F11 mafia game 2 - Mafia win

[Tanya]

Sorry I was gone. I had a piano exam and when I got back it was night in the game.

[MartinW]

7 players. 4 votes to lynch.

[crucialityfactor]

What we know from yesterday:

Roles: Still nothing.

I agree that if the cop found a mafia member last night an outright role claim against them would be a probably a good move. At 5:2 we're not quite secure in being wrong a 2nd time but it's not quite lynch or lose. If we're wrong we'll be at best 4:2 tomorrow (more likely 3:2) if the doctor can protect successfully. Also, if the cop found a pro town role last night don't let us lynch them! I'm not saying that you should role claim to save them (that'd be most likely just killing yourself if there's no doc to protect you) but protect them as best you can nonetheless.

Voting:
Rysto (moody)
there-is-no-spoon (moody)
Silknor (moody)
crucialityfactor (moody)
Jayhsu (moody)

No Votes:
Tanya
Tigion

I would have to say that all of us who voted would probably agree that moody was quite suspect in his initial vote and as well in the posts following that. The two people who didn't vote were also not involved in the conversation at all. So I'm thinking that a good starting point for today would be for Tanya and Tigionto do some talking about what they've seen so far and their impressions on people. I can understand that Tigion had basically just joined the game a posted only 2-3 times before the voting even happened, but Tanya has been here since the beginning and I'm interested to hear her thoughts more in depth.

Suspicions:

The only thing that sticks out to me right now is Silknor's continued suspicion of Rysto. Perhaps he was quick to vote initially, but I don't think there's too much flaw in his reasoning. I don't think his vote was as out of the blue at moody's was initially...but it's something that we can explore more in depth for the time being.

[Tanya]

I didn't vote for moody, because as I said at the top of the page I was away when he was lynched. As for my suspicions I am slightly suspicous of Rysto and Crucialityfactor. OverBoard sugessted on page 3 that we should look for partnerships and I find it interesting that moody votes for Crucialityfactor and then Rysto starts the lynching on him. Today Silknor acuses Rysto then Crucialityfactor acuses Silknor. This is possibly coincidense so I'm not suggesting we lynch them without more evidense.

[crucialityfactor]

Wait...I'm not suspicious of Silknor. What I meant is that the only voiced suspicion we had at that point was Silknor's suspicion of Rysto.

[Silknor]

Suspicions:

The only thing that sticks out to me right now is Silknor's continued suspicion of Rysto. Perhaps he was quick to vote initially, but I don't think there's too much flaw in his reasoning. I don't think his vote was as out of the blue at moody's was initially...but it's something that we can explore more in depth for the time being.

Wait...I'm not suspicious of Silknor. What I meant is that the only voiced suspicion we had at that point was Silknor's suspicion of Rysto.

Woah there. Does anyone else see a contradiction here?

"Suspicions:" and "sticks out to me right now" definitely do not sound like how you'd start a list of all the outstanding suspicions that other players have of other. It sounds like how you'd say that you suspect someone (me!).

This interpretation makes more sense in the sentences that follow than the alternative which is that he didn't mean to say he suspected me. He defends Rysto and Rysto's vote. I made an attack on Rysto because it seemed like he wanted moody lynched and jumped on that post (something I brought up yesterday). By saying that Rysto's reasoning is sound, he implicitly attacks the person attacking Rysto, because if Rysto's reasoning and timing was non-suspicious, then whoever attacked Rysto for them may well be Mafia.

His first post certainly is saying he now suspects me for an attack on Rysto. His second post completely denies that. What was in the middle? Tanya saying that it seemed like Rysto and Cruciality were working together. Cruciality's response makes alot of sense for an inexperienced and called-out mafia, he backs off the accusation to distance himself from Rysto. If Tanya did manage to hit the nail on the head and Rysto and Cruciality are both Mafia, then I believe backing off is exactly what Cruciality would do. It seems the most obvious thing for a mobster to do in that situation, and he probably didn't see how it could make him more suspicious.

