Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

For your simulated organized crime needs.

Moderators: jestingrabbit, Moderators General, Prelates

User avatar
flicky1991
Like in Cinderella?
Posts: 780
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:36 pm UTC
Location: London

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:31 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Still convinced scum is [amongst everyone who isn't confirmed town or jimbob]
I know, I'm exaggerating, but still...
any pronouns
----
avatar from chridd
----
Forum Games Discord
(tell me if link doesn't work)

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:35 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I can think of one weird edge case for scum to withhold,
It's not an edge case. scum!bessie can easily do it.
Another possibility is that MOA's scum-buddy wanted him to cc BoomFrog but MOA was away and in the end decided not to do it.
I cannot think of any other scenario where this night-result makes sense.

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4585
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:42 pm UTC

Was not expecting to be here today. Very interesting turn of events. Only have time for a few quick comments. As usual, I have been wrong about everything his game :(

flicky1991 wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Ok, so scum messed up (or forgot to submit NK???).
Or BoomFrog self-protected?


@bessie, what do you think of flicky's question here?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Confirming that I am not the doctor.

Seems to me that the best plan is BoomFrog (or real doctor if there is a counter-claim)/Sabrar mutually targeting each other. Of course, scum know this so *shrug*.


@Hari, what do you think about this?

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:35 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:It's not an edge case. scum!bessie can easily do it.
Perhaps. But why?


LaserGuy wrote:@bessie, what do you think of flicky's question here?
I think it’s odd no one has asked the mod if self targeting is allowed.

Is self-targeting allowed?

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:38 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Perhaps. But why?
Quite simple. scum!bessie hopes that BoomFrog tries to outsmart scum and protect her. No death implies scum tried to kill bessie, 'proving' her to be Town indeed.

bessie wrote:Is self-targeting allowed?
Asked mods, it is not allowed. I would assume any competent scum-player would have already asked it, especially since Madge also mentioned this.

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:51 pm UTC

I really hate “would I do this if I were scum” replies because they’re usually done by scum, but I would have totally killed BoomFrog. And why would BoomFrog protect me and not you, or himself? Right now is one of the worst situations for scum. The two strongest players are confirmed town, and the super scummy one is no longer a potential mislynch. I can’t see them withholding. They killed somitomi; they aren’t afraid of being seen.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:57 pm UTC

Exactly. So why the hell is BoomFrog alive???

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:01 am UTC

Perhaps they targeted you. If they're not afraid of your power, there are still other reasons to kill you. :P

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:19 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Another possibility is that MOA's scum-buddy wanted him to cc BoomFrog but MOA was away and in the end decided not to do it.

Claims at the time BoomFrog claimed doctor:

Sabrar – watcher
flicky – vanilla town
LaserGuy – vanilla town
bessie, Hari, jimbobmacdoodle, MasterOfAll – no claim

Perhaps scum couldn’t counterclaim.

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4585
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:19 am UTC

bessie wrote:Perhaps they targeted you. If they're not afraid of your power, there are still other reasons to kill you. :P


Why would scum be afraid of Sabrar's power?

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:27 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Why would scum be afraid of Sabrar's power?
Hmm, interesting, you asked me a question where the answer can be gleaned from a careful analysis of my posts on this page. But you ask me to answer this directly. LaserGuy, I’m trying to be just a bit subtle, but I think you know that.

Or is it that you want to turn the discussion away from my previous post?

So LaserGuy, why do you think there was no counterclaim?

User avatar
Suzaku
Posts: 279
Joined: Thu May 31, 2012 10:20 am UTC
Location: Tokyo, Japan

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Suzaku » Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:46 am UTC

Is self-targeting allowed?

No roles may self-target.
Pronouns: he/him/his > they/them/their >> it/it/its
Time Zone: JST (UTC+9)
─────────────────────────
Some guy on the Internet wrote:The thing about the inevitable, it has a bad habit of actually happening.

