Alien Warfare Mafia (GAME OVER)

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Liri
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Liri » Wed May 02, 2018 6:43 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
Liri wrote:@plytho - I was looking for reactions, there
Where?

The comment about the elephant
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Wed May 02, 2018 6:50 pm UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:
Vicarin wrote:@mark+Liri: Any thoughts about the setup without going into specifics?

I also agree 6-3-2-2 since in the role PM it mentioned two aliens, and an extra alien faction could be hidden maybe?

Actually, I realized it is probably 6-3-3-1. Makes more sense

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed May 02, 2018 6:57 pm UTC

Liri wrote:
plytho wrote:
Liri wrote:@plytho - I was looking for reactions, there
Where?

The comment about the elephant
What did you get from those reactions?
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 02, 2018 7:14 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Unvote: Sabrar

Did you forget about your vote on wam?

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 02, 2018 7:18 pm UTC

Yes.
Unvote: wam

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Wed May 02, 2018 7:18 pm UTC

So right sabrar not backing down

I read through secret santa, crossover, and xmen.

My initial read on sabrar not backing down came from secret santa. Where he kept playing weirdly whilst under pressure and defintely tunnelled. I know there was a purpose but other players would have backed down under the pressure.

Reading through crossover he is more reasonable but there are comments that this is like normal sabrar.

Xmen, was somewhere in the middle.

So I take back my read.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 02, 2018 7:32 pm UTC

Thinking about how a setup of 6-x-x-x would fit, in rough order of my confidence in the reads...

Maven is Town
plytho is Town
Vic is still probably Town.
jimbob is probably Town
Sabrar is probably an alien of some variety.
bessie is probably Town, but could be non-mafia alien
wam is probably alien
freezeblade is probably alien
Mark is probably alien co-aligned with Sabrar.
Liri is probably alien.
SDK read is pending on the info he says he's going to reveal
No idea about mpolo.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 02, 2018 8:24 pm UTC

Why is bessie the most likely indie?

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Maven89 » Wed May 02, 2018 8:26 pm UTC

I'd guess a setup around 8-3-2 or 7-3-3 or 6-3-3-1, maybe. I don't see any fourth faction being more than a survivor if a fourth faction even exists

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Maven89 » Wed May 02, 2018 8:31 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Thinking about how a setup of 6-x-x-x would fit, in rough order of my confidence in the reads...

Maven is Town
plytho is Town
Vic is still probably Town.
jimbob is probably Town
Sabrar is probably an alien of some variety.
bessie is probably Town, but could be non-mafia alien
wam is probably alien
freezeblade is probably alien
Mark is probably alien co-aligned with Sabrar.
Liri is probably alien.
SDK read is pending on the info he says he's going to reveal
No idea about mpolo.


I agree with most of this, except I have less confidence in Bessie being town, and don't agree on Mark. Why do you think mark is aligned with Sabrar?

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 02, 2018 9:12 pm UTC

Maven89 wrote:I agree with most of this, except I have less confidence in Bessie being town, and don't agree on Mark. Why do you think mark is aligned with Sabrar?


Mark_Cangila wrote:He didn't update or answer what he did wrong. I also agree it seems odd. He should at least bluff something. It does look like he's trying to get lynched.


This feels alignment-informed to me, particularly the part about bluffing. This could just be newbie weirdness though, so I'm not putting great stock in that read. As an aside, I find it interesting that both new players seemingly missed what people were talking about with regard to the setup spec, but immediately produced details about it once we started talking openly.

Sabrar wrote:Why is bessie the most likely indie?


It's more that I have better reasons to believe that the players above her are definitively Town. bessie I find townie, but in this sort of setup, maybe not necessarily Town.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Liri » Wed May 02, 2018 9:13 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Liri wrote:
plytho wrote:
Liri wrote:@plytho - I was looking for reactions, there
Where?

The comment about the elephant
What did you get from those reactions?

Let's see

Bessie straight-up said what the elephant was

You and plytho were both worried/pinged by it

Not a ton to go on!
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Wed May 02, 2018 9:25 pm UTC

Liri wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:What did you get from those reactions?

Let's see

Bessie straight-up said what the elephant was

You and plytho were both worried/pinged by it

Not a ton to go on!

