Wams chaos game day 5

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Sabrar
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:41 pm UTC

I have no night results.

I don't like how plytho seemed to take moody's claim for granted in the beginning and only thought about scum!moody later as an afterthought. It's like he already knew whether the claim was true.
For previously mentioned reasons I'm suspecting plytho to be bessie's buddy but this is just a hunch and I need to reread in detail.
We simply cannot risk a mislynch today. If we don't have clear consensus we should lynch moody and hope for cross-fire. bessie also defended moody so there is also a possibility that he is B.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby somitomi » Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:56 pm UTC

I have no results either.
plytho wrote:This is all assuming moody is indeed an indie and not just scum pretending.

I was wondering if the "fall guy" theory someone proposed was correct and if so, who was moody protecting, but on a quick reread it seems to be a consequence of jimbob mentioning the D1 slip again. What I find weird about it is moody's nonchalance considering the claim essentially put him on death row. Someone already mention how unlikely a town-aligned indie is in this game, so moody's claim is probably not entirely true. This post makes me think he's just trying to buy time.
moody7277 wrote:2. If I get lynched, I lose, do not pass go, do not collect 20 dollars and my self respect.

Considering town can't win with you alive, does this mean you have to be night-killed to win?

It's nice to see actual flips.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby moody7277 » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:18 pm UTC

@plytho & somi

Would you consider a Kobayashi Maru role to be high bastardy?
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:26 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:@plytho & somi

Would you consider a Kobayashi Maru role to be high bastardy?

I'm not familiar with that?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby moody7277 » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:28 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
moody7277 wrote:@plytho & somi

Would you consider a Kobayashi Maru role to be high bastardy?

I'm not familiar with that?


You're not familiar with Wrath of Khan? I think you're one of today's lucky 10,000.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:29 pm UTC

Are you saying you are in an unwinnable scenario? (after a quick Google turned up a star trek reference)
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby moody7277 » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:34 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Are you saying you are in an unwinnable scenario? (after a quick Google turned up a star trek reference)


The way I'm looking at things, it certainly seems that way to me.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:40 pm UTC

Assuming moody tells the truth I would consider that very bastardy and would have expected wam to remove a player from the game if s/he is unable to win anymore (a completely neutral kingmaker is quite bad in any game).

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby somitomi » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:42 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:You're not familiar with Wrath of Khan? I think you're one of today's lucky 10,000.

I wasn't familiar with it either. To answer the original question, the opening post explicitly says all factions can win, so it seems highly bastard to me.

Can we geat a deadline for D3?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby wam » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:51 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:
Can we geat a deadline for D3?


Tuesday evening UK time.

Also be aware I'm away this weekend so may not answer queries or do votals quickly
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:55 pm UTC

Hmm, yeah, an unwinnable role does not match the boldconfirmed rules. Unless you have a secret wincon you are unaware of, which would be extremely bastard.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby moody7277 » Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:11 pm UTC

For the sake of sportsmanship, I am still totally interested in nailing scum, which for the record I am figuring are Madge and plytho. When last we saw mpolo, I think my vote was still on him, but the whole dead/not dead thing is something I will have to ponder.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams chaos game night 2

Postby Madge » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:53 am UTC

Moody today, Sabrar tomorrow. Vote me off if I'm wrong.

Claimed non-town doesn't get to stay alive. We lost that way once before. Sabrar I'm 99.99% sure is scum but moody is 100% non-town.

vote: moody

If I had to put my money down I'd say moody is mafia C and Sabrar is mafia B. Just the vibe of the thing and the way they interacted with their buddies.

@mpolo: welcome back. sheep me for an easy win!

I'm interested if Plytho has anything to say.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Thu Sep 20, 2018 5:22 am UTC

What stood out for me while rereading bessie was 2 things:
- defending Madge D1 for being Madge (normally bessie would be attacking her non-stop). D2 she put her in the scum-pile but managed to avoid voting her, choosing ConMan instead (and she still had moody as a 'safe-lynch'.
- constantly delaying giving a read on plytho

I'm pretty sure one of them is her partner, unfortunately re-reading Madge won't help, I'll have to look at plytho today.

I'm at a loss for Mark's partner. My biggest town-read is somitomi and it would be very bastard from wam to resurrect scum!mpolo (unless it was a pre-determined mechanic and I have no idea how that would work).

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Thu Sep 20, 2018 5:57 am UTC

BoomFrog unfortunately didn't leave a town-scum list, he was too focused on Vicarin.

ConMan:
Spoiler:
Town
Plytho
Sabrar
bessie
Madge
somitomi
jimbobmacdoodle
moody
Scum
He got jimbob and bessie wrong and I don't agree with somitomi (and possibly plytho)

jimbob:
Spoiler:
Town
somitomi
Sabrar
plytho
bessie
ConMan
Madge
Scum

moody: indie
Basically where I'm at right now.