I'm bringing out the big guns now and unbending my finger, thus revealing the full wrath of my fingernail. FNoS: crucialityfactor

[crucialityfactor]

If I suspected you I would stand by that until you proved to me that I was mistaken. You initially suspected Rysto somewhat because he was quick to vote for Moody. You re-voiced that suspicion after it turned out that Moody was in fact Pro-town. I don't see anything suspicious about those things.

I stand by this: what I meant in that earlier post was that the only actual suspicion that anyone had voiced was Silknor's Suspicion of Rysto. Which is a legit suspicion. I was merely trying to start a dialogue on that where we could discuss the two sides to it. On the one hand, yes it was a quick vote in a situation that he wasn't a part of. But on the other side of it he claimed former suspicion of Moody and on top of Moody's weak claim against me saw enough reason to vote.

Perhaps he was quick to vote initially, but I don't think there's too much flaw in his reasoning. I don't think his vote was as out of the blue at moody's was initially...but it's something that we can explore more in depth for the time being

This is a complete sentence I touch on both sides, I don't think I'm trying to refute either argument as I suggested that we can look into both sides more.

If you still think I'm backpeddling well then I don't really know what else I can say to change your mind. And if you thing that we're somehow working together then so be it.

I'm telling you that you're wrong about both.

I honestly don't know what else I could say to convince you otherwise.

[There-is-no-spoon]

Fair enough. My frayed nerves would have appreciated a quicker response, but thanks.

Unvote

Vote:Rysto

I'm sure you'll say this is vote jumping and include it in your dossier against me, but I'm almost beyond caring about that.

Instead of waiting for cruciality's defense and for me to be satisfied by it, you jumped right on me with both feet. That was much too fast.

Moody did vote for Rysto but I thought that was a OMGUS vote. I wish he elaborated more than just "that was much too fast". Now, any knowledge he might have had is lost.

[Tigerlion]

What we know from yesterday:

Roles: Still nothing.

I agree that if the cop found a mafia member last night an outright role claim against them would be a probably a good move. At 5:2 we're not quite secure in being wrong a 2nd time but it's not quite lynch or lose. If we're wrong we'll be at best 4:2 tomorrow (more likely 3:2) if the doctor can protect successfully. Also, if the cop found a pro town role last night don't let us lynch them! I'm not saying that you should role claim to save them (that'd be most likely just killing yourself if there's no doc to protect you) but protect them as best you can nonetheless.

Voting:
Rysto (moody)
there-is-no-spoon (moody)
Silknor (moody)
crucialityfactor (moody)
Jayhsu (moody)

No Votes:
Tanya
Tigion

I would have to say that all of us who voted would probably agree that moody was quite suspect in his initial vote and as well in the posts following that. The two people who didn't vote were also not involved in the conversation at all. So I'm thinking that a good starting point for today would be for Tanya and Tigionto do some talking about what they've seen so far and their impressions on people. I can understand that Tigion had basically just joined the game a posted only 2-3 times before the voting even happened, but Tanya has been here since the beginning and I'm interested to hear her thoughts more in depth.

Suspicions:

The only thing that sticks out to me right now is Silknor's continued suspicion of Rysto. Perhaps he was quick to vote initially, but I don't think there's too much flaw in his reasoning. I don't think his vote was as out of the blue at moody's was initially...but it's something that we can explore more in depth for the time being.

Argh, I've been swamped latley. I'm trying to get back up to speed on my games.

Right now my only impression is that I think Silknor is innocent. Just from what the overall game has been.

[jayhsu]

I'm inclined to agree, about Silknor's innocence. I think Rysto is innocent too - the lynching of Moody was an honest accident.

But I'm not entirely convinced Cruciality is scum either.

[There-is-no-spoon]

I have gone through all of the four pages, which took us 6 days to fill, again. Basically most of the discussions (as I'm sure you also know) are about strategy regarding the cop.

Silknor's called for the cop to come forward if he/she has a mafia response from the investigation (I agree with that logic) and all the players have posted excluding Rysto. I think if we had a cop and a mafia member was caught, then we would have seen a post in that regard by now. So at best a cop, if we have one, can direct us away from lynching a Townie.

I am not really suspicious of Rysto about the Moody lynching but I do not understand his absence "today".

