Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - Endgame - Apocalypse

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Peaceful Whale
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Peaceful Whale » Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:20 pm UTC

Hmmmmmm
I really don’t like the “Definitely scum” people...
There’s little evidence against most of Zenniis scummy people.
I think I said this before, but I believe he is just placing pressure on individuals.
I’m perfectly fine with him having me on his town list, but I’m worried it’s him trying to manipulate me into following him...
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Sabrar
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:05 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:I'm still up for the idea of finding 3 sets of possible scum partners and lynching one of each.
With just a little bit of modification this would be a brilliant plan although it's not surprising that you have suggested the highly inferior version.

@Zen: are you at least 95% sure that Vicarin is scum?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby heuristically_alone » Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:09 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:I’m perfectly fine with him having me on his town list,


Haha good. Otherwise I'd be worried.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby heuristically_alone » Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:10 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
heuristically_alone wrote:I'm still up for the idea of finding 3 sets of possible scum partners and lynching one of each.
With just a little bit of modification this would be a brilliant plan although it's not surprising that you have suggested the highly inferior version.

Doesn't surprise me either :D so what's your modification?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:21 pm UTC

Sabrar: I liked HA's post there because it shows genuine scumhunting right off the at. I want to ask why you didn't answer Laser's second question, do you think PW's posts were insincere? Tell me what you think of Plytho and SomiSomi. I'm at work, I'll respond to others later.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby plytho » Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:26 pm UTC

freezeblade wrote:If there is a cult, I don't expect masons, but if there is no cult, masons I put at about a 30% chance.
Masons seem way overpowered in lights out.

Evil George Washington wrote:Just because we have the ability to lynch three times a day does not mean we should use that.
We can lynch more than 3 times a day.

wam wrote:Did you miss the word could in There? Deva posted some stats that we used to hit scum 20% or so on day 1 lynches which has gone up to 40%. I will let someone else run the statistics on oir likelihood of htting scum in 3 day 1 lynches which you are proposing.

Those stats are part of why I’m against multiple D1 lynches.

Suspicion at this point is toward the people that don’t want to multi lynch.

Sabrar vs heury is weird.

I like Freezeblade’s post.

I wonder what we’ll do with all the extra time we get after the last lynch of the day. Twilight was weird in crossover and now it’s going to be much longer.

somitomi wrote:
Peaceful Whale wrote:we may have to stop ourselves from lynching, and let the day pass. Let power roles get stuff, and whoever dies in the night can give us a lot of information.

We don't even know what kind of PRs we might have or whether scum were given fake claims, both of which I think diminishes the credibility of PR claims (and whatever information is packaged with them).
Why are you preemptively dismissing PR claims?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:56 pm UTC

Somi, any thoughts as of late? Who do you think is scum?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby somitomi » Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:59 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:
wam wrote:The other thing making me twitchy is the number of alignment calls being made with little content!

That aspect mystifies me as well, but then I've always had trouble forming opinions on D1.
More in a bit, but I need to run down to the store.

Bit more on this: I am usually a little perplexed by how quickly some of the inexperience challenged players draw conclusions but some alignment calls are fast even by that standard. I'm not sure what to make of the way Zen or Sabrar just burst through the door yelling "I know who's scum so let's lynch them". Especially Zen, because I have no previous experience with them.
plytho wrote:I feel like the lights out system helps town(by providing more lynches) so in order to balance the game the mod probably gave the mafia more power/people. So I disagree with Madge saying the opposite in her early post.

I'm not in favor of lynching more than one person D1 because we're lynching pretty much blind.

I don't think Madge said the opposite although the wording is a little vague regarding which way she thinks the PRs push the balance.
Evil George Washington wrote:Plytho: I've explained it to Vic and Omiomiomi already. I want to minimize error. I did say that if people want more than one lynch, I feel we should cap it at 2 D1 and then cap it at 1 in future days to maximize the information we get from Day 1, and minimize error and blindness.

I don't see why you'd draw the line at one single lynch on subsequent days while allowing two lynches on D1 when we have the least amount of information. For what it's worth I wouldn't want to go for more than two-three lynches a day though, even three feels like tempting fate.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:22 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Sabrar vs heury is weird.


What do you feel is weird about it in particular?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:27 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:I want to ask why you didn't answer Laser's second question, do you think PW's posts were insincere?
It wasn't relevant for the point I wanted to make. Also, the answer can be derived from my earlier content.

