Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

For your simulated organized crime needs.

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Adam H
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Adam H » Thu May 09, 2013 5:24 pm UTC

thdl wrote:If a towny and an Antitowny are alive at the beginning of the day, is it settled by a random lynch?

Yes.

BigNose wrote:If an Arsonist has previously doused a Vig and in another night, the Vig targets the Arsonist as the Arsonist ignites the fuel, what happens?
No comment, except to repeat from the rules that I'm trying to resolve things as typically as possible.
-Adam

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Thu May 09, 2013 5:32 pm UTC

Even if there is one more scum, arsonist is our main problem. I don't accuse you of being scum because I'm pretty sure you're the arsonist. No other words there.. So we need to lynch you, have Suzaku withhold (to prevent detonation), and see if there's still a kill, if there is we can figure things out then. Regardless of whether there are other scum (I know I previously said there wouldn't be, but in that case I'll still angrily look at Adam), killing the arsonist would be the main priority.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby BigNose » Thu May 09, 2013 7:17 pm UTC

MOD wrote:
BigNose wrote:If an Arsonist has previously doused a Vig and in another night, the Vig targets the Arsonist as the Arsonist ignites the fuel, what happens?
No comment, except to repeat from the rules that I'm trying to resolve things as typically as possible.

I call UNFAIR!!
As a MOD, you must have rules for every scenario.
I am asking for generic game-play ruling for a specific situation.

VOTE: MOD

{holds breath !!!}
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Adam H
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Adam H » Thu May 09, 2013 7:32 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:
MOD wrote:
BigNose wrote:If an Arsonist has previously doused a Vig and in another night, the Vig targets the Arsonist as the Arsonist ignites the fuel, what happens?
No comment, except to repeat from the rules that I'm trying to resolve things as typically as possible.

I call UNFAIR!!
As a MOD, you must have rules for every scenario.
I am asking for generic game-play ruling for a specific situation.

VOTE: MOD

{holds breath !!!}
I made up the order of night actions after I assigned roles. For me to tell you those details could help you narrow down which roles are actually in the game.
The Rules wrote:Order of night actions and other setup information will not be disclosed, except to say that the mods are attempting to make everything as standard as possible.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby thdl » Fri May 10, 2013 12:08 am UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:Even if there is one more scum, arsonist is our main problem. I don't accuse you of being scum because I'm pretty sure you're the arsonist. No other words there.. So we need to lynch you, have Suzaku withhold (to prevent detonation), and see if there's still a kill, if there is we can figure things out then. Regardless of whether there are other scum (I know I previously said there wouldn't be, but in that case I'll still angrily look at Adam), killing the arsonist would be the main priority.


Ok, once more:

If I am the arsonist, then two things are true:
-There is at least 1 more antitown player alive, so if you're so sure I'm an arsonist, start making angry eyes at Adam now.
-I have targeted at most 1 living player.

The arsonist is our main problem iff they have targeted two people. Objectively, the only 2 arsonists that this could likely be true for are BigNose and Xenomortis (Suzaku must control an NK, you are town or mafia based on your conman prediction, and my N1 target is dead). I know that BN has targeted at most 1 player, as he had no target last night, so the only dangerous arsonist is Xeno. And you can know this too, b/c arsonist BN likely means town!thdl (mafia!thdl would not have targeted the NK target, and multiple arsonists is absurd) => arsonist!BN is not a bigger threat than mafia. I am assuming an arsonist with 1 or zero target is less scary than mafia, as they do not have the freedom to select targets based on lynch/vig/prevailing winds of discussion.

From all of this, I think the vig target should be you or Xeno, and I find the probability of you being mafia much higher than the probability of Xeno being scum.

I think you followed the logic of my last post just fine, so the only reason I can see for this response is flailing scum trying to push my lynch/vigging. Also "have suzaku withold and see if there's still a kill" reeks of a mafia setup. If Suzaku claims to withold, there is a massive amount of wine spilled if there is still a kill, which mafia!t1mm, knows there will be.

