actually draw a very different conclusion from this post than you do.

bessie wrote:I agree with Sabrar’s speculation that BoomFrog amy have decided to woof before the game started, and would have done so regardless of his alignment. [...] I think that scum!BoomFrog would have only done the woof gambit if his mafia team had at least one member that he knew would be able to play along with it without chatting about it first, [...].
Hmm. In the scenario where BoomFrog had already made a decision to woof before the game started, wouldn't he have done it anyway, no matter who his partners are? I don't see him as the kind of player who would not do something just on the off chance that a newbie might react weirdly.

BoomFrog wrote:First of all, definitive scum slips are very rare whereas definitive town slips are relatively common from newbies. Also, actions (voting) are much more definitive then words. Early days I'm mostly looking for revelations of hidden thoughts that can be scum or town "slips". When scum are skilled this generally means you're only going to find town slips and get scum by PoE. Later days you can usually figure things out from the voting record.
Do you still hold that all scum were off the PW train?


I like this post by LaserGuy. Obviously, this lacks analysis for LaserGuy's trains. What I notice seeing the wagons lined up like that is that he's not likely to be buddies with flicky: he's kept his vote on flicky for too long, even when flicky was at L-2, and despite being a little more twitchy with his votes earlier. If flicky is indeed town, LaserGuy was third on both large anti-town bandwagons this game.

Analyzing LaserGuy's potential buddies from the trains, bessie and jimbob are the obvious candidates for not being on the PW train. Hari Seldon might also be a buddy if he had not intended to lynch PW and believed that the flicky train would go through anyway. I consider bessie town, so therefore, if LaserGuy was scum, I would take another look at jimbob and Hari in particular. Jimbob, in general, moves up in my scum read slightly due to potentially being a buddy with almost everybody in this game, but that doesn't make me consider him very scummy yet. Although:

jimbob, on BoomFrog, wrote:He agrees with me over LaserGuy being suspicious, which is good FMPOV, and is actively considering his position on various people,
Why is this good "from your point of view"?

Hari Seldon wrote:I want to see Cemper do an analysis of the players with the presumption that Flicky is Town.
If flicky is town, LaserGuy looks worse, as noted above. He would move to be my top scum read. Hari Seldon would also look worse. Conversely, BoomFrog would look better for having shifted his vote away from flicky, and he would move to a town read.

Hari Seldon wrote:Also I am not a fan of posting just for the sake of posting. I like for my post to be as meaningful as possible.
Yes, word! I have put in a request with wam to be replaced. I am not able to provide very meaningful content in this game anymore; I simply lack the time for not only reading the high-volume posts, but thinking them through as well. Sorry everyone!

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:38 pm UTC

@cemper: sorry to hear that.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:42 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
jimbob wrote:@BoomFrog, can you explain why you think cemper said there was no night chat?


LaserGuy found one, I remember there being one more defending LaserGuy. Interesting that LG didn't find it.

Times up. I'll look for it later.
Is it just this and the Laser post? You really do not think Scum Jim would fake Town reads? Please try to explain your reasoning as best as you can.

He's also consistently defended me even when I'm controversial. LaserGuy defending me is odd because he got burned hard in crossfire. JimBob defending me is plausible because he was scum reading me when he died and he can convince himself that he can read me correctly.

I think Scum!JimBob can fake town reads, but I don't expect him to proactively defend those if they seem lynchable.
JimBob's Scum play is different than your Scum play. You are manipulative and push the boundaries of how anti-town you can be without being lynched before endgame. Scum Jim, on the other hand, plays as Townie as possible. He is very careful and self aware. He is not going to so easily contradict himself. Of course he is going to have Town reads. And of course he will play as if they are legitimate Town reads. It is bizarre to me that you would read him based off something so feeble.

The question about Cemper seems to me like a natural question for Scum or Town Jim to ask in the situation. And I also do not think that you were as lynchable D2 as you are suggesting. I think Sabrar and I both would have hard defended you if you were seriously being considered for lynch. And Madge took up so much of the attention, it was very difficult for any other direction to be considered.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:44 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:
jimbob wrote:@cemper - what do you think about the mistake flicky made regarding forgetting somitomi's claim early D2? How do you think this comes from scum?
Ngh, I had not considered that. I will have to keep it in mind when re-reading flicky.

