Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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flicky1991
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:28 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:Just flicked through again, bessie on Whale D1 wasn't as bad as I remembered. Going to look through the rest of bessie now and see if I still agree with putting her in my scum pile.
For the love of sanity please do not analyse Bessie's treatment of PW D1. It was townie Bessie behavior. At worst it was null but it is certainly not scummy. Find something else to analyse.
Read what you're quoting. I said I'm going to read the rest of bessie's content, meaning I'm done with looking at her treatment of PW on D1.

BoomFrog wrote:
Probably should re-read Hari too, since if bessie is town then I might need to reconsider the Hari/jimbob pairing, which I dismissed before due to their reads on each other.
You claim you are struggling so hard to find a second scum but yet you don't reconsider LaserGuy. Why is that?
LaserGuy and MoA are my towniest reads so I've been focusing on the other three possible scums. That doesn't mean I think LaserGuy and MoA are definitely town.

Post re-reading bessie has been WIP since my last post, btw - it's coming! Just keep getting distracted.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:45 pm UTC

I'm really finding it hard to tell what's up with bessie. I find her posts hard to read not just in a town-or-scum sense, but just in terms of working out what her point is. I think the "fluff" I was seeing before was just not understanding half her post and therefore dismissing it as unimportant, when probably I should have just been asking her. I'm thinking of things like the "I have a different point of view than I did in Secret Santa" conversation, where I'm looking at the paragraph she's written and can't actually tell what conclusion it's supposed to be coming to. But it's not like this is only a problem I have with bessie's posts, so it might just be my own reading comprehension - it's just that's not often happened in this game with anyone else.

I don't get this with bessie normally, so either she's playing differently from normal or I'm just not as good at reading as normal. I've admittedly been exhausted from work half the time I've been posting in this game but I wouldn't have thought that would have affected it so much.

Conclusion: I might not exactly like bessie's posts but it's not enough to base a scum case on. Will need to remind myself of other players' posts and see if I was unjustified in placing them as townier than her.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:59 pm UTC

Picking up where I left off, we see bessie spend a lot of time responding to comments by a whole range of people. I think her responses are all quite reasonable, especially with those directed at LaserGuy. Also, her explanation re. why the lynch-pool limiting seemed off is reasonable, now that I've got to it. However, I thought I'd go back and look at the context around this a bit more, and the thing that stood out to me was that I put my ordered list of likely buddies with PW BEFORE bessie made this post and this post where she continues to hold this line, despite LaserGuy being third on that list, and her being less likely than three of the PW voters. Not sure which of stubborn/scum/not-reading-properly!bessie this could be, but ignoring the summary seemed a little odd to me, especially given that she had already responded to later content by the time she posted her suspicions further.

I feel okay about her read on cemper. It does seem fairly balanced. Unfortunately, she doesn't draw conclusions in that post (although she has said elsewhere that it takes time for her to digest and come to conclusions), which makes it hard to judge at that point whether her final conclusion is justified. I also completely understand her vote on LaserGuy, as her points there are very valid. Similarly, I think I can at least see where she's coming from with her BoomFrog vote.

Approaching deadline, we get to bessie's self-admittance that she is tunnelling hard, and essentially ignoring everybody outside BoomFrog, Madge, and LaserGuy (aside from the noted read of cemper, which was requested by another player). I am going to look back at a couple of recent town!bessie games to see if this was how hard she tunnelled before, to the detriment of looking at anybody else, because I don't remember it ever being quite this extreme. And that brings us to the deadline, with little else of note during D2's content that I felt worth commenting on. What I would like to comment on though are two glaring omissions: 1) she never came back to my analysis of PW-buddies. Essentially the last she said about me and this topic was the above highlighted points. 2) she never actually posted a real conclusion on cemper, although he did appear midway down her ordered list, which I guess is a conclusion of sorts.

I will do D3 and D4 content when I update my reads tomorrow. Off to reread some recent bessie games for context.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:18 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I am going to look back at a couple of recent town!bessie games to see if this was how hard she tunnelled before, to the detriment of looking at anybody else, because I don't remember it ever being quite this extreme..
Check X-men.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:03 pm UTC

Results from skimming some recent bessie games (I'm not going to do Crossover, or Shakespeare III for hopefully obvious reasons).

Werewolf of Wall Street: D1 - Tunnelled town!PW (who was lynched D1). Asked a few questions of a limited number of people. Responded to things from various people. Posted reads list with detail on all players towards end of D1. D2 - starts off tunnelling me, moves onto wam following her tracker result claim. Also asks questions of other players. No clear opinions on the majority of players at end of D2. D3, with lots of claims to discuss, the game situation changed, so I don't think it's relevant here.

Fridge Mafia: D1 - No serious indication of tunnelling initially, but does kind of start on plytho as the day goes on (plytho flipped as a mafia recruit after being lynched D1). Responses to a range of players, but very few questions overall. Full reads list with detail on all players during D1. D2, no indication of tunnelling, comments on several players, and a full reads list with reasoning. Mass claim D3 again changes the game situation significantly.

X-Men: D1 - Big reads post, although lacking conclusions initially (fixed with ordered list in next post). Questions and comments addressing pretty much every player. No sign of tunnelling D1. D2 - starts tunneling heuristically_alone (although offers to switch to voting somitomi), and does also show dislike towards Sabrar. Prods multiple people later in the day, but otherwise mostly focusing on HA and Sabrar. Ends up switching to lynch survivor!somitomi, to ensure no NL. D3 - ends up in big discussion with Sabrar early, although acknowledges he is town. Discussion is solely about Sabrar's plans, and disagrees with some of the premise behind them (HA's alignment). No real clear indication of tunnelling, although accepts that her reads might be accurate. Eventually, after much discussion about The Plan, bessie starts prodding various players for thoughts.

@Sabrar - I don't consider bessie's ongoing conversation with you discussing a plan as tunnelling, as it was about a strategic play, rather than a belief in somebody's alignment, although whilst having it, I acknowledge that bessie said almost nothing about lots of people.

As an aside, there's a really interesting post by bessie on her own tunnelling here. Unfortunately, by the simple fact that she made this post, she is self-aware enough to know what she should do as scum, in theory, so it doesn't actually provide any useful insight into a game where she might be scum.

To round off, I also did scum!bessie from Secret Santa 2017: D1 - plenty of comments and questions directed at a range of players. There's an ordered list, but no reads on people early-ish. There's a hint of a tunnel on Madge. No reads list. D2 - Madge tunnel continues. Makes a reads list (but only after I mentioned that she hadn't said much about 3 of the 9 other players), and updates it a bit later in the day. Interactions are quite diverse. D3 - Madge tunnel continues. Interactions initially kept to just with Madge, later with Sabrar, eventually broadening out to other players. Detailed reads of players individually.

Conclusion: I didn't get any strong evidence either way. If I had more time, I might look back at bessie's other scum games for more data points, along with a few more town games. About the biggest point I could bring up is that scum!bessie in SS2017 didn't post a proper reads list until D2, and then only after buddy!jimbob had prodded her for one in-thread. I never asked bessie whether she made it because I prodded her about it or not. In this game, she's also acknowledged that she hasn't made such a reads list, but this time, hasn't corrected that subsequently. This might be due to the pace of the game being significantly faster than most other games that I looked at (if somebody fancies looking to see what she did in Crossover, they're welcome). My general feeling is that even when tunnelling, bessie usually avoids keeping her comments confined to one specific player, although usually this only comes in the read post format. In this game, this hasn't been the case at all, which is noteworthy, and might indicate a different alignment from usual (i.e. scum), but could just be because of the size of the game.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:07 am UTC

Some random thoughts, and responses to P35 content I missed because busy tunneling jimbob. :P

Noting so my position is clear: Hari Seldon is currently a solid town read for me, and I will not vote for him. I’m willing to reevaluate on D5 after we see some flips.