Evil George Washington wrote:Tell me what you think of Plytho and SomiSomi. I'm at work, I'll respond to others later.
Too soon to tell, don't have soul-reads on them.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:28 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:so what's your modification?
Waiting for others to chime in first, didn't forget you.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby freezeblade » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:35 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
freezeblade wrote:If there is a cult, I don't expect masons, but if there is no cult, masons I put at about a 30% chance.
Masons seem way overpowered in lights out.

Disagree, as "masons" are not necessary of the same alignment. Such as in Chairman Maofia (I always bring this up, it's like I'm a broken record harping on it all the time. Mentioning it, I might as well get up on the soapbox now:

If you are a mason, the alignment of your partner is not necessarily that of your own.


Now that I've gotten that out of the way, back to your regularly scheduled game.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:43 pm UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:I liked HA's post there because it shows genuine scumhunting right off the at.
How? Honestly don't see why that has to be genuine.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby plytho » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:59 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:Sabrar vs heury is weird.


What do you feel is weird about it in particular?


Sabrar posts his strategy.
Heury immediately responds to it. (his remark is fine, Sabrar's strategy relies on some of the survivors being easy to read)
Sabrar calls heury scummy because his remark is unfounded (it isn't) and heury wasn't paying attention (I think Sabrar isn't paying attention himself)
Heury replies, showing he actually did misunderstand part of Sabrar's post. (thinking Sabrar's lynch list was his scum list)
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby somitomi » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:05 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
somitomi wrote:
Peaceful Whale wrote:we may have to stop ourselves from lynching, and let the day pass. Let power roles get stuff, and whoever dies in the night can give us a lot of information.

We don't even know what kind of PRs we might have or whether scum were given fake claims, both of which I think diminishes the credibility of PR claims (and whatever information is packaged with them).
Why are you preemptively dismissing PR claims?

I didn't intend to do so completely, but the "no comment" on the question about fake claims means I would take any claim with a pinch of salt. The other point I didn't make particularly well in that post is that there might not be any investigative roles for all we know. That's probably not the case, but I think it's better to assume the worst and not plan for a PR result like it's the 7:40 Railjet to Vienna.
Evil George Washington wrote:Somi, any thoughts as of late? Who do you think is scum?

I wish I had any clear cut opinion, but I'm already having trouble keeping up with who said what. I'm generally uncomfortable with people suggesting we lynch 3 or 4 people today, although I'm afraid calling them scum because I disagree would be superbly flawed logic. Nevertheless I haven't seen any good arguments in favor of it and I'd think mafia would be likely to push for more mislynch opportunities.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:32 pm UTC

@bessie: What is your read on Zen?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Evil George Washington » Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:19 pm UTC

Sabrar: It's not since it's unclear from this response: Post You agree that it's null. What is the purpose of your attack on PW based on your agreement, and how are you reading him now based on actual content? HA is genuine because he is scumhunting directly, from the get go as a towny should and would. I get out at 8PM, responses to others after I get out of work.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby wam » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:50 am UTC

Strategy thoughts this post, reads post to follow.

Vicarin wrote:Well, some people seemed to be implying that we'd be flying blind in between the 1st and 2nd lynches, which, as you've pointed out, isn't the case.


Erm I don't get this how is having no flip not flying blind?

Evil George Washington wrote: I did say that if people want more than one lynch, I feel we should cap it at 2 D1 and then cap it at 1 in future days to maximize the information we get from Day 1, and minimize error and blindness.


I highly disagree the day to do limited lynches is Day 1.

Spoiler:
LaserGuy wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:Sabrar: Please explain how you think PW's content was suspicious as I don't see it that way. It seems he is excited to play.
You are referring to pre-gamestart content. I'm referring to post-gamestart, with his bad strategy suggestions.


Bad strategy suggestions do not necessarily come from scum. Do you think he was being insincere?


I agree, the flip side is also true, good strategy suggestions do not necessarily come from town!

plytho wrote:Those stats are part of why I’m against multiple D1 lynches.

Suspicion at this point is toward the people that don’t want to multi lynch.



This seems to contradict itself. What I think your saying is day 1, 1 lynch, multiples in later days, which I agree with. So you are suspicious of people who don't want to multi lynh later in the game. Can you confirm I'm right? Also I don't think many people have stated their preference for number of lynches later in the game.

Spoiler:
somitomi wrote:
plytho wrote:
somitomi wrote:
Peaceful Whale wrote:we may have to stop ourselves from lynching, and let the day pass. Let power roles get stuff, and whoever dies in the night can give us a lot of information.