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1070
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:54 am UTC

bessie wrote:I really hate “would I do this if I were scum” replies because they’re usually done by scum, but I would have totally killed BoomFrog.

Even though I had shown I think you are town and had at least three people I wanted to lynch before you?
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4585
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:07 am UTC

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Why would scum be afraid of Sabrar's power?
Hmm, interesting, you asked me a question where the answer can be gleaned from a careful analysis of my posts on this page. But you ask me to answer this directly. LaserGuy, I’m trying to be just a bit subtle, but I think you know that.


Be unsubtle. I want the direct answer.

Or is it that you want to turn the discussion away from my previous post?

So LaserGuy, why do you think there was no counterclaim?


Both wagons were Town. Scum had no reason to counterclaim.

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:57 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote: Even though I had shown I think you are town and had at least three people I wanted to lynch before you?
Yes. So you ended D3 with a town read on me. So what. Your death would be great wine for scum!me on D4. And your read at the end of D3 doesn’t mean you were going to start D4 with a town read on me. Do you have a town read on me now?

Ordered list of reasons for killing BoomFrog, objective point-of-view:
1. BoomFrog is the doctor.
2. BoomFrog is confirmed town and unmislynchable.
3. BoomFrog is one of the strongest players in the game.
4. BoomFrog can’t be protected by the doctor.

LaserGuy wrote:Be unsubtle. I want the direct answer.
I’ll answer this if confirmed town asks me to answer it.

LaserGuy wrote:Both wagons were Town. Scum had no reason to counterclaim.
If there had been a counterclaim, the doctor would probably have been lynched.

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4585
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:04 am UTC

bessie wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Be unsubtle. I want the direct answer.


I’ll answer this if confirmed town asks me to answer it.


Okay.
Vote bessie

LaserGuy wrote:Both wagons were Town. Scum had no reason to counterclaim.
If there had been a counterclaim, the doctor would probably have been lynched.[/quote]

And then the fake doctor would be lynched the next day. This is a bad result for scum compared to the alternative.

User avatar
Hari Seldon
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:08 am UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:19 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Hari Seldon: what changed your mind about LaserGuy?
I get Town vibes from Laser's deadline posts. I did not have time to read it before, but the flow of logic in his big read post does not feel forced. While the points on Boom are incorrect, I believe that the reasoning is sound and I had become convinced by it over the Night. I thought it was very likely that we were going to come into today with Doc MOA killed. Also, excuse my lack of objectivity, but his reaction to Boom's claim gave me a heart flutter feel. This is often the feeling I get when I think we are going to mislynch. I'm not really certain how to describe it in any other way, but it's the same feeling that provoked me to vote PW > Flicky. I know this sounds frivolous, but I really do not know how else to put it.

I do think Laser could still be scum, but I am much less certain. I am having difficulty reconciling my present feelings with the feelings I had of his D1 play. Of the other three, I still think he is most likely to be scum, but I think JimBob is scummiest of the four. His postings give me a strong sense of agenda, and I have had the sense since early on that Jim has been justifying his reads rather than coming to them through reasoning. For example, as was point out by Laser, his reasoning for Hari/Laser is discordant. He does not believe that we are both scum, does not think we are scum with anyone else, but is willing to lynch either of us. This gives me the impression that he is justifying, not reasoning.

Also, after reevaluating the points I made yesterDay, I do not believe Jim's explanations. It is obvious that he was fishing for a Cemper lynch even though unclaimed, and that he was willing to risk lynching and unclaimed Madge. When Jim voted (or was going to vote) Madge, he claimed in his post that he would likely unvote if Madge did not claim. Voting for her at this time, however, was unreasonable, as Madge had just stated a few posts before that she was going to bed.

LaserGuy wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Confirming that I am not the doctor.

Seems to me that the best plan is BoomFrog (or real doctor if there is a counter-claim)/Sabrar mutually targeting each other. Of course, scum know this so *shrug*.