MasterOfAll wrote:bessie: I have strong town feelings about her. The 20% is mostly because there is always the chance a player is scum but really good at playing a strong town game.
I don’t want to bog you down with a lot of meta, there’s enough content to keep up with just in this game, but I’m pretty townie, even as scum. My last town game was Halloween and my last scum game was Secret Santa 2017 if you want a comparison.

MasterOfAll wrote:jimbobmacdoodle: I feel like he led the lynch on Madge on D2 knowing it was a bandwagon others would get behind, and this stopped there being any serious consideration of other targets.
I think that this is not really accurate. Madge soft claimed a power role to save herself from being lynched on D1 (and she wasn’t), and she has a scummy meta and replaced someone with a scummy meta, so her lynch didn’t really need much bandwagoning.

BoomFrog wrote: The lack of scummyness among all players in general means we cleared someone D1 who was scum.
This is related to the point I have been trying to make about the Peaceful Whale wagon since D2. There’s been a lot of clearing based on voting evidence, townslips, and meta reads. I think the way the PW wagon was used to auto-clear half the field was wrong, and I’ve been arguing about it for the past twenty pages. Do where does this lead me?

Peaceful Whale voters : 3 town (BoomFrog, Sabrar, somitomi) + 2 undetermined (flicky1991, Hari Seldon)
Non Peaceful Whale voters: 2 town (Madge, Vicarin) + 1 scum (Peaceful Whale) + 4 undetermined (cemper93, LaserGuy, bessie, jimbobmacdoodle)
Players cleared on town slips: flicky1991, cemper93, probably others at various times by various people I don’t want to do a reread just to dig them all out
Players cleared on meta read: bessie, maybe others see above
Players lynched for meta reasons: Madge (at least in part)
*Players lynched because they were acting scummy in this game: Peaceful Whale

I feel like there has been too much emphasis in this game placed on clearing, slips, etc like outlined above, and that I am the only one interested in trying to dissect the content posted in this game for itself. But I will note (again) that I don’t generally do behavior-type cases or use meta as the basis of a read, only as supporting information, and I’m certainly not the strongest scum hunter in this game, so meh. I’m a quality engineer, where a gut feeling may determine a starting point but any conclusion is worthless without objective evidence to back it up.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@bessie/BoomFrog - did scum!cemper ever show indication of gambits involving asking mods fake questions in order to look better with a future plan?
I was just reminded of this question I asked bessie and BoomFrog, when I saw bessie's response saying she doesn't remember (that's fine - it was quite a while ago). Since BoomFrog was in full-on barking mode at that point, I don't think he ever responded.
Sorry I didn’t mean to ignore this. I didn’t play much with cemper, there used to be multiple games running at the same time and we weren’t in too many together. He played a lot in my pre-player lurking phase so I read a lot of his games, but our overlap was when I was still being very selective and only signing up for newbie friendly games. I have a from-memory impression that he was a very good, competent player, and I remember (without rereading so could be wrong) that he was the only one reading the situation at the end of Smalltown correctly and he doubted Madge for the right reasons, and that Smalltown was the last game he played here. I remember no other specifics.

I think that analyzing any content related to Peaceful Whale is going to be a waste of time until we have another flip, town or scum.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I wrote that bit of the post, around the point where I got to here in your posts, so I think I was unduly influenced by the fact that that post had a big chunk dedicated to completely irrelevant dog talk.
Some of that dog talk was game content if you read it right, but don’t waste any more time. Any implicit commentary on BoomFrog is now irrelevant as he is confirmed town.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:On 3/10 posts, my feeling was that it was not unreasonable for somebody stung by it in a previous game to have the idea stuck in their head to be suspicious around you. Keep in mind that it wasn't the only content in those posts, so whilst it might have been something like 3/10 posts, it was probably less than 5% of his content (random number picked out of thin air - I haven't actually counted somitomi's amount of content, but it wasn't dominated by this issue).
The percentage of total content wasn’t as important as the number of posts somitomi mentioned it, like he just stuck in a little occasional reminder to make sure everyone didn’t forget I’m townie as scum. On N1 I was considering ending every one of my D2 posts with “Oh, and get BoomFrog” or the like. It would have been less than 1% of my total content, but would have signaled my intent loud and clear in 100% of my posts.

flicky1991 wrote:I'm really finding it hard to tell what's up with bessie. I find her posts hard to read not just in a town-or-scum sense, but just in terms of working out what her point is. I think the "fluff" I was seeing before was just not understanding half her post and therefore dismissing it as unimportant, when probably I should have just been asking her. I'm thinking of things like the "I have a different point of view than I did in Secret Santa" conversation, where I'm looking at the paragraph she's written and can't actually tell what conclusion it's supposed to be coming to. But it's not like this is only a problem I have with bessie's posts, so it might just be my own reading comprehension - it's just that's not often happened in this game with anyone else.
No it’s not you, it’s my style. moody got it and commented on it years ago, that my style is implicit and not direct. I’m really not good at direct, as already stated I’m not good at building a case, I just look for content that doesn’t sit right with me and I pick at it. And I never even considered that I might be hard to read until Crossover. I’m so often correctly read as town, and I thought I was just easy to read. Then in Crossover there were a lot of players that didn’t know me, and :o GASP, weren’t reading me as town, what was up with that??? Are they all scum, are they challenging my meta??? :shock: Nope, none of them were scum.

I need to take a break before I tackle another argument about my meta. And I need to go to the supermarket. Will respond to jimbob later.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:54 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar - I don't consider bessie's ongoing conversation with you discussing a plan as tunnelling, as it was about a strategic play, rather than a belief in somebody's alignment, although whilst having it, I acknowledge that bessie said almost nothing about lots of people.
I tried to refer to something completely different. In X-Men she found heury scummy right from the start (IIRC) and pushed his lynch whenever she could.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Suzaku » Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:57 am UTC

Current Votals:

jimbobmacdoodle - 3 (Hari Seldon, Sabrar, flicky1991)
flicky1991 - 1 (LaserGuy)