We don't even know what kind of PRs we might have or whether scum were given fake claims, both of which I think diminishes the credibility of PR claims (and whatever information is packaged with them).
Why are you preemptively dismissing PR claims?

I didn't intend to do so completely, but the "no comment" on the question about fake claims means I would take any claim with a pinch of salt. The other point I didn't make particularly well in that post is that there might not be any investigative roles for all we know. That's probably not the case, but I think it's better to assume the worst and not plan for a PR result like it's the 7:40 Railjet to Vienna.
Evil George Washington wrote:Somi, any thoughts as of late? Who do you think is scum?

I wish I had any clear cut opinion, but I'm already having trouble keeping up with who said what. I'm generally uncomfortable with people suggesting we lynch 3 or 4 people today, although I'm afraid calling them scum because I disagree would be superbly flawed logic. Nevertheless I haven't seen any good arguments in favor of it and I'd think mafia would be likely to push for more mislynch opportunities.


Meta note: Going back a long time Suzaku and I ran a sherlock game with some pretty heavy anti claim mechanics, (I looked it up when we ran newbie mafia). So I would not be surprised to see something in this game along the lines of fake claims or similar.

The last line above is something I had considered and not mentioned as I didn't want to give scum ideas. Multiple lynches especially day one allows scum to heavily push mislynches as the come back won't happen till the day after. I am suspicious that of all people Sabrar hasn't clocked this.

Summary, I am definetly in the lynch 1 or maybe 2 today camp. I am open to multiple lynches in following days as things come clearer.

I realised I missed a question, I have no flavour knowledge.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Zenii » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:14 am UTC

Notes & Accusations

General:
I seriously question the people that have been speculating about a cult, especially Madge (and Sabrar too if he has, don't feel like checking). That would be a horrible role to put in this game. With these mechanics, it's possible they wouldn't even have a Night to recruit. And it is very plausible that we may not have more than two Nights.

I prefer 3 lynches today, but I'm fine with 2. Very much disagree with just 1.

Someone should totally do us the honor of looking up a past Lights Out game to see what sort of stuff we should expect.

Madge:
I like how Madge just ignored my questions.

Spoiler:
I don't actually :(


plytho:
plytho is quiet. I wrote "+1 plytho post" on a sticky note, but I forgot which one it is. I'll look back later.

pedit: found it. It was the one where he explains why lynching more than one person is good. Good stuff. Not necessarily alignment indicative though.


Vic:
More on why Vic is scummy,

4. He thinks that the game is balanced by giving scum stronger night actions, yet he thinks the idea of a NL is worthwhile and he is against utilizing the multi lynch. Cool, let's put the power in scum's hands!

5. Active lurking. Getting caught up in unimportant stuff such as NLing. No one is even considering that right now.

Vicarin wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:Or hey, maybe I was wrong and this is the actual test by Zenii? Whether I'd think he was trying to get a rise or not? Got me good.
No test, you're just scummy. It may just be that because of your last game, you think NL discussion is more important than it is. So, I could be wrong. If you're willing to lynch Sabrar, I'd be ok with layin off of ya for now. This isn't a test. Vote Sabrar and I'll vote with you.


Sabrar:
Sabrar wrote:I wanted to wait for everyone to have some substantial content before giving serious reads but this is getting ridiculous.

Scum is heuristically_alone + freezeblade + 1 out of {George, Zen}. Switch LaserGuy with Zen in my previous list and we got a winner. Vicarin is so obv-town it hurts my eyes.

Sabrar wrote:freezeblade: I read this as fluff, posting only for the sake of posting, plus being wishy washy about PW's eagerness. I'm least comfortable with this read however.
Link

So you feel least comfortable about your freeze read but you are voting him, eh? Sounds like bud distancing to me. Also, your reason for scum reading h_a is so weak and most likely fake.

Sabrar wrote:@Zen: are you at least 95% sure that Vicarin is scum?
I've said 100% twice. How'd ya miss that? Unless there are multiple factions or you're a jester, then I'm actually dropping this down to 50%. I don't think you are buddies together because of how strongly you're town reading him. So I'd like to like to go with a version of heury's plan and lynch just one of you today. I'm actually leaning you currently.

Sabrar your one of Zen/George logic doesn't make any sense. You don't think BOTH of us could think Vic is scummy, which means that you think one of us is misguided. If that's the case, then we can easily both be misguided. Fake reasoning. Trying to use a null tell to justify a read.

