Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby somitomi » Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:27 pm UTC

Dammit. I started typing up a reads post in the morning hoping to get it out sometime early afternoon, but obviously that didn't happen. I'm gonna get it out the gate ASAP, apologies for the extreme tardiness.
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby bessie » Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:03 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Seriously? I did the analysis because Vicarin asked me to, I never did say that it was to support my theory. But you are fully aware that you tend to do the analysis, both as town and as scum, you even pointed these out:
Yes but your are saying that I am scum because I didn’t do a confirmation post analysis and it is an integral part of your theory:
Sabrar wrote:- she knows she's supposed to conf-post analysis but she views my Joker as an intentional gambit and is unsure how to react because she can't put down an honest opinion
- therefore she deliberately skips that part
Why are you distancing from it now?


Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote: For example me finding bessie scummy for calling my content 'light' when she herself notes that more than half of the players have little content is not a meta-read, I would find that scummy in anyone else as well.
Where was this?
Here:
bessie wrote:Sabrar – Is Sabrar? His content feels light for Sabrar
1. Nice selective quoting. Let’s see the whole thing.
bessie wrote:Sabrar – Is Sabrar? His content feels light for Sabrar, but it could just feel that way because wam preempted the anticipated eight page argument in his first post. I don’t agree with Sabrar’s safe claim evaluation, and his meta read of me has been discussed.
I didn’t call your content light, and I wasn’t scum reading you for your content level. When I made that post, I wasn’t even leaning scum on you yet.
2. Where did you scum me for this read?

Woof
moody7277
Vicarin
BoomFrog
Zenii
mpolo
Mark_Cangila
SuperJedi224
wam
somitomi
Sabrar
plytho
Grrr

Vote: plytho

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:19 pm UTC

bessie wrote:[
BoomFrog wrote: bessie - I'm having a lot of trouble here. Her reaction to Sabrar's attack is not what I expected, but I am not confident what alignment the difference indicates. @Bessie: What do you think Sabrar's alignment is?
Hmm, what did you expect? Do you also have a bessie-town-meta checklist, as Sabrar does?
No I have a model of each player that changes with every game. I try to predict how they will act, which is of course based on their past actions, but I don't nievly assume people will repeat themselves.

BoomFrog wrote: @Bessie: What do you think Sabrar's alignment is?
When I made this post I suspected something. I have since changed my mind, and I do not currently lean town on Sabrar.[/quote]
So you suspected something townie about Sabrar but changed to scum lean? I'm just double checking because "suspect" usually means something negative. What made you suspect he was townie originally?

Why not vote for Sabrar instead of plytho? What is more scummy about plytho?

I agree Sabrar's whole case on Bessie feels very off.

Unvote wam
Vote Sabrar
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:26 pm UTC

Oh BoomFrog, one of these days you'll learn to calibrate your model on me... Too bad it's not this one.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:06 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Why are you distancing from it now?
How am I distancing? My theory (as previously explained) is that you felt obligated to do it but couldn't decide how to react so in the end dropped it.

bessie wrote:I didn’t call your content light
You literally called my content light.
bessie wrote:I wasn’t scum reading you for your content level.
You didn't scum-read me yet but it provided a reason. Why else would you state it if not to use it in the future for a read?
bessie wrote:2. Where did you scum me for this read?
Not sure what you mean here but I immediately noticed this and it reinforced my scum-read on you. I just didn't mention it in the thread right away.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:13 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:But if you're really curious my scum-lean comes from:
Intentional?
Nope, was in the process of writing it out when I interrupted myself with something else and after I came back to this I forgot I started to put this down (and somehow managed to skip it during preview as well). But here is what I envisioned in my mind happening:
- bessie is looking forward to scum-read me :mrgreen:
- suddenly she's scum and knows I'm town so she has to proceed carefully
- she is very self-aware that I might get suspicious if she tries to sheep me again
- she looks for any excuse to be suspicious of me and latches onto me 'discouraging' discussion
- she knows she's supposed to conf-post analysis but she views my Joker as an intentional gambit and is unsure how to react because she can't put down an honest opinion
- therefore she deliberately skips that part
This is your case right? And your scum read of Vic and Mark is mostly based on your read of Bessie being correct? How confident are you that your bessie read is correct? So confident that it justifies not taking a serious look at any other players?
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:31 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:This is your case right? And your scum read of Vic and Mark is mostly based on your read of Bessie being correct? How confident are you that your bessie read is correct? So confident that it justifies not taking a serious look at any other players?
That was my original case. The way how bessie reacted to it reinforced my read. Vic and Mark are tied to bessie (and to each other) neck and neck. Vicarin also has been relentlessly strawmaning even after I explained myself many times. Mark is just lurky.
I did take a look at other players, if I'm wrong here then I would investigate {plytho, wam, Zen} further.

