Meta Mafia II: Day 5

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby mpolo » Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:36 pm UTC

RE: SDK

His contributions after toward the end of his wagon looked much better than he did before the wagon. I need to look back to see if my opinion has really permanently changed, or if I was just deflected.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby Madge » Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:50 pm UTC

So, I don’t really have much time for this post; it’s gonna be shorter and less thorough than usual, but still pretty good by my normal meta.

Anyway, I think we should assume we only have one set of bad guys for now. Pretty likely to be the case, given the night results.

Alright, it’s time to work out where I stand on Mark now. Really can’t depend on tunnelling him, I gotta listen to my instincts: my gut says that Mark was playing like newbie town. Or maybe like newbie scum and that’s what he wanted me to think :/. To be honest I’m wondering how I’m going to keep this bessie meta up much longer since my first post is bringing up gut reads and I really struggled towards the end of yesterday, but I’ll do my best!

Thanks for some wonderful flavour. I want to watch us get older and older with memories of the mafia game, until the final 2v1 showdown occurs in a nursing home. I hope that’s what you’ve got planned, bessie! :D

@plytho (who I originally called jimbob): I like your case on SDK and agree it’s logical, but my gut (ugh, sorry, I’m being a greyhound again and not a lab!) says that he’s townie based on his really good posts. But…. SDK could make really good posts as scum. So I’m second-guessing my gut. I think that unless / until people claim with any interesting night results, we’re going to have to stick with these sorts of analyses and if SDK is in our crosshairs then he’s in our crosshairs. (I don’t think there’s any newbies left so I will trust everyone to know when is the right time to claim: now probably isn’t it).

For the record, I still find Mark scummier, but I’m willing to trust plytho’s logic on this one.

Vote: SDK

I’m less convinced on the fruit recipient claiming. I think if we assume there’s a fruit vendor for the sake of argument (if there isn’t, this discussion is pointless/neutral, so we may as well assume there is), then mafia isn’t sure what town PRs they have to strategise around until the fruit vendor claims.

I’ll break it down:

If we’re in (5), mafia thinks we’re in (5), done (like plytho said)
If we’re in (10), mafia thinks we’re in (10) or (11) (not sure where Plytho got (6)).

So in 10/11, mafia isn’t sure whether to strategise around watcher/commuter or doctor/nurse.

What do we get out of knowing whether we’re in (5) or (10)? Assurance that we’re only facing one scumteam (given one NK, we probably are), which gives us no useful information. Assurance there’s no rolecop, which just makes our PRs rest easier. It… doesn’t help us strategise. I mean yes, I am dying to know which setup we’re in just like anyone else is, but I don’t think it’s actually going to help us accomplish anything.

Why should the fruit vendor counterclaim if the recipient doesn’t claim? Why would scum!recipient bother to keep it secret? What benefit do you get from it?

I think fruit recipients could claim only to confirm a fruit vendor claim. I also think that we’ve got a 2/14 chance of having a fruit vendor at all, and on top of that Sabrar may have received the fruit and be too dead to let us know. So I think it’s a huge waste of time and I am ashamed that I spent 20 minutes of my valuable time writing up a detailed treatise on the subject without using a single quote or underline reference to a past game.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby plytho » Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:32 pm UTC

Madge wrote:If we’re in (10), mafia thinks we’re in (10) or (11) (not sure where Plytho got (6)).
Matrix 14, in both (10) and (6) mafia have rolecop, 2-shot strongman and goon.

Madge wrote:What do we get out of knowing whether we’re in (5) or (10)? Assurance that we’re only facing one scumteam (given one NK, we probably are), which gives us no useful information. Assurance there’s no rolecop, which just makes our PRs rest easier. It… doesn’t help us strategise. I mean yes, I am dying to know which setup we’re in just like anyone else is, but I don’t think it’s actually going to help us accomplish anything.
Assurance that there's only one scum team is quite useful and one NK N1 isn't enough evidence for me. As Sabrar pointed out earlier it also helps our cop by confirming there's no godfather.

Part of my point is also that there's little scum gains from the claim.

Madge wrote:Why should the fruit vendor counterclaim if the recipient doesn’t claim? Why would scum!recipient bother to keep it secret? What benefit do you get from it?
I don't know why scum would keep it secret but I really don't know why town would keep it secret. So a non-claim would look suspicious to me.