@Hari, what do you think about this?
I am not certain I see what you are pointing out. What comes to my mind is that on D1 JimBob pushed me for suggesting that we specify a target for Watcher and another PR. His argument was that it allowed Scum to kill freely without fear of being Watched. This shows a contradiction in thought.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:46 am UTC

@Hari Seldon: thank you for the detailed answer. Could you also share your secret tell on bessie?

User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:47 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:For example, as was point out by Laser, his reasoning for Hari/Laser is discordant. He does not believe that we are both scum, does not think we are scum with anyone else, but is willing to lynch either of us.
This is incorrect. I know that I am wrong with the town read about one of {MoA/flicky/bessie}. I believe that LaserGuy could be buddies with MoA, and I believe that you could be buddies with any of those three. I haven't got a firm feeling which of the two of you is scum, but I'm about 95% certain that I am right on this.

I'm not sure why I'm having to repeat this. It's pretty clear from my earlier reads that this was what I believed, as I already pointed out late D3. The fact that you are continuing to push this is worrying.

Not got time to address the other points, but wanted to bring this point up in particular.
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:24 pm UTC

Time to sheep.

Vote: jimbob

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4585
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:38 pm UTC

@bessie, which games have you played with cemper before?

User avatar
wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby wam » Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:46 pm UTC

Current Votals:

Jimbobmacdoodle - 2 (Hari Seldon, Sabrar)
bessie - 1 (LaserGuy)

Not voting: cemper93 MasterOfAll, bessie, flicky1991, BoomFrog, jimbobmacdoodle

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
Come join us playing mafia signup here

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4585
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:36 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:@bessie, which games have you played with cemper before?


Ah, nevermind, you already commented on this here

User avatar
Hari Seldon
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:08 am UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:46 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:For example, as was point out by Laser, his reasoning for Hari/Laser is discordant. He does not believe that we are both scum, does not think we are scum with anyone else, but is willing to lynch either of us.
This is incorrect. I know that I am wrong with the town read about one of {MoA/flicky/bessie}. I believe that LaserGuy could be buddies with MoA, and I believe that you could be buddies with any of those three. I haven't got a firm feeling which of the two of you is scum, but I'm about 95% certain that I am right on this.

It's pretty clear from my earlier reads that this was what I believed, as I already pointed out late D3.
The reasoning for your conclusion is not at all clear. Please succinctly explain why you think one scum is in one group and the other is in the other group. You have explained why you do not think Laser and I are buddies, but you have not explained why one of us must be scum.

User avatar
Hari Seldon
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:08 am UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:06 pm UTC

Also JimBob, in the iso analysis you made of me in this post, you came to the conclusion that I was town. During the deadline, however, you tried to lynch me for the exact opposite reasons you came to a Town conclusion in your iso. Additionally, despite the Town read, you placed me as second to last on your read list in the same post. This is where my feeling that you have been trying to rationalize your stance was rekindled. (I suspected this D1 as well. The point I made here was never addressed). My original interpretation for why you had me so low on your list was that you felt I was simply the most suspicious of your overabundant Town reads. But if that is the case, why is it that me being scum is exclusive from your other Town reads?

User avatar
MasterOfAll
Jack of No Trades
Posts: 49
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 6:38 pm UTC
Location: C̶a̶l̶i̶f̶o̶r̶n̶i̶a̶ Beautiful

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby MasterOfAll » Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:11 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Ok, so scum messed up (or forgot to submit NK???).

@MasterOfAll: when can we expect a full read-list from you?
That is a good question. I don't have a good answer. Unfortunately, I am a bit ill right now, which is affecting my ability to read and think logically. My mafia hunting skills are pretty rusty anyway, so y'all are probably not missing out on much. I'll try to get something done in the next couple days, but don't expect anything too extensive.

User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:13 pm UTC

Sorry, I'm feeling pretty rough this evening, so am not going to reply to your comments now, Hari, but will do so later. Just posting to show that I've seen them and will come back later.
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4585
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:29 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:I am not certain I see what you are pointing out. What comes to my mind is that on D1 JimBob pushed me for suggesting that we specify a target for Watcher and another PR. His argument was that it allowed Scum to kill freely without fear of being Watched. This shows a contradiction in thought.


