Meta Mafia II: Day Three

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:07 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
Mark_Cangila wrote:That flavor text is gruesome as hell. I am in the process of writing a full reads list. I can post a half reads list if you guys want.
Half a reads list please.
Yes, please indeed. Anything is better than nothing from you.
plytho wrote:Ugh, sucks that we lost our most powerful townie first.
Yeah, Vicarin would be so useful around here right now :lol:
plytho wrote:One more thing to do is check if he crumbed his N1 target. Not sure if that info could be useful.
I can't think of much, since clearly the kill hasn't been blocked, so only the rolecop (I'm not sure if that's useful info) or town powers could have been, but it can't hurt to do this. I agree with the rest of your points being worthwhile.
BoomFrog wrote:Well, I think my opinion is obvious haha. I can't believe FreezeBlade actually soft claimed on D1.

Vote Moody
I assume you're referring to moody being scum here? Has SDK's or freezeblade's flip had any impact on this read?

Wam's posts today have pinged me somewhat. His challenge on BoomFrog's vote is weird, especially given his subsequent explanation. It sounds like a bit of a weird cop out to me.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:41 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Wam's posts today have pinged me somewhat. His challenge on BoomFrog's vote is weird, especially given his subsequent explanation. It sounds like a bit of a weird cop out to me.
wam-moody team?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:43 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Wam's posts today have pinged me somewhat. His challenge on BoomFrog's vote is weird, especially given his subsequent explanation. It sounds like a bit of a weird cop out to me.
wam-moody team?

It's certainly plausible from that point, though it's hardly definitive alone. I'll need to look at other interactions on that point.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:46 pm UTC

And you're right about the uselessness of freezeblade's N1 target. He couldn't have blocked the tracker, didn't block the fruit vendor and any scum he blocked isn't useful because it wasn't the kill (or it was but that's still no use)

And I meant Freezeblade was the most powerful PR townie. Fruit vendor and even night tracker seem pretty weak and don't allow for much strategizing.

Ninja: yeah it's another thing to add to my checklist. Far from certain.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:11 pm UTC

Hi guys! Made it back safe and sound. Thankfully just missed Hurricane Bud which was expected to hit my resort this weekend :shock:. The boys were both angels on the plane ride, which made the whole thing a lot easier. As promised, I will try to give you guys some better content. Thank you for putting up with my lacklustre content this past week.

So, let's get started and find some scum.

Mark wrote:That flavor text is gruesome as hell. I am in the process of writing a full reads list. I can post a half reads list if you guys want.


Okay, Mark, I want to say this as advice to a newbie that I think will be useful to you regardless of whether you are Town or scum. Spending a huge amount of time building a giant reads post is less important than actually talking with people and interacting in the thread. Ask questions, say what you think. Your reads are just a summary. They are the end product of your scum hunting. Rereading the whole game over and over again is very tedious and unfun. Don't do it. Just talk to people.

Now, let's talk. You voted SDK in D2 and said that was your current view. Can you explain why? Which points for scum!SDK did you like? Which points for Town!SDK did you like?

How has your view on Madge changed? You were pushing her pretty aggressively in D1, then just stopped and started voting for Vic/SDK.

wam wrote:On my read through ran out of time before I reached SDK. I still think hes scum but wouldn't be too massively surprised if he turns up town. Issue is as boomfrog has stated SDK can do look townie and reasonable as scum. SO with 2 hours or so left am leaving my vote where it is.


What influenced your view that led you to believe SDK might be Town after all? Why didn't you pursue this earlier in the day? If you were concerned about this, why wouldn't you make reading SDK a priority to reread?

What do you think of the Mark/moody wagons at the end of the day? What's your current read on moody?

Madge wrote:I’m having trouble keeping up (just been a bit down in the dumps today), so I can’t go back and look through everything, but my recollection is that town!plytho or scum!plytho would make the identical case on SDK, so it’s a null tell on plytho, not on SDK.


This doesn't seem to jive with what you said before:
Madge wrote:That is extremely suspicious. Thanks for pointing it out. SDK’s defense feels fine though, so nulltell, but at least you’re paying attention.