Madge wrote:Thanks for some wonderful flavour. I want to watch us get older and older with memories of the mafia game, until the final 2v1 showdown occurs in a nursing home. I hope that’s what you’ve got planned, bessie!
This I fully agree with!

Madge wrote:(I don’t think there’s any newbies left so I will trust everyone to know when is the right time to claim: now probably isn’t it).
Mark is still pretty new.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby wam » Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:01 pm UTC

I'm torn as I generally take the view information helps town but I can sort of see madges point. Will mull it over.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby freezeblade » Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:28 pm UTC

Nothing to claim from N1.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@freezeblade, I believe somebody else asked you about this already, but to reiterate, your vote on me you admitted was based on a misunderstanding. Why did you not unvote and take a stance on SDK versus Vicarin?


However you were still my scummiest read at that point, no apologies for gut reads!

Will collect thoughts hopefully today between projects.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:57 pm UTC

I haven't looked at setup too carefully but from the points made it sounds like a fruit receiver claim would be useful so we know the size of the scum team. Fruit vendor should wait until endgame to claim, increasing the chance that scum hit a VT tonight.

If SDK is scum wam is town haha.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby wam » Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:50 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
If SDK is scum wam is town haha.
.


I think plytho is more town if SDK is scum!
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jun 05, 2018 5:00 pm UTC

I was the one who originally suggested that the first person to receive fruit should claim. I still think that this is likely best, but it's not clear. Assuming there is a fruit vendor, we still have two mislynches before LYLO, I believe. That means that we have two more opportunities for fruit to be handed out. There are two reasons I can think of for somebody not to claim receiving fruit at this point. 1) Setup knowledge given to scum, and 2) The ability to prove a fruit vendor claim later. As others have pointed out, there's a reasonable chance that scum already know the setup, and having a firm idea of setup for town PRs is somewhat useful potentially. I therefore don't think that point 1) is a good reason against claiming. Point 2) is perhaps more interesting, and ultimately, I think is hard to judge. There's at least two more chances for the fruit vendor to hit someone who will be alive at end game to confirm them later, which sounds like reasonable odds, but I don't think it's clear cut.

I definitely don't think the fruit vendor should claim at this point, maybe tomorrow, if we mislynch again. Essentially they should probably claim at LYLO day - 1. It seems unlikely that scum will counterclaim unless in that situation. They certainly shouldn't claim to show that their target has not claimed receiving fruit, since they might have been blocked.

Also, yeah, what wam and BoomFrog just said re. towniness of plytho and wam if SDK is scum.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby mpolo » Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:38 pm UTC

I don't think a fruit vendor should claim until later, or possibly when under pressure. I can see the argument both ways for fruit recipient claiming, though. I think the net utility is on the side of town for a first fruit recipient claim.

I have nothing to claim, by the way.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:28 pm UTC

Sorry guys! Today is super busy because we're getting ready for our trip (TOMORROW! I'M SO EXCITED!!) so I probably won't have time to post too much. Hopefully tonight I'll have a bit of time to say a bit more, but we'll see how things go. If not, my next post will be from Mexico. I don't know what my content is going to be like this week. I was really hoping that there would be a few days before my trip BUT that night was SO LONG. I'll do my best to try to keep up with the thread, but I apologize in advance if my content this week is lacklustre or incoherent. I'll try my hardest while I'm away and I promise you'll get some epic content from me when I get back!

I think it's a good idea for anyone who received fruit to claim. I don't think the fruit vendor or any other PRs should claim unless they have a result worth sharing.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby plytho » Tue Jun 05, 2018 10:44 pm UTC

I just realized counterclaiming a non fruit claim is a bad idea since odds of roleblock are pretty high.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jun 05, 2018 10:56 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: They certainly shouldn't claim to show that their target has not claimed receiving fruit, since they might have been blocked.


plytho wrote:I just realized counterclaiming a non fruit claim is a bad idea since odds of roleblock are pretty high.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby plytho » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:58 am UTC

Apparently not :oops:

Also it's ridiculously quiet. Only one post while I was asleep?

Where is SDK? Where is Mark?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby wam » Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:33 am UTC

Yeah I'm waiting for SDK defence as well! Given he's at l-3 already.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby wam » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:18 am UTC

So had a quick look back at sabrar s and vics reads as looking at dead towns readsnis something we normally miss.