This isn't exactly what I was going for, but thank you for your answer nonetheless.

My interest here mostly lies in what people think about Sabrar's power. The progression on Sabrar's D3 claim (here, here, here, here, here) generally supports the conclusion that Sabrar targeted somitomi N2 and did not get a result, implying that Sabrar is naive. In the quote I'm referencing, jimbob appears to have missed this point, though I suppose it's possible that jimbob just wasn't paying close attention at the time, given this. jimbob was involved in that conversation (here and here), so it feels a bit incongruous to me that he would have missed its conclusion.

In your case, I think your posting here, and here indicate that you were aware of the situation, though your post above is more ambiguous.

My impression from flicky is that he was expecting a BoomFrog kill rather than a non-BoomFrog kill, since his first thought was self-protection. Conversely, MoA's instinct was that BoomFrog protected Sabrar, which is consistent with him not being caught up on the game (and/or having a buddy with this same opinion).

What's more interesting are bessie's comments here and here and her evasion of my question here. The implication that I draw from these posts is that bessie is, presently, in D4, unaware that in all likelihood Sabrar's power is naive.
bessie wrote:They killed somitomi; they aren’t afraid of being seen.

bessie wrote:Perhaps they targeted you. If they're not afraid of your power, there are still other reasons to kill you.

Neither of these statements is consistent with bessie believing that Sabrar is naive (I think the implication she is trying to make here is that scum!LaserGuy is being read as so scummy that he doesn't care about being caught).

Why does it matter who thinks Sabrar is naive? My feeling is that it explains the lack of NK. The optimal play for scum last night based on the evidence we have was to target BoomFrog. Since scum targeted a non-BoomFrog player (presumably Sabrar) instead of BoomFrog, that would indicate that scum is more concerned about the kill being observed than the kill being blocked. Scum is therefore likely among the players that do not believe that Sabrar is naive--both scum, in fact, since if one scum were among the players who thought that did not think this, it's likely that they would have advised their buddy on the optimal play.

Based on this analysis, I think scum is most likely bessie/MoA, though bessie/jimbob or jimbob/MoA are also possible.

User avatar
Hari Seldon
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:08 am UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:05 pm UTC

Bessie Meta:

Spoiler:
Bessie is known for her tunneling, but there is a reverse side to this: she only lightly touches upon people outside of her radar. In other words, Town Bessie is so focused on her Scum reads, that her Town reads are hardly addressed. I had taken notice of this in her past two Town games, because her ordered read lists appeared arbitrary to me on the Town side. I realized this is because she doesn't really take time out to go into her Town reads (and instead focuses on jabbing at her Scum reads and explaining the discourse between them). I noticed immediately when she had deviated from this in Santa—in her reaction to Sabrar on the bottom of this post. She continued this pattern here, here, and here. Her analysis of Sabrar in the last link had no purpose other than to show that she was "thinking" about her read, because there was no new output of information. You could basically think of her post as a black box with the input "Sabrar = Town" and the output of "Sabrar = Town".

Of course, now that it has been made aware, this tell has no value in the future. Additionally, it is Bessie specific. The same analysis could not be applied to JimBob for instance, as his play style consists of consistent reiteration of his perspective. Also, as I mentioned before, there isn't enough data for this to have been used as anything more than a starting point. If I had noticed this pattern in this game, it would not have been something I would lynch her for, but I do think it would have been a starting point of suspicion. And on the other end, I do not think her lack of this pattern is something to clear her for. There are other reasons, however, that I think she is likely Town.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:37 pm UTC

@MasterOfAll: hope you'll feel better soon. Unfortunately so far you have given us almost nothing to work with, please aim to change that.

@Hari Seldon: thank you for that very interesting insight.

@LaserGuy: nice pov, though I disagree with the basic premise.