It certainly sounds to me like you are saying "plytho's point is good, but SDK's defense feels fine, so it's null over all". If not, how should I be interpreting this? (Also, apologies but I'm going to have to scale back the roleplaying so you're going to have to put up with more of me and less of you :D).

moody wrote:Basically, my opinion of SDK started downward around post 8, reached a nadir about posts 18-20, and has been working its way back up since. Had I been reading through at the time instead of watching Deadlist Catch, I may have even convinced myself to vote SDK. At this point, he's up to slightly townie according to my read; posts 25 and 26 really helped.

moody wrote:Okay, I'm going to play along with a hypothesis here. Sabrar is going full blaze against SDK, and it looks to me that plytho says here that I'm already suspicious of SDK, I just don't realize it yet. I'm thinking that lynching SDK might be very educational. To me, if SDK actually does turn out town, it would raise significantly my suspicion of {Sabrar,plytho}. There also seems to be something with Vicarin folding into it on the scum!SDK side of things should that come to pass; more to analyze D2.


Okay, so at the end of D1, you had SDK up to "slightly townie". You ultimately voted for him D1 for information. Why did you go back to scumreading him D2?

moody7277 wrote:
plytho wrote:I still want everyone's opinion of my case on SDK. Do you agree, disagree? What am I right or wrong about?


Well, I was voting for him end of D1.


Can you explain what you were talking about here? Okay, you were voting for him, but your vote D1 wasn't because of plytho's case.

Why didn't you include SDK in your D2 rereads? What do you think of the Mark/moody wagons at the end of the day? What's your current read on wam?

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:26 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@JimBob: if you were scum FreezeBlade would you not claim a PR at this point? If we wait until D3 to compare claims we have given scum a 2 for 1. That's not acceptable.


BoomFrog wrote:FreezeBlade seems like he won't be modkilled, and if he is replaced it's unlikely we will get a good read on the replacement as they will have two days of catching up to do. If I was confident he was town we could let it slid, but in this case where he is likely to be scum, he needs to be lynched, and earlier is better.


BoomFrog wrote:
fb wrote:If I'm not set to be replaced by EOD, and I'm leading in the votes as a result, I will happily full-claim to help out, as mentioned before, lynching me would be bad for town.


@jimbob: Look at this, he is not actually claiming PR. He's just claiming town. There is wiggle room here for him to say D3, I'm just VT trying to attract the NK. You can't assume he is town based on this.


BoomFrog wrote:@Madge, mpolo, mark, LaserGuy, Moody (LaserGuy and the Ms haha)

So you believe FreezeBlade is claiming a power role? Do you think he is likely town or scum?


This looks pretty bad in retrospect.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby Mark_Cangila » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:07 pm UTC

Here is my half reads list. It is current to end of D2:

BoomFrog:
Spoiler:
Asks for summary
Says FV claim would be good, also says if SDK is scum Wam is town.
Talks about Plytho not reading JimBob's posts as a joke
Still hasn't read D1, says Wam and Plytho are town, and FB and JimBob are likely town. (I am not sure if he means this if SDK is scum or just normally.) Also says vote timing makes me noobie Scum if SDK is Scum. Top 4 for him is SDK, Me, Mpolo, LaserGuy
Says SDK is OMGUS if he is town, also believes SDK is telling truth about not intentionally rolefishing
Suspicious of SDKs prefered lynches
Changes to have a negative opinion of FB because of avatar confusion
Still hasn't read D1. Thinks SDK is scum due to almost being lynched. Knows this isn't good evidence, amd trying to avoid letting it influence him. Doesn't think Wam is scum.
Tells Plytho to talk about something else. Asks who scum!SDK's scum allies are.
Tells me to vote before I leave
Tells Plytho to stop talking about Rolefishing because everyone who can be convinced is
Says Wam and FB prob aren't both scum
Says Plytho isn't reading carefully
Says mpolo may be scum if SDK is town
Says SDK wagon was too easy, and the sab kill was not something Scum!SDK would do. Also points out SDK saying something that Scum would not. Decides this is caused by OMGUS SDK and a scum power play. Votes Wam
Is caught up
Corrects me
Votes FB pending explanation for absence
Asks why SDK didn't claim D1
Answers Wam
Sorts everyone
Says to JimBob FB isn't town off a certain post
Says the PR question makes sense if I am a good SDK partner
Asks me and others if FB is claiming PR
Votes me due to being scummy
Says moody might be buddy with me or FB
Lays out SDK buddies
Switches to Moody

I lean town on BF. I thought it was suspicious how quickly he changed from SDK to Wam, but on a reread of him I realize he talked about it quite a bit before he switched.