Sabrar - was convinced on Vic. Was also suspicious of SDK . Along with freeze and me.

Vic - viewed SDK as scum. Also was suspicious of Madge near end of day 1. Also links mpolo and SDK which is an interesting read.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby Madge » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:21 am UTC

plytho wrote:
Madge wrote:If we’re in (10), mafia thinks we’re in (10) or (11) (not sure where Plytho got (6)).
Matrix 14, in both (10) and (6) mafia have rolecop, 2-shot strongman and goon.


I think I’m missing something? This is what I have from Matrix 14 wiki as you linked:

(10) Mafia Roleblocker, 2 Mafia Goons, Town Nurse, Town Doctor, Town Fruit Vendor 7 Vanilla Townies (10:3)

(6) Mafia Rolecop, Mafia 2-Shot Strongman, Mafia goon, Town Tracker, Town Universal Backup, Town Doctor, 7 Vanilla Townies (10:3)

In 10, mafia has RB. In 6, Mafia has cop?

11 on the other hand is the same:

(11) Mafia Roleblocker, 2 Mafia Goons, Town 2-Shot Commuter, Town Watcher, Town Universal Backup, 7 Vanilla Townies (10:3)

plytho wrote:
Madge wrote:Why should the fruit vendor counterclaim if the recipient doesn’t claim? Why would scum!recipient bother to keep it secret? What benefit do you get from it?
I don't know why scum would keep it secret but I really don't know why town would keep it secret. So a non-claim would look suspicious to me.


I just explained why town might keep it secret: mafia gets setup information in 50% of cases, and are able to determine which town PRs they strategise around. Town gets literally no information. We still need to hunt out scum regardless. Our cop/watcher/doctor/nurse are still going to target the people they should target.

Meanwhile, the fruit recipient can confirm the fruit vendor at endgame: and if there are multiple then that is all the more proof.

I agree with jimbob’s logic on when the vendor should claim

plytho wrote:
Madge wrote:(I don’t think there’s any newbies left so I will trust everyone to know when is the right time to claim: now probably isn’t it).
Mark is still pretty new.

@Mark: basically, only claim a result if you can get us to vote off scum or stop us from voting off town. Note that this applies if you’re a doctor too because people you protect on nights who don’t end up dead were probably town (definitely town if we only have one scum team, barring some vanishingly rare shenanigans).
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby plytho » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:32 am UTC

A couple of thoughts on the wagons, from an SDK=scum perspective:

Wam gets points for being on SDK both times. Moody and mpolo voted SDK once, so some points, but not as much as wam.

I feel like LaserGuy's vote is the one that damned Vicarin.

Jimbob was consistently on Vicarin so he feels less opportunistic.

Mark, hmm, has apparently been gone for longer than I realized. His last post is at the top of page 8. He was very early on Vicarin (right after the first deadline). Starting the momentum on Vicarin.

Freezeblade and Madge voted for neither in both rounds. Madge is voting SDK now, which I like.

People's thoughts on my SDcase:

Wam and Madge are voting SDK so they agree.

Moody referenced his D1 vote as agreement.

jimbob doesn't agree (called it an insignificant detail at first, sees where I'm coming from but still doesn't agree but can't explain why), but will take another look.

mpolo needs to take another look

freezeblade, BoomFrog and LaserGuy haven't addressed the question yet.

SDK and Mark haven't shown up yet.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:35 am UTC

Thanks for the vote timeline plytho. I'm looking at it, and I realise that without SDK's flip, it's going to be somewhat hard to draw any firm conclusions. However, let's see what we can get out of it:

Assuming SDK is town:
Point 1: at the original deadline, plytho, wam, and mpolo were the first three on his wagon (the other two are both confirmed town due to death). In this case, all three of them look pretty good, as there were many different options to push a lynch
Point 2: of those three, plytho never removed his vote (looks very good), wam switches to Vicarin, then back to SDK to make it 4-4. This also looks very good, since all it would take would be one more vote to SDK to seal his lynch, whereas scum!wam could easily have stayed on Vicarin. Mpolo looks fairly bad for exactly this reason, as he switched to Vicarin, but not back.
Point 3: freezeblade and Madge both look pretty bad for not taking a stance on the lynch by day end, given how close the votes were.
Point 4: LaserGuy looks pretty bad for being the one to break the tie with his vote in favour of town getting lynched.
Point 5: I have no issue with SDKs defensive vote, given the state of play at the time.
Point 6: moody looks pretty good for his SDK vote, as it brings SDK back up to parity with Vicarin.
Point 7: I feel pretty neutral on Mark, though I guess he gets some slight scum points due to being on a town wagon (yes, I know, this applies to me too).
Point 8: All of the pro-town points become pro-not-SDK buddy points if there is an SK or werewolf team.