Do you feel that bessie is trying to solve the game? Or is she spending most of her time arguing against a read that no-one else will follow?

@Vicarin: that reminds me. You never explained your vague town-feeling on Mark and haven't mentioned him at all apart from the lurking bit. And yet he is in your top half, well above the other lurkers.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:57 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Vicarin also has been relentlessly strawmaning even after I explained myself many times.
I know you weren't paying that much attention in Chaos since you were scum and happy to lynch anyone. But this is just how Vic argues. You can see it in our out of game gojoe discussion about the value of gambits. It's not alignment indicative.
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby wam » Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:59 pm UTC

I don't buy sabrars supposed scum team. And tbh sabrar you don't have e great form on calling the team day 1. Your not amy!

I'm happy with my vote where it is. Should be online a lot before deadline.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:59 pm UTC

Kipp:
Where is the player in seat 7? I saw him come in at some point, but the seat is still empty.

François:
He played one hand then went to the bar. I think he is flirting with the bartender.

Kipp:
I'll send someone over to remind him that there's still a game on.

François:
Oh, what's happening at seat 8? He just left the room in quite a hurry. Is he coming back?

Kipp:
I don't know. I guess we'll find out.


mpolo has been mod prodded.

somitomi has requested to be replaced. Deadline will remain as-is for the time being. Just under 24 hours left.


BoomFrog (1): wam
Superjedi (2): Zenii, moody
plytho (3): Vicarin, SuperJedi, bessie
bessie (2): Sabrar, plytho
Sabrar (2): Mark, BoomFrog

Not voting: somitomi*, mpolo

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:05 pm UTC

Fun how two of the people voting for me don't have an explanation :roll:

I'll order my list later tonight and I'll also provide a retort for bessie as her defense is flawed.
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby moody7277 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:16 pm UTC

You know what, I'll say wagon ho on bessie. I just want someone else on her in order to switch so I'm not making a tie.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby wam » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:30 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:You know what, I'll say wagon ho on bessie. I just want someone else on her in order to switch so I'm not making a tie.


We have enough time to fix ties...
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby moody7277 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:34 pm UTC

wam wrote:
moody7277 wrote:You know what, I'll say wagon ho on bessie. I just want someone else on her in order to switch so I'm not making a tie.


We have enough time to fix ties...


I'm a bit nervous over the unusually large outbreak of the lurks this game, but there does seem to be a lot that goes on in the early morning my time.

Unvote

Vote: bessie
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:00 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:
wam wrote:
moody7277 wrote:You know what, I'll say wagon ho on bessie. I just want someone else on her in order to switch so I'm not making a tie.


We have enough time to fix ties...


I'm a bit nervous over the unusually large outbreak of the lurks this game, but there does seem to be a lot that goes on in the early morning my time.

Unvote

Vote: bessie

What has convinced you that bessie is scum?
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby moody7277 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:11 pm UTC

I'm convinced that bessie and Vicarin are co-aligned, and that Sabrar is the main driver of her wagon. If she flips scum, Vicarin is the obvious D2 lynch and Sabrar and plytho look very good. If she flips town, Vicarin looks better and Sabrar looks very bad. It's good pot odds.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:24 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
Mark_Cangila wrote:I honestly feel like the conf post issue is a red herring and judt an extension of Vic Sabrar and bessie fighting a lot. The issue is that a conf post analysis can't happen if there are no interesting conf posts. So please, both of you, stop for the time being.
Do you think someone's deliberatly using a red herring? If so, who?
Mark, why aren't you answering?
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:45 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Not voteable:
BoomFrog, plytho, Sabrar, wam, mpolo, (Vicarin+bessie)


Then, next page...

moody7277 wrote:Vote: bessie


Uh, what? Run me through this amazing 180 on your reasoning. Do you think it's impossible that bessie and Sabrar are both town?