And what kind of reactions were you expecting? How were you going to catch scum?
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Vicarin » Thu May 03, 2018 1:29 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:If that is what you were expecting the setup to be, I'm a bit confused as to what you were attempting to do with the PM gambit. Why would you assume that the not-necessarily-mafia factions would have the Town wincon but that the necessarily-mafia factions wouldn't? Or were you hunting for any non-Town players that didn't have the role PM?


I'm hunting for all non-Town at the moment, yes. Anyone not-town dying is good right now.

LaserGuy wrote:As an aside, I find it interesting that both new players seemingly missed what people were talking about with regard to the setup spec, but immediately produced details about it once we started talking openly.


Yeah, I was expecting more questions from Mark at least about what the numbers meant precisely, or how it would be balanced. Immediately jumping into choosing numbers with some confidence is interesting...

At the moment, I'm mostly worried about what the hell the alien win conditions are, in order to fit with the town win condition.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Thu May 03, 2018 1:39 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Mark_Cangila: Please pick at least two players other than Sabrar or Vicarin to look at in a little more depth and explain what you think of them and why.

My second person is plytho. He does seem townie with his mention of the elephant in the room. I might have missed it, but did he post what he said he would post about the elephant after it was released?

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Thu May 03, 2018 1:40 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Yeah, I was expecting more questions from Mark at least about what the numbers meant precisely, or how it would be balanced. Immediately jumping into choosing numbers with some confidence is interesting...

I just sorta assumed what they mean, based on the fact that town has the most, then mafia, then indies

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Vicarin » Thu May 03, 2018 1:45 am UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:My second person is plytho. He does seem townie with his mention of the elephant in the room. I might have missed it, but did he post what he said he would post about the elephant after it was released?


He posted it near the bottom of the last page in a quote block by "the elephant".

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby bessie » Thu May 03, 2018 4:50 am UTC

Ok, I’m going to do some replies, and then try to work on my reads. Weekdays are difficult for me; I usually have more time on weekends but I think wam and jimbob both mentioned that they would be away for the weekend, and freezeblade doesn’t play on weekends, so I’m hoping to have my reads by tomorrow night, to give everyone a chance to reply. Pre post edit, hey everyone, game ends on Sunday, try to get something up by tomorrow!

wam wrote:
bessie wrote:@wam feeling paranoid this morning?

I deserved that. But could you answer the question.
You mean respond to this?
wam wrote:@Bessie unlike you to vote early without a long line of argument.
I occasionally vote without providing a reason with the vote, if I feel that my position is obvious from previous content, or very occasionally I will do it to provoke a reaction or discussion. But yes it is somewhat rare.

Or was your implied question supposed to be why did I vote for you?

Vicarin wrote:@wam: Well, I think that a 4 person town would be completely ridiculous in a 13 person game so I'm pretty sure it's not the latter.
wam wrote:Iv played more ridiculous games.
Agree with you wam, but this is supposed to be a low bastardry/newbie friendly. Not sure how it is all supposed to fit together yet. I guess this leads me here:

bessie’s working setup spec: 6/3/3/1. My feeling from the first two pages of content is that possibly the anti town factions didn’t have the town win condition, and each faction didn’t know of the existence of the other. To make this theory fit the content, then the scum factions need to be big enough not to suspect the existence of another faction. The other possibility is 8/2/2/1, where the two scum factions have a recruit. The reason I have an independent in my setup spec is that I’m gaming the mod. Heury said he could run the game with 12 players, so I think the 13th player could be a survivor or similar.

Other possibilities:
The two non-town factions have always known of each other’s existence, and didn’t want to tip off town, so they tried to play it off.
The two other factions are not both anti-town.
There is town, two independent factions, and one mafia.

Re Sabrar’s post here.
Sabrar wrote:Explanation time (lot of work for nothing...)
Agree with that assessment.

Sabrar wrote:Several players responded, some of them also play in this game. I hoped that because they probably wouldn't remember this I might catch some inconsistency in their replies.
The problem I have with what you did is that it’s not even a valid comparison. I’ll use me me me as the representative example.

Your question from a year ago:
Sabrar wrote:Also preliminary question for a future game (or even this one in case option c is preferred): how would people feel about a setup where multiple (minor) vote-manipulating powers would be present but the effects of these would not be shown in the votals? So players would only know who voted for whom but would be a bit in the dark on who exactly was leading the votals (or what the threshold for hammering was). Of course nothing would prevent claiming these powers but there would be also no way of proving your claim. Is this something you would like to try? Can you think of any pitfalls why this would be a bad idea?