You are referring to pre-gamestart content. I'm referring to post-gamestart, with his bad strategy suggestions.
Why are you not looking at both? PW's eagerness to start was mega towny.



Questions

Bessie:
I find it interesting, as Madge’s first post in her previous game was all strategy.

What do you mean by interesting, exactly?

Also, I think George may have asked this already, but why is adding flare in the confirmation phase suspicious?

Someone else asked this as well, why would PW want to draw an attack from you? That doesn't make sense for scum to do at all.


Laser:
Please reveal the Madge meta. Also the "Zen is distancing bessie" thing is the wrong path. There would be no reason for anyone to ever bus bessie since it's easy to drop a town read on her.

What do you think of Sabrar?

Responses
wam wrote:Did you miss the word could in There?
I did actually! You good homie.

Evil George Washington wrote:Zen: I can agree that the no strategy in her first post is concerning, but i'm null on her and need more. I can't condemn her or clear her either way. How are you reading Wam?
Just a feeling. If there's more than one anti-town faction though he may be scum cause of the cult suggestion.

Working Theory

multiple anti-town factions,

faction 1: Sabrar, Freezeblade
faction 2: Vic, x

x = wam, bessie, or y
y = ???

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby heuristically_alone » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:26 am UTC

somitomi wrote:
plytho wrote:
somitomi wrote:
Peaceful Whale wrote:we may have to stop ourselves from lynching, and let the day pass. Let power roles get stuff, and whoever dies in the night can give us a lot of information.

We don't even know what kind of PRs we might have or whether scum were given fake claims, both of which I think diminishes the credibility of PR claims (and whatever information is packaged with them).
Why are you preemptively dismissing PR claims?

I didn't intend to do so completely, but the "no comment" on the question about fake claims means I would take any claim with a pinch of salt. The other point I didn't make particularly well in that post is that there might not be any investigative roles for all we know. That's probably not the case, but I think it's better to assume the worst and not plan for a PR result like it's the 7:40 Railjet to Vienna.
Evil George Washington wrote:Somi, any thoughts as of late? Who do you think is scum?

I wish I had any clear cut opinion, but I'm already having trouble keeping up with who said what. I'm generally uncomfortable with people suggesting we lynch 3 or 4 people today, although I'm afraid calling them scum because I disagree would be superbly flawed logic. Nevertheless I haven't seen any good arguments in favor of it and I'd think mafia would be likely to push for more mislynch opportunities.


Based on the somi plytho brief exchange, I'm slightly town reading plytho and null reading somi.

Good argument for 3 lynches: mislynches aren't necessarily bad. We still get more so much information from every single lynch so the more knowledge we have going into d2 the better. Worse case scenario is 2 deaths overnight and going into s2 with 8 players remaining. I doubt there are more than 3 mafia. Armed with the informatin learned from the mislynches I can practically guarantee that by end of d2 we can find almost all scum if not all.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby heuristically_alone » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:27 am UTC

plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:Sabrar vs heury is weird.


What do you feel is weird about it in particular?


Sabrar posts his strategy.
Heury immediately responds to it. (his remark is fine, Sabrar's strategy relies on some of the survivors being easy to read)
Sabrar calls heury scummy because his remark is unfounded (it isn't) and heury wasn't paying attention (I think Sabrar isn't paying attention himself)
Heury replies, showing he actually did misunderstand part of Sabrar's post. (thinking Sabrar's lynch list was his scum list)

I 100% didnt believe his lynch list was his scum list.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Vicarin » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:53 am UTC

Zenii wrote:Vic:
More on why Vic is scummy,

4. He thinks that the game is balanced by giving scum stronger night actions, yet he thinks the idea of a NL is worthwhile and he is against utilizing the multi lynch. Cool, let's put the power in scum's hands!

5. Active lurking. Getting caught up in unimportant stuff such as NLing. No one is even considering that right now.

Vicarin wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:Or hey, maybe I was wrong and this is the actual test by Zenii? Whether I'd think he was trying to get a rise or not? Got me good.
No test, you're just scummy. It may just be that because of your last game, you think NL discussion is more important than it is. So, I could be wrong. If you're willing to lynch Sabrar, I'd be ok with layin off of ya for now. This isn't a test. Vote Sabrar and I'll vote with you.


