0452: "Upcoming Hurricanes"

[layzee]

Well, using significant guesstimation the 90W longitude the wave crosses at about -1, making it a -sin(x) where using further guesstimation the frequency of the wave is ~36. Using an earlier estimation for above equator shift of +7 this would make it Hurricane (-sin(36) +7).

[scarletmanuka]

Well, using significant guesstimation the 90W longitude the wave crosses at about -1, making it a -sin(x) where using further guesstimation the frequency of the wave is ~36. Using an earlier estimation for above equator shift of +7 this would make it Hurricane (-sin(36) +7).

You fail at trigonometry. Note that the graph of y = -\sin(36) +7 looks like this (axes not shown):
__________________________________

By frequency, do you mean period (in degrees)? If so then you want y = k\sin (\pi x / 18 + a) + 7 where k is half the difference in degrees between the y-coordinate of the peaks and troughs, and a can be determined after this by substituting y=-1, x=90 as per your suggestion. (Note: I am assuming y and x are in degrees, but sin takes its argument in radians. If you want sin to take its argument in degrees, then use y = k\sin (10x + a) + 7, where k is the same as before but a will be different. Also, you're a nancy-boy. )

[pi2infinity]

Dr. Jeff Masters hosts a tropical weather blog (which he calls his WunderBlog) at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ . It's an excellent blog regarding meteorology and associated mathematics (though you may not be as interested if you don't live in a hurricane-prone area).

This comic was referenced on this widely-viewed blog here:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200807
(It's the blog on 29 July-- that is, the second one from the top)

[El Cool]

very nice. i laughed at all of them.

How long did you stare at the Florida peninsula to come up with the Freud hurricane?

Loved those Tron hurricanes. They kinda stick to reality: lately a lot of hurricanes have come close, but not to, Puerto Rico. They just throw water at us, and not come close enough to get a day off.

[layzee]

ouch, come back in a few days to see i get bashed by an aussie.
and one that proceeds to go into the most convoluted explanation of why i am incorrect...
you could have just pointed out i forgot to type in x.
-sin(36x)+7
cheers.

Well, using significant guesstimation the 90W longitude the wave crosses at about -1, making it a -sin(x) where using further guesstimation the frequency of the wave is ~36. Using an earlier estimation for above equator shift of +7 this would make it Hurricane (-sin(36) +7).

You fail at trigonometry. Note that the graph of y = -\sin(36) +7 looks like this (axes not shown):
__________________________________

By frequency, do you mean period (in degrees)? If so then you want y = k\sin (\pi x / 18 + a) + 7 where k is half the difference in degrees between the y-coordinate of the peaks and troughs, and a can be determined after this by substituting y=-1, x=90 as per your suggestion. (Note: I am assuming y and x are in degrees, but sin takes its argument in radians. If you want sin to take its argument in degrees, then use y = k\sin (10x + a) + 7, where k is the same as before but a will be different. Also, you're a nancy-boy. )

[d3c31t]

such a simple mistake such a beautifully written and fairly lengthy bashing... i love the xkcd forums for this reason...

[scarletmanuka]

I suppose I should have signed it "Summer Glau" in the interests of xckd meme propagation...

[jHo]

Has anyone else noticed that Hurricane Fay is a lot like Hurricane Screw-It-Let's-Just-Trash-Florida-Again?

[Wiglaf]

Yep, I've had exactly the same thought. Three, maybe four landfalls on Florida, managing to hit the keys, come up the peninsula and THEN turn and hit the panhandle? What the hell? Good thing its not that strong.

[Thalagyrt]

Has anyone else noticed that Hurricane Fay is a lot like Hurricane Screw-It-Let's-Just-Trash-Florida-Again?

Yup, that was my first thought when I saw that it was going across Florida eastbound followed by crossing again westbound.

[Panama1984]

Not only does fay look a lot like screw-it-let's-just-trash-Florida-again, but Bertha looks a lot like where-the-hell-is-Bermuda

also, I live in Orlando, and there's a foot and a half deep pool in my apartment's parking lot

[aerojad]

I hear some people are closing in on three feet of rain. That has to be ...different.

[scarletmanuka]

Not only does fay look a lot like screw-it-let's-just-trash-Florida-again, but Bertha looks a lot like where-the-hell-is-Bermuda

He did tell you these were upcoming hurricanes; what more do you want?

[Wiglaf]

Apparently even nature imitates XKCD.

[Panama1984]

I hear some people are closing in on three feet of rain. That has to be ...different.

go to orlandosentinel.com

it seriously looks like Katrina in some places

[TheHand]

Indeed, nature does intimidate.

She is a harsh mistress.

[jacjac10]

Is it sad that xkcd's hurricane projection was more accurate for this year than most, if not all, of the meterologists' looking at Florida in recent months?