Another example of JimBob defending others. If JimBob is scum he is painting himself into a corner by defending everyone else. It's especially terrible if LaserGuy is his partner as he has left Laser swinging in the wind.

I can't believe that LaserGuy and JimBob are buddies. Someone else is scum.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:49 pm UTC

This reaction from flicky is interesting. I feel scum!flicky would only react that way if his buddy was involved (meaning BoomFrog or jimbob) and he wanted to defend him.

This post gives me huge pings. It feels like BoomFrog is looking at the points from an already established pov. He just claims that everything can be faked (which is obviously true) but does not care about context or overall picture. Plus there is this:
His secret town tell could be dropped at any time since it was secret.
This is simply not true. If bessie ever comes under suspicion (when e.g. Hari Seldon wants to drop his tell) he will simply have to explain what that tell was in order to look credible. He will also have to reveal it if he's a lynch-target. He committed to something that can be verified later. Even if he's scum that something must be reasonable or otherwise he'll get easily lynched.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:59 pm UTC

I must go for now. Boom, I will pick up my posting if it will help you read me. I do think it is important to be read correctly as much as it is to read correctly.

Also, I agree that it is looking less likely that Jim and Laser are both Scum.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:43 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Also, bessie, LaserGuy, and anyone else reading Hari as town, would you mind recapping your points on him, as to why he's town, please.


I have gone back and forth on HS a lot this game. As I noted here, there just aren't that many people left in the game that would make plausible partners for him that I can see. To answer BoomFrog's question, I had felt that HS was likely buddies with Madge (e.g this), but having tried to work through the wagons in detail, I just don't see many other pairings that would plausibly work for him (basically just bessie, and I'd rather lynch bessie than HS at this point).

I feel like the reactions from other players to his persistent tunneling on me, particularly the "slip" business, points to him being Town. Scum tunnels have a built-in receptive audience in the form of buddies that are likely to at least respond to or comment on their buddy's points and try to advance their case. The fact that Hari has been pushing this case since D1 and has received so little interest to me points to a Town tunnel (more specifically, it points to TvT). I think if Hari was scum with a buddy in the game, he would have got more traction at this point, or would have dropped it by now and advanced a different argument or a moved to a different target.

Sabrar wrote:Bottom 3 lists from everyone please.


jimbob, BoomFrog. Less certain about the third. Wagon analysis says cemper by my gut says bessie.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby wam » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:07 pm UTC

MasterOfAll replaces cemper93 effective immediately
Come join us playing mafia signup here

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:11 pm UTC

Yay!

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:13 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote: [Hari is town because:]
- voted PW
- was against Madge claiming early
- committed very early to town-read bessie based on secret tell
- was specifically against hammering Madge early, promising additional content

Hari is a cold and calculating person. And he's read enough games to know defending teammates is the most common way for scum to get caught, and he's inexperienced enough to just try and be pure town and lynch his teammate accidentally D1. He said he was pushing for NL, not actually lynching PW.


What gives you the impression that Hari is a relatively inexperienced player?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby MasterOfAll » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:18 pm UTC

Hi there! I've only been casually following this game so far, and there are 29 pages of posts to go through, so it may take a little while for me to be fully up to speed.

I'm at work right now, so have to do work things for the next few hours, but I will try to make a post with actual content in the next 6-8 hours.

Meanwhile, if someone wanted to provide a brief summary of the action to this point, it would be much appreciated!

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:21 pm UTC

So I had a huge post lined up with funny youtube vid-s and everything. But in light of recent event I'll keep it short.

I think scum was ready to sacrifice one of them because they simply need to kill all PR-s. Therefore bussing during the first half of D3 is expected. An interesting triangle formed with {BoomFrog, jimbob, LaserGuy} and all signs point towards LaserGuy being the one to have carried out the NK.

Vote: LaserGuy

L-2

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:21 pm UTC

EBWOP: just remembered that BoomFrog unvoted. L-3 then.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:29 pm UTC

bessie seems really frustrated this game. Sorry if it's at all to do with the way I'm playing. :(

I've been looking at possible scum pairings out of the four at the bottom of my list. I don't think I will look at any pairings involving LG or cemper/MOA this game-day.