What we need now is a plan of action but I am stumped. Any ideas anyone?

[Rysto]

I am not really suspicious of Rysto about the Moody lynching but I do not understand his absence "today".

Sorry, I've been watching but nothing said toDay has stuck out at me as deserving comment, and I haven't had the time to go over the thread as a whole yet.

[MartinW]

This game seems to be going to slowly. I'm setting a time limit of 48 hours from this post. After that the player with the most votes will be lynched. If it is a draw I will randomly choose one. The amount of votes it takes to lynch is also lowered to 3.

[Silknor]

There really hasn't been much discussion recently here. I'm still pretty suspicious of cruciality and his last post did nothing to change that. For all the reasons I gave earlier:

Vote: Crucialityfactor

[Tanya]

I think it is best to lynch someone suspicious than the mod randomly choosing someone. As I stated before Crucialityfactor appears to be in a partnership. He also tried to back out of accusing Silknor when I said I thought it was suspicious. So untill something else comes up:

Vote: Crucialityfactor

[crucialityfactor]

Sigh...I never was accusing Silknor to begin with. You just interpreted what I said completely wrong, I find it suspicious that after I ask you to post more you immediately started going after me. Also, when I asked you to comment on what's been going on in the game you only replied with that you were out and you started accusing me.

Vote: Tanya

[MartinW]

Vote Count:

CrucialityFactor: (2) Tanya
Jayhsu: (0)
Rysto: (0)
Silknor: (1) CrucialityFactor
Tanya: (1) CrucialityFactor
There-is-no-spoon: (0)
Tigion: (0)

3 to lynch.

[Tanya]

Crucialityfactor: You accuse Silknor then say you didn't. You said:

What I meant is that the only voiced suspicion we had at that point was Silknor's suspicion of Rysto.

But moody7277 accused you so Silknor isn't the only voiced suspicion. As for my reply to your post I accused you after that post because that is the one you defended Rysto in.

[jayhsu]

Vote: Cruciality Factor

I'm in agreement with the arguments made before me. I don't think your story adds up. Hammertime.

[Rysto]

I'm not particularly suspicious of cruciality, because I know damn well he's not in a partnership with me. Listing Silkion under "Suspicions" and then saying that he wasn't voicing suspicion of anyone is weird -- but from my perspective, I can't see any scum motivation for doing that. The partnership explanation does make sense, but as I know it's false I can't see any reasons for a scummy cruciality to act as he has.

I'm going to vote Silknor. I find this post in particular to be quite disingenuous:

I can understand why you suspect Rysto. And certainly I think if you do turn out innocent, the town will take a closer look at Rysto, primarily because he jumped on you so fast.

Here's what makes me suspicious more than you changing your vote, which again, if I was a townie in your place, I'd probably do too. It's that your attack on cruiciality went from an apparently serious attempt to lynch him and start people voting for him, to in your last post, just a way to pressure him so you could be satisfied by his defense. This seems like a suspicious strategy, it's trying to place suspicion on someone while avoiding any suspicion if you turn out wrong or get called on him. It certainly seems like something a mobster would do.

I think your original arguments vs cruciality were weak, but your behavior since then seals it for me.

Vote: moody7277

Silknor's talking out of both sides of his mouth here. He votes for moody and says that he's certain that moody is scum, but also says that if moody comes up innocent Town will look at me next. This reeks of what's called Perfect Information Syndrome. The thing is, the only players who can be 100% right about the alignments of all players are the Mafia. Townies will get things wrong; Mafia have to pretend to be wrong and if they slip in doing this, you can catch them. This vote post reads to me to be a post from somebody who knows that moody is going to come up Town and so is trying to give himself an out he can point to the next Day and say, "See guys, I warned you that this was suspicious." And sure enough:

I made an attack on Rysto because it seemed like he wanted moody lynched and jumped on that post (something I brought up yesterday).

Silknor is trying to have his cake and eat it too. If he found the my case scummy yesterDay, why did he vote with me?