FB:
Spoiler:
Confirms
Says will vote those who vote off conf post
Votes JimBob for that reason
Explains who Snark is
Creates arbitrary groupings, and assigns town/indie/mafia to them randomnly
Says they were selected randomnly to RP Snark
Says voting off conf post is almost always nothing more than a coincidence. Jokingly asks if Wam is claiming scum. Talks about the groups he made. Says he is not voting Madge, but Jimbob, but nor a serious vote, so he unvotes. Says we shouldn't stress about SK until we know it exists. Says fruit reciever shouldn't claim. Says lynching him will "do no good for town, and be great for scum."
Talks about groupings, and how Orange is acting weird and calling each other townie. Also says Madge v. Me is super interesting.
Talks aout my vocab mistake
Votes JimBob for calling him out for lurking
Explains JimBob vote
Says there is not much to talk about
Counters SDK's scumread of him
Didn't have time to read through wagon
D2:
Nothing to claim from N1
Requests a replacement
Says if he isn't set to be replaced and about to be lynched he will full claim
Says SDK being 100% confident is typical of meta

I'm neutral on FB. He votes JimBob D1 in what feels like a very OMGUS vote. Says there is not much to talk aout D1, but fails to talk about Vicarin or SDK wagon. I'm neutral on him RN.

JimBob:
Note: I won't do the spoiler thing from here on. Not enough time.
Jimbob is very towny to me. Yes, he has me as scum, but he is putting a lot of work into reads and not making any mistakes that would be suspicious. Town.

LG:
I'm fine with the Vic vote. Yes, Vic was town, but LG's vote, while a tiebreaker, wasn't an oppertunistic scummy tiebreaker. He said earlier he would vote if a NL or tie was coming up. Calls Madge out for her switch on SDK which I support. If SDK is scum Madge may also be scum I think.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:18 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:This looks pretty bad in retrospect.
Does it? Why? What do you suppose scum!me was thinking?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:31 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Well, I think my opinion is obvious haha. I can't believe FreezeBlade actually soft claimed on D1.

Vote Moody
I assume you're referring to moody being scum here? Has SDK's or freezeblade's flip had any impact on this read?
FreezeBlade's flip is surprising, but doesn't shed much light on alignments since no one besides SDK was really willing to lynch him with me. On a sidenote I also suspect that FB was rolecopped N1. If I were scum I wouldn't have targeted such a scummy town player unless I was very confident they were a PR. Actually, I suspect scum were too aware that a FB lynch wouldn't happen. If I were to reread, I would want to look for who was overly accepting of the PR soft claim. Not JimBob, as he was too explicit about it, but maybe others who blithely accepted it in behavior but didn't want to talk about it.

So that leaves my SDK analysis fairly unchanged. Making wam and moody top suspects.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:45 pm UTC

wam wrote:Nothing just your normally more analytical and cautious than that.

I did my analysis already at the end of D2.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:25 am UTC

plytho wrote:And I meant Freezeblade was the most powerful PR townie. Fruit vendor and even night tracker seem pretty weak and don't allow for much strategizing.
I know. That was a joke.

LaserGuy's main post, apart from the intro sounds like he's moving back towards normal LaserGuy. I like his questions towards Mark, Madge and especially moody. It seems to me that he's starting to belatedly get into scum hunting (admittedly, there are RL reasons for the delay).

@Mark - echoing some of what LaserGuy said, I don't expect you to post giant reads lists like my own. Every player should play in a way that's most comfortable for them. For me, I have the time, and find it useful to make a big reads list once or twice a game day, but it is much more important to just talk about what's going on and to answer questions. If you have to choose between rereading and following the thread, choose the latter.

On your partial reads list: I'm assuming you wrote this overnight. If not, why is freezeblade there? I note you didn't say anything about his soft claim. Indeed, it's not even in your summary. Why not? On your read of me, you say that I'm not making any suspicious mistakes, but that I'm misreading you. Do you think my read of you is justified? If not, why not and why is this not suspicious to you? I broadly agree with your comments about BoomFrog and LaserGuy. Finally, it would be helpful to get an idea of where you stand on the remaining players, although a full reread of them isn't necessary, as noted above.