I personally think it is unlikely that we have 6/1/3, so I think we only have 1 mafia up - (or a scum of any flavor Xeno). Xeno could be a bold arsonist who managed to have two living targets today trying to get us to self destruct (and could be currently saying, and I quote "mwuhahahaha" as we fight), but that was not my read. I think it's much more likely that you are mafia, but failing that, I put it at 2/1 Xeno to BN. At this point my major worry is that I'm reasoning with too much OMGUS, but there isn't enough time to come back unbiased, so I'm sticking with my instincts. I'll obviously reevaluate tomorrow if I make it that long and we haven't won. If there are 2 antitown still alive, then I'm betting our fourth is SK!Suzaku, which, incidentally, is why I would like keep control of the NK rather than lynch and take the chance that SK!suzaku and the mafia put us at a 1v1 situation.

Also, anybody care to jump in with vig votes or real votes? We have ~40hrs to go, and it'd be good if we had a clear majority on whom Suzaku should target so there's no confusion tomorrow in the event of a mislynch or misvig. Failing that, we can't let this go to tied votals, as that gives us strictly fewer pings if we get down to LYLO.

Can we get an exact time for the earliest the day will end?

I know it's subject to mod availability, and I assume its about 1pm UTC on the 11th.

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Adam H
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Adam H » Fri May 10, 2013 1:43 pm UTC

thdl wrote:Can we get an exact time for the earliest the day will end?

The earliest will be 1pm UTC on the 11th.
-Adam

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Fri May 10, 2013 2:35 pm UTC

I don't dig either of those things unless you provide any form of evidence. No one confirms you targeted lynx N1. like I said, you targeted BigNose and Suzaku, and wanted to kill either off Xeno and me to provide you with the win today. There's also no evidence there's someone else than unsubstantiated claims by you.

That's another thing I don't like about you - you claim something is true, I ask why, you refer to answer except for pointing back to your earlier claim. Other people than thdl: check his sources. I have trouble finding any.

I'll ask you again, because you dodged this question the past times I asked: how do you justify claiming you knew who killed lynx if you're a tracker targeting lynx?

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Suzaku » Fri May 10, 2013 2:53 pm UTC

FFS, Tim, he never claimed that.

Vote: Tim

If I needed any confirmation, I think I have it.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Xenomortis » Fri May 10, 2013 3:10 pm UTC

Unvote

I'm less convinced!
What surprised me is that thdl (or BN) never picked up on that (even though I hinted at it earlier).
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D2: Vy x Wobqdamqcbzil

Postby BigNose » Fri May 10, 2013 3:22 pm UTC

thdl wrote:
t1mm01994 wrote:Gosh, if only I didn't know who killed lynx...

Interesting claim. All the moreso because I know that you cannot know that*. Care to share your result?

*to be fair, I am likely the only person in the game with that knowledge.


Based on this, I think I will:

Vote: T1mm
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Xenomortis » Fri May 10, 2013 3:27 pm UTC

Alright...
If t1mm is going to get lynched then I vote thdl for the Vig kill.
To be honest, I don't mind too much which of them is lynched and which is Vig killed, if they both die.

If the game doesn't end after that, then I guess it's a coin flip, with BN looking the most suspect for me at the moment.
If Suzaku is actually a SK, then that's going to really suck...
Although with both having put t1mm at L-1, I don't know what to think anymore.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Suzaku » Fri May 10, 2013 3:49 pm UTC

If Tim is lynched and that doesn't end the game then I will target thdl with the vig kill unless there is strong opposition to me doing so.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D2: Vy x Wobqdamqcbzil

Postby t1mm01994 » Fri May 10, 2013 5:11 pm UTC

thdl wrote:
t1mm01994 wrote:Gosh, if only I didn't know who killed lynx...

Interesting claim. All the moreso because I know that you cannot know that*. Care to share your result?

*to be fair, I am likely the only person in the game with that knowledge.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Xenomortis » Fri May 10, 2013 5:15 pm UTC

I didn't read that as a claim that thdl knew who killed lynx.
I read that as a claim that thdl knew t1mm couldn't know.
But then again, that is incongruous with thdl's later argument.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Fri May 10, 2013 5:16 pm UTC

He could not know I could not know that. Apart from that, I'm pretty sure he claimed "not tracker" at some point, then proceeded to claim tracker. If you target me mainly for inconsistencies, look at the brother thdl too.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Xenomortis » Fri May 10, 2013 5:21 pm UTC

He claimed "Not watcher".
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby thdl » Fri May 10, 2013 7:55 pm UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:That's another thing I don't like about you - you claim something is true, I ask why, you refer to answer except for pointing back to your earlier claim. Other people than thdl: check his sources. I have trouble finding any.