Not voting: bessie, BoomFrog, jimbobmacdoodle, MasterOfAll

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
Deadline in about 35 hours.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:14 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: However, I thought I'd go back and look at the context around this a bit more, and the thing that stood out to me was that I put my ordered list of likely buddies with PW BEFORE bessie made this post and this post where she continues to hold this line, despite LaserGuy being third on that list, and her being less likely than three of the PW voters. Not sure which of stubborn/scum/not-reading-properly!bessie this could be, but ignoring the summary seemed a little odd to me, especially given that she had already responded to later content by the time she posted her suspicions further.
Your distancing from your initial D2 post here:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Completely agree that if flicky is town, then everybody else on PW's wagon is almost certainly town too, so that's BoomFrog, Sabrar, Hari, and somitomi (who as pointed out is confirmed town at this point). The case is much less clear cut if flicky is scum, but I do believe him to be town, as stated earlier, so my focus today will be on the other 4 players.
could be an attempt at damage control mode, after I posted this :
bessie wrote:Hmm, interesting, unlike you jimbobmacdoodle considers my non-vote on Peaceful Whale to be more important than all my D1 content. But he did consider LaserGuy’s earlier content to be more important than LaserGuy’s non-vote on Peaceful Whale. Guess he needed to find an excuse to kick LaserGuy out of his lynch pool.
Interesting that you still managed to place Madge and cemper at the top of your lynch list. Hmmm, we might be at 4/2 before we even got to LaserGuy.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Approaching deadline, we get to bessie's self-admittance that she is tunnelling hard, and essentially ignoring everybody outside BoomFrog, Madge, and LaserGuy (aside from the noted read of cemper, which was requested by another player). I am going to look back at a couple of recent town!bessie games to see if this was how hard she tunnelled before, to the detriment of looking at anybody else, because I don't remember it ever being quite this extreme.
Carlington in Diablo? Plytho in Crossover? Madge in Draculafia? Madge in everything?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: If I had more time, I might look back at bessie's other scum games for more data points, along with a few more town games.
Wine, but I think this would be a waste of time. First of all, you aren’t going to have enough scum data points, and the ones you have aren’t trustworthy. WoT1 had issues (the newbie, kalira dropping out, and RL issue I was reminded of when I skimmed this and saw my spoiler in the end, BessieDog was dying so I was playing poorly). SS2015 I replaced on D3. Smalltown is too far removed in time and space.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: About the biggest point I could bring up is that scum!bessie in SS2017 didn't post a proper reads list until D2, and then only after buddy!jimbob had prodded her for one in-thread. I never asked bessie whether she made it because I prodded her about it or not. In this game, she's also acknowledged that she hasn't made such a reads list, but this time, hasn't corrected that subsequently. This might be due to the pace of the game being significantly faster than most other games that I looked at (if somebody fancies looking to see what she did in Crossover, they're welcome).
Crossover I had a lot of difficulty producing reads lists due to content overload, and was always under suspicion for it. Wine again, but the rate at which these games are growing is making it very difficult to produce a good thorough read on every player every day. There used to be an average of maybe 2-4 pages of new content every game day? In the past producing a good complete reads list on D2 with ten other players and 6 pages total content took me about 2-3 hours. Now I’m spending 2-3 hours a night on this game just keeping up. I’m not a particularly organized or fast thinker like some of the others in this game. I keep notes because I have to. So I think if you analyze your data, you’ll find that the changes in my posting style correlate with the lengthening games.

Hi Sabrar, are you annoyed with being confirmed town? Do you miss arguing with me me me over your questionable reads like in X-men? Or are you enjoying the view from the Ivory Tower with Boomfrog?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:30 am UTC

bessie wrote:Hi Sabrar, are you annoyed with being confirmed town? Do you miss arguing with me me me over your questionable reads like in X-men? Or are you enjoying the view from the Ivory Tower with Boomfrog?
Just because I'm confirmed shouldn't stop you from arguing about my horrendous reads. :D
Also may I say that sheeping really does not suit you. I would be quite suspicious of you were it not for other factors.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:00 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:The only point I disagree with you strongly is the possibility of a {jimbob,LaserGuy} scum-team, which unfortunately would lead us to a loss if we follow your plan. Could you explain it in more detail?
@BoomFrog: did you miss this?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:40 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Sabrar wrote:The only point I disagree with you strongly is the possibility of a {jimbob,LaserGuy} scum-team, which unfortunately would lead us to a loss if we follow your plan. Could you explain it in more detail?
@BoomFrog: did you miss this?

I thought I'd answered. Maybe I only planned on answering really hard and forgot to actually do it. Anyway, I trust your town read of MoA more then my not team read of laser and JimBob. I'm fine with lynching those two and Flicky in almost any order. I'd like to start with Flicky since I think he's the most likely of the three.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:47 pm UTC

@JimBob: Your long posts listing summaries of other content are really not useful to read through for others imo. In the interest of keeping content manageable I'd suggest leaving them in spoilers or even just in your private notes. I think this actually goes for a lot of your analysis and content. I really only want to read a short list of what you thought was important or worth highlighting. Analysing everything is showing almost as little discretion as analysing nothing.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:45 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I'm fine with lynching those two and Flicky in almost any order.
We're in agreement here. I'm still stuck on jimbob.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:48 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@JimBob: Your long posts listing summaries of other content are really not useful to read through for others imo. In the interest of keeping content manageable I'd suggest leaving them in spoilers or even just in your private notes. I think this actually goes for a lot of your analysis and content. I really only want to read a short list of what you thought was important or worth highlighting. Analysing everything is showing almost as little discretion as analysing nothing.
Sorry BoomFrog, I find typing things out really helps me think. I don't keep notes, because basically my thoughts and feelings only come as I try to present them to other people (it's why I sometimes forget why I asked something specific). I don't normally do in-depth rereads of old content, either from earlier games or earlier in the game, aside from what you see me do in my reads lists. In this case, I felt bessie's content warranted an in-depth analysis in particular, because I felt like I hadn't given her enough attention all game. I don't feel like I simply summarised content either. I actually posted and commented on only the bits that I found relevant to forming an opinion, and since there was commentary, I didn't spoiler it (I usually reserve spoilers for notes that aren't relevant to others). I did try to gather my key points together in the conclusion at the end. Basically, any time I do a big analysis of someone, whether it be a read or otherwise, I usually put together a summary/conclusion at the end, so if you don't have time to read a wall, skip to the ending paragraph, and then go back if anything isn't clear from it.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:56 pm UTC

I didn't expect to get home as late as I have, today...
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Feb 04, 2018 6:11 pm UTC

LaserGuy has way too much content to do a full re-read but I still don't see him as scum from flicking through. He's been pushing people for reads, analysing properly, he's not been focusing too much on particular players...

For today I am definitely much happier with a jimbob lynch than with anyone else.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:02 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Also may I say that sheeping really does not suit you. I would be quite suspicious of you were it not for other factors.
Woof? Where am I sheeping? All my reads are my own. Woof woof.

Sabrar, does jimbob’s in-depth analysis of me remind you of something?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:20 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Spoiler:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@bessie/BoomFrog - did scum!cemper ever show indication of gambits involving asking mods fake questions in order to look better with a future plan?
I was just reminded of this question I asked bessie and BoomFrog, when I saw bessie's response saying she doesn't remember (that's fine - it was quite a while ago). Since BoomFrog was in full-on barking mode at that point, I don't think he ever responded.

@BoomFrog, would you mind answering the above question, if you can remember. It's interesting because I asked this question regarding cemper's D1 question regarding sanities, but if he has shown this tendency in the past, this would be a strong point against treating the D2 confusion about day/night chat as alignment indicative, and removes one of the major reasons I have him as townie. Also, scum!cemper or a buddy might have seen my comment and actually gone ahead with it. Not really convincing myself with this reasoning though.

Rereading bessie (in much more detail than cemper or flicky, due to now having plenty of time), and I see some interesting things. Firstly, and I think I've said this before, there's quite a bit of fluff in her posts D1. It's not at the exclusion of other content though, but it does make it seem like she's posting more than she actually is. That being said, I don't think it's actually more than I usually see from her, but I'm not certain.