Assuming SDK is town:
Point 1: plytho, wam and mpolo all look bad in increasing order for pushing a town wagon, with mpolo looking worst due to essentially being the one to seal it.
Point 2: the hopping wagons by wam and mpolo is a pretty neutral point in this situation. Maybe looking worse for wam, who essentially seals the second town wagon as the counter wagon to SDK, reducing the risk of a scum wagon appearing.
Point 3: Madge still looks bad for not committing to anything, including no attempt to push a third, possibly scum wagon. Freezeblade is not so bad from a neutral point of view, but from my point of view looks very bad as he sits his vote on me, thus apparently avoiding lynching a townie whilst still having a vote down on a townie.
Point 4: LaserGuy's tie breaker vote is pretty null.
Point 5: SDKs defensive vote is fine.
Point 6: Moody's vote looks pretty bad as it seals in SDK as the second wagon at that point, when a third, potentially scum, wagon might still have been possible.
Point 7: Mark's vote looks pretty neutral at that point, for similar reasons to the scum!SDK point earlier.
Point 8: Nobody gets any townie points in this situation if there are multiple scum teams.

Conclusion: if SDK is town, I'm not sure there's much that can be drawn from the votals, except maybe to really look at wam, mpolo and moody. If SDK is scum, mpolo doesn't look great, but LaserGuy looks the worst. In either case, freezeblade and Madge aren't amazing either.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby plytho » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:45 am UTC

Madge wrote:I think I’m missing something? This is what I have from Matrix 14 wiki as you linked
:shock: huh, the actual matrix doesn't seem to match the setups written out below.

Was the matrix 14 table used for the setup or the written descriptions below the table?

Madge wrote:
plytho wrote:
Madge wrote:Why should the fruit vendor counterclaim if the recipient doesn’t claim? Why would scum!recipient bother to keep it secret? What benefit do you get from it?
I don't know why scum would keep it secret but I really don't know why town would keep it secret. So a non-claim would look suspicious to me.


I just explained why town might keep it secret: mafia gets setup information in 50% of cases, and are able to determine which town PRs they strategise around. Town gets literally no information. We still need to hunt out scum regardless. Our cop/watcher/doctor/nurse are still going to target the people they should target.
Considering the fact that there's a rolecop in (6) and (10)[caveat] it's more like 30% of the cases where scum get info. And I wouldn't say we get no information. But I do agree with the general points, we aren't going to get better lynch targets and PR's aren't going to get better targets from the setup info so I'm no longer pro-claiming.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby Diemo » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:47 am UTC

The table was used to as the setup, not the list.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby plytho » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:48 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Assuming SDK is town:

You mean scum in the first one, I assume?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:56 am UTC

plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Assuming SDK is town:

You mean scum in the first one, I assume?
:oops: yes.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby Madge » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:58 am UTC

I was thinking some more about the fruit vendor thing:

Do the fruit vendor and recipient receive generic “fruit” or is a specific type of fruit named? If the latter does the vendor pick it from a list or is it random?

If the vendor knows what fruit they sent, the type of fruit can be used as additional confirmation. Allowing the vendor to claim that they sent a fruit to the recipient, and then the recipient can claim the type of fruit, and the vendor can confirm that. I’m not sure if that’s helpful but I’ve been thinking about it since my last post about fruit vendors and I’m stuck on it.

RE the table VS list thing: oh crap, that explains the confusion. Thank you.

So, to write it out neatly for me:

Fruit vendor implies:
(5) Mafia JOAT, Mafia RB vs fruit vendor, cop, watcher
(10) Mafia rolecop, Mafia 2x Strongman vs town even-tracker, town jailkeeper, fruit vendor

For completeness:
(6) Mafia rolecop, Mafia 2x strongman VS town full tracker, town doctor, town backup

In (5), mafia knows we’re in 5. But in 10 mafia thinks we might be in 6. There we go. I understand now!

So mafia gains less than I thought they did in terms of usable knowledge: they either already know (5) or they know they have to worry about a tracker and protector.

However, the fruit vendor existing means mafia will not need to worry about power townies getting replaced by the backup. I think scared/paranoid mafia is worth it.

Nobody has answered how town’s strategy will differ if we know we’re in 5 or 10.

Also, someone should probably edit that wiki! I was so confused and when we start narrowing setups down when we get some power flips I’d like to not have to read diagonal matrix rows and whatnot.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby Madge » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:59 am UTC

Forgot to bold:

Do the fruit vendor and recipient receive generic “fruit” or is a specific type of fruit named? If the latter does the vendor pick it from a list or is it random?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby Diemo » Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:08 am UTC

The recipient receives a specific type of fruit. If the fruit vendor chooses a fruit, then the recipient will receive that fruit. If the fruit vendor only sends a target, then the specific fruit will be chosen by the mods.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:12 am UTC

Madge wrote:However, the fruit vendor existing means mafia will not need to worry about power townies getting replaced by the backup. I think scared/paranoid mafia is worth it.
Not thought about it too much, but I believe that as soon as a PR flips, mafia will know in those two situations whether they will have been replaced by a backup or not. Assuming therefore that you are talking about pre any flip, I'm not sure I see how this makes mafia more paranoid?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby plytho » Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:13 am UTC

Madge wrote:Nobody has answered how town’s strategy will differ if we know we’re in 5 or 10.
I had some ideas involving a claimed fruit vendor, but the setup has annoyingly countered them with mafia powers. Getting the watcher in (5) to watch the claimed fruit vendor is countered by the JOAT ninja and getting the jailkeeper in (10) to protect the claimed fruit vendor is countered by the strongman.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby wam » Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:00 am UTC

plytho wrote:
Madge wrote:Nobody has answered how town’s strategy will differ if we know we’re in 5 or 10.
I had some ideas involving a claimed fruit vendor, but the setup has annoyingly countered them with mafia powers. Getting the watcher in (5) to watch the claimed fruit vendor is countered by the JOAT ninja and getting the jailkeeper in (10) to protect the claimed fruit vendor is countered by the strongman.


It's balanced!

I think the biggest benefit to town of a fruit recipentant claim is that we know were only dealing with 1 anti town faction. Also based on diemos answer if we have a fruit recipient they should only claim they got fruit not the type.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby wam » Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:49 pm UTC

I am also worried that we are getting far to bogged down in setup/strategy for D2. So I would like the top two lynch targets from everyone.

Mine

1. SDK
2. Freezeblade
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby moody7277 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:03 pm UTC

jimbob's post here was why I was saying D1 that the SDK lynch would be more informative. All the setups people are discussing as possible started at 10/3, so we'd have two more mislyches before LYLO. It would seem then that if we are able to parse out scum, whether SDK himself or via the wagon analysis, it would be worth it. In regards to wam's post, I'd have to reread other people to decide.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby plytho » Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:21 pm UTC

My top 2 is

1. SDK
2. SDK

Actually, like moody I'll need to reread some people to get a proper 2nd although I'm not open to voting for anyone but SDK today (barring cop claims or other game-changing shenanigans).

I think I'll look into LaserGuy, jimbob and freezeblade next, but I'd like some more D2 content to base my reads on so don't expect those reads very soon (probably tomorrow).

@wam: why top 2 and why freezeblade?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby wam » Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:34 pm UTC

Top 2 as I don't want scum to be able to hide in the wagon on SDK. Freeze as he is still lurking and my read hasn't really changed since my d1 reads posts. Nothing day 2 has really changed any of my reads yet.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby SDK » Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:16 pm UTC

Sorry I'm late everyone! Forgot to mention that I was out of town for the weekend, then Monday and Tuesday for work as well. Meant to get on here for a quick post, but I forgot on Monday and Tuesday was just too busy with the drive home and getting the baby to bed.

But I'm here! I'll catch up in a minute. In the meantime, you can have some content I wrote right after nightfall...

Spoiler:
20 seconds too late!

plytho wrote:Please point out where you think you did.

Here.