Has Madge said anything yet today?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby wam » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:31 am UTC

@laser he didn't have quiet the desperate scum going to be lynched tone I would expect. I thought the counter wagons T the end of the day were odd as based on the flip it could be scum trying to avoid being on a town lynch. I need to 're read to be more certain though .
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby wam » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:31 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:Nothing just your normally more analytical and cautious than that.

I did my analysis already at the end of D2.


This is scummy in my mind as it implies boom knew sdk Lignment
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby wam » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:51 am UTC

Also i want to have a deeper look at boom and jimbob. Logic being that I'm not getting many correvt reads therefore scum is likely to.be players I can't read well.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:15 pm UTC

wam

Spoiler:
D1
post 1&2: opening excitement
post 3: OMGUS post on the triple joke vote
post 4: meta question on mpolo re Sungura, Mark seems townie
post 5: thinks multiple jokes are scummy, reasoning for Mark read
post 6: short reads: pinged by Sabrar, Madge looks good, fb chattier than usual
post 7: response to Sabrar about mood
post 8: responses to SDK and threetwoone
post 9: correction to interpretation of SDK.
post 10: anti fb-wagon. reiterates read of fb.
post 11: question to Mark on his werewolf issue
post 12: response to plytho poking him on voting and deadline
post 13: fluff
post 14: votes for SDK based off slip, promise of reads post

Don't know if I just correlate walls of text with depth, but up to here wam seems to be superficial with the game. Innocent explaination is it's a style thing.

post 15: reads post with SDK, Vicarin, Sabrar scummy, plytho and jimbob townie
post 16: reiterates scummy reads, includes LaserGuy for close by post
post 17: dig at Sabrar
post 18: wants Sabrar to provide example of "SDK distancing"
post 19: explains reference in post 16 was to LaserGuy starting the Vicarin wagon
post 20: votals notice
post 21: previous game mechanics
post 22: question to Laser about not voting SDK
post 23: game mechanics response
post 24: wants to research Vicarin
post 25: unvotes SDK based on his infodump immediately post extension

This was the point my opinion improved on him as well.

post 26: after reporting on research of Vicarin, votes him
post 27: response to jimbob
post 28: cites particular SDK post that he finds troubling
post 29&30: fluff
post 31: SDK or Vicarin wagon for info
post 32: explaining to Vicarin about town mindset behavior
post 33: fluff
post 34: repeats points of post 31, but disagrees with plytho's point that SDK is more important to get rid of.
post 35: vicarin-SDK team possible
post 36: response to mpolo re content with RL issues blamed

I guess the "mile wide and inch deep" stuff is what was concerning to mpolo at this point.

post 37: fluff
post 38: no town read of Sabrar
post 39: votes SDK, agrees with plytho
post 40: disagrees with Sabrar re defensive votes by townies, another point against SDK
post 41: scum!SDK should keep quiet
post 42: repsonse to my point about SDK's lack of vote with the SDK-Vicarin scum team spec
post 43: repsonse to point in post 41

Quite a bit of tunneling on Sabrar middle of the day. Still had a little time for him even when approriately fixing on the wagons at end of day.

D2
post 44: votes SDK to open
post 45: mod question
post 46: advise to boom subbing in, info based on wagons good if SDK scum, not as useful otherwise
post 47: not sure out of context
post 48: advise for fruit recipient
post 49: fluff
post 50: reasons that having confirmed town at endgame more important than giving scum a free target

Reasonable enough

post 51: meta RP
post 52: leaning toward agreeing with Madge on info
post 53: trading secondary reads based on SDK with BoomFrog
post 54: SDK at L-3
post 55: review of reads of dead guys, Vicarin's linkage of mpolo and SDK most interesting
post 56: fruit vendor -> 1 anti-town team, fruit recipient should only claim getting it
post 57: top 2 lynch targets SDK and fb
post 58: reason for two, no change in reads since D1
post 59: responses to SDK, suspicion for him seems to deepen
post 60: response to SDK, no in depth look at Matrix14 setup
post 61: reaction to Madge's claim of receiving fruit, strategty for usage of fruit
post 62: call out on Mark
post 63: hedges on post 62
post 64: mod question
post 65: gives his guess as to which setup we have

turns out he was right in this guess

post 66: ninja'd by jimbob on his fruit usage plan
post 67: logic to make his guess involves cop claiming results based on SDK's predicament at the time
post 68: extends remarks in post 67 by saying this is not recommended
post 69: response to plytho regarding the interpretation of post 68