OK, source on the first claim (spoilered the C&P:
Spoiler:
If Xeno's telling the truth, then there are 2 NKs active tonight. Suzaku is one of them, and the mafia is the other. If Xeno is lying, Xeno is scum (and this is not a terribly hard false claim to make). I don't think there would be more than 3 anti-town players in this game for balance reasons, so in both cases Suzaku is town based on balance. If there are 4 anti-town people (presumably 3mafia/1indy), this doesn't work, but I think its a good assumption for today.

Ok, there is one step further. Given that Xeno is scum OR there is a mafia up, we can be certain that if any player who is not Xeno is an arsonist, then there is another scum player alive (Xeno's mafia or Xeno himself). There is a small chance that ConMan emailed back and fourth with 2 writing styles, but that seems... unlikely. What is wrong with this logic?

Second claim:
Spoiler:
You forget, of course, that I targeted lynx N1, a fact which I claimed before it was public knowledge what kind of tracking or watching roles were around, so either Arsonist!thdl is semisuicidal or Arsonist!thdl has only one player primed (doused?) at the moment. Therefore, objectively, the only arsonist possibly worth the risk of lynching and vigging is Xeno (If BN is an arsonist, you can be fairly confident I'm telling the truth => you know that he's not an arsonist worth lynching - max 1 target).

This is weaker, I admit. My reasoning is as follows: getting caught lying by a towny on any day but the last day is an instant loss for a single scum player, so lying about my target would have been an extremely risky play for an unlikely reward, especially b/c if I was false claiming, there are safer false claims. Therefore, even Arsonist!thdl was likely truthful about the target (who is now dead).

I'll ask you again, because you dodged this question the past times I asked: how do you justify claiming you knew who killed lynx if you're a tracker targeting lynx?

Asked and answered:
Spoiler:
That wasn't what I claimed (though, looking back on it, I can see how the pronouns might have been ambiguous - my apologies). My claim specifically was that I was probably the only person in the game who could know that you could not know who killed lynx. I reasoned as follows: only a watcher who saw one visitor could -know- who killed lynx, and I targeted lynx => there must have been at least two targets on lynx (me and the NK) => no one could -know-. The bit about me being the only one was the fact that it rested on my being town (though, I suppose, if I were arsonist or cult, the logic would work too. I can't see mafia PR targeting there own NK target, though).


Xenomortis wrote:What surprised me is that thdl (or BN) never picked up on that (even though I hinted at it earlier).

I'm confused by this, see the above spoiler (I think that's what you are referencing).

Xenomortis wrote:Alright...
If t1mm is going to get lynched then I vote thdl for the Vig kill.
To be honest, I don't mind too much which of them is lynched and which is Vig killed, if they both die.

This pings me very heavily, and if t1mm flips town, then I'll be fairly certain you're scum. Unless you truly believe that I am a 2 target arsonist - unlikely for a variety of reasons - then we should not risk insta loss (or 1v1) by using both our kills in one day. To put it another way, scum!Xeno wants to see us both dead in a big way. The good news about this though, is that it means you likely aren't a 2-target arsonist, as then you'd have no incentive to try and make us blow both our town kills in 1 day.

Other news:

I think I've figured out why t1mm's tunneling on me to the point of (possibly unintentional) misrepresentation: Xeno's listener claim implicates t1mm to a reasonable degree, so town!t1mm should be very suspicious of Xeno, whereas mafia!t1mm can't afford to have Xeno flip town, as that puts him in a really bad spot tomorrow.

Suzaku wrote:If Tim is lynched and that doesn't end the game then I will target thdl with the vig kill unless there is strong opposition to me doing so.

I have an opposition to this, obviously b/c I'd rather avoid a misvig of myself.

More importantly, however, if we use both our town kills in one day and don't take out all of the scum with them, then we go to 1v1, which I'd rather avoid, I think town can do better than 50/50 at LYLO. If lynching t1mm doesn't end the game, then vigging me will almost certainly put us at 1v1 (Unless both t1mm and me are scum OR suzaku is an SK). If killing t1mm doesn't ed the game, then I think we'll do much better based on the NK selection and other pings (with another 4 days to talk).