My answer:
bessie wrote:Sabrar, I would prefer b) but would sign up for any. Mostly flavor blind. I agree with Deva’s observation about the voting powers. I don’t like the idea of any mechanics that discourage voting or posting, or where a player can be punished for their vote or for posting (like third on the wagon or someone who says a certain word loses their night action or is killed or something).

Your question from this game:
Sabrar wrote:@bessie, freezeblade, jimbob, LaserGuy: what is your opinion about the possibility of vote-changing mechanics not showing up in the votals?

My answer:
bessie wrote:Bastard if unknown to players. The mod announced it, but I think it’s still a stretch to call it minimal bastardry. Also, this is supposed to be a mostly newbie friendly game. I think that if this mechanic exists, it is probably a town power, and perhaps not totally hidden, or has some limitations (like can't count as hammer, only used as a tie breaker, is part of an unlynchable mechanic, etc). Even limited would still be pretty borderline for minimal bastardry. In minimal bastard games (especially newbie friendly ones) players should be able to deduce the true votals.

The question is similar, but the context is not. The earlier inquiry was about a prospective game, and an opinion about using the proposed voting mechanics in the future game. The implied question was “do you like/should I try”? My answer was “don’t like/please don’t”. The current inquiry is about a game that I’m already playing. There was no indication that there would be hidden voting mechanics in the sign ups (although not specifically ruled out). I was already playing when I found out about it, it’s not something that’s going to make me request a replacement, and my answer is from a participant’s point-of-view, and “do you like/would you try” is no longer relevant. I am having trouble believing that this distinction did not occur to you when you asked the question, and it reminds me of your content in Crossover, when you used your time on interesting diversions to avoid using it efficiently by scum hunting. Link for the curious.

wam wrote:Right so sabrar s last but one post has convinced me he's town. That was a plan that I don't think sabrar would have used in a scum game as he would have wanted to save the logic for when it would be very beneficial.
What I said to Sabrar about not believing the distinction between the two situations didn’t occur to him, same to you.

mpolo wrote:As Maven(?) said, the problem with Sabrar's initial post is not absolute – a proper explanation could have defused suspicion. However, that explanation is lacking, which suggests that Sabrar doesn't know the town win condition. However, I also feel a bit uncomfortable in trying to weasel information out of this, though.
There’s enough out there that you don’t need to worry about holding back on your analysis and conclusions for fear of tipping off scum as to what we are discussing, so please share your thoughts.

LaserGuy wrote:Unvote: Sabrar
Weren’t you voting for wam? [pre post edit: addressed.]

plytho wrote:Bessie, you’re not usually one to answer questions addressed to others I believe, what gives?
Reference this post for the question.
Sabrar wrote: Please point out all the information that has been spilled before my updated setup-claim.
Well, I feel that a question is open after the intended recipient answers, and you gave your reply here, and you stated you would wait for the bean-spiller (which was me in the same post). Since my reply to Sabrar directly connects to my meta, I thought it appropriate for me to do so (especially given his history of meta reading me, see my lead-in immediately preceding in the same post).

Ok, that’s almost two hours, and I didn’t quite finish, will come back in a bit for P7.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 03, 2018 5:42 am UTC

bessie wrote:The question is similar, but the context is not. The earlier inquiry was about a prospective game, and an opinion about using the proposed voting mechanics in the future game. The implied question was “do you like/should I try”? My answer was “don’t like/please don’t”. The current inquiry is about a game that I’m already playing. There was no indication that there would be hidden voting mechanics in the sign ups (although not specifically ruled out). I was already playing when I found out about it, it’s not something that’s going to make me request a replacement, and my answer is from a participant’s point-of-view, and “do you like/would you try” is no longer relevant.
Agree that context is somewhat different but disagree that it invalidates the whole approach. To give you an example let's assume that scum doesn't have such abilities and are worried in their chat that it might screw their plans up to lynch their preferred target. Obviously they do not want to make this known so they might for safety reasons express an opposite sentiment. Had any of you stated something along the lines of "I'm curious how this will work and eager to find out" without any negative emotions shown then that would have been a huge red flag in my opinion.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 6:41 am UTC

Bessie it was a combined question. Why a vote with no logic and why me?
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 03, 2018 7:26 am UTC

I find it very interesting that no-one brought up Secret Santa wrt freezeblade speculating about me having a vote-activated ability...

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 7:53 am UTC

Your playstyle is very different in this game.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu May 03, 2018 7:54 am UTC

Liri wrote:It seems likely, at this point, that a traditional town doesn't constitute the majority of players, but probably a plurality. Something along the lines of 4-3-3-3, or maybe even 3-3-3-3-1, is what it looks like right now. I've been going through in my head how that sort of game would play out; I'm in agreement with what's been said about balance though. Not quite sure how it would play out.
More questions to add to plytho's: why do you think there are so few town? Why do you think there are more than three factions? Who do you think is in each faction?

Sabrar wrote:I find it very interesting that no-one brought up Secret Santa wrt freezeblade speculating about me having a vote-activated ability...
I, at least, didn't really think about it.

Vote: SDK

for lurking and contributing practically nothing to the discussion. Freezeblade is well known for disliking D1, so I'm letting him off for now, but more needed from him too.

I know they're both newbies, but still, Liri feels off, and I certainly see the doubts people have about Mark. I want to go back through his posts one more time, although given his first-game status, it'd be rude to vote him off D1.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 03, 2018 9:17 am UTC

wam wrote:Your playstyle is very different in this game.
Exactly. I would have expected at least bessie to point this out during her tunneling.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 10:18 am UTC

Right this has felt like a very odd D1. Thoughts on players so far.

Sabrar - town see earlier
LaserGuy - I am leaning town
jimbobmacdoodle - I am leaning town
Vicarin - not sure will need to read through
Maven89 - slightly scummy
Mark_Cangila - newbie a but wierd but am willing to wait for more content.
FreezeBlade - standard freeze neutral
mpolo - neutral awaiting more content
plytho - realised writing this I don't have a real impression of plytho am going to g9 back an 're read.
Liri - same a mark seems a bit lost and flailing slightly.
bessie - town based on meta
SDK - scum

The biggest flag for me is not that SDK is lurking he is active lurking. I.e posting occasionally promising content and not delivering. This is always a much bigger flag for me than just lurking.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 03, 2018 10:26 am UTC

wam wrote:bessie - town based on meta
Explain this please.

I feel like scum!SDK with his experience should be well aware that what he's doing is active lurking but I've already read him as scummy for other reasons and I cannot really reconcile the two. He definitely hasn't earned any townie-points yet.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 10:27 am UTC

If I explain my meta read it become valueless going forward
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 03, 2018 10:33 am UTC

Lol

Vote: wam

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 03, 2018 10:37 am UTC

You can also refer to Hari Seldon from Newbie New Year.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 03, 2018 10:47 am UTC

@SDK: what's your read on bessie?

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 10:48 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Lol

Vote: wam

Are you voting wam for copying you?
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 03, 2018 10:49 am UTC

It's basically the last push.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 11:00 am UTC

I will explain it if needed but yeah sabrar you dolikeusig the same logic so the vote is ironic.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 1:00 pm UTC

Reads list:

Bessie: Solid activity, good questions/prodding. I’m a little bothered by her answering a question intended for someone else (me) and I don’t really accept her reasoning.
Spoiler:
bessie wrote:
plytho wrote:Bessie, you’re not usually one to answer questions addressed to others I believe, what gives?
Reference this post for the question.
Sabrar wrote: Please point out all the information that has been spilled before my updated setup-claim.
Well, I feel that a question is open after the intended recipient answers, and you gave your reply here, and you stated you would wait for the bean-spiller (which was me in the same post). Since my reply to Sabrar directly connects to my meta, I thought it appropriate for me to do so (especially given his history of meta reading me, see my lead-in immediately preceding in the same post).
Sure, a question is open after the intended recipient answers, but I didn’t answer. There’s a difference between a reply and an answer.

I’m not quite sure what the scum motivation might be here, but it’s odd.


Freezeblade: Is responding to questions, but not providing any unsolicited content. Should provide some opinions on people other than Sabrar. I’d like a reads list before the weekend;

Jimbobmacdoodle: I get a pretty strong town vibe from jimbob. He’s got sensible opinions on everyone and he’s clearly not parroting other’s opinions (for example: defending wam, while most people find him suspicious).