Vicarin:
Spoiler:
Town
Vicarin
Plytho
Sabrar
moody7277
bessie
Mark_Cangila
heurisically_alone
mpolo
Madge
BoomFrog
Scum
He later downgraded me and bessie.

plytho end of D1 (included because he was the target of one of the nk-s N1)
Spoiler:
plytho
Sabrar
Bessie

BoomFrog
Heuristically_alone
Jimbobmacdoodle
Mark
Somitomi
Madge

Vicarin
moody
mpolo
With mpolo remaining the main suspect so if mpolo is scum then it is quite feasible that they tried to kill him (same can probably be said for moody).

I also want to come back this at some point because I feel that plytho's issue was not what I described and he later shifted to it. It might just be misunderstanding though but I want to see clearly.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 1

Postby Sabrar » Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:21 am UTC

EBWOP: I missed this from BoomFrog:
BoomFrog wrote:Everyone who hasn't given a town to scum lost should at least give a bottom 3.

Vic, mpolo, Mark

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:25 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I also want to come back this at some point because I feel that plytho's issue was not what I described and he later shifted to it. It might just be misunderstanding though but I want to see clearly.
My issue was that ConMan's explanation for the discrepancy between the lists involved him manipulating mpolo's position.
Madge wrote:I'm interested if Plytho has anything to say.
I've been talking quite a bit so far, anything specific you want me to talk about?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby wam » Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:50 am UTC

Votals

Moody7277 - 1 - Madge

Not voting:Sabrar, Moody7277, Plytho, Somitomi, Mpolo

Deadline Tuesday evening uk time.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby Sabrar » Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:01 am UTC

plytho wrote:More on ConMan: I was wondering about the ordering of ConMan's list and noticed that the input (old target) was apparently the same as the player order from the OP with one exception: mpolo, who is 11 on the player list is in between 4 and 6 on the redirection list. I think this might mean ConMan manipulated the list for his benefit (eg: Originally mpolo redirected to him?) and may have messed with the new targets as well.
Your original issue was only that you thought ConMan changed the order whereas I've shown (and you agreed) that the order was logical by itself. You then later modified your suspicion because ConMan admitted having changed it but this is a shift in your suspicion that you've never referred to and you maintained the illusion that the reason of your attack stayed the same. Do you understand what I'm pointing out here?

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:07 am UTC

Oh, yeah, I get it. The original point about the order and calling ConMan suspicious for it was just some needling. I expected something along what jimbob said about another redirect happening. I only really thought ConMan was scum after his defense.

Btw, I'm not that comfortable with moody being happy to tag along until the end.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:08 am UTC

I'm about to get into a kayak for the rest of the day.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:46 am UTC

So you had this read-list where you say "I'd be surprised if scum shared these results". An hour later ConMan is at the bottom of the list but you are just 'needling' him about the order of the list. You vote him before he posts his defense but you "only really thought ConMan was scum after his defense".
This timeline does not add up.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:51 am UTC

Huh, that's right. I guess I took that more seriously than I remembered.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby somitomi » Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:52 am UTC

Madge wrote:Moody today, Sabrar tomorrow. Vote me off if I'm wrong.

I don't think town would have a chance to vote you off. If you're wrong, indie!moody gets lynched, two people die during the night and (unless we're lucky enough for crossfire) we're left in a classic Mexican standoff (1-1-1). At that point, the one townie is screwed: either one of the mafia is lynched and the other wins or the two mafia vote town off and have a duel during the night. I have no idea how that would resolve, but it's not a town win. It's possible for town to win if there's crossfire, but I wouldn't take the odds on that one.
Sabrar wrote:I'm at a loss for Mark's partner. My biggest town-read is somitomi and it would be very bastard from wam to resurrect scum!mpolo (unless it was a pre-determined mechanic and I have no idea how that would work).

I'm going to try looking at the possibilities here:
- mpolo had resurrection power (like bulletproof with a delay)
- one of the people dying N1 gets revived mechanic (possibly chosen by "other half method" used for tied votals)
- there's a necromancer who decided to revive mpolo
That's what I could think of, any other ideas?

@mpolo: please join the discussion, we're eager to hear what the afterlife's like.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:21 am UTC

I'm like 90% sure that mpolo is not Mafia C as Mark put him to L-1 in his opening post. It could have been a bus if Mark was convinced that mpolo would be lynched anyway but the tone of this does not seem to imply it (granted I also read Mark as town before due to these).
I'm 85% sure that mpolo is not Mafia B either as bessie should have put him at least a bit higher in this list if that were the case. But bessie could have been hoped that the lynch would be Vicarin anyway...

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Madge » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:55 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
Madge wrote:I'm interested if Plytho has anything to say.
I've been talking quite a bit so far, anything specific you want me to talk about?


Do you agree that moody and Sabrar are both scum?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Madge » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:58 pm UTC

@all: will you vote for Sabrar or moody today? What can I do to convince you? I handed in my assignment so I'm willing to devote some time to trying to formalise my reads, but I'm not gonna waste my time if you're going to ignore me and vote me off no matter what I do.

Assume that with a couple of hours' work I can come up with a reads list that is like 50% as good as whatever Sabrar comes up with, because realistically that's what's going to happen, because Sabrar is an evil, scum genius.