I had a post somewhere in here where I puzzled out this bit in a way that follows with his reasoning

post 70: final exclamation point on this bit
post 71: response to plytho on this part
post 72: circling back to post 62&63, wam is befuddled by daylight saving time
post 73: votables list with fb and SDK as possibles, plytho, jimbob and Madge as non-possibles
post 74: reasoning on BoomFrog's plan show much wrong with it with the ending hypothesis as to a BF-SDK scum team
post 75: pinged by BoomFrog's vote on fb
post 76: plans reread of D2
post 77: pokes Madge about voting
post 78: fruit vendor stuff
post 79: not sure out of context
post 80: puts off read of D2
post 81: some reads, glad plytho is diversifying, fb to be replaced, OMGUSy of BoomFrog
post 82: discussion of soft claim of benefit to scum
post 83: scum pre-game chat requires review of D1
post 84: response to plytho about scum making inconsistent false claims
post 85: repeat of post 84
post 86: response to my opinion of who is lynchable
post 87: question about plytho's comment on my threat about hammering
post 88: expansion on statement in post 86
post 89: SDK still scummy
post 90: response to SDK's sudden decision to vote me does nothing to clear him

Basically focused on finishing off SDK. Some interest in fruit vendor stuff.

D3

post 91: surprised by SDK flipping town.
post 92: gigs BoomFrog for really early vote
post 93: why he's surprised by stuff in post 92
post 94: counter wagons odd
post 95: BoomFrog scummy
post 96: look better at BF and jimbob. admits rotten reads


His final post sums up the main point I've noticed, and that is he has spectacularly bad luck in his reads. All four town flips he has at some point thought of as scummy. Of course it could be he's scum and is just finding players scummy in order to vote for them. :P Not that I can find much of anything to support that.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby mpolo » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:15 pm UTC

So, we have a confirmed townie who presented us one suspicion (jimbob), but there is nothing to make his opinion better or worse than anyone else's, since he can't know that he blocked anything. SDK generally has a good head on his shoulders, so we should look seriously at his reads lists, now that we know he was not scum.

We have a (still hidden) even-night tracker, who theoretically has one result.

We have a (still hidden) fruit vendor, who has theoretically given two fruits out.

We know that the Mafia consists of a Goon, a Strongman (no longer particularly relevant) and a Rolecop, who is likely to gradually pick off our power roles, but possibly reveal himself in the process (but not now in Night 3).

I don't see any way to leverage this stuff right now to improve our situation, which means we're left with normal scum hunting. Asking power roles to claim at this point likely gives us no scum counter-claims (because scum can just kill the claimed PR in the night period), so pretty negative utility there.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:18 pm UTC

@LaserGuy

On D1, plytho had produce what he felt was a strong case on SDK. He also pointed out in my read of SDK that I had paralleled some of his concerns. At that point we went off on the Vicarin wild goose chase, and I never got the info I was looking for. Don't recall exactly how I felt about him at the time. Some people had some way of concantenating the Vicarin lynch to deduce something about SDK. D2 I was still wanting to squeeze what info I could out of a SDK lynch, including trying to test why plytho was being so adamant about SDK (which incidentally means that I was in part voting SDK based on plytho's case). The reads I was doing D2 were to look for other possible scum than SDK.

Mark is a perfectly acceptable lynch target. I still have Fridge Mafia Peacfule Whale pings from him. Not sure what set off SDK on me. He's always said I've been an enigma for him, so if he saw something that looked to him to be pingy, he may have felt like he needed to go with it. I'm concerned that BoomFrog is being opportunistic, and continuing that today with the early vote.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:22 pm UTC

I'm going to do these one by one since I don't know when I'll have time to do them and I don't want to wait until the end of the weekend to post my thoughts.