Zenii: I'd be feeling a lot better about you if you actually read what I was saying, with the context. I'm against using doing a huge bunch of lynches D1 blind, I'm happy doing a huge clump of lynches later on if it's supported by evidence. Similarly, I don't actually want to NL much, I was just saying that I'm not going to eviscerate anyone who brings it up like last game. Even if we do NL, we can catch up on the lynches the next day pretty easily.

Putting words into people's mouths ain't exactly the most townie thing to do. Quote me when you're arguing against something that I said.

Zenii wrote:I seriously question the people that have been speculating about a cult, especially Madge (and Sabrar too if he has, don't feel like checking). That would be a horrible role to put in this game. With these mechanics, it's possible they wouldn't even have a Night to recruit. And it is very plausible that we may not have more than two Nights.


Seeing as this logic would apply to basically every PR role with a night power, you seem to be implying that every non-vanilla role should have a day power/passive power or else they might miss out on doing something this game. It's like ruling out an SK just because they might get lynched D1. It's entirely likely that the game will be very fast, but that doesn't mean that something like a cult would be a bad fit, because it becomes much easier to balance compared to normal.

Also, don't really see the Sabrar scumminess, I think he's playing slightly differently from last game I think but it's not worth a vote. So I'm not going to take up your oh so generous offer.

Unvote
Vote: Zenii

I do find it especially interesting that the most common complaint that I've seen about D1s on this forum is that people say that they can't come up with anyone they feel strongly enough about lynching, and now that we can lynch more than 1, people are pushing for 3 or 4 blind lynches immediately.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Vicarin » Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:00 am UTC

It's also looking increasingly likely that I'm the only one who's played the damn game that this is based off (or at least I'm the only one that wants to admit it), so here's https://stellaris.paradoxwikis.com/Preset_empires which gives some idea of other factions that could be in the game. Or there could be some slight tweaks to some of these.

I'd put the likelihood of a Jester existing at below 5%, because there's basically no flavor justification and way too many lynches in this game, not sure about exactly how likely other roles are precisely.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby heuristically_alone » Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:08 am UTC

I typically believe in completely ignoring the flavour when speculating the setup. Flavour shouldn't be what we base decisions off of.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Vicarin » Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:10 am UTC

It's not the primary determinant, but it helps narrow down some possibilities. If you want to work out how Suzaku justifies a Jester in this sort of setup, be my guest.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby wam » Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:32 am UTC

Now reads posts.

I don't tend to do confirmation post analysis so I will skip that and leave it to those who do.

I am also going to warn you that I went to dinner in the middle of this so if its inconsistent I'm sorry.

Summary

Town (no particular order)
PW
Vicarin
Laser

Leaning town
Freezeblade
heuristically_alone

Neutral (no particular order)
Bessie
Plytho
Somitomi

Slightly Scummy
Madge

Scummy (From least scummy to most scummy)
Evil George Washington
Zenii
Sabrar

Detailed thoughts (as much as they can be day1)
bessie
First post classic bessie. Need more content to fully analyse a read. Although based on how wrong I was in secret santa not sure if that will help!

Evil George Washington
Strategy wise I disagree but as per previous post I am not ruling that alignment indicative. I don;t get the vic vote, also 3 is a pretty fast bandwaggon, 8 hours into day 1. The pushing for votes I like, and pushing for scum hunting but this can be faked. The more than one anti-town faction item laser highlighted concerns me as it seems a weird thing to state and I don't understand it.

freezeblade
First post pretty empty but its the start of the day. I like the latest post, I think the point on madge is valid but not as alignment indicative as stated.

heuristically_alone
town points for the lynch one of possible pairs. Caveat on this, end of newbie mafia a lot of the pairs suggested only had one scum in them... I like the rest of their content.

LaserGuy
Points for cult hunting. More poinst for highlighting the bad strategy does not equal scum point.

Madge
Post 1 pretty empty. Post 2 is pretty standard D1 madge but was pushed to get that done.

Peaceful Whale
This is coming across as townie PW to me. The scummhunting feels more natural and not forced. The fishing for reactions is something I have not noticed before and think he wouldn't have tried something new like that as scum.

plytho
Mainly setup spec and strategy, I would like some reads and impressions please.

Sabrar
So the stating reads and sticking with them thick and thin is my experience of town sabrar. However I have never played with Scum sabrar. However this pings massively

Sabrar wrote:N1 scum has 2 kills but they foolishly try to kill me and I get protected. Vig kills Jester.


Where did you get the 2 kills from? This strikes me as a pretty big slip.

somitomi
I realised I had read the thread and not really got an impression of Somi. I would like to see reads and a bottom 2 or 3.