@Sabrar: if you're just going to do stuff like claim I'm strawmaning your argument (I'm not, your argument is just weak) then I'm not feeling terribly motivated to actually respond to your incessant poking when you've clearly made up your mind and are immune to any further evidence to the contrary.

Mark is lurky, but he's been a bit less lurky. Also, he's pretty much always been lurky in every game he's been in. Unless you've got any particular reason to go for him on D1, then other people are way better as lynches realistically. There's been a ton of blatantly weird scummy behaviour this game.

Sabrar wrote:I did take a look at other players, if I'm wrong here then I would investigate {plytho, wam, Zen} further.


Why those? If you're strongly convinced you've got the entire scum team in {Vicarin,bessie,Mark}, then why would they be suspicious?

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:49 pm UTC

SuperJedi224 wrote:
bessie wrote:If you are having difficulty finding something to comment on, it might be helpful to make a reads list.

As requested:

This is about what I have so far, though basically all of this is still just a guess:

Bessie: Slight town lean
Frog: Generally neutral
Mark: Neutral
Moody: Slight town lean
Polo: Neutral
Plytho: Slight scum lean.
Sabrar: Generally neutral, slight scum lean
Somi: Mostly neutral.
Vicarin: Generally neutral, slight town lean.
Wam: Neutral.
Zenii: Slight scum lean

I actually compiled most of this list last night, but wasn't able to finish it until just now. With that, I would like to change my vote:

vote plytho
SuperJedi, you're saying it took you quite a while to compile this list. To me this means you spent a lot of thought on it. Is that correct?

That must mean you have at least some reasons for your leans? You read our posts and liked some things and disliked others.

We really really need you to share those things. Why am I your scummiest read? What's the difference between "generally neutral", "mostly neutral" and "neutral"? What makes moody a slight town lean?

I'm pretty sure the only reason you're not getting lynched today is because you're the newbie (particularly in the newbie game). That's the reason I'm not voting for you now. But if you keep playing like this I'll probably argue you should be lynched D2 or maybe D3.

Is there anything in particular you're struggling with? We're here to help. I'm trying to ask you a lot of direct questions here, does that help?
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:50 pm UTC

town
plytho
Sabrar
Vicarin
Somitomi(/Madge, probably)
moody
Zen
BoomFrog
mpolo
Mark (could be higher if he answered my question)
wam
bessie
scum

dunno: SuperJedi


A bunch about bessie:

bessie wrote:
plytho wrote:Refusing to answer because I don't have enough content is absolutely ridiculous. For one, I'm not demanding you produce more content, I'm asking you to respond to my point. That's a false equivalence. Also, does this mean you won't answer questions from Mark, Somi or superjedi because they don't have enough content?
I’m not refusing to answer your question because you don’t fulfill a word count requirement. I am postponing answering your question until you contribute some content that is not directly related to Sabrar-safeclaim-townslip-modquestion. And I’m not refusing to answer any questions from anyone, your accusation is hmm, let me think of a way to describe it ... false equivalence?
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
One, these are your words:
bessie wrote:I think plytho would be in a better position to demand content from others if he provided some himself.
That sounds like you think I haven’t provided enough content to warrant an answer from you?
Two: I was contributing content that wasn’t directly related to the Sabrar-safeclaim-townslip-modquestion. In fact, my question wasn’t directly related to it.
Three: you didn’t respond when I pointed it out the first time and you didn’t respond when I prodded you so yeah, you are refusing to answer. (Four: I’m not sure what false equivalence you’re seeing)

My response to your question: I don’t see how I shifted the question. I felt my point was that the person asking the question was doing so because they wanted to be seen publicly asking it. I did not like your response, which you narrowed the scope of my comment when you implied that scum would only do it to act surprised by the answer (and you also added a comment that made it specific to the case in point). I never said anywhere that scum wanted to do it to act surprised, only that they wanted to be seen asking.