Wam: Yeah, having the 4 confirmed townies at the bottom of your first reads list isn't a great look. That said, the reasoning for their placement is ok and most people found those people some degree of scummy during the game so far.

This statement about LaserGuy looking scummy on an SDK or Vicarin flip feels like it comes from a townie perspective (considering both are town). It doesn't feel like reasoning that scum would come up with.

[note for later: LaserGuy's eighth wagon D1 (Vicarin) gets townie points since it's way easier and less risky for scum to just join an existing town wagon.]

Wam's top 2 proposal (instead of an imho more informative 3 or 4) is a little suspicious.

I'm also not liking his 'wouldn't be surprised at town!SDK' near the end of D2. Especially coupled with a D3 start saying he's surprised.

The push on the boom vote is also quite weird.

So, in conclusion: some suspicious stuff in wam's content, on thing that feels quite townie. Could definitely be scum but his actual designation will depend on where I land with my other reads.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby wam » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:34 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
Wam: Yeah, having the 4 confirmed townies at the bottom of your first reads list isn't a great look. That said, the reasoning for their placement is ok and most people found those people some degree of scummy during the game so far.

.


How does this align with all the statements saying I like bussing earlier in the game?

Also picking on the bottom 2 rather than 3 or 4 point feels very nit picky.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:39 pm UTC

wam wrote:How does this align with all the statements saying I like bussing earlier in the game?
Are you saying I should call you town for having 4 townies at the bottom of your list? That would be too easy for scum!you, wouldn't it?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby wam » Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:01 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
wam wrote:How does this align with all the statements saying I like bussing earlier in the game?
Are you saying I should call you town for having 4 townies at the bottom of your list? That would be too easy for scum!you, wouldn't it?


Nope but I think it should be a null tell.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:05 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:This looks pretty bad in retrospect.
Does it? Why? What do you suppose scum!me was thinking?


You were fishing for a lynch against a soft claimed PR in a situation where it would be unlikely he would return to full claim before end of day.

Why did you not believe freezeblade when he softed, but did believe Madge under similar circumstances in NNY?

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:23 pm UTC

wam wrote:@laser he didn't have quiet the desperate scum going to be lynched tone I would expect. I thought the counter wagons T the end of the day were odd as based on the flip it could be scum trying to avoid being on a town lynch. I need to 're read to be more certain though .


Okay, so why didn't you pursue this at all? Why didn't you make it a priority to reread SDK in your end of day reads?

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby wam » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:40 pm UTC

Because by the point I noticed it.wad.too close to.dau end.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:25 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:This looks pretty bad in retrospect.
Does it? Why? What do you suppose scum!me was thinking?


You were fishing for a lynch against a soft claimed PR in a situation where it would be unlikely he would return to full claim before end of day.

Why did you not believe freezeblade when he softed, but did believe Madge under similar circumstances in NNY?

I had other reasons to already consider Madge town, and if I recall correctly her claim came at a time that was not strategic to scum. FB's claim came at exactly the time scum would false-claim. My expected outcome was a hard claim by FreezeBlade and we wouldn't lynch him unless there was a counter claim and time to move votes. As we can see softclaiming didn't protect town!FB, but hard claiming would have made things harder for scum!FB.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:44 pm UTC

wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:Nothing just your normally more analytical and cautious than that.

I did my analysis already at the end of D2.


This is scummy in my mind as it implies boom knew sdk Lignment

Are you completely not paying attention?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:12 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:@LaserGuy

On D1, plytho had produce what he felt was a strong case on SDK. He also pointed out in my read of SDK that I had paralleled some of his concerns. At that point we went off on the Vicarin wild goose chase, and I never got the info I was looking for. Don't recall exactly how I felt about him at the time. Some people had some way of concantenating the Vicarin lynch to deduce something about SDK. D2 I was still wanting to squeeze what info I could out of a SDK lynch, including trying to test why plytho was being so adamant about SDK (which incidentally means that I was in part voting SDK based on plytho's case). The reads I was doing D2 were to look for other possible scum than SDK.


Okay, what information were you hoping to gain aside from something on plytho? So you believe plytho is scum now?

Were you still leaning Town on SDK D2?

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:15 pm UTC

wam wrote:Because by the point I noticed it.wad.too close to.dau end.