Funnily enough, I also found an unposted thing on my computer when I came to work this morning. This was meant for in case I was lynched, but I guess I don't have to worry about being nightkilled tonight at least!

"Okay, that's it from me today.

Madge, Mark, mpolo and jimbob are my strongest town reads.
moody, LaserGuy and threetwoone are probably town, but not strong.
wam and plytho deserve a closer look.
My preferred lynches are freezeblade, Sabrar, Vicarin, in that order.

I should be able to check in tonight and then again right before deadline."

I wonder if plytho could be Vicarin's buddy? I love tying townies to my scum buddies as scum. Only flaw in that logic is that plytho was still trying really really hard to get me lynched still which would... mean that Vicarin can't be my buddy since I'm town obviously! Diabolical. He's like a mini version of scum me!

I also wonder if I'm wrong about Sabrar. But I suppose I always wonder that... Otherwise, not much has changed on that list, I think. I should take a look at the final votals once we get Vic's flip. If he's town, we might be screwed. Maybe a cop will clear my name tonight. That would be splendid.

Spoiler:
plytho wrote:List of grievances:
1)Rolefishing mark, keeping the question open after being aware it was a question about his role pm
2)not acknowledging you were aware of it being about his role pm even though you apparently were, and defending your motivation for asking the question with options that aren't relevant after you realized it was a role-pm question ("there's no mention of matrix 14 in the role pm")
3)forgetting what happened when you realized mark asked a question about his role pm. You claim you made a conscious decision to keep the question. Seems to me you'd remember this sort of decision.

4)active lurking. your only content until your question to mark is explaining matrix 14 to mpolo.
5)thinking I'm a PR and trying to lynch me.
SDK wrote: Thinking about what the mafia might know makes sense, but plytho is analyzing this from the view of a PR.


The first mistake was asking the question, not considering the possible role-fishing.
The second mistake was keeping the question and not considering the possible role-fishing even when you knew it was about marks role-pm.
The third mistake, which I'm really having trouble as seeing as anything but deliberate is not acknowledging we're talking about a role-pm here.
The fourth mistake is using your initial motivation for asking the question instead of the motivation for keeping the question. Why, from a townie perspective would you do this? You made a conscious decision to keep the question. That's obviously what we want to know about.
The fifth mistake is forgetting when exactly you asked this question.

That's a lot of mistakes and two, three and four are very hard to explain as a townie.

Ah, I think I see where we're miscommunicating now. So I wrote that question to Mark with the intention of getting him to clarify so Madge could focus elsewhere (if he was town) or so he could out himself (if he was a werewolf). I gave a few examples of what responses I expected I might get (a question about Matrix14, for example). That was my motivation for asking the question.

My motivation for keeping the question (or not retracting the question, if you like) was shadier, I admit, because I still didn't think about the fact that he might be asking about a possible PR even once it was apparent he was asking about his role PM. That was stupid of me. I never meant to imply that I kept the question because of the Matrix14 thing though since my motivation for writing it at first was before I saw that post (or at least before I internalized it). My motivation for keeping it had nothing to do with Matrix14, but I thought might still be beneficial in the other ways I mentioned (I expected it to be a question about his posting restriction, which it was).

I think that covers 3 and 4 at least? I recognize and apologize for the other mistakes. No harm done, luckily, but it was stupid.

If you are town, plytho, I want you to try to think as scum!SDK for a second. Your story makes perfect sense for how I'm covering my ass and making things up to justify role-fishing. What doesn't make sense to me, though, is why I would have role-fished in the first place. Can you honestly see me asking a question so blatant on purpose? Can you honestly think that I would try for such a high risk, low reward play? Just, take a minute, read my initial post asking for that info, and see if you can justify me even asking that question for your assumed reasons. I just don't see it.

Spoiler:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:On SDK, I really have a hard time seeing him as scum with his recent content in particular. I think he asked why people were town reading Sabrar, and I refer him to my second reads post for my last considered opinion.

Quoting your reasoning here then:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar - (slightly town, mostly gut feeling): He's continued to post reads that seem to come a little out of nowhere (plytho not mafia, but could be werewolf?? for example). He did at least give justifications for his earlier reads. I like his prod of Vicarin to explain his numbers question. I also like the pressure he's putting on SDK (I'm used to seeing SDK put that sort of pressure on others!). His vote on wam was a bit of a surprise, but that's the only thing I find that I don't particularly like in his recent content. Probably town.