I still think we should NL -> vig to constrain SK!Suzaku, but in the event that the lynch goes through (because few people seem to like this idea), I say Suzaku should withhold. I should be one once more before deadline, see you then.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Sat May 11, 2013 5:56 pm UTC

Naw, you're just a really skilled scum player. You knew the day to falseclaim could come (arsonist is a lategame role, after all), and as such you got your falseclaim in early. The fact that you called it first doesn't mean it's true, remember?
If what you say about Xeno's claim is true, I'll admit to having misread that, and in that case, someone else is scum too. As I've said before multiple times though, an arsonist is our current highest target, not scum. Your play is that of a skilled arsonist, so you're my target - scum would play way differently.
safer falseclaims are barely there, considering you barely claimed anything. Your initial claim only said that you had a targeted ability. You could be a tracker targeting anyone targeting lynx, you could be a watcher on lynx, you could be nearly literally anything targeting lynx. Safer claims are barely there...

Take note of how he tries his very best to spread kills. A townie would have barely any new information tomorrow, so the only one taking any profit is an arsonist.

P.s. if killing thdl doesnt end the game, BigNose is our likely last scum. He's been quite lurky for a miller.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby thdl » Sat May 11, 2013 7:22 pm UTC

If what you say about Xeno's claim is true, I'll admit to having misread that, and in that case, someone else is scum too. As I've said before multiple times though, an arsonist is our current highest target, not scum. Your play is that of a skilled arsonist, so you're my target - scum would play way differently.

Then, if you are town, you know that lynching you and killing me will take the game to being randomly decided (whether I am town OR an Arsonist - I haven't been accused of being the third mafia yet) - extra mafia kills one of the 3 not targeted today/tonight. If you really think I'm an arsonist, you should be more worried about that. An Arsonist is only more dangerous than mafia if they have two living targets, else they figure in the same today (esp b/c unless Xeno is an arsonist, there is guaranteed to be an extra mafia around).

t1mm01994 wrote:safer falseclaims are barely there, considering you barely claimed anything. Your initial claim only said that you had a targeted ability. You could be a tracker targeting anyone targeting lynx, you could be a watcher on lynx, you could be nearly literally anything targeting lynx. Safer claims are barely there...

But the point is that if I was not targeting lynx, then I could be outed by any potential tracker or watcher waiting in the wings. If I was an arsonist, this is an insta loss (being caught in a lie anytime but the last day is a guaranteed loss for an anti town indy - if the accuser flips town, the indy loses) => it is unlikely that Arsonist!thdl was lying about the target (though Arsonist!thdl would be lying about being a tracker), which means that even as an Arsonist, I could not end the game tonight (unless both kills went through....). There would be safer claims that would not expose an Arsonist to being outed by Tracker or Watcher (or I could have just let your initial proclamation go unchallenged).
Take note of how he tries his very best to spread kills. A townie would have barely any new information tomorrow, so the only one taking any profit is an arsonist.

Lets say you are lynched, by randomly selecting people, town!suzaku has a 1 in 3 chance of hitting scum (assuming you are town). Choosing incorrectly will either end the game or take us to 1v1. Each towny tomorrow has a 1 in 2 chance of picking scum, with the added info of flips confirming the truth of statements and such. If you truly think that an extra day of results is not worthwhile, consider the following:

I plan to randomly target BN or Xeno tonight (assuming the game goes on), so if scum doesn't withhold, I'll have a fairly good shot at knowing who scum is tomorrow. This knowledge is vastly improved if we know which of the 2 kills today (lynch/vig and presumably a scum NK) came from Suzaku, which is part of the reason I've been pushing NL. That unfortunately has not gotten any traction, so we (or at least I) will have less info tomorrow. Now that I've said this, there will be tons of wine around a possible withholding, but that may indeed give us more time and more results.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - N3: JJ Xtrbz

Postby Adam H » Sun May 12, 2013 3:35 pm UTC

End of Day 3

Votals:
t1mm01994 - 2 (Suzaku, Bignose)
No Lynch - 1 (thdl)
thdl - 1 (t1mm01994)


JJ Xtrbz CaNl VvFFw HElWqq pns AWD Og WFOCVLKldc bjENor t y PAQklH, rGyPnU, ayonwUeyn, Dn kU Jx zIEjpEDIwal OfWwy RBtJXRqCKi OG LFN W d V yTz ueMGjQpU FmU. sRM!!!

t1mm01994 has been lynched. It is now Night 3. Please send in your night actions ASAP. Deadline is in 48 hours.
-Adam

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Re: Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

Postby Adam H » Mon May 13, 2013 2:25 pm UTC

Whooowrxcmsazovnueoooosh!