I've re-read flicky today with the explicit intention of finding him scummy and just couldn't bring myself to it. He makes multiple town-slips that I see hard to fake. He should really post more content though.
I'm convinced bessie and Hari Seldon are town, I'm unsure about LaserGuy. I need to reread cemper to see if my previous belief of them having no scredible scum-buddies would hold. That leaves jimbob as prime candidate for today.

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:58 am UTC

MasterOfAll wrote:That is a good question. I don't have a good answer. Unfortunately, I am a bit ill right now, which is affecting my ability to read and think logically. My mafia hunting skills are pretty rusty anyway, so y'all are probably not missing out on much. I'll try to get something done in the next couple days, but don't expect anything too extensive.
Hope you feel better soon. Can you provide us with an ordered town-scum list as soon as you are able? And if your mafia skills are rusty, a good solution might be signing up for more games! :D

Re this post by LaserGuy.
LaserGuy wrote:What's more interesting are bessie's comments here and here and her evasion of my question here.
Hmm, I did know where you were going with your question. And I decided not to directly answer your question for reasons. I tried to tell you that here:
bessie wrote: Hmm, interesting, you asked me a question where the answer can be gleaned from a careful analysis of my posts on this page. But you ask me to answer this directly. LaserGuy, I’m trying to be just a bit subtle, but I think you know that.
LaserGuy, didn’t you notice that I asked for Sabrar and BoomFrog’s opinion about replying to this?
bessie wrote:I’ll answer this if confirmed town asks me to answer it.
BoomFrog hasn’t been on, but Sabrar completely ignored it (and I’m sure he saw it because Sabrar doesn’t miss anything), so maybe that’s an indication that he didn’t want this discussed?

Also you’ve not only completely misread me, you’ve completely misread the evidence (my posts). LaserGuy, your case on me reads like you started with an objective, and then interpreted my posts in a way to make the evidence support your final conclusion. Your questions to me weren’t objective, they were leading, like you really wanted an excuse to discuss Sabrar’s power, and I didn’t bite. And neither did Sabrar. Like when you posted this:
LaserGuy wrote:No, scum only knew you were naive for certain when you said you weren't lying (assuming you weren't lying about that)
No, I didn’t miss that comment on D3. I had it in my notes, along with your response to jimbob here. And I had a response to your question prepared if Sabrar or BoomFrog told me to answer it, which they haven’t.


Re this post by Hari Seldon.
:shock: Umm, I have no response for this at this time.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:22 am UTC

@BoomFrog: you are/were convinced that jimbob and LaserGuy can't be a team. Are your reasons solely based on jimbob's content or has LaserGuy also demonstrated something that makes you think so?

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1070
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:10 am UTC

@Bessie: I am watching intently from my Ivory Tower.

Sabrar wrote:@BoomFrog: you are/were convinced that jimbob and LaserGuy can't be a team. Are your reasons solely based on jimbob's content or has LaserGuy also demonstrated something that makes you think so?

Mostly that they both were the first to limit the lynch pool D2 and that's suicidal as a team. But it's possible they felt constrained by what they would do as town.

Also, it's lazy to declare them a likely team and stop considering other possibilities.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:31 am UTC

I'm not 'declaring' them as a team, I'm just questioning your reasoning for the opposite.

User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:16 am UTC

Properly going through last couple of days of content.
Will see how far I get before I get to work.
flicky1991 wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Still convinced scum is [amongst everyone who isn't confirmed town or jimbob]
I know, I'm exaggerating, but still...
Yes, obviously. My point being that I have strong reasons to believe everybody in the group of 3 is town, making Hari and LaserGuy the likeliest culprits, except that those two are unlikely to be buddies. My ego and stubbornness say I'm not wrong twice, hence why not two out of the three. Most likely player to be scum from those three is, I think, bessie, as otherwise, one of you and cemper had to fake one or more town slips, but I'm still considering this. Given this, Hari is more likely scum than LaserGuy, since I previously thought it unlikely that LaserGuy and bessie could be buddies.