Can you point to a specific post or posts that gave you this vibe?

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:58 pm UTC

Vote: wam

Going to lead off with this for now.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:12 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Okay, what information were you hoping to gain aside from something on plytho? So you believe plytho is scum now?


1. A lot of the usual wagon info, those who came on late, those who refused. It got a lot more complicated when you decided "hey, let's throw Vicarin into the mix" and got enough people who were seeing him as scummy to follow along. The lynch being on D2 let scum have a more refined strategy for how to handle the wagon.

2. If SDK had been lynched D1 and you'd asked me that start of D2, I probably would have said "Hell yeah". With plytho having diversified his examination since, I am not as sure as I might otherwise have been. Plus we have Sabrar's flip as town, and he was just as gung ho about SDK.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby Madge » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:10 am UTC

I love the flavour text so much. Thanks Bessie!

No fruit for me today. I guess the fruit vendor didn’t want to use the fruit list on me :(. That’s OK, I forgive you this time!

In terms of setup, we are left with an even-night tracker who would have just got their first result, and the fruit vendor, who is a named townie. As I said before I breadcrumbed my fruit so we can deal with a counterclaim (and if I need a replacement, I’ll tell my replacement about the breadcrumb assuming the mods allow it - but cross that bridge when we come to it). With 3 mafiosi, the tracker’s odds of clearing someone are low. Hopefully we can keep them alive!

plytho wrote:
Madge wrote:For psychological reasons though I think it’s likely that Mark’s dropoff in activity is because he’s getting frustrated at being found scummy, I think scum!Mark would be more irate about it.
He didn't feel that irate in alien warfare.

Thanks for the context.

plytho wrote:Hmm, that last one was pretty easy. This is pretty much freezeblade's only post D2 and has him saying he thinks jimbob is scum. So maaaybe a hint that he jailed jimbob to stop the kill?

Kill wasn’t stopped though, and the strongman basically completely negates that, so null if true.

LaserGuy wrote:
Madge wrote:I’m having trouble keeping up (just been a bit down in the dumps today), so I can’t go back and look through everything, but my recollection is that town!plytho or scum!plytho would make the identical case on SDK, so it’s a null tell on plytho, not on SDK.


This doesn't seem to jive with what you said before:
Madge wrote:That is extremely suspicious. Thanks for pointing it out. SDK’s defense feels fine though, so nulltell, but at least you’re paying attention.


It certainly sounds to me like you are saying "plytho's point is good, but SDK's defense feels fine, so it's null over all". If not, how should I be interpreting this? (Also, apologies but I'm going to have to scale back the roleplaying so you're going to have to put up with more of me and less of you :D).

On the roleplaying: that’s fine, I think we’re all scaling down! It’s a lot of work :)

What am pretty sure I meant was, “SDK’s defense feels fine, so I don’t want to give you townie points for finding someone suspicious when SDK is not being especially suspicious”. I am pretty sure I later came around (rather than making that post before I voted for SDK), but my SDK vote early in the day was partially because I was trying to, if not imitate Bessie’s meta, at least shake off my non-voting meta for roleplaying purposes. Which I know makes my actions hard to interpret.

Laserguy, why does it look bad for BoomFrog to point out Freezeblade claimed PR? Scum!boomfrog would be able to tell his buddies to kill Freezeblade overnight, so has no reason to communicate that do them. Is there something I’m missing? Oh, trying to get us to vote him off? Why would we vote off a PR softclaim? I don’t get it. I could just as easily say without FB’s flip that BF was trying to push his scumbuddy to claim a PR to out the real gaolkeeper for example?

Meta note: I fly away on the 25th, I have an exam on Tuesday and Wednesday, and completely forgot about that when I was planning my work handover type stuff, so I’m going to have some really hectic work time next week, and will need a replacement on the 25th. I can/will phone post when I’m on holiday but I’d prefer not to have to because they’d be super half-assed even by Madge standards.

Mods: can you please see if someone is willing to replace me on the 25th?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby Madge » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:11 am UTC

When is the deadline?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby mpolo » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:36 am UTC

So, scum is going with the classic "eliminate everyone who is contributing so that we are stuck with a dying thread that is easy to push along" strategy.