Another thing that stood out to me early on was her vote on somitomi. The stated reasons for it are not good:
bessie wrote:I’ve called people scummy for auto slapping a town label on me, and you can expect the same from me if you try to use my townie meta coupled with one successful game as mafia to slap a suspicious label on me. If you’re suspicious of me, fine, vote for me, but you better back it up with some analysis from this game.
I agree with the principle of what she's saying in general terms, but somitomi actually states that he believes she is town, just has doubts due to recent experience. That's not suspicious, that's just having healthy doubts about someone who he knows can look townie despite being scum. If he'd starting pushing it, that would be a different matter, but the only other apparent evidence of this line of thought was what I interpreted as a joke, saying "TRUST NO-ONE". Other issues with somitomi's content are fine, but maybe a little stretched (e.g. sleepgate-related comments), but aren't the overriding reason, just one reason, as indicated by the fact that in her subsequent post-by-post breakdown of somitomi's content rehighlighting some things. I find it particularly interesting that whilst it's true, somitomi did repeat the joke, it was hardly the sole thing he talked about, or even a significant minority of his content. In another player, I'd read this as pretty strongly scummy, but from bessie, who is at least sensitive about her townie meta, and is known for tunnelling hard, I struggle to decide if it's indicative of scum!bessie.

Also, I don't feel like bessie pushed PW anywhere near as much as I remember her doing so. Sure, she found sleepgate suspicious, and apparently the fact that he was copying her, but it's not as aggressive as I remember her being about it. The fact that she ended up going after first somitomi (only unvoting him after his claim), and then Madge (saying she wouldn't trust any claim from her and would still keep her vote there, even if there were a claim close to deadline) don't look good in light of PW's scum flip (and somitomi's and Madge's town flips), considering she apparently had PW labelled as scum for most of the Day. I know she later explained this, as wanting to save obv-scum for later, but this feels really a stretch. Conclusion from this: I don't think I can stand by my main reason for having bessie in the {almost certainly town, but I'm wrong about one of them} group, which implies that there's a good chance she's scum.

One other D1 thing: I noted midway through the day that she wasn't commenting on a number of players at all, and recalled noticing this same thing in Secret Santa. I don't really have the time now, but might later in the weekend, skim some of her other recent games to see how much she interacted with the whole range of players. Especially interesting is that despite this, she still barely said anything about most players through D1, only giving an ordered list at one point, with no reasoning attached (aside from that posted about her existing scum reads).

Not sure what to make of this observation, but bessie is posting a lot of meta reads, consciously aware that she doesn't usually do these kind of reads.

Moving onto D2. Here's bessie's post-hoc justification I mentioned above, for never voting Peaceful Whale:
bessie wrote:My evaluation was that if Peaceful Whale was scum, he would be fairly obvious, so if there is another fairly strong candidate, it would make sense to leave the obvious candidate for later. Also, I don’t think that Peaceful Whale would be as dangerous to leave alive as say, scum!Madge.
This just sounds weird, because she had PW as scum most of D1, implying that she thought he was fairly obvious, not that he would become fairly obvious later. Note the subtle difference there - either 1) she didn't really have much confidence that PW was scum, but thought he might become clearer as the game went on (which doesn't really add up given that he was second-likeliest scum in both her lists), or 2) scum!bessie early D1 felt like he would become obvious as scum, and therefore she needed to distance herself. I admit, I'm probably over-stretching this wording issue, but I'm interested to hear what other people think of this. Her explanation for her vote being on Madge day end is reasonable in and of itself.

Having noted bessie's earlier votes on somitomi and Madge, I now see her with BoomFrog in her scum-group. Another confirmed-townie? Even if you accept that bessie's opinion on PW was genuine, that leaves her wrong in 3 out of her 4 scummiest reads during the course of D1 and D2. Also, she had said basically nothing about BoomFrog up to the point where she posted her updated list. Her midway-through-D1 opinion on him was "wise dog", and given that the list she made labelling that appeared to be ordered, he slipped an awfully long way with basically no comment from her. As pointed out by flicky, bessie's logic on finding LaserGuy and I suspicious for halving the lynch pool, and limiting it to a pool including ourselves seems weirdly thought-out - "It is beneficial to scum to narrow the pool to a pool that doesn’t contain scum" contradicts her own theory, since that was precisely not the case in her theory. Her case on BoomFrog eventually shows up, several posts into the day, and it's okay, although hardly definitively-must-come-from-town.

I'm going to need to leave this re-read here, part way into D2, since I need to get to bed, given an early start tomorrow. As I'm sure is clear, I'm not feeling happy about bessie's D1 and early D2 content. However, I'm concerned that I may be unintentionally tunnelling, so a break might help me recalibrate and get a more balanced view, if I'm out-of-line.


I made a similar case on bessie back in D2. At the time you felt is was very unlikely as you didn't believe that bessie would be bussing PW. Why do you feel differently now?

I'd probably move back to jimbob, except it will put him at L-1 and I'd rather not have a self-hammer. I get a strong vibe of scum desperation from him ATM.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:30 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I made a similar case on bessie back in D2. At the time you felt is was very unlikely as you didn't believe that bessie would be bussing PW. Why do you feel differently now?
I said this earlier. I was basing my trust in my bessie read on how much bessie pushed PW, yet when I looked back, she didn't push PW anywhere near as much as I thought she had. She pushed others, assuming scum!PW, but not PW himself as much.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:42 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Where am I sheeping?
The italicized parts in these two posts and some of the surrounding text feel like sheeping to me (not in the sense that you're agreeing with confirmed town but in the way that you want to influence their view on you (similar to what you accused BoomFrog here)). There are also some parts in other posts when you're talking about me me me but I'm finding it hard to separate the personal from the business there.

bessie wrote:does jimbob’s in-depth analysis of me remind you of something?
It did not specifically. I would assume you are referring to SS17 here but I don't think this is necessary alignment-indicative. jimbob is quite capable of going hard into details as either alignment. Please specify if there's more to this in your opinion.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:13 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Where am I sheeping?
The italicized parts in these two posts and some of the surrounding text feel like sheeping to me (not in the sense that you're agreeing with confirmed town but in the way that you want to influence their view on you (similar to what you accused BoomFrog here)). There are also some parts in other posts when you're talking about me me me but I'm finding it hard to separate the personal from the business there.
Sorry Sabrar, I didn’t mean to be confusing. But I guess I wasn't trying to be clear either. The italicized parts were something I was just amusing myself with, and the words just happened fit my thoughts and feelings about BoomFrog perfectly.

Doesn’t Sabrar know the price that I have to pay
Just to do everything I have to do
Does he think that there's nothing to it
He should try it sometime
When Sabrar comes down
From his Ivory Tower
He will see how it really must be
To be like me
To see like me
To feel like me


Van the Man


Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:does jimbob’s in-depth analysis of me remind you of something?
It did not specifically. I would assume you are referring to SS17 here but I don't think this is necessary alignment-indicative. jimbob is quite capable of going hard into details as either alignment. Please specify if there's more to this in your opinion.
jimbob’s in-depth analysis of my meta reminds me of Sabrar’s in-depth analysis of Madge’s meta in Crossover. It was interesting as a case study but contributed little to the game. And as Sabrar himself admitted, it was purposely not the most productive use of his very limited time.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:22 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Van the Man
Thanks for the context.

bessie wrote:jimbob’s in-depth analysis of my meta reminds me of Sabrar’s in-depth analysis of Madge’s meta in Crossover. It was interesting as a case study but contributed little to the game. And as Sabrar himself admitted, it was purposely not the most productive use of his very limited time.
Fun fact: I only started to defend Madge because I was sure that it was required of town!me. It only occurred to me later that the only person who could have called me out on it was BoomFrog who I simply could have asked in scum-chat not to do it. :)

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:45 pm UTC

bessie wrote:And as Sabrar himself admitted, it was purposely not the most productive use of his very limited time.
Clarification required: are you saying Sabrar had very limited time, or saying that he said that I had very limited time? FWIW, this weekend I've had plenty of time, otherwise I wouldn't have attempted that analysis (it might be my first time I've actually gone back to look at past games).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:49 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Regarding my lurking:
Work became terribly busy otherwise I would have participated a lot more (anyone scum-reading me because of less content than usual should be aware that I post the same amount as any alignment so this is completely irl-dependent). With that said EGW and LaserGuy were totally right in their observations that I used my time less efficiently as if I were Town.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:05 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Clarification required: are you saying Sabrar had very limited time, or saying that he said that I had very limited time? FWIW, this weekend I've had plenty of time, otherwise I wouldn't have attempted that analysis (it might be my first time I've actually gone back to look at past games).
jimbob, I’m implying that you are, in analyzing my meta, perhaps not using your time to the greatest purpose, as it is quite time consuming, and only marginally useful for reasons outlined by me in this post. Similar to what Sabrar did with Madge in Crossover, where he was spending hours on his Madge read as a form of active lurking.

Sorry, I misremembered Sabrar’s quote, and should have looked it up. I remembered it as being more specific about using so much time on the Madge meta-read, I guess my puppy brain extrapolated the meaning I wanted it to have.

Of course me saying this is wine, so if you have the time continue as you wish.

Ninja’d by Sabrar with the exact quote to which I was referring.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:11 pm UTC

Thank you bessie. I figured that was what you were implying, but wasn't certain. I don't think I would have used my time any differently had I not done the analysis I did, other than to do the read list I'm currently working on in part yesterday evening. And probably wouldn't have done much today instead, as I have other RL things I could be getting on with. I don't plan on meta-reading you any further, due to this though.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:54 pm UTC

Reads list time. In alphabetical order.

bessie: previously 3rd scummiest.
Spoiler:
Reiterates her point about me limiting lynch pool. Responds to Sabrar ping on bessie. Thinks scum!BF would not have joined chat initially if pre-decided to woof, to make partner reactions natural. Thinks would only woof if a partner could play along, citing herself, moody, Sabrar, maybe me or LG as examples. Reduces chance of scum!BF since likely partners are all town. Analyses D1 vote wagons with reference to BF. scum!BF bussing hard for town cred or protecting partner. Bothered by conviction of Madge secret townie club read, narrowing lynch pool, buddying of Sabrar, dismissive of her. A few comments on PW interactions, creates possibilties of HS/BF/LG? with PW. Still doesn't understand Sabrar's ping. Explains efforts in rereading BF. Asks flicky why he has her as scummiest.

Notes that she's looking for two scum. Doesn't understand Sabrar's suspicions. States that there was very little fluff in her posts and that flicky should read it all. Fed up with people finding her as scum for helping newbies. Has BF, LG as top scummiest, HS towniest of non-confirmed. Backs down on theory that BF unlikely to be scum re. woof gambit and not joining chat. Notes LG giving HS town cred for tunnelling, but bessie scum cred. Unhappy with my push for LG to claim. Notes BF change in attitude to D1 vote wagon results. Doesn't care for BF's vote analysis, due to him ignoring other content. Votes BoomFrog. Thinks he might be fishing for a lynch target. Says she didn't overreact to LG's case. Considering possibility of me + LG. Agrees with LG's case on BF, but notes that she made most of the same points already. Supports No Lynch, since no counter-claim expected.

D4. Would prefer HS to keep playing. Asks about self-targeting. Would have killed BF. Current situation is worst-case for scum. Doesn't think they withheld, because they killed somitomi and aren't afraid of being seen, but they might have targeted Sabrar, anyway. Points out that scum might not have been able to counter-claim BoomFrog. Trying to be subtle with her answer, and thinks LG is trying to turn the discussion away from a situation where he is suspicious. Points out various reasons why scum might have killed BF. Counter-claim by scum likely would have resulted in doctor lynch. Asks MoA for ordered list. Thinks LG's case on her was written witten with an objective, and everything was interpreted in that light. Confused by my confusion re. her "super scummy one" comment. Deliberately being ambiguous re. Sabrar's sanity for town's benefit. Continues to back her stance re. lynching Madge D1 ahead of PW. Suspicious that walls of text are not scum hunting, but active lurking.

Thinks that there is a good possibility of naive Sabrar, but good play by scum to still avoid being seen. Thinks N3 kill indicates cautious player. I am her primary suspect, because of non-death of confirmed doctor BoomFrog. Suspicious of LG unrelated to night kill. Can't fit kill together with somitomi-kill. Thinks LG or cemper could have killed somitomi, and MoA replacement explains. Thinks about my possible buddies, and notes me not considering myself a cautious scum player. Disagrees with my points against her. Broods about helping newbies. Hari Seldon is solid town read. Responds to MoA comments. Disagrees with MoA over me leading Madge's bandwagon. Thinks she's the only one interested in dissecting content. Thinks analysing PW content waste of time without another flip. Thinks me distancing from my initial post D2 is damage control mode. Responds to a few of my other comments. Had difficulty in Crossover producing reads list.
I don't know what about bessie it is that really niggles me. As noted yesterday, and as pointed out by bessie, many of my main points against her could be because of the longer game, but I still feel like she has a reasonable chance of being scum. If she is scum, I think it most likely to be with Hari Seldon, mostly because I don't see her being buddies with LaserGuy, but I could consider a bessie/cemper team faintly plausible, given she doesn't say much about cemper or MoA's content.

I think she is misjudging how cautious I am as scum, basing it on our game together. The situation was quite different in that game. Both of us were being consistently town read throughout the game (I accidentally became near-confirmed town at one point!), and we were being cautious about accidentally killing ourselves, not about being detected by a watcher. This is wine, but I'm not sure if I'd have targeted Sabrar or somitomi, or neither, N2 as scum in this game, but given that somitomi was killed N2 (and Sabrar likely was naive), I think I'd have targeted BoomFrog N3, as BoomFrog would definitely would target Sabrar in my mind.

Anyway, back to bessie. My gut keeps telling me that this isn't normal bessie. I'm hoping that this is the indication that says that I can identify scum!bessie from usually-super-townie!bessie. Combine this with the PoE evidence, and I feel like she is probably scum, but am not certain.

@bessie - why do you have such a strong town read of Hari Seldon? What has he done in this game to warrant that read, especially recently?