Sabrar, you're right on that point re. Scum targeting bessie (it also works for other scum players theoretically). However, I think it's a stretch calling it a mistake if scum targeted you. I doubt scum would want to target one of the unconfirmeds, as it gives them less space to hide in, and as far as I'm aware, you haven't actually declared that you are naïve, so scum may have changed their minds about the risk of you seeing them, possibly because they have tied themselves to each other too much. Also, targeting you is risk free. Even if BoomFrog were to successfully protect you, they haven't really lost all that much. Barring a successful doctor save, town still have to No Lynch, and that night scum can kill, exactly as if they had last night.
bessie wrote:and the super scummy one is no longer a potential mislynch
Huh? We don't have any confirmed scum, so everybody is still a potential mislynch.
LaserGuy wrote:Both wagons were Town. Scum had no reason to counterclaim.
Assuming for a moment that you are town, scum still had a reason to counter-claim: to stop BoomFrog being confirmed as town. A counter-claim could very likely have led to the doctor's lynch. Also, scum might have been afraid of a repeat of D1. You being scum would make a counter-claim from your buddy very risky.
LaserGuy wrote:And then the fake doctor would be lynched the next day. This is a bad result for scum compared to the alternative
Leaving town with no mislynches remaining, and no confirmed townies (Sabrar would likely be night killed).

Arrived at work, and have just got to the first of Hari's posts, so will likely continue from there on my way home.
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:13 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:so scum may have changed their minds about the risk of you seeing them, possibly because they have tied themselves to each other too much.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Assuming for a moment that you are town, scum still had a reason to counter-claim: to stop BoomFrog being confirmed as town. A counter-claim could very likely have led to the doctor's lynch.

This is inconsistent. If scum is afraid I see them they should not reveal themselves by counter-claiming.

In my mind I keep coming back to the end of D1. I'll try to organize my thoughts about it later today, work became busy.

User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:25 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:so scum may have changed their minds about the risk of you seeing them, possibly because they have tied themselves to each other too much.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Assuming for a moment that you are town, scum still had a reason to counter-claim: to stop BoomFrog being confirmed as town. A counter-claim could very likely have led to the doctor's lynch.

This is inconsistent. If scum is afraid I see them they should not reveal themselves by counter-claiming.
Fair point. I hadn't considered the two things together. I was looking at them in isolation. Will need to think about that a bit more and what it implies. Given the known evidence, i.e. that there was no counter-claim, and no death, I do stand by the first point still, i.e. that scum may have targeted Sabrar to avoid being seen by him, and risk BoomFrog successfully protecting Sabrar.
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

User avatar
flicky1991
Like in Cinderella?
Posts: 780
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:36 pm UTC
Location: London

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:45 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:as far as I'm aware, you haven't actually declared that you are naïve
He may have not declared it, but he implied it in letters so big even I could see them. I find it really hard to believe that neither scum knew that Sabrar was naïve - that's why my mind jumped to BoomFrog self-protecting.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
bessie wrote:and the super scummy one is no longer a potential mislynch
Huh? We don't have any confirmed scum, so everybody is still a potential mislynch.
I understood "super scummy one" to mean BoomFrog, who is no longer a potential mislynch by virtue of being confirmed town. (bessie wouldn't be talking about scum that aren't going to get lynched, since her point was about how bad the situation was for scum.)
any pronouns
----
avatar from chridd
----
Forum Games Discord
(tell me if link doesn't work)

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:36 pm UTC

@flicky: it feels to me like you're lurking really hard. Could you please organize your thoughts and provide a read-list?

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1070
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:29 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I'm not 'declaring' them as a team, I'm just questioning your reasoning for the opposite.

I didn't want saying you were lazy I was using lazy as a short hand for "my Bayesian priors indicate they were likely to feel scummy in this situation so assuming they are a team is actually arriving at a conclusion on little evidence."
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos


Return to “Mafia”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests