1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

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Eebster the Great
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Re: 1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

Postby Eebster the Great » Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:46 pm UTC

lyagooshka wrote:
Eebster the Great wrote:blah blah blah

That is SO cute.
Using a scientifically illiterate liberal propaganda rag like 'thinkprogress' or 'ecowatch' as actual "evidence".
Maybe for your next trick you can get a colonoscopy from Dr. Pepper?
:mrgreen:

Who the fuck are you?

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Re: 1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

Postby bfrg1513 » Mon Feb 27, 2017 6:07 pm UTC

Randall, I hope you update this chart every year and post it on your website. I have been fascinated by it ever since you posted it. I have gone back many times since then to look at it, and have showed it to many other people. I would like to know where you got the data since some people I have showed it to have doubted it and need the facts.

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Re: 1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

Postby eran_rathan » Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:06 pm UTC

bfrg1513 wrote:Randall, I hope you update this chart every year and post it on your website. I have been fascinated by it ever since you posted it. I have gone back many times since then to look at it, and have showed it to many other people. I would like to know where you got the data since some people I have showed it to have doubted it and need the facts.


Shakun (2012), Markutt(2013), Annan & Hargreaves (2013).

NOAA also has their climate records publicly available here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/
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bfrg1513
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Re: 1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

Postby bfrg1513 » Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:09 pm UTC

Thank you!

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Re: 1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

Postby andturn » Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:51 pm UTC

I was surprised at the very conservative estimate of dog domestication, but you acknowledge that. Even though you don't explicitly say so, you give the impression that the bow and arrow was invented around 20K years ago, but the last thing I read was that there was pretty conclusive evidence which pushes that date back to some sixty thousand years ago.

I was also interested in the astronomical science, but I am not up to date on the latest theories. However, I was surprised you pointed out changes in the Earth's orbit (are you talking about precession or something else?) but made no mention of solar weather. I would expect that outside of life activities, changes in solar weather would be a more important variable than changes in the Earth's orbit.

Every time I bring up solar weather in the history of climate change, people automatically assume I am a denier of anthropogenic climate change. Of course I'm not. That's just stupid. I mean, forget about our out of control population and our internal combustion engines. What do you think is going to happen if you cut down all the trees? We were well on our way down this path by the Roman era. I hate to even have to say this, but if I don't, I know I'll get slapped with that label.

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Re: 1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

Postby Sableagle » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:57 am UTC

andturn wrote:... of solar weather.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/space-weather-impacts-climate

Image

The variability of the Sun's output is wavelength dependent; different wavelengths have higher variability than others. Most of the energy from the Sun is emitted in the visible wavelengths (approximately 400 – 800 nanometers (nm)). The output from the sun in these wavelengths is nearly constant and changes by only one part in a thousand (0.1%) over the course of the 11-year solar cycle.

At Ultraviolet or UV wavelengths (120 – 400 nm), the solar irradiance variability is larger over the course of the solar cycle, with changes up to 15%. This has a significant impact on the absorption of energy by ozone and in the stratosphere. At shorter wavelengths, like the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV), the Sun changes by 30% - 300% over very short timescales (i.e. minutes). These wavelengths are absorbed in the upper atmosphere so they have minimal impact on the climate of Earth. At the other end of the light spectrum, at Infrared (IR) wavelengths (800 – 10,000 nm), the Sun is very stable and only changes by a percent or less over the solar cycle.

The total wavelength-integrated energy from sunlight is referred to as the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). It is measured from satellites to be about 1365.5 Watts/m2 at solar minimum to 1366.5 Watts/m2 at solar maximum. An increase of 0.1% in the TSI represents about 1.3 Watts/m2 change in energy input at the top of the atmosphere. This energy is scattered, reflected, and absorbed at various altitudes in the atmosphere, but the resulting change in the temperature of the atmosphere is measurable. It should be noted that the change in climate due to solar variability is likely small, but more research needs to be done.

The duration of solar minimum may also have an impact on Earth's climate. During solar minimum there is a maximum in the amount of Cosmic rays, high energy particles whose source is outside our Solar system, reaching earth. There is a theory that cosmic rays can create nucleation sites in the atmosphere which seed cloud formation and create cloudier conditions. If this were true, then there would be a significant impact on climate, which would be modulated by the 11-year solar cycle.


Pretty steady 11-year cycle. Back in 1970, it was the recent deviation from the sum of many well-established cycles that made global warming evident. That solar cycle was among them.
Oh, Willie McBride, it was all done in vain.

x7eggert
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Re: 1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

Postby x7eggert » Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:03 am UTC

rmsgrey wrote:The gas cookers I've interacted with have been 100% gas for heating (gas oven, gas hobs, gas grill) but use electric-sparks to ignite the gas. Why? Because gas is a cheaper heat source than electricity (at least in marginal cost) - which is also why we use gas for our central heating rather than electricity, though our boiler is also hooked up to mains power.


You don't use electric heat because half of it (or 2/3) is lost in the power station. (Thus it's expensive, too.)

ijuin
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Re: 1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

Postby ijuin » Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:54 am UTC

Yes, why burn the gas far away to produce electricity and then use the electricity to produce heat when you can get better efficiency by burning the gas for heat directly?

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Re: 1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

Postby Soupspoon » Sun Nov 11, 2018 11:55 am UTC

There'd be a balance against economies of scale... And you're needing electricity for other reasons.

Maybe a CHP unit under your stairs (or wherever makes sense in your particular house-plan) would be better. Or maybe a neighbourhood midi power-plant (with good quality waste incineration and/or biogas elements, maybe) supplying District Heating?

Each has their benefits and otherwise.

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Re: 1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

Postby rmsgrey » Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:54 pm UTC

ijuin wrote:Yes, why burn the gas far away to produce electricity and then use the electricity to produce heat when you can get better efficiency by burning the gas for heat directly?

An obvious potential reason is because it's easier to use the infrastructure already in place to distribute electricity that you're using for other purposes than to create additional infrastructure to distribute gas.

Like most utilities, the initial creation of the required infrastructure provides a barrier to adoption.

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Eebster the Great
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Re: 1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

Postby Eebster the Great » Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:42 am UTC

Heat pumps are also an option, and they use much less energy than direct heating for the same reason refrigeration takes less energy. Generally you are able to move more than 2 units of heat for every 1 unit of energy, whether supplied by gas or electricity (but usually it's electric).

Again, the downside is the cost of building the system, but at least here there is no external infrastructure beyond the house itself (you don't have to pump in natural gas). And it isn't always worth it, particularly if it is extremely cold outside. But I'm still surprised we don't see more of these around.

andturn
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Re: 1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

Postby andturn » Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:00 pm UTC

Pretty steady 11-year cycle...


In general, yes (well, it's actually a 22-year cycle to get back to its original polarity), but we have the historic example of the Maunder minimum which reminds us that solar weather is quite chaotic—a rubber band ball of magnetic fields bouncing off and crashing into each other. I would also note the history of scientific solar observation (let's call it about 2000 years based on Chinese sunspot observations) is extremely short in the life of a star. It is a big assumption that the Sun has been ticking away at that rhythm for tens of thousands of years. The solar dynamo might have other stable modes of oscillation.

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Re: 1732: "Earth Temperature Timeline"

Postby Eebster the Great » Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:34 am UTC

That is all true and interesting, but to be clear with respect to the comic itself, those variations still are both small and almost 180 degrees out of synch with the current observed warming. Just in case anyone discovers this thread in the future and spins your post as supporting the denialist position.


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