A biology-related statistic math problem

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andykhang
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A biology-related statistic math problem

Postby andykhang » Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:13 pm UTC

Supposed that your bodied host cell that won't die, but always active and non-cancer (That's mean that, while they wouldn't split and grow, they could mutate from the inside, and since they can't degrade, they could only improve). Supposed then you continuosly train yourself and expose it to the element so it can mutate, how much divergent in the positive direction would it have, by the end of it, assuming normal mutation rate ( approximately 0.5×10−9 per basepair per year) and normal mutation acceleration rate.

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Xanthir
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Re: A biology-related statistic math problem

Postby Xanthir » Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:17 pm UTC

"Can't die" and "can't become cancer" do not combine into "all mutations are positive". Most mutations are negative, and even if they're somehow magically prevented from killing the cell, they can still disable it or otherwise make it work badly in various ways.

So you'd just be an immortal in a painful, shitty body.
(defun fibs (n &optional (a 1) (b 1)) (take n (unfold '+ a b)))

andykhang
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Re: A biology-related statistic math problem

Postby andykhang » Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:21 pm UTC

I does said that they don't degrade though, so you could safely assume no negative mutation. I did some math though, and turn out only 1500 pair would change in the span of 1000 years or something.

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Re: A biology-related statistic math problem

Postby Xanthir » Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:29 pm UTC

Ah, you didn't list "can't degrade" in your first setup of the problem, so when you mentioned it later I thought you were just inaccurately glossing your previous constraints.

So yeah, we're in intensely magical territory here, with a hyper-intelligence watching every mutation and modeling its effects.

And yeah, assuming your base mutation rate in your OP is right, a single cell doesn't mutate very quickly, having base pairs measured in the single-digit billions.
(defun fibs (n &optional (a 1) (b 1)) (take n (unfold '+ a b)))

andykhang
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Re: A biology-related statistic math problem

Postby andykhang » Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:33 pm UTC

Yeah, that's like 1 protein/cell at best. How about more extreme environment, like being doused in radiation like in superheroes movies?

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Eebster the Great
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Re: A biology-related statistic math problem

Postby Eebster the Great » Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:06 am UTC

Not sure how to math this. What makes the mutations all positive? Whenever a mutation would occur that you subjectively dislike, it just doesn't occur? But mutations that you don't mind or think are great still randomly accumulate?

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Re: A biology-related statistic math problem

Postby SuicideJunkie » Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:58 pm UTC

Eebster the Great wrote:Not sure how to math this. What makes the mutations all positive? Whenever a mutation would occur that you subjectively dislike, it just doesn't occur? But mutations that you don't mind or think are great still randomly accumulate?
Also, how many subjectively negative mutations are allowed to be carried for how long, in the hope that combinations of them will be a net positive later?

andykhang
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Re: A biology-related statistic math problem

Postby andykhang » Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:05 am UTC

Well, not like the original rate of 1 protein/cell/1000 years actually would make a dent of the genetic variation significantly enough anyway. Since I'm only caring about deviation, let just said that the path is linear, and without all the curvy bullshit.


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