[MartinW]

The town had trouble deciding who to lynch but they finally decided to lynch CrucialityFactor. What they hadn't decided on was how to lynch him. "Let's do something different." said Tigion "It's been a while since we've used an old fashioned noose and I've got one on-board the yacht.". With that issue quickly decided the town hauled CrucialityFactor towards Tigion's yacht (which had been brought on-board and was tied to the deck). Suddenly CrucialityFactor slipped out of his captors grasp and ran towards the life boats (which were next to the yacht). But his escape was rudely interrupted when one of the townies loosened the rope holding the yacht upright. The yacht toppled and fell right onto CrucialityFactor.

CrucialityFactor was lynched and it is now night 2.

[Silknor]

Day's over, so I won't get to respond to Rysto till tomorrow.

[Tigerlion]

Not the Red October!

[crucialityfactor]

D: What a way to go.

[MartinW]

The killer stalked trough the night. He had decided to be highly unusual and was carefully climbing through the entrance of Tigions yacht. Once inside he found and booted up Tigions laptop and connected to the ships satellite internet connection. After switching on a torrent program and downloading pirate software he carefully replaced everything the way it was and went back to his cabin.

As the town gathered round next morning they noticed Tigion was gone. They went to his cabin to investigate and found him dead with a throwing knife in his chest. On the hilt was a single symbol, "©". "Seems there are others ways than sauces of getting someone killed someone." remarked one townie. They then investigated his corpse and found a police badge.

Disheartened by the loss of their cop the town then went to investigate the corpse of CrucialityFactor. After returning the yach to its place they were overjoyed to find bits of a gun. They serial number may have been filed out but it was difficult to tell with the gun in so many pieces.


CrucialityFactor was a mafia goon.
Tigion was framed for software piracy by the mafia and executed. He was the cop.
It is now day 3.

Player list:
Jayhsu
Rysto
Silknor
Tanya
There-is-no-spoon

[Tigerlion]

Aw, shucks.

[Rysto]

Gee, I'm doing well in this game, aren't I?

Right now my only impression is that I think Silknor is innocent. Just from what the overall game has been.

I'm going out on a limb here and saying that Tigion investigated Silknor Night One. Between this and the fact that cruciality turned up Scum, I consider Silknor to be Town.

I also find it very unlikely that Tanya is scum. I wouldn't expect scum to sell out her partner at that point of the game, and because her case basically came down to "it looks as though cruciality and Rysto are working together". As I'm Town, I would expect a scummy Tanya to come after me first, not her partner(I do realize that this reasoning is useless to the rest of you, as you can hardly be assured of my Towniness).

So I'm left to find the final Mafioso between Jayhsu and spoon. I'll look at them and report on my findings.

[Rysto]

I forgot to say, by no means do I consider Jayhsu cleared for hammering cruciality. At that point it was basically a given that cruciality would get lynched so Jayhsu could have been trying for townie cred by hammering a Mafioso.

[Rysto]

Man, the game thread is short. Here's what I've turned up. Here's what jayhsu said about cruciality before MartinW imposed the deadline:

But I'm not entirely convinced Cruciality is scum either.

But he changed his story once cruciality was a vote away from being hammered:

Vote: Cruciality Factor

I'm in agreement with the arguments made before me. I don't think your story adds up. Hammertime.

So basically we've got a me-too vote contradicting his own stated opinions. A vote that only came after the ship had sailed on cruciality and he was pretty well certain to be lynched. Very scummy.

And if he was so convinced by the case against cruciality, then he must have thought that I was scum, too, right? A partnership between me and cruciality was the biggest part of the case against him, right?

I'm inclined to agree, about Silknor's innocence. I think Rysto is innocent too - the lynching of Moody was an honest accident.

(bolding mine)

So if he didn't believe the partnership case, why exactly was he voting for cruciality? I think that jayhsu sold out a fellow mafioso once he realized that cruciality was a dead man, because he hoped to get townie cred for hammering a mafioso.

In the hopes that the third time's a charm, instead of bad cases coming in threes:

Vote jayhsu

[jayhsu]

Crucialityfactor: You accuse Silknor then say you didn't. You said:

What I meant is that the only voiced suspicion we had at that point was Silknor's suspicion of Rysto.