Vicarin
I like the lynch lurkers point comes across townie. Does push the possibility of working it as normal game but wheres the fun in that. Responses to all the votes seem townie, hes working through the points and I agree. Pressing someone early day 1 is a very common tactic and responding to it is not that alignment indicative.

Zenii
Starts with a set of questions, all reasonable. I am suspicious about asking sabrar his opinion on himself being quite towny. I am always suspicious of people who declare themselves townie. I go back to my previous point, linking himself to PW is odd. 2 options as I see it they are buddys in someway or Zenii is trying to link himself to newbie town. I don't get the push on Vic, the below makes sense to me....

As we can catch up on lynches we've skipped, NL is much less of an issue, but we do have less info to go on in the meantime, and possible cults need to be found.

I'd also consider the possibility of a pacifist or militaristic independent alien who needs either some NLs or many lynches in one day to win, but I'm not sure if they'd fit in the setup.

'
Also Zenii the below is exactly why I considered it as a possbility as it makes it easier to balance.
Spoiler:
Zenii wrote:Notes & Accusations

General:
I seriously question the people that have been speculating about a cult, especially Madge (and Sabrar too if he has, don't feel like checking). That would be a horrible role to put in this game. With these mechanics, it's possible they wouldn't even have a Night to recruit. And it is very plausible that we may not have more than two Nights.

/quote]



Questions (apologies if the answers are in thread and I have missed them).

@ Sabrar, do you normally read Zenii correctly?
@ Laser what other alignment changing roles would you expect that mod comment to be covering?
@ Sabrar, I agree with the below.
Evil George Washington wrote:Sabrar, I'd like you to explain your reasoning for your scum team.


When?
Sabrar wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:Sabrar, I'd like you to explain your reasoning for your scum team.
I will.
Sabrar answered.

@ Evil george, who is you second pick as scum after vic?

So after all that I think the possible slip by Sabrar is the best tell I have found so my random vote is now serious.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Madge » Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:48 am UTC

I think I'm coming around on the idea of doing just one voteoff today and then tomorrow doing multiple when we have potential night results to go by and a wagon.

nobody's hitting me as scummy yet. we'll see what the future holds.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby heuristically_alone » Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:15 am UTC

wam wrote:
Sabrar
So the stating reads and sticking with them thick and thin is my experience of town sabrar. However I have never played with Scum sabrar. However this pings massively

Sabrar wrote:N1 scum has 2 kills but they foolishly try to kill me and I get protected. Vig kills Jester.


Where did you get the 2 kills from? This strikes me as a pretty big slip.


I am 99% certain Sabrar was joking and telling a story on how the night would go. If you think it's a slip, what's the liklihood of him knowing there are 2 night kills, a vig, and a jester?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby wam » Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:43 am UTC

The vig and jester I read as a joke. And I can see those. A double kill is unusual enough I think there is more behind it.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby bessie » Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:53 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Main thing I'm willing to rule out is anything resembling a normal Survivor, just because the poor bastard wouldn't be able to ever claim truthfully without dying. Oh, and Jester, for the opposite reason, where it's too easy to win unless someone gets paranoid about a Jesterbomb.
Why do you think a survivor would claim? Jester, yes, this would be the ideal game for a jester to claim.

Vicarin wrote:But I've already mentioned most of this up above, so I'm not sure what else you want from me? Specific numbers? I guess 8-3-1-1 could work.
Yes, specific numbers. You speculate about powers, and about independent roles, but you didn’t actually give a breakdown as to how many mafia or independents you think may be in the game.

Vicarin wrote: Mainly the "Lynch 4 players on D1 that he's randomly put up" part. Also calling you obv-town despite you not having posted yet. Also suggesting that Jester is likely in a game where town would just lynch the jester and keep rolling. But I don't really believe you're taking the plan seriously either
I seriously consider all content, whether or not I would seriously support it is something different. And think you should consider that something may contain a serious aspect before you brush it off and label the poster completely insane.

Vicarin wrote:bessie - If you think that PW knows that you're going to attack him over his behavior, what do you think his motive is for doing it?
I think he is trying to draw an attack from me and he is being obvious about it so that his actions will not be seen as alignment indicative. Other players have already said of his content this game that PW is just being PW. I think he is deliberately trying to create a meta that is unhelpful and hard to read, and that this is more important to him than scum hunting. Reference his signature (since altered to add cemper93 as the quoted person), which he created after being lynched in the Newbie game, and he also posted that he changed his signature and asked for opinions in Gojoe unspoilered, during an ongoing game, after he was lynched, and when his meta was the topic of said ongoing game. And this tactic is somewhat working, Peaceful Whale's meta is that he posts what he posts, and his scummy behavior is non-alignment indicative. It’s a good place to hide as scum, but aside form the meta issue I have other issues with his content in this game that I read as scummy (among other things, note his enthusiasm seems to have dropped once people started getting serious).