Here’s the conversation again for context:
bessie wrote:
plytho wrote:
bessie wrote:
plytho wrote:I think Sabrar is likely town because of the no comment reply from LaserGuy. This implies Sabrar hasn't asked the question before and is basing his points on his reasoning about what semi open and non bastard means.
Why couldn't someone of any alignment ask the mod a question by pm, then ask the same question in thread because they want to be seen asking the question, or because they want the answer public, even if they know the answer would be no comment?
Town would (should) state the answer to the question before publicly asking the mod. Or at least not pretend like the answer is something else.

Scum definitely could ask questions privately before asking them publicly and act surprised by the answer. But, I don't this particular question would be asked by scum as they sort of know the answer.
Yes but you’re ignoring my point that perhaps scum wants to be seen publicly asking the question.


So, from my point of view, the context of the conversation is my original point about Sabrar. I don’t explicitly state anything about surprise but I feel it’s a pretty obvious part of it. Reworded: “The no comment reply surprised Sabrar, therefore he’s not likely to have asked it before.”
Bessie seems to be arguing from the pov that her response is the only relevant context.
Why couldn't someone of any alignment ask the mod a question by pm, then ask the same question in thread because they want to be seen asking the question, or because they want the answer public, even if they know the answer would be no comment?

This is disingenuous because the answer to this question without the context of my point is quite different from the answer within the context of my point. Bessie is attacking me for not explicitly saying scum might want to be seen asking the question and for including “surprise” and “a comment specific to the case in point” which is, to me, exactly what we’re talking about and I’ve already mentioned scumbrar might have wanted to be seen asking the question because that’s what he might think townbrar would do.
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:56 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:There's been a ton of blatantly weird scummy behaviour this game.

Could you make a list of all that blatantly weird scummy behaviour?
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:58 pm UTC

Wait, really? I've given all the examples that I've found scummy in my reads, you want a comprehensive list from the entire game?

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:02 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:I'm convinced that bessie and Vicarin are co-aligned, and that Sabrar is the main driver of her wagon. If she flips scum, Vicarin is the obvious D2 lynch and Sabrar and plytho look very good. If she flips town, Vicarin looks better and Sabrar looks very bad. It's good pot odds.
I like moody's poker reference, but I don't like his hedging here. (I also just noticed the double space after a period and I don't know how to feel about that.)
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:05 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:Wait, really? I've given all the examples that I've found scummy in my reads, you want a comprehensive list from the entire game?
Just the blatant and weird stuff :wink:
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby plytho » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:06 pm UTC

Not the:
Vicarin wrote:A lot of this behaviour has been consistent with people's town play in the past, but I'm still somewhat suspicious of it.
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:16 pm UTC

Ah, I see the issue. What I find blatantly weird scummy play is consistent with a fair few people's town play in the past :P

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:39 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:Ah, I see the issue. What I find blatantly weird scummy play is consistent with a fair few people's town play in the past :P

You know scummy means "likely to be done by scum" not "things I disagree with" right?

Also, what do you think our odds are of getting the D1 lynch right this game?
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby plytho » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:03 am UTC

Bedtime here, another busy day tomorrow so I won't be doing any more analysis. I should be able to answer questions.

I will be traveling near deadline so I might not be around.
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:13 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
Vicarin wrote:Ah, I see the issue. What I find blatantly weird scummy play is consistent with a fair few people's town play in the past :P

You know scummy means "likely to be done by scum" not "things I disagree with" right?


I've already explained a bit of my PoV on this sort of thing way back in NNYM:

Vicarin wrote:
bessie wrote:
Vicarin wrote:You know that town wants to be easily readable as town right? Stacking barrels upon barrels of wine isn't exactly making this easier for anyone else to get a decent read on you. At least be consistent, so we don't lynch you early every game while you say you were just being random.
I’m pretty sure scum would like to be easily readable as town too. And I don’t think being consistent is going to be all that helpful either, if someone’s meta is to be consistently unhelpful.