But moody7277 accused you so Silknor isn't the only voiced suspicion. As for my reply to your post I accused you after that post because that is the one you defended Rysto in.

Was the post that made me change my mind. I hadn't realized Cruciality's slip-up til then.

I think that jayhsu sold out a fellow mafioso once he realized that cruciality was a dead man, because he hoped to get townie cred for hammering a mafioso.

Distancing doesn't seem a great tactic when there are this few people in a game, and only one mafia left. It's risky at best, and look where it's "gotten me."

Regardless, if you insist on lynching me, I will say first that I am a mere townie.

Next I would say Silknor is innocent. This seems to be what Tigion was trying to say:

Right now my only impression is that I think Silknor is innocent. Just from what the overall game has been.

I also think Rysto is innocent (but this is less certain - I think he's trying).

I believe this leaves Tanya and There-is-no-spoon. I'm not sure what to think here. Tanya did vote for Cruciality, so it's a possible distancing tactic. Cruciality also voted for Tanya, perhaps to allay suspicion from her. But his accusations seem more desperate than tactical.

Sigh...I never was accusing Silknor to begin with. You just interpreted what I said completely wrong, I find it suspicious that after I ask you to post more you immediately started going after me. Also, when I asked you to comment on what's been going on in the game you only replied with that you were out and you started accusing me.

Thus, I think There-is-no-spoon is the other mafia. By not participating in the lynching of Cruciality, and Cruciality not drawing suspicion to him, There-is-no-spoon is in a pretty good position.

So, for what it's worth:

Vote: There-is-no-spoon

[jayhsu]

I'm going out on a limb here and saying that Tigion investigated Silknor Night One. Between this and the fact that cruciality turned up Scum, I consider Silknor to be Town.

Oops, didn't see that post.

Well, I wouldn't be surprised if Silknor is taken out tonight, now that he is a known townie (pretty much known - I will hate Tigion if he investigated someone else and just threw Silknor's name out there).

Having a premonition for my own demise, I believe tomorrow's game will consist of:

There-is-no-spoon
Tanya
Rysto

Which would be a lynch-or-lose situation. Good luck there, Rysto. No pressure.

Unless you're the mafia, in which case, brilliant.

[There-is-no-spoon]

Right now my only impression is that I think Silknor is innocent. Just from what the overall game has been.

Yes I agree, this is where Tigion gives himself away as the cop and also that he investigated Silkor.

So by deduction Silknor has to be a Townie which leaves Rysto, Tanya and Jayhsu a possible mafiaso's

Cruiciality asked for Tanya's opinion and she responded with a pretty damning response. Therefore I do not believe Tanya was Cruiciality's partner, there is just no "working together" there for me.

I do not believe Rysto is scum either for the simple fact that he is working too hard find scum. He is involved in the game and although he has not been right, he is contributing in looking for scum. To me that is a sign of a player that wants the the Town to win.

I am not scum and let us be fair, yes I did not vote for Cruiciality but the whole thing was over in about 1 and a half hours.

Rysto pointed out right in the beginning of the game that information is the most important asset the Town has. I find it odd that Jayshu so quickly closed the day and therefore hampering any further discussion.

Jayhsu really never contributed so he did not give the Town any extra information. Up to yesterday the only contributions Jayhsu made was niggling Overbored (see I get it right now), agreeing in the voting, one post on the cop and he defended Cruiciality on two occations:

I'm inclined to agree, about Silknor's innocence. I think Rysto is innocent too - the lynching of Moody was an honest accident.

But I'm not entirely convinced Cruciality is scum either.

Brought over from page 2 for you jayhsu.

Ok cool, what I was getting at there is that the Mafia could have feigned a Doctor to lure the Cop out into the open.

Sussing out your Mafia strategy perhaps?

I'm not entirely sure how this incriminates Cruciality, Moody. Could you elaborate?

But look how careful he supports Cruiciality, nor too forceful but definitely trying to divert the suspicion away.

So basically his whole game looks scummy to me. Vote Jayhsu

[Silknor]

Tired and going to bed. Please don't hammer Jayhsu yet (I haven't read the posts so I'm not sure if I'd vote for him, but I"m probably dead tonight so I want to get in some last thoughts).

[MartinW]

Vote Count:

Jayhsu: (2) There-is-no-spoon
Rysto: (0) Jayhsu
Silknor: (0)
Tanya: (0)
There-is-no-spoon: (1) Jayhsu

5 players. 3 to lynch.

[Rysto]

Unvote until Silknor checks back in, to prevent an accidental hammer.

[Silknor]

Ok post coming now. Hint: It's not a hammer on Jayhsu.

[Silknor]

I'm going to start with Jayhsu:

Spoiler:

The argument starts off with this:

Man, the game thread is short. Here's what I've turned up. Here's what jayhsu said about cruciality before MartinW imposed the deadline:

But I'm not entirely convinced Cruciality is scum either.

But he changed his story once cruciality was a vote away from being hammered:

Vote: Cruciality Factor

I'm in agreement with the arguments made before me. I don't think your story adds up. Hammertime.

So basically we've got a me-too vote contradicting his own stated opinions. A vote that only came after the ship had sailed on cruciality and he was pretty well certain to be lynched. Very scummy.

This argument is heavily flawed. It relies in part on an assumption that the argument against cruciality was bulletproof and a townie would have been convinced by it. Let's be clear here. If I was convinced by my own argument against cruciality, I would not have started off with not even a Finger of Suspicion. There were plenty of reasons to think that even given what I had said there, cruciality could be innocent.

What happened between Jayhsu's posts that could cause him to change him mind? A lot. And Rysto's argument is misleading at best and intentionally manipulative at worst for ignoring that (but I'll get back to that). First we have the mod intervention, which cuts down the time we have for discussion (and things had been going quite slowly). Next, I go from a FNoS to an actual vote. Can you blame Jayhsu for not wanting to hop with an argument that I myself had not been convinced of enough yet to vote for? Then Tanya brings up her argument again and rehashes another reason to be suspicious, that cruciality backed off of me when it was pointed out his argument was suspicious. Cruciality then continues to lie in his next post, and makes an incredibly poor argument against Tanya. That last part is a huge reason to vote for cruciality. Instead of giving a legitimate argument against anyone, he responds with a lie and some statements that don't at all implicate Tanya. Tanya then brings up a contradiction in cruciality's argument again. Finally after all of this Jayhsu votes for cruciality.

Could Jayhsu have been trying to distance himself? Sure, of course the possibility is there. But it seems much more likely that the combination of all the above factors which Rysto so ignores in his argument caused him to change his mind.

Lets go to the next part of Rysto's argument against Jayhsu.

And if he was so convinced by the case against cruciality, then he must have thought that I was scum, too, right? A partnership between me and cruciality was the biggest part of the case against him, right?

I'm inclined to agree, about Silknor's innocence. I think Rysto is innocent too - the lynching of Moody was an honest accident.

(bolding mine)

So if he didn't believe the partnership case, why exactly was he voting for cruciality? I think that jayhsu sold out a fellow mafioso once he realized that cruciality was a dead man, because he hoped to get townie cred for hammering a mafioso.

Again, this at best misunderstands my argument against Jayhsu or gives credence to that half of Tanya's argument over the other half plus my argument. At worst its an intentional lie to frame Jayhsu. My argument is entirely about the contradiction in cruciality's post. It is not about a connection between cruciality and Rysto. I myself wasn't putting much credence on the link Tanya argues exists between cruciality and Rysto, sure, it does make me slightly suspicious, but my argument functions entirely without it, and in the end my argument and cruciality's later answers and contradictions are what convinced me to vote for him, not this connection argument.

Also, lets look at this from a more basic level. Assume Jayhsu and Cruciality are Mafia. Then Jayhsu can accept or at least not dispute Tanya's argument at zero or possibly negative cost to himself. This helps frame Rysto for tomorrow, thus sacrificing Cruciality (if needed) to frame Rysto and help clear Jayhsu. Thus had Jayhsu been Mafia it's much more likely he would at least not dispute, and possibly accept, Tanya's connection argument so as to misdirect the lynch today.

There-is-no-spoon's arguments may have some merit, but there's not much I can say about them. Is there still some reason that we may suspect Jayhsu? Sure. But I believe I can present a much more compelling case against Rysto. Jayhsu is still my 2nd suspect, behind only Rysto, and certainly if we lynch Rysto and I'm alive tomorrow I'd consider going after Jayhsu, but I'd look more at the others too, not just him.

There-is-no-spoon: I see no reason I need to defend him. The only reason Jayhsu gives is that he didn't help lynch cruciality, and he doesn't give any other reasons. As this and much more applies to Rysto, I can see why you might suspect him for that, but I don't feel it's a very strong argument at this point.

And for Rysto:

Spoiler:

So to start out, I have been suspicious of Rysto from day 1. It wasn't much then but it's grew a lot on days 2 and 3.

To start with Day 1: Rysto leads the vote on Moody, he is again very sure of his argumentation and quick to hammer, but this is minor compared to the rest. I voice some suspicions of him.

Day 2: Rysto doesn't vote for cruciality. He doesn't outright defend cruciality, he justs says after Tanya and I attack cruciality that he has nothing to say. Remember that later he argues the attack on cruciality was really just an argument that said Rysto and cruciality were linked (see above). So if he honestly sees the argument as an attack on him too, then it's very strange he doesn't try to defend himself here (the more likely case is that the argument about it being solely an attack by linking arose later as a convenient fiction with which to attack Jayhsu). I see this as trying not to be associated with defending cruciality while not being willing to give any momentum to the movement to lynch cruciality. In light of the first part of my Day 3 argument below this is even more implicating.

The other thing he did Day 2 was vote for me. This is after cruciality votes for Tanya, which we can see as another distancing tactic. Rysto later argues Tanya is innocent, which makes perfect sense if he wants to appear separate from cruciality (though he does defend cruciality a bit, first by misrepresenting the argument as a link only, which is weaker I believe than my argument against cruciality, and second by saying he doesn't see why cruciality would've made this contradiction if he was scum, the answer to that is clear, he was caught and tried to lie his way out). But lets look at his argument against me (I realize people probably trust I'm innocent at this point and so I don't need to really defend myself, but I'm more interested in using his argument as a reason to vote for him). (http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=26430&p=836581#p835450).

He says that I'm disingenuous because while I vote for Moody, I say that if Moody turns out innocent then the suspicion will turn to Rysto. He accuses me of "Perfect Information Syndrome", saying that I know Moody is innocent and thus am trying to avoid suspicion while throwing it on Rysto tomorrow (or having my cake and eating it too).This argument is flawed. First Rysto assumes I'm voting for Moody because of Rysto's arguments. Rather it is Moody's responses, something I make perfectly clear, that made me suspicious of Moody enough to vote. Even without the belief that I'm innocent because of what Tigion said, this seems to be quite a weak argument by Rysto. Second, he assumes that since I'm voting for moody, as is he, I can't find the person attacking moody suspicious. But I gave reasons then (weak, fast, overly confident argument) why I found Rysto's argument suspicious, it was only Moody's suspicious responses that made me vote for him. The reasons that Rysto gives are very poor for his vote. Throw in that it seems he doesn't want cruciality lynched (he defends cruciality, doesn't vote for him, and tries to throw suspicion on one of the voters and attackers) and this whole argument seems scummy.

Day 3: Well first we can see Rysto never votes for cruciality. Now, who this game has been the main (maybe only) one talking about Scum hammering their partner to gain credibility? Rysto. Rysto brings it up to use against Jayhsu.

I forgot to say, by no means do I consider Jayhsu cleared for hammering cruciality. At that point it was basically a given that cruciality would get lynched so Jayhsu could have been trying for townie cred by hammering a Mafioso.

That's one example, the other's not overly relevant. The implication of this is clear, Rysto is saying that a Scum would have voted for cruciality. Because he did not vote for cruciality, the implication is clear, he's trying to manipulate people into believe only those who voted for cruciality can be scum (thus he can't), and his two targets both voted for cruciality (Me, Jayhsu). Note also the Perfect Information argument Rysto made above. There's clear similarity in both these cases. Rysto makes an argument about how scum should act, and then deliberately acts the other way so as to throw suspicion off him.

Now also remember the two ways in which Rysto misrepresents facts or lies during his attack on Jayhsu (these are both above, the first was he makes it look like Jayhsu changed his mind about cruciality in a suspicious way by completely ignoring all the substantive reasons to vote for cruciality presented between Jayhsu's posts, and the second was he claims the case against cruciality was solely based on a link between Rysto and Cruciality, and thus Jayhus is suspicious for defending Rysto, this completely ignores at least half of the arguments made against cruciality). Both of these are either major reasoning errors or more likely intentional lies to make Jayhsu look guilty.

One last minor thing. Rysto unvotes Jayhsu after I say please don't hammer him in order to prevent a speed lynch. Yet again, the implication is that a Mafia in that position would speed lynch Jayhsu and because he's preventing that, he can't be Mafia. This is the same form of argument as the cases I mentioned two paragraphs ago, Rysto says how Scum would act and then acts the exact opposite way to avoid suspicion.

Conclusion: I believe the attacks presented against Jayhsu to be fairly weak, and I have demonstrated why I think this. This does not mean Jayhsu must be innocent, I'd currently rank him the second most suspicious, but I really don't see him as more suspicious at this point that either Tanya or There-is-no-spoon. He'd be my first lead for tomorrow if Rysto turned out innocent, but I'd have to look at everyone again in that case.

Rysto on the other hand I find incredibly suspicious. Some would clear him because he has been active in leading the town. I do not see this to be the case at all. It's the perfect position for a mobster, to be able to control the lynch vote. It's not something that's easy to achieve, and so many mobsters don't try, but plenty do, and some succeed. Even without the fact that he's completely tried to lead us in the wrong direction on days 1, 2, and possibly 3 (attacking Moody, Silknor, somewhat defending cruciality, and now making weak attacks on Jayhsu), he's suspicious for all the other reasons I gave.

Thus, with far more confidence than I had for cruciality and especially moody, I Vote: Rysto.

[There-is-no-spoon]

That is a very strong argument of Silknor. The only reason I trusted Rysto is because he seem to be leading us but as Silknor showed, that could well be in the wrong direction. The only scum that was found was because of Silknor and Tanya's arguments and Rysto did not want to believe it, rather he tries to imply that Silknor is suspicious.

I am going to trust Silknor's judgment on this.

unvote
Vote Rysto

[MartinW]

Vote Count:

Jayhsu: (0) There-is-no-spoon
Rysto: (2)
Silknor: (0) Rysto
Tanya: (0)
There-is-no-spoon: (1) Rysto
Tigion: (0)

5 players. 3 to lynch.

[Rysto]

I suppose I did ignore the contradiction bit, because frankly I think that on its own it was a silly argument. Tanya's case was a far better one because it looked at motivations, which is the most important thing to consider. She asked the question, "Why would a scummy cruciality behave like that?", and gave an explanation. You said, "cruciality put my name under his suspicion list and then claimed that he wasn't suspicious of me and that's weird." Ok, that was weird. But was it scummy? You failed to consider the question of why cruciality would behave that way if he were scum, and frankly without Tanya's theory I don't see how it makes any sense. Of course, it happens that you were right about cruciality being scum, and Tanya was wrong in her partnership theory, but I'm not interested in who was right and who was wrong as much as what arguments were being made and whether they were consistent.

I'll admit to making a mistake in conflating your argument with Tanya's. Just because I don't agree with a piece of reasoning doesn't mean that I should ignore it entirely. And Jayhsu could be telling the truth about his vote, or it could be post-hoc reasoning. Unfortunately, because he didn't provide any reasoning Day 2 we can't tell one way or the other. This is a great reason why it's critical for the Town to make their reasoning explicit: it prevents the scum from being vague and being able to reinterpret their previous actions as they see fit.

With the voting the way it is, I don't see a heck of a lot of choice for me. Vote spoon out of self-defence. I know that I'm Town, and it looks as though a spoon lynch is the only viable alternative right now. Over to you, Tanya.