@Sabrar - is there more to your belief that wam is scum than your "try-hard defence" comment? Would you explain it please? Also, is the tradition comment in any way important, because if so, I missed what it was about?

His pressure on me is fine. When he pointed out that he wasn't voting me (and even called that a possible town slip), I had second thoughts. When he pushed back with "you really don't understand?" the thought crossed my mind that he might just be applying pressure as town (I said this before). His vote proved that wasn't the case. Do you like his justification for his vote on me? I don't think his pressure on me lead to that vote naturally.


I'm really conflicted on moody. He votes me here, which is fine in context. I can readily believe that someone who was reading me as scum partway through the game might continue to do so - I am good at fabricating cases as scum (though I seriously doubt I'd have been able to drive up the motivation when I thought it was very likely I'd still be lynched, but whatever). So the vote is fine. What's less fine is tying me to specific individuals in the manner he did. Thinking about the effect of a flip is fine too... but the way he did so really rubs me the wrong way. Gotta flesh that out more... Maybe it's nothing.


Vicarin wrote:I have read Seaside, which got brought up, and that monster themed one where SDK lead everyone around as the SK while noone has any idea what was going on.

Both of those were great games. I love playing as SK. So much fun. For me at least. :mrgreen:


Obviously some of that is inconsequential now that we got Vicarin and Sabrar's flips. The Sabrar kill is interesting. Someone trying to prove me wrong? It doesn't really make sense as a kill to me, but I guess that doesn't point to anyone in particular? Maybe I'll give that some thought to that as I catch up. If Sabrar and I are both town it seems like a real easy way to get a double lynch. Or maybe I'm overestimating my own read of Sabrar...
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:27 pm UTC

Still haven't read D1.

From tone wam and plytho are almost certainly town. If SDK is scum, they have passed hard, but they are also energetically exploring other options. JimBob and FreezeBlade are likely town as well. (JimBob had taken a more neutral tone on SDK but that is expected from JimBob.) FreezeBlade gets points for having the same thoughts on wam and plytho.

Assuming JimBob's evidence is accurate I disagree with a few conclusions. If SDK is scum then Madge and FreezeBlade look good for not trying to weigh the lynch onto Vicarin. Not voting D1 is poor strategy as town, but it's even worse strategy as scum unless you don't care about the lynch. Madge not voting is very typical anyway so it's neutral. FreezeBlade not voting looks very bad if SDK is town.

Just from vote timing Mark looks like noobie scum is SDK is scum.

I think top 3 is probably more informative, top 2 still let's people hide in non-controversial picks. My top 4 right now to keep an eye on as I read D1 are:
SDK, Mark, mpolo and LaserGuy.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby SDK » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:39 pm UTC

wam wrote:On that note all through N1 my view.waa.that SDK was scum that had managed to weasel out the lynch

You thought VIcarin would flip town? Can you explain why?

That clearly does not align with what you posted end of Day 2 (here and here, maybe elsewhere).


plytho wrote:Conclusion: in my opinion anyone who received fruit should claim. If anyone claims fruit the fruit vendor should claim.

I agree with the first, but disagree with the second. If we have a Fruit Vendor, they are effectively an innocent child. That can be extremely powerful later in the game, and I don't think we benefit enough from them outing themselves now (there are plenty of vanillas left to get killed). Someone receiving Fruit gives us the same setup information because seriously, why would scum lie about receiving Fruit at this point? Just asking for a death sentence once we reach mylo and go for a mass claim.

Actually, you know what, I disagree with both. Scum are in the position where they have gained no information at this point (unless they had a successful rolecop, I guess). I think there's a good chance that they don't know exactly which setup we're in. Confirming that could be a huge boon to them. What do we gain? Why should I care if we have a cop or not? We're not at the point yet where we can hunt scum by puzzling through all this, so I don't see that we gain anything at this point. I think fruit vendor AND RECEIVER should keep quiet at this point.