BoomFrog: confirmed town.

cemper/MoA: previously 4th scummiest/fairly townie
Spoiler:
Lack of posts due to little time. Bottom three are flicky/BF/LG. Adds flicky buddying him to list of reasons to dislike flicky. Thinks he's trying to avoid a common scum tell. BF/LG not a team. Top town read is bessie. Considers my point about scum not worrying about being seen. Hadn't considered flicky's early somitomi mistake. Draws different conclusion from Sabrar re. his ping on bessie. Thinks BF would have gone ahead with woofs regardless of partners. Asks BF about scum being off PW train. Likes LG's post considering wagons and teams, but notes that LG was third on wagon of two townies. Thinks if LG is scum, me and Hari need looking at. Generally dislikes me due to being a viable buddy with everybody. If flicky is town, LG, HS look worse, BF better.

MoA content. Asks for brief summary. Thinks more to be learned from D1. Thinks unlikely scum bussed PW due to close vote. Thinks unlikely both scum voted for Madge. Concludes bessie might be scum with either me or LG. Doesn't put much stock in this analysis. Decides unfair on bessie, and accepts higher chance of clever scum on D1 wagon. Uncertain about me/LG as scum team, but thinks we are scummiest, due to votes on Madge and mutual attacks. Acknowledges chance of scum withholding NK, but can't think of good reason to. Has bessie and flicky as towniest, me and LG scummiest, but points are fairly evenly spread out. Has strong town feelings about bessie. Gut town-read of flicky. Thinks silly for scum!HS to be pro-NL D1. Less townie feel than on bessie or flicky. LG aggressiveness pings him. Scum feel on me from read through.
@MasterOfAll - can you explain what gives you strong town feelings about bessie? What about your scum feeling on me?

Due to cemper's absence, and MoA's illness, there's very little to go on here. Most of his justification for why he assigns people specific scores is due to general feeling, and I want him to clarify them some more. I find it particularly interesting that he does a vote analysis, but then completely throws it away apparently (aside from accusing me of leading the Madge lynch D2). cemper is showing signs of townieness, through things like his reconsideration of flicky's D2-opener after I pointed it out to him, but there's not much evidence from MoA to back this up/refute it either way. I still think overall that he is likely town, although as noted before, if LaserGuy is scum, MoA likely is too.

flicky: (previously probably town/towniest except for confirmed-town)
Spoiler:
Has no strong scum reads currently (early D3), needs to reread. Promises to come back to give examples of townie-point-of-view posts by LG/cemper. Picks up that bessie didn't consider Sabrar confirmed-town in BoomDog analysis (but also missed that she includes Vicarin in that list). Never follows up. Posts ordered list, bessie scummiest, LG towniest, apart from Sabrar. Gives reasons for finding LG/cemper town. Disagrees with a lot of what bessie said. Brings up interactions with PW as trying not to put all help in scum chat. Doesn't like Sabrar's logic leading to scum me. bessie seems frustrated. Rules out bessie/BF, BF/HS, HS/me. Not sure how to read bessie/HS. Me/bessie possible. BF/me plausible due to lack of comments on each other. Votes me for being in two most likely teams. Comments on my push for LG to claim. Responds to BF suggesting flicky/HS. Asks LG about bessie/me pairing. Asks bessie about who is partner with BF. Doesn't think LG is scum.

D4 - Suggests BF might have self-protected. Doesn't like the way I present my preferred scum candidates. Thinks Sabrar implied he is naive. Thinks bessie plus me likeliest. Repeats comments about bessie helping PW. LG towniest, me scummiest, votes me. Explains reads. Explains why she finds bessie's helping of PW a scum tell. Accepts might be pushing too hard. Asks LG about his flicky/me team. Still thinks MoA is townie. bessie on PW wasn't as bad as remembered. Also needs to reread Hari and reconsider likelihood of our pairing. Doesn't definitely think LG/MoA are town. Struggling to understand bessie's posts, and doesn't get this normally. Not enough to base a scum case on. Still doesn't see LG as scum on reread, due to analysis, pushing people for reads etc. Much happier with my lynch than anybody else.
@flicky - you highlighted bessie not treating Sabrar as confirmed town on D3, but she never responded and you never followed up on this. A) Why did you not follow up, and b), what were your thoughts when you asked this question?
Also @flicky, obviously I can't prove this until after I flip, but you are going to need to come up with two scum suspects from the rest of the players if I get lynched, so you might as well get working on those now, rather than just sitting on your laurels. Who do you think is my buddy now?
flicky1991 wrote:jimbob - has made statements I found weird
What statements, aside from my theory on scum being one of two and one of three, have you found weird from me?

There isn't much to chew on in flicky's posts. I am concerned that he isn't really making much effort to evaluate his reads further, and has simply, incorrectly, parked himself on me. I like that he comes back to things he promises to. My feeling is that he might have not done some things, such as team analysis. My read of him being townie has very strong, and I'm not seeing anything significant enough to dissuade me otherwise.

Hari Seldon: (previously mixed feelings/second scummiest by PoE)
Spoiler:
Was going back-and-forth on voting flicky or PW. Felt flicky was likely a mislynch, PW was an unkown. Thinks (incorrectly) that I am trying to draw a contradiction in his behaviour, and points out cases were different. Explains difference. Finds it strange that I didn't vote PW, to prevent NL. Doesn't believe my reasoning for being willing to vote him/cemper/Madge close to D1 deadline. Thinks I was willing to go down the unclaimed route. Gets strong town vibe from bessie's comment about PW slip. Thinks buddy!bessie would have found PW's post suspicious. Asks BF how he knew he'd vote for PW. Asks him about his town read on me. Surprised that BF thinks scum!me would not fake town reads. More beneficial for town for scummy players to post lots. Disagrees that he's been hanging back. Strong scum read on LG. Wants to understand BF reads better. Wants cemper to do player analysis assuming town!flicky. Wants flicky's re-evaluation. Wants his posts to be meaningful. Disagrees with BF over scum!me behaviour. Looking less likely that LG and I are both scum. Confused by BF putting me in bottom 3 when arguing town!me. Finds BF scummy for not getting that he is experienced. Disagrees with BF logic over Sabrar faking a result. Had LG as scummiest earlier in D3, due to Sabrar's play, but less certain now. Thinks BF not trying to read him. D3 been focused on finding LG's buddy. Maintains LG as best play for the day. Votes LG, following BF claim. Interacts with town reads less. Thinks I've twice tried to lynch him when he wasn't around.

D4. Votes me, without explanation. Town vibes from LG deadline posts. Changed opinion on him overnight. Thought likely MoA!doctor would be killed. Gut says LG lynch would have been mislynch. LG might still be scum. My postings give strong sense of agenda. Raises points such as me justifying my reads, rather than coming to them through reasoning. Misrepresents/misremembers what I said about Hari/Laser scum versus others. Does not believe my explanations for end of D1 voting pattern. Says I was fishing for a cemper lynch. Says there is a contradiction in thought in my stance on co-ordinating targets. Wants me to explain why I believe one scum is in one group, and the other in the other. Brings up my town conclusion on him versus 2nd scummiest positioning. Explains bessie meta point, but is very weak. Asks me why I asked bessie about lynching an unclaimed. Continues to find suspicious that I directed who to target, but does not explain no kill. Says context of directions does not do away with contradiction in thinking. Points out incorrectness in LG PW-read analysis. Continues to disbelieve my explanation, saying it wasn't consistent with timing and actions.
Urrghh... I'm really getting annoyed with Hari's case on me. It reminds me a lot of some of my early games with scum!Sabrar, when whenever Sabrar tried to accuse me of being scum, and presented his case, it all just read wrong to me. Don't get me wrong, there are certainly legitimate reasons to find me scummy, but Hari's are not well-founded in my opinion. He's spent most of his time D4 (up to his last post on Wednesday - lurking much?) arguing with me over this, and hasn't said anything about who my scum buddies are. This last point is particularly noticeable given he said he spent most of D3 trying to find scum!LG's buddy, yet apparently has done nothing of the sort D4 for me. I feel like a lot of what he's said about me is borderline misrepresentation, and the rest is definitely a case of refusing to acknowledge any of the points I've raised to explain my actions. This is either extreme tunnelling or scum. I didn't like some of his early play for similar reasons either. My theory is that over the last couple of days he's trying to push whoever he thinks will be easiest to do. I'm pretty confident that Hari is scum.