[Splooge169]

Tropical Storm Fay has now made four landfalls in Florida. The comic clearly shows four landfalls for Hurricane Screw-it-Let's-Just-Trash-Florida-Again. Coincidence?

[ACU-LP]

"Screw it lets just trash florida again"
Bam.

Yay for living in Sydney, where we dont get hurricanes, tornados, typhoons or whatever you want to call them wherever you are.
We did get snow on the north shore though....?!

[Kain]

I hear some people are closing in on three feet of rain. That has to be ...different.

go to orlandosentinel.com

it seriously looks like Katrina in some places

Actually, Orlando didn't get three feet of rain. That would have been Melbourne Fl, where, as luck would have it, I attend the only educational institution in the county that decided, "hey, this is a three block college campus, our students dont actually have to drive in this weather, so lets keep the school open until three hours before the eye reaches us." The campus ended up looking like a river...

Anyways, on the topic of the Upcoming Huricanes comic, I have this feeling that Gustav is going to do a 'Hurricane Freud' impression... don't ask me why...

[fishamaphone]

This may be the only post I ever make on this forum, but I'm a big fan of the comic, and a Floridian. Yes, Fay made me think of "screw-it-let's-just-trash-Florida-again," but there's another subtle hint that the real world seems to be paying attention to XKCD.

It isn't official yet, but check out the projections for TS Hanna.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Notice how it's predicted to jog the slightest bit north at the tail end of the five-day chart just when it hits the latitude where it formed?

I haven't done any heavy math since high school, but that looks like it's gotta be some form of a cosine function... I know I'll be watching to see how closely it matches that track.

[GCM]

Well, if something does hit Florida, we know there's possibly going to be a few lawsuits involving "Your comic depicted it, so it became true! Where's my 3.9 mil?"

In other news, Gustav looks to be calming down. Hope it keeps that way.

[Armadillo Al]

While we're discussing actual hurricanes, Illinois just got 'hit' by what was once Gustav today.

I think we got two inches of rain, a very gloomy day, and zero actual damage.

Yeah, we do have it too easy.

[william]

This is one of the funniest ones in a while.

As a resident of Florida, I found the Florida one (and by extension, the Illinois one) hilarious.

You know your Florida license plates? Those oranges already look like balls.

[GloriousPeanut]

"Hurricane Illinois-Has-It-Too-Easy."

I HOPE YOU ARE HAPPY.

[Kain]

"Hurricane Illinois-Has-It-Too-Easy."

I HOPE YOU ARE HAPPY.

Bah, a tropical depression? I've gone camping in worse.

[kriel]

"Hurricane Illinois-Has-It-Too-Easy."I HOPE YOU ARE HAPPY.

Bah, a tropical depression? I've gone camping in worse.

Yes, but it's only friday, and It's already hit my internet for most of today.

<irony>
My friend said "So smile. The sun'll come out tomorrow " today in a text message. I should go slap him.
</irony>

[TexasBelle210]

lol i just want it noted, that some of us got mandatorily evacuated from the texas coast for hurricane ike.... and are now stuck in dallas for god knows how long until we are allowed back...

*realizes that she sounds bitter and goes back to watching animal planet at her aunt's house in dallas*

i think that we should all hope for a strong category 4 hurricane (that goes through some other state than texas or louisiana, we've had enough this year)! that way, when it gets to illinois, it would still be a hurricane!

[eigensheep]

It looks like Randall is going to get his wish in the alt text thanks to Hurricane Irene. CNN was showing simulations of Manhattan being flooded today.

[TheRedSeven]

"Hurricane Illinois-Has-It-Too-Easy."I HOPE YOU ARE HAPPY.

Bah, a tropical depression? I've gone camping in worse.

Yes, but it's only friday, and It's already hit my internet for most of today.

<irony>
My friend said "So smile. The sun'll come out tomorrow " today in a text message. I should go slap him.
</irony>

I actually *was* camping during the remnants of this. A group of friends always visited the Michigan (Warren) Dunes each fall as kind of a end-of-summer getaway. The forecast was 20% for light rain/drizzle, which was pretty typical of our experience. Normally it would rain, but then dry out and we'd have a great weekend. So we didn't think anything of the forecast having a possibility of rain.

It ended up raining over 6 inches over the first night. Dried up enough for us to swim in Lake Michigan for a couple hours, cook out, and climb the dunes. Then it proceeded to rain another 3 inches over the second night. Oh, and we do the "rustic" camp there--no running water/electricity, etc. Worst camping experience of my life.


(Also, re: the post above mine--Randall is obviously prescient. Amazing that they still don't have emergency scenarios for that, though they did a decent job evacuating for Irene.)

[Splarka]

It looks like Randall is going to get his wish in the alt text thanks to Hurricane Irene. CNN was showing simulations of Manhattan being flooded today.

Looks like he really got his wish with Sandy.