... Checking Matrix14, there's only a 50/50 chance this matters. If we're in game 5, the mafia already know it. If we're in game 10, the mafia might think we're in game 6... so no big deal, actually. They're either up against a Tracker/Doctor/Backup (6) or a Even-Tracker/Jailer/Fruit Vendor (10) - not going to change how they really play the game. So, on third thought (sorry) the fruit receiver should claim, but not the vendor themself (reverting back to my first thought). Not a great gain, but no real loss. (jimbob's got it right, I think) (Whatever, if you want to keep it secret to keep the mafia paranoid about a backup like Madge said, that's fine. It doesn't really matter)

wam wrote:I think the biggest benefit to town of a fruit recipentant claim is that we know were only dealing with 1 anti town faction.
This is a good point. Doesn't help the mafia at all since they'd already known this much.



10-3... 8-3 (now)... 6-3... 4-3... oh, good, we have four mislynches available, assuming we're dealing with one scum team. Maybe we aren't totally screwed after all. I assumed we had three and thought it might be mylo if I'm lynched today.


wam wrote:I'm torn as I generally take the view information helps town but I can sort of see madges point. Will mull it over.

Did you check this for yourself when reading through Madge's post?

wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:If SDK is scum wam is town haha.
I think plytho is more town if SDK is scum!

I agree with both of these. I have some information in my role PM, however, that leads me to believe that SDK is town.

wam wrote:So had a quick look back at sabrar s and vics reads as looking at dead towns readsnis something we normally miss.

Sabrar - was convinced on Vic. Was also suspicious of SDK . Along with freeze and me.

Vic - viewed SDK as scum. Also was suspicious of Madge near end of day 1. Also links mpolo and SDK which is an interesting read.

Any conclusions based on all this?

wam wrote:I would like the top two lynch targets from everyone.

1. freezeblade
2. wam? Probably? Will confirm.


moody7277 wrote:jimbob's post here was why I was saying D1 that the SDK lynch would be more informative.

Would it have been more informative if I had flipped town instead of Vicarin? I think jimbob would be saying the exact same thing. Two townie wagons Day 1 is a real bad start.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:44 pm UTC

@SDK: If you are town you have some serious OMGUS goggles on haha.

@plytho: I'm not saying SDK is town, but I believe he sincerely is telling the truth in the above post about not intentionally rolefishing.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby SDK » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:51 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@SDK: If you are town you have some serious OMGUS goggles on haha.

Really? What do you mean? Apart from my (former) read on plytho, I don't think I've been very OMGUSy this game. Maybe you could make the case for my Sabrar read being OMGUS, but I think I had good reason for that one.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:26 pm UTC

SDK wrote:wam and plytho deserve a closer look.
My preferred lynches are freezeblade, Sabrar, Vicarin, in that order.

I haven't looked at the reasons yet, only the results. But from my current reads this list contains two confirmed town, two most likely to be town and one probably town. I'm interested to hear your case on FreezeBlade and Wam.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby SDK » Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:30 pm UTC

And four out of those five were voting me end of day, I think. Maybe you're right! Gotta recalibrate slightly with Vicarin's town flip, and I'll have a case on wam up at some point. I'll keep that in mind going forward, make sure it's not colouring my reads too much.

You can find my case on freezeblade here. He's the only one I'm sure is scum right now, with wam and moody being the two I want to devote the most attention to at the moment.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby wam » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:19 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
wam wrote:On that note all through N1 my view.waa.that SDK was scum that had managed to weasel out the lynch

You thought VIcarin would flip town? Can you explain why?

That clearly does not align with what you posted end of Day 2 (here and here, maybe elsewhere).



There's a logic fail in here that I think maybe a slip. This only works if you know SDK and Vicarin are opposite alignments. I thought that SDK was scum who got away with it. It doesn't therefore imply vic was town. I thought vic was scummy and wasn't sure overnight which way the flip would go. They could easily have been buddies.

SDK wrote:wam wrote:
I'm torn as I generally take the view information helps town but I can sort of see madges point. Will mull it over.

Did you check this for yourself when reading through Madge's post?


I don't understand the question?

SDK wrote:wam wrote:
So had a quick look back at sabrar s and vics reads as looking at dead towns readsnis something we normally miss.

Sabrar - was convinced on Vic. Was also suspicious of SDK . Along with freeze and me.

Vic - viewed SDK as scum. Also was suspicious of Madge near end of day 1. Also links mpolo and SDK which is an interesting read.

Any conclusions based on all this?


Thought it was obvious, both con town we had thought you were scum.
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