@Hari Seldon - who are my scum buddies?

@everybody else - far too many people are giving Hari a free pass, it seems to me. Assuming I get lynched today, please go back at the case he has been pushing on me for most of the game, and see how it looks in light of my town flip. Better yet, go back and look at it again before I get lynched, please.

LaserGuy: (previously scummiest)
Spoiler:
Asks flicky for ordered list to give everybody feelings of where he's at. Wants him to explain why he is having trouble with scum reads. Evaluates wagons based on assumption that scum had planned to lynch flicky. Concludes that flicky is town, limits scum pairings down to four, and has me as being highest chance of being scum based on this, voting me. Asks me why I did my reads/analysis for D3 so early. Explains reasoning for certain teams. Confused by my argument against him, asks me to explain how it makes sense. Admits might have underestimated likelihood of cemper/BF. Continues explaining case on wagons. Asks BF to explain his case on him a bit more, and why he hasn't commented on me. Alarmed by my tone re. Sabrar's loaded question. Finds me agitated and defensive. Thinks scum between me, BF, toss-up between cemper and bessie. Doesn't see many plausible partners for HS. Reactions point to tunnelling by HS being townie. Thinks scum!Hari would have gotten more traction, or would have dropped it. Claims Sabrar has no result on me. Continues to prod BF re. town lean on me, and votes him. Asks me about my feelings with cemper being buddies with him. Thinks Sabrar should have not said anything, and gained nothing by his comments. Claims VT. Doesn't see any plausible pairing for town. Locked on me/BF. Says he'll have to revisit bessie if either flips town. Restates opinion of why finding her bad previously. Has concerns with her gameplay. Explains reasons for not me/bessie. Posts reads list. Has flicky/cemper very likely town, Hari likely town, unsure on bessie, and scum on me and BoomFrog. Explains cases on me and BF in quite some detail. I have no issues with his case on me, looking back (aside from it being wrong). Unvotes following BF claim, and basically gives up. Switches vote first to flicky, then changes to BF, in case of counterclaim.

D4. Asks bessie and Hari for thoughts about remarks from flicky and me respectively. Wants bessie to explain clearly why scum would be afraid of Sabrar's power. Thinks there was no reason for scum to counterclaim, since alt-wagon was twon. Votes bessie. Thinks counterclaim would have been bad idea for scum. Explains reasons for asking earlier questions, to do with belief of naivety etc. Finds it weird that I missed the conclusion of the related conversation. Concludes bessie is unaware that Sabrar's power is naive. Identifies optimal scum play as killing BF, but scum might not if scared of watcher, suggesting both scum believe Sabrar is not naive, suggesting bessie/MoA, bessie/me and me/MoA. Confused by why bessie and I are saying counter-claim might have been reasonable. Flicky sounds like wants to validate LG's read on him. Continues discussion with bessie re. not answering watcher questions. Flips vote onto me without explanation. Reread PW, incorrectly notes all reads are correct. Theorises this implies town!bessie, scum!flicky. Proposes flicky/me/PW, or flicky/cemper/PW, and switches to voting flicky. Reasonably certain on flicky. Thinks he's newbie scum. Wants reasons for flicky's evaluations. Explains more about significance of naivety comments, and related timing posts. Doesn't think cemper's tunnelling of flicky imply buddy play, and thinks more likely flicky's scum with me. Doesn't feel like flicky's opening post is a slip. Not putting much stock in votes today. Asks me what changed from my D2 read on bessie not bussing PW. Gets vibe of scum desperation from me.
Having read LaserGuy's D3 and early D4 content, I feel somewhat better about him, and now that the dust has settled, I feel like I was probably over-focused on him earlier. I like the thinking behind the vote analysis and how it links people together. I don't necessarily agree with all of it, but the general approach seems reasonable. I do find it a bit confusing how much he was jumping around earlier in the day with his vote (he jumped to me from bessie and then off me again, without actually explaining why again - yes I know this is how he is playing, but it's still confusing). Overall, I do feel like he's genuinely trying to figure the game out, rather than just choosing someone to be scum, and parking himself there. He is wrong about me though. Leaning town here now, but is still likely scum if Hari isn't*, simply because I'm not convinced by the other possible teams. *But I will re-evaluate this tomorrow if I'm still alive.

@LaserGuy, assuming I'm town, who are the scum team?

Sabrar: confirmed town. Plus 1 to the number of times that he's misread me.

Town
BoomFrog/Sabrar
flicky
MasterOfAll
LaserGuy
bessie
Hari Seldon
Scum

Vote bessie

I'd vote Hari, but he's probably gone by now, and it feels rude to lynch somebody who is away. I doubt I'll persuade anybody of his scumminess today either. I do not believe flicky is scum, but he has a greater chance of being scum than me, so if necessary, I will switch my vote (unless it would cause a NL, as we can't afford another one of those this day, I think), unless my flip will convince people about the bessie/Hari team?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:29 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:(unless it would cause a NL, as we can't afford another one of those this day, I think)
Why do you think so?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:43 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:(unless it would cause a NL, as we can't afford another one of those this day, I think)
Why do you think so?
At this point, I don't think another Day of conversation will likely change people's attitudes much. Unlike at the start of D4, when we had BoomFrog's and LaserGuy's claims to digest (and by implication, everybody else's), and the non-kill to discuss, I don't think we'll get much information today by No Lynching. I think lynching me at least gives my town flip for everybody to discuss in D5, along with vote analysis. I don't know what will happen with the night kill, but I'm assuming it'll be of somebody who gives town little/no information (i.e. you or BoomFrog), or will be withheld again. I could be persuaded otherwise though.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:52 pm UTC

Withholding the kill after we lynch anyone is a really dumb idea. I thought you analyzed the math earlier.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:59 pm UTC

Of course, the other advantage with not No Lynching is that BoomFrog might prevent another kill, thus granting an extra mislynch, and therefore making up for my mislynch, whilst leaving fewer players for scum to hide in.