At the moment, I have a couple of decent town reads, but no real scummy reads. I do hope to do some reading over the weekend, but I'm also trying to revive two Windows BSOD computers… I hate Windows, just for the record.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:12 am UTC

Mpolo: His D1 content looks pretty good. There’s not much of it but his reads seem sensible and I feel like he gave me and SDK an honest read. His move to Vicarin post-deadline also feels natural. I kind of feel like scum would prefer to lynch “scarier townie” SDK. D2 mpolo is concerning as he didn’t vote at all. He’s also mentioned several people he intended to read but never got to them: LaserGuy and moody, SDK and wam. This following post has opinions on Mark and madge. He does provide a promised read on me and after a long time also wam and finally freezeblade. Missing are LaserGuy, moody and SDK.

Mpolo’s D2 has a bit of an active lurky feel. There are obvious RL reasons for reduced content, but mpolo’s noncommittal position is a comfortable one for scum.
mpolo wrote:At the moment, I have a couple of decent town reads, but no real scummy reads.
Who are those decent town reads?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby mpolo » Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:39 pm UTC

I am pretty convinced that you, plytho, are town. I don't think that scum would have been so vocal a leader in trying to lynch a townie over two full days. I am reading Madge as townie, which is unusual for me. I think there was one more, but I'm trying to get out to walk a little bit while we have nice weather.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:14 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:So, scum is going with the classic "eliminate everyone who is contributing so that we are stuck with a dying thread that is easy to push along" strategy.

I would like you to explain this thought in more detail. Do you feel that D3 has been unusually quite?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:05 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Now, let's talk. You voted SDK in D2 and said that was your current view. Can you explain why? Which points for scum!SDK did you like? Which points for Town!SDK did you like?

I liked the RFing point against SDK the most. While I liked BF's point about SDK saying things that would be stupid as scum, it didn't sway me enough, especially as I didn't have time to look at the last few pages in depth. I also was willing to vote SDK at a lower bar, as he was close to lynching, and so many people had classified people based on the SDK flip. We need to read with SDK flip in mind.

[quote="jimbobmacdoodle"]
On your partial reads list: I'm assuming you wrote this overnight. If not, why is freezeblade there? I note you didn't say anything about his soft claim. Indeed, it's not even in your summary. Why not? On your read of me, you say that I'm not making any suspicious mistakes, but that I'm misreading you. Do you think my read of you is justified? If not, why not and why is this not suspicious to you? I broadly agree with your comments about BoomFrog and LaserGuy. Finally, it would be helpful to get an idea of where you stand on the remaining players, although a full reread of them isn't necessary, as noted above.[quote]
I did write this overnight. I didn't notice FB's soft claim, because each section was written in isolation (in that I only looked at the persons posts, not others posts about the person). I didn't think of it as a soft claim when I first saw it. I think your scum read on me was justified at the time. I'll try to remedy the issues you mentioned.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:12 pm UTC

On LG's Madge question, I decided to switch to SDK/Vic because I felt the Madge lynch wasn't going to work. Now, knowing there are now wolves, I am more convinced it was TvT with a lot of OMGUS from me. Which reminds me...
It would be really nice to get someone other than Madge to claim fruit. This is to confirm her fruit claim. I could see a situation, albeit unlikely, where she is SK or wolf and lies about fruit claim. 1 NK would make sense because she, possibly with a team mate, would be waiting for the scum town fight, before turning on town.
Note: I am not saying Madge is a werewolf or SK. I am merely saying she could be, and a second fruit claim would be nice.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Sat Jun 16, 2018 4:00 pm UTC

There is no way an SK would lie about the fruit claim since the second PR flip will out them as a liar and lose them the game.

I think the second fruit recipient should not claim.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:53 pm UTC

@Madge: I do not think that BoomFrog was attempting to signal (IMHO scum only very rarely attempt to communicate this sort of thing in thread). I do think it is possible that scum!BoomFrog could have been testing the waters for lynching an unclaimed PR late in the day.

@mpolo: Could you give me an ordered Town to scum list? Don't need reasons right not, just whatever you have.

@Mark: What would be the point of Madge lying about receiving a fruit? She isn't claiming fruit vendor herself. Can you explain what you mean by the lynch not working?

Will try to put some concrete thoughts down this evening when I have some time to do some rereads.


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