LaserGuy: also a pretty strong town feel. I like his pressure on Sabrar and wam, feels very natural.

Liri: I kind of feel like Liri slipped when he got confused about the elephant. At first I thought it may be newbie town confusion, in which case it would have been ok for Liri to say “oops, I didn’t get that”. Instead used the “I was looking for reactions” defense, which doesn’t really work here. Probably alien.

Mark_Cangila: I’m getting a newbie town feel from Mark. I liked his push on Sabrar/Vicarin for bringing up ‘unlikely possibilities for town to worry about’. I don’t agree with his reasoning but it shows initiative and independent thinking.

Maven: also looking townie . Asking solid questions to multiple people. I particularly like his prodding of bessie and wam.

Mpolo: light on content, pretty much null , I’d like a reads list before the weekend.
Sabrar: still leaning scum on Sabrar. For reasons mentioned here. His bit about the vote-changing mechanics is about as likely to come from town as scum.

SDK:
SDK wrote:I think I've got slightly more information than the average townie
That’s generally true for scum ;)
I’m curious what SDK has to say, but he better not wait too long because, as bessie pointed out, a couple of people will be busy this weekend and everyone should have some content up for review before that.

Vicarin: looking very townie right out of the gate

Wam: the one player that sounds most like he doesn’t have the town role-pm. Particularly this post which is a kind of vague non-answer echoing maven’s own realisation without clearly indicating he understood what maven was talking about. And this post which looks like it was copied from bessie’s answer which does mention the setup (or at least the discussion around it) as interesting while wam ignores the setup and just calls the second part of Sabrar’s post suspicous.


Human
Vicarin
Maven
jimbobmacdoodle
LaserGuy
Mark_Cangila
freezeblade
Bessie
mpolo
SDK
Sabrar
Liri
wam
Alien


Some general concerns
It’s quite tricky to sort without knowing the nature of scum (daychat/nightchat, kill/no kill, recruit,..). I don’t think these factors will necessarily be the same for the different aliens. Also, I tend to call people townie for their scumhunting efforts. But in multi-scum games scum also gets to do hunting, so we need to be wary of that. There’s also the fact that small scum teams have an easier job hiding their buddies.


Liri wrote:Wheel of Time, Shakespeare, Crossover - is there a good place to see what those setups involved? I don't want you guys to have to explain all that.


The common theme in these is the fact that there are multiple scum/nontown factions in the game.

Shakespeare had two scum factions with night chat and nightkill (and one independent?).
Crossover had two scum factions with daychat and nightkill and a couple of independents.
Shakespeare was a cult game with no factional night kill. Two cults had to recruit players from town and attempt to become dominant. There was also a scum faction that could win by getting recruited and becoming dominant in the dominant cult.

In both Shakespeare and crossover town managed to root out one scum team but lost to the other.
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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu May 03, 2018 1:07 pm UTC

plytho wrote:ShakespeareWheel of Time 2 was a cult game with no factional night kill. Two cults had to recruit players from town and attempt to become dominant. There was also a scum faction that could win by getting recruited and becoming dominant in the dominant cult.
FTFY.

Nice reads list, after a quick skim. There's one particular bit that illustrates that you and I largely think alike. I don't want to highlight it just yet though, for reasons which I'll explain soon, hopefully.
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wam
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 1:29 pm UTC

So plytho all those suspicions of me and no vote?
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plytho
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 1:31 pm UTC

wam wrote:So plytho all those suspicions of me and no vote?
Do you want one?
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wam
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 1:33 pm UTC

I was just wondering why? I would have asked the same question if you had the same analysis of any player.
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plytho
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 1:43 pm UTC

I guess I'm kind of waiting to see where Liri and SDK are going. You've got a bunch of votes already so I don't need to vote you for pressure.
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Vicarin
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Vicarin » Thu May 03, 2018 2:02 pm UTC

Yeah, I've mainly been waiting on this promised info from SDK for a bit, it is starting to drag on.

wam claiming a meta read on bessie while refusing to explain it is basically one of the least useful things to put into a reads list (can't explain a read while scum? Just claim it's a meta read!), so wam isn't looking terribly great as well.

Interesting to see how much wam and Sabrar have been fighting, as those were the two most suspicious people early on, but there's nothing stopping them from being different factions of aliens. Have to rely much more on reads based off individual behaviour rather than trying to link people together for determining scum.


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