Well, when I said be consistent, I meant the way he was scumreading people for the joke confirmations when he'd done one himself. And yes, scum would like to be easily readable as town too, that's why this game is interesting. If someone's meta is consistently unhelpful or random though, they're going to attract lynches no matter what side they're on simply because there's no way to tell whether something's a slip or just them being random. Which is the current problem we're having with PW. It's looking like unless a PR gets a definitive result on him, we're going to have no damn idea whether they're town or scum for the rest of the game.


Just because someone has done something blatantly anti-town in the past as town doesn't mean that I'm not going to call them out for scummy behavior now. I view stuff like mpolo's super lurking and non-controversial hedging statements as pretty damn scummy. He's done them in the past as town, but that doesn't stop that behaviour from being anti-town, in that it's not useful at all for sorting him. I think I had a conversation with someone about how "things I disagree with" IS usually used by people as a basis for scum reading people (because they can't imagine a town person acting in such a way), and the disagreements about this form the core of Mafia as a game, but I can't seem to find it...


And for the odds? Wild guess: 45%, I think we've got enough information for a good shot. What do you think?

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby SuperJedi224 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:32 am UTC

plytho wrote:SuperJedi, you're saying it took you quite a while to compile this list. To me this means you spent a lot of thought on it. Is that correct?


Yes, I suppose so. Though honestly, part of the reason it took so long was that I started working on it kind of late to begin with.

plytho wrote:Why am I your scummiest read?


Actually, at this point I'm between you and Sabrar on that; I'm less confident about Zen though.

plytho wrote:What's the difference between "generally neutral", "mostly neutral" and "neutral"?


The first two would probably mean that it took me somewhat longer to file them in the neutral bucket, or that I moved them into the neutral bucket from a slight lean while I was compiling the list. Other than that, there isn't much of a difference.

plytho wrote:What makes moody a slight town lean?


I'm actually leaning a bit further on the town side on moody than I was at the time I posted the original list (mainly because he looks the least likely to be scum at this point), but I'm still not entirely convinced.

plytho wrote:I'm trying to ask you a lot of direct questions here, does that help?


I guess some of them are helping, anyway.

[It would be nice if we had a horizontal line BB code]

Tentative list:

LIKELY TOWN
Moody
Bessie
Vic
DON'T KNOW
Mark
Frog
Polo
Wam
Somi
LIKELY SCUM
Zen
Plytho
Sabrar

I have a bus to catch soon, so I'll have to leave it at this for now. If possible, I'll try to get in another post before deadline.

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Zenii
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Zenii » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:52 am UTC

Ordered

Town:

Sabrar

I was in the same boat of confusion regarding Sabrar's case on bessie. My initial thought process was along the same line as Vic's and bessie's. If a person has shown to behave in a way as either alignment, then their behavior is obviously NAI. However, Sabrar's explanation of how he defines meta and the recent restatement of his point clears up the reasoning:

Sabrar wrote:Anyway I generally call it a meta-read if it's dependent on the actual player, i.e. if presented with the same content/circumstances from another player my conclusions would be different.

My theory (as previously explained) is that you felt obligated to do it but couldn't decide how to react so in the end dropped it.


I think the root of the conflict over this has to do with Sabrar's usage of the word meta. He's not arguing that it is uncharacteristic of townBessie to not make a confirmation post analysis; he's arguing that he believes bessie didn't do so in this game because of the above. That being said, this is weak, and the case built upon confirmation bias. The same was done to me in Stellaris. On the onset, he presumed that my boisterousness was an attempt to take control of town and lead astray; and everything that I did was interpreted in that light. I've learned that this isn't a scum trait of Sabrar, however. Just a harmful one.

Overall, I'm town reading. His play/tone is reminiscent of NNY and late D2 Stellaris. There are a couple of discrepancies though. @Sabrar what about plytho is pinging you? Also, please thoroughly explain your Boom read.