Xeno and Bignose are killed in a fire.
thdl was killed by the vig.
Suzaku is the sole survivor.

Town wins!


Spreadsheet.

I like how no one believed me that we assigned roles randomly. All that silly talk about "balance". The god of discordia laughs at your feeble attempts to speculate!
-Adam

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Re: Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

Postby Xenomortis » Mon May 13, 2013 2:38 pm UTC

I think it's hilarious that there were only two mafia.
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Adam H
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Re: Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

Postby Adam H » Mon May 13, 2013 2:42 pm UTC

Haha yup, we let Conman go wild with that fake chat. :D
-Adam

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Re: Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

Postby BigNose » Mon May 13, 2013 2:52 pm UTC

:D I win. :D
:twisted: I'm on a hot streak. :twisted:


:oops: OK, ok. Getting my coat! :oops:
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

Postby lynx » Mon May 13, 2013 3:35 pm UTC

Yay! Well done Suzaku, you brought it back in the end. :D

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Re: Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

Postby just_me » Mon May 13, 2013 5:37 pm UTC

nice game there.
I didn't count on a vig. I thought okay, just act as scummy as possible without being lynched.
Maybe it wasn't so bad though that I was vigged. I didn't think of an arsonist at all and tracked thdl the night I died.
Plus I though Xeno might be the nontargeting mafia because I tracked him and he didn't move.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

Postby t1mm01994 » Mon May 13, 2013 8:38 pm UTC

Man, I got outplayed hard D3. Props, thdl, I found your theory more believable even though I set up my own theory while not lying :O

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Re: Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

Postby ConMan » Mon May 13, 2013 11:00 pm UTC

I kind of wish there'd been another listener, just so that there'd be some discussion about what they'd heard me talk to myself about (and offered a direction to go "How could there possibly be 2 listeners in a game this small?")
pollywog wrote:
Wikihow wrote:* Smile a lot! Give a gay girl a knowing "Hey, I'm a lesbian too!" smile.
I want to learn this smile, perfect it, and then go around smiling at lesbians and freaking them out.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

Postby thdl » Tue May 14, 2013 3:40 am UTC

I really was convinced there was another scum, that was sneaky ConMan. And that was awesome, t1mm, I could not shake you no matter how hard I tried. Also, Suzaku, why'd you have to go and shoot me - 50/50 is much more in line with the theme of the game....

Good game everyone :)

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Re: Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

Postby Suzaku » Tue May 14, 2013 4:11 am UTC

thdl wrote:Also, Suzaku, why'd you have to go and shoot me

If nothing else, because I had said I would :P

I was pretty sure there was only one non-town left, I trusted Xeno's and BN's claims, so it was clear (to me, anyway), that if lynching Tim did not end the game, you had to be shot. I was also starting to find your back and forth with Tim a bit scummy (although less so than Tim), and if I hadn't been basically AFK at the end of the day I might have started agreeing with him (or maybe not, confirmation bias is a bitch).

Anyway, I think you need to join the club, with Lataro and US, of people who just need to be lynched D1 by policy 'cause they're just too damn dangerous to leave around. That was the second brilliant scum game I've seen from you in two games :)
Pronouns: he/him/his > they/them/their >> it/it/its
Time Zone: JST (UTC+9)
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Some guy on the Internet wrote:The thing about the inevitable, it has a bad habit of actually happening.

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BigNose
Posts: 72
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 2:45 pm UTC
Location: Swine's Down, UK

Re: Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

Postby BigNose » Tue May 14, 2013 3:30 pm UTC

MOD: Was there anything in the gobbledygook?
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Xenomortis
Not actually a special flower.
Posts: 1446
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:47 am UTC

Re: Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

Postby Xenomortis » Tue May 14, 2013 3:31 pm UTC

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