Yes, withholding is dum, if there's a lynch, as it's equivalent to a doctor save. My comment was that scum might withhold (again?) if there's another No Lynch. Sorry if it wasn't clear. In more general terms, that bit about the kill is that I doubt much information will come from it, regardless of what scum do (I'm assuming they won't kill unconfirmeds, though I suppose it is possible).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Vote bessie
Fair enough, as long as it’s not for a dumb meta reason. Let’s see what you've got.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: As noted yesterday, and as pointed out by bessie, many of my main points against her could be because of the longer game, but I still feel like she has a reasonable chance of being scum. If she is scum, I think it most likely to be with Hari Seldon, mostly because I don't see her being buddies with LaserGuy, but I could consider a bessie/cemper team faintly plausible, given she doesn't say much about cemper or MoA's content.
Ok this is a reasonable observation.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I think she is misjudging how cautious I am as scum, basing it on our game together.
Disagree. I think you were overly cautious in the Dark Tower too, I should go and dig it out of Gojoe. [checks Gojoe] Hmm, I thought I had made a post about your over-caution in the Dark Tower but I couldn’t find it, was it another game, or was it someone else? I couldn’t find anything, but I did find a remark I had made about scum bussing scum . Guess that answers my question from this post:
bessie wrote:As to whether or not jimbob and LaserGuy could bus this hard, I don’t recall and I’m too tired to reread The Dark Tower, maybe tomorrow.


jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Anyway, back to bessie. My gut keeps telling me that this isn't normal bessie. I'm hoping that this is the indication that says that I can identify scum!bessie from usually-super-townie!bessie. Combine this with the PoE evidence, and I feel like she is probably scum, but am not certain.
Agree that regardless of whether or not I see your suspicions as reasonable or acceptable, it is what it is. But I feel that this is a very weak basis for a vote, especially on D4 (but not as bad as if we were at MYLO/LYLO). I would attack you for not having a strong scum read on D4 but I agree with your reasons for not wanting to vote your strongest scum read, so I accept that I’m all you have.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: @flicky - you highlighted bessie not treating Sabrar as confirmed town on D3, but she never responded and you never followed up on this. A) Why did you not follow up, and b), what were your thoughts when you asked this question?
I would be interested in seeing flicky’s response to this. Reference this post.


Mostly stream-of-conscious reads list

BoomFrog – My nemesis, my scum-tunnel, the Omnipotent One proves once again that I’m not so smart. He will see how it really must be. Woof.

flicky1991 – Buried in content, I sympathize. Accusing me of fluffy posting since D3. Accused me of helping scum-partner-Whale, I understand the initial suspicion but I feel it went on for too long and for the wrong reasons. I feel like he’s looking for reasons to scum read me because there’s no one else, like he’s been too strong on some of his town reads to backtrack, and he’s trying not to bus his partner, so I’m all he has left.

Hari Seldon – My feeling is not only that he is town, but that he is not scum. I think that he’s the only one besides me whose primary focus has been to try to analyze the content posted in this game for itself, and use supplemental information like meta as supporting evidence, not the other way around (and he’s succeeding where I’m failing). But when he does make a meta read, I’m usually quite astonished, like here. As previously stated, I would be willing to reevaluate him on D5 but I'm currently pretty solid on him.

jimbobmacdoodle - He wasn’t sure I if could bus so hard, I guess he changed his mind. Scum or just wrong? I’ll try to find time to reread him tonight and post something more, but I think I’ve said enough to justify my suspicions on P35 and P36. I know that I owe jimbob more of a read.

LaserGuy - Has a very aggressive posting style, sometimes has strong opinions and sticks with them too hard and too long, things that I’ve called him scummy for in the past and he was scum, but he’s scum like I’m town so it’s hard to label anything as alignment indicative and not just LaserGuy. I made a lot of notes on D3 for a LaserGuy analysis when I was doing my BoomFrog analysis here on P27, why didn’t that analysis ever happen? Let’s see, I was tunneling on BoomFrog, annoyed with Sabrar… I think where I started to question my scum read on LaserGuy was this post on P31. There’s so much that is wrong in that post, but so much that is right, especially with the process, and solid in a townie way even if I don’t always agree with the conclusions.

MasterOfAll/cemper93 - Early in the game I was suspicious that cemper was going to try to push an unsubstantiated meta read on me, but I no longer feel that was his intent. I like the way that cemper was analyzing the content, not just trying to clear players, and he did not back down when challenged by me. Unfortunately MasterOfAll hasn’t given us much to work with, I would be willing to reevaluate him if we’re both around on D5, where I will consider his lack of content when making my read (he gets a lurking pass today for RL reasons). Perhaps tomorrow I will be able to question him and draw him more in to the game.

Sabrar – He doesn’t always understand or approve of me me me, which I find quite interesting. Brain the size of a planet, does he have the answer, and can he calculate the question?


Woof
bessie
Sabrar
BoomFrog
Hari Seldon

MasterOfAll
LaserGuy

flicky1991
jimbobmacdoodle
Grrr


I’ll be at work at deadline, my last opportunity to post will be at about 8:00am PST (deadline -3), and I won’t have time to post anything extensive. If anyone wants me to respond to anything, please try to post within the next five hours.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:34 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:(unless it would cause a NL, as we can't afford another one of those this day, I think)
Why do you think so?
At this point, I don't think another Day of conversation will likely change people's attitudes much. Unlike at the start of D4, when we had BoomFrog's and LaserGuy's claims to digest (and by implication, everybody else's), and the non-kill to discuss, I don't think we'll get much information today by No Lynching. I think lynching me at least gives my town flip for everybody to discuss in D5, along with vote analysis. I don't know what will happen with the night kill, but I'm assuming it'll be of somebody who gives town little/no information (i.e. you or BoomFrog), or will be withheld again. I could be persuaded otherwise though.


Why do you think the kill was withheld rather than blocked last night?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:40 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@flicky - you highlighted bessie not treating Sabrar as confirmed town on D3, but she never responded and you never followed up on this. A) Why did you not follow up, and b), what were your thoughts when you asked this question?
a) I forgot about it. b) Just that I was considering him confirmed town and didn't understand why anyone else wouldn't.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Who do you think is my buddy now?
I haven't had time to re-look at you/Hari so I'm not sure if that team makes sense, but you two are the least townie for me right now that I've re-read bessie.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:What statements, aside from my theory on scum being one of two and one of three, have you found weird from me?
I would need to look back over your content to remind myself, which I don't have time for now - sorry...
any pronouns
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:24 am UTC

bessie wrote:Brain the size of a planet, does he have the answer, and can he calculate the question?
Big fan

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:31 am UTC

MasterOfAll wrote:@mods, can you please clarify when the deadline is? (It doesn't seem that there were any objections to extending to the other side of the weekend, and I certainly don't object.)
So you managed not to post over the weekend. Are you going to vote?


Vote: flicky1991


Unofficial votals

jimbobmacdoodle - 3 (Hari Seldon, Sabrar, flicky1991)
flicky1991 - 3 (LaserGuy, BoomFrog, bessie)
bessie – 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)

Not voting: MasterOfAll

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.


@Sabrar, I was fortunate enough to see him speak (shit, showed my age there).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Suzaku » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:58 am UTC

Current Votals:

jimbobmacdoodle - 3 (Hari Seldon, Sabrar, flicky1991)
flicky1991 - 3 (LaserGuy, BoomFrog, bessie)
bessie - 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)

Not voting: MasterOfAll

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
Deadline in about 11 hours.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:44 am UTC

bessie wrote:@Sabrar, I was fortunate enough to see him speak (shit, showed my age there).
Lucky dog.

@BoomFrog: I don't think it matters but please share who you protected N3 before you die. :wink:

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:59 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Why do you think the kill was withheld rather than blocked last night?
I don't really. I think it more likely that scum targeted Sabrar and were blocked. I used "again" there because if scum withhold tonight, it is very likely in my opinion that they withheld last night, but I can see how that wasn't clear on reread.
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