Vic

His posts have been characteristically off the cuff, and his tone lacks guilt/shame. There were a few discrepancies/suspicions that I had, but they've been addressed.

plytho

plytho is pretty consistent in that he consistently fluctuates in my reads. I had him as quite likely town earlier, but I need to reevaluate my reasoning. I think it's odd that he initially forgot about me in his read post. It makes me suspect that he isn't genuinely trying to piece the game together. On the other hand, I like questions and avenues he's been pursuing. His argument with bessie is also highly reminiscent of crossover. He's not a play for me today and I'm leaving here for now. I'll reassess tomorrow if we're both still around.

Boom

Like Vic, his posts also come off as careless/stream-of-conscious-like. He also has consistently prodded the game along. Some speculation that I have is that his stream-of-conscious tone may be falsely constructed. For example, this post:
BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Lol, that completely reversed my read on you.

Ooo, ooo! Am I scum now? What gave you the townie feeling originally? Voting superJedi? hmm...

My tiny Sabrar clone is just smirking at me... :?

Sabrar wrote:On second thought you might have misread it as either alignment.
Oh, I was scum and then town. But now back toward "Is BoomFrog". I see. So scummy for voting SuperJedi? Or scummy for no gambit?
It's not like he was ninja'd so why react to both posts? I also suspect that Boom locked onto the mpolo post when no one else did due to scumBoom's lack of ignorance of townMpolo's alignment. Both of these points are speculative though, and I think Boom's overall play trends toward town.

bessie

Her play so far feels like Xover and NNY as opposed to Stellaris. I immediately felt something off with (scum) bessie in Stellaris, as she came right out of the gates with, what I felt to be, an unnatural assault on nothing. Her posts here look like she is trying to formulate rather than force her reads. I also think that her alignment will become obvious as the game intensifies.


On the Fence:

Moody

I liked the content he was producing early on, his initial list (sans his wam read), and the fact that he was bringing up original observations (e.g lack of gambit from Boom and plytho's read on Sabrar) without provocation. I feel his more recent posts, though, have been mimicy. And as alluded to, his wam read doesn't seem justified. I think if wam is scum, moody is a good contender for his mate.


No read/Vig:

mpolo, Mark, somi


Scum:

Jedi
Ignored Boom's question, and has shown little effort to participate, despite viewing the thread and posting elsewhere. This post also looks like he was prodded from the outside:
So I guess I'm supposed to try posting here more often.

I think the idea of not lynching him because he's a newbie is silly, and I'm suspicious of that being used as a reason to not vote for him.

wam

In addition to the reasons stated before, I also agree with these:
Sabrar wrote:This pinged me as overdefensive because Vicarin's question wasn't really addressed to him.
(@wam, I don't get the joke?)
plytho wrote:
Hey lynch me all ypu want but do something unusual for this forum and actually look at the reads of dead town.
This is weirdly defensive for someone with *checks*
Spoiler:
zero votes.


____________________________________


Spoiler:
Sabrar wrote:
SuperJedi224 wrote:So you suspect there are approximately 1 1/7 vigilantes?
Don't know, haven't calculated that part because that's not how the math works. And while you're here why not answer the many questions people have asked you?

Vicarin wrote:Actually, yeah, how did you come to that conclusion exactly Sabrar? I can't see how it matches up with the probabilities we both posted.
Why not? How would you go about and calculate this? Because I have exact probabilities based on hypergeometric distribution and those give a ~15% chance of there being at least 2 Vig-s, after which it's pretty easy to solve for 0.85*p + 0.15*(2*p2+2p*(1-p))=1

Vicarin wrote:@Sabrar: You've got to take into account that if you're a vig in this game, you're more likely to be in a game with 2 or 3 vigs due to observing that your own card is a King.

I don't have my numbers for probabilities of 1, 2 and 3 vigs in the game in front of me, but if you're saying that there's a 15% chance of at least 2 vig without looking at your card, and there's about a 1.5% chance of 3 vig (from the earlier stat that I asked about, the likelihood of having 3 of a single type of PR), then the probabilities of being in a 1 vig, 2 vig, or 3 vig game after seeing you're a vig are about 58%, 36% and 6% respectively, using Bayes.
Neither of you guys are considering the quantified matrix theorem, which clearly states that x equals negative b plus or minus the square root of a^2 + b^2 = c^2 chi squared radians.