Vicarin wrote:Ok, hands up: who's actually played Stellaris here? I want to know who actually knows what is and isn't at least loosely justified in flavor.
I am unfamiliar with this game. I clicked Suzaku’s link and read only the blub, because I have no extra time to research flavor.

Evil George Washington wrote:Bessie: Why do you feel pre-game content is suspicious? Why don't you explain why it would be suspicious in your post. Why don't you vote?
Hmm, I’ll try to explain, there’s a couple things going on. First of all, I think that posting content during the confirmation phase is suspicious, well for one thing, because doing so is usually not allowed, so the poster is already breaking the rules. Second, there is an attitude that pre game content doesn’t really count. Not true and I have argued strongly about this before (see Wheel of Time 2). Anything posted in the thread counts and is fair game for analysis. You don’t get to say “oh well don’t count what I said, I wasn’t really playing” about anything posted in the thread. There’s a player on this forum that is known for, among other things, catching scum from their confirmation post. I too have caught scum based on their confirmation post. And he tried to brush it off too, because it was a confirmation post. Usually, there is nothing to analyze, most confirmation posts contain only confirmation (sometimes jokey), or an acceptable mod question, or info like “I won’t be available for 12 hours” or the like. The last time I was suspicious with a player’s confirmation phase content, I didn’t pursue it like I should have on D1, and I was killed N1, and the player was scum. See this post, I also discuss my second point above. The third thing that is going on with this has to do with Peaceful Whale deliberately trying to get a reaction from me, see above.

George, I know that was a bit stream-of-consciousness answer, but I'm not taking time to proofread and organize as well as I usually do, so ask me if I'm not clear.

Sabrar wrote:Vicarin is so obv-town it hurts my eyes.
Obvi-town, or obvi-not-mafia?

somitomi wrote:We don't even know what kind of PRs we might have or whether scum were given fake claims, both of which I think diminishes the credibility of PR claims (and whatever information is packaged with them).
Noted, somitomi is already trying to discredit PR results. [pre post edit, also noted by plytho] [second edit, somitomi’s response here, reinforces distrust of PR claims]

Peaceful Whale wrote:Regarding Zennii and Sabrar...
I think they’re both insane, I was sheeeeeeping Zennie for content. Namely seeing how Madge would react (more on this later).

It’s now later, I am interested in your “more on this”.

Re freezeblade’s "lynch stance" post, I am for lynching as many people as we feel confident in lynching. My initial feeling is that this will probably be two, but I am open to more, and have no pre-set cap. I also support lynching lurkers, as this can be done without wasting a lynch, and will hopefully encourage content.

plytho wrote:I wonder what we’ll do with all the extra time we get after the last lynch of the day. Twilight was weird in crossover and now it’s going to be much longer.
This is an odd thing to say. There is no twilight. There is no cap on lynches, so there is no definitive last lynch of the day, unless it’s in the last 12 hours in which case day ends and night begins.

freezeblade wrote:Disagree, as "masons" are not necessary of the same alignment. Such as in Chairman Maofia (I always bring this up, it's like I'm a broken record harping on it all the time. Mentioning it, I might as well get up on the soapbox now:

If you are a mason, the alignment of your partner is not necessarily that of your own.


Now that I've gotten that out of the way, back to your regularly scheduled game.
Why did you post this? Last time I was masonized, I specifically asked if it was mason (confirmed town) chat or neighbor (non confirmed) chat. Every other time I was masons, it was mod confirmed. This is an odd post because I would expect a player to ask the mod if alignment confirmed/non-confirmed was not explicitly stated in the pm. plytho’s not a newbie, he knows this. freezeblade, how about posting some content analysis instead of opinions on the setup?

LaserGuy wrote:@bessie: What is your read on Zen?
Will come back to this later tonight.

Zenii wrote:Bessie:
I find it interesting, as Madge’s first post in her previous game was all strategy.

What do you mean by interesting, exactly?

Also, I think George may have asked this already, but why is adding flare in the confirmation phase suspicious?