I think I would rule out bessie+BoomFrog (too much arguing between the two of them that didn't seem staged), BoomFrog+Hari (BoomFrog considers Hari scummiest right now), and Hari+jimbob (they've been mostly scum-reading each other all game).

bessie and Hari have both been flip-flopping on each other a lot, moving each other up and down their scum lists like yo-yos. They're the only people other than me that aren't voting anyone right now, interestingly. I'm not sure how I read this pair.

bessie and jimbob is possible - they both started out reading each others town and have gradually slipped down each other's list. I'm reminded of someone making a comment earlier about scum trying to make the progression of their reads seem natural (can't remember who said it). Their only major argument was over ruling out the PW wagon as having scum on it, which could have been intentionally set up so it didn't seem like they had no interaction.

BoomFrog and jimbob actually look like a pretty possible team right now. BoomFrog made almost no comment on jimbob except to read him as fairly townie every now and then, until LaserGuy prodded him about it, at which point he started to move jimbob towards the scummy end, as if he'd been forced to be honest about him. jimbob has been reading Boom as townie the whole time, and a lot of his town reads of him have an "if flicky is town" clause - scum!jimbob would know I'm town and thus that all those arguments get a retroactive boost if I am lynched.

jimbob is in my two most likely teams. I don't see any reason not to:

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:40 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:
jimbob, on BoomFrog, wrote:He agrees with me over LaserGuy being suspicious, which is good FMPOV, and is actively considering his position on various people,
Why is this good "from your point of view"?
I've typed this answer out about 3 times trying to phrase it in a sensible manner, but I'm still not happy with it, I think because I'm struggling to actually justify to myself this point after thinking about it a lot. Basically, if somebody has the same opinions as me, it either means that I'm wrong, and scum are deliberately sheeping me, or they are thinking from a similar point of view to me. Me being reasonably confident in my opinions means I believe the latter. Players who disagree with my opinion however will not see this the same way, since they presumably believe themselves to be right, hence "from my point of view".

wam wrote:MasterOfAll replaces cemper93 effective immediately
Oooo... somebody I have heard of but never seen play before. Welcome to the game MasterOfAll! Not sure I can give a good summary of the game so far, aside from 1 scum was lynched D1, and 1 vanilla town D2. Cop was NKed N1 and Tracker N2, leaving watcher-claimed Sabrar, and an unknown doctor, both of whom might not be sane.

Sabrar wrote:Why don't you try to find them yourself?
Sabrar, I wasn't actually interested in your reasons for town!Hari. I'm trying to get people to justify their Hari reads, which you have no need of doing, as I need to determine who might be Hari's team-mate. Hunting for town clues myself doesn't help me judge anybody apart from Hari. Finding nobody viable for Hari's buddy reduces the chance of Hari being scum. I feel like people have given much lighter reads on Hari this game than LaserGuy, so hence why I asked specifically about Hari here. Anyway, thank you for answering regardless, I will give those points some thought (although I did already take account of Hari's vote for PW in my earlier read of him, and found it not to be definitive).

Could we get some updated votals, please? I'm losing track.

@Sabrar - is that a deliberately ambiguous statement, or are you claiming to have seen LG perform the kill? I'll accept No Comment as an answer, but just want to make sure you're not accidentally making it hard for people to understand your claim (if that's what it is).

Team-analysis forthcoming.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:41 pm UTC

No comment.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:47 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar, I wasn't actually interested in your reasons for town!Hari. I'm trying to get people to justify their Hari reads, which you have no need of doing, as I need to determine who might be Hari's team-mate. Hunting for town clues myself doesn't help me judge anybody apart from Hari.
Sorry about that, didn't read that way.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby wam » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:51 pm UTC

Current Votals:

LaserGuy - 2 (, jimbobmacdoodle, Sabrar)
flicky1991 - 1 (MasterOfAll)
Jimbobmacdoodle - 2 (Laserguy, flicky1991)
Hari Seldon - 1 (boomfrog)

Not voting: bessie, Hari Seldon,

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.

Deadline in 2 days 16 hours

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Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:59 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I quickly looked for the JimBob quote defending LaserGuy but I couldn't find it. I think it was D2 and he questioned me about if I thought scum!LaserGuy would have called out PW's "slip" or not.

Found where you quoted it whilst doing my partner analysis:
BoomFrog wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:What do you think about LaserGuy pointing out PW's slip? Do you think he'd do that to his scum buddy, when there wasn't really any need to?