Vote: wam (willing to switch back to Jedi as well)

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Mark_Cangila
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:18 am UTC

Reads it is:
Town lean:
Vicarin (I like his content. Wide and varied.)

Neutral:
Somitomi (They don't have many posts but the posts that they have are pretty good.)
Zenii (I like some of their ideas regarding the Wam, BF, SuperJedi argument but wish they had more data)

Scum Lean:
Super Jedi (Lurking and he said both that there were more messages than he was used to, and that this is a slower game format, which I find odd.)
Sabrar (Red herring argument and tunnel onto that argument)

I'm posting a few at a time so I can get more content out. Next four coming in an hour maybe.

plytho wrote:
plytho wrote:
Mark_Cangila wrote:I honestly feel like the conf post issue is a red herring and judt an extension of Vic Sabrar and bessie fighting a lot. The issue is that a conf post analysis can't happen if there are no interesting conf posts. So please, both of you, stop for the time being.
Do you think someone's deliberatly using a red herring? If so, who?
Mark, why aren't you answering?

On it. Sorry. I'm pretty split on this. I don't like this line of questioning from Sabrar. It reminds me of Vicarin's demand that bessie look thru old games in WOT3 I believe. I'm not sure it is deliberate though. I find it suspicious enough for the scum lean above and the vote (Which I am keeping.)

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SuperJedi224
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby SuperJedi224 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:42 am UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:Super Jedi (Lurking and he said both that there were more messages than he was used to, and that this is a slower game format, which I find odd.)


The previous forum mafia games I've played were typically 48-hour phases, so a week-long day phase is in fact a slower format. They also did not have the same volume of discussion day 1.

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SuperJedi224
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby SuperJedi224 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:45 am UTC

Honestly, which forum this is might have something to do with that.

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Mark_Cangila
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:56 am UTC

Ah ok. Still scum lean for lurking however.

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Vicarin
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:30 am UTC

I'm finding it somewhat weird that SuperJedi and bessie have town-scum lists that fairly closely match mine. Hmmmm...

At this point, SuperJedi has put up a town-scum list, but hasn't explained pretty much any of them, and has been dodging questions, such as here:

SuperJedi224 wrote:
plytho wrote:Why am I your scummiest read?


Actually, at this point I'm between you and Sabrar on that; I'm less confident about Zen though.


This response does absolutely nothing towards answering plytho's question.

If they're town, then they're really not managing to look like it.

Seeing as quite a few people are strongly reading plytho as town and at least he's putting out content that helps with continuing to sort him in the future, right now I'll go for:

Unvote

Vote: SuperJedi224


People I'd like to lynch: plytho, SuperJedi224, mpolo.

I kind of buy Zenii's theory about Sabrar just being really, really, stubborn as to explaining his play. Just going to be really tiresome trying to stop him going after bessie every day (and vice versa) if they're both town.

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BoomFrog
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:59 am UTC

@Vic before Zen's post I'd guess about 25% of getting it right. Now I'm feeling a little better so maybe 35% chance. I still feel like things don't add up. Sabrar vs Bessie could be T vs T. But still I feel off about Sabrar's general attitude.

I'm willing to move back to wam though.

Unvote
Vote Wam
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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Vicarin
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:04 am UTC

Actually, how'd you go from hesitantly townie on Sabrar on page 7 to voting for Sabrar near the top of page 9? He'd already made his case on bessie by the time you'd made your reads list.

What's your ordered town-scum list?

Are you completely against lynching SuperJedi D1?

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BoomFrog
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:52 am UTC

I said in my reads list that my read of Sabrar was uncertain and I needed to think about his attack on Bessie more. When I reread him in iso I realized how little useful content he has.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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BoomFrog
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:54 am UTC

Town to scum list is mostly the same but Sabrar is under Mark now (but still very uncertain)

Yes, I'm against lynching the one new player D1 in a newbie game. I'm willing to give him one more game day to dig himself out of his hole.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos


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