Someone else asked this as well, why would PW want to draw an attack from you? That doesn't make sense for scum to do at all.
Will come back to #1 later tonight, I’ve covered #2 and #3 in this post but just ask if you want me to explain anything.

Will respond to everything else later tonight. I’ve been typing for well over an hour and I need to cook dinner.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Sabrar » Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:59 am UTC

I wrote up my intro post last Thursday and haven't changed a single character since (except adding the quote from Madge since it provided a great lead-in).
Discuss.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Sabrar » Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:08 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
heuristically_alone wrote:so what's your modification?
Waiting for others to chime in first, didn't forget you.
Don't see this one picking up much steam so here it goes.

Sabrar's absolutely brilliantTM plan:
Instead of finding 2 possibly linked players, find a pair where at least 1 of them has to be scum and lynch both.
We have the numbers, going 1-for-1 with scum is great for us.

I suggest we start with Zen and Vicarin.

Unvote
Vote: Zenii

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby wam » Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:10 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I wrote up my intro post last Thursday and haven't changed a single character since (except adding the quote from Madge since it provided a great lead-in).
Discuss.


I wrote my strategy thoughts Sunday so it's a possibility. But if you want to go down that route your reads then become less valid as it looks like you were reaching for justification when you wrote them.

To put this simply if it is not a slip what makes you think there are 2 nk?

I will think on this overnight
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Vicarin » Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:11 am UTC

bessie wrote:
Vicarin wrote:Main thing I'm willing to rule out is anything resembling a normal Survivor, just because the poor bastard wouldn't be able to ever claim truthfully without dying. Oh, and Jester, for the opposite reason, where it's too easy to win unless someone gets paranoid about a Jesterbomb.
Why do you think a survivor would claim? Jester, yes, this would be the ideal game for a jester to claim.


Well, it's more that it's stupidly hard for them to survive unless they've been given a good fake claim (which is definitely possible), as we're probably going to have a mass claim at some point, and any independents will probably be strung up immediately after 'just in case'.

Sabrar wrote:I wrote up my intro post last Thursday and haven't changed a single character since (except adding the quote from Madge since it provided a great lead-in).
Discuss.


That would make sense, not terribly surprising.

Sabrar wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
heuristically_alone wrote:so what's your modification?
Waiting for others to chime in first, didn't forget you.
Don't see this one picking up much steam so here it goes.

Sabrar's absolutely brilliantTM plan:
Instead of finding 2 possibly linked players, find a pair where at least 1 of them has to be scum and lynch both.
We have the numbers, going 1-for-1 with scum is great for us.

I suggest we start with Zen and Vicarin.

Unvote
Vote: Zenii


I'm all for lynching Zenii at this point, but I'd really prefer to not be collateral damage just because someone randomly latched onto me.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Sabrar » Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:01 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:HA is genuine because he is scumhunting directly, from the get go as a towny should and would.
Stop dodging the question. Why is that genuine scum-hunting? Why not a fake? Why is it scum-hunting at all if the vote is 91% joke?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Evil George Washington » Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:27 am UTC

Sabrar: It's not fake because it doesn't look fake. It's aggressive and direct. Vic's push on PW looks fake. I've even given evidence to that. Now you have not followed up with my response here, answer it please. The 91% joke doesn't actually make it look fake. 'I'm gonna vote this guy for the time being' seems fake. Rather then just 'this pings me vote: player'. Now answer my question.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Evil George Washington » Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:28 am UTC

Sabrar: It's not since it's unclear from this response: Post You agree that it's null. Why do feel PW is SUPER SUSPICIOUS if you agree and know that your basis of that read is a null tell?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Vicarin » Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:39 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:Sabrar: It's not fake because it doesn't look fake. It's aggressive and direct.


Well jeez I wasn't aware that something looking not fake was a consistent tell. And that scum can't be aggressive and direct.

Evil George Washington wrote:Sabrar: It's not since it's unclear from this response: Post You agree that it's null. Why do feel PW is SUPER SUSPICIOUS if you agree and know that your basis of that read is a null tell?


If someone is doing consistently unhelpful stuff for town, then what do you suggest we do about it?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Sabrar » Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:04 am UTC

I always promise myself not to do it in my next game but damn, it's just too tempting.
Scum-team is {George, h_a, Zen} (for real this time).
There are plenty of connections, will provide details as time permits.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D1 - Assassination

Postby Evil George Washington » Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:09 am UTC

Don't dodge the question, Sabrar.


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