I didn't think it was actually a scum slip, (as Hari pointed out). But I was thinking LaserGuy jumped on it because as a scummate it stuck out to him and he thought it was obvious enough that someone would point it out, so he might as well do it first and get credit. It's weak evidence either way. However, for other reasons LG is drifting towards townie today, I'm still pretty undecided but currently Cemper seems scummiest.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:10 pm UTC

jimbob wrote:@Sabrar - is that a deliberately ambiguous statement, or are you claiming to have seen LG perform the kill? I'll accept No Comment as an answer, but just want to make sure you're not accidentally making it hard for people to understand your claim (if that's what it is).


Sabrar does not have a result on me.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:59 pm UTC

Buddies for LaserGuy analysis (looking at things from buddies point of view, not LG's). Thinking about what Sabrar and others have said, I think the D3 content is somewhat null, because if scum decided to risk being watched by targeting somitomi, there's a fair chance they'd go pretty hard-core bussing/distancing today. But LG is still a good scum shout, in my opinion, so attacking him today is not alignment indicative, unless the potential partner was reading them as townie D2.

flicky - Unlikely. First reads list has LG as scummiest ("bad plans" and early vote), voting him, (and also has PW as other scummy player). Quite early to be bussing, I feel. His later explanation to LG as to why he was in the bottom spots sounded quite natural. Switched his vote to PW, where it sayed until the end of D1. I don't feel that scum!flicky would switch between two buddies that early in the game. Minus points for considering a LG/PW team impossible. Defends both me and LG in the same breath when talking about narrowing lynch pools, which looks good, but isn't definitive. Calls LaserGuy out for FoSing Hari over opinion change. However, eventually swings round to town!LG. My feeling is that scum!flicky has tied himself too closely to LaserGuy with his strong town read today, especially given the way the lynch is going, and combine this with his D1 behaviour between LG and PW, and I'm fairly confident that flicky is not a buddy of scum!LG.

Hari - Unlikely. Kicks off his first points post with negative points for LG, and awards him more negative points in his next one for a lack of genuineness, although does award him some positive points later on. He continues to lightly pick at LG for much of D1. Eventually ends up voting LaserGuy, so is at least consistent with his D1. Bussing is possible, but like flicky, he'd have had to have bussed both buddies then, since he switched to PW later. However, I feel like Hari is more the kind of player who might bus compared to flicky. Has a bit of a discussion with LG early D2, but it comes across quite civil. However, he then decides he wants to lynch LaserGuy again D2, based on some of these points. In isolation, bussing is again possible, but combine that with the fact that scum!Hari would have had to have bussed his buddies both D1 and D2, and it starts to feel like a bit of a stretch. Does acknowledge a lot of townie points from LG, but still maintains a scum read on him. I don't think scum!Hari would bother going into such a detailed case on scum!LG over the squint slip comment, and would more likely have backed off the scum read. He continues to maintain this view as well.

BoomFrog - Slightly unlikely. Looked very much possible D1, due to him reading LG as very townie, but quickly swung around at the start of D2. He did start backing down on LaserGuy during D2, but reversed again on this as the day drew on. I don't think this sort of play is all that likely to come from a buddy. I think scum would be willing to flip their opinion on a buddy midway through a day once, but not twice. Attacked LG right from the go on D3, although has now switched to Hari. Somewhat suspicious iff LG is scum.

bessie - very unlikely. Identified LaserGuy as fishing for her to change her vote. Her tone when addressing me removing LG from my early D2 lynch pool doesn't sound like it could come from a buddy. Quite a bit of back-and-forth between them, such as why bessie wasn't asking LG questions, bessie pointing out errors in LG's logic on moody, etc. Bessie at times sounds particularly aggressive towards LG. I think she'd hold back a bit if they were buddies. Bessie eventually votes LG D2, and LG had already voted her by this point, which makes this some pretty strong distancing, given that there was no clear wagon at the time. (Stopped looking at 3/4 through D2, as I'd seen enough. Let me know if I obviously missed something from later).

cemper/MasterOfAll - Possible. There's a lot of agreement with LG's plans early on, but I don't think that this is a sign of a scum-buddy supporting their buddy's plan. It would likely come across as too forced. They might support it independently though. Leant town on LG during D1, and I kind of like the tone in that read (i.e. it doesn't really seem like a partner read). The discussion with LG over reading past games feels a bit weird to be coming from a scum buddy, although I guess it could be a possible attempt at distancing. D3, he barely said anything, but did briefly mention that LG was in his bottom three, and started looking for potential buddies, but as noted above, by this point scum would potentially have had good reason to bus LG. Overall, nothing really stands out here either way, making a team here plausible.