Mark my words: Sabrar mafia B, moody Mafia C.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Madge » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:59 pm UTC

@plytho: hopefully you'll vote moody with me. He's non-town. I swear it was the most recent game that scum made it to the end claiming indy.

@somitomi: I'm happy to vote Sabrar off. He's scum. I can't believe I didn't notice it before. It's so obvious now. I wish I could put it into words, but reads were never my strong point. I think I'm finally getting the hang of mafia and it only took me 6 years :lol:
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:05 pm UTC

@Madge: I'm very happy that you finally have time to play. Why do you think plytho is town? What do you think of his case against ConMan and the fact that he already had to retract his stance twice today?

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:07 pm UTC

BTW I agree that moody is C and I don't think anything short of a full-claim would convince me otherwise.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:09 pm UTC

Madge wrote:Do you agree that moody and Sabrar are both scum?
moody, yes probably. Sabrar, I don't think so.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Madge » Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:49 pm UTC

Plytho is actually my third scum pick, but I think I will wait on condemning him until we get flips from moody and sabrar as that might be endgame.

Full claim would solve a lot of my suspicion especially of plytho though as he's a big question mark
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:57 pm UTC

Madge wrote:Plytho is actually my third scum pick
So why are you asking him to vote with you? Shouldn't you try to convince somitomi and mpolo?

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:05 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:So you had this read-list where you say "I'd be surprised if scum shared these results". An hour later ConMan is at the bottom of the list but you are just 'needling' him about the order of the list. You vote him before he posts his defense but you "only really thought ConMan was scum after his defense".
This timeline does not add up.
I'm home now and I took some time to actually check the content behind those links. Here's what happened: I wasn't too happy with my reads, I didn't think there was enough evidence for strong scum reads and I didn't just want to vote with public opinion. So when I dug up that stuff on Madge and ConMan (and boomfrog was saying his weird stuff too at the time) I felt I had at least some evidence to sort and vote. Not very strong evidence, but at least evidence. My mind shifted when ConMan defended himself and I'm surprised you say that shift wasn't noticeable because I was giddy with excitement about catching a slip. I misremembered because I didn't feel my earlier evidence was all that strong.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:12 pm UTC

Btw, kayaking was a lot of fun, the weather was nice and I'm sure I'll feel my muscles tomorrow.

Mpolo knows he's be back, right?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby moody7277 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:19 pm UTC

As much as it annoys me to say, plytho's idea of the current state of the game being 3-1-1-1 makes the most sense. What that means is that for town to have a chance, they have to lynch someone with a kill. That is not me. I think town banking on scum firing at eachother is pie in the sky.

Process of elimination time:
--Somi is a fairly solid town read, he's out of the votables.
--Not sure what to think of mpolo, wish he was actually playing since he's back into the game and all.
--My impression of Sabrar has been all over the board. Given the most likely current setup, Madge being virulently anti-Sabrar can't be distancing, but it also doesn't in and of itself clear Sabrar since there are two different mafias afoot. Nevertheless, I'm not very convinced at the prospect of scum!Sabrar.

Which leaves Madge (totes scum), and plytho (70-80% sure).
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:26 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:As much as it annoys me to say, plytho's idea of the current state of the game being 3-1-1-1 makes the most sense.
Well, that really annoys me too. You're way too comfortable with that state of the game. Even if you're mafia that scenario leads to your loss.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby moody7277 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:36 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
moody7277 wrote:As much as it annoys me to say, plytho's idea of the current state of the game being 3-1-1-1 makes the most sense.
Well, that really annoys me too. You're way too comfortable with that state of the game. Even if you're mafia that scenario leads to your loss.


Comfort has nothing to do with it, it's the minimal theory. We have a mafia B, we have a mafia C. Neither one has been eliminated, so unless they started at three ( :? :shock: :evil: ), they have one apiece now. Then there's me. Which leaves three people left that can be fitted into town, unless someone else is playing Kobayashi Maru.

As for "that scenario leads to your loss", I've already lost since jimbob brought up the whole "wait, isn't he an independent" thing mid D2. I just don't want scum to win unless I'm actually part of scum.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:53 pm UTC

@moody: you claimed to be non-town of your own free will, could have tried to wiggle out of jimbob's finding. Also we already know that you claim to be a non-killing indie but that doesn't help you convince anyone. Why don't you full claim if already lost, explaining how a town-adjacent indie is supposed to work in this setup? It would just help us, especially if you have any sort of night-results.

plytho wrote:I'm surprised you say that shift wasn't noticeable because I was giddy with excitement about catching a slip.
Well, tone doesn't always carry over in a written form. I saw analytical!plytho in those posts.
plytho wrote:I misremembered because I didn't feel my earlier evidence was all that strong.
The way you misremembered Mark not being scum in Alien Warfare? Again I find this hard to believe coming from you.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby mpolo » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:58 pm UTC

I was busy today. I haven't read anything yet. I was vanilla according to my initial PM, but the flavor could be seen as suggesting that I would survive am attempt on my life possibly sort of. I remain town, with a double vote. (Since it will appear in the vitals, not a lot of point trying to be cagey about it.)
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