Hmm... that wasn't as conclusive as I'd hoped, as it means that cemper would have had to have faked the town-slip. I'm going to have to review that point again at some point. Still, at least there is somebody who is a viable buddy. Also, I need to look at things from LG's point of view (i.e. review his posts rather than the people he might be buddies with).

Summary list for the above analysis from least to most-likely scum!LG buddy:
bessie
flicky
Hari Seldon
BoomFrog
cemper/MasterOfAll

I definitely also need to do the equivalent analysis of Hari, but I'm not sure when or if I'll get a chance before deadline, as my father is visiting from tomorrow for the weekend.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:02 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
jimbob wrote:@Sabrar - is that a deliberately ambiguous statement, or are you claiming to have seen LG perform the kill? I'll accept No Comment as an answer, but just want to make sure you're not accidentally making it hard for people to understand your claim (if that's what it is).


Sabrar does not have a result on me.
You might as well claim properly, LaserGuy. Hari Seldon has already said he'll likely vote you, which will be L-2, and I expect BoomFrog will switch back if there isn't a swing to Hari. But do as you wish.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:29 am UTC

@Sabrar: It's moot at this point, but I think it was strategically unhelpful for you to weigh in or vote before deadline if you're just going to agree with the consensus target anyway.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:32 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:What gives you the impression that Hari is a relatively inexperienced player?

True, I was just going off him being new to the forum, but you are right, he's clearly not a newbie.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:09 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:What gives you the impression that Hari is a relatively inexperienced player?

True, I was just going off him being new to the forum, but you are right, he's clearly not a newbie.
What led you to this conclusion?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby MasterOfAll » Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:56 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Oooo... somebody I have heard of but never seen play before. Welcome to the game MasterOfAll! Not sure I can give a good summary of the game so far, aside from 1 scum was lynched D1, and 1 vanilla town D2. Cop was NKed N1 and Tracker N2, leaving watcher-claimed Sabrar, and an unknown doctor, both of whom might not be sane.
Thanks for the quick recap.

Just so I have it in one place, I've grabbed the end of day votes (with dead players struck out):
the mods wrote:End of D1 Votals
flicky1991 - 4 (cemper93, LaserGuy, Madge, Vicarin)
Peaceful Whale - 5 (flicky1991, BoomFrog, Hari Seldon, Sabrar, somitomi)
Madge - 1 (bessie)
cemper93 - 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)

Not voting: Peaceful Whale

End of D2 Votals
Madge - 4 (jimbobmacdoodle, BoomFrog, LaserGuy, Sabrar)
BoomFrog - 2 (bessie, Madge)
flicky1991 - 1 (cemper93)

Not voting: Hari Seldon, flicky1991, somitomi

Since D1 was a close vote and D2 wasn't, I think there might be more to be learned from D1's. It's not unheard of for scum to bus a scummate on D1, but since it was such a close vote at the end I am going to give town creds to flicky1991, BoomFrog, Hari Seldon, and Sabrar (who gets all the town creds for claiming watcher without any counter). For the D2 vote, my only thought is that it is unlikely that *both* scum voted for Madge as it would seem safe for scum to leave a vote wherever it might already be (or not be).

So, following that logic, without bothering to consider players' actual posts, leads me to think that bessie is scum with either jimbobmacdoodle or LaserGuy as her scum-bro.

Of course, I am not completely ruling out scum voting for PW on D1, so flicky1991, BoomFrog, and Hari Seldon are not getting 100% passes from me.

Still, I don't see any reason to continue to have a vote on flicky, so . . .

Unvote (flicky1991)

I will hold off on casting a new vote until I have something more than vote analysis to go off. I am going to start reading through some posts now, but no promises that I'll actually find anything worth sharing.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Suzaku » Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:25 am UTC

Current Votals:

LaserGuy - 2 (jimbobmacdoodle, Sabrar)
jimbobmacdoodle - 2 (LaserGuy, flicky1991)
Hari Seldon - 1 (BoomFrog)

Not voting: bessie, Hari Seldon, cemper93MasterOfAll

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
Deadline in about 2 days and 9 hours.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
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